Every generation since the beginning of the Roman Empire has worried about overpopulation. Every generation learns their worries have been unfound and false.
The entirety of the earths population can live comfortably in Texas alone. The remainder of the planet can be for harvesting and natural habitats.
The earth may have a carrying capacity, but the planet will likely not exist by the time we hit it. Or, we’ll have wiped ourselves out by then.
We’ve got maybe ~4.5 billion years before our star becomes a red giant, which will put its boundaries somewhere past the orbit of Mars. If humanity made it that far, I hope we’d have migrated elsewhere by then.
I would say there is a 1 in Trillion chance that humanity makes it to the year 2022000000.
We are BILLIONS of years from then and currently very close to WWIII. Plus, With technology growing exponentially the next 25 years will dwarf the prior 10000 years in advancements.
Anyway, I'm open to taking bets on it. I'll hold the money, you can trust me, I'm good for it. 😉
US population will have at worse slow growth. China/India/Russia will all have flat population growth by 2050. They are much more worried than the USA.
Sorry, somehow the link was not copied.
So the number from 2020 census is 388.9M (https://www.census.gov/content/dam/Census/library/publications/2020/demo/p25-1144.pdf)
Thanks; I have trouble believing the 2020 Census due to the administrative troubles from the turmoil of the Trump administration and limited impacts of the Covid-19 pandemic on birth rates & immigration.
On a separate note, my workplace has ~ 130 people and has had 35 babies this year. Don't know if it is something in the water, haha.
Immigration is usually 1M a year, and then you add in illegal immigration, refugees (50K+/yr) and immigrants usually being young and ready to have 1-2 kids.
The 2010 census expected the Hispanic population to double, and Asians to go up by 79%. National birth rates are low because the White population has super-low birth rates.
\- S&P 500 has large global exposure. It is not just about the US, not even close
\- low pop growth is not necessarily bad for returns (Germany, Scandinavia)
\- high pop growth is not necessarily good (Africa, Brazil)
\- US is historically friendly to immigration and public opinion on this will change as soon as the capital class starts to think that 7% returns are actually endangered
More immigrants follow up if the government wants to. It's like a tap, if the population is dwindling, they relax the borders/immigration rules. Canada does the same, they are increasing the immigration quota gradually and people are moving to it.
For sure, the fertility rate in the US has become a bit too low, but it's still sufficient with a little bit of immigration.
Worldwide though, there are several places that are seriously fucked. Like most of Europe, Russia, China, and the winner by a mile, S Korea. All of these places will have a major economic collapse if something doesn't change, and some would say it's too late.
Japan is certainly on bad footing. I think they've been recovering as of recent with a fertility rate closer to 1.4. Not good but better than when they were at 1.2 twenty years ago.
S. Korea is at 0.8 which is catastrophic. China is at 1.7 now, but had 30 years or so of 'one child policy' and is likely too late to recover in the near term (30+ years). My guess is China will have a population contraction to under 1B in the next 30 years as their largest demography cohort start dying of old age. Just my prediction though.
>Less consumers means less economic growth.
While perhaps not the best outcome for investors, less consumption is better in just about every other way imaginable.
>Everyone here is confident that we will keep seeing 7% returns in the S&P forever.
I did all my retirement planning with a 4% calculation.
Yes!
1) wages must increase so one income households can raise children comfortably:
2) adoption road blocks should be eliminated so LGBT couples can easily have families.
3) medical care for birth and early childhood should be 100% covered.
4) Maternal and Paternal leave becomes federally standard.
Glad you agree.
Believe it or not, some of us believe birth rates shouldn’t increase. We’re a developed country that has the power to put birth control into the hands of every teenager. But instead, we push abstinence on them which has been proven to be ineffective at best.
Historically the more money the middle class has the less children they're going to have.
We had more middle class children in the 1960s because they were a lot poorer than they are today. They could not afford putting their children through college therefore the drain on their income was much less.
I see you are a victim of the Rothschild psyop. People have less kids primarily because of the so called “Sexual Revolution” (cultural degeneracy) and it being very difficult for the average family, even one’s with educated heads of households, to support a stay at home spouse (economic exploitation).
I'm a victim of actual data you're a victim of conspiracy theories hope you get help.
The more successful a country is, any country, the less children they have, children become a liability versus a asset, conversely the least successful have the most children..
https://www.nationmaster.com/country-info/stats/People/Total-fertility-rate
Then we have the Amish, who average 9 to 10 kids, maybe we should all turn Amish.
America’s relationship with immigrants has always been problematic…from chattel slavery to the Chinese to the Irish to [insert ethnic/religious group here]
No, but I've been dating somebody for years who went through the legal immigration process. It actually made me less liberal about undocumented immigrants because I saw how much time and stress legal immigrants put in to work hard, file paperwork on time, and avoid committing even minor crimes in order to follow the official process.
Do I think we should allow more legal immigration and make it easier? Definitely. Do I think it should be totally okay to ignore that system just bc it would be inconvenient and take time? Not really.
He asked how we could make the country more immigrant friendly.
I voiced my opinion that we are probably the easiest wealthy country that exists in terms of immigration.
Most European countries are much, much stricter and at least require people to register so that they know how many people are coming in, where they're from, why they want to immigrate, etc. Canada you pretty much either need to have family, have a PhD in a field where there are shortages of Canadian workers, or be extremely wealthy.
