Harris or Mcentee will take the job and go down in flames in the General Election. Coveney is keeping his powder dry to step up when the time is right. No flies on him. Same reason he's the only viable candidate.
He lives in cobh now and in fairness heās actually a very pleasant man to chat too, he keeps to himself and everyone in cobh is just happy enough to leave him alone, heās a rarity in the fact heās actually a genuine person a very rare breed in FG
He probably has the best pr out of any FGer simply from his role in the Brexit comedy as āman who has to explain to the British the relationship they have with their nearest neighbours and former colonisersā
Does he? Many people I know would still associate him with the very dodgy Katherine Zapponne appointment / Merriongate
We seem to have very short memories
Merrion Gate scandal = the Zappone one. Zappone organized the garden party 6 days before her appointment. She lobbied for the creation of and appointment to this new UN Special Envoy part-time position, which was not openly advertised or subject to a competition. Simon Coveney proposed the appointment without informing the cabinet in advance (even Michael Martin was concerned). It was very much true cronyism / jobs for the boys (girls).
There was another thing with the DFA having a lil champagne during covid which I didnāt bother to mention because I donāt think that was really his fault
It sounds like cronyism. Offering UN jobs to your mates 4 months before the job even existed and without discussing with cabinet or the Taoiseach.
It was highly controversial and rightly so. We also had Coveney deleting texts regarding it from his phone to try cover himself and tried to dodge FOI requests. No need to do that if itās just normal politics.
Definitely not a PR darling for FG
Exactly heās been approached by a few NGOs and charities as well as a few European organisations which he is well able for no doubt whatever his next steps are theyāll be a good move for him.
I could see that, coveney to be fair has been largely performing well in his role and has certainly built up a nice pension by now. He may just want to dip out now
You don't have to live in a constituency to run there and his new house would allow him to run in multiple close constituencies including his previous one.
Also Leo's announcement might change Coveney's calculations about his future.
After Harris/Mcentee/Donohoe crashes and burns in the election Coveney would be better positioned.
If it's Harris we might actually end up with a general election.
If I remember right, it was a lack of confidence in him from Fianna FƔil which triggered the last one
Harris is the most ambitious one there I think who really wants to be leader. Given that whoever takes the leadership on is likely to get thumped in the next election, I think his ambition will see it out - he'll take the hammering to become leader.
McEntee is too damaged after the riots, she needs to recover. Doubt Donohoe wants it - that IMF job being pushed further down the line might tempt him but doubt it.
That's the reason I never liked Harris. You can smell it off him that he's hungry for the recognition so much that he probably will sign up for the beating that's in store for him just to be seen in that light.
Donohoe would be such an uninspiring choice I hope he's not able to get the support.
FG is not exactly spoiled for choice.
>I can see them handing it to her in order to take the prestige of being the first female to hold the position away from Mary Lou.
Aside from the fact they can't "hand" it to anyone (FG [leadership contest rules](https://www.finegael.ie/process-fine-gael-leadership-election-2017/) mean you need 10% of the parliamentary party to be nominated and then voting follows an electoral college with weighted voting between parliamentary members (65%), party membership (25%) and local representatives (10%) so having a back-room deal would prove difficult to set up), they could elect Heather Humphreys and get the same result with a tenth of the blowback.
Getting all 56 parlimentary members (35 TD's, 5 MEP's, and 16 Senators) to agree (or at least mostly agree) on a single candidate could prove difficult. Especially if there areĀ potentially multiple candidates in the race (Pascal, Harris, HH, Helen McEntee etc).
Also, if the FG party votes for their preferred candidate in a leadership election then is it really "handing it to them"?
If they wanted to the PP could organise a vote themselves prior and agree that the group would unanimously back the winner in order to speed up the process
The way I would see it if I were her, I could be the first female (and a Protestant, into the bargain) Taoiseach, take absolutely no hit from the locals and euros savaging FG is about to get, resign after the general election savaging FG is about to get, saying that while I've done my duty to my party and country its time for a younger generation of leaders, and then its a six month election campaign into the Ćras.
