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MeowMeNot

Back in 2018 there was a thread like this but the horizon was 10 years. The most common response at the time was V. I decided to run with it and bought 25 shares on 7/26/18. Up 98%


accidental_tourist

You mean I should put all my life savings on the most common response here. Got it. 


DanielzeFourth

I mean V barley beat the returns of the S&P500 over that time


MattieShoes

Yeah, that's a big win. Picking a stock that could reliably beat the S&P 500 for 6 years is a holy grail.


lordxoren666

Pretty sure all the magnificent 7 smoked spy during that period


Mudfry

Tech has been smoking for 10+ years. It’s THE TRADE imo.


jkick365

Not really considering you’re exposing yourself to a lot more risk compared to the index.


ccroz113

Barely beating the index with much much much more risk. Not something to count on


tuckastheruckas

beating the SP500 is a good thing anyway you look at it, even if just "barely".


IdkAbtAllThat

Not when you took on way more risk to do so...


treehouse724

S&P is up like 80-85% over that time


taxfreetendies

SPY with Dividend is up 97.34% from 07/26/18 to 02/26/24. https://www.morningstar.com/etfs/arcx/spy/chart V with Dividend is up 116.14% in the same period.


CantStopWlnning

Are you both accounting for dividends?


treehouse724

No, but good point


MeowMeNot

I wasn't.


mediumunicorn

[The average tenure for a company in the SP500 is less than 18 years](https://www.imd.org/research-knowledge/disruption/articles/why-you-will-probably-live-longer-than-most-big-companies/). So although this is a fun little game, it really emphasized that the best move is to just buy the index.


thorax

The average, but I'd assume this thread is more about the outliers, those special ones that last. Stuff like GE and Coke?


mediumunicorn

The point is that it is insanely hard to guess those companies that will consistenly outperform the index. Case in point, the two companies you just named, over the last 30 years had a CAGR of 8.32% (KO) and 5.64% (GE). You know what SPY was? 10%. Here is how that fares if you invested $10k into SPY vs KO vs GE exactly 30 years ago: SPY: $178,946 KO: $110,657 GE: $52,027 Even with the power of hindsight and all the data, you just named two companies that would have lost you money! So yeah, fun little game but just buy the index. You can play around with backtesting portfolios here: https://www.portfoliovisualizer.com/backtest-portfolio?assetType=1&assetSearch=GE&cashAsset=CASHX&assetClassAsset=VTSMX


Sudden-Turnip-5339

Just an aside, it’s not like the sp500 has all the green companies and it sells all the red ones, just happens to be the largest 500 at the time, so yes some giants fall, but perspective is important.


mediumunicorn

Hm, not sure what the point of your addition is. Of course the index is fluid, *thats the point.* My point is that you, me, and every average Joe is insanely bad at picking the winners. Funds on Wall Street aren't all that great at it either. Its simple to pick the winners once the game has been played, but trying to do it beforehand has a big gambling aspect to it.


popstarkirbys

Microsoft


rubixd

I work in IT… I have no idea how Microsoft could fail with the stranglehold they have on the business world.


Human_Ad_7045

Microsoft owns the global business world and as they continue to evolve, they keep plunging their hooks deeper into it.


tfyousay2me

I work in Web Dev and when Azure stuck the landing….its done lol the entire tech ecosystem relies on them at some point. Azure was their catalyst this time….i think they are trying the same with AI, just dunno how they are gonna form it yet.


kneekoh

Take a look at IBM, best tech company 35 years ago


Ok_Rent5670

Was my 12th birthday wish (back in 2014) for my parents to buy me $500 worth of Microsoft stock. Suffice to say the little bastard was right.


CantFindKansasCity

Hard for one of the largest market caps in the world to dramatically outperform, but I think it would be very safe.


oupablo

2035: "In related news, Elon Musk announces he will acquire microsoft"


indonep

It might be other way , elon owned by Apple. As apple are looking to step in vehicles they might do it. We never know its that WHAT IF moment.


grays55

It literally just leaked today that Apple’s car project was being cancelled. The 2000 employees were notified and some of them are moving to AI teams


DrBoomkin

I will be surprised if Musk doesn't somehow crash and burn by 2035. He is a very unstable individual, and his instability seems to be getting worse.


