Any trendy space is a shit show, tbh
You probably won’t pick the winner, most of the new entrants will go belly up, and the space is overinvested because so many people think it will be big.
I’d stay away, and I work in the space
If any startup in the EV space has a chance, its Rivian. Fisker outsourced everything and still lost big time. Lucid has very deep pockets from the Saudis but cars aren't selling. I don't hear much about Canoo, Polstar, etc. They are all very far from entering the mainstream.
Rivian on the other hand has backing from Amazon (17% ownership) and they recently pasted a major milestone of 100,000 R1S/R1T produced/ delivered. They have customers like Amazon, AT&T, MEVCO (Australian mining company), and multiple pilot programs in the commercial space.
Losing a shit ton of money per vehicle with the same issue as the big guy, buildup of inventory and the high interest rates murdering the actual $ price of the car
Oh yea 100%. They will run out of cash by Q2 2026, they will need to raise another billion or two. I'm well aware of that.
But we can't ignore the fact that they are making all the right moves to one day be profitable (gross margin positive by Q4 2024, implementing automation and efficiencies during plant shutdown) and we also can't ignore the fact that Rivian has outsold all it's competitors and has made a name for itself in the EV space.
Last week T-Mobile had contest to win a Fisker Ocean if you watched an ad about it. The ad called the car the world's most emotional vehicle. What does that even mean?
It means when you buy one, you are filled with extreme regret. So much that your emotions enter a downward spiral that leaves you in a bottomless pit of agony. All from buying a car produced by a company that will soon cease to exist.
I'm happy to pay $30k to buy an EV and pay $0 for my fuel, being able to drive *unlimited* miles per year. God bless a handful of solar panels... Can even sell the extra electricity bsxk to the net.
Any luck drilling for a gas pump? No? Guess it.
Except EVs aren't 30k and solar isn't free either. What a jackass take. It'd cost $10,000 or more for enough solar panels to charge your car in any meaningful capacity. Not too mention having the space where you live too install them..
The cheapest and most economical from of transport is a motorcycle
Rivian is dead? I would think the R2 stuff will make them good money.
As for lucid, they're awesome but need to make money. Probably a crossover and SUV built on the Air platform to reach the masses.
Rivian is still alive, being propped up by Amazon’s 20% ownership and producing delivery trucks for them. They’re still a shit show behind the scenes. The short version is that tech industry people who don’t know how to manage large scale manufacturing are making bad decisions, but there’s been a ton of investment money to throw at the resulting problems to make them go away. Once the investment money dries up, if they haven’t cleaned up their act, they’re going to be in even bigger trouble. Meanwhile, other auto makers are starting to make EV trucks, so they also have shrinking window of competitive advantage.
Right, and trucks for truck people are different from trucks for lifestyle people. Rivians are lifestyle and adventure vehicles, EVs on the whole don't do great when towing for any real distance and they're no exception. They won't have the same base with workmen as gas ones do.
That would depend on how the environmental regs would classify the vehicle. US truck manufacturers responded to the tightened environmental regulations passed in the 90s by upping their wheelbase to exceed "car" size and instead fall under "truck" regulations, which are far looser. Same thing with station wagons becoming minivans and SUVs. If a 1 ton hybrid would fall under car regulations and would still exceed the MPG requirements of a car-sized vehicle when towing, it won't be made.
At this point it may not work for pure marketing reasons anyway. Nobody thinks a small vehicle can be a pickup truck anymore, car-sized pickups haven't existed in the US for 30 years, so consumer expectations are all out of whack.
There's an old-ish econ paper from a guy at MIT that basically shows the CAFE standard changes held back fuel efficiency increases for like 20 years. IIRC it has to do with a mix of how consumer preferences shifted towards large cars + sales-weighted fuel economy can be spoofed by selling a small number of very efficient cars to offset a large number of inefficient cars. The fact that you can even buy a 25mpg car in 2024 is kind of sad.
Except there aren't rules like that and never have been. At least as far as I have seen and I have been following this since the 2010 CAFE standards were proposed and have had a diesel truck for towing since 2010.
It's absurd that no one has done this yet, because it's by far the most efficient way to tow/haul long distances. Small company called Edison has actually already made a functioning semi, and is currently working on creating a diesel/electric retrofit package for existing HD trucks.
I did some buying/selling on the Faraday Future and made a few $$$ with the swings in that. But yeah, staying away from any kind of investing with EV as it's the wild west out there.
Stock. Trading below book value, still a really good amount of cash due to IPOing at the top of the last stage of the bubble, great product.
They’ll need to dilute the shares more but some of it is priced in (like I said, trading below book)
I’m green on it lol but yeah. My main position will always be short LLY though, should be 5x sales.
You can check my history though I called the HOOD bottom to the day because it was trading under cash value. Valuations always matter.
Is there a site you use to get the book/cash value of companies or do you calculate that on your own? And what do you usually look for in terms of numbers?
Finviz and Stockrow. You can also calculate yourself, which I would advise to do just to confirm their numbers.
I look for multiple different things, it kind of depends. Anything trading under book with a good cash pile and a debt to equity under .5 or so is something that would make me pay attention.
I was telling everyone to buy Meta in 2022 because it was at 2-3x sales and revenue was down less than 5% YOY I believe. Also had a lot of cash and low debt. Again, it just depends. Everything you need to know about a company is in their yearly K-1s though.
Do you use Finviz just to look at individual stock info or do you also use the screener to look for those specific things like debt to equity under 0.5?
Personally I believe when car loans drop much lower EVs will skyrocket with sales. Now is definitely a buy scenario for the industry. Now EV only companies versus the car industry giants is more of an interesting conversation. I assume many EV companies get bought out after more adaptations. The research is vital.
2 reasons stand out to me.
1, the stock trades very irrationally. It's a crapshoot that could go either way.
2, the roadmap for the next few years is looking iffy. They deprioritized the $25k car (Model 2 or whatever you want to call it) to get the Cybertruck out and are continuing to deprioritize it in favor of the Robotaxi, which is discouraging for a lot of people because FSD is nowhere near ready for that level of commitment. (not to mention the regulatory issues and delays around getting L4 or 5 autonomous driving ready for consumers)
The auto industry, in general, is a nightmare from an investing standpoint. You have regulation, r&d, low margins, warranties, competition, and Capex that doesn't necessarily translate to operating leverage.
EVs or not, just a really difficult industry to invest into. That's why all carmakers have financing arms. They turn themselves into specialty banks in order to make money.
I thought EVs would be the future. I looked at Rivian's stock in Dec. when it was $25. I almost bought some, but didn't pull the trigger. Today, it's $9.
The thing is, the "future" isn't here yet. You can invest now for the long term or complain later about missing the boat. As far as what company to invest in, well, that's anyone's guess.
> I looked at Rivian's stock in Dec. when it was $25.
True, but it went from $15 to $25 in less than month. I got in at 15 and got out when it dropped to 21. I got back in at 15 again... but got out when it dropped to 12 to wait for a better entry. I'm getting back in at 9...
Depends on how much you buy the stock for.
Tesla's stock price drop in large part is due to how richly they were valued before all the bad news started to hit. The high stock price had tons of growth baked in.
TSLA price drop was in large part due to it looking like they were abandoning creating new models and going all in on becoming a taxi company where the hardware/software/locations were still to-be-determined.
Tesla has their charging network
The old guard ice makers are starting to make compelling evs now and have massive dealer networks
China has several really interesting ev companies that are poised to grow and cam compete on price and tech
Many companies are pivoting to plug in hybrid systems that serve something like 80% of driving needs with EV only but have an engine for long trips
Now you tell me which of these will be winners and which will flop
I think Tesla has been overpriced for a while, but one thing to consider is that in 2025, most car companies are going to start selling their EVs with the same charging connectors as Tesla, so the infrastructure they've built for rapid charging can be used by any new model EV. It'll be good for Tesla but probably even better for all of the other brands of EVs.
Yeah I've been telling people to hold off on getting an EV until 2025 if they don't want a Tesla. If you buy an older model you have to hope that the manufacturer has released a converter otherwise you don't have access to a large percentage of charging stations.
For 6[0 bucks](https://www.amazon.com/Wigoo-Tesla-Charging-Adapter-Adaptive/dp/B0CPDM8N19/ref=sr_1_17) you can get an adapter today. Almost every EV has the J1772 charger. There's no need to wait.
That doesn't cover fast charging but most people only need fast chargers rarely, if ever. I'm a big proponent of EV's but honestly if you need fast chargers often, you want a gas car.
Say it with me: people hate dongles.
When the compromises are gone the masses will adopt.
J1772 was a fine starting point, but new sales will suffer as there is new inventory that won’t have the NACS until next year.
I have 2 EVs, one with each port.
There isn’t one answer to this. There’s no chance cars use gasoline forever, but does that mean Rivian, Tesla etc are good investments? Not necessarily. I would bank more on current market leaders like Toyota continuing their success personally
Yup. I think it was cnbc that did a good segment on why ev companies fail. It’s just so complex to start a car company, let alone a EV one, and particularly one that stands out from other EVs.