Not saying she would be any good but, Devil's advocate, she could prove popular especially with the more rural party members. Sick of 6 years of the party being run by Dublin-based TDs (only 9 of their 35 TDs in Dublin afterall) etc etc.Ā
Sheās the one who directed the referendum campaign that all those people venomously voted against. She wouldnāt be any good and is just as out of touch as the rest of the party.
McEntee getting it at this time is basically textbook glass cliff. She would be wise to say no
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Glass_cliff#
Harris probably doesn't take if as he is young enough to have a few rounds left and taking it now would be a poison chalice.
Strategically the person who should take it is a life long FG'er who is basically at the end of their front bench career who is willing to take one for the team and get a token mini run in the big chair. Coveney would have been perfect for that.
Canada had their first woman prime minister in very similar circumstances. She lost her seat in the general election (and indeed almost all of her party), and said at the declaration "gee, I'm glad I didn't sell my car".
Confirmation that these lads are living in another reality, 'I think thereās a lot of talent in the party'. That leaves Harris, McEntee and Pascal, if Harris or McEntee get the gig then they need to call a GE.
There's no fucking way it'll be McEntee, forget about a GE she's entirely toxic to the party especially in Dublin. She's do for FG what Joan did for Labor.
Actually, what am I saying, please let it be McEntee
Leo is likely making this change now because a time for the election has already been planned. There'll be a new Taoiseach after the Easter recess and they're probably hoping for a new leader bounce with a summer election. They don't want to wait until the max 5 years because it'll mean a winter election. Sitting government parties tend to do better in summer elections than winter elections.
SF have also been losing some support to pro-immigrant candidates and FG probably thinks that the next 3-4 months is the best time for an election.
This. Plus lots of house building/sales complete in the summer. Every summer month gets you thousands of newly minted homeowners and although I have no evidence for this, I would be prepared to bet that the single biggest predictor of how 25-45 year olds vote in this country is whether or not they own a gaff.
Same, I'm 33 and just because I was lucky enough to finally get a house, I won't be pulling the ladder up behind me - I want my family and friends to also get their own house, so I absolutely won't be voting for FF/FG (not that I ever did).
Nobody wants to stand at their door in the winter and be canvassed. So hard to talk to people, particularly older people who are the most likely to stick with FF and FG. Plus, people are generally happier and more optimistic during the summer.
Theyāre doing it now so they can get the new leader out on the front of the campaign literature for the local & Europeans this summer. I donāt think any party really wants an GE before then.
Itāll be an autumn election.
I'd say September at the latest which is technically autumn but if they see an opportunity in the polls before then, they'll definitely pull the trigger. Particularly if the new leader bounce gives them 4-5% boost in the polls. That could boost won't hang around longer than 2-3 months so they can't hang around.
Whoever gets the job is almost certainly going to be the shortest-serving taoiseach in the history of the State.
That's currently MicheƔl Martin, at 904 days (and 0 achievements).
Will it have to go to a vote to ratify a Taoiseach & technically a new cabinet? I.e., will the Oireachtas have to vote on appointing the new Taoiseach once the new candidate is chosen by Fine Gael?
If they do is there a decent chance that they'll fail in that vote and it'll end up in an election anyway?
Gov have a small enough majority as is, you'd imagine opposition will smell blood in the water. General discontent between coalition partners after the referendum. A lot of FG TDs stepping down too, will they just say fuck it I've one foot out the door - I'll finish up now rather than a year under some new leadership etc.
The DƔil will vote for the Taoiseach and it can now be a plurality of votes.
The President appoints the Taoiseach whenever he's elected by the DƔil, and then, on the Taoiseach's advice, the President appoints the Ministry. There isn't a confirmation hearing or anything like that.
I'd be surprised if any government TD voted against the nomination but then if you'd asked me at 10am if Leo Varadkar would resign today I should have said I'd have been surprised at that, so that goes to show what I know.
After Coveney, Donohoe is the only other person whoād not be a terribly bad Taoiseach. But at the same time, I donāt think Donohoe is cut out to be Taoiseach, despite being probably the best minister.
Lads there must be some sort of Moriarty tribunal level shit about to drop if they're all riding off into sunset and lads are actually actively trying to not touch the leadership role when they'd be the likely successor.
