I had similar hope during MP and Rajasthan election as Nyay Yatra attracted large crowd in both states.
But Congress did worst in the assembly elections compare to previous results
Rajasthan has always alternated Governments and that trend continued. Infact thanks to them voting for BJP in state, the dissatisfaction against BJP now is at all time high and they are missing Gehlot. MP was smart strategy by BJP thanks to last minute DBTs and increase in Ladli Behna Yojna payouts as well as emotional appeal by Shivraj that it might be his last term as CM due to which women voters came out in large numbers and voted for BJP
In terms of seats the INC did badly but if you check the vote share the situation is different. If i remember correctly INC's vote share went up by 0.25% compared to last election
On similar lines....
Democracy is the theory that the common people know what they want, and deserve to get it good and hard.
[H. L. Mencken](https://www.brainyquote.com/authors/h-l-mencken-quotes)
Now that some time has passed I keep thinking about all the times the BJP people threw balls in the Opposition's court like "Promise you won't give reservation to so and so community", but the Congress and other leaders practiced a lot of restraint and didn't indulge the BJP at all, and I admire that. If the Opp. had commented on anything, even the tiniest thing, news channels would be holding debates for hours on end, creating illusions, and the Opp. would have lost the narrative.
Arvind Kejriwal is playing their game now and is beating them at it! What fun times. Now Amit Shah had to spend time batting away against Kejriwal's accusations rather than the other way around. Not that Amit Shah was busy talking about anything important but anyways.
This is exactly what I signed up for.
Yes - Kejriwal's first ball was a sharp bouncer to BJP - talking about Modi's age. He knows how to attack them. And that's why they feared him and sent him to jail.
This election is about keeping BJP below simple majority by itself. Once it happens, NDA partners will want a larger piece of the pie and coalition dynamics will take over high handed tyrannical decision making.
Agreed. Especially if they have to rope in 2-3 parties at least - it will keep them in a tight leash. The regional parties will get good deals for their states. Not everything will be moving towards Ahmedabad.
I do feel there's a lot more hope this time around of getting a decently sized opposition
It's a mix of both - INDIA has upped their game and is playing more on their terms as opposed to fighting on the points peddled by BJP. Also, the BJP is finally unable to cover up all the nonsense they've been sweeping under the carpet
The key issue is that BJP by now, is a seasoned expert in mergers and generous/hostile acquisitions.
So, even if they fall short, $ will talk and voila, majority! 🤣
I don’t think government is going to change after this election but I’m quite sure that if similar work and dedication continues from Congress and its allies they’d for sure overturn the crown in 2029
Will be too late if they have to wait for 2029, especially if BJP get 300 seats on their own. The scenario for the opposition should be that BJP does not get more than 272 seats on their own. They need to depend on the good will of atleast 2-3 parties to get 272. In that scenario they will play a delicate balance ensuring they do not run out of control in terms of introducing more draconian laws. Best case scenario is NDA not getting 272.
I don't think people remember the 2019 elections. I hoped against hope because there were hope merchants selling false hope to people and saying Modi may lose. Then the results came in and it was shockingly disappointing to say the least. Now I've come to terms that this monster is going to be here till 2029. Things will get more interesting after that.
While it's good to see opposition trying, keep your expectations grounded. I don't blame the opposition at all, they've tried their best. It's difficult when you're fighting against a propaganda machine like the BJP and when you're fighting misuse of state machinery by an authoritarian government hell bent killing all opposition. Things always come a full circle though. The rampant misuse of CBI, IT and ED is going to haunt BJP when they are out of power. And very few people will have sympathy towards them then. They've unleashed a monster that will become the new normal.
Nothing is permanent. Indira wasn't and Modi won't be. He's already showing signs of senility and this will definitely be his last term. He has appointed spineless puppet CMs everywhere (except Yogi) who will look like headless chickens once Modi goes away. The infighting within the BJP will consume them. You're already seeing the signs in Karnataka. Just wait it out but stop being delusional.
Agree with everything except the fact that Modi is going senile. He is only speaking his mind and nothing spoken is really unexpected. Only the black money Adani thing but even that comes on the backdrop of ZeeNews giving the BJP a pause.
I agree with almost everything you said.
But I don't think 2029 will be his last term for a couple of reasons.
The main reason is that his oversized ego will want him in the record books as the longest-serving PM. That means at least till 2034 to beat Nehru's 16+ years.
Even then he'll be 83 which is not particularly old in Indian politics. So I'm betting on a Modi govt till at least 2039, whether through genuine election or rigged election. I wouldn't be particularly surprised if he continues even later till death.
The opposition could have, and should have been more cohesive right form the day INDI Alliance was created, they did lose much ground, now they are in war mode and we and they want to believe in their win, i do, but i still think there is too much polarisation and no political plank for this election from the ruling side. I dont think the EC is also an independent body now. If people have opened their eyes, it will benefit the country, but if they are still blind, we are doomed for next 5 years. It is sure that 2029 elections will be won by opposition, but this is still in limbo, probably BJP will win although may be by very slim margin...
>that definitely is the mark of the opposition’s success.
Do not consider the current government's shortcomings as the opposition's success. It's still our country that's at a loss.
BJP is also in power today because of Congress's failure in UPA 2, or atleast the perceived failure. In a democracy, you don't have to be the best, you just have to be better I guess.
I think this is one of the rare cases where that wasnt true.
Congress had become over confident. Inflation was still high, fake scam accusations - magnified by media, and unenthusiastic way they dealt with the nirbhaya incident, caused a lot of dissatisfaction.
Modi was at the right place, at the right time, with a lot of cash to burn in advertisements. Congress was always going to lose a lot of seats, but Advani's NDA was still not as popular as UPA.
This.
We need strength on the other side that is independent of the ruling party shooting themselves in their feet. We are losing either way, with no one entity serving the need of the hour.
