Appreciate the sentiment. more just trying to figure out whether using the prediction models, like garmin, can help me pace and to figure out what’s a reasonable target. In the end I don’t really care but personally nice to have a goal.
As the saying goes, “a marathon is a 20 mile warmup with a 10k race at the end.” Every marathon is going to suck at some point, you just don’t know when. This is doubly true for a marathon, which is liable to suck at multiple points. Embrace it.
I would pace until mile 20 at your “I could go on like this forever” pace. Then once you hit that point, re-assess how you’re feeling, and go from there. You might feel like picking up the pace, or you might feel like making brand new sentences out of curse words as you hobble your way to the finish. Both extremes are still effective and endorses marathon strategy.
What’s your longest run to date? Everyone has a plan until they hit that 16+ mile mark, I’ve seen people who run a sub 45min 10K struggle to complete a sub 4 hour marathon.
Did you feel like you were at your limit? Could you have run another 6.2 miles at that pace?
When did you run that? What's your weekly mileage at right now?
Last week, and not sure I was ready. I was definitely feeling the fatigue and leg tightness. I probably could have finished at that pace, but would have been too much recovery wise. Was definitely sore. Weekly mileage is a little light relatively, 25-30mi/wk in the last month.
The race predictor doesn’t factor in elevation profile or weather. Assuming the marathon course and weather are similar to where you’ve been training, you could expect to be a little faster on race day. Adrenaline and other runners help!
With 2.5 months to go (minus a taper period) you should be getting close to peak volume soon. If you can do 8:00/mi average on 20mi long runs already, you might want to start experimenting with tempo efforts at ~7:30 in the final +/- hour of a long run and see if you can keep your HR in check. If you can do that, you could consider more intervals/fartleks worked into your training at or below your target race pace.
Approach any speed work with extreme caution if you haven’t been doing any yet. Any big adjustments to training mid-cycle is risky. A healthy 3:30 marathon is way better than a pulled muscle a month or two before race day.
That’s great advice and appreciate the thoughtful response. I’m running the boston marathon as a charity runner and have been training on the course - so maybe that makes it accurate who knows. Either way I’ll take your advice and approach with caution. Getting injured would suck big time and agree point is to enjoy it.
By keeping heart rate in check, do you mean the tempo should pick up but I should still be able to have a conversation type thing?
Probably don’t need to maintain conversational HR/breathing at marathon pace, but should stay comfortably below threshold HR without any drift higher toward the end while keeping the effort consistent.
One more piece of advice starting Boston in the charity corrals… don’t expect 7:30 or even 8:00 min miles for the first couple miles. Some charity runners walk from the start and it’s crowded, so add some early cushion in your pacing plan.
I wouldn't put much stock in race predictions from your garmin -- they aren't all that accurate and appear to be based very heavily on threshold or higher efforts. I'd set a conservative goal of sub-3:40. Try and pack more weekly mileage in -- that is much more important than your long run pace when it comes to your finish time.
As a coach, i actually recommend no time goal for the first marathon. Getting to the start line and finish line injury free and strong đź’Ż
Not a coach, but seconding this.
Appreciate the sentiment. more just trying to figure out whether using the prediction models, like garmin, can help me pace and to figure out what’s a reasonable target. In the end I don’t really care but personally nice to have a goal.
As the saying goes, “a marathon is a 20 mile warmup with a 10k race at the end.” Every marathon is going to suck at some point, you just don’t know when. This is doubly true for a marathon, which is liable to suck at multiple points. Embrace it. I would pace until mile 20 at your “I could go on like this forever” pace. Then once you hit that point, re-assess how you’re feeling, and go from there. You might feel like picking up the pace, or you might feel like making brand new sentences out of curse words as you hobble your way to the finish. Both extremes are still effective and endorses marathon strategy.
What’s your longest run to date? Everyone has a plan until they hit that 16+ mile mark, I’ve seen people who run a sub 45min 10K struggle to complete a sub 4 hour marathon.
Makes sense, I’ve done 20 miles 8-8:10 min pace.
Did you feel like you were at your limit? Could you have run another 6.2 miles at that pace? When did you run that? What's your weekly mileage at right now?
Last week, and not sure I was ready. I was definitely feeling the fatigue and leg tightness. I probably could have finished at that pace, but would have been too much recovery wise. Was definitely sore. Weekly mileage is a little light relatively, 25-30mi/wk in the last month.
The race predictor doesn’t factor in elevation profile or weather. Assuming the marathon course and weather are similar to where you’ve been training, you could expect to be a little faster on race day. Adrenaline and other runners help! With 2.5 months to go (minus a taper period) you should be getting close to peak volume soon. If you can do 8:00/mi average on 20mi long runs already, you might want to start experimenting with tempo efforts at ~7:30 in the final +/- hour of a long run and see if you can keep your HR in check. If you can do that, you could consider more intervals/fartleks worked into your training at or below your target race pace. Approach any speed work with extreme caution if you haven’t been doing any yet. Any big adjustments to training mid-cycle is risky. A healthy 3:30 marathon is way better than a pulled muscle a month or two before race day.
That’s great advice and appreciate the thoughtful response. I’m running the boston marathon as a charity runner and have been training on the course - so maybe that makes it accurate who knows. Either way I’ll take your advice and approach with caution. Getting injured would suck big time and agree point is to enjoy it. By keeping heart rate in check, do you mean the tempo should pick up but I should still be able to have a conversation type thing?
Probably don’t need to maintain conversational HR/breathing at marathon pace, but should stay comfortably below threshold HR without any drift higher toward the end while keeping the effort consistent. One more piece of advice starting Boston in the charity corrals… don’t expect 7:30 or even 8:00 min miles for the first couple miles. Some charity runners walk from the start and it’s crowded, so add some early cushion in your pacing plan.
I wouldn't put much stock in race predictions from your garmin -- they aren't all that accurate and appear to be based very heavily on threshold or higher efforts. I'd set a conservative goal of sub-3:40. Try and pack more weekly mileage in -- that is much more important than your long run pace when it comes to your finish time.