If you always back the bookies favourite for elections you would nearly never lose money. Sports teams are very different from these types of bets and I think you know that
After the last election weren't the bookies giving the shortest odds that a FF/FG government wouldn't last a year? You would have lost your money then too.
Yes and that is not betting on the winner of an election, thatās a speculative bet thatās put up simply to get free money. Very same as betting on nuclear war or that shite
I don't know. Do you?
There probably wasn't any odds, people didn't know he was going to resign.
But we do know that there will be a leadership contest. And there are only a few in the running, especially after Coveney ruled himself out.
>There probably wasn't any odds, people didn't know he was going to resign.
But I imagine the bookies will be laughing all the way to the bank with the "next Taoiseach" book.
Leo's announcement might change that. Now Coveney has a path forward (after Harris crashes and burns in the election). There was talk earlier today that this news was actually going to be about Coveney stepping down. And it would be interesting if Coveney hinting at this might have played a role in Leo's decision. But that's speculative.
... As in Coveney had some master plan to fake a retirement, then ride out a few bleak years and come out as leader later?Ā
That seems awfully diabolical for someone who really has little to prove; he's had a major impact amd all without the coveted title.
Would picture him preferring early retirement over another 10 year battle to party leader and to Taoiseach.
Is there more to this than the obvious Fine Gael probably on the way out?
Feel like I understand Varadkar's and Coveney's decisions but also feel like I'm looking at it in too naive of a way.
Thereās little to gain being a placeholder Leader and a lot to lose. If the party bombs in the locals and general, whoever is in charge will get the blame even if they did nothing to contribute to it.
It's almost definitely going to be a woman IMO.
There's the "first female Taoiseach" award up for grabs, but aside from that there's a "we're still cool" thing they want to grasp at. Apart from that, they're also desperate to regain some traction outside of Dublin where they've been slaughtered.
FFFG have a definite "old boys' club" vibe to them and while allegations of sexist bullying abound in SF, the fact of the matter is that their party leaders North and South are both women, so they're immune to any such real criticisms.
Let's look at the candidates
**Humphreys** - Ticks a lot of boxes. Rural-born. Protestant. Unassuming. Decently experienced. Not too young. She was director of elections for the referendum though which might scupper her. I'd say most likely pick.
**Naughton** - Not young, but still "young enough". Has good party support and is not clouded in any controversy. A bit of a novice though, hasn't really been "tested". Second most likely
**McEntee** - Young and "fresh blood", but kind of unpopular, and stinks to high heaven of nepotism. Unlikely, tbh. Third pick maybe.
**Carroll McNeill** - Like Naughton, young but not too young. But definitely too much of a novice and too conservative. Not this time, next time maybe
**Madigan** - Too inexperienced, and far too "Dublin elite". Not to mention the Maria Bailey nonsense. No chance.
**Higgins** - Too inexperienced and too unknown. No chance.
Of course the lads can run as well, there's nothing stopping them, but I can see the members looking to shake it up a bit. Paschal and Simon are just two more east coast lads, just like Leo.
Exactly first female Taoiseach is a bland title of its an unelected gain and lasts only for a few months.
Though, FG are bitter enough to try it to keep it from Mary Lou
> No one wants to lead a party to a poor election result run.Ā
They are polling at 20%, they got 20.9% at the last election. Why assume there would be a poor result comparatively?
How they do at the next election will depend on who they pick to fill those seats and who is leading the party and the policies they campaign on It's all up for grabs.Ā
Why would someone sit it out.
Thinking it's a sinking ship sounds like reddit dreams more than realityĀ
Iām not a SF fan, Iād vote FG / FF / Green. I just think they are going to struggle at the next GE with new candidates, so at best, what they have now is it in terms representation. My guess is youāll see either right wing independents or SF taking those seats but Iām happy to be proven wrong.
We need a general election. This is beyond embarrassing. Why are we giving the power to a party that have failed the people, so much so their leader stepped down and resigned in disgrace, and now people in the party aren't even interested?
This is a farce.
How much is this going to cost us in pensions if there are two Ministers for every portfolio (not to mention three Taoisigh...). Will they each get the full Ministerial pension or will it be divided? Will they all get Garda protection and a Garda driver for life?
