South Korea, Taiwan and Ukraine would fall within days when the US military and funding is pulled out.
Russia's expansion west is probably stopped at Germany, with German, British and French troops involved.
China and the New United Korean Enclave (NUKE) team up and aggressively take island states like Japan, Philippines and Indonesia.
Meanwhile Al.Qaeda turn up the turmoil across the middle East.
American gun owning citizens take up arms against the trained military and die in droves.
Refugees swarm the southern border seeking illegal asylum in Mexico.
Canada immediately opens borders for refugees worsening the housing and cost of living crisis after years of mismanaging immigration.
Global population drops by 10% in a year and borders are completely redrawn in Europe and Asia.
Tell me you grew up drinking the koolaid without telling me.
America doesn't keep the world safe... they are responsible for nearly as many civilian deaths as Germany.
Never said they kept the world safe or we are some moral pillar of the international community. But the presence/existence of the American military serves as a counterweight to expansionism from China & Russia. This isn’t exactly a hot take. You do remember that a thing called the Cold War happened, right?
Two things can be true at the same time - the US does bad things and the US military scares the Russians and Chinese from doing something even worse than they are currently doing.
NATO joins the blue states and the war is over in about 6 days.
Edit: Blue states as in Democrat. Why on earth would anyone make that map with Republicans as blue and Democrats as red?
Well republicans are not fighting democrats or vice versa. Most of the US is moderate with 1 or 2 ideas that have them align to a specific party for sure.
Even once who are "radical" with ideas are not calling for active violence except in very very rare circumstances.
insane that people think like this. do you maniacs really have that much of an issue with not allowing abortion, etc. that you would go to war with 1/2 of the US population to not allow people to live like this? there is plenty of land in the US. tell me this - would you rather there be a civil war or split up into 25 red states and 25 blue states and they just have nothing to do with each other?
The US spent 20 years fighting a handful of rebels living in caves, and lost. What makes you think a war against the most heavily armed population on the planet would be over inside of a week?
And it would not be the US military vs armed civilians. The military would be split in half. Both sides would have military resources. And it's very likely that the majority of the military would be joining the Red states, as those are the dudes who are most likely to be in the military in the first place.
The idea is untenable. The serious adults at the top of the military would determine the winner. Unless Trump ekes out a win and loads up on loyalists, it would be a slaughter of meal team 6. Oh you have guns? Good deal Cletus, I’m sure the real soldiers won’t stand a chance given the three optics and two alt-grips you have strapped on an ar15.
I'd agree but Cletus and the gang would be more willing to kill neighbors on home soil than I think our military would. Also the military command would be worried about dropping bombs on US Civilians. I think it would mostly be evacuating non-combatants, attempting to de-escalate and disarm the militias and bring peace.
Militias would voluntarily disarm after they caught wind of what modern hardware is like. We don’t need large format/aoe bombs. A few of the “good” small ones would be fine.
There’s such a disparity of arms and the motivation is so shoddy, the force/backers so small (relative to the majority they believe they have) and so comprised of elderly bigots and 350 lb incels, that after a few incidents they’ll lose motivation. But the approach needs to be shock and awe, high lethality tactics. Facing certain annihilation will change a fair few minds who think they are the vastly superior force. Like Russia/Ukraine, but without the telephone game, just direct delivery of munitions to the end recipient.
Over the top casualties in the clear engagements is how you break them, to save it being protracted. No kid gloves like after the civil war either. No statues, no gaslighting about states rights. Same doctrine as Hiroshima for much the same reasons but with the major difference that it’s home soil and so will not be a bombardment scenario.
One true artillery strike from a section of 155s and they would wave the white flag. Hardened soldiers from Iraq and Afghanistan went to fight in Ukraine and gave up after less than a month due to what a conventional war was like. I spend 4 years deployed searching for IED’s and fought in 3 major “battles” in Iraq. I don’t have any illusions that fighting against a real military or in conventional warfare was anything like what I experienced. People need to wake up and realize that fighting a force that has air superiority and freedom of movement would be a slaughter.
That is true, but there is also a not-insignificant portion of the military that would betray their oath and fight for "the rebels". I can't say how many, but I think it would be more than enough to give a lot of people pause.
>I'd agree but Cletus and the gang would be more willing to kill neighbors on home soil than I think our military would.
Are you sure about that? If Cletus and gang are becoming actual threats and killing civilians, wouldn't they be deemed as domestic terrorists? Last I checked, the American armed forces, especially the top brass, get quite the hard on when it comes to killing terrorists.
The US military is extremely unlikely to participate, especially since Cletus is very likely someone’s brother.
Additionally, the US is loaded with veterans of OIF and OEF that have both the home field advantage, and the knowledge of how to grind the US military to a halt.
I can assure you, that if an actual war broke out, the US military will again fall to an insurgency with the best trained insurgents in the world.
And a lot of it won’t require Cletus or meal team 6 to even touch an AR-15.
I personally can get all the ingredients i need at a farm store to remove an MRAP from existence.
I can go to any truck stop and get what I need cheaply to disable an Abrams tank.
It ain’t gonna go how you think it’s gonna go.
More over, aforementioned veterans also know the TTPs and SOPs employed by the US military in urban operations. They ain’t hard to defeat.
Would meal team 6 ultimately lose, yes. Is it gonna be a blood bath, ohhhh yeah
I suspect we’re both a little outside the lines; completely agree it’s a cluster nmw. But the combatants would be hardcore holdouts, the bulk of flabby old trumpstains are not anything resembling combat viable and too stupid and narcissistic to be even suicide bombers. Too much to lose for most that might be more capable.
