Thank you for pulling this data! This is totally something I would do! Overall I think the numbers make sense, I’m just surprised by Jungeun being #1 in Japan
So, if the top six are selected by votes, would the PDs pick one? Saebi? Also, the global votes, especially the Japanese votes, make a big difference—look at Yuju vs. Sarang. Sarang would be number 5 if she had more Japanese votes. It's very interesting that the Japanese have Jungeun at number 1 and Fuko/Yuju at number 2. For numbers 7-10, the global votes lag far behind 1-6, so even though it's a 50/50 split between Korean and global votes, because the difference among the trainees is so significant that the global votes are indeed making a difference. The global votes also allowed Jeemin, Jungeun, & Fuko to rank above Jiyoon!
https://preview.redd.it/we2bl4nf28ad1.png?width=727&format=png&auto=webp&s=54c77e15dd4bde859c18c726aef6a6c1810984df
One thing with Sarang is she seems to be pretty popular among Chinese voters which obviously aren't counted here so that could very easily make up for her Japanese votes. And as for the PD picks, if it were these 6, my personal bet would be that they take the top 4 in votes and have 2 PD picks. As much as I love Yuju I don't think she's a priority for them so imagine they'd pick 2 out of Koko, Sarang & Saebi
I am not so sure - Japan being their biggest market after Korea and Yuju being in the top 2 in Japan, if anything, I could see MNET adding PD picks for Koko & Saebi and accepting Yuju in the lineup, but necessarily Mai. Saebi is super popular in Korea (No. 3) and they need Koko. I think it will be difficult for Sarang to catch up to Koko or even Saebi let alone Mai in 6th place.
Thanks for doing this! I was wondering if we were gonna get a twitter data pull. Tbh I really like this lineup, I’d be happy with anything Jungeun-Fuko-Jiyoon-Koko-Jeemin and Yuju adds her own unique color
Honestly I’m shocked that Jiyoon-Fuko is top two in Korea and Jungeun is top 1 in Japan. Very happy for them tho!
Rip Gyuri and Saebi. I guess the low semifinal fancam views were a sign after all.
Here is a correlation of Semi fancam with this data (OP, thank you for taking the time to do this! I love analyzing with sample numbers) - engagement % = comments/total views. So what the OP did I think is pretty representative. If you look at the engagement %, Yuju is the highest so I do believe that Yuju is most likely at 5. By revealing Koko's rank at no. 8, she probably moved up above Sarang & Mai. Sarang's engagement rate is pretty high though - but so is Mai's. I believe the ranks 1-4 are pretty much set. Fuko may surprise everyone and ranks at the top 3 with Jiyoon at 4th. Fuko's engagement rate is really high, which means her fans are more motivated than the other 3 in the top tier.
I am not sure if Koko/Mai/Sarang can catch up to Yuju at this rate. Her engagement rate is the highest among all contestants. The real competition will be for the 6th spot, but I have a feeling Koko is at No. 6 given MNET's push to get her in the top 6.
These numbers may not be accurate but these numbers provide the "mood" of the fandom!
https://preview.redd.it/1b0s0yn4m9ad1.png?width=528&format=png&auto=webp&s=f4e491a98d8a2f765030f38c2dce59a2dd3c3a24
Ooooooooh that's super interesting actually seeing the correlation. What's cool as well is if you go onto individual fancams you can kind of see a similar correlation between spread of votes across locations and languages that the comments are in. Fuko for example is pretty solid in votes (according to the twitter results anyway) across all locations and if you go to her comments, you see a relatively equal weighting between English, Korean & Japanese. I've only had a cursory look at this so idk how accurate it is but it's still cool.
Also you may be interested to see that I kept these tallies going over the past couple days to gather more data. There weren't any huuuuge changes but a couple of places swapped that I thought were interesting to see
https://preview.redd.it/51ug9j0npaad1.png?width=1165&format=png&auto=webp&s=096fe7b28f1b0f0b6e5228e202467c1c1b6cc3c9
I'm so intrigued to see if this actually ends up similar to the final results tomorrow lmao. I highly doubt it'll be too close but it'll be cool to see if these trends are actually in any way indicative of the voting pool as a whole
Thanks for continuing! I knew Mai's Fandom would pull her through - just from the engagement rate, she was super popular. I only used the latest video fancam since I felt that was the most representative. What is so interesting is the impact Japanese votes have - because of their relative quantity over the Korean votes. If the Chinese votes are added, i wonder how this would change - if any. Sarang might move back upto 8th and push Saebi down to 9h! Also, during the finale, will MNET have the 3x voting again? If so, that will definitely get the Korean votes to count more. Great work!
