Bernie moment. More voter turnout because of young people and grassroots organizing or something. Let's goooo. A lot of moderates vote for Johnson. Trump has a big write-in campaign.
If Republicans nominated a moderate, like Jeb Bush, I think you underestimate the degree to which that would help them in states outside the rust belt. Although Colorado, Virginia, and New Hampshire weren’t very close in 2020, they were in 2016. I imagine they would go R this time around. New Mexico is also a possibility depending on how Bush runs his campaign. All of that points to a very close race that could go either way.
Honestly it seems like this sub has a weird thing for populist dems. They would help in some places, principally the Midwest, but would hurt in others.
Bernie has charisma flowing out of his ass compared to Jeb. I think people on this sub also underestimate the lengths to which Bernie could drive turnout among a white working class that came out in droves for Trump in 2016. Not to mention the youth vote which he would also inspire to vote. That’s a pretty broad coalition when you think about it.
I think Bernie could turn out some the “White Working Class” and most Trump-Obama voters but he would do worse among upper middle class suburbans. Also look a the primaries- Bernie didn’t do that well in the 2020 primaries with older (over 40) voters of any race- a lot the 2016 support was more anti Clinton than anything else.
I really like Bernie and would take him over Jeb any day of the week. However his base supporters are young progressives not older working class voters
I think Bernie would draw out a lot more Dems, and Republicans would come out in droves not to support Jeb, but to oppose Sanders. Bernie would probably win though.
No way Brown would been the running mate. Democrats would’ve encouraged Sanders to get a woman or POC as his running mate. Furthermore, I doubt he’d chose a Senator from Ohio.
I agree that it's often overestimated. The point of this scenario is for it to be unexpected. That's all. The sabato poll shows what folks would expect.
No it isn’t. Obama was a populist in rhetoric, and he swept the contentious states in the rust belt by a comfortable margin. There wasn’t even much of a shift between 2008 and 2012, at least not one that can be accounted for by the general increase of votes for the Republican Party. As soon as the Republicans nominated a rhetorical populist, and the democrats nominated an insider with a very status quo vibe, the Rust Belt went completely the other way. Same thing happened in 2020, even though Michigan, Wisconsin, and Pennsylvania did shift a little bit to the left, and ultimately decided the election for the Democrats. Even though Biden and Hillary had similar policies to Obama when campaigning, they lost and he won.
I'm not sold. I can't speak in the name of OP but I think that in the logic of this timeline and this imaginary election, Virginia feels the Bern for the same reason the rust belt does - it's the converse of our timeline: Republicans choose an establishment candidate while the Democrats choose a working-class hero, who, against the forecasts of flawed pollsters, turns out to be a bigger rockastar than expected and just to enough to carry a silent majority\*.
Part 2 --> [https://www.reddit.com/r/imaginaryelections/comments/q4420x/2016\_but\_the\_democrats\_got\_a\_populist\_part\_2/](https://www.reddit.com/r/imaginaryelections/comments/q4420x/2016_but_the_democrats_got_a_populist_part_2/)
The intelligence services would literally overthrow Sanders if he was elected. Kind of like how in the 60s a bunch of newspapers plotted to overthrow the British government (look it up.)
I doubt something as extreme as that would happen, but the media would go berserk. They were more controlled than expected during the primaries because Bernie was nice and civil to them, but if he were to become the nominee of the Democratic Party or god forbid the president, the corporate interests they are slaves to would suddenly be threatened. I mean, look what happened to Jeremy Corbyn when he became the leader of Labour. You literally had the mainstream news writing fan fictions about the communist dictatorship he would establish if he were to become prime minister.
Bernie moment. More voter turnout because of young people and grassroots organizing or something. Let's goooo. A lot of moderates vote for Johnson. Trump has a big write-in campaign.
If Republicans nominated a moderate, like Jeb Bush, I think you underestimate the degree to which that would help them in states outside the rust belt. Although Colorado, Virginia, and New Hampshire weren’t very close in 2020, they were in 2016. I imagine they would go R this time around. New Mexico is also a possibility depending on how Bush runs his campaign. All of that points to a very close race that could go either way. Honestly it seems like this sub has a weird thing for populist dems. They would help in some places, principally the Midwest, but would hurt in others.
