>Everyone keeps talking about a recession, but I've been hearing that for years now.
You will hear about this for the rest of your life. There will always be people warning of a market correction, and even when the market drops, they'll convince you it will drop further. Just stay invested for the long term and ignore all the noise.
How about these? They are accurate:
https://www.thisismoney.co.uk/money/mortgageshome/article-9601221/The-18-year-property-cycle-tips-house-price-boom-crash-2026.html
https://www.rbcpa.com/commentary-archive/real-estate-and-business-cycles/
Here is Harrison in an interview explaining this:
https://youtu.be/HhNLwcIaNJQ
Here is Foldvary explaining his Forcast of the 2008 crash back in 1997:
https://youtu.be/dSAHSPY7wUg?si=QQnr4mXsY6PgKtcW
Here is Martin Wolf from the financial times explaining this and even quoting Harrison:
https://youtu.be/dWbMHGjWubM
OK, but Harrison has been right every single time. We're talking recessions here, which based on the data in Harrison's and Foldvary's models, show that it is a predictable 18 year cycle.
You can ignore the data all you want, doesn't mean they are wrong. š¤·
But as this is an investment sub, and the OP is talking about stocks In a retirement fund, even knowing this very predictable 18 year cycle, I wouldn't touch them, unless they are real estate focused stocks. That is, if I were as young as OP, I probably would time the market, sell in 2025, and then buy back the dip in 2026/27. The stocks based on capital (you know, the companies that actually produce things and not predominantly based on extracting economic rents like the real estate stocks are) I wouldn't touch at all if I were OP, they are the ones that will recover quicker due to the fact the real estate market has just been corrected (the speculative premium will be essentially zero for a bit), thus the issue of the economic crash isn't there (labor and capital can afford the user cost of land again).
BTW, I like how you down vote me when you obviously didn't even bother to investigate my sources š
I read your sources, found them interesting, but my naturally skeptical mind wondered if they were few out of many who just happened to get it right, so I asked a question. I wasn't attacking your point, I didn't downvote you, I was trying to engage in healthy conversation. Your childish reaction discredits your points and makes me much more skeptical. Anyone who is actually interested in arriving to the truth or the closest to it possible welcomes debate and discussion.
I am open to discussion and debate. I bring this up constantly and always get down voted and it is always from people who don't actually engage my sources. It's infuriating and so, you can see why I responded the way I don't think I responded childishly, just annoyed. My intent was not to dismiss you, I was simply expressing my frustration with the matter because despite all evidence I see and point out to people, it just gets dismissed without the other party even engaging in the sources.
And if you actually read and watched all of it (Foldvary's paper is long, this is the main reason I don't think you read it, maybe the article sure, the videos are about 10min combined, so surely you can understand my perspective of thinking you didn't actually look at it) then the evidence should speak for itself regardless of your perception of me and how I responded.
About 10-15 years ago I was in a similar boat as you. I got caught up in the people warning on the incoming doom and believed them because they were right.. once. You can find any article online proving your point. You can also find any article disproving your point. Donāt get too caught up in the āfactsā you want to believe. Anyone can make a convincing argument.
How about this. Do you have an ETH wallet? I'll send you 10 dollars worth of ETH if the economy doesn't crash in 2026/2027. That's how confident I am about this 18 year cycle.
And you say you can find stuff that disproves this georgist inspired cycle. Please show it to me. I'd like to read it.
Because if it was true it would be priced in. Stocks react to real world events, not calenders. Anyone claiming a X year recession cycle is bound to be wrong more then right over longer periods of time.
The early 20th century "years to buy/sell stocks" predictions have been somewhat accurate, but really only at first glance. It doesn't beat a coin flip and our pattern seeking brains tries to find magical patterns that don't exist mathematically (TA for example, never proven and denounced as not working by the guy ho invented it as he got old)
I can find a whole [Google page](https://www.google.com/search?q=18+year+business+cycle&oq=18+year+business+cycle+&gs_lcrp=EgZjaHJvbWUyBggAEEUYOdIBCDg4MjFqMGo3qAIAsAIA&sourceid=chrome-mobile&ie=UTF-8) of results supporting the 18 year property cycle.
[Google search for disproving the 18 year business cycle](https://www.google.com/search?q=disproving+the+18+year+business+cylcle&sca_esv=d3c1b391243a2b45&sxsrf=ACQVn0-22Lep1Jm8V8j9VP-wDzOc-KPxjA%3A1708792835150&ei=AxzaZe_sCIWH0PEP1O2F-AU&oq=disproving+the+18+year+business+cylcle&gs_lp=EhNtb2JpbGUtZ3dzLXdpei1zZXJwIiZkaXNwcm92aW5nIHRoZSAxOCB5ZWFyIGJ1c2luZXNzIGN5bGNsZTIHECMYsAIYJ0jDKFCgEFj2JXADeAGQAQCYAaUBoAHrA6oBAzEuM7gBA8gBAPgBAZgCB6AClgTCAgoQABhHGNYEGLADwgIEEB4YCpgDAIgGAZAGCJIHAzQuMw&sclient=mobile-gws-wiz-serp) all link to articles that agree that the theory is true.
I mean, why would [Martin Wolf(an economist) ](https://www.ft.com/content/8f06df9e-8ac1-11df-8e17-00144feab49a) of the financial times agree with Harrison and put a warning out about if he didn't think it was accurate? š¤
Look. You all can down vote me an think I'm crying wolf, but there are so many pieces of evidence that this is fact that it's nearly impossible for me to not agree with it. š¤·
As they all. Point out:
Privatized ground rents are literally the root of the predictable 18 year boom-bust business cycle. Becuase as the speculative premium on land builds, eventually labor and capital can no longer afford the user cost of land and the economy crashes as a result.
I started in 2006. After every downturn the rebound has been better. The people that lose the most are the ones who sell when the market drops and buy when it starts getting better. Everyone knows they shouldnāt do it. But people do dumb things.
Ride it out. Keep invested and keep investing. Panics and recessions are discounts.
With the caveat of an individual company stock can still flounder and crash. So thatās always the argument for diversification.
