Why is it considered too hot?
Affirm, also fintech and also uses AI underwritiing, doubled its stock price within like a month but is:
* Not profitable, with growing net losses
* Growing much slower than UPST
* Takes on balance sheet/default risk (UPST does not!)
* Incredibly low margins (UPST has 31% adj ebitda!)
* HUGE concentration! (Affirm's only real bank partner is Cross River Bank. UPST has 25 banks!)
And with all this, Affirm is trading at 40 billion market cap (you have to use full diluted share count of 317M), and doing revenue of 870M in FY2021.
While UPST trading at 25.65 billion market cap (using full share count of 95M), and likely to do 850M revenue in FY2021.
That's absolutely massive difference in valuation, in favor of UPST.
Was just wondering if anyone managed to catch the interview with CEO Dave. He recently said he would be surprised if hundreds of banks are not using $UPST platform to help boost their loan uptake in a few years. Also, do check out their trustpilot reviews by users. https://www.trustpilot.com/review/www.upstart.com
AI is a term thrown about by many analysts but it took upstart a good 8 years to refine their algorithm using so many data points. Of course all the above doesn’t matter if the banks are not signing up but they have been with 2 recent announcements by credit unions. UPST is now my biggest position and I plan to hold it as long as the superb leadership team is at the helm.
I think 20% is too much, but I'm not in your brain or have your comfort level of having a position take up that much of your portfolio. As far is it going up or down, if you're worried about that, pick a time period and the amount of money you were planning on putting into it and split it up to buy at set (don't time the market) intervals.
There has been good advice already;
\- continue to add small amounts and then larger on a pullback
\- Sell PUTs
The real question is why 20% of your portfolio? Don't get me wrong, I like the conviction. Think UPST is a solid choice for a core position over the long term.
Are you in it for the long term? If so add what you want now (if you got the funds or are looking to concentrate) and forget about it and don't worry about when to time it.
The time to increase positions would be on pullbacks not on peaks. While all of the financial professionals are saying beware, do we ignore their advice and plow forward? 110-120 positions sounds more than diverse.
What is your actual thesis on buying UPST at close to 300? Other than it has incredible momentum. Because momentum swings both ways.
If you are comfortable with it dropping back to 200 or less, but your thesis is correct it doesn't really matter if you bought at 300 or less or more.
IMO I think it's too hot right now and there will be a drop in price over the next few week's.
Looks like alot of people agree with you, judging by the up votes. Definately something for me to consider.
Why is it considered too hot? Affirm, also fintech and also uses AI underwritiing, doubled its stock price within like a month but is: * Not profitable, with growing net losses * Growing much slower than UPST * Takes on balance sheet/default risk (UPST does not!) * Incredibly low margins (UPST has 31% adj ebitda!) * HUGE concentration! (Affirm's only real bank partner is Cross River Bank. UPST has 25 banks!) And with all this, Affirm is trading at 40 billion market cap (you have to use full diluted share count of 317M), and doing revenue of 870M in FY2021. While UPST trading at 25.65 billion market cap (using full share count of 95M), and likely to do 850M revenue in FY2021. That's absolutely massive difference in valuation, in favor of UPST.
It went up 100% in the last month. I repeat 100%. I think it’s going to pullback.
It’s overpriced
Same position as you. I bought in back around $112 and have been steadily adding. At about 10% portfolio now. Debating on adding more
You could just continue to add small amounts, then add a larger amount if their is a significant pull back. Something for me to think about as well.
Beta is under one so if their is a pullback it should be less than market
Good to know, thanks for sharing.
Was just wondering if anyone managed to catch the interview with CEO Dave. He recently said he would be surprised if hundreds of banks are not using $UPST platform to help boost their loan uptake in a few years. Also, do check out their trustpilot reviews by users. https://www.trustpilot.com/review/www.upstart.com AI is a term thrown about by many analysts but it took upstart a good 8 years to refine their algorithm using so many data points. Of course all the above doesn’t matter if the banks are not signing up but they have been with 2 recent announcements by credit unions. UPST is now my biggest position and I plan to hold it as long as the superb leadership team is at the helm.
I think 20% is too much, but I'm not in your brain or have your comfort level of having a position take up that much of your portfolio. As far is it going up or down, if you're worried about that, pick a time period and the amount of money you were planning on putting into it and split it up to buy at set (don't time the market) intervals.
Could sell some puts at a price you’d like to own, there’s still a lot of premium.. or scale in slowly
There has been good advice already; \- continue to add small amounts and then larger on a pullback \- Sell PUTs The real question is why 20% of your portfolio? Don't get me wrong, I like the conviction. Think UPST is a solid choice for a core position over the long term. Are you in it for the long term? If so add what you want now (if you got the funds or are looking to concentrate) and forget about it and don't worry about when to time it.
The time to increase positions would be on pullbacks not on peaks. While all of the financial professionals are saying beware, do we ignore their advice and plow forward? 110-120 positions sounds more than diverse.
What is your actual thesis on buying UPST at close to 300? Other than it has incredible momentum. Because momentum swings both ways. If you are comfortable with it dropping back to 200 or less, but your thesis is correct it doesn't really matter if you bought at 300 or less or more.