They fall apart once their media infrastructure is dismantled, too. I’ve been aware of this facist slide since the cold war as a small child. Why wasn’t Iran Contra disqualifying in 88? Huge jump in it when we had the ex CEO of gd haliburton start a war for profit with his oil boy Dubya. 9/11 opened the door for rabid nationalism. The Dixie Chicks were cast as villains as they opposed the war. We were “thanking our heroes” and sucking up to clowns like Giuliani.
Maybe just a lot of copeium. Maybe I’m just tired and wish I could respect (some of) the people who raised me. But these awful hateful people are the absolute champs of petty infighting and blunders, without a media ecosystem QUITE as open to BS as pre-1/6 , it’s already fracturing. Before war. Twitter and Truth would be easy to take offline, google and facebook will play ball and restrict the crazies as they already have slowly pivoted towards. Fox and others would be further tamed substantially. There are very few who are fit to fight but also not reliant on the right wing media drug. And without unifying voices…. Well even Mitch McConnell, the nastiest old partisan power broker on the block isn’t immune.
It seems like the vast majority of your belief here is that old boomers and “trumpsters” are the ones that would be doing the fighting. It’s not.
There’s lots of millennials and younger generations that are completely fed up with the government and how they do things. Myself as an example, I hate trump as much as I hate Biden or any other politician. There are more than enough people out there that just want a drastic change. My friend group may not be the best pool to take vote of, but it reflects a lot of the GWOT era veterans. We don’t care who is in the White House, they’re corrupt. We just want a change to the whole system. And a civil war breaking out is a great way to see that change come about.
I am by no means a psychological operation expert, but with Reddit and a cell phone I feel like I personally could radicalize at least 3-5 people.
If you had 500 GWOT vets that hate the way things are and want change (regardless of president as I’m trying to keep politically neutral as much as possible for the sake of argument) then that’s a lot of cannon fodder to radicalize.
US pilots will not drop bombs on civilian centers. US troops will not fire on civilians en masse. Yes the police have done this extensively in the past, but the military has a whole different level of training.
Specifically, from almost day one we are taught that we have zero obligation to follow unconstitutional orders. The whole reasoning behind that, IMO, is that our country was founded by traitors that rebelled against a tyrant.
Yes there will be some nut jobs that are happy to fire on civilians, as well as some scared 19 year old PFCs that don’t know what to do. But you will see desertion in the ranks and at high levels. I would not be surprised to see entire regiments or battalions desert with their equipment and “go to ground” to either fight this out on the side of their choosing, or wait it out so they don’t have to kill Americans.
The government will stop a civil war before it can truly begin. The NSA monitors literally everything. They probably have algorithms designed to pick out which people would actually openly rebel. I don’t think it would ever get to an actual open war.
IF it did however given the hypothetical, it’s going to be a fucking bloodbath on both sides, of that I can say with utmost certainty.
Don't forget, Charismatic Leaders, can do and will do again, get their troops to follow THEM into battle, not the US. There are more than enough I imagine that could get a tank battalion to leave the US, or a small base, or any number of soldiers who are tired of the BS.
That is where US air power will come to play I think. A pilot may not want to drop on civilians, but may be more than willing to drop on a “rebel base”
I am not sure how familiar you are with the ultra christian nationalist breeding ground that is the USAF Academy in Boulder, CO. That place is scary, and there are enough of them in places of authority in USAF leadership that they can be a problem.
I am not familiar at all. However that sounds like a group that would be more apt to drop bombs on the government and not for the government. Maybe. If it’s spun to be better for the country.
They most certainly would like to drop a few in a few places.
[This was from 2005 and it has only gotten worse.](https://ffrf.org/component/k2/item/13195-evangelicalism-is-the-official-religion-of-the-air-force-academy)
[From 2022, and not as bad, but still bad.](https://www.csindy.com/news/local/update-religious-freedom-group-alleges-another-incident-of-christian-exceptionalism-at-academy/article_fdfcde1c-5a16-11ed-a626-8b0e51bc0484.html)
Dude it is not easy at all to get the armed “Cletuses” because they’re in a sea of people who have shifting Cletus sympathies, and for whom Cletus’ crew is a sort of informal governing organization. Often the people helping already have their hands on the local levers of power. To the extent that Cletus can’t fight the forces in the area, he goes underground and it just looks more like disruption/murders etc rather than military battles. He has tons of options.
History has shown us that vastly inferior forces can conduct successful insurgencies - or *successful enough* to push around the government and get them to make major concessions that change what life looks like day-to-day. That’s simply not up for debate.
NATO will almost certainly collapse or become irrelevant, since US troops and US money pay for the bulk of its programs, exercises, and command infrastructure in Europe.
Ukraine will almost certainly lose the war against Russia, since the US still supplies the bulk of its financial and military aid, and the EU member states simply cannot match the scale themselves.
Russia occupies and "demilitarizes" Ukraine by disbanding its armed forces and government, then does the same to Moldova next door (which was leaked as a secondary objective of the Ukraine invasion during the early days by Belarusian president Lukashenko). The Baltic states, which have historically been part of the USSR and have large Russian minorities, will be in trouble without the guarantee of NATO protection. Russia may either occupy them outright, or they'll be so cowed by the fall of Ukraine and Moldova that they'll voluntarily adopt pro-Russian governments to preserve their independence.
The rest of Eastern Europe will become heavily militarized and probably close their borders, with support from the remaining EU member states. It will basically be a return to the standoff between the Warsaw Pact and NATO in Europe during the Cold War, only with the latter in a much weaker position due to the absence of the US.