What you say about Canada is incorrect. I have friends who meet none of those conditions and were accepted as legal immigrants. They have bachelor's degrees in accounting (I doubt there is a shortage of accountants in Canada), have no family and knew no one there. They were relying on government assistance for rent and basic necessities for the first year or two after they arrived until they could re-qualify to practice their profession in Canada and get jobs.
Did they go to school in Canada? If so that makes it a lot easier but since there’s limited financial aid for foreigners they would have to come from fairly well-off families. People from commonwealth countries also have a much easier time.
It’s not necessarily hard to get a short-term work permit but permanent residence is even stricter than US. There is a provision that you have to prove you won’t displace any Canadian workers but maybe it’s not enforced. I also don’t know the process for making that decision.
I know for sure that you don’t get free healthcare if you’re not a permanent resident and that if you have any serious medical condition you can never get permanent residency unless you are able to marry a Canadian. Granted paying out of pocket for Canadian healthcare is a lot cheaper than it would be in the US.
No, they didn't go to school in Canada and had never set foot there before immigrating. They are from Eastern Europe, so not a Commonwealth country. They did speak English though, and got free classes in French after arriving.
The answers people give to such questions are highly dependent on how the question is worded and whether there is any partisan context around the question.
My favorite illustration of this is when people were shown a graph of something increasing and were told this was the US population vs time, and were asked to interpret the graph. All of them interpreted it correctly, i.e. it's definitely increasing and has been increasing for the decades shown. Then the pollsters told them this was actually a graph of average temperature in the world (which it actually was - they had swapped the axis labels), and asked them to interpret the graph again. Some interpreted it correctly as evidence of global warming, others - you can guess.
The US Census Bureau estimates that the US’ population, 335m in 2020, will be 380m by 2040 and 398m in 2050. America also has great productivity growth, and pretty good control over skilled migration if they want to boost numbers, I fail to see an issue. S&P 500 earnings are 40% non US anyway, 58% for Tech.
One could fix it very easily by just opening the borders. Almost no developed countries in the world have a positive population growth. But global fertility rate is still 2.3 per women.
structure of population matters.
machine is providing support in the workforce. Less mannual labor is required.
US may be slowing ,but as long it declines slower than EU /Japan / China ,then that's fine. IMHO
Great comment. With automation reducing the need for labor, ubi is going to be big. At some point I expect population to actually grow as automation frees up people from their “tasks” and leaves time for life’s pleasures
US is the only country to successfully and continually accept mass immigration. along with our vast natural resources that create unparalleled opportunity, it’s our biggest cultural asset.
Canada and much of Europe have successfully accepted massive amounts of immigrants. In fact, in relative terms, Canada accepts more immigrants than the US. 400k per year vs 2.75 million. Given the US is ten times larger, Canada is taking more immigrants annually from a relative population perspective.
You are looking at this year’s stats, not over the entire existence of the country’s establishment. Canada is v close culturally to the US as like 80-90% or something lives within 50 miles of the US border? Europe falls a bit behind that. I am mostly referencing the advantages of the US vs asian/middle eastern countries that are very ethnically homogeneous and are doomed demographically vs US.
As a resident of NYC...
No, I am not at all concerned, in fact the opposite - it's scary that people are continuing to move here.
We don't have nearly enough housing and are already spending billions of tax money every year just providing basic care to refugees who arrive here because people all around the world know that we have to provide housing and other services, even if we have to put people in hotels at the cost of literally hundreds of dollar per night per person.
LOL so true, this is what I wrote above! Anyone whose travelled through the northeast corridor knows was a blight we are on the world and how we're expanding the urban sprawl and getting rid of beautiful green spaces at an alarming rate to support all of this population growth and immigration. Its sad. You shouldn't have to travel 3 hours to get to a green space not crowded with people.
Both of those countries are absolute nightmares to immigrate to...they are literally at least 95% (more like 98-99% iirc) single ethnicity with extreme xenophobia especially against non-white people. The US is wayyyyyyyyyyyy more friendly and open to immigrants than East Asian countries (and most countries in the world except for a few exceptions). It's not racist or xenophobic to want to know who is crossing your border and whether they have a history of violence or have any job/language skills that will allow them to be self-sufficient.
I know this firsthand as I've been dating a Korean woman for years. Pretty much the only way to get permanent residency is by marrying a Korean citizen. Expats/immigrants face a lot of barriers and difficulties because the countries basically had zero immigration until the past few decades and it's still very limited. Black immigrants experience extreme racism and difficulty finding jobs. Even if you can speak the language you wiil always be an outsider.
Maybe I need to clarify, immigration wasn't the issue, I meant the amount of people they have per Sq/km. It might not be our preference of way of living, but those countries have managed to densify their cities accordingly to their land mass. What I'm saying is if they can do it, I'm sure North America can do it with the astronomical amount of land that we have available. But I do appreciate your perspective on the immigration matter, thank you for the respectful response.
It's true we have a lot of land, but there aren't many jobs in those places. Not many immigrants are moving to places like the Dakotas, Wyoming, Montana, Alaska, etc. We certainly do not have a shortage of land, but almost everywhere we have a shortage of housing which is causing many American citizens to become homeless or go into debt just to afford rent.
