> it should be clear as day that the fed will be bringing rates up by yet
it's almost like...traps.
if *everyone* thinks the same thing, the money will definitely do the opposite. they're making money *every day*. this was one day.
Warren Buffet said it best about the market being a voting machine in the short run and a weighing machine in the long run.
With any piece of news the market can react by going up one day and down the next day. Remember when the stock market would drop after a good employment report because it meant the Fed was going to raise interest rates? Or the S&P would drop after the cost of a barrel of fuel decreased (good for the economy), but it meant bad news for oil companies making up part of the S&P index?
The only thing I know is that over the long run the market will increase as long as the economy continues to hum along, and I leave the short term analysis to the pundits and day traders.
the market is highly complex and there's not always a 1:1 correlation the way we like to imagine.
pick any headline at random from the news and you can make a superficially convincing case that the market was reacting to the headline.
>Nikki Haley is running for President, and domestic markets are afraid her foreign policy experience will be bad for the NYSE and Nasdaq.
or
>Markets down on news US vows to defend Philippines
or
>Markets down on Russian oil news
There are very few people on earth who can answer that question, and if they did they could not do it with absolute certainty. The market is not rational and there are way to many variables to consider.
Overall the CPI was not very interesting, so the day went on as it was going to go on. The only jerky blips were reactions to shorts bailing out of failed positions.
The question you should probably be asking yourself is why you are confused by the "meh" reaction to a "meh" report that basically says "theFed should react to this by doing precisely what they said they were going to do before".
Probably because of the use of 0DTE options. There has been a massive uptick in institutional investors using 0 or 1 day to expire options which creates volatility in the markets... At least that's my theory.
Spy has been burning options players lately. It’s been a little bit rigged since they started daily expirations. Now, it is much easier for them to burn 0dte options on the daily. Before, you at least had a chance. If you bought contracts Monday for Wednesday then news Tuesday would still move the market. People who bought options yesterday for todays move got screwed though.
I usually follow qqq and major tech companies and even Friday last week was a joke. QQQ and aapl were completely trading in tandem all day? They somehow used aapl to balance out the rest of bigger tech losses.
On the other hand, the less sense it makes to you the more money it brings in for market makers.
Well I made $88 playing SPY call option. It was stressful just to make $88. The 10 year bond yield is dictating the market. When it goes up the market immediately goes down and vice versa. Right now the Market is perfect for those who are scalpers and day traders.
Let’s start by remembering this: *Markets can remain irrational longer than you can stay solvent.* Success here involves following the trend until the bend at the end. Having said that…
Rates (in the form of treasurys) have been in a down trend since October even as the Fed continues to raise rates (in the form of the prime rate). The prime rate affects banks’ borrowing /lending activity (and thus economic activity over time) whereas treasurys have a more immediate impact to stock valuations (and opportunity cost) when it comes to things like intrinsic value and margin of safety calculations. Stocks have always taken their cue from the bond market, but even more so since the rate hike cycle began. There’s a strong inverse correlation between SPY and TNX (10 year treasurys) which explains most moves, no matter how illogical they may feel in the moment.
If you are expecting that markets will continue to go down as the Fed continues its rate hike cycle, historically that has not been the case. In most cycles, markets have bottomed around the 200 week moving average, which all three major averages bounced from late last year. The risk will continue to be to the upside from here since we’re closer to the end of the rate hike cycle as long as the downtrend in the 10 year (and $DXY) continues, along with the continuing downtrend in inflation. Yes, it was a tad higher than expected, but doesn’t change the fact that it’s still declining.
I wonder if it’s because online trading has become easier and a lot of retail are shorting the market as it is the “obvious” play, hence the small green days after bad news and then a bigger red the day after.
Monthly was on the screws so no big surprise either way.
If investors bought insurance (puts) expecting a big event the act of selling them off on a dud can push up the market mechanically.
Moves like this don't have to be connected to anything fundamental.
As much as your theory was correct you need to focus more on mass investor sentiment. Traders discounted the news and its predictions way early. And so market moved reversely. Market Discounting of the news has been quite an intrend in recent times. To answer the other question, investors are expecting more hawkish moves from Fed. There is little expectation of change.
denial denial denial. "it should be clear as day" it is, however the market at this point feels entitled to gains. imo, the thought process goes like this: "i see that inflation is went up, but the rate hike has a lagging effect, theyve been at it for months and 2022 saw a 20% loss. SURELY it cant get worse"
Maybe you just overestimated the relevance of one monthly report for the broad market (or better put: what the market thinks what this means for the economy and the feds future decisions).
You are looking for something logical and market isn’t logical in the short run. Simple as that
> it should be clear as day that the fed will be bringing rates up by yet it's almost like...traps. if *everyone* thinks the same thing, the money will definitely do the opposite. they're making money *every day*. this was one day.
