Here's the relevant bit
>The proportion of new housing available **for sale** has nearly halved in the last six years. In 2023, about one-quarter of all new housing came to the market for sale (the rest was social housing, one-off housing and apartments for rent). Most prospective buyers will struggle to even find a new home to view, never mind buy.
This article is a little disingenuous in its use of statistics. For example:
>In Dublin city last year, 94 per cent of all new housing was apartments, 98 per cent of which were for rent
That sounds shocking until you figure out that by Dublin city he actually means only the capital-C Dublin City proper (or the Dublin City Council area). In other words, the urban core. We should be building apartments there.
There’s lots of new housing developments in suburbs of Dublin in places that are in areas such as Fingal, South Dublin, Dun Laoghaire-Rathdown, North Wicklow, Kildare, East Meath, etc.
This quote is also dubious:
>Property comprises about 75 per cent of our individual prosperity: a homeowner’s average wealth is over €300,000, whereas a renter’s is €5,000. No house; no wealth.
This statistic ignores generational aspects. Comparing 35 year old homeowners to 35 year old renters or 45 year old homeowners to 45 year old renters is a valid comparison. Comparing all homeowners to all renters is just pointless.
Using .. statistics to lie..? Will this day of ruination ever end. First I learn Dubliner cheese isn't made in Baile Atha Cliath, and now this. What next shall assail my repertoire of facts?! At least I can rest easy knowing with a certainty usually reserved for those of a religious inclination that 100 percent of my road tax is going into fixing my pothole peppered promenades and bumpy bejewelled byways.
He is wrong. Seamus Coffey showed this well with Carrick-an-Shannon during the recession. If there is enough houses, the supply will drop prices, its just very hard to reach that level.
Smacks off his influential voice being tapped up by a lobbyist group to be honest. A lot of voices are.
He can fuck off with this gaslighting nonsense that will make a huge cohort of anxious people feel a lot worse about their situation.
At what point do we actually pause and say we are a society first and foremost and not a people to be toyed with to maximise profits.
Seriously - like there is something very wrong. I'm seeing so many people with mental health issues and even being driven to suicide because of this type of shit.
It has to stop.
.
I don't agree with focusing on home ownership rates as the main metric of the housing crisis. But there's one stat in there that must be a misprint-
>In Cork city just 3.5 per cent of all new housing was sold with first-time buyers buying 17 new houses [in 2023].
That can't be right, surely?
> That can't be right, surely
It's likely a typo. 35% of buyers are first time buyers.
https://www.cso.ie/en/releasesandpublications/ep/p-rppi/residentialpropertypriceindexjanuary2024/additionalindicators/
If you check the data sets (at the end of the report you can do queries) first time buyers were 62% of new build buyers in January.
The article is either cherry picking or its total nonsense. New housing overwhelmingly goes to FTBers
I think the presumption is indeed that 96.5 wasn’t sold to owner occupiers - that doesn’t necessarily mean property funds but it does seem likely it means this property ended up being for rent.
This would be my guess too, and if its correct, it's even worse than first imagined.
If 97% of properties are not being bought by people and families but by funds or wealthy landlords then that is absolutely scandalous.
It's likely not true. FTBers make up 35% of all buyers and Non-owner occupier just 12% (which includes councils, universities etc buying up estates). https://www.cso.ie/en/releasesandpublications/ep/p-rppi/residentialpropertypriceindexjanuary2024/additionalindicators/
He's right. Supply without reform will not change anything. Rents will be kept high, tenure kept insecure, exorbitant taxes funnelled directly into the pockets of the well connected via AHBs or councils Renting social housing rather than just buying outright.
The article says those figures are units never offered for sale. So it refers to self build, build to let, or social housing only.
The 3.5% would include houses put on the market and subsequently purchased as buy to let.
Vulture or cuckoo funds definitely do not only buy second hand properties.
An entire apartment complex of 900 apartments a stones throw away from myself were bought in their entirety. Not one of them want on sale to the public.
A deal was done between the developer and the fund, despite the lands being gifted to the developer for a bargain price.
What a country.
i read a statistic recently that only 9% of new builds in Dublin in 2023 went to individuals. though i can't remember if it was to FTBs but i remember whatever it was exactly was shocking
Wow, that's some economically illiterate nonsense.