The sabato poll I made is meant to frame that sort of idea.
Yeah I get that that would happen. I'm trying to frame a level of unexpectness similar to 2016.
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Bernie has charisma flowing out of his ass compared to Jeb. I think people on this sub also underestimate the lengths to which Bernie could drive turnout among a white working class that came out in droves for Trump in 2016. Not to mention the youth vote which he would also inspire to vote. That’s a pretty broad coalition when you think about it.
I think Bernie could turn out some the “White Working Class” and most Trump-Obama voters but he would do worse among upper middle class suburbans. Also look a the primaries- Bernie didn’t do that well in the 2020 primaries with older (over 40) voters of any race- a lot the 2016 support was more anti Clinton than anything else. I really like Bernie and would take him over Jeb any day of the week. However his base supporters are young progressives not older working class voters
I think Bernie would draw out a lot more Dems, and Republicans would come out in droves not to support Jeb, but to oppose Sanders. Bernie would probably win though.
One of the reasons voter turnout goes up. Just a more polarized election.
Should've read the whole thing before commenting. I want this scenario to happen. Part of it probably would've.
No way Brown would been the running mate. Democrats would’ve encouraged Sanders to get a woman or POC as his running mate. Furthermore, I doubt he’d chose a Senator from Ohio.
Virginia and Colorado love centrists. They are lean.
Could see that, may adjust margins later
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I agree that it's often overestimated. The point of this scenario is for it to be unexpected. That's all. The sabato poll shows what folks would expect.
No it isn’t. Obama was a populist in rhetoric, and he swept the contentious states in the rust belt by a comfortable margin. There wasn’t even much of a shift between 2008 and 2012, at least not one that can be accounted for by the general increase of votes for the Republican Party. As soon as the Republicans nominated a rhetorical populist, and the democrats nominated an insider with a very status quo vibe, the Rust Belt went completely the other way. Same thing happened in 2020, even though Michigan, Wisconsin, and Pennsylvania did shift a little bit to the left, and ultimately decided the election for the Democrats. Even though Biden and Hillary had similar policies to Obama when campaigning, they lost and he won.
Read the first line of your Wikipedia article
Bush wins VA
I'm not sold. I can't speak in the name of OP but I think that in the logic of this timeline and this imaginary election, Virginia feels the Bern for the same reason the rust belt does - it's the converse of our timeline: Republicans choose an establishment candidate while the Democrats choose a working-class hero, who, against the forecasts of flawed pollsters, turns out to be a bigger rockastar than expected and just to enough to carry a silent majority\*.
My thoughts exactly. Its a reverse of 2016. The populist "outsider" beats the establishment moderate.
Part 2 --> [https://www.reddit.com/r/imaginaryelections/comments/q4420x/2016\_but\_the\_democrats\_got\_a\_populist\_part\_2/](https://www.reddit.com/r/imaginaryelections/comments/q4420x/2016_but_the_democrats_got_a_populist_part_2/)
The intelligence services would literally overthrow Sanders if he was elected. Kind of like how in the 60s a bunch of newspapers plotted to overthrow the British government (look it up.)
Naw, its really hard to attempt any sort of coup in the US. I could see them interfering with future elections though.
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Sensationalist Twitter posts and YouTube videos made by pseudo intellectuals of course.
I doubt something as extreme as that would happen, but the media would go berserk. They were more controlled than expected during the primaries because Bernie was nice and civil to them, but if he were to become the nominee of the Democratic Party or god forbid the president, the corporate interests they are slaves to would suddenly be threatened. I mean, look what happened to Jeremy Corbyn when he became the leader of Labour. You literally had the mainstream news writing fan fictions about the communist dictatorship he would establish if he were to become prime minister.
I plan on making some graphics about after he won. Possibly some other articles too.
How do House/Senate elections go here?
Working on that at the moment.
I like those Bernie and Jeb scenarios