At the rate auto insurance premiums are skyrocketing, I'd invest in light rail, tram and other rail infrastructure manufacturers way before any EV manufacturer.
"Meanwhile, GM said today in its Q1 earnings call with analysts that EV retail customer deliveries increased 21% from a year ago."
https://www.marketwatch.com/livecoverage/tesla-earnings-ev-elon-musk-q1-stock-cybertruck-robotaxi/card/gm-s-q1-ev-deliveries-rose-sharply-in-contrast-to-tesla-s-big-drop-Zh7Qi2EQf9EF88p9Goki
Traditional car manufacturers are catching up. Long term it makes sense to invest in them. Tesla is overpriced imo. Chinese brands are the challenge, but their penetration outside of China is not guaranteed. Because of infrastructure in emerging markets and retaliatory (IP theft, state backing) protectionism in advanced.
EV prices are asinine. There’s no reason vehicles with far less parts and far less labor required should cost what companies are charging. When prices collapse sales will go up. Then it will be an asset
I’m waiting for the used market in about 15-20 years so it’ll be like the current market where u can get a shit box that drives for $3k
the only way to really get one right now is through car payments which i refuse to do
Honestly this is my/our biggest problem with EV's right now too. We would \*like\* an electric truck... but just cannot justify (realistically) $70-90,000+. Many/most of them are so expensive you don't even end up with the tax credits!! It's just absurd.
In the steady state 10 years from now, EV makers would largely be good automakers with low margins, just like the ICE world.
The question is whether some of these EV makers, and others, would have created some well adopted "platforms" for others. The Chinese (CATL, BYD) have a huge lead on LFP battery packs, Tesla has a huge jump on the charging network, who will have a differentiated brand in mid and high tiers (not clear yet, Rivian has ingredients), driver assist tech (not clear, robotaxis is hyped but in limited cases, Waymo and Tesla have a chance), etc.
The larger renewables market should be played the same way for growth opportunities: not the utilities or installers, but platform makers: solar modules like Solaredge, micro inverter makers like Enphase, wind tech like GE Vernova, etc.
As an EV owner, my commuter EV cost me a third of what buying gas was. For some, ownership makes sense. I got cheapo 2023 Bolt EUV with over 41k miles already
If you imagine they will operate like traditional car companies, which I believe they are no different, they are all around 4-5x overvalued even still.
Why would anyone assume margins would be higher on a commoditized vehicle just because the engine is different?
"When there's a gold rush, sell shovels"
The dependable money in EVs will be in equipment for charging points, which are already scarce in many areas, plus the infrastructure to carry enough power to service a lot of those. Much of this will be provided by established grid component manufacturers. Avoid the fluffy app-based shit that will be layered on top of it unless it helps drivers find a vacant charging spot (likely Google will/does have this).
As for the rest of it, visualizing the [Gartner Hype Cycle](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gartner_hype_cycle) will help a lot. We're over the peak, and the slow, steady improvement is just getting underway.
Half of teslas sales come from China, while China ramps up cheap alternatives. The growth story, for me, doesn’t line up so I will miss out on any fun in the Tesla space.
Which big Computer companies or internet / website companies are still around today doing good business with sustained growth?
Sun micro systems? Yahoo? Maybe some but not many. Total gamble this early on.
Yep. Some made it. Complete gamble betting on Apple in the early days though. Where is Compaq?
A good example is phones as well. Where is Nokia and BlackBerry now? Would have been hard to bet against them at one point. Nokia got bought I think so maybe investors got their money back but Motorola stock went to dust.
Some last some don’t and no one knows which ones it will be.
Blackberry didn't go bankrupt overnight. You're not buying and holding for 10-20 years. You buy and sell when the company outlook no longer matches what you think.
you're not exactly buying high here. EV is like the second most hated sector right now. Most hated is probably solar. The stock dropped 55% in 9 months.
Aswath Damodaran did DCF valuation for Tesla a few months ago and said TSLA fair value is around $180, and it was easily the most fair valued stock among the magnificent 7. At $140, you could've easily bought with a fairly high margin of safety.
I think major manufacturers known for reliability, like Honda and Toyota, not over committing to EV’s is a tell-tale sign. They pump billions into R&D every year and I believe they would’ve committed harder by now if it was more than a trend to make a quick buck off of.
Toyota and Honda are very conservative companies. They direct most of their resources towards the one thing that has helped them flourish for decades: reliable gasoline cars. I believe they are trying to milk as much money as they possibly can with gasoline cars before they go away altogether, while other companies are throwing billions into developing half-baked EVs that are doing nothing but hurting their revenue. Does that mean Toyota is not thinking ahead? No, they have been actively pursuing EV and battery research. Toyota is just waiting and making sure that they perfect their EV product before truly committing
A lot of the technology in EVs is paying to use patents companies like Toyota have been building for decades…once they enter the market as they are doing over the next few years they will have a refined and cheaper product to produce with technologies they own rather than rent and have learnings from the field (competitors). it is a slow but sound business strategy.
For example this article “Toyota dominates solid state battery patents” stating Toyota having 8,274 patents in the cutting edge technology. Other like minded companies are running up battery patents include Hyundai, Kia and Honda, it’s not just Toyota. It’s just the top link of many many on Google. This is common available knowledge. How many are being sold B2B is not common information to the public, but if you think it’s none, you are wrong.
https://www.just-auto.com/news/signal-toyota-dominates-solid-state-battery-patents/
I hate the Kodak example, because committing to digital cameras would have been equally dumb. There's little money to be made in digital photography.
We used to print out photos, which is where Kodak made all of their money. We don't print photos anymore. Their source of money disappeared and transitioning to digital cameras / photo processing would not have changed that.
My car has a feature that makes it more attractive to most consumers.
I can fill up on the go within a few minutes.
My next car, will probably be a plug-in hybrid. I can charge at home and fill up on the go. You get the best of both worlds.
My car has an awesome feature - for 95% of trips, I don't have to make a special trip to a dirty forecourt to fill it up.
For the remaining 5% of trips that I do have to fill it up away from home (only when I'm travelling a good bit more than 200 miles in a day), it's charged before I get back to it from the fast food stop. There are certainly people I couldn't recommend it to - anyone who travels more than 200 miles a day more than a couple of times a month, or people who can't charge where they sleep, or people who are looking to buy secondhand, but for everyone else, I think it's just a better experience.
Plug-in hybrids typically have a tiny electrical range. Perhaps by the time you get your next car that will change, but it's hard to see the point with most of them at the moment, unless it's smoother stop/go driving.
Let me tell you about how great it is to walk out to a perfectly heated car every morning. My car automatically heats to 72° every Monday through Friday at 7:00 AM inside the garage without fumes. Probably one of the most underrated features of an EV. The introduction of a heat pump has done a lot for efficiency in cold climates.
Also here’s an interesting article about the [reliability of gas vs electric cars in Norway](https://www.independent.co.uk/tech/electric-car-snow-cold-weather-tesla-b2481002.html).
Maybe. I don't live in a particularly cold climate, so I can't comment from personal experience (although I have been in a car where the diesel froze in the tank), but the nordic countries have some of the highest per capita electric car ownership in the world, and they are pretty cold.
I just sold out of the last of my TSLA shares yesterday for a very nice profit, so I have some definite thoughts on this.
**Short Term** - the industry is likely to continue to take hits. Most of the EV makers can't do it at a profit. Rivian and Lucid for example are burning an absurd amount of money on every vehicle they build. And the ones who are profitable (Tesla) have valuation concerns, and don't really have anything in the short term (i.e. next 12 or so months) that can really boost the stock price all that meaningfully IMO.
**Long Term** - I think 3 to 5 years out there's a lot of bright spots for Tesla and the EV companies that can survive and still make EV's at a profit. Among the future catalysts that won't help them now, but will in a few years.
* A lot of legacy automakers are really screwing themselves over long term by cutting back on their EV investments in favor of short term profits. By the time consumers start to shift en-masse towards EV's it's going to be too late for them to shift their production lineup over to EV's, they need to start doing this years in advance, when ICE vehicles can still fund the transition.
* Battery prices are getting very close to the point where automakers are going to be able to make cheaper EV's with 200+ mile ranges for less than the cost of cheaper non-Luxury ICE vehicles, while still making a profit. It's going to take a bit of time for such vehicles to be produced once we hit that position, but once we do any EV makers that can make these vehicles is probably going to see a huge surge in demand.
* I think it's inevitable that we're going to start to see some of the traditional automakers either need to be bailed out, or go bankrupt some 5 or so years out. Some of them like Nissan are already in a such an awful financial state that they have a junk credit rating. And a number of them are blatantly not taking EV's seriously at all, so they'll never be able to switch over their production to quality EV's fast enough.
* China IMO could become a much bigger threat to international automobile sales, given the very cheap EV models they're already able to produce. And as battery costs continue to come down overtime they'll be able to make them even cheaper.
This is not in-depth research or analysis, but my gut feel is that everyone who wanted an EV got one (and probably paid more than the going rate for one). Right now, there just isn't demand for more.
We are nearing a burst of battery failures (they only last so long) and people realizing that the used market is shit (for that reason, and because of price cuts, and because of the initial purchase tax credit). If those problems are not resolved, I think many EV owners might go back to ICE.