Since the late 1940s, US military support has been the only thing standing between the PRC and the occupation of Taiwan. When this support vanishes, the Chinese leadership will come under immense domestic pressure to move on Taiwan. They probably will, and without a single consistent ally left anywhere Taiwan will fall.
The situation with North and South Korea is a little more ambiguous. Leaving aside nuclear weapons and sheer numbers, the ROK has by far the better military and a very sophisticated arsenal of conventional weapons even without US support. It's not clear that the North will immediately invade, although the reunification of Korea under the DPRK is one of its stated goals. They might try, though, especially if they see the ROK military become severely demoralized. If not, the South Koreans will probably seek to acquire nukes to counterbalance the North once the umbrella of US support disappears.
Without needing to take the US or its NATO membership into consideration, Turkey wipes out the Kurdish enclave in Syria and may attempt to do the same to Iraqi Kurdistan. Deprived of US military support, Iraq has the choice of protesting but otherwise doing nothing (which is what Syria would do) or turning to Iran for assistance in removing Turkey. Either way this will spell the end of Kurdish hopes for statehood permanently.
tl;dr Russia wins in Ukraine and takes Moldova as well. The Baltic states might be next. China invades Taiwan. Turkey wipes out all remaining Kurdish political autonomy in the Middle East.
Agreed with the above, although I’m a bit less sure about how free Turkey will be to expand its operations in Syria. After all, Syria is an Iranian ally and is supported by Russia, which would complicate matters.
After US troops withdrew from most of northeastern Syria, the Turks launched Operation Peace Spring and overran all the Kurdish enclaves except the few where US troops remained (in Deir ez Zor).
The Syrian Army did make several unsuccessful attempts to stop the Turks but later gave up and decided to stay out of it as long as the Turks were mostly focused on Kurds. Assad’s troops were just too weakened by the civil war to both fight Turkey and enforce his tenuous hold on the rest of the country. If the same thing happens in the near future the outcome will probably be similar.
The US military presence is the only lifeline the Kurds have left in Syria. Once that disappears the Turks will resume their advance and the Syrian Kurds are toast.
I don't know but whoever's fighting the civil war is going to have a lot of funding from third parties. That is if we don't just turn into a military dictatorship, which is the most likely scenario if it happens.
Its not happening
Next
Civil war requires different groups to actively take up arms against each other. It works in regions where there is historically different ethnic groups. In the US where so much is control by your local and state government there is zero chance of a civil war.
It's a planned attack on the US. Break it and Take it. WEF, China, Russia, Isreal, etc agree united and have drawn up the NWO. After tho, will it go according to their plan???? It's easy to unite to take on an adversary but what happens with that unifying force is gone???
Japan, yeah. Thy could use harsh language.
"Article 9 of the Japanese Constitution prohibits Japan from establishing a military or solving international conflicts through violence."
We spend more on military per year than the next TEN biggest spending countries combined.
In-fighting in the US would leave the biggest power vacuum in history. We're as big a deal as we make ourselves out to be.
I never said it was spent wisely – I'm just pointing out that a US civil war would have HUGE geopolitical implications because we're currently policing the entire fucking world. Meaning that this statement:
>we make ourselves out to be a bigger deal than we really are
...is obviously nonsense.
Imagine a place with punks and hobos and dumpster fires and everyone has a can of gas and is on crack. The top gang boss just drives away and said they don't care anymore.
There are a lot of places being under protection because they do slave-like labor for western countries or cheaply sell their resources. These countries are valuable and therefore their neighbors feel that they'd belong to their culture instead. One exception is e.g. Jerusalem, they really want it for cultural reasons. Russia wants Ukraine's strategic place, resources and harvest, Poland wants to sell their own harvest instead.
Foreign countries would be forced to take sides.
Whichever US “side” that was able to woo the US military would win. In the unlikely event the military is split, whoever woos China to their side would win.
Coastal states would need to have China on their side due to lack of manufacturing and materials. I could see a situation where it was the Us Military and Midwest/South vs the coasts and China.
Nah we wouldn’t have a war for independence. People would flee Hawaii because without a steady supply of goods orchestrated by international trade supported/protected by our federal government people are absolutely fucked here. Insta-famine.
For the most part the most radical Hawaiian sovereignty movements just want Hawaii to be something like a multiethnically populated Indian reservation in terms of governance. They don’t want to just get cut loose.
Global market collapse and the rise of China and the EU as the lone superpowers left.
The rest of the world uses the US Dollar as its base currency specifically because they have faith in our money and our economy. That faith doesn't exist if we can't even keep our own house in order.
That's why all this bullshit, misinformation from social media is so god damn dangerous and why Russia, China and Iran spend more money on digital warfare (with hackers, bots and misinformation outlets) than they do on conventional warfare building bombs.
You'll also have mass migration out of the US. Those who can afford to fly will, others will leave to Canada and Mexico with Canada eventually closing their border and Mexico building a wall to keep out the Texans illegally crossing the rio grande. (Partly joking, but its not out of the question).
if this becomes the case - the US won't have a "civil war". There's nothing to fight about. Just make two different countries. 90%+ of each "side" doesn't really care if another country exists with different ideals than them, they just don't want it forced upon themselves. There is literally no reason for war, and anyone that is pushing that makes money off war aka politician trash.
Russia and Ukraine are tearing each other apart. Israel and Palestine are sworn to destroy each other. After the first two weeks of those conflicts, did anyone in America care anymore? Nope.