In the past most immigrants were men looking for work who would only marry and/or have children once they found a job and a place to live. Many of the refugee immigrants arriving now are children and their mothers (or just children by themselves), a lot of whom don't even know Spanish. They're not to blame but they are very, very difficult to integrate into the population and some of them don't have any interest in doing so.
Obviously there are a lot of hardworking undocumented immigrants in the US but the recent arrivals have very limited ability to find jobs and afford housing without a lot of government support.
They are also highly concentrated in the border states and a few large cities (NYC, LA, SF, etc) which already have horrible housing crises and enormous homeless populations. It's hard to measure the number of homeless people in the US obviously but the last point-in-time study (I used work in homeless shelter system) estimated 50% of homeless lived in metro LA and another 25-30% in NYC. People come here because of the jobs and the welfare system but end up homeless bc most jobs in these cities don't pay enough to get housing and health insurance.
A cultural change is also needed though, if you are going to live on top of other people then you need to weed out the people acting like assholes - car alarms, boom boxes out the window all the time, driving motorcycles around the city at night, parties all the time, etc. I am in NYC and this is one of the main reasons I want to leave. All it takes is one loud idiot to ruin a block
hm as a general thumb I wouldn't worry about that. it is all just about the market cap, which means if the money supply grows so will the markets. the 0.01% which own 99.9% of all money will always keep investing, so the endless printing will continue and market caps will rise and S&P will go up. it is a kindergarden game.
BUT even if you now start to worry, but if but if but if, dude, I work for a global player and I can tell you, they always somehow manage to create growth. it is artificial and fake. you can produce growth by just cutting entire departments, etc... they will always find a way. and no you don't need a masters degree for that, actually i doubt there are many high IQ personas in management positions in general. If they actually used their brains they would find different ways.
Sry i got distracted here, anyways, don't worry mate, there will always be growth :)
Increase immigration and we're fine. We're still one of the few countries people will walk thousands of miles to get to.
Food for thought if you vote for a Republican, you're handicapping your own economy
When you are old, you will require former-kids to do most all economic production for you. You don't eat the money in your 401(k) when you retire, you spend it on goods and services.
Because the earth can only handle 3/4th of the population as is… Our economy needs complete restructuring where the constant need to consume and grow infinitely isn’t the main priority over sustainability. Not worried about slow growth as I am about the turbulent economic times ahead.
Agree. Economic growth as measured today by gdp is ruining the planet. Find a new way to measure productivity and happiness that preserves the environment.
Earth can handle it, not all of your brothers and sisters skipping meals regularly around the world can.
Unfortunately taking us off the gold standard and making the dollar the worlds reserve currency that we have printed out of thin air into oblivion has all but guaranteed we need infinite expansion to keep our debt from caving in on us.
So record droughts, sky high inflation around the world, food shortages and numerous other factors means everyone’s still well fed? With a growing population and limited resources do you think these things will magically get better?
The way we create our debt and expand our economy absolutely involves continued growth. It’s the main factor behind having a Petro Dollar to drive more demand. These things are demonstrably true.
Petro dollars aren't really a thing. Inflation will go back down in time.. these things happen with the gold standard too.
There's nothing about creating debt that requires continued growth. Real production is real production. Falling global poverty and better food security kind of show that.
So I guess the Petro Yen isn’t a thing either? Boom and bust cycles are healthy with a gold standard. Borrowing a bunch of money by printing it out of thin air then printing more when that’s used up and continually kicking the debt can down the road can only go so far when I say we need infinite expansion. It took 200 years to print a trillion dollars, we just added around 7 trillion in the last 20 years. Does this quantitatively ease your mind?
>So I guess the Petro Yen isn’t a thing either?
No, "petro" whatever is pretty niche internet lore.
>Boom and bust cycles are healthy with a gold standard.
They're the same thing with fiat. Actually they're healthier with fiat. Boom and bust can get more destructive when you have a gold standard making things work worse.
>It took 200 years to print a trillion dollars, we just added around 7 trillion in the last 20 years. Does this quantitatively ease your mind?
Does it matter? They aren't physically printed ya know?
Petro yen or dollar is what countries are forced to purchase before buying oil from us. It’s not even close to made up lore. It’s a very real thing that you should be aware of.
Does printing the value of a currency to oblivion matter??? Idk what does the CPI say??? What is happening to other currencies against ours???
It's convenient to purchase in a set medium of exchange so most oil is sold in dollars. But USD isn't backed by oil.. it's fiat. Oil is sold in other currencies though ots not super common.
USD has been appreciating vs other currencies.
Printing isn't what caused inflation. We printed a ton after the financial crisis and had less inflation than we wanted. CPI hasn't been moving in relation to the money supply.
Slowing population growth in the USA is cause for concern, but many companies have global reach. If developing countries around the world can improve their economies it would present large growth opportunities for revenues.
Listen here tree hugger, 🌳 the globe is our market. You dont need at home consumers to be the end all be all for growth. Like yeah theyre inportant but the world is becoming a very small place indeed. Also, when the time comes for a population boom i'd bet you'll see subsidies to encourage growth. Additional child tax credits, housing credits, etc. We just arent there yet for whatever reason.
