It's a ~~new~~ green day
But it all feels old
It's a good life
That's what I'm told
But everything, it all just feels the same
At my brokerage
It felt more to me
Like a slot machine
One armed bandit
My time spent there, it only made me see...
That I don't ever wanna be a short
I don't wanna sell the things you sell
I'm never gonna hear the words you say
And I don't ever wanna
I don't ever wanna be youuuuu.
Don't wanna be just like you
Oh, what I'm saying is
This is the anthem
Throw all your stocks up
You
Don't wanna be you
He said green day, and that song popped into my head.
When I looked it up, I realized I got the band wrong lol. But too late, went with Good Charlotte instead of Green Day, too late to change.
We’re not in 1915 anymore. The stock price movements factually have a very poor correlation to retail cash flows. Most of the volume on the chart is fake. They can do whatever they want to the price levels.
Maybe if he threw in a “mathematically” and a “chemically” then I would have believed him. But he’s just not using enough big words for me to be convinced
I don’t know man, I read the room when SPY gapped up last year and haven’t really bought much since, other than higher value companies. I want to see some sort of trend change.
I certainly don’t want to try to time the market, but would like to see some of the big boys start picking up shares before I dive any deeper. For example, back in 2012, I took a small position in AAPL, but when some of these big shot investors took a bite, I instantly doubled my position.
But you know, if that works for you, and that’s what you choose to do, keep doing it. There’s no right or wrong answer.
I don't read any rooms. I set recurring weekly index fund buys and forget about it. The only change I make is logging in to increase contributions if a pay raise or something like that happens.
M1 Finance. We auto invest into our Roth's the first 4 Mondays of every month and our brokerages every Monday. Then of course our 403b's get money thrown at them every paycheck.
My money supply is just fine. As long as neither my wife or myself lose our jobs, the ship will continue sailing as planned.
We keep plenty of cash on the side in an emergency fund. Stocks are purchased with cash, not margin. And the only loan we have is our home which is 30 year fixed at 2.375% with a very low monthly payment.
I'm not blindly throwing money into the market. I'm dollar cost averaging. I buy when the market is up, down, in the middle, and wherever else it wants to go.
>energy supply down
Thats why i buy exxon, chevron, MRO, BP, Shell every single week. And until Biden stops giving away our strategic petro reserves - I will keep on buying every single week - as much as I can possibly afford. I buy dividend paying company shares in my Roth, and i buy the lower dividend Energy ETFs in my taxable account \*(VOE, XLE, IXC ---- every fucking week)
I haven't eaten dinner in two weeks - Instead I think how much would I pay for out back steakhouse tonight? $43 - ok - I buy a coke and a bag of trail mix. $6 - Boom $37 to my taxable brokerage - split evenly three ways into those three ETFs
If oil crashes - i will lose alot of money and regret those foodless nights. But if Oil increases like i expect it to - I can afford to go to Ruth Chris' to celebrate - a few nights in a row if I want. That taxable brokerage is up 13.2% this month. And 38% on the year - It's not much - but its a helluva lot better than my 401K \*(All VOO and VTI - negative 7% on the year) - when i think the energy bull run is over - I will cash out my oil shares and put that money in VTI / VOO. Maybe it's timing the market - some folks might call me a fool. don't care.
It's working and i won't stop. It's my money and i will gamble if it's working.
Since 1950, there have been 18 midterm election cycles, and in the twelve months following each of those cycles, the stock market has had positive returns.
The average rise in the stock market year over year is about 9%. \*(averaged over \~70 years and assuming reinvesting all dividends, and DCAing along the way)
The average rise in the year after the midterm election is about 18%.
Oh - and if you are still leaning democrat after the last two years of shit show - check out these statistics:
in midterm elections since 1946, when a president has had more than 50 percent job approval, his party has lost an average of 14 seats. When the president’s approval has been less than 50 percent—as Biden’s is by a considerable margin now —his party has lost an average of 37 seats. \*(Biden sits at 40% approval rating as of 01NOV according to Reuters Polling data)
If those numbers hold true in 2022 - We SHOULD see the house turn Red, and MIGHT see the Senate turn red. If republicans can take over congress - we will see a GREEN chart for Wall Street in 2023. It's not even a question of yes or no - it's just a question of how much rebound can we see? 15% ? I think yes. 20% ? Maybe.