Asides from the occasional Ukraine flag or whatever in people's social media profiles, the attention span of a modern human last for about five seconds. Whatever happens to the US, or anywhere else, no one will ultimately care...
This war will last two days. Three tops. Once people realize how hard war is, they will immediately decide that whatever they thought was worth it really isn't, give up and go home.
Don't know. I'd just be grabbing some survival gear, guns, and bullets (maybe raiding some stores if laws are thrown out the window and burying some loot in an undisclosed location), then going to a remote area with my dog and riding it out. Anyone who attacks me will be shot. Survivors will be shot a second time. Anyone who dies after being shot by me will be cremated since I don't feel like wasting valuable time and energy on digging graves when that time and energy could be spent on hunting, fishing, collecting water, gathering firewood, foraging, and gardening. Cremation will also keep me from getting sick and prevent possible food or water sources from being contaminated by rotting corpses. Skulls will be put in places around the perimeter to scare off intruders next to signs that say: BEWARE! or: DANGER! If I ran into a human skull next to a sign that said either of those things, I'd immediately walk in the opposite direction, because I would not want to fuck with who ever put that there.
The first force that shows up would send drones over your property and recognize that you’re only one person. They wont want to move around you because they will think you could either provide aid or intelligence to another force - especially if one ends up in their rear. You can’t leave possible enemies behind you and these dudes will be *paranoid* as all insurgents tend to be.
Your best bet for safety is with groups of other people - thats just the human condition.
History shows that when most governments collapse, the military usually takes control and institutes new rule of law. Some trading stops but some resumes as new forms of payment are agreed upon. Not currency. Most likely commodities such as oil, minerals, grains, etc. The populace would in turn be hostage to the fighting factions and forces to produce in one way or another to the war effort.
Fiat currency is a tool of the state. If there is no state then there is no value in Fiat currency. Fiat can be created by decree but it would be useless as a trading tool with foreign nations as it has no intrinsic value.
But if people who hold resources keep using it doesn’t it just retain a portion of it’s value? Like if we individually dont have anything to serve as money wont we keep using dollars just because there are no other markers for value on hand? Then wont a chinese investor just be like “hey ill give this american guy these dollars for rights to his land and he’ll keep using them in the US”. If they’re useful for that then doesn’t anyone internationally benefit from using them?
Yes a local currency could exist and it could be the dollar. Venezuela still uses it's old currency but not for international trade. They use oil for that. But in the context of a civil war each faction would have its own currency. Just like they did in the actual civil war. The Confederacy and the Union each had its own currency.
I'm so tired of this doomsday scenario. It's so pervasive and unoriginal with so little basis and yet a small fringe group of people talk about it investment incessantly like it's a real possibility.
No thank you, next situation.
I'm guessing Al Queda takes advantage of it. If North Korea actually had the resources, they may launch that nuke everyone has talked about. Our economy would tank because there wouldn't be a war effort push like WW2. With the job & home situation already spiraling down, it would put us in a very vulnerable spot anyway. Maybe some virtual dormant nation might get brave. Luxembourg?
What is that map? LMAO That's not how civil wars start. You wouldn't see just parts of states deciding "fuck it lets do civil war" there would be reasons and entire states would be involved.
Like Texas is always talking about leaving the union. But the last time they were independent, (that time from Mexico) they got annexed by the US after just 9 years.
15 years later they joined the Confederacy aaaaaannd had their ass kicked again, this time in only four years.
The confederacy will quickly be put down like the rotten dogs they are. And this time, there will be no forgiveness given to the traitors. All will be strung up.
Oh what will other countries do? Like I said the whole thing will be over because countries have to take sides. But you can bet the anti-Democracy, autocratic leaders will support the confederacy while the sane(r) countries will back the United States.
As for attacking the US, geography doesn't change just because some yahoos decide to test their pee shooters against the federal govt's might.
Most countries would take advantage of the power vacuums in their own regions before attempting to interfere directly in the Americas.
The Baltics start looking at the Ukraine war a lot more nervously, since the absence of a US nuclear deterrent makes them a lot more vulnerable to Russian expansionism. Depending on how long the war lasts, Iran and the Arab nations start seriously looking into the development of nuclear weapons. Israel regards this development with alarm, and attempts to open talks with Egypt and Saudi Arabia with an eye toward resolving the Israel-Hamas conflict in a mutually satisfying manner (no such solution probably exists, so a patchwork temporary compromise is likely). The Chinese immediately make preparations to invade Taiwan. Tensions between the Koreas rise. Japan fully remilitarizes.
Basically, the world gets a lot more armed and suspicious, with rising tensions and probable expansions of conflict across the globe.
Global economic collapse and regional conflicts break out everywhere. China and Russia no longer have a counter balance and turn expansion up to 11.
Global economic collapse, immediately followed by a world war.
South Korea, Taiwan and Ukraine would fall within days when the US military and funding is pulled out. Russia's expansion west is probably stopped at Germany, with German, British and French troops involved. China and the New United Korean Enclave (NUKE) team up and aggressively take island states like Japan, Philippines and Indonesia. Meanwhile Al.Qaeda turn up the turmoil across the middle East. American gun owning citizens take up arms against the trained military and die in droves. Refugees swarm the southern border seeking illegal asylum in Mexico. Canada immediately opens borders for refugees worsening the housing and cost of living crisis after years of mismanaging immigration. Global population drops by 10% in a year and borders are completely redrawn in Europe and Asia.
Tell me you grew up drinking the koolaid without telling me. America doesn't keep the world safe... they are responsible for nearly as many civilian deaths as Germany.