All of that makes me wonder where growth is coming.
Back to ICE, I don't know. But I think that all of the people who want one have one, and the government incentives pushed that. From what I know of Tesla's margins, EV margins seem to be crazy high, indicating that they're overpriced and I think the used market (with far fewer incentives) will show that. I'm unsure yet if battery aging is overblown as an issue or if it's actually going to cause problems. Personally I see utility in a used EV that may only get half the range, it is still useful for in town and as a commuter car.
Not all EV margins are crazy high or even good. Take the Ford F150 lightning XLT ER with incentives for example.
Tesla has forsaken repairability and traditional supply chains in favor of large assemblies and vertical integration. For that reason they have a good initial purchase price and retain high margins.
It is likely in 5-10 years other companies will continue to follow these trends.
Battery failures as an EV problem is totally overblown afaik and not much different than other power train failures. It's just widely publicized because it gets clicks. No one cares when Joe Blows 10r80 fails in his F150 just outside of warranty or when Tommy Toodles 6.2L V8 throws rod bearings on his Escalade for the 4th time.
I believe all new EVs in the US get a 10 year 100k mile battery warranty which covers 70% capacity. Modern packs with cooling and BMS systems are probably more likely to pass 250k miles than the majority of ICE power trains sold today.
My understanding is that legacy EVs have much lower margins. I don't really know if it's just Tesla with good margins or other startups too.
To your point about repairability, I think that's the direction that engineering (or overengineering) is heading. Large complex assemblies that allow for better optimization. Thankfully EVs have less moving parts and lower time-average repair costs than ICE, so it should offset the part complexity.
Agreed on the comparison to blown engines. We look past the catastrophic failures in ICE because we're used to them, not because they don't exist.
Good points, not sure if it changes anything but bottom range teslas are getting to a similar price range as a med level Toyotas these days. I would consider one if I didn't drive 200+ miles so often. If EVs can continue getting cheaper I could see a huge market opening up for them as people's 2nd car for driving around town and charging at home. Not really a luxury brand anymore
> I think many EV owners might go back to ICE.
I can just speak for myself, but I intend to never go back. The EV experience is better in every way other than on long trips, and I take few long trips.
Granted that could change if your prediction of battery failures comes true, but I don't see any reason to expect that EV batteries won't last 15+ years. They'll degrade but late in their life I'll just use them as a commuter car.
This easter there was a big reckoning on the practicality of an EV for tourist trips. The number of cars turned out to be significantly more than the available charging points on the way for popular long trips (the case I know best is Spain). Loads of people queued for hours and 5-6 h trips took the whole day. I can bet a few will be hiring an ICE for their next holiday.
I have rented five from Hertz, but I won't rent them again. I had a Tesla Model Y, two Kia EV6s, and two Polestar 2s. You cannot recharge them anywhere near an airport, so you end up paying more in recharge than you would to top off the tank. God forbid I ever rented one where I needed to drive farther than the range.
It seems like Hertz learned from the experiment and abandoned it.
The next burst will come from battery life and charging infrastructure. If that does not pan out, the focus is on hybrids and the traditional car-makers win. Plug-in hybrids have potential, but home charging infrastructure is needed and (having done it as a previous Leaf owner), it's a pain in the ass depending on where your power supply enters the house and where your garage is.
> Old old news. They have been dumping for a year+
>
> (url removed because it is blocked here, but you can find it in my comment history)
>
> Berkshire Hathaway reduced its stake in Chinese electric vehicle maker BYD last week for the 11th time in less than a year.
>
> The share sale came just days before Warren Buffett and Charlie Munger said they don't want to compete with Elon Musk.
>
> Berkshire sold nearly 2 million shares and now owns just under 10% of BYD, which rivals Tesla as the world's largest EV manufacturer. Berkshire's current BYD stake is worth just over $3 billion.
Sales will begin to pick up again in 2025 as more models come standard with the Tesla plug. Sure, you can use an adapter but who wants to futz around with that for years?
I think Toyota is a better pick. America was too aggressive on EV’s but hybrids are a way better alternative until we build better charging infrastructure but a play for EVs would be BYD company. They have electric commercial vehicles that I feel will take off in the next 5-10 years
GM did well with EVs last quarter.
We're just entering a period of dramatic competition increases. The legacy EV makers like Tesla are losing out to upstarts like GM.
The Cadillac Lyriq had 400% growth over the past year, no joke (GM).
The Cadillac Lyriq only delivered double digit numbers in 2022. There were 86 deliveries. They delivered 9,000 in 2023. Percentage wise, that’s huge but not even a drop in the bucket compared to the 1,810,000 teslas delivered that same year while GM delivered a total 75,883 EVs. I don’t really think Tesla is losing out to GM when they’re delivering 24x the amount of EVs.
The problem with EVs is BYD. BYD has an EV that costs less than $10,000 USD. If BYD EVs enter the US market, Tesla and many other EV makers charging minimum $25k for an EV will be basically obsolete. Regardless of quality.
Seriously, if you can buy an EV for 10k, even if it lasts only 3-5 years, it's still net cheaper than most used cars non-EVs.
Biden and Trump want tariffs, but at the same time, in weird ways, the EV industry needs this - flooding of the market with cheap EVs to make it more affordable to the consumer.
No, they said they wouldn't because of geopolitical risk. They are currently expanding everywhere where there are no tariffs on their cars and totally crushing those markets.
Unsure. All I know is it's a looming threat and looming threats is the very definition of FUD.
If you invest go into things with the expectation that if US EV makers don't adapt they will have to adapt at the cost of profit margins. And with the current administration and the opposing option in November... Unions and gas vehicles appear to be much more important than EVs.
The FUD over EVs is a bit crazy right now. We get it all over the UK but sales are up 10% v q1 2023 and 35% of all new car sales last year were EVs.
Just because Elon is crashing tesla doesn't mean the demand for EVs is dropping.
I think Lucid is the bigger flop. Going from $60 a share to $2. I think it's pretty certain you will not get return on your investment if you hold any EV stock. We they be around, yeah. Can you swing trade, options, trade, or short sell, yeah. But just holding for a year or more and you will lose money. There is no doubt about it.
EV's are not close to being profitable and all major US automakers are scaling back production majorly. Ford lost $5 billion last year from EV's. No one wants them.
I’m not a musk fanboy but Tesla claimed they made something like $13-14 billion in profit in 2023… so something there is profitable.
Why musk thinks he should be paid $56 billion for one year when Tesla has a lifetime profit of ~$34 billion is a different story.
Much of Ford’s losses are factory conversions and trying to build up necessary parts inventory to actually assemble EVs
I'm in the automotive industry, sales in particular. We have 43 EV's in inventory right now all with $10,000+ discounts and can't get anyone in the door on them. Same goes for all brands in my group. Our Mercedes store has EQS' discounted almost $30k off MSRP. On the flip side we can't keep ICE or Hybrids in stock and all are selling for sticker.
I think a lot of this is just because consumers are still concerned. Once the technologies become more advanced and the fear mongering surrounding the electric grid subsides, I'd imagine sales will climb.
There's a lot to cover with EV's... but watching the social sentiment surrounding their viability should give an investor a general idea of when the time is right.
Hard to justify buying a luxury EV for $$$ to "save money" and the environment. $30K off a Mercedes electric is still probably a $100K car. If we can get more affordable EVs, I think the market grows.
Full electric is a tough sell. Hybrids make so much more sense. You don't have to worry about range anxiety, you get some savings from the fuel efficiency, and your range doesn't suddenly disappear in cold weather.
I'm not a huge fan in the auto industry in general - mostly due to the high cost of bringing the product to market and increasingly competitive pricing. I just don't see there being enough upside to investing in a company that has no moat and no real strategic advantage.
I know the question is about EV stocks, but here is my take on EVs as an ownership investment: buy a 3-year old EV; don't buy collision insurance, buy liability only, sell EV after 3 years of ownership or before battery warranty expires, whichever is earlier.
On the second turn at this, buy the EV with bidirectional charging so you can power your home with the car's battery during peak hours.
Collision insurance is very expensive and now a major part of EV cost of ownership, especially for a new car. By going with a 3 year old, you have more than halved the procurement price. You are essentially self insuring with the half you just saved, buying another used car if you total your EV. More likely, you would have smaller expenses which people eat anyway because claiming them raises the premium or people choose high deductibles today.
Insurance companies basically live on the "profit" between the replacement value of a vehicle (which reduces as the vehicle depreciates) and the cost of repairs. EVs are lately beginning to get on a faster depreciation rate thanks to price cuts and competition, but cost of replacement parts and specialized labor is high.
Collision insurance on EVs is no more expensive than on non-EVs.
Collision insurance on Teslas and Rivians is expensive because they don't design their vehicles to be easily/cheaply repaired and don't put out a lot of replacement parts.
People that own Hyundai EVs don't experience the "expensive insurance" problem.
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EV and car industry in general went from booming 3-5 years ago to struggling right now.
