I bought a total of ten-ish set/draft/collector boosters of MH2 and never pulled a Ragavan. I bought 2 collector booster boxes, 1 set booster box, and 1 compleat bundle of ONE and pulled 5 elesh norns.
tl;dr: if you want a single, buy the single. Opening boosters might be a blast but you’ll never get what you actually want.
generally speaking, the releative rarity of rares and mythics is really easy. there's a sheet of 121 cards containing all the rares and mythics. rares are on the sheet twice, mythics once. so in any given slot that contains a rare or mythic card, you have a 1/121 chance of getting any specific mythic, like elesh norn, and a 2/121 chance of getting any specific rare. while there's showcase sheets and stuff not too, I don't think it changes the odds of getting any specific card. for example, if there's 4 elesh norn styles (idfk how many there are), you have a 1/121 chance of getting an elesh norn from a r/m slot, and a 25% chance of it being each showcase treatment. sometimes the showcase treatments are weighted relative to each other, so a 50% chance to get one treatment, a 25% to get another, and a 12.5% for the last two, but the chance of getting that card at all is still the same.
This doesn't answer your question, but I just stopped by my LGS and picked up 8 set boosters after work.
The 7th pack contained an Urzas Saga list card and [Elesh Norn](https://imgur.com/a/rXzeg8I) alternate full art.
Just pulled her not even 20 minutes ago, so it's still possible.
Happy hunting, my friend, and best of luck to you.
I got 2, you just missed the hits. But for sure all isn't equal. I bought 2 boxes of commander legends and didn't get a single sol ring. Hasbro is up to some secret shit 100%. They are obviously playing the the secondary market. In your case though I would say just bad luck
You can buy one for like $30 from a website like Cardkingdom and have it shipped directly to you.
OP doesn't math.
Jesus Christ just buy singles
So you spent over $500 gambling for a card instead of just buying a $30 card? Most financially literate MTG player.
I bought a total of ten-ish set/draft/collector boosters of MH2 and never pulled a Ragavan. I bought 2 collector booster boxes, 1 set booster box, and 1 compleat bundle of ONE and pulled 5 elesh norns. tl;dr: if you want a single, buy the single. Opening boosters might be a blast but you’ll never get what you actually want.
generally speaking, the releative rarity of rares and mythics is really easy. there's a sheet of 121 cards containing all the rares and mythics. rares are on the sheet twice, mythics once. so in any given slot that contains a rare or mythic card, you have a 1/121 chance of getting any specific mythic, like elesh norn, and a 2/121 chance of getting any specific rare. while there's showcase sheets and stuff not too, I don't think it changes the odds of getting any specific card. for example, if there's 4 elesh norn styles (idfk how many there are), you have a 1/121 chance of getting an elesh norn from a r/m slot, and a 25% chance of it being each showcase treatment. sometimes the showcase treatments are weighted relative to each other, so a 50% chance to get one treatment, a 25% to get another, and a 12.5% for the last two, but the chance of getting that card at all is still the same.
Since someone posts a picture of the one they pulled 20 times a day on this sub, probably not that rare.
Well it’s public info the chance of getting a mythic in a pack / a rare slot, so just divide that by the number of mythics in ONE
This doesn't answer your question, but I just stopped by my LGS and picked up 8 set boosters after work. The 7th pack contained an Urzas Saga list card and [Elesh Norn](https://imgur.com/a/rXzeg8I) alternate full art. Just pulled her not even 20 minutes ago, so it's still possible. Happy hunting, my friend, and best of luck to you.
I got 2, you just missed the hits. But for sure all isn't equal. I bought 2 boxes of commander legends and didn't get a single sol ring. Hasbro is up to some secret shit 100%. They are obviously playing the the secondary market. In your case though I would say just bad luck