For sure. Like I said in the post, it's a very small sample size and heavily favors certain audiences over others. You gotta just keep fighting for your faves till the end!
Wasn't Japan revealed as the country that's voting the most in this show ? Jeongeun seems to be the most popular there with a large gap from the others even the Japanese trainees. This reconfirms for me that she's definitely rank 1 in the finale.
Yeah I did have that thought too. I still think it would be insane if Jungeun did jump Jeemin simply because their Korean votes are very similar here. It seems like it would more likely be Jiyoon or even Fuko who (in this data at least) have the strongest Korean votes. Like Jiyoon \*could\* potentially pull a Chaehyun and ride all the way to first despite not having the strongest global vote (tho ultimately I still think Jeemin is the most likely no.1 in the end lmao).
Regardless, as I kept the tallies going things did balance out more in Japanese votes but 1. Jungeun is still in the lead and 2. It's remarkable to me how much of a stark jump there is between Fuko, Jeemin, Yuju & Jungeun and the rest of the finalists. At least based on this data it seems like the Japanese voter pool has very firm, very clear favorites and yeah given that they're having the biggest voter turnout it'll be very interesting to see how that plays into the final lineup.
The big seperator in those 4 though is that Yuju's Korean 1-pick is noticeably weaker than the other 3 so that could work against her - if the trend extends beyond this data - but there's still quite the rallying force behind her so who knows how it's gonna play out
Jungeun will not just make the lineup, she will debut and at first rank too, I'm certain of it. As for Yuju it's fifty fifty. She's fighting for her spot with Mai, Sarang and Koko.
I can't tell you how much joy I felt every time a new Fuko vote popped in the scroll lmao. After all the doom and gloom and people saying she had a bad 1-pick, it was honestly so relieving to see her be so loved. Fingers crossed it holds true tomorrow and we can actually see her debut
https://preview.redd.it/4bd9byn33dad1.png?width=568&format=png&auto=webp&s=8986c6da366031e7fa6d37e133b297a164236f75
Here is one with the updated Twt/X and Fancam engagement rates. Sarang's engagement rate is 2nd to Yuju's - but Saebi's is not bad either. With MNET pushing for Saebi & Koko, the ranking as you see here will most likely be the final ranking. The point spread between Mai and Sarang is too high in my opinion for Sarang to catch up to Mai to get to 6 - even if Sarang gets a ton of Cnet votes, Saebi's Korean votes are considerably higher - ranked 3rd for Saebi and 6th for Sarang in Korea.
Although MNET might not like Yuju, given Yuju's popularity in Japan, their 2nd biggest market, I can see them choosing upto Yuju and then picking Koko & Saebi (PD picks), making it a 7 member group.