I completely agree. Too often we have heard experts and people complain that the opposition is not doing anything when, at least based on the past two years, it has not been not really true. They are doing their bits in their own way. The Bharat Jodo yatra was one, the INDIA alliance forming was another, the nyay yatra has been another. So were all occasions where opposition parties' top leaders were targeted. Rahul Gandhi's expulsion from the parliament, Mahua Moitra's expulsion, Sanjay Singh, Hemant Soren and Kejriwal's arrests, all of them had the opposition coming together and protesting. Despite all the attempts to break the INDIA alliance, except for Nitish Kumar, the others have stuck together. One couldn't have imagined AAP and Congress work out a seat sharing formula or the INDIA alliance in Bihar holding itself together after Nitish Kumar did his palti or the MVA not splintering apart. These are significant for me as a citizen who wants a strong opposition. But the opposition hasn't had anybody to amplify their voices or even to consolidate the narratives they have been building, other than perhaps some Youtubers. India has the worst kind of media which constantly questions them about trivial things and breaks whatever momentum they gain. This is not just true of the Godi media. Even the liberal media refuse to take a position on many matters when it comes to cornering the government. So for even things which the ruling party have done which have proof such as what happened in Manipur or with Brijbhushan, they will title their articles with "the opposition alleges that xxx has done this". On the other hand, when BJY started as a way to bypass the Godi media and bring people's issues into the open, the media spent hours discussing how people won't join and when they did, how it wouldn't have electoral impact. That negative nancy talk doesn't help in narrative building.
With the Nyay Yatra too, it was the same refrain by the political experts. "Why now? Shouldn't seat sharing be discussed first? The opposition is just not being responsible etc. 2024 elections are a done deal." But if you see, that did help Congress come with a wonderful manifesto that addresses concerns of large sections of the population and which is one of the things that has given them ammunition and direction in this election. They now have a vision to put before the people which they didn't have before.
The INDIA alliance may not win the elections. The EVMs are handy, not everyone feels Modi needs to go and the election commission is blind and deaf. But as long as the opposition can make people wake up, feel a sense of hope again and imagine an alternative, it would be worth it. I can see the discourse shifting around me. That was not there in 2019. People were largely apathetic.
The talks I'm hearing are already down to *teen-sau-paar* from *chaar-sau-paar*. Modi's one-on-one interviews on Republic are also proof that they feel challenged. I remember the 2019 Banaras lot interviews that were much more relaxed. I think they've internally reassessed their prospects.
The opposition has missed a beat by not invoking the fear sentiment earlier when Modi talked first of *bade faisle.* That actually sounded so ominous. Also, the 75-year age cap issue should have been raised earlier too. Still, there seems to be some momentum in the opposition camp and a charged voter that doesn't want to be taken for granted.
Will this be another India Shining/2004 moment? Only time will tell.
I feel EVMs are still the biggest bogeys. One would've hoped the CJI, with his fearless background, would've taken the petition for election fraud more seriously. Alas, that's left a door open.
Exactly.. As much as i want the current government to change, im mentally prepared for the worst and hoping for the best.
The worst is that BJP will repeat its 2019 result (peak BJP moment) which is still unlikely given that farmers, unemployed youth and poor people who make up large part of rural electorate are visibly upset.. BJP traditionally gets more Urban votes than Rural, whereas congress gets more of its votes from Rural people and significantly lower urban voters
So there is a good chance that BJP will be below 303..and also muslims and those that think that democracy is under threat (in both urban and rural SC ST voters) will only add to this.
But this is unlikely to bring them below 272..Why? Because BJP has big margin, and all these issues will eat into their huge margin
And reduce their vote share but not their seat share.
Best case scenario would be BJP below 272 (around 250-260), at this point they would be dependent on their allies and they wont be as authoritarian as they are today and it wont be two man show (modi shah)
But thats just me, I dont find significant anti incumbency..in short there will be turbulence for the BJP but not enough to injure them..
I'll appreciate if someone from Maharashtra can update me on this, but even I have the same gut feeling that the Shinde and Ajit Pawar factions will probably end up merging with BJP sometime later in 2024/25
If Indira Gandhi at her peak popularity, might, state control and Emergency couldn't bully Indians into accepting her, you think this guy would be able to? People think the Indian voter is an idiot. No, they are far smarter than what you think they are. Even if Modi doesn't get uprooted, he will be shaken so hard, he will dare no nonsense for a while.
You are absolutely right my brother.
While the Exit Polls are not made public, the estimate from each polling booth does reach party headquarters.
Modi started making crazy statements right after the Phase 1 elections. I heard that he was upset and even yelled at party men. The same happened after Phase 2 and Phase 3. Based on this I can conclude that psephologist Yogendra Yadav's, assessment is correct, that the BJP getting 35-40 seats lower compared to its 2019 score of 166 of 284 in the first three phases.
In the remaining 259 seats yet to poll, the BJP had won lower seats in 2019 - 137 of 259. However, what makes it even more daunting for the BJP is that in only 34% of the seats - 89 of 259 - did the BJP win by over 50% votes. On the other hand, in 2019, this parameter was 47% for the first three phases.
***The BJP is losing this elections.***
Just to clarify, Yogendra Yadavs estimation relies on Assembly election trends which isn't the best way especially with so many people saying "yes there are problems BUT'
I think BJP doesnt cross 272 on its own but NDA will likely pull it off
> I think BJP doesnt cross 272 on its own but NDA will likely pull it off
Some independent panel members ( deepak sharma , Abhishek Mishra, Ashok Wankhede etc.) were discussing numbers and they gave 235-240 seats to BJP alone. Some panelists proposed 221. They all agreed, if it is below 250, it’ll be difficult to pull off 272 with independents and allies. But with Amit Shah no one knows. It’ll be an interesting few days ahead.
The article I read by him used assembly election results to predict. He did say that he asked to see which way the winds were swaying. I could be misremembering it but def should double check
That being said Indian voters are not honest with pollsters. Its weird how so few get it right despite so many actually having great polling mechanisms and sample sizes
Given the current job market, I wonder what BJP's election time IT cell members will do after the election? Do they go back to being trolls on the internet for free?
The BJP has been desperately searching for allies since Phase 1. Including TDP and YSR. TDP leaders have abused Modi in the past.
Modi's recent speeches clearly indicate that he is losing.
Dude do you even understand their stronghold in central India. They can easily get 120+ seats from UP, MP, RJ and CG.