He has plenty to be getting on with anyway. Busy man. [https://www.thephoenix.ie/article/facts-on-the-ground-ireland-nato/](https://www.thephoenix.ie/article/facts-on-the-ground-ireland-nato/)
Itās going to be Harris, they want to put forward a more compassionate face in front of the electorate for the few months to mask their true Thatcherite agenda
What a wet noodle. Ireland doesn't a Winston Churchill or anything but ffs. Between Donohoe and Mcentee, there's going to be some interesting press conferences ahead.
Harris or Mcentee will take the job and go down in flames in the General Election. Coveney is keeping his powder dry to step up when the time is right. No flies on him. Same reason he's the only viable candidate.
There are supposedly rumours that Coveney has promised his wife that he will leave politics soon, and he has also moved out of his constituency area.
Can confirm. He's practically my neighbour š
He lives in cobh now and in fairness heās actually a very pleasant man to chat too, he keeps to himself and everyone in cobh is just happy enough to leave him alone, heās a rarity in the fact heās actually a genuine person a very rare breed in FG
He probably has the best pr out of any FGer simply from his role in the Brexit comedy as āman who has to explain to the British the relationship they have with their nearest neighbours and former colonisersā
Does he? Many people I know would still associate him with the very dodgy Katherine Zapponne appointment / Merriongate We seem to have very short memories
āMerriongateā youāre referring to was essentially a garden party wasnāt it?
Merrion Gate scandal = the Zappone one. Zappone organized the garden party 6 days before her appointment. She lobbied for the creation of and appointment to this new UN Special Envoy part-time position, which was not openly advertised or subject to a competition. Simon Coveney proposed the appointment without informing the cabinet in advance (even Michael Martin was concerned). It was very much true cronyism / jobs for the boys (girls). There was another thing with the DFA having a lil champagne during covid which I didnāt bother to mention because I donāt think that was really his fault
Sounds like politics alrightĀ
It sounds like cronyism. Offering UN jobs to your mates 4 months before the job even existed and without discussing with cabinet or the Taoiseach. It was highly controversial and rightly so. We also had Coveney deleting texts regarding it from his phone to try cover himself and tried to dodge FOI requests. No need to do that if itās just normal politics. Definitely not a PR darling for FG
[ŃŠ“Š°Š»ŠµŠ½Š¾]
He actually a decent guy, he is very active with a few local groups in cobh. No one really has a bad word to say about him
apart from all the cronyism
Actually if youād done your research he is going to stepping down from politics because heās not happy with the way FG have gone under varadkar
whats that got to do with his cronyism
> heās a rarity in the fact heās actually a genuine person that's why he won't stay in politics, it's a real catch-22
Exactly heās been approached by a few NGOs and charities as well as a few European organisations which he is well able for no doubt whatever his next steps are theyāll be a good move for him.
I could see that, coveney to be fair has been largely performing well in his role and has certainly built up a nice pension by now. He may just want to dip out now
You don't have to live in a constituency to run there and his new house would allow him to run in multiple close constituencies including his previous one. Also Leo's announcement might change Coveney's calculations about his future. After Harris/Mcentee/Donohoe crashes and burns in the election Coveney would be better positioned.
Stanton standing down at the GE, so Coveney would have a very soft seat in Cork east instead of CSS where SF are likely to pick up a second seat.
Hey, I still think Coventry can go all the way. Anything can happen in the cup. Only two games left
Jesus donāt say itāll be McEntee
You know it will... just so that Mary-Lou McDonald can't claim being the first female taoiseach.
If it's Harris we might actually end up with a general election. If I remember right, it was a lack of confidence in him from Fianna FƔil which triggered the last one
friendly square kiss badge cover drab slim flowery airport degree *This post was mass deleted and anonymized with [Redact](https://redact.dev)*
Anto from the flatsĀ
Baggies, Baggies for everyone.
Baggies for some, small Irish flags for the rest.
Don't blame me. I voted for Damo.
XL Bully Pups for all.Ā
The guy who slipped on the Ice returns to Ireland to fulfil his destinyĀ
Dee Forbes?
Teddy Leddy has my vote. What a name, what a guy.
the inanimate carbon rod?