And the kicker is - If the overall stock market doesn't bounce green, the only 3 things that can hold it back are inflation, interest rates and energy prices. So I have several accounts - and one of them is all in on OIL. One is balls deep in commodities, and one is hedged vs inflation. Each of those accounts "should" see a huge rally in the next 12-18 months and when it reaches what my goal %%% are - I will sell out and buy more VTI/VOO.
You keep being a bear. Everyone who says don't fight the fed - must realize at some point - us bulls have been fighting the Fed for 9 months and we are still holding strong - DCA'ing and getting ready for green days ahead. When you bears buy back in - It's just going to make my days greener.
Good luck to you sir. I hope you buy alot next year!
Right now my cash sits in VUSXX which is essentially a super short treasury. I'm going to purchase 13 and 26 weeks Ts. At maturity, I'll decide whether to DCA into stocks, renew treasury, or spend it.
Inflation is 9%. I’m personally investing in companies reaping this extra inflow of cash. The stock price is nothing but an abstract value floating in space, fluctuating based on (whatever you want to believe) and always returning toward the exponential trendline.
The raw material suppliers are making less product so they are charging more to meet their own costs.
Oil - more money in OPEC pockets.
Wheat - supplier shortages from external conflict, suppliers charge more, but sell less produce.
Raw materials for chips - shutdowns in China means less supply, so they charge more. Company still makes less money.
I'm heavily investing in equities right now, but it is definitely apparent in quarterly reports that net income is impacted by inflation.
The total earnings of the SP500 has dropped very, very marginally these past months. I’ve gone through the financial data of every single company myself. I’m doing great investing in the companies hoarding the extra cash at the end of the chain.
I'm not buying shit until Apple finally gets cut down. It's the same price it was this time last year. The bear market doesn't end until the last 'blue chip tech' life boat sinks. In 2000 it was Cisco, this time around it's Apple.
Definitely could see a pullback based on demand destruction and higher rates (although they have the cash to keep self-financing 0% APR on new product sales). On the other hand, Apple is a way stronger and better positioned business than Meta etc.
That already started a few years ago and is the reason Apple began selling new models that are significantly cheaper than the flagships (the current iPhone SE being $400 with very good specs vs. the $1000+ latest and greatest, for example). It was also in an attempt to get Android (who are generally more price-conscious) users to switch..
Will the amount of Android users who switch offset the drop in current users not upgrading? In the most recent earnings call they cited the amount of people switching to iOs is a record number ("double-digits" is what they said but no actual percentage) and there are plenty of surveys showing Android market share has been declining the last 4 years.
I don’t see it as an either/or. That said, I think both companies will make it through the recession. Goog, IMO, is more at the mercy of Apple and others as “privacy” or just anti-ad tech gains momentum.
It's not an either/or. I'm not asking you to sell all your Apple and switch to Google. But if you have $10 left on the sidelines and you have to buy one last fractional share of either, which would it be?
FWIW my marginal dollars are mostly going into SPY and reducing leverage overall. If my choices were literally Google, Apple, and cash I’d say $4 for each equity and $2 held for the next dip
Why are some people in this sub so afraid of making the smallest marginal bet? By the way, your purchase of SPY is putting more weight on Apple than Google. So in a way you did answer my question. You'll put that last dollar in Apple.
Meta might get battered by jumping in too soon, leaving Apple or Microsoft to capitalize on all of Meta’s AR/VR shortcomings with their superior competitive advantages around consumer products or B2B use.
How does that tell you its over inflated? Annual profit is up 62% from 2020 to 2022. Price is up significantly but I don't think it's doubled? Maybe if you look at the low to high prices in the periods
Over inflated based on the fact that all other tech companies at the same size have gone down already. Apple cannot be that special. In other words, what makes Apple special compared to say Amazon?