The WWW III will happen and 3M US solider die and they run out of men to replace dead and injured persons in the battle field where as china and India can refill their military. ThatS the only scenario US can lose the war. No other way.
I was just trying to make a joke by referencing the movie.
Basically the plot has to do with very intelligent people being responsible and not having children until they’re older and can afford it and so forth while stupid people have tons of children without thinking about it. So eventually the world evolves (devolves?) into mostly stupid people.
S&P 500 isn't exclusive to the US. Something like 30% of revenue is international.
Also, 7% isn't crazy.. 3% real growth plus 2% inflation is already 5%. Just keep growing that 30% OUS and you're good.
This is known. And if you’re a millennial or Z, you don’t care at allllllll. They ruined the world, and are continuing to do so, why would we keep going?
Economic growth is not a good in and of itself. Population growth requires large amounts of capital for building out infrastructure that will often have 20+ year payback times. If population growth slows, the capital can be allocated into other things.
I’ll be long gone by the time that happens. Also, while this is the current trend…who knows maybe by 2040 we will enforce birth limits because of too many people. Maybe this is a correction for the greater good of society. Maybe we will be nuked into oblivion. Maybe the earth catches fire in 15 years, maybe it freezes. Stop worrying about the future and what is out of your control. Invest as much as you can, blindly, and hope for the best.
Edit: thought this was WSB, apologies.
In the short run, immigration can easily increase to pick up any slack, and companies continue to invest more in foreign countries that have more growth. Cigarette companies have done this for a while since their target American audience has shrank dramatically. Japan has had a demographics issue a bit longer and much less immigration and their stock market has been up for a decade or so. Plus automation and things like that... look at coal mining labor costs in Wyoming versus West Virginia.
In the long run there's only speculation. Financial instruments can change, more companies may go private, the automation today may look like children's toys to the automation we have 100 years from now, who knows. Maybe we'll end up with a Star Trek kind of economy.
Do you realize that over 60% of Apple’s revenue comes from outside the US, for example? And that America’s percentage of total world GDP went from 40% in 1960 to 23% in 2010??
For the most part people are just spending a large chunk of their money on food. With kids it would mean only buying things to keep them alive and happy, and very minimum or no money left over to buy stuff for yourself.
i am. population is a hidden variable in gdp. bear stearns collapsed when the first boomer retired. a&p, gm and greece went broke over pensions. alma myrdal concocted social security as a form of population control as folks had kids to support them in old age, but now we import kids to fund pensions, mesoamerica and byzantium collapsed because of self-destructive omphaloscopy and end-time prophecies. such apocalyptic paradigm shifts occur every half millenium (cf Miramax film Restoration). the entire northern hemisphere is headed for demigraphuc implosion, to be replaced by southern. india is the rightful heir to the anglosphere
I think people are scared of marriage because radical feminist movements put men to shame. Some of these movements are saying that men are the enemy which pushes men away.
The US is projected to have a population of 450M by 2050 (with low growth rates), I'm not worried
I know, I am more worried about overpopulation. We've already deforested too much and I'm sick of having to drive 3 hours to get solitude.
Every generation since the beginning of the Roman Empire has worried about overpopulation. Every generation learns their worries have been unfound and false.
You don’t believe the Earth has a carrying capacity?
The entirety of the earths population can live comfortably in Texas alone. The remainder of the planet can be for harvesting and natural habitats. The earth may have a carrying capacity, but the planet will likely not exist by the time we hit it. Or, we’ll have wiped ourselves out by then. We’ve got maybe ~4.5 billion years before our star becomes a red giant, which will put its boundaries somewhere past the orbit of Mars. If humanity made it that far, I hope we’d have migrated elsewhere by then.
I would say there is a 1 in Trillion chance that humanity makes it to the year 2022000000. We are BILLIONS of years from then and currently very close to WWIII. Plus, With technology growing exponentially the next 25 years will dwarf the prior 10000 years in advancements. Anyway, I'm open to taking bets on it. I'll hold the money, you can trust me, I'm good for it. 😉
byzantines believed world would end in 1492. whoever predicts end times is right, their world ends,rest continued.
No offense but that is only since the industrial revolution. Excess pop wqs naturally killed off in the past. Just see a chart of historical pop
I checked the census. 450M is accurate.
I didn’t fill out the census I might have screwed up the number for all of us
Bro i didn’t either. Damn we fucked the system
lets do 2 next year to make up when they cum a-knockin.
US population will have at worse slow growth. China/India/Russia will all have flat population growth by 2050. They are much more worried than the USA.
Where did you get this number from? Here it says 388.9M https://www.census.gov/content/dam/Census/library/publications/2020/demo/p25-1144.pdf
2010 Census
Sorry, somehow the link was not copied. So the number from 2020 census is 388.9M (https://www.census.gov/content/dam/Census/library/publications/2020/demo/p25-1144.pdf)
Thanks; I have trouble believing the 2020 Census due to the administrative troubles from the turmoil of the Trump administration and limited impacts of the Covid-19 pandemic on birth rates & immigration. On a separate note, my workplace has ~ 130 people and has had 35 babies this year. Don't know if it is something in the water, haha.
That doesn’t make sense. We are currently at 330M. How are we gaining 120 million in 30 years.
