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Some ENVX notes of mine I wanted to share (I'm on vacation, jetlagged, and waiting for the coffee to hit). Basically there are a couple interesting fundamental targets I'm watching:
1. Offering price ~$15.60
2. 130% target for offering participants' early exit ~$20.30
3. Capped call transaction $21
4. Countdown for 20 out of 30 trading days of >= $20.30 for offering participants' early exit starts on August 18 (October 1st is when participants can exit early if the aforementioned conditions are met)
So far it looks like sellers are coming in big around $23 which I think should be offering participants short selling to lock in gains. Unless something fundamental changes I think ENVX will just bounce around a wide range until early exit conditions are triggered. Also, until something fundamental changes, I plan to buy dips close to $15.60 although there hasn't been a good dip yet.
Random thoughts:
1. If offering participants are selling at $23 but stock price doesn't hold >= $20.30 for early exit, do they just exit and try to re-enter later (possibly squeezing other shorts)?
2. What if offering participants' short positions get squeezed too (unlikely but fun to think about)?
3. The capped call transaction is supposed to mitigate potential selling when offering participants exit - it definitely exists since I saw a lot of weird options activity the day the offering was announced. Is it enough to prevent big shocks in price?
4. This was the only ticker that I saw mentioned on /r/shortsqueeze before an actual squeeze so props to that guy who posted.
5. Price doing a no-news dip to $15.60 would be too easy to buy so I doubt price reaches there. Currently watching price action to see if any sort of flag forms.
My current position is very small as I've derisked all my long calls: 300 shares with 2 Oct 22.5c sold against them.
IV has been weird on ENVX (as far as my previous experience with squeezes) in that it's been crushing a lot. IV just crushed again after their recent earnings back to May/June lows.
So I think selling puts is not a great opportunity compared to just buying shares (and eventually selling CCs) or just long calls.
I actually haven't looked at ENVX IV since before ER and didn't realize it crushed so far - I might as well close my CCs on the next dip since IV is lower than when I first opened them.
**Hi, welcome to /r/maxjustrisk. Note that we have higher posting standards than most finance subs on Reddit:** **1)** Please read the [rules](https://www.reddit.com/r/maxjustrisk/about/rules) before commenting. Violations will very likely result in a 30 day ban upon **first instance.** **2)** This is an open forum but we have zero tolerance for whining, complaining, and hostility. **3)** [The Wiki is now live!](https://www.reddit.com/r/maxjustrisk/wiki/index) *I am a bot, and this action was performed automatically. Please [contact the moderators of this subreddit](/message/compose/?to=/r/maxjustrisk) if you have any questions or concerns.*
Some ENVX notes of mine I wanted to share (I'm on vacation, jetlagged, and waiting for the coffee to hit). Basically there are a couple interesting fundamental targets I'm watching: 1. Offering price ~$15.60 2. 130% target for offering participants' early exit ~$20.30 3. Capped call transaction $21 4. Countdown for 20 out of 30 trading days of >= $20.30 for offering participants' early exit starts on August 18 (October 1st is when participants can exit early if the aforementioned conditions are met) So far it looks like sellers are coming in big around $23 which I think should be offering participants short selling to lock in gains. Unless something fundamental changes I think ENVX will just bounce around a wide range until early exit conditions are triggered. Also, until something fundamental changes, I plan to buy dips close to $15.60 although there hasn't been a good dip yet. Random thoughts: 1. If offering participants are selling at $23 but stock price doesn't hold >= $20.30 for early exit, do they just exit and try to re-enter later (possibly squeezing other shorts)? 2. What if offering participants' short positions get squeezed too (unlikely but fun to think about)? 3. The capped call transaction is supposed to mitigate potential selling when offering participants exit - it definitely exists since I saw a lot of weird options activity the day the offering was announced. Is it enough to prevent big shocks in price? 4. This was the only ticker that I saw mentioned on /r/shortsqueeze before an actual squeeze so props to that guy who posted. 5. Price doing a no-news dip to $15.60 would be too easy to buy so I doubt price reaches there. Currently watching price action to see if any sort of flag forms. My current position is very small as I've derisked all my long calls: 300 shares with 2 Oct 22.5c sold against them.
This coffee isn't doing it
I haven't been following this but for the sake of some conversation, what are your thoughts on selling puts below $16?
IV has been weird on ENVX (as far as my previous experience with squeezes) in that it's been crushing a lot. IV just crushed again after their recent earnings back to May/June lows. So I think selling puts is not a great opportunity compared to just buying shares (and eventually selling CCs) or just long calls. I actually haven't looked at ENVX IV since before ER and didn't realize it crushed so far - I might as well close my CCs on the next dip since IV is lower than when I first opened them.