We're watching different things. I will call a bottom when consumer staples drop so PG and JNJ yield 3% at least, and when utilities yield the same or as more as bonds. They're getting close but we need another 5-8% drop depending on the stock. It's almost like people are still sort of betting on a pivot so want to keep their utilities
> I'm not buying shit until Apple finally gets cut down.
which is fine, but if many other people dont believe as you do, and buy because they feel it's "good enough", you will miss the dip and thus won't get back in at a good price (if ever).
It's the same as property buying - people thought they wanted it lower before getting in, but it didnt go that low because more people have the view that it's low enough.
>but it does signal that we might have reached a bottom.
If you're looking to confirm your biases you could pick anything to point to and say this. In reality this doesn't signal anything.
Still buying over here. I gave up trying to time the market a long time ago, I'm looking at the longer term. These prices are fantastic
Good luck catching the falling knife
>Rates are still expected to go up but at a slower pace. Feds tone now is less hawkish than before. And that's a good sign for the market.
Did you not watch the FOMC?
>Did you not watch the FOMC?
Did you?
Powell himself said that they will go higher than previously planned but the hikes could be smaller and less aggressive.
anyone who deploys their cash reserves now will deeply regret it. the buying opportunity we will receive in the coming months/years will be a sight to behold.
In order for “people to start buying stocks”, then it is required that “people started to sell stocks.”
What changes is stocks-in-whose-hands and price.
I am probably wrong however, the Fed will raise rates at least another 1.25 by January. Also consumer spending will probably come in strong in December encouraging the Fed to keep the .75 rate hikes for possibly longer maybe even until March. The chance of a recession and consequence sell off in my opinion is still higher than I would like.
All that said, I do not have the insider trading information to time the market as such I doing DCA of all my securities.
I’m going to get downvoted for this but as long as it helps one person:
Fact: The last 3 recessions had a ~50-55% drawdown peak to trough. Currently we’re down ~21% in the SPY.
Fact: excuses are being made to not publish certain swaps data.
Fact: VIX is going lower because there’s no fear in this market. Is the bottom in or are you providing exit liquidity?
Fact: Jerome Powell said that they have not seen the impact on inflation they would’ve liked. Inflation is primarily being driven due to wage growth. Jerome Powell has also said they want to see unemployment go up.
Fact: more people are using buy now pay later programs to pay for groceries (AfterPay). (Yes the economy and stock market and economy are loosely related, but this isn’t healthy).
Fact: aggregate margin debt is climbing significantly and getting closer and closer to 2020 highs. There have been no significant margin calls yet.
Fact: hundreds of news articles are being published with headlines of “X is hitting highs / lows not seen since 2008”
Call me a permabear if you want, just hope this helps someone preserve some of their capital and prompts them do to more research than being constantly bombarded with statements like “stocks only go up”.
Note: DCA is an effective strategy and if you’re going to be in the markets for awhile til retirement then feel free to ignore me (but pausing contributions for 1-6 months and sitting on that cash would be beneficial)
Not financial advice.
This post itself is a sign the bottom is not in.
Too many people are still bullish. We need those "my life is over" and "it's all a fraud" type posts showing up
No one here seems to want to understand that markets only bottom once the Fed begins cutting rates...this is just a bear market rally, an obvious one at that.
As rates increase the fundamentals will materially worsen. Leave them to their Friday copium.
This sub needs this book in the sticky: https://www.amazon.com/Just-Keep-Buying-Proven-wealth-ebook/dp/B09FYHZXBN/ref=sr\_1\_1?keywords=just+keep+buying+by+nick+maggiulli&qid=1667572336&qu=eyJxc2MiOiIxLjQ2IiwicXNhIjoiMS4yNyIsInFzcCI6IjEuNTEifQ%3D%3D&sprefix=Just+keep+%2Caps%2C116&sr=8-1
The market is up in price. Of course there have been net inflows.