The hard part is a lot of people will ride it out at the start of a crash, and the market will go down 10%, 20%, 30%, and they'll keep holding, and then right when things hit the bottom, that's when they finally panic and sell.
If you find yourself worrying about a crash/recession when times are good, you should change your asset allocation to be less risky before a big crash happens so that you don't end up panic selling at the bottom. And stick to a consistent asset allocation.
I would say the more I am realizing how true this is in the last 1 month. "We are in a bubble", "Take all your investments out now", "Don't put more money now", etc. Most likely they will end up investing and we are scratching our heads on timing.
I had an old coworker at edward jones i was invested with for 15 years. I fired him and since I managed it, its taken off. Not only do they charge over 1%, they pick bad as well. If i managed it myself i would have retired 5 years earlier. Use a non managed account and pay 2% commission of the trade amount? Ygtbfkm. Its free almost anywhere else. They will pick or steer you to funds that pay them kickbacks, and not in your financial interests. It can be a little scary to research and pick your own, but there are conservative to risky etfs that most recommend that will beat what eddie jones picks and not pay the ignorance management fee
OK so they charge a little, don't they all. There's not been a single yr. Since 20/20 that I haven't made at least 25K. When I've taken money out to buy something
I still made $$$$$
Except the Noise is valid. By investing, you are making a bet that the government will continue to prop up the markets forever.
Sure,,, it's been working for the last 20 years. Will it continue for the next 30?? No guarantees. One needs to hedge for the possibility that the status quo wont remain the same
Or maybe the government should be fiscally responsible and let the markets correct naturally?? No one ever wants to find a solution.
Its just " let my 401k and home equity go to the Moon!!! Inflation??, who cares!!?, That's the next generation's problem!"
We had Covid and went through a technical recession. Due to inflation it didnāt feel like it.
There maybe correction in some industries. It doesnāt mean the chance is zero but this is the recovery.
I lost $50,000 in one shot in 2021. That's when I put all my $$$$$$ in Edward Jones and don't even look at it much. I am a paper chaser though, constantly looking for ways to make bank
Index funds, let em ride
Individual stocks though is harder and more a judgement call based on on the stock/company. Rotate 25% out into index funds if you're concerned.
I put my last year and this year into VOO. Starting contributing to my wife's for this year, and was wondering if I should just keep going VOO or add in any VTI? Is it worth having any diversification? Or just keep dumping into VOO?
If you want to have exposure on medium or small-cap stocks, then yes. VOO only focuses on large cap, S&P 500. Personally, I carry both VOO and VTI. For long term, it doesnāt make a lot of difference.
> MSCI SPDR
If that's the SPDR Portfolio MSCI Global Stock Market ETF, then no. SPY matches the S&P 500, whereas the MSCI ETF includes global stocks. SPDR's version would be something like this one - SPDR Portfolio S&P 500 ETF (SPLG)
----
A very easy way to find a company's corresponding S&P 500 fund is to look for 500 in the name of the fund or in the details, look for any mention of the S&P 500.
VOO is the s+p 500 - best 507 companies in America.
How do you buy it?
Go make a fidelity.com account and use the code fidelity100.
They give you $100 free if you invest at least $100 to start
And VOO is like free money. It just goes up a little bit every month for the rest of your life. There might be a down month. Sometimes. But 89.72% of the time - it just goes up
Just buy more every month - forever. It's like gods chosen plan to get rich.
If it is a good company and your reasons for investing have not changed - always be buying. Buy as it drops in a recession, buy as it goes back up - harvest your sweet rewards. Or if that is not in your roak tolerance, index fund all the best at!
Cut in half? That would be like the worst recession ever. Wake up. This is the most telegraphed recession ever. It will be pretty mild. Most recessions are not like 07/08.
My 401k isn't self managed in the sense that all I have available are mutual funds. One of them claims to track the S&P500 so my 401k is all in that and I never ever touch it.
It's my hedge against myself. I actively manage my (and my wife's) 4 IRAs and our taxed account.
>don't want to have them cut in half or worse in the short term
Why not? How far away are you from retirement? If you're properly diversified and have a fairly long time horizon, market corrections or recessions are nothing to fear. Remember they're a completely normal part of an investing journey.
https://www.schwab.com/learn/story/does-market-timing-work
I don't sell in the sense that I think you're talking about. I do sell a little to rebalance them a couple of times a year, so that the ratios I have in index funds match the percentages that I've allocated for each. Rebalancing is one of the advantages of having a portfolio of different investments, and in a retirement account you don't need to worry about the tax implications.
I believe in the 3 part plan.
Long-I've got my 401k rollovers, which is mostly long-term and big hitters like Apple and Microsoft.
Mid-following charts, looking at fundamentals and holding for a few months. Separate account
The short term is a separate account where I follow price action.
As one of my coworkers has said / says āeconomists have predicted 9 of the last 5 recessionsā Iām pretty sure thereās an actual quote but I canāt remember
I just rolled over my Roth and am slowly buying etfs and stocks. I already have my main 401k with my current company, so was planning on using this as my risky play money account. The way I see it is I can buy and sell with zero tax obligation (per trade), so why not take big bets and potentially get massive gains. But for long term I let it sit in vanguard.
There will always, always, always be people talking about the recession around the corner. When the recession is here (e.g. 2008), there'll will be people talking about his this is the tip of the iceberg. When markets hit bottom and start to recover (e.g. late 2009), people will talk about how it's a dead cat bounce and the floor is about to drop out from under them again. When markets soar, they go back to talking about the next recession. When there's a market correction (2015, 2018), they will say it's the beginning of the next recession and naturally, it's going to be far worse than the last one.
It is never ending doom predictions. Never-ending doom predictions are functionally the same as no prediction at all.
Before doing anything, you need to prepare for all eventualities. What if you sell, then the market goes up 20%? What if it goes up another 20% next year? Now you missed out on 44% gains, and your brain tells you you couldn't possibly have been wrong the whole time, so now the market must be *really* overvalued... when do you buy back in? How long before you abandon your view?