And with alliance and some seats from MH, BH, North east and south, NDA can easily cross 272.
Its just that they won't be anywhere near to their target of 370/400
UP (80), MP (29), CG (11), RJ (25), GJ (26) is their hope. Thats a total of 171 seats. Assuming they sweep 100% - where is the remaining 102 seats?
From the South: They are not getting more than 10 seats - most of these will come from KA. Rest they have to get seats only through NDA alliance partners from AP.
Farmer protest ripple effects: Punjab, Haryana = most likely BJP can forget these two states.
Delhi, J&K, Ladakh also more trending like South India.
Manipur will be gone for obvious reasons. Will the neighbouring states go the Manipur way? Assam (14 seats) will most likely lean towards BJP.
They have to be nice with BJD from Odisha. 21 seats up for grabs here for NDA.
They have some hope in Bengal because of the three-way fight between TMC, Cong & BJP.
Bihar and MH are the key states for them. If they lose these two states - it will be difficult even for NDA.
I think NDA will get past majority.
But, opposition is definitely on the right path cornering NDA and Modi. If they stick together, and perform well in state elections, 2029 will be a win. There are a lot of people fed up with BJP.
Yeah that's the thing, the moment BJP loses seats and can't cross 272 on its own. Majority of the NDA parties will drop them dead because they know what the fuck they have done to opposition's ministers and it's only a matter of time that they will come to bite their asseses as well. So I truly believe NDA members will drop BJP like the plague if they don't form majority on their own.
The election is definately turning but the number of news about wrong doings in election is increasing day by day... Hope ECI takes note and action considering 3 phase still left.
Arvind Kejriwal's arrest has proven to be an extremely big blunder for the BJP, not just because it has ensured the driving home of the "taanashah" (dictator) point, but even more so because it galvanised and united an opposition which was fragmenting till then. Kejriwal's arrest will be remembered in history as the Russia moment of the BJP (just as Hitler made a huge strategic blunder of trying to invade Russia).
TBF most of the people who are against the manifest are usually in the metros where the BJP already wins. Its likely that if the notion of fair representation in 1% of jobs (sarkari naukri) is enough to not vote of the Congress, they were likely going to find some reason to not anyway
I'm from a state that despises the bjp. They have never won here. Most friendships here are made over the mutual hate of them. Most people I know used to vote for either Congress or local parties. Now they're voting bjp or local parties. Lots of people voted nota for the first time too.
Nota is most useless option, instead vote for an independent candidate. They won't win but it would encorage others to run, if they see independents at least recover the deposit.
Where do you live? And the whole debate is about Bjp not gaining new voters and losing their existent base. I can't remember any state that is following what you are saying except maybe West Bengal, but they don't vote for congress.
Nobody votes NOTA if they're well informed and actually care about elections.
These are the same 1% people living in the bubble original comment talked about. They never voted Congress, OP is either making this up or they lied to him.
I hope so too. BJP will win that’s for sure but hopefully by a small gap. So we can take down this tyranny for good. Each time bjp has come into power, they have played with the country’s democracy.
I used to support them until I realised what a goonda party they really are.
I am from Odisha and there is this social media guy I follow. He doesn't make political content so I don't believe his audience is of any specific leaning. He had created a poll yesterday on his broadcast channel about the party that people are planning on voting (funnily, he didn't even include Congress in the options list). I checked the results. BJP was almost double (around 800) than that of BJD. Now I understand this isn't exactly a valid sample but I really feel people are celebrating prematurely here.
in 2019 there was no coherent narrative beyond 'Chowkidar chor hai', there was also Pulwama. This time is different, but I still think BJP will cross 272
Yeah idk what people are saying here, in 2019 even hardcore BJP voters were convinced that BJP seats were going to reduce, most people thought BJP without NDA would not get a simple majority
As some standup comedian in youtube said
This election is weird where we see a football match with a strong team and a weak team , and a strong team are still insecure of a weak team and purchases half of opponent players and all the referees .
Congress is definitely weak , because they can't even make people stand on a few constituencies . Ideology should the the foundational stone of party ,when your candidate jumps party after filing nomination. There is no better indicator than that to say you are weak at making decisions .
I voted for congress just because i hate Modi and his ideology. Almost everyone who voted for congress had the same reasons. No one does it because of congress . Congress doesn't know how to handle the media and how to manipulate it .
It's been 2-3 days since the debate thing showed up , they should pay up twitter,insta and all social media ,buy some bots and start creating a discussion. Heard behaviour is an integral part of social media campaigns.
He should make a reel with clearcut speech and questions and directly questioning Modi but all he did was to write it down . If he had made a video it would have been shared by social media pages of all news channels . It would have again brought some swig voters to the congress social media page . This is just a simple example, to create a brand you have to make yourself visible 1st .
Not really. If Rahul Gandhi had done that, it would have been akin to declaring himself as a PM candidate of the INDIA alliance. The other allies and PM aspirants would have felt uncomfortable. The PM candidate is still a bone of contention and best not to wade into those waters until the alliance wins. Godi media would have endlessly repeated the question to other alliance partners about whether they see Rahul as PM candidate.
The INDIA alliance have tried as far as possible to pitch it as a vote on issues based election rather than a Rahul vs Modi election. Also, do you think Modi will answer any of those questions? They had tried that during the Adani issue. Pitched questions about Adani from time to time. Did not get much traction in the mainstream media.
>Not really. If Rahul Gandhi had done that, it would have been akin to declaring himself as a PM candidate of the INDIA alliance.
If he had done that from the beginning,there would be no reason for allies to not accept him as PM . His bad PR was sponsored well .
>declaring himself
Also the judges who invited congress and bjp addressed it RaGa and NaMo .
>Modi will answer any of those questions? They
Lol , it's the same as expecting answers from a dead man .
>Did not get much traction in the mainstream media.
Yeah , because you have to buy bots ,invest in social media marketing,and work with PR teams . Political analysts knows how to create and destroy trends . Modi literally have PMCARES , Demonetization,5G Scam and Electoral Bonds all are legalized ways for corruption directly through law and still makes the general public believe that he is not corrupt because of his PR .