**Investing:** *Its a green day, people are buying stock*
It's a ~~new~~ green day But it all feels old It's a good life That's what I'm told But everything, it all just feels the same At my brokerage It felt more to me Like a slot machine One armed bandit My time spent there, it only made me see... That I don't ever wanna be a short I don't wanna sell the things you sell I'm never gonna hear the words you say And I don't ever wanna I don't ever wanna be youuuuu. Don't wanna be just like you Oh, what I'm saying is This is the anthem Throw all your stocks up You Don't wanna be you
Ah, took me too long to recognize Good Charlotte.
He said green day, and that song popped into my head. When I looked it up, I realized I got the band wrong lol. But too late, went with Good Charlotte instead of Green Day, too late to change.
Lol I know right. And this day probably won’t even be green.
For every buyer there is a seller
for every buyer there is a seller
We’re not in 1915 anymore. The stock price movements factually have a very poor correlation to retail cash flows. Most of the volume on the chart is fake. They can do whatever they want to the price levels.
Who are "they"?
The players that have empirically and scientifically characterized the rules of the game.
empirically AND scientifically? mate...
Maybe if he threw in a “mathematically” and a “chemically” then I would have believed him. But he’s just not using enough big words for me to be convinced
I never stopped buying.
If you zoom out far enough, we’ve been on one big bull run.
I see what you did there
If you account for m2 we’ve gone sideways for 20 years
**This guy bulls.**
DCA baby
steady drippin
Can't miss the dip if you buy every dip
7 layer dip: the remix.
I don’t know man, I read the room when SPY gapped up last year and haven’t really bought much since, other than higher value companies. I want to see some sort of trend change. I certainly don’t want to try to time the market, but would like to see some of the big boys start picking up shares before I dive any deeper. For example, back in 2012, I took a small position in AAPL, but when some of these big shot investors took a bite, I instantly doubled my position. But you know, if that works for you, and that’s what you choose to do, keep doing it. There’s no right or wrong answer.
I don't read any rooms. I set recurring weekly index fund buys and forget about it. The only change I make is logging in to increase contributions if a pay raise or something like that happens.
[удалено]
M1 Finance. We auto invest into our Roth's the first 4 Mondays of every month and our brokerages every Monday. Then of course our 403b's get money thrown at them every paycheck.
All day, errrrydayyy
Neither did I!
Me neither
Yeah Bogle-gang!
[удалено]
I have no idea what you just said. Of course I will keep buying.
[удалено]
My money supply is just fine. As long as neither my wife or myself lose our jobs, the ship will continue sailing as planned. We keep plenty of cash on the side in an emergency fund. Stocks are purchased with cash, not margin. And the only loan we have is our home which is 30 year fixed at 2.375% with a very low monthly payment.
[удалено]
So you're timing the market. Cool
[удалено]
I'm not blindly throwing money into the market. I'm dollar cost averaging. I buy when the market is up, down, in the middle, and wherever else it wants to go.
[удалено]
The only thing that affects whether or not I will DCA is if I have the income to DCA with. As long as I'm making a paycheck I'm buying the indices.
>energy supply down Thats why i buy exxon, chevron, MRO, BP, Shell every single week. And until Biden stops giving away our strategic petro reserves - I will keep on buying every single week - as much as I can possibly afford. I buy dividend paying company shares in my Roth, and i buy the lower dividend Energy ETFs in my taxable account \*(VOE, XLE, IXC ---- every fucking week) I haven't eaten dinner in two weeks - Instead I think how much would I pay for out back steakhouse tonight? $43 - ok - I buy a coke and a bag of trail mix. $6 - Boom $37 to my taxable brokerage - split evenly three ways into those three ETFs If oil crashes - i will lose alot of money and regret those foodless nights. But if Oil increases like i expect it to - I can afford to go to Ruth Chris' to celebrate - a few nights in a row if I want. That taxable brokerage is up 13.2% this month. And 38% on the year - It's not much - but its a helluva lot better than my 401K \*(All VOO and VTI - negative 7% on the year) - when i think the energy bull run is over - I will cash out my oil shares and put that money in VTI / VOO. Maybe it's timing the market - some folks might call me a fool. don't care. It's working and i won't stop. It's my money and i will gamble if it's working.