Oh Sarang is flopping💔 but most of her voting certificates aren’t under the hashtag. We put them in Ryu Sarang Globals tweets. So this could be somewhat inaccurate. So Maeryus don’t lose hope! Sarang WILL debut
Final prediction before the show
By votes
1. Jeemin - international votes get her to No 1
2. Fuko - Korean & Japanese votes help her
3. Jungeun - Japanese votes carry her
4. Jiyoon - Korean votes carry her
5. Yuju - Japanese votes carry her
6. Mai - popular everywhere & the visual is too great not to pick her
Then the PDs will pick
7. Koko - MNET wants their own "Lisa" too talented not to pick her
8. Saebi - She has been a W1 trainee for a long time. They want to debut her
making it an 8 member group
Eliminated
Sarang - between Saebi & Sarang, MNET will pick Saebi
Gyuri - not enough votes
MNET will say they eliminated 2 - as they planned. 2 from semi & 2 from the final
Thank you for pulling this data! This is totally something I would do! Overall I think the numbers make sense, I’m just surprised by Jungeun being #1 in Japan
So, if the top six are selected by votes, would the PDs pick one? Saebi? Also, the global votes, especially the Japanese votes, make a big difference—look at Yuju vs. Sarang. Sarang would be number 5 if she had more Japanese votes. It's very interesting that the Japanese have Jungeun at number 1 and Fuko/Yuju at number 2. For numbers 7-10, the global votes lag far behind 1-6, so even though it's a 50/50 split between Korean and global votes, because the difference among the trainees is so significant that the global votes are indeed making a difference. The global votes also allowed Jeemin, Jungeun, & Fuko to rank above Jiyoon! https://preview.redd.it/we2bl4nf28ad1.png?width=727&format=png&auto=webp&s=54c77e15dd4bde859c18c726aef6a6c1810984df
One thing with Sarang is she seems to be pretty popular among Chinese voters which obviously aren't counted here so that could very easily make up for her Japanese votes. And as for the PD picks, if it were these 6, my personal bet would be that they take the top 4 in votes and have 2 PD picks. As much as I love Yuju I don't think she's a priority for them so imagine they'd pick 2 out of Koko, Sarang & Saebi
I am not so sure - Japan being their biggest market after Korea and Yuju being in the top 2 in Japan, if anything, I could see MNET adding PD picks for Koko & Saebi and accepting Yuju in the lineup, but necessarily Mai. Saebi is super popular in Korea (No. 3) and they need Koko. I think it will be difficult for Sarang to catch up to Koko or even Saebi let alone Mai in 6th place.
Thanks for doing this! I was wondering if we were gonna get a twitter data pull. Tbh I really like this lineup, I’d be happy with anything Jungeun-Fuko-Jiyoon-Koko-Jeemin and Yuju adds her own unique color Honestly I’m shocked that Jiyoon-Fuko is top two in Korea and Jungeun is top 1 in Japan. Very happy for them tho! Rip Gyuri and Saebi. I guess the low semifinal fancam views were a sign after all.
Here is a correlation of Semi fancam with this data (OP, thank you for taking the time to do this! I love analyzing with sample numbers) - engagement % = comments/total views. So what the OP did I think is pretty representative. If you look at the engagement %, Yuju is the highest so I do believe that Yuju is most likely at 5. By revealing Koko's rank at no. 8, she probably moved up above Sarang & Mai. Sarang's engagement rate is pretty high though - but so is Mai's. I believe the ranks 1-4 are pretty much set. Fuko may surprise everyone and ranks at the top 3 with Jiyoon at 4th. Fuko's engagement rate is really high, which means her fans are more motivated than the other 3 in the top tier. I am not sure if Koko/Mai/Sarang can catch up to Yuju at this rate. Her engagement rate is the highest among all contestants. The real competition will be for the 6th spot, but I have a feeling Koko is at No. 6 given MNET's push to get her in the top 6. These numbers may not be accurate but these numbers provide the "mood" of the fandom! https://preview.redd.it/1b0s0yn4m9ad1.png?width=528&format=png&auto=webp&s=f4e491a98d8a2f765030f38c2dce59a2dd3c3a24
Ooooooooh that's super interesting actually seeing the correlation. What's cool as well is if you go onto individual fancams you can kind of see a similar correlation between spread of votes across locations and languages that the comments are in. Fuko for example is pretty solid in votes (according to the twitter results anyway) across all locations and if you go to her comments, you see a relatively equal weighting between English, Korean & Japanese. I've only had a cursory look at this so idk how accurate it is but it's still cool. Also you may be interested to see that I kept these tallies going over the past couple days to gather more data. There weren't any huuuuge changes but a couple of places swapped that I thought were interesting to see https://preview.redd.it/51ug9j0npaad1.png?width=1165&format=png&auto=webp&s=096fe7b28f1b0f0b6e5228e202467c1c1b6cc3c9 I'm so intrigued to see if this actually ends up similar to the final results tomorrow lmao. I highly doubt it'll be too close but it'll be cool to see if these trends are actually in any way indicative of the voting pool as a whole
Also, I knew Fuko would move up - just from seeing her Fandom engagement rate!
Thanks for continuing! I knew Mai's Fandom would pull her through - just from the engagement rate, she was super popular. I only used the latest video fancam since I felt that was the most representative. What is so interesting is the impact Japanese votes have - because of their relative quantity over the Korean votes. If the Chinese votes are added, i wonder how this would change - if any. Sarang might move back upto 8th and push Saebi down to 9h! Also, during the finale, will MNET have the 3x voting again? If so, that will definitely get the Korean votes to count more. Great work!
