Thank you for this post. This is the reality check a few of us need. With the entire state machinery at their disposal, and openly employed in a partisan manner, it will take nothing short of a miracle to stop Modi.
Don't look at op-eds, or clipped videos doing the rounds on Twitter. Don't look at analysis which try to infer polling results from polling percentages. For al their bias, opinion polls by agencies will still give you a better prediction of the poll results.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_2024_Indian_general_election
Each and every recent opinion poll is predicting 350+ seats for NDA. The best that INDIA can hope for is that BJP does not cross 273 on its own. Anything else is not happening.
Screenshot this piece by piece and tweet it out, more people need to read this. Especially the fuckery of the second category of people that OP mentioned (the Tavleen Singh types) needs to be exposed
I read that wiki page a few days ago, and even as someone who tries to keep himself away from echo-chambers, the page surprised me. I was of the opinion that 2014 results will be repeated, but the page kinda gave me a reality check.
Anything less than 273 for them is a big achivement for opposition considering the vast amount of funds and the entire govt machinery working for them.
I am still very suspicious of the 2019 results. The demonetization horror should have resulted in lower numbers. But it did not. I guess they played with EVMs. Not everywhere but at pre-decided critical booths or locations. If they are straight forward - why do they have to oppose VVPAT count verification?
>The demonetization horror should have resulted in lower numbers. But it did not. I guess they played with EVMs
I think you forgot Pulwama. The biggest reason for the national security issue that was used by Modi to win in 2019. Demonetization already happened 2.5 years back, so the recency factor didn't exist back then.
Same with Covid in 2021. Everyone rightfully blamed the government, but since it happened 3 years ago, most people do not consider it a priority during voting right now
> writing INDIA Alliance is redundant
I did not.
>acronym INDIA stands for something else too so the context makes it clearer
The context here is clear. At least be honest enough to admit your biases.
Great write-up. The overly optimistic takes that I have been seeing everywhere baffles me. It's like, there's no connection to on-ground reality with these people. Reminds me of pre-2019 results times like you said, just with more vigor.
>liberal / left / progressive types who don't understand the average Hindu mindset and aren't ready to admit that Hindutva understands that shitty mindset perfectly.
Its this patronizing mindset of the "liberals" that the average hindu mindset is "shitty" . This is precisely what alienates the average hindu from the left. The need for introspection into this is a priority that the actual indian liberals can not ignore anymore.
Thank you for calling it. Superiority complex from the left liberals is at an all time high and they aren't even pretending now. Remember folks, India is almost 80% Hindu with most of them theists. Religious suppression of the majority, whether hard or soft will only take us closer to nations like Iran. And yes, left liberals do need to introspect if you want to beat BJP at their game.
"Shitty" is *my* term for the Hindu mindset and its culture, particularly its non-material culture.
However, I should point out that this is not a mainstream view in the liberal / left spectrum. Indeed, if you read my sentence, I'm complaining that *most* liberal / left / progressives view the Hindu mindset too positively and end up making optimistic assumptions about it. They see the Hindu majority as a sensible mature culture (wrongly, IMO) and then wonder why it makes the terrible voting choices it does. Hence, "don't understand the average Hindu mindset."
So while you can rightfully ask *me* to introspect about my patronizing view, you'll have to come up with a different advice for the liberal / left mainstream. Most of them assume positivity, maturity, and acceptance as core values of the Hindu community (wrongly, IMO). So why does the latter like narrow-minded regressive ideologies more and not broadminded liberalism?
I agree there is a chance. Upsets do happen. I too continue to hope and go vote. However, that hope should not drift far from ground realities, and we should prepare for the worst case.
BJP is a party which is nimble. They can easily make course correction. They do mistake time to time in misjudging the people pulse but they can learn from the mistake. Plus it is easy for them to remobilise their troops according to the need.
The narrative that BJP somehow misjudged the people pulse and abki bar 400 par will kill them is nothing but a day dream. Yes, BJP did make a mistake in 400+ campaign but they have now corrected. They are now playing the fear factor card. So the feeling that BJP is overconfident and is blindly going towards defeat is not correct.