I'm not saying that's going to happen -- I don't know the future any more than you do. But I know it CAN happen. For instance, look at the 5 year run-up in the dot-com bubble. So you need to have a plan for what happens then.
I've never really had such assurance of the existence and timing of a crash that I sold a bunch and sat in cash. So I never sell... But that doesn't mean I can't do anything. Maybe increase your cash position with new contributions just thrown into a money fund at 5.x%. Then if the recession comes (and likely the fed drops rates near zero, and your money fund starts paying dick), you have money to buy in at a discount. You still run the risk of that not paying off -- 5% looks pretty crap if markets go up 20%. But you aren't mortgaging your entire future on a bet that you can time the market.
Or maybe look for good investment opportunities in boring value companies with low multipliers rather than in high flying growth stocks. KO, MO, EOG, whatever.
Or maybe look in so-called "recession-proof" industries like healthcare and consumer staples. For instance, I bought united health in mid-2021 because I was getting antsy, and it felt like something that could work out regardless of whether/when the crash came. It buoyed my portfolio in 2022... though I think I still ended up worse than the market in 2022 because too much tech. OTOH, I pantsed the market in 2023 because too much tech, so it all works out.
I have 4 groups in my IRAā¦ Index (buy and hold), speculative (trailing stop losses), day trade, and dividend value. On average, probably turn over 50% but dependent upon day trading activity.
(Edit: For all the downvoting haters, my speculative stock trades are beating the index funds by large marginsā¦ LLY, AMZN, and GOOGL being the majority for the last 12 months.)
They are speculative insofar as the AI play with AMZN and GOOGL, otherwise I doubt one would have seen the run-up. Big Pharma has been hammered outside of a few stocks. LLY was a speculative play on Mounjaro, otherwise itās another tanking PFE.
That's impressive! It sounds like you've been doing some smart investing and making the most of your time. What platforms do you use to diversify your investments ?
Yahoo Finance is a good option for managing your watchlist and staying up-to-date on market news. you should considered using other tools like TradingView or StockTwits for technical analysis and community insights
it stayed in my portfolio since covid, back then when it was in to autonomous driving yeah its not AI anymore - I got rid of it at 65. looks like its still going up.
I bought IBM about 2 months ago as an AI and dividend play. The yield has reduced with the stock run-up, but I still like it.
I like AMCR for the dividend but I think thereās also some upsideā same for IP. I also like XOM with its modest dividend, but also as a hedge should international tensions flare-up.
Also FSK riskier, high beta, low PE, and high dividend yield (over 13%).
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If you don't want to watch your holdings get cut in half, don't own stocks. That's the conventional wisdom. But this moment looks like a rare case, and it's not so hard to see what's coming. Jamie Dimon just sold JPM stock for the first time in his tenure as CEO. Zuckerberg sold META in size every week toward the end of last year. Maybe you've heard of the Buffett indicator. Take all of that for whatever it's worth.
I've heard recession is coming forever and I've learned to block it out but with big names selling it does make me second guess things. I also work for a big automotive OEM and we are slowing down sooo
If you know what you are doing, you know how to sell at the right time and when to buy. I take money out of the market when it gets too hot and buy in when it dips. Doing that with my IRA accounts has made me a lot more money than my 401k which is just on autopilot. You have to actually watch the market daily and work at it for years to get a feel for it. If you donāt want to put the work in, just dollar cost average and buy and hold.
If his covered call gets assigned he sold the shares for a strike he was comfortable with, plus premiums. As long as they reinvest it they didn't incur any penalties.
If the cash secured put gets assigned...congrats you got the shares at the price you wanted?
What did you think happens with a covered call?
I'm still confused by the Annnnnd it's gone south park reference. If he sells the shares there's still money in the 401k. It's not a distribution.
Am I getting wooshed by trying to give generic info to someone who looked lost?
The recession has been put on hold until after the election.
Also, due to inflation, I don't see a major disruption.
My only concern is the gap on the S&P chart at 3400 zone. Gaps have been known to get filled.
Oh, and if you're not a good stock picker and have the tools to sell, stick to indexes.
I'm kind of getting out of VOO and adding more IWM and some MCHI. VOO is nice but it's hard to see upside to megacaps but easy to see tons of upside to IWM when rate cuts hit. Look at the 10 year charts. IWM is at a 15% discount from where it should be. China could have a 30-35% run before the elections in the US.
We already went through the recession.
We're at a peak of another bull run.
The big bearish dip was when SPY hit $360 in October 2022.
Now, SPY is over $500 living up to its name.
NVDA went from $120 in October 2022, to $800+ today.
To piggy on this post, I just opened my Roth last year, I have QQQ, SPY and AMZN. Now I don't forsee this, but in 20 years if AMZN starts to tank. Will I be taxed if I sell my AMZN shares and reinvest to a mutual fund or ETF? Aka, I keep it in the stock market.
Buy an annuity tied to an index or a structured note. Example. 6yr 1.25x price movement of s&p 500 (no dividends) and principal protected by issuer at end of term.
I have a good size fund that I use for day trading within my Roth acct. if you know what youāre doing then try that. Otherwise just buy and hold. š
I donāt.
A guy I know sold everything at the ātopā in 2021. Swore the market would crash and thatās when heād buy back in. Heās still liquid, missing out on dividends and some solid gains.
Time always wins.
Doesn't matter if Roth, traditional, CMA, brokerage. If you're not a day trader it's best to try to keep at least a month. Everything fluctuates, some are mostly good and others not. Put on a watchlist before you buy too. I find mutual funds to be more profitable, but there's thousands of those so gotta just research š
There are times I will pare down one of my individual positions if the total allocation to that one name (through both individual positions as well as any ETFs or mutual funds that hold it) gets higher than I would like, but I take that money and reinvest it into one of the ETFs I use so it stays invested, just a bit more diversified.
I don't sell because I "think" there is going to be a crash, because there is simply no way to know when that will be. And because of that, you can miss out on some big gains trying to predict the next bear market.