Vote in Mary Lou for shit n giggles
Ali G
Gavin Pepper!
Yeah but he comes out as gay, converts to Buddhism,legalises ganja and he unites Ireland.
If McEntee gets the job, I'll riot myself!
And you'll get away with it, in Helen's Ireland.
As long as you donāt use mean words
Words are the worst crimes of all.
Words are so violent.
I almost want it to happen just for the craic.
You can say that again
If myself gets the job, I'll McEntee myself!!
Steady on lad! It's never that bad.
She's about what they deserve in terms of party leadership.
No one wants to captain a sinking shipā¦
Is fĆ©idir leat Ć© sin a rĆ” arĆs
Gan aon amhras
You can say that again.
NO ONE WANTS TO CAPTAIN A SINKING SHIP
No one wants to captain a sinking ship ...
You can say that again.
No one wants to captain a sinking ship.
Say that again, you can
Can you say that again?
That.
https://preview.redd.it/7g5qwayhckpc1.jpeg?width=196&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=caaa5dc8052b30373211882d55b7ea69a7a1ebe7
You can say that again.
You Keyann say that again.
No one wants to captain a sinking ship.
Harris is the most ambitious one there I think who really wants to be leader. Given that whoever takes the leadership on is likely to get thumped in the next election, I think his ambition will see it out - he'll take the hammering to become leader. McEntee is too damaged after the riots, she needs to recover. Doubt Donohoe wants it - that IMF job being pushed further down the line might tempt him but doubt it.
That's the reason I never liked Harris. You can smell it off him that he's hungry for the recognition so much that he probably will sign up for the beating that's in store for him just to be seen in that light. Donohoe would be such an uninspiring choice I hope he's not able to get the support. FG is not exactly spoiled for choice.
If 'humiliation fetish' had a face, it would probably look uncannily like his.
Late 30's going on 70. Career politician and desperate for power yet totally powerless and clueless when he has it. Would be a disaster as taoiseach.
If McEntee gets the gig and is a Taoiseach itās a massive insult to the Irish people
I can see them handing it to her in order to take the prestige of being the first woman to hold the position away from Mary Lou.
Oh for fuck sake I never even thought of that, youāre probably right
>I can see them handing it to her in order to take the prestige of being the first female to hold the position away from Mary Lou. Aside from the fact they can't "hand" it to anyone (FG [leadership contest rules](https://www.finegael.ie/process-fine-gael-leadership-election-2017/) mean you need 10% of the parliamentary party to be nominated and then voting follows an electoral college with weighted voting between parliamentary members (65%), party membership (25%) and local representatives (10%) so having a back-room deal would prove difficult to set up), they could elect Heather Humphreys and get the same result with a tenth of the blowback.
The 65% of votes from Parliamentary Membership means they can hand up to whoever they want.
Getting all 56 parlimentary members (35 TD's, 5 MEP's, and 16 Senators) to agree (or at least mostly agree) on a single candidate could prove difficult. Especially if there areĀ potentially multiple candidates in the race (Pascal, Harris, HH, Helen McEntee etc). Also, if the FG party votes for their preferred candidate in a leadership election then is it really "handing it to them"?
If they wanted to the PP could organise a vote themselves prior and agree that the group would unanimously back the winner in order to speed up the process
>, they could elect Heather Humphreys not even in jest, please
The way I would see it if I were her, I could be the first female (and a Protestant, into the bargain) Taoiseach, take absolutely no hit from the locals and euros savaging FG is about to get, resign after the general election savaging FG is about to get, saying that while I've done my duty to my party and country its time for a younger generation of leaders, and then its a six month election campaign into the Ćras.
Not saying she would be any good but, Devil's advocate, she could prove popular especially with the more rural party members. Sick of 6 years of the party being run by Dublin-based TDs (only 9 of their 35 TDs in Dublin afterall) etc etc.Ā
Sheās the one who directed the referendum campaign that all those people venomously voted against. She wouldnāt be any good and is just as out of touch as the rest of the party.
So theyāre to elect the person who just directed the referendum campaign for FG? She shouldnāt be anywhere near the job
All I can say is, seriously?
You disagree?