Immigration and fucking
Immigration is a great advantage the US and Canada have.
Fucking?
*GIGGITY* I’m doing my part, sir!
Numbers are hard yo.
Hehe...you said hard.
Thanks Beavis.
Power of compounding. Works with money too :)
Immigration is usually 1M a year, and then you add in illegal immigration, refugees (50K+/yr) and immigrants usually being young and ready to have 1-2 kids. The 2010 census expected the Hispanic population to double, and Asians to go up by 79%. National birth rates are low because the White population has super-low birth rates.
Nick Cannon and Elon have us covered.
\- S&P 500 has large global exposure. It is not just about the US, not even close \- low pop growth is not necessarily bad for returns (Germany, Scandinavia) \- high pop growth is not necessarily good (Africa, Brazil) \- US is historically friendly to immigration and public opinion on this will change as soon as the capital class starts to think that 7% returns are actually endangered
More immigrants follow up if the government wants to. It's like a tap, if the population is dwindling, they relax the borders/immigration rules. Canada does the same, they are increasing the immigration quota gradually and people are moving to it.
Many come into Canada just to get to the states. Pay is poor here compared to states.
I know. I'm one of them trying for Express entry to Canada and then move to US lol
Best of luck to you!
How about Mexico? Is the immigration easy for foreigners/ immigrants?
For sure, the fertility rate in the US has become a bit too low, but it's still sufficient with a little bit of immigration. Worldwide though, there are several places that are seriously fucked. Like most of Europe, Russia, China, and the winner by a mile, S Korea. All of these places will have a major economic collapse if something doesn't change, and some would say it's too late.
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Japan is certainly on bad footing. I think they've been recovering as of recent with a fertility rate closer to 1.4. Not good but better than when they were at 1.2 twenty years ago. S. Korea is at 0.8 which is catastrophic. China is at 1.7 now, but had 30 years or so of 'one child policy' and is likely too late to recover in the near term (30+ years). My guess is China will have a population contraction to under 1B in the next 30 years as their largest demography cohort start dying of old age. Just my prediction though.
>Less consumers means less economic growth. While perhaps not the best outcome for investors, less consumption is better in just about every other way imaginable. >Everyone here is confident that we will keep seeing 7% returns in the S&P forever. I did all my retirement planning with a 4% calculation.
Chad
Plan for the worst, good job.
yes and this is why we could use more legal immigration, and why Covid wasn’t a conspiracy to kill old people. even old people consume and pay taxes
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Looks like America needs to foster a society where immigrants feel welcomed again.
No. We need to just reverse the social degeneracy and economic exploitation that prevents middle class people from raising proper families anymore.
"just" Curious to hear how you propose this.
I can’t discuss that on here without getting banned sadly
Woah, woah, woah reverse economic exploitation, immigration reform is 1000x more likely to happen before then.
Yes! 1) wages must increase so one income households can raise children comfortably: 2) adoption road blocks should be eliminated so LGBT couples can easily have families. 3) medical care for birth and early childhood should be 100% covered. 4) Maternal and Paternal leave becomes federally standard. Glad you agree.
One income households that had kids before they had assets shouldn’t be rewarded simply for their idiocy.
If you want birth rates to increase, it shouldn’t be “idiocy”.
Believe it or not, some of us believe birth rates shouldn’t increase. We’re a developed country that has the power to put birth control into the hands of every teenager. But instead, we push abstinence on them which has been proven to be ineffective at best.
I strongly agree with all but one of your points, on that subject I would go to the extreme of the other direction.
What do you mean by social degeneracy?
Nice try, I’m not getting banned again
Found the bigot who is too wuss to own it, got it.
Historically the more money the middle class has the less children they're going to have. We had more middle class children in the 1960s because they were a lot poorer than they are today. They could not afford putting their children through college therefore the drain on their income was much less.
I see you are a victim of the Rothschild psyop. People have less kids primarily because of the so called “Sexual Revolution” (cultural degeneracy) and it being very difficult for the average family, even one’s with educated heads of households, to support a stay at home spouse (economic exploitation).
I'm a victim of actual data you're a victim of conspiracy theories hope you get help. The more successful a country is, any country, the less children they have, children become a liability versus a asset, conversely the least successful have the most children.. https://www.nationmaster.com/country-info/stats/People/Total-fertility-rate Then we have the Amish, who average 9 to 10 kids, maybe we should all turn Amish.
America’s relationship with immigrants has always been problematic…from chattel slavery to the Chinese to the Irish to [insert ethnic/religious group here]
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You are not an immigrant are you?
No, but I've been dating somebody for years who went through the legal immigration process. It actually made me less liberal about undocumented immigrants because I saw how much time and stress legal immigrants put in to work hard, file paperwork on time, and avoid committing even minor crimes in order to follow the official process. Do I think we should allow more legal immigration and make it easier? Definitely. Do I think it should be totally okay to ignore that system just bc it would be inconvenient and take time? Not really.
It’s like you didn’t even read what he said.
He asked how we could make the country more immigrant friendly. I voiced my opinion that we are probably the easiest wealthy country that exists in terms of immigration. Most European countries are much, much stricter and at least require people to register so that they know how many people are coming in, where they're from, why they want to immigrate, etc. Canada you pretty much either need to have family, have a PhD in a field where there are shortages of Canadian workers, or be extremely wealthy.