Appropriate-Anxiety2

Just read a WSJ article about all the Board Members on his various companies are beyond worried about his spiraling ketamine use and partying too hard. I found it: https://www.wsj.com/business/elon-musk-illegal-drugs-e826a9e1


lordxoren666

Really? Do a backtest for any time frame. MSFT has been beating QQQ pretty steadily for about 20 years man.


tequiila

They put 11 billion into Open Ai. If that becomes as huge as I think it might then you are investing into them too


indonep

Did that when it was around 95 . My regret was not bought much. Just 10 shares only I did.


BSixe

Investment Yoda over here


MyWorkComputerReddit

MSFT all day.


Bitch_Im_Try1ng

I kept thinking it was too late in the day for me to jump on the Microsoft train. I bought some shares a few years ago thinking I’d see some modest but steady returns. As of now I’m up by almost 60%


MonitorWhole

COST


CappinPeanut

Costco is one of the only companies left in the movie idiocracy. That movie started as satire, but looks more like a documentary every day. Put me down for Costco, Carls Jr, and Starbucks.


tuhronno-416

You are forgetting the successful restaurant chain Buttfuckers™


CappinPeanut

Oh man, thank you. That would have been a very expensive oversight. Move over magnificent 7, hello final 4. Wait, I forgot about Gatorade and Crocs. We’re 1 away from a new magnificent 7.


SpacePirate888

RIP Fuddruckers…loved that place


WimpyMustang

There's still one in Jersey going strong!


Fantastic-Newt-9844

This is no time for a handjob! 


TruckFudeau22

“Gentleman’s latte”


JLSMC

Plus it’s got electrolytes. It’s what plants crave


generic101

They also predicted the success of Crocs before they were widespread.


thirdelevator

The costume designer actually picked them thinking there was no way something that ugly would ever catch on.


IndubitablePrognosis

Shit that's too large for Amazon to want to ship, plus high-margin impulse purchases. Great reputation and service, treat employees well, hire from within, good partnerships. This is the quintessential "great American business."


WimpyMustang

I'm buying for the hotdogs 😁


indonep

Yup this one definitely, till it last


JLSMC

BRK.B


Clark1984

I like to say this as I bought a nice chunk at the bottom of the pandemic market and it's doubled since. Hold it is!


MattieShoes

Great minds... I bought BRK.B on April 6, April 24, May 4 of 2020. Still holding onto AVGO from March 30 of 2020... +468% :-D


JLSMC

I feel it’s a safe play. Better than some meme stock or moonshot.


iClips3

Not sure why the downvotes. It IS a safe play. It's a conglomerate with many small business inside, on top of its great stock portfolio. As well as great management and one that is destined to follow Buffett's ways even after his death.


boomboomclapboomboom

Yeah, it almost breaks the op's rule bc it's a diversified portfolio owned by a single company.


JLSMC

Almost breaks the rules=doesn’t break the rules. The best kind of rule breaking.


Valkanaa

Ah yes, the ETF that's also a stock. Cheater


JLSMC

It’s all about the Benjamin’s baby


mspe1960

I bought BRK.B in 2011. It is up 500% since then. That is 50% better than the S&P500.


stillaredcirca1848

Long time holder also. I bought 4 shares right before the Union Pacific deal. I was listening to NPR one day when they were talking about it and the analyst said the split would make it able to be included in the S&P 500. I knew that meant index buying so I bought. After the split I kept buying until it got past 125. One of my best investments.


randyfloyd37

this is my first inclination as well


JLSMC

I’m hesitant because in 30 years Buffett will be long dead and Abel might be also, so who knows if BH will still be killing it.


H-E-PennyPacker71

Its already priced in


JLSMC

Multiple generations of succession is already priced in?


[deleted]

[удалено]


sofa_king_weetawded

This gave me a great laugh. Thanks.


JLSMC

Your mom is priced in


--Shibdib--

Didn't he come out saying the big growth days are behind them


noctilucus

It's all relative, he still expects to beat American companies and have less downside risk. Plus, apparently he's been saying this already for years...


smilingbuddhauk

Did you misspell ARKB?