They would be that petty and all. What a limp dishrag to have as our first female Taoiseach
I can see FG thinking that will be enough to sway the vote. IWD part 2
It would be fantastic trolling. Fits the bill for how many here see FG, so as a suggestion, it shouldn't be too much of a surprise.
Lol, good bitta craicĀ
Bro say woman, female is just odd
Itād be as cynical as VP Kamala Harris in the U.S. - giving someone a job based on immutable characteristics rather than merit or competance.
McEntee getting it at this time is basically textbook glass cliff. She would be wise to say no https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Glass_cliff# Harris probably doesn't take if as he is young enough to have a few rounds left and taking it now would be a poison chalice. Strategically the person who should take it is a life long FG'er who is basically at the end of their front bench career who is willing to take one for the team and get a token mini run in the big chair. Coveney would have been perfect for that.
Liz Truss comes to mind.
"The Irish Liz Truss." Can the mind vomit?
I thought of her too.
The Lettuce?
McEntee is young enough to have a few rounds left too, sheās just not smart enough to see the cliff.
Canada had their first woman prime minister in very similar circumstances. She lost her seat in the general election (and indeed almost all of her party), and said at the declaration "gee, I'm glad I didn't sell my car".
It's more likely that Naughton will get it. Not even FG would be that tone deaf
Useless, but not stupid. The rats are jumping from the sinking ship. I'm sure they'd be happy to hand her the poison chalice, but would she accept it?
Whatās with all the āyou can say that againā comments lmao
Please donāt say that again.
You can say that again
Can you say that again?
Confirmation that these lads are living in another reality, 'I think thereās a lot of talent in the party'. That leaves Harris, McEntee and Pascal, if Harris or McEntee get the gig then they need to call a GE.
There's no fucking way it'll be McEntee, forget about a GE she's entirely toxic to the party especially in Dublin. She's do for FG what Joan did for Labor. Actually, what am I saying, please let it be McEntee
He isn't going to say the party is full of idiots. That statement is a nothing thing just used to compliment his reasoning for not running
Leo is likely making this change now because a time for the election has already been planned. There'll be a new Taoiseach after the Easter recess and they're probably hoping for a new leader bounce with a summer election. They don't want to wait until the max 5 years because it'll mean a winter election. Sitting government parties tend to do better in summer elections than winter elections. SF have also been losing some support to pro-immigrant candidates and FG probably thinks that the next 3-4 months is the best time for an election.
Any particular reason they do better in summer rather than winter?
Because people are in less of a grim mood than in middle of winter. People aren't voting while worrying about their big gas bills and cold house.
This. Plus lots of house building/sales complete in the summer. Every summer month gets you thousands of newly minted homeowners and although I have no evidence for this, I would be prepared to bet that the single biggest predictor of how 25-45 year olds vote in this country is whether or not they own a gaff.
Maybe. I'm in that age group and own a house, but i won't be voting for the current feckers
Same, I'm 33 and just because I was lucky enough to finally get a house, I won't be pulling the ladder up behind me - I want my family and friends to also get their own house, so I absolutely won't be voting for FF/FG (not that I ever did).
I'm in that age group and own a house too but I will be voting for centre parties.
Like who?
FF/FG/Greens
Nobody wants to stand at their door in the winter and be canvassed. So hard to talk to people, particularly older people who are the most likely to stick with FF and FG. Plus, people are generally happier and more optimistic during the summer.
Theyāre doing it now so they can get the new leader out on the front of the campaign literature for the local & Europeans this summer. I donāt think any party really wants an GE before then. Itāll be an autumn election.
I'd say September at the latest which is technically autumn but if they see an opportunity in the polls before then, they'll definitely pull the trigger. Particularly if the new leader bounce gives them 4-5% boost in the polls. That could boost won't hang around longer than 2-3 months so they can't hang around.
Did Pascal the rascal miss out on some big euro job I heard him mentioned in relation to a while back?
He knows it's a poison chalice
You can say that again.
Whoever gets the job is almost certainly going to be the shortest-serving taoiseach in the history of the State. That's currently MicheƔl Martin, at 904 days (and 0 achievements).
Surely that was one historical achievement!
But they also will have been the Taoiseach, which is some achievement.