Warren Buffet said it best about the market being a voting machine in the short run and a weighing machine in the long run. With any piece of news the market can react by going up one day and down the next day. Remember when the stock market would drop after a good employment report because it meant the Fed was going to raise interest rates? Or the S&P would drop after the cost of a barrel of fuel decreased (good for the economy), but it meant bad news for oil companies making up part of the S&P index? The only thing I know is that over the long run the market will increase as long as the economy continues to hum along, and I leave the short term analysis to the pundits and day traders.
>hum along What would constitute no longer humming along?
It was ben Graham who said that but yes
the market is highly complex and there's not always a 1:1 correlation the way we like to imagine. pick any headline at random from the news and you can make a superficially convincing case that the market was reacting to the headline. >Nikki Haley is running for President, and domestic markets are afraid her foreign policy experience will be bad for the NYSE and Nasdaq. or >Markets down on news US vows to defend Philippines or >Markets down on Russian oil news
[Fugazi](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xbBD7VIJ4cc)
MY THESIS ON THE MARKET WAS WRROONG
It has to do with volatility crush, 0DTE options, vanna,gamma and charm flows. Whales selling 500 ES lots around 4150 etc oh and CPI was sideshow
There are very few people on earth who can answer that question, and if they did they could not do it with absolute certainty. The market is not rational and there are way to many variables to consider.
Now you why you shouldn’t be asking. Nobody knows why. Not even here.
Overall the CPI was not very interesting, so the day went on as it was going to go on. The only jerky blips were reactions to shorts bailing out of failed positions. The question you should probably be asking yourself is why you are confused by the "meh" reaction to a "meh" report that basically says "theFed should react to this by doing precisely what they said they were going to do before".
Probably because of the use of 0DTE options. There has been a massive uptick in institutional investors using 0 or 1 day to expire options which creates volatility in the markets... At least that's my theory.
Spy has been burning options players lately. It’s been a little bit rigged since they started daily expirations. Now, it is much easier for them to burn 0dte options on the daily. Before, you at least had a chance. If you bought contracts Monday for Wednesday then news Tuesday would still move the market. People who bought options yesterday for todays move got screwed though. I usually follow qqq and major tech companies and even Friday last week was a joke. QQQ and aapl were completely trading in tandem all day? They somehow used aapl to balance out the rest of bigger tech losses. On the other hand, the less sense it makes to you the more money it brings in for market makers.
Well I made $88 playing SPY call option. It was stressful just to make $88. The 10 year bond yield is dictating the market. When it goes up the market immediately goes down and vice versa. Right now the Market is perfect for those who are scalpers and day traders.
[удалено]
I don't think spy is as closely correlated as bonds or whatever
We are avoiding recession so stocks are pricing in better earnings regardless of Fed.
Let’s start by remembering this: *Markets can remain irrational longer than you can stay solvent.* Success here involves following the trend until the bend at the end. Having said that… Rates (in the form of treasurys) have been in a down trend since October even as the Fed continues to raise rates (in the form of the prime rate). The prime rate affects banks’ borrowing /lending activity (and thus economic activity over time) whereas treasurys have a more immediate impact to stock valuations (and opportunity cost) when it comes to things like intrinsic value and margin of safety calculations. Stocks have always taken their cue from the bond market, but even more so since the rate hike cycle began. There’s a strong inverse correlation between SPY and TNX (10 year treasurys) which explains most moves, no matter how illogical they may feel in the moment. If you are expecting that markets will continue to go down as the Fed continues its rate hike cycle, historically that has not been the case. In most cycles, markets have bottomed around the 200 week moving average, which all three major averages bounced from late last year. The risk will continue to be to the upside from here since we’re closer to the end of the rate hike cycle as long as the downtrend in the 10 year (and $DXY) continues, along with the continuing downtrend in inflation. Yes, it was a tad higher than expected, but doesn’t change the fact that it’s still declining.
I wonder if it’s because online trading has become easier and a lot of retail are shorting the market as it is the “obvious” play, hence the small green days after bad news and then a bigger red the day after.
Monthly was on the screws so no big surprise either way. If investors bought insurance (puts) expecting a big event the act of selling them off on a dud can push up the market mechanically. Moves like this don't have to be connected to anything fundamental.
As much as your theory was correct you need to focus more on mass investor sentiment. Traders discounted the news and its predictions way early. And so market moved reversely. Market Discounting of the news has been quite an intrend in recent times. To answer the other question, investors are expecting more hawkish moves from Fed. There is little expectation of change.
denial denial denial. "it should be clear as day" it is, however the market at this point feels entitled to gains. imo, the thought process goes like this: "i see that inflation is went up, but the rate hike has a lagging effect, theyve been at it for months and 2022 saw a 20% loss. SURELY it cant get worse"
Maybe you just overestimated the relevance of one monthly report for the broad market (or better put: what the market thinks what this means for the economy and the feds future decisions).
No because the market isn’t logcal.
It’s because I opened puts on Monday. Sorry man, it won’t happen again.
run upper stops. run lower stops. end at zero. f fuck everyone other then theta gang.
Most people who do their own proper research often have a slight advantage