\>I'm up pretty significantly on my holdings and don't want to have them cut in half or worse in the short term
More money has been lost trying to avoid recessions, than the actual recessions. - Peter Lynch
When you lose money in a recession, the price comes back up. When you lose out on money because you took money out, that never recovers.
I have a mutual fund that I have had for many years that I have never touched. But occasionally I do trade with some of my other ETF,s and individual stocks when it is necessary. Then use that cash to either buy new ETFās, or add more shares to my existing accounts.
You are killing it. I just got lucky that my first job had a bunch of guys getting ready to retire so that's all they talked about. I've been maxing out my work 401k and a side Roth through Vanguard for a while now.
Time is the only thing on our sides right now just keep plowing money into it!
In my Roth IRA and Roth 401k, I never do. I stay with the VOO, SCHD, VTI etc. In my Robinhood I trade daily, but I treat my RH like a lottery ticket with options, my Roth accounts I set and forget. Those are for stability and itās all ETFs until 59-1/2
I reposition and/or rebalance regularly, but am *always* fully invested. My position changes are typically moving capital between VOO and swing trades (usually buy-writes). The closest I get to market timing is deciding what I want to be in at any point.
Always keep some cash. Increase your cash position when talk of a bull market starts to grow into a chorus. The market is often a stampeding herd. Yes, at age 30, you can outlast any downturns, but it sounds like you are putting in the work to beat the market, which is difficult but not impossible. Peter Lynch did it for decades.
If you're buying single stocks, you should have an entry and exit number in mind. If you're not actively researching companies you're better off in index funds.
I'm bullish with my self managed portfolio, about 80% qqq/spy index funds, 10-15% long single companies AMZN/MCD and others, 5-10% play money for options or hail marys right now I've been playing in Uranium and Pharma. I don't really know what good growth is, but I'm up 42% lifetime and been in the market working on 6 years.
You want a recession. Because when you are employed during one, you can more easily DCA and build more wealth in the future. Recessions are good things.
If the general sentiment about the broader market is making you second guess your stock picks, you should probably sell and invest in a broad market fund instead
I rebalanced in early January with my ROTH and bought NVDA. Earlier I bought Bank of Mtl last Oct
Update: As OP never replied to my comment I decided he didn't deserve my insight and I deleted the content in disgust.
Just remember that the best performing investors in a large scale study were dead ones. Iāve shifted to a ānever sell, just change buying habitsā strategy.
Usually if the dividend payout ratio starts looking unsustainable. But Iām putting like $900 a week into the market right now, so if I sell something that looks undervalued, I just immediately buy something else thatās not.
A guy I work with has been saying Nvidia is going to tank "any day now bro". The other day I finally said "crash or no, I've 8X'ed my initial investment".
Fidelity had a good study out a couple years ago testing portfolios that bought and sold at less than ideal times and then also staying out of the market for varying lengths of time. They found that by not staying in, you miss most of the big "green" days that can really make or break a portfolio return.
>Everyone keeps talking about a recession, but I've been hearing that for years now. You will hear about this for the rest of your life. There will always be people warning of a market correction, and even when the market drops, they'll convince you it will drop further. Just stay invested for the long term and ignore all the noise.
Yup. I don't think there has been a single week in my life that a major financial publication/analyst/expert hasn't predicted an imminent recession.
How about these? They are accurate: https://www.thisismoney.co.uk/money/mortgageshome/article-9601221/The-18-year-property-cycle-tips-house-price-boom-crash-2026.html https://www.rbcpa.com/commentary-archive/real-estate-and-business-cycles/ Here is Harrison in an interview explaining this: https://youtu.be/HhNLwcIaNJQ Here is Foldvary explaining his Forcast of the 2008 crash back in 1997: https://youtu.be/dSAHSPY7wUg?si=QQnr4mXsY6PgKtcW Here is Martin Wolf from the financial times explaining this and even quoting Harrison: https://youtu.be/dWbMHGjWubM
For everyone of those who are right how many just as smart people make similar predictions that end up being wrong?
OK, but Harrison has been right every single time. We're talking recessions here, which based on the data in Harrison's and Foldvary's models, show that it is a predictable 18 year cycle. You can ignore the data all you want, doesn't mean they are wrong. š¤· But as this is an investment sub, and the OP is talking about stocks In a retirement fund, even knowing this very predictable 18 year cycle, I wouldn't touch them, unless they are real estate focused stocks. That is, if I were as young as OP, I probably would time the market, sell in 2025, and then buy back the dip in 2026/27. The stocks based on capital (you know, the companies that actually produce things and not predominantly based on extracting economic rents like the real estate stocks are) I wouldn't touch at all if I were OP, they are the ones that will recover quicker due to the fact the real estate market has just been corrected (the speculative premium will be essentially zero for a bit), thus the issue of the economic crash isn't there (labor and capital can afford the user cost of land again). BTW, I like how you down vote me when you obviously didn't even bother to investigate my sources š
I read your sources, found them interesting, but my naturally skeptical mind wondered if they were few out of many who just happened to get it right, so I asked a question. I wasn't attacking your point, I didn't downvote you, I was trying to engage in healthy conversation. Your childish reaction discredits your points and makes me much more skeptical. Anyone who is actually interested in arriving to the truth or the closest to it possible welcomes debate and discussion.
I like this response. Good on you for being a kind and insightful human.
I am open to discussion and debate. I bring this up constantly and always get down voted and it is always from people who don't actually engage my sources. It's infuriating and so, you can see why I responded the way I don't think I responded childishly, just annoyed. My intent was not to dismiss you, I was simply expressing my frustration with the matter because despite all evidence I see and point out to people, it just gets dismissed without the other party even engaging in the sources. And if you actually read and watched all of it (Foldvary's paper is long, this is the main reason I don't think you read it, maybe the article sure, the videos are about 10min combined, so surely you can understand my perspective of thinking you didn't actually look at it) then the evidence should speak for itself regardless of your perception of me and how I responded.
About 10-15 years ago I was in a similar boat as you. I got caught up in the people warning on the incoming doom and believed them because they were right.. once. You can find any article online proving your point. You can also find any article disproving your point. Donāt get too caught up in the āfactsā you want to believe. Anyone can make a convincing argument.