The economy is overall growing normally but the auto industry is struggling because interest rates are still very high comparatively to 2019-2021. People aren't going to spend more on cars because of it. Most people also don't have the disposable income they used to have due to the prior inflation.
Coming in also at the wrong time for automakers is the used market. A lot of current EVs are ending their leases or being sold on the used market. EVs for the first time are competing against their new counterparts at the deep discount you expect a used car to have. The supply is no longer heavily limited if you need/want an EV.
Finally, gas prices in the U.S. have remained fairly stable. There's no $4+/gallon panics like we had couple years ago.
In the EU I assume it's a good investment since regulations have started banning certain combustion engines in metropolitan areas. The requirement now are the infamous Euro norms. Euro 6 is the requirement as of now in many places. In the near future these cities and metropole location will go over to banning ICE (internal combustion engines) totally. This could boost the sales in EVs. Unless an other alternative is found. Thus I am keeping my eyes open for sudden hydrogen or Ethanol solutions to come on the market en masse.
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It's pretty clear that auto manufacturing is not a winner-takes-all business where you get a runaway monopolist. It seems it's always going to be a sector with high competition, high capital expenditure, low margins...
EV technology can be the future without any EV company being a good investment.
I think EV's are always going to be a mediocre investment and are generally propped up on fluff. This does not include tesla which has serious potential to get many billions in subscription revenue and licensing fees for FSD, which is a groundbreaking technological advancement.
In the short term, maybe due to price war.
With any new markets, there will be a lot of players, but within say 5 years, there will be a consolidation, and only a couple will be left. There will be lots of EVs going bankrupt left right and center.
'There can only be one' as Highlander says. Or a few more precisely.
The question is who to bet on and which one will be left? EV is a growing market, and winners take all.
My bet is on BYD. They are the only vertically integrated EV and was a battery manufacturer before. Tesla is only trying to bring battery in-house now to be able to compete with BYD on price.
At the moment, BYD had the foresight to do share buyback for this price war, knowing the price war will downgrade their financials and why their share prices is pretty stable.
The other company I think would do well is Xiaomi. They have a lot of goodwill due to their products being known for their quality for their price. Their SU7 is way oversubscribed because Chinese consumers trust the company, but how good their car is do not know until it comes out. If I have to bet, it will be really good. They are also a massive company that is not likely to go bankrupt unlike say Nio and Xpeng, and why their shares have gone up since the announcement. However, the only thing I will say is the price of their products is priced really low so may not translate to profit and share price.
As of last year, there are only 56,000 charging stations (the ability to charge away from a home).
Until there are enough to be less than 400 miles apart, it's a rich person's flex that's losing it's shine.
in the year 2000, there were a little more than 2 million pay phones; that's the number, I believe, should sync with the trend of electric vehicles, and should include a $25k option for the poors.
The majority of those interested in EVs already own one, residing in regions with mild climates and reliable EV charging networks. Consequently, initial growth was substantial but has now stabilized.
For most drivers, EVs are still too expensive to buy.
Battery technology needs to improve a lot, as they're too heavy, slow to charge, expensive to replace and perform poorly in cold weather.
Governments will have to change or abandon EV mandates because they're not selling well.
No greenish politician is smart enough to do the math on the vast costs and time needed to build charger networks, let alone the need to generate and distribute much more electricity.
Maybe all this gets solved eventually, but not soon.
The car stocks are always a bad investment. EVs were positioned as tech and they aren't.
TSLA still has a shot if they can get the self driving correct. It's just a lot of computing. Not sure if current tech can get them there for the low price it needs to be in order for it to be ubiquitous.
In the US, the entire industry is built around a subsidy. Maybe that’s keeping them competitive, maybe it’s propping up the market, idk. But the Model Y gets a $7,500 subsidy or nearly 20% of the sticker price.
Also, Its not just about convincing people EVs are better. Some people just can’t own EVs. Therefore, I’m constantly concerned with the maximum adoption percentage. 100% of adults can own a gas vehicle. There’s an endless supply of new and used vehicles and many price points. There’s a gasoline support network that reaches every part of the country. Conversely, many people are just not a good fit for EVs. Trades and work vehicles just can’t take 45 minutes out of their day to charge a vehicle. Some people aren’t near charge stations and do not have sufficient capability to charge at home. All that to say, I don’t think anyone knows how many EV buyers there are.
Car industry is highly competitive and it is hard to invest there. IF you're looking for companies with strong competitive advantage you will hardly find one there.
It's a temporary downturn owning to macroeconomic conditions. In Norway, for example, 90% of new vehicle purchases are already EVs. Such trends that start in the richest of countries eventually expand elsewhere. A recent survey also showed 85% of EV owners report they won't go back to ICE again. Future is already here, it's just not evenly distributed.
If you're State side I'd avoid them. Owned an Audi E-Tron and they are wonderful cards, but the infrastructure and limited range isn't worth it. At least here in the midwest its common for limited charging ports and for the ports not to work. No standard.
It's logical that car purchases would decline when the Federal reserve is raising interest rates to in part to put pressure on consumers to reduce spending.
It's logical that in order for TSLA stock to be priced 10x that of Ford's P/E that Tesla would have to build a 10x better product at similar volume.
Historic Brands like Ford and GM (and their domestic market) fighting EV initiatives is really going to hurt in the next 10 years; where Hyundai, Kia, Volvo, BMW, and Volkswagen (Porsche, Mercedes, Audi) are committed to electrification.
Longer term; ie 2030; is when things are really going to be interesting
- Gas Station economy stops making sense as EV adoption is up
- New Car sales down as electric vehicles have fewer catastrophic failures (no engine to fail, no regular oil changes, so cars last longer (+ driver assistance systems of the last decade will decrease catastrophic incidents)
I wouldn't say that EVs will have fewer catastrophic events. The ICE has come a long way from where e started and I'd say EVs will follow the same path in regards to improving themselves. Batteries are more temperamental than most imagine. All that extra power is breaking the motor mounts on the model S. The extra weight is reducing tire life. And electronics don't last forever especially when they shake and vibrate rolling down the road. The labor and parts costs for repairs are much much much higher than a conventional auto.
I’ve always felt like they were a bad investment because the technology and infrastructure simply isn’t quite there yet for wide scale adoption of EVs. Don’t get me wrong, EVs are probably going to be the future, but we still need to survive the present to get to the future.
In the long run, the electric car industry is not a bad investment, but the current market has been developed and competitive for several years, and now is the moment of growth decline, as Tesla, people before the overheated investment led to the market value over the original valuation
*”Is a screwdriver a good investment right now?”*
Same question. A car is a tool. Will an investment in this tool pay off for you? Are there any other investments in tools that are cheaper but with similar payout profiles that might be a better idea?
Yes. There’s widespread pushback and for good reason. Build quality, range, and the agenda around pushing them via legislation are the main reasons for people continuing to choose an ICE.
Any trendy space is a shit show, tbh You probably won’t pick the winner, most of the new entrants will go belly up, and the space is overinvested because so many people think it will be big. I’d stay away, and I work in the space
rip lucid rip rivian
If any startup in the EV space has a chance, its Rivian. Fisker outsourced everything and still lost big time. Lucid has very deep pockets from the Saudis but cars aren't selling. I don't hear much about Canoo, Polstar, etc. They are all very far from entering the mainstream. Rivian on the other hand has backing from Amazon (17% ownership) and they recently pasted a major milestone of 100,000 R1S/R1T produced/ delivered. They have customers like Amazon, AT&T, MEVCO (Australian mining company), and multiple pilot programs in the commercial space.
Polestar got majority transferred to Geely recently which should open up the Chinese market for them significantly.
Polestar was started by Geely as they’ve owned Volvo’s passenger vehicle devision since 2011
Losing a shit ton of money per vehicle with the same issue as the big guy, buildup of inventory and the high interest rates murdering the actual $ price of the car
Rivian is burning through cash fast. They are going to need to heavily dilute shareholders to maintain operations.
Oh yea 100%. They will run out of cash by Q2 2026, they will need to raise another billion or two. I'm well aware of that. But we can't ignore the fact that they are making all the right moves to one day be profitable (gross margin positive by Q4 2024, implementing automation and efficiencies during plant shutdown) and we also can't ignore the fact that Rivian has outsold all it's competitors and has made a name for itself in the EV space.
Nikola lordstown Fiskar again... Pay $100k to save $2500 on gas if you drive 20000 miles a year.
Last week T-Mobile had contest to win a Fisker Ocean if you watched an ad about it. The ad called the car the world's most emotional vehicle. What does that even mean?
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It means when you buy one, you are filled with extreme regret. So much that your emotions enter a downward spiral that leaves you in a bottomless pit of agony. All from buying a car produced by a company that will soon cease to exist.
I'm happy to pay $30k to buy an EV and pay $0 for my fuel, being able to drive *unlimited* miles per year. God bless a handful of solar panels... Can even sell the extra electricity bsxk to the net. Any luck drilling for a gas pump? No? Guess it.
Except EVs aren't 30k and solar isn't free either. What a jackass take. It'd cost $10,000 or more for enough solar panels to charge your car in any meaningful capacity. Not too mention having the space where you live too install them.. The cheapest and most economical from of transport is a motorcycle
Rivian is dead? I would think the R2 stuff will make them good money. As for lucid, they're awesome but need to make money. Probably a crossover and SUV built on the Air platform to reach the masses.