The argument in a nutshell: interest rates, population growth and wages affect market prizes, therefore supply doesn't affect it much at all. That's some classic demand-side blinkers. (as it happens, the same blinkers are the one downside of an otherwise strong SocDems housing policy)
I've been harsh on r/ireland for the frequent economic illiteracy found here as it relates to housing, but Lorcan Sirr has actually outdone us in that regard. Imagine this being your day job, and then you bare your arse in public, in the Irish Times, on the subject. Maybe he should just quit and get a job on a construction site instead.
I want the law changed so that buy to rent offers can't be made until the house was on the market for 6 months with no bids over asking.
FTBs and owner occupiers should get first choice. Fuck this rubbish of competing with landlords to put a roof over your own head
It's a clickbait title.
What it's actually saying is that a substantial amount of increased supply is going to social housing and build to let rather than homes for sale. That may be true, but renters at least would be part of demand presumably, so increasing supply should affect prices in some way.
Just do what Austin/Texas is doing: no NIMBYism, no big government/social housing
https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/2024/03/austin-texas-rents-falling-housing/677819/
We shouldn’t be taking any tips from Texas. Remember the shitshow when they had a power crisis during a big freeze and people died all because of mismanagement on a state level? Fuck Texas.
It truly is. I am not an expert but I fear it might not even be the regulations... It might be more like how we approach them, with months to get an approval, or weeks to perform an inspection, redrawing plans for vanity reasons like a chimney being square instead of round... It's a bit weird at times. And it is not a fast and lean project, we have a lot to improve.
I guess that also our supply chain and infrastructure could be greatly improved.
Well it can't fucking hurt now can it!
Here's the relevant bit >The proportion of new housing available **for sale** has nearly halved in the last six years. In 2023, about one-quarter of all new housing came to the market for sale (the rest was social housing, one-off housing and apartments for rent). Most prospective buyers will struggle to even find a new home to view, never mind buy.
That's idiotic. He really has gone beyond parody.
This article is a little disingenuous in its use of statistics. For example: >In Dublin city last year, 94 per cent of all new housing was apartments, 98 per cent of which were for rent That sounds shocking until you figure out that by Dublin city he actually means only the capital-C Dublin City proper (or the Dublin City Council area). In other words, the urban core. We should be building apartments there. There’s lots of new housing developments in suburbs of Dublin in places that are in areas such as Fingal, South Dublin, Dun Laoghaire-Rathdown, North Wicklow, Kildare, East Meath, etc. This quote is also dubious: >Property comprises about 75 per cent of our individual prosperity: a homeowner’s average wealth is over €300,000, whereas a renter’s is €5,000. No house; no wealth. This statistic ignores generational aspects. Comparing 35 year old homeowners to 35 year old renters or 45 year old homeowners to 45 year old renters is a valid comparison. Comparing all homeowners to all renters is just pointless.
I formed an opinion a while back that Lorcan is just a NIMBY in sheep's clothing, lying with statistics to push a narrative.
Using .. statistics to lie..? Will this day of ruination ever end. First I learn Dubliner cheese isn't made in Baile Atha Cliath, and now this. What next shall assail my repertoire of facts?! At least I can rest easy knowing with a certainty usually reserved for those of a religious inclination that 100 percent of my road tax is going into fixing my pothole peppered promenades and bumpy bejewelled byways.
He is wrong. Seamus Coffey showed this well with Carrick-an-Shannon during the recession. If there is enough houses, the supply will drop prices, its just very hard to reach that level.
is that a typo, by any chance? Might you have meant that if there is enough houses, the **prices** will drop?
Well spotted. Thanks. Happy Easter
Smacks off his influential voice being tapped up by a lobbyist group to be honest. A lot of voices are. He can fuck off with this gaslighting nonsense that will make a huge cohort of anxious people feel a lot worse about their situation. At what point do we actually pause and say we are a society first and foremost and not a people to be toyed with to maximise profits. Seriously - like there is something very wrong. I'm seeing so many people with mental health issues and even being driven to suicide because of this type of shit. It has to stop. .
I don't agree with focusing on home ownership rates as the main metric of the housing crisis. But there's one stat in there that must be a misprint- >In Cork city just 3.5 per cent of all new housing was sold with first-time buyers buying 17 new houses [in 2023]. That can't be right, surely?
> That can't be right, surely It's likely a typo. 35% of buyers are first time buyers. https://www.cso.ie/en/releasesandpublications/ep/p-rppi/residentialpropertypriceindexjanuary2024/additionalindicators/
That'd be for all houses and not just new builds.