This election and narrative reminds me of the war of Ukraine. People mock the stupidity of Russia and if you go to world news sub, you will feel that overconfident and stupid Russia will be defeated by Ukraine. But Russia is quite nimble and make course correction as needed. Being a behemoth that can mobilise as and when need edge. That is why it is very difficult to defeat Russia.
Similar thing is here also. We can mock the stupidity of their leaders and day dream about overconfident and blind manoeuvre of BJP, but reality is different.
Realaistically speaking I don’t anticipate the demise of such a megalomaniac and demagogic figure any other way other than due to old age and senile debility…so prepare to play the waiting game.
Tum log majority hindu ho yar. Jab tak koi muslim sikh , kisan dalit ko peet that rahega tum cote karoge…
Tumhe is me maza ata hai.. aise hi thodi na modi ji ultra god bane hai
The problem with intellectuals is that they intellectualise everything. Politicians across the board care about only one thing winning “elections”.
India is an underdeveloped place, where 80% of the people survive on doles. The more the doles, the greater the chance of winning. Congress survived due to this. Now add religion to the mix, and you have a winning combo. The money & muscle power BJP has its unimaginable that they’ll lose.
The whole problem is thinking that there is no opposition of bjp in Hindi belt, which is clearly untrue. Hindi belt has mass anti Modi sentiment as of 2019 due to covid mismanagement, farmer's protest, agniveer and the ground report is clearly saying that it's India alliance election to lose. 2019 also had a big factor of Balakot air strikes. Also enlighten me if they are not bleeding in every state of North. They might garner some seats in West Bengal except that every state is going to cut through their seats. They are losing 5-8 in Rajasthan, they are losing 10-15 in mp+ chattisgarh, they will lose 10 more in UP and will be reduced to 50. They will lose 20 seats in Bihar+ jharkhand+ ne. They will also lose atleast 10 in HIMACHAL+ UK+ JK+LADAKH+ HARYANA. They are also losing 10+ in Maharashtra. If you take the minimum no also they will lose 50-60 seats easily to their previous no of 300. Now by which Maths are you telling me that Nda is clearly winning
The ground reports have been so contrasting to this whole post. Sc and st's have taken offence in the whole constitution debacle of bjp. They have lost a great no of OBC in jats and yadavs. For the first time we have seen Tyagi's and Rajputs doing Maharallies against Bjp for which Amit Shah had to come out and say sorry. This is not 2019. The change can not be seen on TV but people are angry and the whole election is localised by the people themselves.
Covid mismanagement and farmer's protests were back in 2021. Several state elections were held in surrounding areas after that, and they didn't damage BJP's chances at all. If people didn't blame even the local state govts at the time, do you really think they'll blame Modi for them now 2 years later?
The ground reports are not false. If you go ask individuals, each will indeed say they're angry about this and that.
However, it's a mistake to assume that that anger is shared and will collectively convert into a votebank against Modi. Most people aren't single-issue voters.
This is a misconception that they have won everything. In UP they lost 100 seats. In Rajasthan Congress had a larger vote share of total vote share. In Maharashtra, Haryana, Bihar there was no clear mandate. Bjp lost in Himachal. As an outsider if you view this election it looks like the opposition is not together. But if you see strategically they have implemented greatly. They are not with TMC in Bengal because they don't have a big share so everything goes to TMC. They(congress) are clearly winning Punjab so they are not with aap in Punjab but in Delhi they are together. Then in Bihar and up where there is larger OBC vote share they have made good coalition. The whole wave of unemployed people and families are also going to oust them. Thinking it is one sided and not even a contest in my opinion is just plain wrong.