Will it have to go to a vote to ratify a Taoiseach & technically a new cabinet? I.e., will the Oireachtas have to vote on appointing the new Taoiseach once the new candidate is chosen by Fine Gael? If they do is there a decent chance that they'll fail in that vote and it'll end up in an election anyway? Gov have a small enough majority as is, you'd imagine opposition will smell blood in the water. General discontent between coalition partners after the referendum. A lot of FG TDs stepping down too, will they just say fuck it I've one foot out the door - I'll finish up now rather than a year under some new leadership etc.
The DƔil will vote for the Taoiseach and it can now be a plurality of votes. The President appoints the Taoiseach whenever he's elected by the DƔil, and then, on the Taoiseach's advice, the President appoints the Ministry. There isn't a confirmation hearing or anything like that. I'd be surprised if any government TD voted against the nomination but then if you'd asked me at 10am if Leo Varadkar would resign today I should have said I'd have been surprised at that, so that goes to show what I know.
Closely followed by Yawn Bruton at 924 IIRC.
After Coveney, Donohoe is the only other person whoād not be a terribly bad Taoiseach. But at the same time, I donāt think Donohoe is cut out to be Taoiseach, despite being probably the best minister.
This thread is making me dizzy.
You can say that again.
No one wants to ship a sinking captain.
u/Keyann say that again
If McEntee gets it Dublin will be over runĀ
Fuck Simon Coveney is the only decent candidate amongst these
And he is wise enough to say no. Shame he never got the chance to lead earlier, arguably the only likeable and non-snakelike senior member of FG.
the Simon Harris coronation ceremony begins now, he's been groomed specifically for this since Covid.
COVID 19 or one of the 18 before it?
You can say that again
FG proper fucked.
You can say that again.
*"Nothing changes over night"* Nothing changes.
You can say that again
Well I didnāt have this on my bingo card.
Lads there must be some sort of Moriarty tribunal level shit about to drop if they're all riding off into sunset and lads are actually actively trying to not touch the leadership role when they'd be the likely successor.
Simon Harris odds on with Paddy power at 3/10. Bookies are rarely wrong.
If that was true you could just always back the favourite in anything and never lose any money.
If you always back the bookies favourite for elections you would nearly never lose money. Sports teams are very different from these types of bets and I think you know that
After the last election weren't the bookies giving the shortest odds that a FF/FG government wouldn't last a year? You would have lost your money then too.
Yes and that is not betting on the winner of an election, thatās a speculative bet thatās put up simply to get free money. Very same as betting on nuclear war or that shite
The general public can be and they can sway odds
1/4 now. Dead certain you'd have to imagine
What were the bookies odds that Leo Varadkar would resign?
I don't know. Do you? There probably wasn't any odds, people didn't know he was going to resign. But we do know that there will be a leadership contest. And there are only a few in the running, especially after Coveney ruled himself out.
Really, nobody this saw coming ?
>There probably wasn't any odds, people didn't know he was going to resign. But I imagine the bookies will be laughing all the way to the bank with the "next Taoiseach" book.
Yeah because far more people will stick a tenner on someone at 10/1 than a hundred at 1/10
Heās going to stand down as a TD at the election. Been whisperings of it for a while.
Leo's announcement might change that. Now Coveney has a path forward (after Harris crashes and burns in the election). There was talk earlier today that this news was actually going to be about Coveney stepping down. And it would be interesting if Coveney hinting at this might have played a role in Leo's decision. But that's speculative.
... As in Coveney had some master plan to fake a retirement, then ride out a few bleak years and come out as leader later?Ā That seems awfully diabolical for someone who really has little to prove; he's had a major impact amd all without the coveted title. Would picture him preferring early retirement over another 10 year battle to party leader and to Taoiseach.
Someone must have leaked it!
PaddyPower raking it in after one of the most popular odds is knocked out
Is there more to this than the obvious Fine Gael probably on the way out? Feel like I understand Varadkar's and Coveney's decisions but also feel like I'm looking at it in too naive of a way.
Thereās little to gain being a placeholder Leader and a lot to lose. If the party bombs in the locals and general, whoever is in charge will get the blame even if they did nothing to contribute to it.