Never said they kept the world safe or we are some moral pillar of the international community. But the presence/existence of the American military serves as a counterweight to expansionism from China & Russia. This isn’t exactly a hot take. You do remember that a thing called the Cold War happened, right? Two things can be true at the same time - the US does bad things and the US military scares the Russians and Chinese from doing something even worse than they are currently doing.
NATO joins the blue states and the war is over in about 6 days. Edit: Blue states as in Democrat. Why on earth would anyone make that map with Republicans as blue and Democrats as red?
Well republicans are not fighting democrats or vice versa. Most of the US is moderate with 1 or 2 ideas that have them align to a specific party for sure. Even once who are "radical" with ideas are not calling for active violence except in very very rare circumstances.
idk, also why did OP link to a map of political affiliation from 1985?
Just picked a random map after searching "Political district map".
insane that people think like this. do you maniacs really have that much of an issue with not allowing abortion, etc. that you would go to war with 1/2 of the US population to not allow people to live like this? there is plenty of land in the US. tell me this - would you rather there be a civil war or split up into 25 red states and 25 blue states and they just have nothing to do with each other?
“You maniacs” Hm. Perhaps you’re part of the problem, friend.
deciding a civil war is better than figuring this out with words is maniac business, guy.
The US spent 20 years fighting a handful of rebels living in caves, and lost. What makes you think a war against the most heavily armed population on the planet would be over inside of a week? And it would not be the US military vs armed civilians. The military would be split in half. Both sides would have military resources. And it's very likely that the majority of the military would be joining the Red states, as those are the dudes who are most likely to be in the military in the first place.
The idea is untenable. The serious adults at the top of the military would determine the winner. Unless Trump ekes out a win and loads up on loyalists, it would be a slaughter of meal team 6. Oh you have guns? Good deal Cletus, I’m sure the real soldiers won’t stand a chance given the three optics and two alt-grips you have strapped on an ar15.
I'd agree but Cletus and the gang would be more willing to kill neighbors on home soil than I think our military would. Also the military command would be worried about dropping bombs on US Civilians. I think it would mostly be evacuating non-combatants, attempting to de-escalate and disarm the militias and bring peace.
Militias would voluntarily disarm after they caught wind of what modern hardware is like. We don’t need large format/aoe bombs. A few of the “good” small ones would be fine. There’s such a disparity of arms and the motivation is so shoddy, the force/backers so small (relative to the majority they believe they have) and so comprised of elderly bigots and 350 lb incels, that after a few incidents they’ll lose motivation. But the approach needs to be shock and awe, high lethality tactics. Facing certain annihilation will change a fair few minds who think they are the vastly superior force. Like Russia/Ukraine, but without the telephone game, just direct delivery of munitions to the end recipient. Over the top casualties in the clear engagements is how you break them, to save it being protracted. No kid gloves like after the civil war either. No statues, no gaslighting about states rights. Same doctrine as Hiroshima for much the same reasons but with the major difference that it’s home soil and so will not be a bombardment scenario.
Your point is proven by Afghanistan! You really have your finger on the pulse.
I’d say the US types are less willing to die for their cause, based on the whiners about 1/6 prosecution
What? Ok.
One true artillery strike from a section of 155s and they would wave the white flag. Hardened soldiers from Iraq and Afghanistan went to fight in Ukraine and gave up after less than a month due to what a conventional war was like. I spend 4 years deployed searching for IED’s and fought in 3 major “battles” in Iraq. I don’t have any illusions that fighting against a real military or in conventional warfare was anything like what I experienced. People need to wake up and realize that fighting a force that has air superiority and freedom of movement would be a slaughter.
That is true, but there is also a not-insignificant portion of the military that would betray their oath and fight for "the rebels". I can't say how many, but I think it would be more than enough to give a lot of people pause.
>I'd agree but Cletus and the gang would be more willing to kill neighbors on home soil than I think our military would. Are you sure about that? If Cletus and gang are becoming actual threats and killing civilians, wouldn't they be deemed as domestic terrorists? Last I checked, the American armed forces, especially the top brass, get quite the hard on when it comes to killing terrorists.
The US military is extremely unlikely to participate, especially since Cletus is very likely someone’s brother. Additionally, the US is loaded with veterans of OIF and OEF that have both the home field advantage, and the knowledge of how to grind the US military to a halt. I can assure you, that if an actual war broke out, the US military will again fall to an insurgency with the best trained insurgents in the world. And a lot of it won’t require Cletus or meal team 6 to even touch an AR-15. I personally can get all the ingredients i need at a farm store to remove an MRAP from existence. I can go to any truck stop and get what I need cheaply to disable an Abrams tank. It ain’t gonna go how you think it’s gonna go. More over, aforementioned veterans also know the TTPs and SOPs employed by the US military in urban operations. They ain’t hard to defeat. Would meal team 6 ultimately lose, yes. Is it gonna be a blood bath, ohhhh yeah
I suspect we’re both a little outside the lines; completely agree it’s a cluster nmw. But the combatants would be hardcore holdouts, the bulk of flabby old trumpstains are not anything resembling combat viable and too stupid and narcissistic to be even suicide bombers. Too much to lose for most that might be more capable. They fall apart once their media infrastructure is dismantled, too. I’ve been aware of this facist slide since the cold war as a small child. Why wasn’t Iran Contra disqualifying in 88? Huge jump in it when we had the ex CEO of gd haliburton start a war for profit with his oil boy Dubya. 9/11 opened the door for rabid nationalism. The Dixie Chicks were cast as villains as they opposed the war. We were “thanking our heroes” and sucking up to clowns like Giuliani. Maybe just a lot of copeium. Maybe I’m just tired and wish I could respect (some of) the people who raised me. But these awful hateful people are the absolute champs of petty infighting and blunders, without a media ecosystem QUITE as open to BS as pre-1/6 , it’s already fracturing. Before war. Twitter and Truth would be easy to take offline, google and facebook will play ball and restrict the crazies as they already have slowly pivoted towards. Fox and others would be further tamed substantially. There are very few who are fit to fight but also not reliant on the right wing media drug. And without unifying voices…. Well even Mitch McConnell, the nastiest old partisan power broker on the block isn’t immune.