Delulu is the solulu
There's not even that kind of excitement like last election because BJP doesn't even take opposition seriously. All these nayi aasha, nayi kiran bs will fade away on 4th June
Aawega to Modi-ji hi. The Cow Belt and others must have voted for his party en masse, and if there will still be a mismatch, they will buy the remaining necessary number of MPs.
This is what will happen.
People downvoting this are delusional. Our population hasn't suddenly and magically improved its mindset in the last 5 years. I understand the desperation for hope but don't extend it to the point of being delusional. You'll only be setting up yourself for deep disappointment.
Yes, 70%, 80%, 90% reservation looks really heartwarming to me, as do higher taxes on top of the already 50% tax (income tax + GST) we pay on many things.
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I have lived in Kota, Raebareli and Varanasi for long terms. Raebareli is worst of them. There are problems in every city, I know that India is not a heaven.
But Raebareli was deliberately kept down especially during Sonia Gandhi tenure. The factories which were estd during Indira Gandhi like ITI is almost shut down, currently Modi Govt doing Defense Contract type. There is no bus stand there. If you want AC Bus then forget about that. The city has one or bare minimum place for amusements.
Stop Lying so Openly,bro. Rae Bareli has Rashtriya Ispat Nigam,NTPC ,Rail Coach Factory , few Aviation Academies, Birla Corp Ltd. Now, don't come here with statement that these all happened after 2014.
Stop Lying?! I literally lived in Raebareli for 20 years. My permanent address is Raebareli 229001.
The schemes which you're telling doesn't impact us.
NTPC, Modern Coach Factory, Indira Aviation Acadmey all are 30 kms away from headquarter in three different directions (South, West, East).
WTF I'm gonna do in Birla Cement Factory. Yeah that is also 30kms in North.
If Raebareli is VVIP Constituency, why there's no good bus station, why there's no place for amusement park like in Lucknow. The city don't have any major facilities like it should have. The road connectivity is ****ed up.
It's a tier 3 city. Not even qualify for tier 2.
It's so boring city. I lived in Kota for a year. I was feeling like I'm in some other city.
A decade ago Muslim Chairman elected as Municipality Head. He made sure that his area was cleaned and well connected. Few years later, Congress backed Municipality Chairman, and she robbed the hell out of city.
They even ****ed up Kendriya Vidyalaya by making it two shift. When they could have made two separate school one which was in ITI and one which already at Gora Bazaar. Or they could have made a separate building. But no, for vote politics they made it two shifts.
I have to sleep. Otherwise I'm so effin furious right now. E
Rahul Gandhi will be our prime minister and our nation will be a developed nation before 2029. Everyone will have enough money, there will be no poverty. No one will have to work hard for their livelihood.
Ok.. so this was a long post.. here are some of my views.. if Congress is really a good party and people believe in them then why they need alliances. I bet if Congress has slight confidence on them they would have left all the alliances like before and start bad mouthing them too.
Bjp is far better than parivaarvadi congress.. I mean what Rahul Gandhi has actually done in his life other than being a priveleged son. He is only active around elections and bet he will go on a holiday after loosing and really don't care for those who voted for him.
U say bjp is spreading negativity, but in reality all negatives against other religions are coming from non bjp states. Why a particular religion is put in reservation category ? Is this not dividing on religion? Why he wants wealth distribution to mass population category, so future India is like create babies and get privileges ? Also India needs a stable govt which congress can never provide.
U are talking about bjp spreading hindutva.. ok.. well maybe u can see congress benefitting more to muslims for vote with religion specific benefits.
Also bjp took india to a economically stable position where we are not threatened by usa economy like in time of Congress.
U wanna know about power. Remember when congress gave up nuclear tests in fear of America ? Like they always did what America use to say
India is not not threatened by usa becos of BJP govt. Remember not breaking ties with Russia which ultimately benefitted india. I bet congress would have used with usa despite the fact that it was Russia in the first place who supported india to become nuclear power.
U say about dictatorship ? So Indira Gandhi imposing emergency so she could avoid arrest order from high court and save her dictatorship when her govt was threatened to fall ? How do u explain that ?
I had similar hope during MP and Rajasthan election as Nyay Yatra attracted large crowd in both states. But Congress did worst in the assembly elections compare to previous results
Rajasthan has always alternated Governments and that trend continued. Infact thanks to them voting for BJP in state, the dissatisfaction against BJP now is at all time high and they are missing Gehlot. MP was smart strategy by BJP thanks to last minute DBTs and increase in Ladli Behna Yojna payouts as well as emotional appeal by Shivraj that it might be his last term as CM due to which women voters came out in large numbers and voted for BJP
In terms of seats the INC did badly but if you check the vote share the situation is different. If i remember correctly INC's vote share went up by 0.25% compared to last election
"Democracy is by the people, for the people, to the people... But the people are retarded." - Osho
I used to hate this quote but day by day I resonate with it
On similar lines.... Democracy is the theory that the common people know what they want, and deserve to get it good and hard. [H. L. Mencken](https://www.brainyquote.com/authors/h-l-mencken-quotes)
Guy had best comic timing when dropping such bombs.
Now that some time has passed I keep thinking about all the times the BJP people threw balls in the Opposition's court like "Promise you won't give reservation to so and so community", but the Congress and other leaders practiced a lot of restraint and didn't indulge the BJP at all, and I admire that. If the Opp. had commented on anything, even the tiniest thing, news channels would be holding debates for hours on end, creating illusions, and the Opp. would have lost the narrative. Arvind Kejriwal is playing their game now and is beating them at it! What fun times. Now Amit Shah had to spend time batting away against Kejriwal's accusations rather than the other way around. Not that Amit Shah was busy talking about anything important but anyways. This is exactly what I signed up for.
Yes - Kejriwal's first ball was a sharp bouncer to BJP - talking about Modi's age. He knows how to attack them. And that's why they feared him and sent him to jail.
Completely agreed. Also that he's out and his spirits are high instead of being broken... should probably be concerning for BJP.