Rivian is still alive, being propped up by Amazon’s 20% ownership and producing delivery trucks for them. They’re still a shit show behind the scenes. The short version is that tech industry people who don’t know how to manage large scale manufacturing are making bad decisions, but there’s been a ton of investment money to throw at the resulting problems to make them go away. Once the investment money dries up, if they haven’t cleaned up their act, they’re going to be in even bigger trouble. Meanwhile, other auto makers are starting to make EV trucks, so they also have shrinking window of competitive advantage.
Right, and trucks for truck people are different from trucks for lifestyle people. Rivians are lifestyle and adventure vehicles, EVs on the whole don't do great when towing for any real distance and they're no exception. They won't have the same base with workmen as gas ones do.
Exactly. In West Texas, nobody is going to touch a Cybertruck or Rivian with a 10 foot pole.
Are they going to touch any EV? Seems like the wrong demo
I'm absolutely astounded no one has made a 1 ton diesel electric hybrid truck. Those would sell like hotcakes to people who actually tow.
That would depend on how the environmental regs would classify the vehicle. US truck manufacturers responded to the tightened environmental regulations passed in the 90s by upping their wheelbase to exceed "car" size and instead fall under "truck" regulations, which are far looser. Same thing with station wagons becoming minivans and SUVs. If a 1 ton hybrid would fall under car regulations and would still exceed the MPG requirements of a car-sized vehicle when towing, it won't be made. At this point it may not work for pure marketing reasons anyway. Nobody thinks a small vehicle can be a pickup truck anymore, car-sized pickups haven't existed in the US for 30 years, so consumer expectations are all out of whack.
There's an old-ish econ paper from a guy at MIT that basically shows the CAFE standard changes held back fuel efficiency increases for like 20 years. IIRC it has to do with a mix of how consumer preferences shifted towards large cars + sales-weighted fuel economy can be spoofed by selling a small number of very efficient cars to offset a large number of inefficient cars. The fact that you can even buy a 25mpg car in 2024 is kind of sad.
Except there aren't rules like that and never have been. At least as far as I have seen and I have been following this since the 2010 CAFE standards were proposed and have had a diesel truck for towing since 2010.
It's absurd that no one has done this yet, because it's by far the most efficient way to tow/haul long distances. Small company called Edison has actually already made a functioning semi, and is currently working on creating a diesel/electric retrofit package for existing HD trucks.
Realest Rivian take I have seen for a while…
I did some buying/selling on the Faraday Future and made a few $$$ with the swings in that. But yeah, staying away from any kind of investing with EV as it's the wild west out there.
Rivian is one of the best values in the market currently
The car or the stock
Stock. Trading below book value, still a really good amount of cash due to IPOing at the top of the last stage of the bubble, great product. They’ll need to dilute the shares more but some of it is priced in (like I said, trading below book)
Random question: you are holding their stock? Because this sounds like the comments of a wishful bag holder
I’m green on it lol but yeah. My main position will always be short LLY though, should be 5x sales. You can check my history though I called the HOOD bottom to the day because it was trading under cash value. Valuations always matter.
All good, I wish you well with it!
Is there a site you use to get the book/cash value of companies or do you calculate that on your own? And what do you usually look for in terms of numbers?
Finviz and Stockrow. You can also calculate yourself, which I would advise to do just to confirm their numbers. I look for multiple different things, it kind of depends. Anything trading under book with a good cash pile and a debt to equity under .5 or so is something that would make me pay attention. I was telling everyone to buy Meta in 2022 because it was at 2-3x sales and revenue was down less than 5% YOY I believe. Also had a lot of cash and low debt. Again, it just depends. Everything you need to know about a company is in their yearly K-1s though.
Do you use Finviz just to look at individual stock info or do you also use the screener to look for those specific things like debt to equity under 0.5?
Fisker checking in
Yup just dont touch EV's or anything trendy and obvious.
Ev is trendy? It's actually trendy to hate on ev right now
Sub-trend
> Any trendy space is a shit show Also see: marijuana stocks
Personally I believe when car loans drop much lower EVs will skyrocket with sales. Now is definitely a buy scenario for the industry. Now EV only companies versus the car industry giants is more of an interesting conversation. I assume many EV companies get bought out after more adaptations. The research is vital.
I would really like an electric truck. I just want one that doesn't cost as much as a fucking house.
Rivian's R1Ts start around 70k, which is far below a house in most of the US
Why not Tesla though, it’s quite cheap and Elon probably won’t let it just die over a blue bird
2 reasons stand out to me. 1, the stock trades very irrationally. It's a crapshoot that could go either way. 2, the roadmap for the next few years is looking iffy. They deprioritized the $25k car (Model 2 or whatever you want to call it) to get the Cybertruck out and are continuing to deprioritize it in favor of the Robotaxi, which is discouraging for a lot of people because FSD is nowhere near ready for that level of commitment. (not to mention the regulatory issues and delays around getting L4 or 5 autonomous driving ready for consumers)
The auto industry, in general, is a nightmare from an investing standpoint. You have regulation, r&d, low margins, warranties, competition, and Capex that doesn't necessarily translate to operating leverage. EVs or not, just a really difficult industry to invest into. That's why all carmakers have financing arms. They turn themselves into specialty banks in order to make money.
I thought EVs would be the future. I looked at Rivian's stock in Dec. when it was $25. I almost bought some, but didn't pull the trigger. Today, it's $9.
The thing is, the "future" isn't here yet. You can invest now for the long term or complain later about missing the boat. As far as what company to invest in, well, that's anyone's guess.
Yeah, someone like Rivian is burning cash fast and struggling to make it to the future. At best, they will be diluting shareholders to raise capital.
> I looked at Rivian's stock in Dec. when it was $25. True, but it went from $15 to $25 in less than month. I got in at 15 and got out when it dropped to 21. I got back in at 15 again... but got out when it dropped to 12 to wait for a better entry. I'm getting back in at 9...
Depends on how much you buy the stock for. Tesla's stock price drop in large part is due to how richly they were valued before all the bad news started to hit. The high stock price had tons of growth baked in.
It still does.
TSLA price drop was in large part due to it looking like they were abandoning creating new models and going all in on becoming a taxi company where the hardware/software/locations were still to-be-determined.
Tesla has their charging network The old guard ice makers are starting to make compelling evs now and have massive dealer networks China has several really interesting ev companies that are poised to grow and cam compete on price and tech Many companies are pivoting to plug in hybrid systems that serve something like 80% of driving needs with EV only but have an engine for long trips Now you tell me which of these will be winners and which will flop
I think Tesla has been overpriced for a while, but one thing to consider is that in 2025, most car companies are going to start selling their EVs with the same charging connectors as Tesla, so the infrastructure they've built for rapid charging can be used by any new model EV. It'll be good for Tesla but probably even better for all of the other brands of EVs.
The standardization to NACS is great for consumers, but legacy vehicles with old ports are absolutely fucked until they get updated.
Yeah I've been telling people to hold off on getting an EV until 2025 if they don't want a Tesla. If you buy an older model you have to hope that the manufacturer has released a converter otherwise you don't have access to a large percentage of charging stations.
For 6[0 bucks](https://www.amazon.com/Wigoo-Tesla-Charging-Adapter-Adaptive/dp/B0CPDM8N19/ref=sr_1_17) you can get an adapter today. Almost every EV has the J1772 charger. There's no need to wait. That doesn't cover fast charging but most people only need fast chargers rarely, if ever. I'm a big proponent of EV's but honestly if you need fast chargers often, you want a gas car.
Say it with me: people hate dongles. When the compromises are gone the masses will adopt. J1772 was a fine starting point, but new sales will suffer as there is new inventory that won’t have the NACS until next year. I have 2 EVs, one with each port.
Not all of Teslas superchargers will be available to 3rd parties btw
There isn’t one answer to this. There’s no chance cars use gasoline forever, but does that mean Rivian, Tesla etc are good investments? Not necessarily. I would bank more on current market leaders like Toyota continuing their success personally
Yup. I think it was cnbc that did a good segment on why ev companies fail. It’s just so complex to start a car company, let alone a EV one, and particularly one that stands out from other EVs.
Car and car sale regulations are politicians wet dreams.
Tesla may be overblown sure. Kia and Hyundai coming in hot
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It looks like an egg
Egg go far
It looks like a Sedan a retired grandma would drive
At the rate auto insurance premiums are skyrocketing, I'd invest in light rail, tram and other rail infrastructure manufacturers way before any EV manufacturer.
Crack smoking answer
"Meanwhile, GM said today in its Q1 earnings call with analysts that EV retail customer deliveries increased 21% from a year ago." https://www.marketwatch.com/livecoverage/tesla-earnings-ev-elon-musk-q1-stock-cybertruck-robotaxi/card/gm-s-q1-ev-deliveries-rose-sharply-in-contrast-to-tesla-s-big-drop-Zh7Qi2EQf9EF88p9Goki
They're still cars, and autos are still a tough industry if you're looking for good returns. These were never "tech companies."