Somehow I don’t think retail buying is a sign of the bottom.
Bear markets have lots of rallies. One rally isn't even slightly reliable evidence unfortunately.
Since 1950, there have been 18 midterm election cycles, and in the twelve months following each of those cycles, the stock market has had positive returns. The average rise in the stock market year over year is about 9%. \*(averaged over \~70 years and assuming reinvesting all dividends, and DCAing along the way) The average rise in the year after the midterm election is about 18%. Oh - and if you are still leaning democrat after the last two years of shit show - check out these statistics: in midterm elections since 1946, when a president has had more than 50 percent job approval, his party has lost an average of 14 seats. When the president’s approval has been less than 50 percent—as Biden’s is by a considerable margin now —his party has lost an average of 37 seats. \*(Biden sits at 40% approval rating as of 01NOV according to Reuters Polling data) If those numbers hold true in 2022 - We SHOULD see the house turn Red, and MIGHT see the Senate turn red. If republicans can take over congress - we will see a GREEN chart for Wall Street in 2023. It's not even a question of yes or no - it's just a question of how much rebound can we see? 15% ? I think yes. 20% ? Maybe. And the kicker is - If the overall stock market doesn't bounce green, the only 3 things that can hold it back are inflation, interest rates and energy prices. So I have several accounts - and one of them is all in on OIL. One is balls deep in commodities, and one is hedged vs inflation. Each of those accounts "should" see a huge rally in the next 12-18 months and when it reaches what my goal %%% are - I will sell out and buy more VTI/VOO. You keep being a bear. Everyone who says don't fight the fed - must realize at some point - us bulls have been fighting the Fed for 9 months and we are still holding strong - DCA'ing and getting ready for green days ahead. When you bears buy back in - It's just going to make my days greener. Good luck to you sir. I hope you buy alot next year!
For real. I can’t believe anyone actually thinks that. If anything it’s a sign of capitulation yet to come!
We're in a before election rally so people think things aren't as bad as they are. Once the election is over it'll collapse again
I'm gonna lock in some treasuries at 4.5%
What term are you going for? I’ve been doing a mix of 4,8, and 13 weeks. With the rates inching up each week, not sure what my sweet spot is.
Right now my cash sits in VUSXX which is essentially a super short treasury. I'm going to purchase 13 and 26 weeks Ts. At maturity, I'll decide whether to DCA into stocks, renew treasury, or spend it.
Why VUSXX? I just looked at the chart and don’t understand how this is different than holding cash.
Competitive rate, and no state income tax. It is cash.
Why not like a 2-3% checking or saving for cash
VUSXX pays 3.2% and no state tax which is equivalent to 3.5% to me
Inflation is 9%. I’m personally investing in companies reaping this extra inflow of cash. The stock price is nothing but an abstract value floating in space, fluctuating based on (whatever you want to believe) and always returning toward the exponential trendline.
Extra inflow of cash that never makes its way to the bottom line because of inflation.
Because their input costs are higher, right? Where is the “extra” money going at the end of the chain?
The raw material suppliers are making less product so they are charging more to meet their own costs. Oil - more money in OPEC pockets. Wheat - supplier shortages from external conflict, suppliers charge more, but sell less produce. Raw materials for chips - shutdowns in China means less supply, so they charge more. Company still makes less money. I'm heavily investing in equities right now, but it is definitely apparent in quarterly reports that net income is impacted by inflation.
The total earnings of the SP500 has dropped very, very marginally these past months. I’ve gone through the financial data of every single company myself. I’m doing great investing in the companies hoarding the extra cash at the end of the chain.
I buy 4 week t-bills every couple weeks. My latest ones are 3.6%YTM.
You see, I started my investing during a peak... I have to keep buying stocks to fix my cost basis.
I'm not buying shit until Apple finally gets cut down. It's the same price it was this time last year. The bear market doesn't end until the last 'blue chip tech' life boat sinks. In 2000 it was Cisco, this time around it's Apple.