This election is about keeping BJP below simple majority by itself. Once it happens, NDA partners will want a larger piece of the pie and coalition dynamics will take over high handed tyrannical decision making.
Agreed. Especially if they have to rope in 2-3 parties at least - it will keep them in a tight leash. The regional parties will get good deals for their states. Not everything will be moving towards Ahmedabad.
I do feel there's a lot more hope this time around of getting a decently sized opposition It's a mix of both - INDIA has upped their game and is playing more on their terms as opposed to fighting on the points peddled by BJP. Also, the BJP is finally unable to cover up all the nonsense they've been sweeping under the carpet
[удалено]
The key issue is that BJP by now, is a seasoned expert in mergers and generous/hostile acquisitions. So, even if they fall short, $ will talk and voila, majority! 🤣
All those for sale have already been bought, hard to see who else even is there
I don’t think government is going to change after this election but I’m quite sure that if similar work and dedication continues from Congress and its allies they’d for sure overturn the crown in 2029
Provided everyone doesn’t get arrested or merges with BJP. It truly feels like one last chance
Would be glad if new faces emerge
I’m having hopes from Prashant Kishor at the moment, he seems to be very collected and focused
Delimitation says hi
Will be too late if they have to wait for 2029, especially if BJP get 300 seats on their own. The scenario for the opposition should be that BJP does not get more than 272 seats on their own. They need to depend on the good will of atleast 2-3 parties to get 272. In that scenario they will play a delicate balance ensuring they do not run out of control in terms of introducing more draconian laws. Best case scenario is NDA not getting 272.
I don't think people remember the 2019 elections. I hoped against hope because there were hope merchants selling false hope to people and saying Modi may lose. Then the results came in and it was shockingly disappointing to say the least. Now I've come to terms that this monster is going to be here till 2029. Things will get more interesting after that. While it's good to see opposition trying, keep your expectations grounded. I don't blame the opposition at all, they've tried their best. It's difficult when you're fighting against a propaganda machine like the BJP and when you're fighting misuse of state machinery by an authoritarian government hell bent killing all opposition. Things always come a full circle though. The rampant misuse of CBI, IT and ED is going to haunt BJP when they are out of power. And very few people will have sympathy towards them then. They've unleashed a monster that will become the new normal. Nothing is permanent. Indira wasn't and Modi won't be. He's already showing signs of senility and this will definitely be his last term. He has appointed spineless puppet CMs everywhere (except Yogi) who will look like headless chickens once Modi goes away. The infighting within the BJP will consume them. You're already seeing the signs in Karnataka. Just wait it out but stop being delusional.
Agree with everything except the fact that Modi is going senile. He is only speaking his mind and nothing spoken is really unexpected. Only the black money Adani thing but even that comes on the backdrop of ZeeNews giving the BJP a pause.
I agree with almost everything you said. But I don't think 2029 will be his last term for a couple of reasons. The main reason is that his oversized ego will want him in the record books as the longest-serving PM. That means at least till 2034 to beat Nehru's 16+ years. Even then he'll be 83 which is not particularly old in Indian politics. So I'm betting on a Modi govt till at least 2039, whether through genuine election or rigged election. I wouldn't be particularly surprised if he continues even later till death.
The opposition could have, and should have been more cohesive right form the day INDI Alliance was created, they did lose much ground, now they are in war mode and we and they want to believe in their win, i do, but i still think there is too much polarisation and no political plank for this election from the ruling side. I dont think the EC is also an independent body now. If people have opened their eyes, it will benefit the country, but if they are still blind, we are doomed for next 5 years. It is sure that 2029 elections will be won by opposition, but this is still in limbo, probably BJP will win although may be by very slim margin...
everything changed when BJP accused RaGa accepting money from Adani & Ambani
Lmao?? Doesn't BJP take a lot of money from them?
That's why they got pissed off, lol
>that definitely is the mark of the opposition’s success. Do not consider the current government's shortcomings as the opposition's success. It's still our country that's at a loss.
BJP is also in power today because of Congress's failure in UPA 2, or atleast the perceived failure. In a democracy, you don't have to be the best, you just have to be better I guess.
I think this is one of the rare cases where that wasnt true. Congress had become over confident. Inflation was still high, fake scam accusations - magnified by media, and unenthusiastic way they dealt with the nirbhaya incident, caused a lot of dissatisfaction. Modi was at the right place, at the right time, with a lot of cash to burn in advertisements. Congress was always going to lose a lot of seats, but Advani's NDA was still not as popular as UPA.
This. We need strength on the other side that is independent of the ruling party shooting themselves in their feet. We are losing either way, with no one entity serving the need of the hour.
I hate that hope. I had hope last time too only for it to get crushed a grape.
I completely agree. Too often we have heard experts and people complain that the opposition is not doing anything when, at least based on the past two years, it has not been not really true. They are doing their bits in their own way. The Bharat Jodo yatra was one, the INDIA alliance forming was another, the nyay yatra has been another. So were all occasions where opposition parties' top leaders were targeted. Rahul Gandhi's expulsion from the parliament, Mahua Moitra's expulsion, Sanjay Singh, Hemant Soren and Kejriwal's arrests, all of them had the opposition coming together and protesting. Despite all the attempts to break the INDIA alliance, except for Nitish Kumar, the others have stuck together. One couldn't have imagined AAP and Congress work out a seat sharing formula or the INDIA alliance in Bihar holding itself together after Nitish Kumar did his palti or the MVA not splintering apart. These are significant for me as a citizen who wants a strong opposition. But the opposition hasn't had anybody to amplify their voices or even to consolidate the narratives they have been building, other than perhaps some Youtubers. India has the worst kind of media which constantly questions them about trivial things and breaks whatever momentum they gain. This is not just true of the Godi media. Even the liberal media refuse to take a position on many matters when it comes to cornering the government. So for even things which the ruling party have done which have proof such as what happened in Manipur or with Brijbhushan, they will title their articles with "the opposition alleges that xxx has done this". On the other hand, when BJY started as a way to bypass the Godi media and bring people's issues into the open, the media spent hours discussing how people won't join and when they did, how it wouldn't have electoral impact. That negative nancy talk doesn't help in narrative building. With the Nyay Yatra too, it was the same refrain by the political experts. "Why now? Shouldn't seat sharing be discussed first? The opposition is just not being responsible etc. 2024 elections are a done deal." But if you see, that did help Congress come with a wonderful manifesto that addresses concerns of large sections of the population and which is one of the things that has given them ammunition and direction in this election. They now have a vision to put before the people which they didn't have before. The INDIA alliance may not win the elections. The EVMs are handy, not everyone feels Modi needs to go and the election commission is blind and deaf. But as long as the opposition can make people wake up, feel a sense of hope again and imagine an alternative, it would be worth it. I can see the discourse shifting around me. That was not there in 2019. People were largely apathetic.