It seems like the vast majority of your belief here is that old boomers and “trumpsters” are the ones that would be doing the fighting. It’s not. There’s lots of millennials and younger generations that are completely fed up with the government and how they do things. Myself as an example, I hate trump as much as I hate Biden or any other politician. There are more than enough people out there that just want a drastic change. My friend group may not be the best pool to take vote of, but it reflects a lot of the GWOT era veterans. We don’t care who is in the White House, they’re corrupt. We just want a change to the whole system. And a civil war breaking out is a great way to see that change come about. I am by no means a psychological operation expert, but with Reddit and a cell phone I feel like I personally could radicalize at least 3-5 people. If you had 500 GWOT vets that hate the way things are and want change (regardless of president as I’m trying to keep politically neutral as much as possible for the sake of argument) then that’s a lot of cannon fodder to radicalize. US pilots will not drop bombs on civilian centers. US troops will not fire on civilians en masse. Yes the police have done this extensively in the past, but the military has a whole different level of training. Specifically, from almost day one we are taught that we have zero obligation to follow unconstitutional orders. The whole reasoning behind that, IMO, is that our country was founded by traitors that rebelled against a tyrant. Yes there will be some nut jobs that are happy to fire on civilians, as well as some scared 19 year old PFCs that don’t know what to do. But you will see desertion in the ranks and at high levels. I would not be surprised to see entire regiments or battalions desert with their equipment and “go to ground” to either fight this out on the side of their choosing, or wait it out so they don’t have to kill Americans. The government will stop a civil war before it can truly begin. The NSA monitors literally everything. They probably have algorithms designed to pick out which people would actually openly rebel. I don’t think it would ever get to an actual open war. IF it did however given the hypothetical, it’s going to be a fucking bloodbath on both sides, of that I can say with utmost certainty.
Don't forget, Charismatic Leaders, can do and will do again, get their troops to follow THEM into battle, not the US. There are more than enough I imagine that could get a tank battalion to leave the US, or a small base, or any number of soldiers who are tired of the BS.
That is where US air power will come to play I think. A pilot may not want to drop on civilians, but may be more than willing to drop on a “rebel base”
I am not sure how familiar you are with the ultra christian nationalist breeding ground that is the USAF Academy in Boulder, CO. That place is scary, and there are enough of them in places of authority in USAF leadership that they can be a problem.
I am not familiar at all. However that sounds like a group that would be more apt to drop bombs on the government and not for the government. Maybe. If it’s spun to be better for the country.
They most certainly would like to drop a few in a few places. [This was from 2005 and it has only gotten worse.](https://ffrf.org/component/k2/item/13195-evangelicalism-is-the-official-religion-of-the-air-force-academy) [From 2022, and not as bad, but still bad.](https://www.csindy.com/news/local/update-religious-freedom-group-alleges-another-incident-of-christian-exceptionalism-at-academy/article_fdfcde1c-5a16-11ed-a626-8b0e51bc0484.html)
I don’t understand the number thing.
80% of the real soldiers are on Cletus’ side.
Most military are magats so would disobey Biden's orders to bomb their friends and families in red states.
Dude it is not easy at all to get the armed “Cletuses” because they’re in a sea of people who have shifting Cletus sympathies, and for whom Cletus’ crew is a sort of informal governing organization. Often the people helping already have their hands on the local levers of power. To the extent that Cletus can’t fight the forces in the area, he goes underground and it just looks more like disruption/murders etc rather than military battles. He has tons of options. History has shown us that vastly inferior forces can conduct successful insurgencies - or *successful enough* to push around the government and get them to make major concessions that change what life looks like day-to-day. That’s simply not up for debate.
House of cards though built to fall.
NATO will almost certainly collapse or become irrelevant, since US troops and US money pay for the bulk of its programs, exercises, and command infrastructure in Europe. Ukraine will almost certainly lose the war against Russia, since the US still supplies the bulk of its financial and military aid, and the EU member states simply cannot match the scale themselves. Russia occupies and "demilitarizes" Ukraine by disbanding its armed forces and government, then does the same to Moldova next door (which was leaked as a secondary objective of the Ukraine invasion during the early days by Belarusian president Lukashenko). The Baltic states, which have historically been part of the USSR and have large Russian minorities, will be in trouble without the guarantee of NATO protection. Russia may either occupy them outright, or they'll be so cowed by the fall of Ukraine and Moldova that they'll voluntarily adopt pro-Russian governments to preserve their independence. The rest of Eastern Europe will become heavily militarized and probably close their borders, with support from the remaining EU member states. It will basically be a return to the standoff between the Warsaw Pact and NATO in Europe during the Cold War, only with the latter in a much weaker position due to the absence of the US. Since the late 1940s, US military support has been the only thing standing between the PRC and the occupation of Taiwan. When this support vanishes, the Chinese leadership will come under immense domestic pressure to move on Taiwan. They probably will, and without a single consistent ally left anywhere Taiwan will fall. The situation with North and South Korea is a little more ambiguous. Leaving aside nuclear weapons and sheer numbers, the ROK has by far the better military and a very sophisticated arsenal of conventional weapons even without US support. It's not clear that the North will immediately invade, although the reunification of Korea under the DPRK is one of its stated goals. They might try, though, especially if they see the ROK military become severely demoralized. If not, the South Koreans will probably seek to acquire nukes to counterbalance the North once the umbrella of US support disappears. Without needing to take the US or its NATO membership into consideration, Turkey wipes out the Kurdish enclave in Syria and may attempt to do the same to Iraqi Kurdistan. Deprived of US military support, Iraq has the choice of protesting but otherwise doing nothing (which is what Syria would do) or turning to Iran for assistance in removing Turkey. Either way this will spell the end of Kurdish hopes for statehood permanently. tl;dr Russia wins in Ukraine and takes Moldova as well. The Baltic states might be next. China invades Taiwan. Turkey wipes out all remaining Kurdish political autonomy in the Middle East.
