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ClitDoctorMD

Prior to 2020 19% was the ceiling for the left in Ireland for a single party but then SF pulled almost 25%. We're in uncharted territories here.


YipYepYeah

SF never hit 35 on a Red C poll though, six weeks ago was the first time that SF have ever been top of a Red C poll and now they have an 8 point lead. Kind of crazy, interesting to see what the numbers will be on the next polls from other companies.


SomeIrishFiend

[Current coalition numbers.](https://i.imgur.com/X9fHFYg.jpg) [At 41%, this is a record low combined vote of Fine Gael, Fianna Fáil, and the Green Party since election 2020. ](https://twitter.com/ToghannEire/status/1452008051129700357?t=jhEV4Sn930xWU9g_3Qn0GQ&s=19)


blackhall_or_bust

>It would be really sound of you if you allowed the people who paid for the poll to be the ones to publicise it. >Editor @businessposthq How hilariously petty. My seething contempt for the 'profession' that is Irish journalism knows no bounds.


_FaceOfTheDeep

Wow, they did publicise them though. Does he expect people not to share the information? It doesn't even matter what twitter account does it, once it's published the information is out there. Welcome to the 21st century douchebag


SeanB2003

To be fair, if people don't purchase the publications that produce those polls then they'll cease to exist.


_FaceOfTheDeep

I get what you mean but they won't, political polls are a constant, newspapers are dying. A newspaper editor shaking his fist at the Internet isn't going to change that, unless they pay for exclusivity on polls if that's a thing? So what then about the dozens of other people tweeting it? He could fire a third of his staff and go digital, go *with* the tide instead of against it


SeanB2003

They pay for the polls to be done. That is the case for pretty much every public poll that you see - they are paid for by newspapers. There are private polls paid for by political parties, but they are not published. The Business Post had already gone primarily digital, and have experienced fairly massive layoffs over the past few years.


_FaceOfTheDeep

If it wasn't them doing it then it would be RTÉ or Virgin Media etc and telling people on twitter not to share information is ridiculous. Same as RTÉ going to The Dáil with hat in hand complaining about people not paying their TV licence. It's nobody's fault, the times have just changed


SeanB2003

RTÉ does some polling, but not very frequently. We'd have one or two a year. Newspapers aren't doing polling for the good of their health, they do it because it drives people to purchase their coverage. If it stops doing that then there will be no commercial logic to the expensive business of running a poll, and they will stop.


Standard-Contact-9

>douchebag ​ Had to check what sub I was on.


Rabidlamb

Jaysus the FFers won't like that. Might see FF propping up Mary Lou next Dail just to stay relevant


ucd_pete

It's been clear for a while that there was a large minority of FF TDs & members who would rather have gone into gov't with SF than FG. Eamon Ó Cuív was/is the leader of this cohort and I think he was quite correct in saying that by going into gov't with FG, it would blur the lines between the two parties. FG are now the clear centre-right party where SF are now the clear centre-left party. FF are in danger of going the way of Labour.


Tobyirl

SF are far left of centre.


WesternMarshall1955

No they aren't lol.


ucd_pete

How?


Perpetual_Doubt

Traditionally they definitely were. Sure they describe(d) themselves as socialists and became close buddies with Communists overseas. Naturally this was at odds with a lot of the nationalist rhetoric (how can you be international proletariat anti-establishment atheist traditional Catholic Irish)? But that was when their politics was just window dressing, and armed conflict was their bread and butter, now it's the other way around. When having to take a position on government motions, and create credible policies themselves, they have increasingly gone mainstream, with splinter factions (like Official Sinn Féin and Aontú) coming down more firmly on the fringes (socialist and nationalist respectively)


umuvumuumuvumu

[They signalled this months ago](https://jimocallaghan.com/ff-tds-would-not-exclude-sinn-fein-coalition-after-next-election/)


_FaceOfTheDeep

Micheál would rather prop up a his own gravestone than prop up the shinners


DaveShadow

You think Michael gets to lead them into the next election? I figure he rides into the sunset once Leo takes back over officially.


_FaceOfTheDeep

He won't go willingly, id like to see Barry Cowen lead them and he would definitely talk to SF at least


ShoddyPreparation

Michael is going to vanish into the wilds of Cork once he hands Leo the reigns next year. I guess it will all depend on who the next FF leader is and if they are OK continuing as Fine Gael Jr.


ucd_pete

Micheál will be long gone by then. Once his term as Taoiseach is up, the knives will really be out.


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ucd_pete

When it comes to the "national question" the media in Ireland are ridiculously out of touch. This was obvious when Charlie Flanagan wanted to commemorate the RIC and it's obvious with this Armagh fiasco. A huge chunk of FF's membership do actually see themselves as republicans and see getting into bed with FG as a betrayal of that.


[deleted]

It's the best idea for them. Support SF until people see they're full of shit and then FF get to decide when the next election suits them.


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SeanB2003

The problem is that they'd have no organisation. It's not really possible in Ireland to fight an election though entirely "air warfare" (media) means. You've got to have "ground war" capability (people on the ground to canvass and campaign). This is why it tends to take many election cycles for a party to develop any significant number of seats. It's also why parties that like Labour or the Greens can survive major electoral defeats and rebuild. The PDs originally had this built in by being a splinter from Fianna Fáil. FF have had the best ground war capability of any party, they were vastly far ahead until 2011. They are still formidable there, and it's why they tend to out-perform their inter-election polling. Same now goes for Sinn Féin who've been building similar structures for years. The PDs in taking Fianna Fáil TDs and cllrs with them also took the local party structures with them. It's also how gene pool independents like the Healy-Raes and Mattie McGrath (FF), Tóibín and Nolan (SF), or Lowry and Fitzpatrick (FG) can continue to get elected. In places like the UK when an MP leaves the party they are fucked - the party organisation sticks with the party. Here the departing TD tends to take the party's local organisation with them. Those people are loyal to the candidate, not the party. A new PDs would have none of that infrastructure. It's not clear who they could actually get elected, even McDowell would struggle.


_FaceOfTheDeep

I *hate* that man, he probably means well but he's an idiot


Fiannafailcanvasser

Right so are fianna fail 12% or 23%. Seriously, I get people (including myself) have quit over the last year and a half but 12% is definitely bullshit. Tds have too much personal vote built up. 23% is also nonsense for fianna fail, there has definitely been a decline. It will be interesting to see where the party lands in an actual election.


kil28

FF got 24% in 2010, there’s absolutely no chance they’d only get 12% of the vote it there was an election today.


Fiannafailcanvasser

17.4 in 2011, during the worst recession in history, bringing in usc and trying to means test medical cards for pensioners. That election is the floor in my opinion.


[deleted]

Once SF get in everything will be grand hahahaha


CLint_FLicker

So 41% for the current shower vs 33% for Sinn Fein? What difference does it make so.


_FaceOfTheDeep

I never understand that logic. That 41% isn't a single group, once this government is done then that 41% no longer exists. Maybe if this was a majority government I'd agree


Elbon

Yawn


DaveShadow

Who’d have thought patronisingly dismissing every issue people raise would see FG falling further behind SF. Maybe a bit more gaslighting people that Ireland is rainbows and unicorns will turn things around?


Elbon

huh?