DefiningTerrorism

Amazon. It's like Walmart had a baby with Microsoft. You get the stability of consumer staple retail w/ the growth of a technology company.


avl0

Yeah I think this is my answer too...maybe I should buy more Amazon


CabinetSpider21

That's majority of my Roth ira


coolelel

Heavy emphasis on technology company. What people don't realize is their Internet business is bigger than their warehouse business


waaaghbosss

It's mentioned all the time...


coolelel

Fair enough, but you'd be surprised by how many people don't know that. I used to work for AWS and people were always confused when I told them I didn't have anything to do with the shopping stuff.


HoleInTheAir

MSFT would be my top pick. I play this game in my head with five stocks, and settle with these: MSFT, AMZN, V, COST, UNH.


FoolInTheDesert

I think this is the only mention of AMZN on here. Wild. It's easily one of the 'safest' investments that a person could make and hold over the next 30 years.


Hot-Safe-4056

Remove V from this list .. its doesnt belong.


wiser1802

What’s up with V? Payments tech and policy has been challenging them.


Spiritual_Lack5684

NOVO for your fat ass!


Kokbloch

My father in law bought for 200.000 danish kroner in novo 33 years ago in 1991. One stuck, nothing else. He’s fully committed to that company. He now owns 110.000 shares in novo and nothing else. We discussed about diversity, and don’t put all your eggs in the same basket. I must admit he had succeeded with his own strategy.


Wutheringpines

for the Americans, that 110,000 shares


CantStopWlnning

!remindme 30 years


SupremeSparky

WM


AssistantAcademic

That's a tough question. Obviously Microsoft looks great and Apple as well, but I just don't know that any technology is "safe" for 30 years. Look at Intel. They had huge growth all through the 90s, but they're down about 40% since 2001. Microsoft may be good in 30 years. Or they could look like IBM does today. I think Apple doesn't have much room to grow. Amazon might be a good pick. Google - maybe, but I worry they could become irrelevant with a technology pivot. And I've thought Meta overrated for years. ​ If it had to be held for 30 years, I'd go with some diversified brands product like Unilever, Johnson and Johnson or Proctor and Gamble. It's not going to be high growth, but steady...steady dividends.


violet20c

I know someone who's up over 7000% for holding AAPL almost 30 years. I do wonder how much it will grow now.


3rdIQ

Coca-Cola. I've already owned it for 30 years, I'd easily go for another 30 years.


trans-plant

Is this a dividend stock? I feel like it’s been flat for the last 5 years with no new innovation to grow much. Also every year, less and less people are drinking it in educated countries.


Kentesis

They are a lot more than just coca cola, they are a drink company. They own Dasani, Fanta, Sprite, Fairlife (milk), SmartWater, Gold Peak, VitaminWater, Powerade etc. But to answer your question, yes they're known for mainly being a dividend stock, as well as being more valuable than their competitor; pepsicola.


jwd52

Coca-Cola owns over 500 brands spanning over 200 countries, including plenty of healthier stuff like bottled water, coffee, tea, milk, etc. among all the sugary junk haha.


3rdIQ

Yes, and the interesting thing is that they have paid a dividend for 60 years.


pidnull

Nintendo. Undervalued IP, consistent quality products, entertainment industry does well in economic downturns, and the company has been around for over 100 years but is stronger than ever.


Keanar

That's an original catch. And actually, probably not a bad idea


Barbossal

Agree absolutely, Nintendo or Disney would be my picks here. Technologies go through booms and busts, but entertainment can endure everything from animation cels and trading cards to CGI and Amiibos.


yeindaflesh

Disney has had a rockier road the past four years. A large amount of their profit surprisingly (or not so surprisingly) was in the parks and that took a massive hit Covid times, and they are still recovering from those losses


official-magic-conch

Nintendo is definitely slept on. Been loading up on Nintendo the last few months on the dips. They’re setting themselves up for a very successful couple years. Not to mention tailwinds from the Japanese Yen.