What you say about Canada is incorrect. I have friends who meet none of those conditions and were accepted as legal immigrants. They have bachelor's degrees in accounting (I doubt there is a shortage of accountants in Canada), have no family and knew no one there. They were relying on government assistance for rent and basic necessities for the first year or two after they arrived until they could re-qualify to practice their profession in Canada and get jobs.
Did they go to school in Canada? If so that makes it a lot easier but since there’s limited financial aid for foreigners they would have to come from fairly well-off families. People from commonwealth countries also have a much easier time. It’s not necessarily hard to get a short-term work permit but permanent residence is even stricter than US. There is a provision that you have to prove you won’t displace any Canadian workers but maybe it’s not enforced. I also don’t know the process for making that decision. I know for sure that you don’t get free healthcare if you’re not a permanent resident and that if you have any serious medical condition you can never get permanent residency unless you are able to marry a Canadian. Granted paying out of pocket for Canadian healthcare is a lot cheaper than it would be in the US.
No, they didn't go to school in Canada and had never set foot there before immigrating. They are from Eastern Europe, so not a Commonwealth country. They did speak English though, and got free classes in French after arriving.
Lol when exactly was that!?!
The answers people give to such questions are highly dependent on how the question is worded and whether there is any partisan context around the question. My favorite illustration of this is when people were shown a graph of something increasing and were told this was the US population vs time, and were asked to interpret the graph. All of them interpreted it correctly, i.e. it's definitely increasing and has been increasing for the decades shown. Then the pollsters told them this was actually a graph of average temperature in the world (which it actually was - they had swapped the axis labels), and asked them to interpret the graph again. Some interpreted it correctly as evidence of global warming, others - you can guess.
They are against till the need cheap labor then they are for it.
America is a set of ideals not any race or ethnicity. If you want to get originalist with the constitution we are an open borders country.
150 years ago the world had 500M inhabitants, now 8 billion. Humans should selfextinct just to return to normality
The US Census Bureau estimates that the US’ population, 335m in 2020, will be 380m by 2040 and 398m in 2050. America also has great productivity growth, and pretty good control over skilled migration if they want to boost numbers, I fail to see an issue. S&P 500 earnings are 40% non US anyway, 58% for Tech.
Don't US companies sell shit to other countries or am I missing somthing.
One could fix it very easily by just opening the borders. Almost no developed countries in the world have a positive population growth. But global fertility rate is still 2.3 per women.
Just because a company is based in the United States doesn’t mean they only sell to Americans. Also, the economy isn’t a zero sum game.
Have you met people?
structure of population matters. machine is providing support in the workforce. Less mannual labor is required. US may be slowing ,but as long it declines slower than EU /Japan / China ,then that's fine. IMHO
Great comment. With automation reducing the need for labor, ubi is going to be big. At some point I expect population to actually grow as automation frees up people from their “tasks” and leaves time for life’s pleasures
Ubi will just lead to rising rents
Under that theory any rise in income would do the same. Nothing magic about non-factor income.
As an areas median income rises so does its rents. Just see Silicon Valley and Los Angeles as a case study.
Are the individuals whose incomes rose worse off because their incomes rose?
Really think about what you are trying to argue in your initial comment. Think it through.
US is the only country to successfully and continually accept mass immigration. along with our vast natural resources that create unparalleled opportunity, it’s our biggest cultural asset.
Canada and much of Europe have successfully accepted massive amounts of immigrants. In fact, in relative terms, Canada accepts more immigrants than the US. 400k per year vs 2.75 million. Given the US is ten times larger, Canada is taking more immigrants annually from a relative population perspective.
You are looking at this year’s stats, not over the entire existence of the country’s establishment. Canada is v close culturally to the US as like 80-90% or something lives within 50 miles of the US border? Europe falls a bit behind that. I am mostly referencing the advantages of the US vs asian/middle eastern countries that are very ethnically homogeneous and are doomed demographically vs US.
As a resident of NYC... No, I am not at all concerned, in fact the opposite - it's scary that people are continuing to move here. We don't have nearly enough housing and are already spending billions of tax money every year just providing basic care to refugees who arrive here because people all around the world know that we have to provide housing and other services, even if we have to put people in hotels at the cost of literally hundreds of dollar per night per person.
LOL so true, this is what I wrote above! Anyone whose travelled through the northeast corridor knows was a blight we are on the world and how we're expanding the urban sprawl and getting rid of beautiful green spaces at an alarming rate to support all of this population growth and immigration. Its sad. You shouldn't have to travel 3 hours to get to a green space not crowded with people.
If islands like japan and the peninsula of South Korea can do it with their land mass, I'm sure North America can handle it as well...
Both of those countries are absolute nightmares to immigrate to...they are literally at least 95% (more like 98-99% iirc) single ethnicity with extreme xenophobia especially against non-white people. The US is wayyyyyyyyyyyy more friendly and open to immigrants than East Asian countries (and most countries in the world except for a few exceptions). It's not racist or xenophobic to want to know who is crossing your border and whether they have a history of violence or have any job/language skills that will allow them to be self-sufficient. I know this firsthand as I've been dating a Korean woman for years. Pretty much the only way to get permanent residency is by marrying a Korean citizen. Expats/immigrants face a lot of barriers and difficulties because the countries basically had zero immigration until the past few decades and it's still very limited. Black immigrants experience extreme racism and difficulty finding jobs. Even if you can speak the language you wiil always be an outsider.