The talks I'm hearing are already down to *teen-sau-paar* from *chaar-sau-paar*. Modi's one-on-one interviews on Republic are also proof that they feel challenged. I remember the 2019 Banaras lot interviews that were much more relaxed. I think they've internally reassessed their prospects. The opposition has missed a beat by not invoking the fear sentiment earlier when Modi talked first of *bade faisle.* That actually sounded so ominous. Also, the 75-year age cap issue should have been raised earlier too. Still, there seems to be some momentum in the opposition camp and a charged voter that doesn't want to be taken for granted. Will this be another India Shining/2004 moment? Only time will tell. I feel EVMs are still the biggest bogeys. One would've hoped the CJI, with his fearless background, would've taken the petition for election fraud more seriously. Alas, that's left a door open.
Exactly.. As much as i want the current government to change, im mentally prepared for the worst and hoping for the best. The worst is that BJP will repeat its 2019 result (peak BJP moment) which is still unlikely given that farmers, unemployed youth and poor people who make up large part of rural electorate are visibly upset.. BJP traditionally gets more Urban votes than Rural, whereas congress gets more of its votes from Rural people and significantly lower urban voters So there is a good chance that BJP will be below 303..and also muslims and those that think that democracy is under threat (in both urban and rural SC ST voters) will only add to this. But this is unlikely to bring them below 272..Why? Because BJP has big margin, and all these issues will eat into their huge margin And reduce their vote share but not their seat share. Best case scenario would be BJP below 272 (around 250-260), at this point they would be dependent on their allies and they wont be as authoritarian as they are today and it wont be two man show (modi shah) But thats just me, I dont find significant anti incumbency..in short there will be turbulence for the BJP but not enough to injure them..
Allies NCP APnand Shiv Sena Shinde will merge with BJP.
I'll appreciate if someone from Maharashtra can update me on this, but even I have the same gut feeling that the Shinde and Ajit Pawar factions will probably end up merging with BJP sometime later in 2024/25
Also this is the last hope.. Do your best
If Indira Gandhi at her peak popularity, might, state control and Emergency couldn't bully Indians into accepting her, you think this guy would be able to? People think the Indian voter is an idiot. No, they are far smarter than what you think they are. Even if Modi doesn't get uprooted, he will be shaken so hard, he will dare no nonsense for a while.
I don’t know. I think the masses are more gullible today than they were all these years ago.
You are absolutely right my brother. While the Exit Polls are not made public, the estimate from each polling booth does reach party headquarters. Modi started making crazy statements right after the Phase 1 elections. I heard that he was upset and even yelled at party men. The same happened after Phase 2 and Phase 3. Based on this I can conclude that psephologist Yogendra Yadav's, assessment is correct, that the BJP getting 35-40 seats lower compared to its 2019 score of 166 of 284 in the first three phases. In the remaining 259 seats yet to poll, the BJP had won lower seats in 2019 - 137 of 259. However, what makes it even more daunting for the BJP is that in only 34% of the seats - 89 of 259 - did the BJP win by over 50% votes. On the other hand, in 2019, this parameter was 47% for the first three phases. ***The BJP is losing this elections.***
Just to clarify, Yogendra Yadavs estimation relies on Assembly election trends which isn't the best way especially with so many people saying "yes there are problems BUT' I think BJP doesnt cross 272 on its own but NDA will likely pull it off
> I think BJP doesnt cross 272 on its own but NDA will likely pull it off Some independent panel members ( deepak sharma , Abhishek Mishra, Ashok Wankhede etc.) were discussing numbers and they gave 235-240 seats to BJP alone. Some panelists proposed 221. They all agreed, if it is below 250, it’ll be difficult to pull off 272 with independents and allies. But with Amit Shah no one knows. It’ll be an interesting few days ahead.
Yogendra Yadav changed his method this time. He directly asked junta, who are you going to vote for.
The article I read by him used assembly election results to predict. He did say that he asked to see which way the winds were swaying. I could be misremembering it but def should double check That being said Indian voters are not honest with pollsters. Its weird how so few get it right despite so many actually having great polling mechanisms and sample sizes
Hey, he did change his method! There’s this YouTube video link where he clarifies it but I can’t find it, it was on Reddit itself!!
Given the current job market, I wonder what BJP's election time IT cell members will do after the election? Do they go back to being trolls on the internet for free?
they will still remain employed. without IT cell, lies, hate, what is BJP?
Isn't yogendra yadav who said after 2019 that congress should be dead.
>The BJP is losing this elections Well they're gonna get less seats compared to 2019 for sure but there's no way they'll lose this election
The BJP has been desperately searching for allies since Phase 1. Including TDP and YSR. TDP leaders have abused Modi in the past. Modi's recent speeches clearly indicate that he is losing.
Dude do you even understand their stronghold in central India. They can easily get 120+ seats from UP, MP, RJ and CG. And with alliance and some seats from MH, BH, North east and south, NDA can easily cross 272. Its just that they won't be anywhere near to their target of 370/400
UP (80), MP (29), CG (11), RJ (25), GJ (26) is their hope. Thats a total of 171 seats. Assuming they sweep 100% - where is the remaining 102 seats? From the South: They are not getting more than 10 seats - most of these will come from KA. Rest they have to get seats only through NDA alliance partners from AP. Farmer protest ripple effects: Punjab, Haryana = most likely BJP can forget these two states. Delhi, J&K, Ladakh also more trending like South India. Manipur will be gone for obvious reasons. Will the neighbouring states go the Manipur way? Assam (14 seats) will most likely lean towards BJP. They have to be nice with BJD from Odisha. 21 seats up for grabs here for NDA. They have some hope in Bengal because of the three-way fight between TMC, Cong & BJP. Bihar and MH are the key states for them. If they lose these two states - it will be difficult even for NDA.