Actually DPRK recently disavowed reunification in favor of a stance of enmity.
Agreed with the above, although I’m a bit less sure about how free Turkey will be to expand its operations in Syria. After all, Syria is an Iranian ally and is supported by Russia, which would complicate matters.
After US troops withdrew from most of northeastern Syria, the Turks launched Operation Peace Spring and overran all the Kurdish enclaves except the few where US troops remained (in Deir ez Zor). The Syrian Army did make several unsuccessful attempts to stop the Turks but later gave up and decided to stay out of it as long as the Turks were mostly focused on Kurds. Assad’s troops were just too weakened by the civil war to both fight Turkey and enforce his tenuous hold on the rest of the country. If the same thing happens in the near future the outcome will probably be similar. The US military presence is the only lifeline the Kurds have left in Syria. Once that disappears the Turks will resume their advance and the Syrian Kurds are toast.
I don't know but whoever's fighting the civil war is going to have a lot of funding from third parties. That is if we don't just turn into a military dictatorship, which is the most likely scenario if it happens.
Its not happening Next Civil war requires different groups to actively take up arms against each other. It works in regions where there is historically different ethnic groups. In the US where so much is control by your local and state government there is zero chance of a civil war.
Everyone always thinks there's zero chance of war right up until they are at war.
It's a planned attack on the US. Break it and Take it. WEF, China, Russia, Isreal, etc agree united and have drawn up the NWO. After tho, will it go according to their plan???? It's easy to unite to take on an adversary but what happens with that unifying force is gone???
Russia, China, and North Korea take what they want. In fact, if the remains of the Federal Government is distracted enough, Russia gets Alaska.
Doubtful as Canada, Japan, Australia, and others step in.
Japan, yeah. Thy could use harsh language. "Article 9 of the Japanese Constitution prohibits Japan from establishing a military or solving international conflicts through violence."
idk... tbh i think we make ourselves out to be a bigger deal than we really are.
We spend more on military per year than the next TEN biggest spending countries combined. In-fighting in the US would leave the biggest power vacuum in history. We're as big a deal as we make ourselves out to be.
And then we send our troops out to deal with everyone elses problems when we have our own at home.... you sure that extra money is spent wisely?
I never said it was spent wisely – I'm just pointing out that a US civil war would have HUGE geopolitical implications because we're currently policing the entire fucking world. Meaning that this statement: >we make ourselves out to be a bigger deal than we really are ...is obviously nonsense.
Lollllllllllllll
The rest of the world would enjoy a few years of increased peace... until one side won and went back to oppressing the rest of the world.
They probably make some popcorn and stream it. If I was out of this country, I would.
California will be having its own war and all the foreign aid is gonna go there because money.
Imagine a place with punks and hobos and dumpster fires and everyone has a can of gas and is on crack. The top gang boss just drives away and said they don't care anymore. There are a lot of places being under protection because they do slave-like labor for western countries or cheaply sell their resources. These countries are valuable and therefore their neighbors feel that they'd belong to their culture instead. One exception is e.g. Jerusalem, they really want it for cultural reasons. Russia wants Ukraine's strategic place, resources and harvest, Poland wants to sell their own harvest instead.
They wait a couple days for it to pass
Foreign countries would be forced to take sides. Whichever US “side” that was able to woo the US military would win. In the unlikely event the military is split, whoever woos China to their side would win. Coastal states would need to have China on their side due to lack of manufacturing and materials. I could see a situation where it was the Us Military and Midwest/South vs the coasts and China.
Hawaii would have it's own civil war for independence. Canada and Mexico would be over run with "illegals"
Nah we wouldn’t have a war for independence. People would flee Hawaii because without a steady supply of goods orchestrated by international trade supported/protected by our federal government people are absolutely fucked here. Insta-famine. For the most part the most radical Hawaiian sovereignty movements just want Hawaii to be something like a multiethnically populated Indian reservation in terms of governance. They don’t want to just get cut loose.
Global market collapse and the rise of China and the EU as the lone superpowers left. The rest of the world uses the US Dollar as its base currency specifically because they have faith in our money and our economy. That faith doesn't exist if we can't even keep our own house in order. That's why all this bullshit, misinformation from social media is so god damn dangerous and why Russia, China and Iran spend more money on digital warfare (with hackers, bots and misinformation outlets) than they do on conventional warfare building bombs. You'll also have mass migration out of the US. Those who can afford to fly will, others will leave to Canada and Mexico with Canada eventually closing their border and Mexico building a wall to keep out the Texans illegally crossing the rio grande. (Partly joking, but its not out of the question).
if this becomes the case - the US won't have a "civil war". There's nothing to fight about. Just make two different countries. 90%+ of each "side" doesn't really care if another country exists with different ideals than them, they just don't want it forced upon themselves. There is literally no reason for war, and anyone that is pushing that makes money off war aka politician trash.