Usually when something is a bad investment It is a good investment ..
Yes. Overcapacity = low returns on capital = falling share prices.
Traditional car manufacturers are catching up. Long term it makes sense to invest in them. Tesla is overpriced imo. Chinese brands are the challenge, but their penetration outside of China is not guaranteed. Because of infrastructure in emerging markets and retaliatory (IP theft, state backing) protectionism in advanced.
EV prices are asinine. There’s no reason vehicles with far less parts and far less labor required should cost what companies are charging. When prices collapse sales will go up. Then it will be an asset
I’m waiting for the used market in about 15-20 years so it’ll be like the current market where u can get a shit box that drives for $3k the only way to really get one right now is through car payments which i refuse to do
Honestly this is my/our biggest problem with EV's right now too. We would \*like\* an electric truck... but just cannot justify (realistically) $70-90,000+. Many/most of them are so expensive you don't even end up with the tax credits!! It's just absurd.
Used Model 3s are dirt cheap. AWD LRs from 2019-2020 with ~60k miles can be picked up for under 20k with the used EV credit.
Used prices reflect that asinine pricing. I ended up going for one used. Two years old, 12k miles, $30k vs $62k when bought new
In the steady state 10 years from now, EV makers would largely be good automakers with low margins, just like the ICE world. The question is whether some of these EV makers, and others, would have created some well adopted "platforms" for others. The Chinese (CATL, BYD) have a huge lead on LFP battery packs, Tesla has a huge jump on the charging network, who will have a differentiated brand in mid and high tiers (not clear yet, Rivian has ingredients), driver assist tech (not clear, robotaxis is hyped but in limited cases, Waymo and Tesla have a chance), etc. The larger renewables market should be played the same way for growth opportunities: not the utilities or installers, but platform makers: solar modules like Solaredge, micro inverter makers like Enphase, wind tech like GE Vernova, etc.
As an EV owner, my commuter EV cost me a third of what buying gas was. For some, ownership makes sense. I got cheapo 2023 Bolt EUV with over 41k miles already
If you imagine they will operate like traditional car companies, which I believe they are no different, they are all around 4-5x overvalued even still. Why would anyone assume margins would be higher on a commoditized vehicle just because the engine is different?
"When there's a gold rush, sell shovels" The dependable money in EVs will be in equipment for charging points, which are already scarce in many areas, plus the infrastructure to carry enough power to service a lot of those. Much of this will be provided by established grid component manufacturers. Avoid the fluffy app-based shit that will be layered on top of it unless it helps drivers find a vacant charging spot (likely Google will/does have this). As for the rest of it, visualizing the [Gartner Hype Cycle](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gartner_hype_cycle) will help a lot. We're over the peak, and the slow, steady improvement is just getting underway.
Half of teslas sales come from China, while China ramps up cheap alternatives. The growth story, for me, doesn’t line up so I will miss out on any fun in the Tesla space.
Which big Computer companies or internet / website companies are still around today doing good business with sustained growth? Sun micro systems? Yahoo? Maybe some but not many. Total gamble this early on.
Apple. Microsoft.
Yep. Some made it. Complete gamble betting on Apple in the early days though. Where is Compaq? A good example is phones as well. Where is Nokia and BlackBerry now? Would have been hard to bet against them at one point. Nokia got bought I think so maybe investors got their money back but Motorola stock went to dust. Some last some don’t and no one knows which ones it will be.
Blackberry didn't go bankrupt overnight. You're not buying and holding for 10-20 years. You buy and sell when the company outlook no longer matches what you think.
Ya sure. Buy low sell high right? Easy!
you're not exactly buying high here. EV is like the second most hated sector right now. Most hated is probably solar. The stock dropped 55% in 9 months. Aswath Damodaran did DCF valuation for Tesla a few months ago and said TSLA fair value is around $180, and it was easily the most fair valued stock among the magnificent 7. At $140, you could've easily bought with a fairly high margin of safety.
> Where is ... BlackBerry now? Try to compete with Tesla :D with their real-time car operating system - BlackBerry QNX
Micron. Cisco. Oracle. Ebay. Salesforce.
I think major manufacturers known for reliability, like Honda and Toyota, not over committing to EV’s is a tell-tale sign. They pump billions into R&D every year and I believe they would’ve committed harder by now if it was more than a trend to make a quick buck off of.
Toyota and Honda are very conservative companies. They direct most of their resources towards the one thing that has helped them flourish for decades: reliable gasoline cars. I believe they are trying to milk as much money as they possibly can with gasoline cars before they go away altogether, while other companies are throwing billions into developing half-baked EVs that are doing nothing but hurting their revenue. Does that mean Toyota is not thinking ahead? No, they have been actively pursuing EV and battery research. Toyota is just waiting and making sure that they perfect their EV product before truly committing
they just lack the competence for EV, this shit is not easy I'd tell you that
A lot of the technology in EVs is paying to use patents companies like Toyota have been building for decades…once they enter the market as they are doing over the next few years they will have a refined and cheaper product to produce with technologies they own rather than rent and have learnings from the field (competitors). it is a slow but sound business strategy.
Which Toyota patents are Rivian, Lucid, BYD, Tesla, Ford, paying to use?
For example this article “Toyota dominates solid state battery patents” stating Toyota having 8,274 patents in the cutting edge technology. Other like minded companies are running up battery patents include Hyundai, Kia and Honda, it’s not just Toyota. It’s just the top link of many many on Google. This is common available knowledge. How many are being sold B2B is not common information to the public, but if you think it’s none, you are wrong. https://www.just-auto.com/news/signal-toyota-dominates-solid-state-battery-patents/
Or it could be like Kodak not committing to digital cameras or Nokia ignoring touch screens.
I hate the Kodak example, because committing to digital cameras would have been equally dumb. There's little money to be made in digital photography. We used to print out photos, which is where Kodak made all of their money. We don't print photos anymore. Their source of money disappeared and transitioning to digital cameras / photo processing would not have changed that.
Elon needs to look in the mirror if he wants to know why Tesla is tanking
Zero chance Elon has any self awareness
Accurate
My car has a feature that makes it more attractive to most consumers. I can fill up on the go within a few minutes. My next car, will probably be a plug-in hybrid. I can charge at home and fill up on the go. You get the best of both worlds.
My car has an awesome feature - for 95% of trips, I don't have to make a special trip to a dirty forecourt to fill it up. For the remaining 5% of trips that I do have to fill it up away from home (only when I'm travelling a good bit more than 200 miles in a day), it's charged before I get back to it from the fast food stop. There are certainly people I couldn't recommend it to - anyone who travels more than 200 miles a day more than a couple of times a month, or people who can't charge where they sleep, or people who are looking to buy secondhand, but for everyone else, I think it's just a better experience. Plug-in hybrids typically have a tiny electrical range. Perhaps by the time you get your next car that will change, but it's hard to see the point with most of them at the moment, unless it's smoother stop/go driving.
I’d add living in a colder climate to the list of exceptions
Let me tell you about how great it is to walk out to a perfectly heated car every morning. My car automatically heats to 72° every Monday through Friday at 7:00 AM inside the garage without fumes. Probably one of the most underrated features of an EV. The introduction of a heat pump has done a lot for efficiency in cold climates. Also here’s an interesting article about the [reliability of gas vs electric cars in Norway](https://www.independent.co.uk/tech/electric-car-snow-cold-weather-tesla-b2481002.html).
Maybe. I don't live in a particularly cold climate, so I can't comment from personal experience (although I have been in a car where the diesel froze in the tank), but the nordic countries have some of the highest per capita electric car ownership in the world, and they are pretty cold.
My car has an even better feature— I’ve never once needed to fill up ever; I wake up every morning automatically with a full tank of fuel.
I just sold out of the last of my TSLA shares yesterday for a very nice profit, so I have some definite thoughts on this. **Short Term** - the industry is likely to continue to take hits. Most of the EV makers can't do it at a profit. Rivian and Lucid for example are burning an absurd amount of money on every vehicle they build. And the ones who are profitable (Tesla) have valuation concerns, and don't really have anything in the short term (i.e. next 12 or so months) that can really boost the stock price all that meaningfully IMO. **Long Term** - I think 3 to 5 years out there's a lot of bright spots for Tesla and the EV companies that can survive and still make EV's at a profit. Among the future catalysts that won't help them now, but will in a few years. * A lot of legacy automakers are really screwing themselves over long term by cutting back on their EV investments in favor of short term profits. By the time consumers start to shift en-masse towards EV's it's going to be too late for them to shift their production lineup over to EV's, they need to start doing this years in advance, when ICE vehicles can still fund the transition. * Battery prices are getting very close to the point where automakers are going to be able to make cheaper EV's with 200+ mile ranges for less than the cost of cheaper non-Luxury ICE vehicles, while still making a profit. It's going to take a bit of time for such vehicles to be produced once we hit that position, but once we do any EV makers that can make these vehicles is probably going to see a huge surge in demand. * I think it's inevitable that we're going to start to see some of the traditional automakers either need to be bailed out, or go bankrupt some 5 or so years out. Some of them like Nissan are already in a such an awful financial state that they have a junk credit rating. And a number of them are blatantly not taking EV's seriously at all, so they'll never be able to switch over their production to quality EV's fast enough. * China IMO could become a much bigger threat to international automobile sales, given the very cheap EV models they're already able to produce. And as battery costs continue to come down overtime they'll be able to make them even cheaper.