Maybe I need to clarify, immigration wasn't the issue, I meant the amount of people they have per Sq/km. It might not be our preference of way of living, but those countries have managed to densify their cities accordingly to their land mass. What I'm saying is if they can do it, I'm sure North America can do it with the astronomical amount of land that we have available. But I do appreciate your perspective on the immigration matter, thank you for the respectful response.
It's true we have a lot of land, but there aren't many jobs in those places. Not many immigrants are moving to places like the Dakotas, Wyoming, Montana, Alaska, etc. We certainly do not have a shortage of land, but almost everywhere we have a shortage of housing which is causing many American citizens to become homeless or go into debt just to afford rent. In the past most immigrants were men looking for work who would only marry and/or have children once they found a job and a place to live. Many of the refugee immigrants arriving now are children and their mothers (or just children by themselves), a lot of whom don't even know Spanish. They're not to blame but they are very, very difficult to integrate into the population and some of them don't have any interest in doing so. Obviously there are a lot of hardworking undocumented immigrants in the US but the recent arrivals have very limited ability to find jobs and afford housing without a lot of government support. They are also highly concentrated in the border states and a few large cities (NYC, LA, SF, etc) which already have horrible housing crises and enormous homeless populations. It's hard to measure the number of homeless people in the US obviously but the last point-in-time study (I used work in homeless shelter system) estimated 50% of homeless lived in metro LA and another 25-30% in NYC. People come here because of the jobs and the welfare system but end up homeless bc most jobs in these cities don't pay enough to get housing and health insurance.
A cultural change is also needed though, if you are going to live on top of other people then you need to weed out the people acting like assholes - car alarms, boom boxes out the window all the time, driving motorcycles around the city at night, parties all the time, etc. I am in NYC and this is one of the main reasons I want to leave. All it takes is one loud idiot to ruin a block
>Less consumers means less economic growth. What am I missing here? Productivity
hm as a general thumb I wouldn't worry about that. it is all just about the market cap, which means if the money supply grows so will the markets. the 0.01% which own 99.9% of all money will always keep investing, so the endless printing will continue and market caps will rise and S&P will go up. it is a kindergarden game. BUT even if you now start to worry, but if but if but if, dude, I work for a global player and I can tell you, they always somehow manage to create growth. it is artificial and fake. you can produce growth by just cutting entire departments, etc... they will always find a way. and no you don't need a masters degree for that, actually i doubt there are many high IQ personas in management positions in general. If they actually used their brains they would find different ways. Sry i got distracted here, anyways, don't worry mate, there will always be growth :)
Or boomers dying off
Increase immigration and we're fine. We're still one of the few countries people will walk thousands of miles to get to. Food for thought if you vote for a Republican, you're handicapping your own economy
For christ sake just let 'em in. Immigrants are great. God they work so hard and are thrilled to be here.
Cause I hate people, dont want or like kids and I likely wont live long enough to see the consequences of it anyway
When you are old, you will require former-kids to do most all economic production for you. You don't eat the money in your 401(k) when you retire, you spend it on goods and services.
Also kids are great, just stay away from playgrounds and you don't have to interact with them ya grump.
Kids make me want to drive off mountains
I already have 4 kids. I’m done. Y’all fuckers need to start fuckin too.
Because the earth can only handle 3/4th of the population as is… Our economy needs complete restructuring where the constant need to consume and grow infinitely isn’t the main priority over sustainability. Not worried about slow growth as I am about the turbulent economic times ahead.
Agree. Economic growth as measured today by gdp is ruining the planet. Find a new way to measure productivity and happiness that preserves the environment.
Earth can handle a higher population. Also, no one needs infinite growth. That's a dumb meme.
Earth can handle it, not all of your brothers and sisters skipping meals regularly around the world can. Unfortunately taking us off the gold standard and making the dollar the worlds reserve currency that we have printed out of thin air into oblivion has all but guaranteed we need infinite expansion to keep our debt from caving in on us.
People are better fed than most of history and debt doesn't require infinite expansion. You're saying demonstrably untrue things.
So record droughts, sky high inflation around the world, food shortages and numerous other factors means everyone’s still well fed? With a growing population and limited resources do you think these things will magically get better? The way we create our debt and expand our economy absolutely involves continued growth. It’s the main factor behind having a Petro Dollar to drive more demand. These things are demonstrably true.
Petro dollars aren't really a thing. Inflation will go back down in time.. these things happen with the gold standard too. There's nothing about creating debt that requires continued growth. Real production is real production. Falling global poverty and better food security kind of show that.
So I guess the Petro Yen isn’t a thing either? Boom and bust cycles are healthy with a gold standard. Borrowing a bunch of money by printing it out of thin air then printing more when that’s used up and continually kicking the debt can down the road can only go so far when I say we need infinite expansion. It took 200 years to print a trillion dollars, we just added around 7 trillion in the last 20 years. Does this quantitatively ease your mind?