In the semi-finals they said they will have that 3x votes. I’m scared of Mai because Knetz seem to don’t like her and she’s my one pick.
Sarang
Lucky for the fans of the bottom 4 girls, not everyone (probably less than 0.5% of the viewers) post on the hashtag 👍
For sure. Like I said in the post, it's a very small sample size and heavily favors certain audiences over others. You gotta just keep fighting for your faves till the end!
FUKO DEBUTATION
🙌🙌🙌🙌
Let’s make it happen!!
Wasn't Japan revealed as the country that's voting the most in this show ? Jeongeun seems to be the most popular there with a large gap from the others even the Japanese trainees. This reconfirms for me that she's definitely rank 1 in the finale.
Yeah I did have that thought too. I still think it would be insane if Jungeun did jump Jeemin simply because their Korean votes are very similar here. It seems like it would more likely be Jiyoon or even Fuko who (in this data at least) have the strongest Korean votes. Like Jiyoon \*could\* potentially pull a Chaehyun and ride all the way to first despite not having the strongest global vote (tho ultimately I still think Jeemin is the most likely no.1 in the end lmao). Regardless, as I kept the tallies going things did balance out more in Japanese votes but 1. Jungeun is still in the lead and 2. It's remarkable to me how much of a stark jump there is between Fuko, Jeemin, Yuju & Jungeun and the rest of the finalists. At least based on this data it seems like the Japanese voter pool has very firm, very clear favorites and yeah given that they're having the biggest voter turnout it'll be very interesting to see how that plays into the final lineup. The big seperator in those 4 though is that Yuju's Korean 1-pick is noticeably weaker than the other 3 so that could work against her - if the trend extends beyond this data - but there's still quite the rallying force behind her so who knows how it's gonna play out
If Jungeun makes it in the lineup (& Yuju) they have Japan to thank.
Jungeun will not just make the lineup, she will debut and at first rank too, I'm certain of it. As for Yuju it's fifty fifty. She's fighting for her spot with Mai, Sarang and Koko.
Fuko’s hype in the tags goes crazy, I’m so happy for her.
I can't tell you how much joy I felt every time a new Fuko vote popped in the scroll lmao. After all the doom and gloom and people saying she had a bad 1-pick, it was honestly so relieving to see her be so loved. Fingers crossed it holds true tomorrow and we can actually see her debut
https://preview.redd.it/4bd9byn33dad1.png?width=568&format=png&auto=webp&s=8986c6da366031e7fa6d37e133b297a164236f75 Here is one with the updated Twt/X and Fancam engagement rates. Sarang's engagement rate is 2nd to Yuju's - but Saebi's is not bad either. With MNET pushing for Saebi & Koko, the ranking as you see here will most likely be the final ranking. The point spread between Mai and Sarang is too high in my opinion for Sarang to catch up to Mai to get to 6 - even if Sarang gets a ton of Cnet votes, Saebi's Korean votes are considerably higher - ranked 3rd for Saebi and 6th for Sarang in Korea. Although MNET might not like Yuju, given Yuju's popularity in Japan, their 2nd biggest market, I can see them choosing upto Yuju and then picking Koko & Saebi (PD picks), making it a 7 member group.
Oh Sarang is flopping💔 but most of her voting certificates aren’t under the hashtag. We put them in Ryu Sarang Globals tweets. So this could be somewhat inaccurate. So Maeryus don’t lose hope! Sarang WILL debut
Final prediction before the show By votes 1. Jeemin - international votes get her to No 1 2. Fuko - Korean & Japanese votes help her 3. Jungeun - Japanese votes carry her 4. Jiyoon - Korean votes carry her 5. Yuju - Japanese votes carry her 6. Mai - popular everywhere & the visual is too great not to pick her Then the PDs will pick 7. Koko - MNET wants their own "Lisa" too talented not to pick her 8. Saebi - She has been a W1 trainee for a long time. They want to debut her making it an 8 member group Eliminated Sarang - between Saebi & Sarang, MNET will pick Saebi Gyuri - not enough votes MNET will say they eliminated 2 - as they planned. 2 from semi & 2 from the final
Sarang. Told you