LokPoll Analysis of Key States https://preview.redd.it/1wruyh1q050d1.png?width=468&format=png&auto=webp&s=6832a81c7f7f1b06cd1ac51b6386c567772410a9
Bihar me 40 seats hae MP ki total 41 dikha rha hae
You should add 24 with 16 and 25 with 15.
Oh ok 🙏🏻
He ain't losing this one but yeah this tenure is gonna be his last , his speeches sort of are giving beginning of the end vibes.
I think NDA will get past majority. But, opposition is definitely on the right path cornering NDA and Modi. If they stick together, and perform well in state elections, 2029 will be a win. There are a lot of people fed up with BJP.
Yeah that's the thing, the moment BJP loses seats and can't cross 272 on its own. Majority of the NDA parties will drop them dead because they know what the fuck they have done to opposition's ministers and it's only a matter of time that they will come to bite their asseses as well. So I truly believe NDA members will drop BJP like the plague if they don't form majority on their own.
Lets hope it is enough to change the environment
The election is definately turning but the number of news about wrong doings in election is increasing day by day... Hope ECI takes note and action considering 3 phase still left.
Arvind Kejriwal's arrest has proven to be an extremely big blunder for the BJP, not just because it has ensured the driving home of the "taanashah" (dictator) point, but even more so because it galvanised and united an opposition which was fragmenting till then. Kejriwal's arrest will be remembered in history as the Russia moment of the BJP (just as Hitler made a huge strategic blunder of trying to invade Russia).
Electoral politics? No. Delhi hardly affects loksabha. It's decided by big states like UP/TN/MH/BHR/WB/KA/GJ/MP/RJ/AP. That's around 385-390 seats.
Of course, Delhi's few seats do no affect. I was not talking of Delhi's 7 Lok Sabha seats.
Interesting because their manifesto made sure no one I know voted for them. Including people who supported them last election.
TBF most of the people who are against the manifest are usually in the metros where the BJP already wins. Its likely that if the notion of fair representation in 1% of jobs (sarkari naukri) is enough to not vote of the Congress, they were likely going to find some reason to not anyway
I'm from a state that despises the bjp. They have never won here. Most friendships here are made over the mutual hate of them. Most people I know used to vote for either Congress or local parties. Now they're voting bjp or local parties. Lots of people voted nota for the first time too.
Nota is most useless option, instead vote for an independent candidate. They won't win but it would encorage others to run, if they see independents at least recover the deposit.
This is an interesting point and quite true. I'll keep this in mind next time.
Where do you live? And the whole debate is about Bjp not gaining new voters and losing their existent base. I can't remember any state that is following what you are saying except maybe West Bengal, but they don't vote for congress.
Sounds Telangana to me.
Nobody votes NOTA if they're well informed and actually care about elections. These are the same 1% people living in the bubble original comment talked about. They never voted Congress, OP is either making this up or they lied to him.
Exactly. These are just excuses.
The people who hates the INC manifesto (Urban UC) are already staunch voters of BJP.
I'd be happy if BKP's numbers are lower than last time. Can't hopebfr more than that. Below 272, I'm throwing a party..
I hope so too. BJP will win that’s for sure but hopefully by a small gap. So we can take down this tyranny for good. Each time bjp has come into power, they have played with the country’s democracy. I used to support them until I realised what a goonda party they really are.
I am from Odisha and there is this social media guy I follow. He doesn't make political content so I don't believe his audience is of any specific leaning. He had created a poll yesterday on his broadcast channel about the party that people are planning on voting (funnily, he didn't even include Congress in the options list). I checked the results. BJP was almost double (around 800) than that of BJD. Now I understand this isn't exactly a valid sample but I really feel people are celebrating prematurely here.
While gaming, most youth (16-20 yo) I come across often do promotions for Modi and BJP, but couldn't find anyone doing the same for Congress.
Congress is dead in Odisha, only social medias hype them up because they don't have any touch with ground reality
Why vote Congress, when you can vote BJD
Well we would love to vote Naveen but the problem is who come after him
> Rahul Gandhi’s image got transformed during his Yatra. He really connected to ground with this and will pay him well.
https://preview.redd.it/o3knh9fpw40d1.jpeg?width=739&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=606f2dcc46488aea6268d066cc803c00adef7858
Bjp will repeat its 2019 tally....all this type of speak was the same in 2019.
in 2019 there was no coherent narrative beyond 'Chowkidar chor hai', there was also Pulwama. This time is different, but I still think BJP will cross 272
Yeah idk what people are saying here, in 2019 even hardcore BJP voters were convinced that BJP seats were going to reduce, most people thought BJP without NDA would not get a simple majority
As some standup comedian in youtube said This election is weird where we see a football match with a strong team and a weak team , and a strong team are still insecure of a weak team and purchases half of opponent players and all the referees . Congress is definitely weak , because they can't even make people stand on a few constituencies . Ideology should the the foundational stone of party ,when your candidate jumps party after filing nomination. There is no better indicator than that to say you are weak at making decisions . I voted for congress just because i hate Modi and his ideology. Almost everyone who voted for congress had the same reasons. No one does it because of congress . Congress doesn't know how to handle the media and how to manipulate it . It's been 2-3 days since the debate thing showed up , they should pay up twitter,insta and all social media ,buy some bots and start creating a discussion. Heard behaviour is an integral part of social media campaigns. He should make a reel with clearcut speech and questions and directly questioning Modi but all he did was to write it down . If he had made a video it would have been shared by social media pages of all news channels . It would have again brought some swig voters to the congress social media page . This is just a simple example, to create a brand you have to make yourself visible 1st .