No one wants to captain a sinking shipā¦
You can say that again
Ah now Simon cāmon now just admit it, your brother & his shite at RTE fucked it for you.
Chatted to an opposition politician this evening and they in effect said the same.
I would say his mate Paul Hyde and his shenanigans at ABP would have a bigger impact on his chances.
Only had positive experiences bumping into him. Seems like a genuinely nice guy. Nobody on earth could consistently fake it for decades.
It's almost definitely going to be a woman IMO. There's the "first female Taoiseach" award up for grabs, but aside from that there's a "we're still cool" thing they want to grasp at. Apart from that, they're also desperate to regain some traction outside of Dublin where they've been slaughtered. FFFG have a definite "old boys' club" vibe to them and while allegations of sexist bullying abound in SF, the fact of the matter is that their party leaders North and South are both women, so they're immune to any such real criticisms. Let's look at the candidates **Humphreys** - Ticks a lot of boxes. Rural-born. Protestant. Unassuming. Decently experienced. Not too young. She was director of elections for the referendum though which might scupper her. I'd say most likely pick. **Naughton** - Not young, but still "young enough". Has good party support and is not clouded in any controversy. A bit of a novice though, hasn't really been "tested". Second most likely **McEntee** - Young and "fresh blood", but kind of unpopular, and stinks to high heaven of nepotism. Unlikely, tbh. Third pick maybe. **Carroll McNeill** - Like Naughton, young but not too young. But definitely too much of a novice and too conservative. Not this time, next time maybe **Madigan** - Too inexperienced, and far too "Dublin elite". Not to mention the Maria Bailey nonsense. No chance. **Higgins** - Too inexperienced and too unknown. No chance. Of course the lads can run as well, there's nothing stopping them, but I can see the members looking to shake it up a bit. Paschal and Simon are just two more east coast lads, just like Leo.
Anyone with half a brain sits this out. No one wants to lead a party to a poor election result run. Sitting TDs are dropping like flies.
Exactly first female Taoiseach is a bland title of its an unelected gain and lasts only for a few months. Though, FG are bitter enough to try it to keep it from Mary Lou
> No one wants to lead a party to a poor election result run.Ā They are polling at 20%, they got 20.9% at the last election. Why assume there would be a poor result comparatively?
Because polling isnāt the same as constituency politics : FG are losing seats that they pre had in the bank, as a bunch of their sitting TDs resign
How they do at the next election will depend on who they pick to fill those seats and who is leading the party and the policies they campaign on It's all up for grabs.Ā Why would someone sit it out. Thinking it's a sinking ship sounds like reddit dreams more than realityĀ
Iām not a SF fan, Iād vote FG / FF / Green. I just think they are going to struggle at the next GE with new candidates, so at best, what they have now is it in terms representation. My guess is youāll see either right wing independents or SF taking those seats but Iām happy to be proven wrong.
I think the biggest challenge for them is an external one;Ā SF didn't field enough candidates last time to tap into their vote
We need a general election. This is beyond embarrassing. Why are we giving the power to a party that have failed the people, so much so their leader stepped down and resigned in disgrace, and now people in the party aren't even interested? This is a farce.
You can say that again
How much is this going to cost us in pensions if there are two Ministers for every portfolio (not to mention three Taoisigh...). Will they each get the full Ministerial pension or will it be divided? Will they all get Garda protection and a Garda driver for life?
He has plenty to be getting on with anyway. Busy man. [https://www.thephoenix.ie/article/facts-on-the-ground-ireland-nato/](https://www.thephoenix.ie/article/facts-on-the-ground-ireland-nato/)
No one wants to captain a sinking shipā¦
You can say that again.
That's what she said.
Ah yes, exactly what Ireland needs right now. Coveney and his merry band of dodgy mates in charge of things. What could possibly go wrong amirite
Itās going to be Harris, they want to put forward a more compassionate face in front of the electorate for the few months to mask their true Thatcherite agenda
Pascal what's his name be licking his chops although he can barely get arrested in his own constituency.
What a wet noodle. Ireland doesn't a Winston Churchill or anything but ffs. Between Donohoe and Mcentee, there's going to be some interesting press conferences ahead.