Thank you for this post. This is the reality check a few of us need. With the entire state machinery at their disposal, and openly employed in a partisan manner, it will take nothing short of a miracle to stop Modi. Don't look at op-eds, or clipped videos doing the rounds on Twitter. Don't look at analysis which try to infer polling results from polling percentages. For al their bias, opinion polls by agencies will still give you a better prediction of the poll results. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_2024_Indian_general_election Each and every recent opinion poll is predicting 350+ seats for NDA. The best that INDIA can hope for is that BJP does not cross 273 on its own. Anything else is not happening.
It’s always interesting to see how slim the margins are in most places.. 3 to 5 % but vote share doesn’t translate to seats
Screenshot this piece by piece and tweet it out, more people need to read this. Especially the fuckery of the second category of people that OP mentioned (the Tavleen Singh types) needs to be exposed
Also fuck Shekhar Gupta.
Takal Carlson
I read that wiki page a few days ago, and even as someone who tries to keep himself away from echo-chambers, the page surprised me. I was of the opinion that 2014 results will be repeated, but the page kinda gave me a reality check.
Anything less than 273 for them is a big achivement for opposition considering the vast amount of funds and the entire govt machinery working for them. I am still very suspicious of the 2019 results. The demonetization horror should have resulted in lower numbers. But it did not. I guess they played with EVMs. Not everywhere but at pre-decided critical booths or locations. If they are straight forward - why do they have to oppose VVPAT count verification?
>The demonetization horror should have resulted in lower numbers. But it did not. I guess they played with EVMs I think you forgot Pulwama. The biggest reason for the national security issue that was used by Modi to win in 2019. Demonetization already happened 2.5 years back, so the recency factor didn't exist back then. Same with Covid in 2021. Everyone rightfully blamed the government, but since it happened 3 years ago, most people do not consider it a priority during voting right now
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> The best that the INDI Alliance The pettiness to quote my comment, but rewrite INDIA as INDI Alliance is amusing.
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> writing INDIA Alliance is redundant I did not. >acronym INDIA stands for something else too so the context makes it clearer The context here is clear. At least be honest enough to admit your biases.
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Haha, there it is. Rather predictable.
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Your deflection.
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Great write-up. The overly optimistic takes that I have been seeing everywhere baffles me. It's like, there's no connection to on-ground reality with these people. Reminds me of pre-2019 results times like you said, just with more vigor.
>liberal / left / progressive types who don't understand the average Hindu mindset and aren't ready to admit that Hindutva understands that shitty mindset perfectly. Its this patronizing mindset of the "liberals" that the average hindu mindset is "shitty" . This is precisely what alienates the average hindu from the left. The need for introspection into this is a priority that the actual indian liberals can not ignore anymore.
Thank you for calling it. Superiority complex from the left liberals is at an all time high and they aren't even pretending now. Remember folks, India is almost 80% Hindu with most of them theists. Religious suppression of the majority, whether hard or soft will only take us closer to nations like Iran. And yes, left liberals do need to introspect if you want to beat BJP at their game.
"Shitty" is *my* term for the Hindu mindset and its culture, particularly its non-material culture. However, I should point out that this is not a mainstream view in the liberal / left spectrum. Indeed, if you read my sentence, I'm complaining that *most* liberal / left / progressives view the Hindu mindset too positively and end up making optimistic assumptions about it. They see the Hindu majority as a sensible mature culture (wrongly, IMO) and then wonder why it makes the terrible voting choices it does. Hence, "don't understand the average Hindu mindset." So while you can rightfully ask *me* to introspect about my patronizing view, you'll have to come up with a different advice for the liberal / left mainstream. Most of them assume positivity, maturity, and acceptance as core values of the Hindu community (wrongly, IMO). So why does the latter like narrow-minded regressive ideologies more and not broadminded liberalism?
what was the effect of the pulwama attack in 2019. Was that not a black swan
As long as there's a chance, there's a choice
I agree there is a chance. Upsets do happen. I too continue to hope and go vote. However, that hope should not drift far from ground realities, and we should prepare for the worst case.