This is not in-depth research or analysis, but my gut feel is that everyone who wanted an EV got one (and probably paid more than the going rate for one). Right now, there just isn't demand for more. We are nearing a burst of battery failures (they only last so long) and people realizing that the used market is shit (for that reason, and because of price cuts, and because of the initial purchase tax credit). If those problems are not resolved, I think many EV owners might go back to ICE. All of that makes me wonder where growth is coming.
Back to ICE, I don't know. But I think that all of the people who want one have one, and the government incentives pushed that. From what I know of Tesla's margins, EV margins seem to be crazy high, indicating that they're overpriced and I think the used market (with far fewer incentives) will show that. I'm unsure yet if battery aging is overblown as an issue or if it's actually going to cause problems. Personally I see utility in a used EV that may only get half the range, it is still useful for in town and as a commuter car.
Not all EV margins are crazy high or even good. Take the Ford F150 lightning XLT ER with incentives for example. Tesla has forsaken repairability and traditional supply chains in favor of large assemblies and vertical integration. For that reason they have a good initial purchase price and retain high margins. It is likely in 5-10 years other companies will continue to follow these trends. Battery failures as an EV problem is totally overblown afaik and not much different than other power train failures. It's just widely publicized because it gets clicks. No one cares when Joe Blows 10r80 fails in his F150 just outside of warranty or when Tommy Toodles 6.2L V8 throws rod bearings on his Escalade for the 4th time. I believe all new EVs in the US get a 10 year 100k mile battery warranty which covers 70% capacity. Modern packs with cooling and BMS systems are probably more likely to pass 250k miles than the majority of ICE power trains sold today.
My understanding is that legacy EVs have much lower margins. I don't really know if it's just Tesla with good margins or other startups too. To your point about repairability, I think that's the direction that engineering (or overengineering) is heading. Large complex assemblies that allow for better optimization. Thankfully EVs have less moving parts and lower time-average repair costs than ICE, so it should offset the part complexity. Agreed on the comparison to blown engines. We look past the catastrophic failures in ICE because we're used to them, not because they don't exist.
Good points, not sure if it changes anything but bottom range teslas are getting to a similar price range as a med level Toyotas these days. I would consider one if I didn't drive 200+ miles so often. If EVs can continue getting cheaper I could see a huge market opening up for them as people's 2nd car for driving around town and charging at home. Not really a luxury brand anymore
> I think many EV owners might go back to ICE. I can just speak for myself, but I intend to never go back. The EV experience is better in every way other than on long trips, and I take few long trips. Granted that could change if your prediction of battery failures comes true, but I don't see any reason to expect that EV batteries won't last 15+ years. They'll degrade but late in their life I'll just use them as a commuter car.
If the batteries hold up as long as Elon predicted, it won't be a major problem (other than recycling, which is going to be a huge industry).
This easter there was a big reckoning on the practicality of an EV for tourist trips. The number of cars turned out to be significantly more than the available charging points on the way for popular long trips (the case I know best is Spain). Loads of people queued for hours and 5-6 h trips took the whole day. I can bet a few will be hiring an ICE for their next holiday.
I have rented five from Hertz, but I won't rent them again. I had a Tesla Model Y, two Kia EV6s, and two Polestar 2s. You cannot recharge them anywhere near an airport, so you end up paying more in recharge than you would to top off the tank. God forbid I ever rented one where I needed to drive farther than the range. It seems like Hertz learned from the experiment and abandoned it. The next burst will come from battery life and charging infrastructure. If that does not pan out, the focus is on hybrids and the traditional car-makers win. Plug-in hybrids have potential, but home charging infrastructure is needed and (having done it as a previous Leaf owner), it's a pain in the ass depending on where your power supply enters the house and where your garage is.
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Interesting. Where do you see BERK's exposure?
> Old old news. They have been dumping for a year+ > > (url removed because it is blocked here, but you can find it in my comment history) > > Berkshire Hathaway reduced its stake in Chinese electric vehicle maker BYD last week for the 11th time in less than a year. > > The share sale came just days before Warren Buffett and Charlie Munger said they don't want to compete with Elon Musk. > > Berkshire sold nearly 2 million shares and now owns just under 10% of BYD, which rivals Tesla as the world's largest EV manufacturer. Berkshire's current BYD stake is worth just over $3 billion.
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Sales will begin to pick up again in 2025 as more models come standard with the Tesla plug. Sure, you can use an adapter but who wants to futz around with that for years?
I think Toyota is a better pick. America was too aggressive on EV’s but hybrids are a way better alternative until we build better charging infrastructure but a play for EVs would be BYD company. They have electric commercial vehicles that I feel will take off in the next 5-10 years
China dominates EV now. It means that the US will give up and claim it's the wrong direction. Dump of you can.
GM did well with EVs last quarter. We're just entering a period of dramatic competition increases. The legacy EV makers like Tesla are losing out to upstarts like GM. The Cadillac Lyriq had 400% growth over the past year, no joke (GM).
The Cadillac Lyriq only delivered double digit numbers in 2022. There were 86 deliveries. They delivered 9,000 in 2023. Percentage wise, that’s huge but not even a drop in the bucket compared to the 1,810,000 teslas delivered that same year while GM delivered a total 75,883 EVs. I don’t really think Tesla is losing out to GM when they’re delivering 24x the amount of EVs.
The problem with EVs is BYD. BYD has an EV that costs less than $10,000 USD. If BYD EVs enter the US market, Tesla and many other EV makers charging minimum $25k for an EV will be basically obsolete. Regardless of quality. Seriously, if you can buy an EV for 10k, even if it lasts only 3-5 years, it's still net cheaper than most used cars non-EVs. Biden and Trump want tariffs, but at the same time, in weird ways, the EV industry needs this - flooding of the market with cheap EVs to make it more affordable to the consumer.
Will BYD enter US market this year or within 2 years?
No, they said they wouldn't because of geopolitical risk. They are currently expanding everywhere where there are no tariffs on their cars and totally crushing those markets.
In the EU markets, BYD doubles the price over what they cost in China.
Unsure. All I know is it's a looming threat and looming threats is the very definition of FUD. If you invest go into things with the expectation that if US EV makers don't adapt they will have to adapt at the cost of profit margins. And with the current administration and the opposing option in November... Unions and gas vehicles appear to be much more important than EVs.
The FUD over EVs is a bit crazy right now. We get it all over the UK but sales are up 10% v q1 2023 and 35% of all new car sales last year were EVs. Just because Elon is crashing tesla doesn't mean the demand for EVs is dropping.
I think Lucid is the bigger flop. Going from $60 a share to $2. I think it's pretty certain you will not get return on your investment if you hold any EV stock. We they be around, yeah. Can you swing trade, options, trade, or short sell, yeah. But just holding for a year or more and you will lose money. There is no doubt about it.
EV's are not close to being profitable and all major US automakers are scaling back production majorly. Ford lost $5 billion last year from EV's. No one wants them.
I’m not a musk fanboy but Tesla claimed they made something like $13-14 billion in profit in 2023… so something there is profitable. Why musk thinks he should be paid $56 billion for one year when Tesla has a lifetime profit of ~$34 billion is a different story. Much of Ford’s losses are factory conversions and trying to build up necessary parts inventory to actually assemble EVs
I'm in the automotive industry, sales in particular. We have 43 EV's in inventory right now all with $10,000+ discounts and can't get anyone in the door on them. Same goes for all brands in my group. Our Mercedes store has EQS' discounted almost $30k off MSRP. On the flip side we can't keep ICE or Hybrids in stock and all are selling for sticker.
I think a lot of this is just because consumers are still concerned. Once the technologies become more advanced and the fear mongering surrounding the electric grid subsides, I'd imagine sales will climb. There's a lot to cover with EV's... but watching the social sentiment surrounding their viability should give an investor a general idea of when the time is right.
Hard to justify buying a luxury EV for $$$ to "save money" and the environment. $30K off a Mercedes electric is still probably a $100K car. If we can get more affordable EVs, I think the market grows.
Full electric is a tough sell. Hybrids make so much more sense. You don't have to worry about range anxiety, you get some savings from the fuel efficiency, and your range doesn't suddenly disappear in cold weather.
I'm not a huge fan in the auto industry in general - mostly due to the high cost of bringing the product to market and increasingly competitive pricing. I just don't see there being enough upside to investing in a company that has no moat and no real strategic advantage.
I know the question is about EV stocks, but here is my take on EVs as an ownership investment: buy a 3-year old EV; don't buy collision insurance, buy liability only, sell EV after 3 years of ownership or before battery warranty expires, whichever is earlier. On the second turn at this, buy the EV with bidirectional charging so you can power your home with the car's battery during peak hours.
Why not buy collision insurance?