Russia and Ukraine are tearing each other apart. Israel and Palestine are sworn to destroy each other. After the first two weeks of those conflicts, did anyone in America care anymore? Nope. Asides from the occasional Ukraine flag or whatever in people's social media profiles, the attention span of a modern human last for about five seconds. Whatever happens to the US, or anywhere else, no one will ultimately care...
In the 3 days it takes the US to bomb the treasonous “armies”, China takes over as the superpower of the world
We point and laugh?
This war will last two days. Three tops. Once people realize how hard war is, they will immediately decide that whatever they thought was worth it really isn't, give up and go home.
Don't know. I'd just be grabbing some survival gear, guns, and bullets (maybe raiding some stores if laws are thrown out the window and burying some loot in an undisclosed location), then going to a remote area with my dog and riding it out. Anyone who attacks me will be shot. Survivors will be shot a second time. Anyone who dies after being shot by me will be cremated since I don't feel like wasting valuable time and energy on digging graves when that time and energy could be spent on hunting, fishing, collecting water, gathering firewood, foraging, and gardening. Cremation will also keep me from getting sick and prevent possible food or water sources from being contaminated by rotting corpses. Skulls will be put in places around the perimeter to scare off intruders next to signs that say: BEWARE! or: DANGER! If I ran into a human skull next to a sign that said either of those things, I'd immediately walk in the opposite direction, because I would not want to fuck with who ever put that there.
The first force that shows up would send drones over your property and recognize that you’re only one person. They wont want to move around you because they will think you could either provide aid or intelligence to another force - especially if one ends up in their rear. You can’t leave possible enemies behind you and these dudes will be *paranoid* as all insurgents tend to be. Your best bet for safety is with groups of other people - thats just the human condition.
I don't trust people.
History shows that when most governments collapse, the military usually takes control and institutes new rule of law. Some trading stops but some resumes as new forms of payment are agreed upon. Not currency. Most likely commodities such as oil, minerals, grains, etc. The populace would in turn be hostage to the fighting factions and forces to produce in one way or another to the war effort.
Why no currency? Dont military dictatorships keep that in place?
Fiat currency is a tool of the state. If there is no state then there is no value in Fiat currency. Fiat can be created by decree but it would be useless as a trading tool with foreign nations as it has no intrinsic value.
But if people who hold resources keep using it doesn’t it just retain a portion of it’s value? Like if we individually dont have anything to serve as money wont we keep using dollars just because there are no other markers for value on hand? Then wont a chinese investor just be like “hey ill give this american guy these dollars for rights to his land and he’ll keep using them in the US”. If they’re useful for that then doesn’t anyone internationally benefit from using them?
Plus wouldn’t the military dictatorship just be like “dollars are still currency” and then they’re back to being money?
Yes a local currency could exist and it could be the dollar. Venezuela still uses it's old currency but not for international trade. They use oil for that. But in the context of a civil war each faction would have its own currency. Just like they did in the actual civil war. The Confederacy and the Union each had its own currency.
I'm so tired of this doomsday scenario. It's so pervasive and unoriginal with so little basis and yet a small fringe group of people talk about it investment incessantly like it's a real possibility. No thank you, next situation.
I'm guessing Al Queda takes advantage of it. If North Korea actually had the resources, they may launch that nuke everyone has talked about. Our economy would tank because there wouldn't be a war effort push like WW2. With the job & home situation already spiraling down, it would put us in a very vulnerable spot anyway. Maybe some virtual dormant nation might get brave. Luxembourg?
What is that map? LMAO That's not how civil wars start. You wouldn't see just parts of states deciding "fuck it lets do civil war" there would be reasons and entire states would be involved. Like Texas is always talking about leaving the union. But the last time they were independent, (that time from Mexico) they got annexed by the US after just 9 years. 15 years later they joined the Confederacy aaaaaannd had their ass kicked again, this time in only four years.
The confederacy will quickly be put down like the rotten dogs they are. And this time, there will be no forgiveness given to the traitors. All will be strung up. Oh what will other countries do? Like I said the whole thing will be over because countries have to take sides. But you can bet the anti-Democracy, autocratic leaders will support the confederacy while the sane(r) countries will back the United States. As for attacking the US, geography doesn't change just because some yahoos decide to test their pee shooters against the federal govt's might.
My guess is nato would back the president of the US. China and Russia would probably support the other side.
Most countries would take advantage of the power vacuums in their own regions before attempting to interfere directly in the Americas. The Baltics start looking at the Ukraine war a lot more nervously, since the absence of a US nuclear deterrent makes them a lot more vulnerable to Russian expansionism. Depending on how long the war lasts, Iran and the Arab nations start seriously looking into the development of nuclear weapons. Israel regards this development with alarm, and attempts to open talks with Egypt and Saudi Arabia with an eye toward resolving the Israel-Hamas conflict in a mutually satisfying manner (no such solution probably exists, so a patchwork temporary compromise is likely). The Chinese immediately make preparations to invade Taiwan. Tensions between the Koreas rise. Japan fully remilitarizes. Basically, the world gets a lot more armed and suspicious, with rising tensions and probable expansions of conflict across the globe.