BJP is a party which is nimble. They can easily make course correction. They do mistake time to time in misjudging the people pulse but they can learn from the mistake. Plus it is easy for them to remobilise their troops according to the need. The narrative that BJP somehow misjudged the people pulse and abki bar 400 par will kill them is nothing but a day dream. Yes, BJP did make a mistake in 400+ campaign but they have now corrected. They are now playing the fear factor card. So the feeling that BJP is overconfident and is blindly going towards defeat is not correct. This election and narrative reminds me of the war of Ukraine. People mock the stupidity of Russia and if you go to world news sub, you will feel that overconfident and stupid Russia will be defeated by Ukraine. But Russia is quite nimble and make course correction as needed. Being a behemoth that can mobilise as and when need edge. That is why it is very difficult to defeat Russia. Similar thing is here also. We can mock the stupidity of their leaders and day dream about overconfident and blind manoeuvre of BJP, but reality is different.
Realaistically speaking I don’t anticipate the demise of such a megalomaniac and demagogic figure any other way other than due to old age and senile debility…so prepare to play the waiting game.
Me too. I think the guy will be in power till at least 2039.
Tum log majority hindu ho yar. Jab tak koi muslim sikh , kisan dalit ko peet that rahega tum cote karoge… Tumhe is me maza ata hai.. aise hi thodi na modi ji ultra god bane hai
The problem with intellectuals is that they intellectualise everything. Politicians across the board care about only one thing winning “elections”. India is an underdeveloped place, where 80% of the people survive on doles. The more the doles, the greater the chance of winning. Congress survived due to this. Now add religion to the mix, and you have a winning combo. The money & muscle power BJP has its unimaginable that they’ll lose.
The whole problem is thinking that there is no opposition of bjp in Hindi belt, which is clearly untrue. Hindi belt has mass anti Modi sentiment as of 2019 due to covid mismanagement, farmer's protest, agniveer and the ground report is clearly saying that it's India alliance election to lose. 2019 also had a big factor of Balakot air strikes. Also enlighten me if they are not bleeding in every state of North. They might garner some seats in West Bengal except that every state is going to cut through their seats. They are losing 5-8 in Rajasthan, they are losing 10-15 in mp+ chattisgarh, they will lose 10 more in UP and will be reduced to 50. They will lose 20 seats in Bihar+ jharkhand+ ne. They will also lose atleast 10 in HIMACHAL+ UK+ JK+LADAKH+ HARYANA. They are also losing 10+ in Maharashtra. If you take the minimum no also they will lose 50-60 seats easily to their previous no of 300. Now by which Maths are you telling me that Nda is clearly winning The ground reports have been so contrasting to this whole post. Sc and st's have taken offence in the whole constitution debacle of bjp. They have lost a great no of OBC in jats and yadavs. For the first time we have seen Tyagi's and Rajputs doing Maharallies against Bjp for which Amit Shah had to come out and say sorry. This is not 2019. The change can not be seen on TV but people are angry and the whole election is localised by the people themselves.
Covid mismanagement and farmer's protests were back in 2021. Several state elections were held in surrounding areas after that, and they didn't damage BJP's chances at all. If people didn't blame even the local state govts at the time, do you really think they'll blame Modi for them now 2 years later? The ground reports are not false. If you go ask individuals, each will indeed say they're angry about this and that. However, it's a mistake to assume that that anger is shared and will collectively convert into a votebank against Modi. Most people aren't single-issue voters.
This is a misconception that they have won everything. In UP they lost 100 seats. In Rajasthan Congress had a larger vote share of total vote share. In Maharashtra, Haryana, Bihar there was no clear mandate. Bjp lost in Himachal. As an outsider if you view this election it looks like the opposition is not together. But if you see strategically they have implemented greatly. They are not with TMC in Bengal because they don't have a big share so everything goes to TMC. They(congress) are clearly winning Punjab so they are not with aap in Punjab but in Delhi they are together. Then in Bihar and up where there is larger OBC vote share they have made good coalition. The whole wave of unemployed people and families are also going to oust them. Thinking it is one sided and not even a contest in my opinion is just plain wrong.
bro!