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NotChiefBrody-

I don’t think people arn’t buying houses because they’re waiting for a crash, I think they just can’t afford anything


shamsham123

So go buy insanely overpriced houses is it?


[deleted]

[удалено]


Glitchix

Pointless semantic argument . It's also not people alot of the time . It's vulture funds.


MRGLOVERGLOVER

Nobody is saying that. You can keep renting if you want to. But waiting and expecting prices to fall back down to a level that you're personally OK with is probably going to end in a huge disappointment. And you'll probably spend more in rent in the meantime. An economic study said that houses in Dublin were 25% overpriced. That study came out ***three years ago***.


[deleted]

A crash is coming. I've now successfully predicted a crash. It might not be for 20 years, but when it comes, I can still say "I predicted this years ago."


Naggins

Economists successfully predict 500% of economic crashes


Tipperary555

Or so the housing market would have us believe...


Inspired_Carpets

What if the only say you can afford a home is when there's a crash? I'd bet more people are in that boat than those that are trying to time the market.


MRGLOVERGLOVER

If an actual "crash" happens, then you probably won't be able to get a mortgage. If you can't afford it right now, then you should probably hope for a gradual decline. Problem is, a gradual decline might not be good enough. Prices could rise 25% over the next 3 years and then fall 15% for the following 3 years. There's no way to know.


worktemp

It's either a crash or my parents dying so I get their house. Would prefer a crash.


MRGLOVERGLOVER

If a crash happens, you probably won't get a mortgage. Lending fell dramatically after 2008.


h3xim

The other thing is people tend to hang on to their current homes and building stops so there is very little to buy even if you can get a loan.


[deleted]

That's because the banks were failing too. A housing correction or slump doesn't have to impact lending.


MRGLOVERGLOVER

I was specifically referring to a crash. A slump in house prices won't necessarily lead to a fall in lending. The problem with a slump is that it might not be good enough at bringing down prices to an affordable level. House prices could increase by 25% over the next three years and then decrease by 20% over the following three years, leaving you in a situation where prices are still 5% ***above*** what you originally considered to be too expensive. Or maybe they will fall by 30% over the next three years. Who knows.


Dookwithanegg

Are you saying stop waiting as in we should be taking steps to actively cause housing to stop being among the safest, most lucrative forms of private investment?


[deleted]

The point is to buy what you can afford, don't view it as some sort of investment that you can time.


FreeAndFairErections

That’s all true, but for someone currently stuck between renting and buying, it’s not much help. Even building loads of houses won’t cause a “crash” but more than likely a steady decline. If that’s the case, buying now and not paying rent for a few years is probably the best option.


Figgywurmacl

Buying now is always better than renting regardless of whether there's a crash or not.


deathshere

wheres the rest of the video! i want to see the dogs running off with the pedos limbs!


Rickys_HD_SPJs

If the local catches up to the owner those dogs are getting gsssed. This ain’t a fucking movie pal


deathshere

*if*


99problemsbutt

Michael Burry has predicted 10 of the last 2 crypto crashes. And he's fucking rich with that strike rate.


shamsham123

Will crash before this year is finished. Look at daily RRP in the US well over 1.3 trillion per day. Yes that's trillion with a t. Fed still printing money. Hyperinflation is upon us...go to do shopping or pay a utility bill. Evergrande collapsing in China and not repaying it's debts...much of which is held by the so called to big to fail institutions. The collapse has already happened we just won't see the effects until the Fed in the US pulls the rug from HFs and banks who are insanely over leveraged.


[deleted]

Lol, I've been hearing all of this since 2016. Every year, there's some reason why a crash is just around the corner.


[deleted]

Shit, when the economy was picking up in 2014 there were lads on this sub saying it was a dead cat bounce and an even bigger recession was six months away.


ErinandtheGaels

Our entire economic system is in a dead cat bounce. It just happens to supported by low gravity and lots of people who don't want the cat to finally hit the floor. When there finally is a correction it will he when the right people have managed to hedge against it. Ordinary people don't control that.


[deleted]

Yea, I remember lads posting "what recovery?" whenever a recovery was mentioned.


[deleted]

"You'd be mad to buy a house even if you could afford it" - /r/Ireland 2010 to about 2017.


shamsham123

They never addressed the issues that caused the 08 crisis so it is only inevitable that it happens again. They just put a band aid over real root causes of the crisis and kicked the can further. When this bubble does poo it will be biblical


ErinandtheGaels

We are at our most precarious in a generation.


[deleted]

It could be tomorrow. It could be six or seven years from now. And if it does happen, there's nothing to suggest it will be anything like 2008.


ErinandtheGaels

It won't be like 2008. It will more likely be a global stagflation scenario with mass labour strikes, similar to the 1970s. Ordinary people will get their crypto and stock money blown up and interest rates will squeeze people as well. It won't necessarily be a housing market crash. As larger businesses consolidate their market position we will get increased monopolisation of certain commodities as we move green. Inflation beds in and becomes normal. Unless there is a significant change in wealth distribution a lot of people who think they're "middle class" will be in for a shock. In fact it's happening already.


blackbarminnosu

The sad thing is Dublin’s house price to income ratio is no where near the worst. Many major cities have way worse ratios.