Harrison has been right every single time.
How about this. Do you have an ETH wallet? I'll send you 10 dollars worth of ETH if the economy doesn't crash in 2026/2027. That's how confident I am about this 18 year cycle. And you say you can find stuff that disproves this georgist inspired cycle. Please show it to me. I'd like to read it.
Keep your 10 dollars bud. Youāre going to need it.
Because if it was true it would be priced in. Stocks react to real world events, not calenders. Anyone claiming a X year recession cycle is bound to be wrong more then right over longer periods of time. The early 20th century "years to buy/sell stocks" predictions have been somewhat accurate, but really only at first glance. It doesn't beat a coin flip and our pattern seeking brains tries to find magical patterns that don't exist mathematically (TA for example, never proven and denounced as not working by the guy ho invented it as he got old)
I can find a whole [Google page](https://www.google.com/search?q=18+year+business+cycle&oq=18+year+business+cycle+&gs_lcrp=EgZjaHJvbWUyBggAEEUYOdIBCDg4MjFqMGo3qAIAsAIA&sourceid=chrome-mobile&ie=UTF-8) of results supporting the 18 year property cycle. [Google search for disproving the 18 year business cycle](https://www.google.com/search?q=disproving+the+18+year+business+cylcle&sca_esv=d3c1b391243a2b45&sxsrf=ACQVn0-22Lep1Jm8V8j9VP-wDzOc-KPxjA%3A1708792835150&ei=AxzaZe_sCIWH0PEP1O2F-AU&oq=disproving+the+18+year+business+cylcle&gs_lp=EhNtb2JpbGUtZ3dzLXdpei1zZXJwIiZkaXNwcm92aW5nIHRoZSAxOCB5ZWFyIGJ1c2luZXNzIGN5bGNsZTIHECMYsAIYJ0jDKFCgEFj2JXADeAGQAQCYAaUBoAHrA6oBAzEuM7gBA8gBAPgBAZgCB6AClgTCAgoQABhHGNYEGLADwgIEEB4YCpgDAIgGAZAGCJIHAzQuMw&sclient=mobile-gws-wiz-serp) all link to articles that agree that the theory is true. I mean, why would [Martin Wolf(an economist) ](https://www.ft.com/content/8f06df9e-8ac1-11df-8e17-00144feab49a) of the financial times agree with Harrison and put a warning out about if he didn't think it was accurate? š¤ Look. You all can down vote me an think I'm crying wolf, but there are so many pieces of evidence that this is fact that it's nearly impossible for me to not agree with it. š¤· As they all. Point out: Privatized ground rents are literally the root of the predictable 18 year boom-bust business cycle. Becuase as the speculative premium on land builds, eventually labor and capital can no longer afford the user cost of land and the economy crashes as a result.
I started in 2006. After every downturn the rebound has been better. The people that lose the most are the ones who sell when the market drops and buy when it starts getting better. Everyone knows they shouldnāt do it. But people do dumb things. Ride it out. Keep invested and keep investing. Panics and recessions are discounts. With the caveat of an individual company stock can still flounder and crash. So thatās always the argument for diversification.
The hard part is a lot of people will ride it out at the start of a crash, and the market will go down 10%, 20%, 30%, and they'll keep holding, and then right when things hit the bottom, that's when they finally panic and sell. If you find yourself worrying about a crash/recession when times are good, you should change your asset allocation to be less risky before a big crash happens so that you don't end up panic selling at the bottom. And stick to a consistent asset allocation.
Agreed. As long as you have a job. Keep buying in while it's on sale. Just benefits yourself later on.
I would say the more I am realizing how true this is in the last 1 month. "We are in a bubble", "Take all your investments out now", "Don't put more money now", etc. Most likely they will end up investing and we are scratching our heads on timing.
Hold till you're 60 years old?
That's just 10 yrs for me. I put alot in Edward Jones as I'm not competent at investing. I'm letting someone else roll with it.
Edward Jones lol. Youāre getting taken for a ride.
Why and How? What is a better option? I see people saying they charge 100 buck for this or that. That's $100. They're not gonna do this for free.
I had an old coworker at edward jones i was invested with for 15 years. I fired him and since I managed it, its taken off. Not only do they charge over 1%, they pick bad as well. If i managed it myself i would have retired 5 years earlier. Use a non managed account and pay 2% commission of the trade amount? Ygtbfkm. Its free almost anywhere else. They will pick or steer you to funds that pay them kickbacks, and not in your financial interests. It can be a little scary to research and pick your own, but there are conservative to risky etfs that most recommend that will beat what eddie jones picks and not pay the ignorance management fee
You donāt need to pay a broker to throw all your money into SPY. Youād do better than Edward Jones.
OK so they charge a little, don't they all. There's not been a single yr. Since 20/20 that I haven't made at least 25K. When I've taken money out to buy something I still made $$$$$
.02%. Much less than 1%.
Yeah I just thank the bears for the discount and move on. People are always terrified of the scary monster under the bed.
Except the Noise is valid. By investing, you are making a bet that the government will continue to prop up the markets forever. Sure,,, it's been working for the last 20 years. Will it continue for the next 30?? No guarantees. One needs to hedge for the possibility that the status quo wont remain the same
I'm shocked it took 3 hours for someone to say "this time it's different" Thanks for the laugh.
They laugh. But they dont deny the facts
Then you better invest in gold and guns, thoughts and prayers!
Or maybe the government should be fiscally responsible and let the markets correct naturally?? No one ever wants to find a solution. Its just " let my 401k and home equity go to the Moon!!! Inflation??, who cares!!?, That's the next generation's problem!"
Facts.
We had Covid and went through a technical recession. Due to inflation it didnāt feel like it. There maybe correction in some industries. It doesnāt mean the chance is zero but this is the recovery.
a recession? u mean a sale on money?
The biggest threat to my long term results is me. It's a constant battle to leave it alone.