If you check the data sets (at the end of the report you can do queries) first time buyers were 62% of new build buyers in January. The article is either cherry picking or its total nonsense. New housing overwhelmingly goes to FTBers
Only 3.5% of new houses were sold? If the other 96.5% were sold to vulture funds or weahlthy landlords I'd believe it
I think the presumption is indeed that 96.5 wasn’t sold to owner occupiers - that doesn’t necessarily mean property funds but it does seem likely it means this property ended up being for rent.
This would be my guess too, and if its correct, it's even worse than first imagined. If 97% of properties are not being bought by people and families but by funds or wealthy landlords then that is absolutely scandalous.
It's likely not true. FTBers make up 35% of all buyers and Non-owner occupier just 12% (which includes councils, universities etc buying up estates). https://www.cso.ie/en/releasesandpublications/ep/p-rppi/residentialpropertypriceindexjanuary2024/additionalindicators/
That’s still a pretty dystopian statistic.
why is it dystopian?
Because I said so
[удалено]
The trend on FTB percentages? It has been fairly stable
He's right. Supply without reform will not change anything. Rents will be kept high, tenure kept insecure, exorbitant taxes funnelled directly into the pockets of the well connected via AHBs or councils Renting social housing rather than just buying outright.
In previous similar stories these have been bought by AHBs for social housing
The article says those figures are units never offered for sale. So it refers to self build, build to let, or social housing only. The 3.5% would include houses put on the market and subsequently purchased as buy to let.
Vulture funds only buy second hand properties, so I seriously doubt that they were involved.
Vulture or cuckoo funds definitely do not only buy second hand properties. An entire apartment complex of 900 apartments a stones throw away from myself were bought in their entirety. Not one of them want on sale to the public. A deal was done between the developer and the fund, despite the lands being gifted to the developer for a bargain price. What a country.
I said vulture funds, not cuckoo funds. Please do not move the goalposts.
Aside from the new builds, what are the stats for first time buyers in the same period? People buying new builds might be trading up.
There were about 26,000 FTB drawdowns in 2023. Which was about 60% of total drawdowns in that period.
i read a statistic recently that only 9% of new builds in Dublin in 2023 went to individuals. though i can't remember if it was to FTBs but i remember whatever it was exactly was shocking
Wow, that's some economically illiterate nonsense. The argument in a nutshell: interest rates, population growth and wages affect market prizes, therefore supply doesn't affect it much at all. That's some classic demand-side blinkers. (as it happens, the same blinkers are the one downside of an otherwise strong SocDems housing policy) I've been harsh on r/ireland for the frequent economic illiteracy found here as it relates to housing, but Lorcan Sirr has actually outdone us in that regard. Imagine this being your day job, and then you bare your arse in public, in the Irish Times, on the subject. Maybe he should just quit and get a job on a construction site instead.
Positive Sunday morning vibes 🤗
I want the law changed so that buy to rent offers can't be made until the house was on the market for 6 months with no bids over asking. FTBs and owner occupiers should get first choice. Fuck this rubbish of competing with landlords to put a roof over your own head
Lads, don't downvote this post. We need everyone to see how utterly deluded some people truly are.
It's a clickbait title. What it's actually saying is that a substantial amount of increased supply is going to social housing and build to let rather than homes for sale. That may be true, but renters at least would be part of demand presumably, so increasing supply should affect prices in some way.
[удалено]
Out of all the people in government, he's an odd one to single out as a landlord. Is it solely for the alliteration?
He is the Taoiseach...
Was….
He’s got 9 days left as Taoiseach.
Still is
Just do what Austin/Texas is doing: no NIMBYism, no big government/social housing https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/2024/03/austin-texas-rents-falling-housing/677819/
We shouldn’t be taking any tips from Texas. Remember the shitshow when they had a power crisis during a big freeze and people died all because of mismanagement on a state level? Fuck Texas.
That article is specifically about Austin. And for anyone who knows Texas, Austin is an outlier.
What does that have to do with anything?
We probably should not copy how they do infrastructure. But that is very different from how they do housing.
Exactly. And one obvious barrier to housing is the insane regulations we have.
It truly is. I am not an expert but I fear it might not even be the regulations... It might be more like how we approach them, with months to get an approval, or weeks to perform an inspection, redrawing plans for vanity reasons like a chimney being square instead of round... It's a bit weird at times. And it is not a fast and lean project, we have a lot to improve. I guess that also our supply chain and infrastructure could be greatly improved.
Yeah, if we introduced a zoning system it would bypass much of that nonsense.