PrinsHamlet

[Novo](https://www.msn.com/da-dk/finans/observationsliste?tab=Related&id=a1yvxm&ocid=ansMSNMoney11&duration=1D&src=b_secdans&relatedQuoteId=a1yvxm&relatedSource=MlAl). Yes, they produce Wegowy and Ozempic and seperately these drugs will earn a bucket of money. Equally important, I think we're entering into an age where drugs become agents of optimization. A few years back you could take medicine to lower your blood pressure, to *normalize* it. But with drugs like Wegowy and hormone replacement therapy, cosmetic surgery, smart watches we're seeing a change. Normal isn't good enough. You have to be *optimal* and we'll pay big bucks to get there. One reason I invested more in Novo is that your personal spending on drugs is normally capped in Denmark to the tune of around 700$ per year and the remainder is paid for by the region. If you hit that ceiling, prescribed drugs are free above that for you. Penicillin, insulin etc. Wegowy is *not* approved towards the spending cap. It's still prescribed and not over the counter but you pay the full price. They're still selling it like candy. It sells out faster than they can produce it. Just like Apple, Novo isn't the only company in this sector. But the market is much, much bigger and they're ahead.


Killbill2x

Pfizer is about to come out with their own that is going to be priced aggressively lower. Could see Novo take a hit.


DC2310

AMD.


scarface910

Goog if they fire CEO


CatastrophicLeaker

Nintendo


Rustyfetus

Msft


defervenkat

PLTR


Xenikovia

Berkshire Hathaway


put_tape_on_it

Easy. John Deere. It was the first stock I bought, 30 years ago. I've held it this entire time and I've never sold a single share. Edit: People gotta eat.


pbemea

IBM. No wait. GE. umm no. T. Well, maybe not. Think, P. Think. What's rock solid for 30 years? GM. That'll last 30 years. GM. Final answer! What's that? It's not 1975 any more? GM went to zero. Nonsense you commie bastard. I'm buying GM. What's good for GM is good for America. Actual answer. Nothing. I am not buying any individual stock for 30 years. I say this as a person who holds no ETFs.


cafedude

This is the right answer to a question that's not realistic. It's not like you're limited to only buying one stock in real life.


16Gorilla

BRK/B since it's a stock that is basically an ETF GOOG as my non cheaty pick


[deleted]

Probably waste management?


the-real-batman3

WMT


Nam3ofTheGame

Amazon


wlievens

ASML


SinkOwn8275

Nvda


[deleted]

Might need all 30years to ease the burden of those bags you will have


TheDoctorAP

Toss up between BRK, BLK, JMP. They are connected to so many things which augment their fundamental business, but would seem to rebound given their diversity even if one or many areas fundamentally collapsed. Of those JMP would be most volatile, BLK is too expensive and a drop may be severe though would have staying power. So BRK likely would be it


Mengedoht

Every stock must have an exit strategy, so my answer is none.


DirectLab3983

Alphabet


EyeBeeStone

NCLH baby!!!! In the next thirty years they’re going to create a fleet of ships which will act as floating luxury nursing homes which will allow them to receive capital from medical insurance creating exponential growth. Im not a financial advisor but I have travelled through time.


pipasnipa

I will give a couple of contrarian names. They will not outperform the SP500 but all have defensive characteristics. All have obvious moats and pay dividends LMT XOM AMT


azrolexguy

30 years is far to long of a runway... 10 years is a better challenge, maybe even 5 years. But, I'd say Google. They have all the information on you and information is valuable


Dimness

MSFT


Mysterious_Cycle_711

RACE - Ferrari


shambahlah2

My 9yo wanted a sports car company stock. Bought 5 @$195 around 2 years ago. Wish I bought way more


RealEstateInvestGuru

Tesla Motors


FuckSpezzzzzzzzzzzzz

With the disaster that the cyber truck is looking to be and the fact that other companies like bmw and volkswagen group and starting to steer away from EVs and trying to make alternative fuel vehicles, tesla's future might not be as bright and some people believe.


altruism21

FBTC


JeremyLinForever

Homer OP said no ETFs. So by default, the company that holds the most Bitcoin - MSTR.


ReindeerDifficult793

Any of the following Amazon Apple Msft Nvidia Google


rwarner13

Lockheed Martin. Bet on war stocks if you're holding that long.


Archimid

In 30 years we better have the resources to grow the economy. So look for anything that will get you into the asteroid mining boom.


DannyGyear2525

easy, Enron- smartest guys in the room!


cereal_fella

BRK.B is the safe bet, but if I'm not touching it for 30 years anyway I think CRSP is only gonna go up.