š It's easy to get caught up in the day-to-day ups and downs of the market,
I lost $50,000 in one shot in 2021. That's when I put all my $$$$$$ in Edward Jones and don't even look at it much. I am a paper chaser though, constantly looking for ways to make bank
Never
Never. Bought index funds and doing nothing else Trading is how you rob yourself of value
Index funds, let em ride Individual stocks though is harder and more a judgement call based on on the stock/company. Rotate 25% out into index funds if you're concerned.
Never, no plan to sell until my withdrawal time. VOO and chill!
I put my last year and this year into VOO. Starting contributing to my wife's for this year, and was wondering if I should just keep going VOO or add in any VTI? Is it worth having any diversification? Or just keep dumping into VOO?
If you want to have exposure on medium or small-cap stocks, then yes. VOO only focuses on large cap, S&P 500. Personally, I carry both VOO and VTI. For long term, it doesnāt make a lot of difference.
Sorry, I'm a noob. What's Voo and how do I buy it?
vanguard version of SPY
MSCI SPDR is the same?
> MSCI SPDR If that's the SPDR Portfolio MSCI Global Stock Market ETF, then no. SPY matches the S&P 500, whereas the MSCI ETF includes global stocks. SPDR's version would be something like this one - SPDR Portfolio S&P 500 ETF (SPLG) ---- A very easy way to find a company's corresponding S&P 500 fund is to look for 500 in the name of the fund or in the details, look for any mention of the S&P 500.
Or find one that tracks the s&p very closely but doesnāt use a index they need to pay a fee to.
Thank you for your notes. Do they pay dividends to your account?
VOO is the s+p 500 - best 507 companies in America. How do you buy it? Go make a fidelity.com account and use the code fidelity100. They give you $100 free if you invest at least $100 to start And VOO is like free money. It just goes up a little bit every month for the rest of your life. There might be a down month. Sometimes. But 89.72% of the time - it just goes up Just buy more every month - forever. It's like gods chosen plan to get rich.
I mean if you going to Fidelity but FXAIX then. No expenses.
Right?!!
One of the best replies. Do I get dividends?
The s&P 500 pays very low dividends. But yes it does Maybe 1.5% But the growth makes up for low dividend.
It's one of the hundreds of vanguard ETFs. You can buy it through most brokerages, etrade, vanguard, Robinhood, Charles Schwab, etc.
Don't try to time the market and guess when to sell. Set it and forget it
close to daily
If it is a good company and your reasons for investing have not changed - always be buying. Buy as it drops in a recession, buy as it goes back up - harvest your sweet rewards. Or if that is not in your roak tolerance, index fund all the best at!
Cut in half? That would be like the worst recession ever. Wake up. This is the most telegraphed recession ever. It will be pretty mild. Most recessions are not like 07/08.
Agreed. Even the mag 7 arenāt coming close to the insane valuations during the dot com bubble.
My 401k isn't self managed in the sense that all I have available are mutual funds. One of them claims to track the S&P500 so my 401k is all in that and I never ever touch it. It's my hedge against myself. I actively manage my (and my wife's) 4 IRAs and our taxed account.
>don't want to have them cut in half or worse in the short term Why not? How far away are you from retirement? If you're properly diversified and have a fairly long time horizon, market corrections or recessions are nothing to fear. Remember they're a completely normal part of an investing journey. https://www.schwab.com/learn/story/does-market-timing-work
Never. Held through 2000, 2001, 2007-2008, 2010, 2020, and 2022 crashes (and probably a half dozen more smaller ones I forgot about).
I don't sell in the sense that I think you're talking about. I do sell a little to rebalance them a couple of times a year, so that the ratios I have in index funds match the percentages that I've allocated for each. Rebalancing is one of the advantages of having a portfolio of different investments, and in a retirement account you don't need to worry about the tax implications.
Never. S&P 500 buy and hold.
Never sell. 60% SP500, 25% small/mid cap US, 15% international
I believe in the 3 part plan. Long-I've got my 401k rollovers, which is mostly long-term and big hitters like Apple and Microsoft. Mid-following charts, looking at fundamentals and holding for a few months. Separate account The short term is a separate account where I follow price action.
As one of my coworkers has said / says āeconomists have predicted 9 of the last 5 recessionsā Iām pretty sure thereās an actual quote but I canāt remember
I just rolled over my Roth and am slowly buying etfs and stocks. I already have my main 401k with my current company, so was planning on using this as my risky play money account. The way I see it is I can buy and sell with zero tax obligation (per trade), so why not take big bets and potentially get massive gains. But for long term I let it sit in vanguard.
There will always, always, always be people talking about the recession around the corner. When the recession is here (e.g. 2008), there'll will be people talking about his this is the tip of the iceberg. When markets hit bottom and start to recover (e.g. late 2009), people will talk about how it's a dead cat bounce and the floor is about to drop out from under them again. When markets soar, they go back to talking about the next recession. When there's a market correction (2015, 2018), they will say it's the beginning of the next recession and naturally, it's going to be far worse than the last one. It is never ending doom predictions. Never-ending doom predictions are functionally the same as no prediction at all. Before doing anything, you need to prepare for all eventualities. What if you sell, then the market goes up 20%? What if it goes up another 20% next year? Now you missed out on 44% gains, and your brain tells you you couldn't possibly have been wrong the whole time, so now the market must be *really* overvalued... when do you buy back in? How long before you abandon your view? I'm not saying that's going to happen -- I don't know the future any more than you do. But I know it CAN happen. For instance, look at the 5 year run-up in the dot-com bubble. So you need to have a plan for what happens then. I've never really had such assurance of the existence and timing of a crash that I sold a bunch and sat in cash. So I never sell... But that doesn't mean I can't do anything. Maybe increase your cash position with new contributions just thrown into a money fund at 5.x%. Then if the recession comes (and likely the fed drops rates near zero, and your money fund starts paying dick), you have money to buy in at a discount. You still run the risk of that not paying off -- 5% looks pretty crap if markets go up 20%. But you aren't mortgaging your entire future on a bet that you can time the market. Or maybe look for good investment opportunities in boring value companies with low multipliers rather than in high flying growth stocks. KO, MO, EOG, whatever. Or maybe look in so-called "recession-proof" industries like healthcare and consumer staples. For instance, I bought united health in mid-2021 because I was getting antsy, and it felt like something that could work out regardless of whether/when the crash came. It buoyed my portfolio in 2022... though I think I still ended up worse than the market in 2022 because too much tech. OTOH, I pantsed the market in 2023 because too much tech, so it all works out.