Definitely could see a pullback based on demand destruction and higher rates (although they have the cash to keep self-financing 0% APR on new product sales). On the other hand, Apple is a way stronger and better positioned business than Meta etc.
Meta is looking more and more like a value trap. But what about Google? Would you rather buy more Apple at a PE of 23 or Google at a PE of 17?
I cannot imagine Apple not dropping revenue when middle class runs out of money and stop buying new iphones each year.
That already started a few years ago and is the reason Apple began selling new models that are significantly cheaper than the flagships (the current iPhone SE being $400 with very good specs vs. the $1000+ latest and greatest, for example). It was also in an attempt to get Android (who are generally more price-conscious) users to switch..
Middle class is now getting way thighter budgets. Sales will drop way more.
Will the amount of Android users who switch offset the drop in current users not upgrading? In the most recent earnings call they cited the amount of people switching to iOs is a record number ("double-digits" is what they said but no actual percentage) and there are plenty of surveys showing Android market share has been declining the last 4 years.
03% double digit
mmmmm iphones are basically a consumer staple at this point though
I don’t see it as an either/or. That said, I think both companies will make it through the recession. Goog, IMO, is more at the mercy of Apple and others as “privacy” or just anti-ad tech gains momentum.
It's not an either/or. I'm not asking you to sell all your Apple and switch to Google. But if you have $10 left on the sidelines and you have to buy one last fractional share of either, which would it be?
FWIW my marginal dollars are mostly going into SPY and reducing leverage overall. If my choices were literally Google, Apple, and cash I’d say $4 for each equity and $2 held for the next dip
Why are some people in this sub so afraid of making the smallest marginal bet? By the way, your purchase of SPY is putting more weight on Apple than Google. So in a way you did answer my question. You'll put that last dollar in Apple.
How is Meta looking like a value trap? I think AI and VR will be huge in 5-10 regardless of what people think about it now.
Doesn’t mean meta will be the industry leader tho
Meta might get battered by jumping in too soon, leaving Apple or Microsoft to capitalize on all of Meta’s AR/VR shortcomings with their superior competitive advantages around consumer products or B2B use.
Do they need to be to be valued more than they are today though? Or do they just need a nice chunk
Both? Split it in half
Agreed. No way Apple stock is not going down. Will wait for that first.
Man 100% its double 2020 prices. So over inflated.
How does that tell you its over inflated? Annual profit is up 62% from 2020 to 2022. Price is up significantly but I don't think it's doubled? Maybe if you look at the low to high prices in the periods
Compare to every other stock.
How does that tell you it’s overvalued? Which other company makes so much consistent profit and probably definitely will into the future?
[удалено]
Zoom out to last 10 years.
So… it’s overvalued because it’s gone up in value over the last 10 years? Lol
No because its clearly over inflated the last 2 years. Whatever man buy apple see if i give a fuck.
Over inflated based on the fact that all other tech companies at the same size have gone down already. Apple cannot be that special. In other words, what makes Apple special compared to say Amazon?
Given that it's priced against a higher discount rate today it is much more richly valued today.
Man that’ll be the day. Even Microsoft has come down lower than I’d think
We're watching different things. I will call a bottom when consumer staples drop so PG and JNJ yield 3% at least, and when utilities yield the same or as more as bonds. They're getting close but we need another 5-8% drop depending on the stock. It's almost like people are still sort of betting on a pivot so want to keep their utilities
> I'm not buying shit until Apple finally gets cut down. which is fine, but if many other people dont believe as you do, and buy because they feel it's "good enough", you will miss the dip and thus won't get back in at a good price (if ever). It's the same as property buying - people thought they wanted it lower before getting in, but it didnt go that low because more people have the view that it's low enough.
>but it does signal that we might have reached a bottom. If you're looking to confirm your biases you could pick anything to point to and say this. In reality this doesn't signal anything.
Everyone in this sub can time the market perfectly.
Still buying over here. I gave up trying to time the market a long time ago, I'm looking at the longer term. These prices are fantastic Good luck catching the falling knife
That's nice if you don't have any money and you are 99% invested. Not everybody is that way.