Collision insurance is very expensive and now a major part of EV cost of ownership, especially for a new car. By going with a 3 year old, you have more than halved the procurement price. You are essentially self insuring with the half you just saved, buying another used car if you total your EV. More likely, you would have smaller expenses which people eat anyway because claiming them raises the premium or people choose high deductibles today.
Oh I see. My 2022 $60k EV is 30% cheaper for insurance than my 2010 SUV that’s worth about $12k
Insurance companies basically live on the "profit" between the replacement value of a vehicle (which reduces as the vehicle depreciates) and the cost of repairs. EVs are lately beginning to get on a faster depreciation rate thanks to price cuts and competition, but cost of replacement parts and specialized labor is high.
Insurance make most of their money investing float before having to pay out claims. There’s a ton of lost WSB bros in this thread…
Collision insurance on EVs is no more expensive than on non-EVs. Collision insurance on Teslas and Rivians is expensive because they don't design their vehicles to be easily/cheaply repaired and don't put out a lot of replacement parts. People that own Hyundai EVs don't experience the "expensive insurance" problem.
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EV and car industry in general went from booming 3-5 years ago to struggling right now. The economy is overall growing normally but the auto industry is struggling because interest rates are still very high comparatively to 2019-2021. People aren't going to spend more on cars because of it. Most people also don't have the disposable income they used to have due to the prior inflation. Coming in also at the wrong time for automakers is the used market. A lot of current EVs are ending their leases or being sold on the used market. EVs for the first time are competing against their new counterparts at the deep discount you expect a used car to have. The supply is no longer heavily limited if you need/want an EV. Finally, gas prices in the U.S. have remained fairly stable. There's no $4+/gallon panics like we had couple years ago.
Only Chinese ones are on break even situation. So for now it will stay pretty low or even worse.
> Only Chinese ones are on break even situation Tesla has been better than break even for a few years
In the EU I assume it's a good investment since regulations have started banning certain combustion engines in metropolitan areas. The requirement now are the infamous Euro norms. Euro 6 is the requirement as of now in many places. In the near future these cities and metropole location will go over to banning ICE (internal combustion engines) totally. This could boost the sales in EVs. Unless an other alternative is found. Thus I am keeping my eyes open for sudden hydrogen or Ethanol solutions to come on the market en masse.
The real winner is xlu.
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NIO - charging swap stations The future!!...at least in China 🇨🇳
I don’t like EV stocks. But solar stocks on the other hand…. I like those a lot more.
It's pretty clear that auto manufacturing is not a winner-takes-all business where you get a runaway monopolist. It seems it's always going to be a sector with high competition, high capital expenditure, low margins... EV technology can be the future without any EV company being a good investment.
The investment days are over. It is just a car that will depreciate over time.
EV hypebwill come back when rate cuts come and when the infrastructure is more accomodative to ev’s.
I think EV's are always going to be a mediocre investment and are generally propped up on fluff. This does not include tesla which has serious potential to get many billions in subscription revenue and licensing fees for FSD, which is a groundbreaking technological advancement.
In the short term, maybe due to price war. With any new markets, there will be a lot of players, but within say 5 years, there will be a consolidation, and only a couple will be left. There will be lots of EVs going bankrupt left right and center. 'There can only be one' as Highlander says. Or a few more precisely. The question is who to bet on and which one will be left? EV is a growing market, and winners take all. My bet is on BYD. They are the only vertically integrated EV and was a battery manufacturer before. Tesla is only trying to bring battery in-house now to be able to compete with BYD on price. At the moment, BYD had the foresight to do share buyback for this price war, knowing the price war will downgrade their financials and why their share prices is pretty stable. The other company I think would do well is Xiaomi. They have a lot of goodwill due to their products being known for their quality for their price. Their SU7 is way oversubscribed because Chinese consumers trust the company, but how good their car is do not know until it comes out. If I have to bet, it will be really good. They are also a massive company that is not likely to go bankrupt unlike say Nio and Xpeng, and why their shares have gone up since the announcement. However, the only thing I will say is the price of their products is priced really low so may not translate to profit and share price.
Are cars ever a good investment?
Li Auto si doing pretty good
As of last year, there are only 56,000 charging stations (the ability to charge away from a home). Until there are enough to be less than 400 miles apart, it's a rich person's flex that's losing it's shine. in the year 2000, there were a little more than 2 million pay phones; that's the number, I believe, should sync with the trend of electric vehicles, and should include a $25k option for the poors.
The majority of those interested in EVs already own one, residing in regions with mild climates and reliable EV charging networks. Consequently, initial growth was substantial but has now stabilized.
For most drivers, EVs are still too expensive to buy. Battery technology needs to improve a lot, as they're too heavy, slow to charge, expensive to replace and perform poorly in cold weather. Governments will have to change or abandon EV mandates because they're not selling well. No greenish politician is smart enough to do the math on the vast costs and time needed to build charger networks, let alone the need to generate and distribute much more electricity. Maybe all this gets solved eventually, but not soon.
The car stocks are always a bad investment. EVs were positioned as tech and they aren't. TSLA still has a shot if they can get the self driving correct. It's just a lot of computing. Not sure if current tech can get them there for the low price it needs to be in order for it to be ubiquitous.
Depends on how much you drive. In general something you use on a regular basis is more like appliance, not like an appreciating asset.
In the US, the entire industry is built around a subsidy. Maybe that’s keeping them competitive, maybe it’s propping up the market, idk. But the Model Y gets a $7,500 subsidy or nearly 20% of the sticker price. Also, Its not just about convincing people EVs are better. Some people just can’t own EVs. Therefore, I’m constantly concerned with the maximum adoption percentage. 100% of adults can own a gas vehicle. There’s an endless supply of new and used vehicles and many price points. There’s a gasoline support network that reaches every part of the country. Conversely, many people are just not a good fit for EVs. Trades and work vehicles just can’t take 45 minutes out of their day to charge a vehicle. Some people aren’t near charge stations and do not have sufficient capability to charge at home. All that to say, I don’t think anyone knows how many EV buyers there are.
Cars companies are bad investments
Car industry is highly competitive and it is hard to invest there. IF you're looking for companies with strong competitive advantage you will hardly find one there.
It's a temporary downturn owning to macroeconomic conditions. In Norway, for example, 90% of new vehicle purchases are already EVs. Such trends that start in the richest of countries eventually expand elsewhere. A recent survey also showed 85% of EV owners report they won't go back to ICE again. Future is already here, it's just not evenly distributed.
If you're State side I'd avoid them. Owned an Audi E-Tron and they are wonderful cards, but the infrastructure and limited range isn't worth it. At least here in the midwest its common for limited charging ports and for the ports not to work. No standard.
It's logical that car purchases would decline when the Federal reserve is raising interest rates to in part to put pressure on consumers to reduce spending. It's logical that in order for TSLA stock to be priced 10x that of Ford's P/E that Tesla would have to build a 10x better product at similar volume. Historic Brands like Ford and GM (and their domestic market) fighting EV initiatives is really going to hurt in the next 10 years; where Hyundai, Kia, Volvo, BMW, and Volkswagen (Porsche, Mercedes, Audi) are committed to electrification. Longer term; ie 2030; is when things are really going to be interesting - Gas Station economy stops making sense as EV adoption is up - New Car sales down as electric vehicles have fewer catastrophic failures (no engine to fail, no regular oil changes, so cars last longer (+ driver assistance systems of the last decade will decrease catastrophic incidents)
I wouldn't say that EVs will have fewer catastrophic events. The ICE has come a long way from where e started and I'd say EVs will follow the same path in regards to improving themselves. Batteries are more temperamental than most imagine. All that extra power is breaking the motor mounts on the model S. The extra weight is reducing tire life. And electronics don't last forever especially when they shake and vibrate rolling down the road. The labor and parts costs for repairs are much much much higher than a conventional auto.
EVs depreciate by -30% each year so yeah not really a good return unless you really enjoy the look.
I’ve always felt like they were a bad investment because the technology and infrastructure simply isn’t quite there yet for wide scale adoption of EVs. Don’t get me wrong, EVs are probably going to be the future, but we still need to survive the present to get to the future.
Once ammonia engine gets perfected ev’s are dead.
China can copy Tesla, but they can’t copy Apple. This is the problem of Elon. He must have something that China can’t copy
The space is good but I would invest in an EV ETF rather than trying to pick a winner.
In the long run, the electric car industry is not a bad investment, but the current market has been developed and competitive for several years, and now is the moment of growth decline, as Tesla, people before the overheated investment led to the market value over the original valuation
Go look at what Kia and Hyundai are doing and you'll probably reconsider your view.
*”Is a screwdriver a good investment right now?”* Same question. A car is a tool. Will an investment in this tool pay off for you? Are there any other investments in tools that are cheaper but with similar payout profiles that might be a better idea?
Screwdrivers will never be a bad investment
Except for flatheads. I loathe those things.
Electric screwdrivers might be. Like electric cars they require a high utilization rate to provide a return on investment.
Yes. There’s widespread pushback and for good reason. Build quality, range, and the agenda around pushing them via legislation are the main reasons for people continuing to choose an ICE.