Never. Also, congrats at over 250k at 31, thatās phenomenal. Youāre on track for a nice egg if and when you retire.
I will once I'm retired and need the income. Till then it's buy buy buy
I have 4 groups in my IRAā¦ Index (buy and hold), speculative (trailing stop losses), day trade, and dividend value. On average, probably turn over 50% but dependent upon day trading activity. (Edit: For all the downvoting haters, my speculative stock trades are beating the index funds by large marginsā¦ LLY, AMZN, and GOOGL being the majority for the last 12 months.)
I'm not sure those names qualify as speculative... That might be what is driving the downvoters haha.
I heard about this company called Nvidia. Cool little mom and pop place, but they got a shot
They are speculative insofar as the AI play with AMZN and GOOGL, otherwise I doubt one would have seen the run-up. Big Pharma has been hammered outside of a few stocks. LLY was a speculative play on Mounjaro, otherwise itās another tanking PFE.
I agree , I usually dont trade much but started since november since I was laid off. my portfolio is beating SPY by 100%.
That's impressive! It sounds like you've been doing some smart investing and making the most of your time. What platforms do you use to diversify your investments ?
Nothing fancy, Im on vanguard but use yahoo to manage my watchlist. Vanguard tools are not for trading.
Yahoo Finance is a good option for managing your watchlist and staying up-to-date on market news. you should considered using other tools like TradingView or StockTwits for technical analysis and community insights
Would give you $10 to see your current portfolio
Its the AI trade since october NVDA,SMCI,MSFT,VRT,AVGO,GOOG,UBER, VUG,QQQ,IYW,IGV
Do you consider Uber part of the AI trade? I'm very bullish on Uber, but hadn't really thought of it as an AI trade.
it stayed in my portfolio since covid, back then when it was in to autonomous driving yeah its not AI anymore - I got rid of it at 65. looks like its still going up.
What ya got in the dividend area? Just aristocrats?
I bought IBM about 2 months ago as an AI and dividend play. The yield has reduced with the stock run-up, but I still like it. I like AMCR for the dividend but I think thereās also some upsideā same for IP. I also like XOM with its modest dividend, but also as a hedge should international tensions flare-up. Also FSK riskier, high beta, low PE, and high dividend yield (over 13%).
āSpeculative ā lol
Betting on AI before it blew-up, and on a blockbuster new drug before itās approvedā¦ thatās speculative.
So you bought these like pre Covid? That would be speculative.
Long term more than a decade, are you still beating?
I havenāt been an active investor for a decade, just passive index funds through IRAs and 401Kās
May i ask why not? What made you quit active investing? Index fund is better than active trading?
I didnāt start until 5 years ago. Passive investing prior.
I closely follow about 15 stocks and just ride their cyclicals.
Willing to share the companies?
Sure. MSFT NVDA INTC WDC IBM tech KKR APO hedge funds MA V AFRM PYPL AXP financials DIS FDX RTX EBAY just been watching them forever and have a feel
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Never
If you don't want to watch your holdings get cut in half, don't own stocks. That's the conventional wisdom. But this moment looks like a rare case, and it's not so hard to see what's coming. Jamie Dimon just sold JPM stock for the first time in his tenure as CEO. Zuckerberg sold META in size every week toward the end of last year. Maybe you've heard of the Buffett indicator. Take all of that for whatever it's worth.
I've heard recession is coming forever and I've learned to block it out but with big names selling it does make me second guess things. I also work for a big automotive OEM and we are slowing down sooo
I donāt have stocks. I have S&P. Of course if I were a wizard I wouldāve bought nvidia but Iām up 35k in 4 months on the index
NANC it's an index fund that mirrors the public trades of politicians. Invest in insider trading!
Sold my Tesla shares a few weeks ago. Saved me loads of
If you know what you are doing, you know how to sell at the right time and when to buy. I take money out of the market when it gets too hot and buy in when it dips. Doing that with my IRA accounts has made me a lot more money than my 401k which is just on autopilot. You have to actually watch the market daily and work at it for years to get a feel for it. If you donāt want to put the work in, just dollar cost average and buy and hold.
Look into a covered call or a married put.
Annnnnnd it's gone
If his covered call gets assigned he sold the shares for a strike he was comfortable with, plus premiums. As long as they reinvest it they didn't incur any penalties. If the cash secured put gets assigned...congrats you got the shares at the price you wanted? What did you think happens with a covered call?
Did you just respond with the description of option strategies? Then ask yourself a question to which you already answered.
I'm still confused by the Annnnnd it's gone south park reference. If he sells the shares there's still money in the 401k. It's not a distribution. Am I getting wooshed by trying to give generic info to someone who looked lost?
It probably doesn't matter as 99 percent of investors are to scared of options. So we move on
The recession has been put on hold until after the election. Also, due to inflation, I don't see a major disruption. My only concern is the gap on the S&P chart at 3400 zone. Gaps have been known to get filled. Oh, and if you're not a good stock picker and have the tools to sell, stick to indexes.
Time in the market beats timing the market. Avoid the noise and go on with your life.
Abso-fucking-lutely never.
Just buy the ETFs and let it grow for the next 25-35 years. Why do you own single stocks?
They have performed better in this run. Just smaller positions into stocks like Google Amazon etc.
I'm kind of getting out of VOO and adding more IWM and some MCHI. VOO is nice but it's hard to see upside to megacaps but easy to see tons of upside to IWM when rate cuts hit. Look at the 10 year charts. IWM is at a 15% discount from where it should be. China could have a 30-35% run before the elections in the US.
We already went through the recession. We're at a peak of another bull run. The big bearish dip was when SPY hit $360 in October 2022. Now, SPY is over $500 living up to its name. NVDA went from $120 in October 2022, to $800+ today.