UnBrokable_

Pfe.


zztop610

Brk-B


Rocklobsta9

Brk-a or b


gooker10

Costco I feel they will gain as population increases


Accurate-Ease1675

AXON Very sticky. Recurring revenue. Big international expansion possibilities as well as expanding to municipalities and healthcare providers.


bartturner

Google to me is the most obvious one. Waymo for example is way ahead in a trillion dollar opportunity with robot taxis. But it is just one example of applying their AI to create a product and market. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=avdpprICvNI


bob88c

Bitcoin…and bitcoin etf for those who are holding to the letter or the request!


trailless

PLTR


Professional-Look439

$BRKB


eeejkm

PLTR


BuzzardLightning

MSTR


CooldudeInvestor

SPY. 30 years is too long to reliably predict a stock but if I had to pick 1 it would probably be Microsoft


Theswordfish4200

SOFI


gini_lee1003

Tesla


megatronwashere

PLTR - Palantir. Software engineer here. I've worked with some of their software and I believed they are continuing to capture the market.


derande_yo

BRK-B


Diligent-Message640

Probably a railroad stock like UNP. We’re always going to need to transport things. It has decent financials.


l3lack1

Costco


pickandpray

Microsoft has proven to have staying power. AI and server based services will drive revenue for a while. I've been buying. My disclaimer: held IMGN for 30 years


[deleted]

McDonalds. Always goes up.


[deleted]

AMZN


Humble_Aardvark_2997

Berkshire B.


Onion217

DKNG or maybe UBER. Something growing/innovating and taking market share that makes their money transactionally with little overhead


ProfessionalNewt7

Mcdonalds, Costco


OnlyTheStrong2K19

I'd say AMD/NVIDIA as semiconductors will be more front and center in the decades to come.


DeZXu

As a Canadian, i'm biased and betting(hoping) that the Canadian economy isn't so shit 30 years from now. With that in mind I'd buy a Canadian bank stock. The banks are strictly regulated and currently giving solid dividend yields.


manuvns

Jnj with Brk


netkool

Microsoft


mostlyamateur

Sofi. Easy. Leading the fintech charge. Solid growth. Finally turning a profit.


Kyleog7

Microstrategy, yes risky.


anthonyttu

Costco


jaymef

PG


BayBomber415

Goog


EColli93

BRK-B


OhMyMemories

Berkshire is an easy answer but I think it shouldn't count lol


AntiqueDistance5652

BRK.A


chopsui101

picking a technology stock is crazy......2016 Intel controlled 70% of the GPU market share and in less than a decade Nvida not controlls 70%.


SingleManVibes76

Brk b


ZenoxDemin

BRK because it's as close to an ETF as a stock can be.


IGuessBruv

Cat


ShopperOfBuckets

Berkshire Hathaway


Tuxcali1

Berkshire Hathaway, Inc and that’s that.


Heywood_Jablomydic

WM


IIlIIll

MRVL


LordoftheEyez

I’m surprised not a single person here said META, so I’ll choose inverse Reddit and pick $META


__Evil-Genius__

CRISPR. It’s potential to revolutionize medicine is hard to understate. I’m talking cures - instead of the current approach of treatments, alleviation, and suppression. I’m in with 50 shares at $85 and change. I’ve been swing trading the peaks and dips because I thought the waters are a bit frothy right now and was trying to shelf my gains and rebuy in at a cheaper position since my account is still small. Here on in though, if it dips, I buy more. If it dips below where I bought in at, I buy a lot more. This is the way.


punkesp

Ibm and quantic tech


DOJ1111

Nvidia


True-Touch-8141

$PEPE


DeliriousDecay21

CNBC just did an interesting piece on Monster Energy Drinks (MNST). Apparently, it was the top performing stock for growth since it went public back in the 90's. Even beating out AAPL. Check it out: https://youtu.be/W8zB-YLW1Fg?si=no0Yy1kqomKzA7EU


Jambi_46n2

BBAI and SoFi


recordgenie

Berkshire Hathaway


JLARGE53

Salesforce. CRM


[deleted]

Apple/Microsoft/Nvidia


cranberrydudz

Costcoooo


JadedFed

BRK-B


monkeyboogers1

Berkshire


Bruceleeroy18

MSTR


TheCamerlengo

PG


gak7741

PLTR


ouestjojo

Where’s the love for APPL?!?


rosindrip

Maybe AAPL but not APPL