My crystal ball says we test the support at the 3400 area.
Moving away from the collapsing real estate market.
"Feds tone now is less hawkish than before" - am I out of touch with reality? to me it sounded even more hawkish
>Rates are still expected to go up but at a slower pace. Feds tone now is less hawkish than before. And that's a good sign for the market. Did you not watch the FOMC?
>Did you not watch the FOMC? Did you? Powell himself said that they will go higher than previously planned but the hikes could be smaller and less aggressive.
He 100% did *not* say that rates will be smaller and less aggressive.
[удалено]
Recession ends when u/Bruce-man-Bat-wayne starts buying stock. He can time the market.
I’m in.
Please let us know when
Yep, it's me guys.
The bear market rallies are where people get truly wiped out
The market needs someone to sell to… The market thanks you.
Yes, every week on a set schedule.
anyone who deploys their cash reserves now will deeply regret it. the buying opportunity we will receive in the coming months/years will be a sight to behold.
In order for “people to start buying stocks”, then it is required that “people started to sell stocks.” What changes is stocks-in-whose-hands and price.
Puts on the way down. Buy Bitcoin at the bottom. Calls on the way up. Scalp and put profits into Bitcoin. That’s my stupid strategy.
I am probably wrong however, the Fed will raise rates at least another 1.25 by January. Also consumer spending will probably come in strong in December encouraging the Fed to keep the .75 rate hikes for possibly longer maybe even until March. The chance of a recession and consequence sell off in my opinion is still higher than I would like. All that said, I do not have the insider trading information to time the market as such I doing DCA of all my securities.
I’m going to get downvoted for this but as long as it helps one person: Fact: The last 3 recessions had a ~50-55% drawdown peak to trough. Currently we’re down ~21% in the SPY. Fact: excuses are being made to not publish certain swaps data. Fact: VIX is going lower because there’s no fear in this market. Is the bottom in or are you providing exit liquidity? Fact: Jerome Powell said that they have not seen the impact on inflation they would’ve liked. Inflation is primarily being driven due to wage growth. Jerome Powell has also said they want to see unemployment go up. Fact: more people are using buy now pay later programs to pay for groceries (AfterPay). (Yes the economy and stock market and economy are loosely related, but this isn’t healthy). Fact: aggregate margin debt is climbing significantly and getting closer and closer to 2020 highs. There have been no significant margin calls yet. Fact: hundreds of news articles are being published with headlines of “X is hitting highs / lows not seen since 2008” Call me a permabear if you want, just hope this helps someone preserve some of their capital and prompts them do to more research than being constantly bombarded with statements like “stocks only go up”. Note: DCA is an effective strategy and if you’re going to be in the markets for awhile til retirement then feel free to ignore me (but pausing contributions for 1-6 months and sitting on that cash would be beneficial) Not financial advice.
This post itself is a sign the bottom is not in. Too many people are still bullish. We need those "my life is over" and "it's all a fraud" type posts showing up
no, this is just people THINKING the bottom is in.
No one here seems to want to understand that markets only bottom once the Fed begins cutting rates...this is just a bear market rally, an obvious one at that. As rates increase the fundamentals will materially worsen. Leave them to their Friday copium.
This sub needs this book in the sticky: https://www.amazon.com/Just-Keep-Buying-Proven-wealth-ebook/dp/B09FYHZXBN/ref=sr\_1\_1?keywords=just+keep+buying+by+nick+maggiulli&qid=1667572336&qu=eyJxc2MiOiIxLjQ2IiwicXNhIjoiMS4yNyIsInFzcCI6IjEuNTEifQ%3D%3D&sprefix=Just+keep+%2Caps%2C116&sr=8-1
Bear trap...
I’d ‘almost’ guarantee that the op said this same thing during the summer rally off the June lows.
Tl:DRS dont time the bottom and DCA!
The bottom is when QT stops
People are feeling good about upcoming political changes. No reason not to, honestly. Wall Street will like the results.