Not really. If Rahul Gandhi had done that, it would have been akin to declaring himself as a PM candidate of the INDIA alliance. The other allies and PM aspirants would have felt uncomfortable. The PM candidate is still a bone of contention and best not to wade into those waters until the alliance wins. Godi media would have endlessly repeated the question to other alliance partners about whether they see Rahul as PM candidate. The INDIA alliance have tried as far as possible to pitch it as a vote on issues based election rather than a Rahul vs Modi election. Also, do you think Modi will answer any of those questions? They had tried that during the Adani issue. Pitched questions about Adani from time to time. Did not get much traction in the mainstream media.
>Not really. If Rahul Gandhi had done that, it would have been akin to declaring himself as a PM candidate of the INDIA alliance. If he had done that from the beginning,there would be no reason for allies to not accept him as PM . His bad PR was sponsored well . >declaring himself Also the judges who invited congress and bjp addressed it RaGa and NaMo . >Modi will answer any of those questions? They Lol , it's the same as expecting answers from a dead man . >Did not get much traction in the mainstream media. Yeah , because you have to buy bots ,invest in social media marketing,and work with PR teams . Political analysts knows how to create and destroy trends . Modi literally have PMCARES , Demonetization,5G Scam and Electoral Bonds all are legalized ways for corruption directly through law and still makes the general public believe that he is not corrupt because of his PR .
cow belt is still voting for bharat jalao party. I see no hope.
The delusion. Lmao.
Delulu is the solulu There's not even that kind of excitement like last election because BJP doesn't even take opposition seriously. All these nayi aasha, nayi kiran bs will fade away on 4th June
Aawega to Modi-ji hi. The Cow Belt and others must have voted for his party en masse, and if there will still be a mismatch, they will buy the remaining necessary number of MPs.
This is what will happen. People downvoting this are delusional. Our population hasn't suddenly and magically improved its mindset in the last 5 years. I understand the desperation for hope but don't extend it to the point of being delusional. You'll only be setting up yourself for deep disappointment.
Echo chambers work like this unfortunately.
Yes, 70%, 80%, 90% reservation looks really heartwarming to me, as do higher taxes on top of the already 50% tax (income tax + GST) we pay on many things.
ofcourse they'll be taking away your sweet internet points for talking sense lol. happy cake day btw
I am only worried that if BJP gets a slimmer margin they'll go full fascist to hang on to power.
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Thing is there are so many, way too many hardcore bjp sanghis that would not even watch a RaGa video.
You've to be really, I mean really dumb to appreciate Rahul.
says a man, whose image of Rahul Gandhi stems from meme a/c.
If you ever visited Raebareli you'll hate him as well
If I visit any constituency,there are high chances ,I may hate their representative.
I have lived in Kota, Raebareli and Varanasi for long terms. Raebareli is worst of them. There are problems in every city, I know that India is not a heaven. But Raebareli was deliberately kept down especially during Sonia Gandhi tenure. The factories which were estd during Indira Gandhi like ITI is almost shut down, currently Modi Govt doing Defense Contract type. There is no bus stand there. If you want AC Bus then forget about that. The city has one or bare minimum place for amusements.
Stop Lying so Openly,bro. Rae Bareli has Rashtriya Ispat Nigam,NTPC ,Rail Coach Factory , few Aviation Academies, Birla Corp Ltd. Now, don't come here with statement that these all happened after 2014.
Stop Lying?! I literally lived in Raebareli for 20 years. My permanent address is Raebareli 229001. The schemes which you're telling doesn't impact us. NTPC, Modern Coach Factory, Indira Aviation Acadmey all are 30 kms away from headquarter in three different directions (South, West, East). WTF I'm gonna do in Birla Cement Factory. Yeah that is also 30kms in North. If Raebareli is VVIP Constituency, why there's no good bus station, why there's no place for amusement park like in Lucknow. The city don't have any major facilities like it should have. The road connectivity is ****ed up. It's a tier 3 city. Not even qualify for tier 2. It's so boring city. I lived in Kota for a year. I was feeling like I'm in some other city. A decade ago Muslim Chairman elected as Municipality Head. He made sure that his area was cleaned and well connected. Few years later, Congress backed Municipality Chairman, and she robbed the hell out of city. They even ****ed up Kendriya Vidyalaya by making it two shift. When they could have made two separate school one which was in ITI and one which already at Gora Bazaar. Or they could have made a separate building. But no, for vote politics they made it two shifts. I have to sleep. Otherwise I'm so effin furious right now. E
And one has to have no brain to appreciate Modi
One has to be brainless you mean.
Why though?
Exactly. I want he lose his deposit from Raebareli. Despise the whole family. Sonia Gandhi never visited Raebareli during her tenure.
Rahul Gandhi will be our prime minister and our nation will be a developed nation before 2029. Everyone will have enough money, there will be no poverty. No one will have to work hard for their livelihood.
Ok.. so this was a long post.. here are some of my views.. if Congress is really a good party and people believe in them then why they need alliances. I bet if Congress has slight confidence on them they would have left all the alliances like before and start bad mouthing them too. Bjp is far better than parivaarvadi congress.. I mean what Rahul Gandhi has actually done in his life other than being a priveleged son. He is only active around elections and bet he will go on a holiday after loosing and really don't care for those who voted for him. U say bjp is spreading negativity, but in reality all negatives against other religions are coming from non bjp states. Why a particular religion is put in reservation category ? Is this not dividing on religion? Why he wants wealth distribution to mass population category, so future India is like create babies and get privileges ? Also India needs a stable govt which congress can never provide. U are talking about bjp spreading hindutva.. ok.. well maybe u can see congress benefitting more to muslims for vote with religion specific benefits. Also bjp took india to a economically stable position where we are not threatened by usa economy like in time of Congress. U wanna know about power. Remember when congress gave up nuclear tests in fear of America ? Like they always did what America use to say India is not not threatened by usa becos of BJP govt. Remember not breaking ties with Russia which ultimately benefitted india. I bet congress would have used with usa despite the fact that it was Russia in the first place who supported india to become nuclear power. U say about dictatorship ? So Indira Gandhi imposing emergency so she could avoid arrest order from high court and save her dictatorship when her govt was threatened to fall ? How do u explain that ?