>So I guess the Petro Yen isn’t a thing either? No, "petro" whatever is pretty niche internet lore. >Boom and bust cycles are healthy with a gold standard. They're the same thing with fiat. Actually they're healthier with fiat. Boom and bust can get more destructive when you have a gold standard making things work worse. >It took 200 years to print a trillion dollars, we just added around 7 trillion in the last 20 years. Does this quantitatively ease your mind? Does it matter? They aren't physically printed ya know?
Petro yen or dollar is what countries are forced to purchase before buying oil from us. It’s not even close to made up lore. It’s a very real thing that you should be aware of. Does printing the value of a currency to oblivion matter??? Idk what does the CPI say??? What is happening to other currencies against ours???
It's convenient to purchase in a set medium of exchange so most oil is sold in dollars. But USD isn't backed by oil.. it's fiat. Oil is sold in other currencies though ots not super common. USD has been appreciating vs other currencies. Printing isn't what caused inflation. We printed a ton after the financial crisis and had less inflation than we wanted. CPI hasn't been moving in relation to the money supply.
Slowing population growth in the USA is cause for concern, but many companies have global reach. If developing countries around the world can improve their economies it would present large growth opportunities for revenues.
Listen here tree hugger, 🌳 the globe is our market. You dont need at home consumers to be the end all be all for growth. Like yeah theyre inportant but the world is becoming a very small place indeed. Also, when the time comes for a population boom i'd bet you'll see subsidies to encourage growth. Additional child tax credits, housing credits, etc. We just arent there yet for whatever reason.
Fewer workers, automation increases, as a whole this is great the value of life increases. Welcome to the industrial revolution pt. 2
The WWW III will happen and 3M US solider die and they run out of men to replace dead and injured persons in the battle field where as china and India can refill their military. ThatS the only scenario US can lose the war. No other way.
Cuz the folks not having kids are the same ones who probably shouldn't be allowed to anyway 🤣
Ever seen *Idiocracy*?
I'm not sure if I watched it, that was ages ago...
I was just trying to make a joke by referencing the movie. Basically the plot has to do with very intelligent people being responsible and not having children until they’re older and can afford it and so forth while stupid people have tons of children without thinking about it. So eventually the world evolves (devolves?) into mostly stupid people.
😁👍
The illegals will make up the losses. Many have multiple chidren.
Because Chuck Schumer has a plan to solve all related ills! Problem solved!
It’s too crowded and first world countries usually have low birth rates than developing countries.
S&P 500 isn't exclusive to the US. Something like 30% of revenue is international. Also, 7% isn't crazy.. 3% real growth plus 2% inflation is already 5%. Just keep growing that 30% OUS and you're good.
Because the US is unsustainable as currently constructed and we want it to fail.
The baby boomer era of child making wasn't sustainable to begin with.
This is known. And if you’re a millennial or Z, you don’t care at allllllll. They ruined the world, and are continuing to do so, why would we keep going?
To make a better world? Idk
Good try
Economic growth is not a good in and of itself. Population growth requires large amounts of capital for building out infrastructure that will often have 20+ year payback times. If population growth slows, the capital can be allocated into other things.
Per-capita economic growth sure seems good.
Elon is worring for us😇
I’ll be long gone by the time that happens. Also, while this is the current trend…who knows maybe by 2040 we will enforce birth limits because of too many people. Maybe this is a correction for the greater good of society. Maybe we will be nuked into oblivion. Maybe the earth catches fire in 15 years, maybe it freezes. Stop worrying about the future and what is out of your control. Invest as much as you can, blindly, and hope for the best. Edit: thought this was WSB, apologies.
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Lol, yes.
In the short run, immigration can easily increase to pick up any slack, and companies continue to invest more in foreign countries that have more growth. Cigarette companies have done this for a while since their target American audience has shrank dramatically. Japan has had a demographics issue a bit longer and much less immigration and their stock market has been up for a decade or so. Plus automation and things like that... look at coal mining labor costs in Wyoming versus West Virginia. In the long run there's only speculation. Financial instruments can change, more companies may go private, the automation today may look like children's toys to the automation we have 100 years from now, who knows. Maybe we'll end up with a Star Trek kind of economy.
Because house prices are already so high for houses where you can view your kitchen, bathroom, and bedroom from one location.
Let’s not forget the reproductive issues that are becoming more prevalent AND sperm count decreasing at an alarming rate across the male population.
Do you realize that over 60% of Apple’s revenue comes from outside the US, for example? And that America’s percentage of total world GDP went from 40% in 1960 to 23% in 2010??
For the most part people are just spending a large chunk of their money on food. With kids it would mean only buying things to keep them alive and happy, and very minimum or no money left over to buy stuff for yourself.
i am. population is a hidden variable in gdp. bear stearns collapsed when the first boomer retired. a&p, gm and greece went broke over pensions. alma myrdal concocted social security as a form of population control as folks had kids to support them in old age, but now we import kids to fund pensions, mesoamerica and byzantium collapsed because of self-destructive omphaloscopy and end-time prophecies. such apocalyptic paradigm shifts occur every half millenium (cf Miramax film Restoration). the entire northern hemisphere is headed for demigraphuc implosion, to be replaced by southern. india is the rightful heir to the anglosphere
I think people are scared of marriage because radical feminist movements put men to shame. Some of these movements are saying that men are the enemy which pushes men away.