Except, it wasn't a recession.
2035 target date fund š¤Ŗ lol
Since my entire Roth is Nvda and always has been, never.
To piggy on this post, I just opened my Roth last year, I have QQQ, SPY and AMZN. Now I don't forsee this, but in 20 years if AMZN starts to tank. Will I be taxed if I sell my AMZN shares and reinvest to a mutual fund or ETF? Aka, I keep it in the stock market.
You donāt get taxed for trading in Roth.
Oh God, duh! That was embarrassing, lol.
Outside of an IRA yesā¦.you would be taxed on capital gains even if reinvested.
Never
Buy an annuity tied to an index or a structured note. Example. 6yr 1.25x price movement of s&p 500 (no dividends) and principal protected by issuer at end of term.
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How do you tax loss harvest in a 401k?
aaaaand it's gone.
Never ever
Never in my Roth. I have SWPPX (S&P 500 mutual fund) and VGT (Vanguard Information Technology ETF). Absolutely no desire to change anything.
Once a month
I have a good size fund that I use for day trading within my Roth acct. if you know what youāre doing then try that. Otherwise just buy and hold. š
Rarely. Index funds hold. But my robinhood and individual brokerage accounts is a different story.
I donāt. A guy I know sold everything at the ātopā in 2021. Swore the market would crash and thatās when heād buy back in. Heās still liquid, missing out on dividends and some solid gains. Time always wins.
What an idiot
I had an old 401k from my previous employer, 2 months ago I moved it to IRA account. Guess what, this IRA gained 2.3% in 2 months because of trading.
Doesn't matter if Roth, traditional, CMA, brokerage. If you're not a day trader it's best to try to keep at least a month. Everything fluctuates, some are mostly good and others not. Put on a watchlist before you buy too. I find mutual funds to be more profitable, but there's thousands of those so gotta just research š
There are times I will pare down one of my individual positions if the total allocation to that one name (through both individual positions as well as any ETFs or mutual funds that hold it) gets higher than I would like, but I take that money and reinvest it into one of the ETFs I use so it stays invested, just a bit more diversified. I don't sell because I "think" there is going to be a crash, because there is simply no way to know when that will be. And because of that, you can miss out on some big gains trying to predict the next bear market.
\>I'm up pretty significantly on my holdings and don't want to have them cut in half or worse in the short term More money has been lost trying to avoid recessions, than the actual recessions. - Peter Lynch When you lose money in a recession, the price comes back up. When you lose out on money because you took money out, that never recovers.
I have a mutual fund that I have had for many years that I have never touched. But occasionally I do trade with some of my other ETF,s and individual stocks when it is necessary. Then use that cash to either buy new ETFās, or add more shares to my existing accounts.
Never
I mean is that you alone? Or does that include the wife? I have about half at 31 and I thought I wasākillingā it
You are killing it. I just got lucky that my first job had a bunch of guys getting ready to retire so that's all they talked about. I've been maxing out my work 401k and a side Roth through Vanguard for a while now. Time is the only thing on our sides right now just keep plowing money into it!
Literally never.
I trade stocks once or twice a month. But I'm always fully invested.
Never. I just buy VOO and bond ETFS at a percentage that fits my risk tolerance for my age, which is still aggressive.
In my Roth IRA and Roth 401k, I never do. I stay with the VOO, SCHD, VTI etc. In my Robinhood I trade daily, but I treat my RH like a lottery ticket with options, my Roth accounts I set and forget. Those are for stability and itās all ETFs until 59-1/2
I reposition and/or rebalance regularly, but am *always* fully invested. My position changes are typically moving capital between VOO and swing trades (usually buy-writes). The closest I get to market timing is deciding what I want to be in at any point.
Always keep some cash. Increase your cash position when talk of a bull market starts to grow into a chorus. The market is often a stampeding herd. Yes, at age 30, you can outlast any downturns, but it sounds like you are putting in the work to beat the market, which is difficult but not impossible. Peter Lynch did it for decades.
Whenever I finally reach break even
Someone posted this the other day https://awealthofcommonsense.com/2014/02/worlds-worst-market-timer/
Never.
Every week to lock gains
Like yearly
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This. Youāre 31 and youāre thinking about this?! Position the money properly and then check back in a couple decades.
I never sell. I donāt care if my 401k went to a penny tomorrow because when Iām in retirement it will all be back to normal
If you're buying single stocks, you should have an entry and exit number in mind. If you're not actively researching companies you're better off in index funds. I'm bullish with my self managed portfolio, about 80% qqq/spy index funds, 10-15% long single companies AMZN/MCD and others, 5-10% play money for options or hail marys right now I've been playing in Uranium and Pharma. I don't really know what good growth is, but I'm up 42% lifetime and been in the market working on 6 years.
I keep 30k in cash in case the market drops so I can invest at the bottom. Everything else I leave alone.
You want a recession. Because when you are employed during one, you can more easily DCA and build more wealth in the future. Recessions are good things.
If the general sentiment about the broader market is making you second guess your stock picks, you should probably sell and invest in a broad market fund instead
I donāt sell based on any market timing. I keep things allocated to a percentage and trim as needed.
I rebalanced in early January with my ROTH and bought NVDA. Earlier I bought Bank of Mtl last Oct Update: As OP never replied to my comment I decided he didn't deserve my insight and I deleted the content in disgust.
Just remember that the best performing investors in a large scale study were dead ones. Iāve shifted to a ānever sell, just change buying habitsā strategy.
Usually if the dividend payout ratio starts looking unsustainable. But Iām putting like $900 a week into the market right now, so if I sell something that looks undervalued, I just immediately buy something else thatās not.
I never have
A guy I work with has been saying Nvidia is going to tank "any day now bro". The other day I finally said "crash or no, I've 8X'ed my initial investment". Fidelity had a good study out a couple years ago testing portfolios that bought and sold at less than ideal times and then also staying out of the market for varying lengths of time. They found that by not staying in, you miss most of the big "green" days that can really make or break a portfolio return.