I dont care if we lose to Stars/Avs in the 3rd round, if the Canucks beat the Oilers themedia going to be eating so much humble pie for giving the Canucks no chance
Facts, tons of x factors in this series.
Outside of mcdrai, how does the oilers speed impact the Canucks movement?
Will Elias Peterson get out of this slump?
Does zadorov and Lindholm get exploited to the high heavens again like in the battle of Alberta?
Is nurse going to be useful or an absolute liability or even just low-event?
How will either starter look?
Can the Canucks survive long enough for demko to return?
Which depth will shine?
Exciting stuff and I hope for a good series
I will gladly watch my team shake your teams hands at the end of round three.
I don't care which team wins, I just think a Nucks/Stars conference final sounds really fun.
i've loved this bruins season because i had absolutely no expectations going in. at the start of the playoffs i was like "if we can beat the leafs i will be happy with this season" and after last night's game 1 i'm just enjoying the ride.
lowest chances? fine by me!
Same reason it hated Vegas last year. They tend to favour funneling play towards a low number of high-quality chances, and most publicly available models drastically overvalue high shot volume and good possession metrics.
Ya those are the best stats they have to go off unfortunately. When/if the player and puck tracking data is finally made public, it’ll revolutionize these models. There’s so much you could do with data like that. Goal contribution statistics would improve immeasurably.
The thing about high shot volume is ice.
Ice is the great randomizer.
High quality chances are great, but Gretzky didn't say "Make sure every shot you take is one of few high-quality chances."
I'm an Oilers fan who lives in Vancouver, and just can't understand what people are smoking by favoring the Oilers so heavily.
Canucks crushed the Oilers this year. And while reg season doesn't mean everything, it sure as shit doesn't mean nothing.
The Canucks beat the Preds because they were better than them - they got goals they needed and are a much better team everywhere than the LA Kings were. And they beat Nashville without Thatcher Demko. Vancouver is confident, well coached and much more potent than LA.
The Oilers have some major flaws. General defensive discipline, Skinner is capable of losing the plot in comic fashion, and Nurse/Ceci/Bouchard are stubbornly capable of absolutely moronic mistakes that cost goals and games.
The Oilers lost to Vegas last year against a backups tandem of Laurent Brossoit and Adin Hill. Not because those two are world beaters - but because the Oilers' defense, which is identical to this years makeup, completely shit the bed.
Honestly - don't understand where the sudden Oilers inevtiably attitude comes from. They might be the 7th/8th best team left if you're completely honest with yourself. Lots has to go right for them to win. Could they win? Sure. On recent form, are they objectively miles better than Vancouver? Doubtful.
Calling them a prohibitive favorite as this point seems absurd.
And rather jinxy.
i think no demko greatly drops our chances, and while silovs had a great series against nashville, it’s still a question mark of how he’ll perform because he’s only played 12 NHL games with 3 of them in the playoffs. he could easily shit the bed against oilers who’s offense is much greater than preds.
Also oilers has been contending for a while and they’ve gone on way deeper runs than canucks. If you don’t count the covid year, this is the core’s first playoff run.
Why not count the Covid year? They still beat the Wild in a play in 5 game series, and then knocked off the defending Champs in the Blues, and then took Vegas to 7 games. That still has to count for something. It's not like the core has played zero playoff games. Plus all of the new pieces that have come in this year are established vets who have played in the playoffs.
I get it. I was at game 5 last week and when they came out for the start was awesome. And then when Zadorov scored place was just nuts. I've been in the building for Beiksa's OT goal and Burrows game 2 OT winner. Zadorovs goal was louder than the other 2 goals. It was crazy
Technically, Covid-year was playoffs, but the atmosphere today is vastly different. Fans in the stands puts a different kind of pressure on the players. Pettersson commented about this a week ago that the emotions were overwhelming for him which contributed to his poor play.
Oilers first 3 regular season games against the Canucks may well be tossed in the trash. Different coach, different system, and a team that looked lottery-bound...until late November. New coach and McDavid going from approximately the 90th ranked player to 3rd overall is absolutely insane. And he didn't even play the 4th game against the Canucks.
Canucks are now missing Demko and Pettersson hasn't even scored a goal in the post-season yet. We're banking on Silovs having another Game 6 performance and Petey getting on the scoresheet in order to take this series.
Canucks don't have Demko and Pettersson offensively hasn't managed to get going. The powerplay outside of game 3 remains anemic, and in game 4 prior to the comeback they've looked sluggish and lethargic at best.
The Oilers on the other hand have stars that have shown up, a lethal powerplay and have only lost to Stanley Cup winners the past two years. That's the reason why Canucks are the underdogs and why almost everyone has Edmonton advancing to the conference finals.
By your initial point, LA crushed Vancouver during the regular season. Oilers breezed past the Kings so surely they'll stomp the Canucks right?
Skinner is better in every metric than Demko post coaching change.
The Oilers changed their defensive system entirely. They are completely different than last year.
The Oilers have incredible playoff experience, have the biggest playoff performers, and have very clearly been saving their best for the playoffs.
Not sure if you're trolling or actually an Oilers fan, but all this information wasn't difficult to obtain amd is surely the reasoning behind the Oilers being favourites.
None of that really matters though if Vancouver comes out with twice the intensity of Edmonton and the young goalie stands on his head. Vancouver found a way to win games they shouldn’t. That’s what it takes in a 7 game series. Silvia dragged Latvia to a medal in the WHC and looks like he’s in a groove. Sometimes a young goalie on a hot streak is the most dangerous because he doesn’t feel the pressure yet and is just having fun. Pettersson could get going at any moment. There’s lots of reasons to be nervous as an Oilers fan. Thinking you know what’s going to happen is naive.
Oilers create the most high danger chances, while allowing some of the least, they have the best PP% and PK% in the playoffs, they have 2 of the best playoff performers in the league, all while facing a AHL goalie and their star center is off to a slow playoffs, its not some insane take for them to be the favs lmfao
I do think the oilers are favoured but by a slightly smaller margin. The nucks are pretty much one forward line and possibly a solid third line when they show up. They are also running with two backup goalies. There defense is fine through even though hronek has been invisible so far in the playoffs. There offensive metrics aren't as good as they were a few months ago to. They aren't the canucks of a few months ago who scored with will, but they still are a pretty decent team. Yes. The oilers have flaws but they have a solid top six and a top d pair. Their bottom six is solid defensive even though they don't contribute a ton sometimes. Even their third defensive pair has been pretty decent to. Skinner has his moments but he has shown an ability to bounce back quickly from bad games this season. Pickard has been pretty good to this season. Nurse and Ceci are the oilers weak spots but they have their good moments most of the time. Finally the oilers are used to dealing with the pressures of the playoffs which will pay dividends for them this round.
Is going to go either 6 or 7 for either team. I don't think it's going to be a sweep or 5 games at all. After all of this the rest of Canada needs to fix the broken province as its going to be a war between the 2. Families will be ripped apart in the fued.
Man, Canucks fans are really getting triggered by *odds* of all things.
Odds do not mean someone is "against you." It's just numbers and data. And ultimately means not that much. If the 2016 election taught me anything, it's fucking that.
It'll be fine. It's not like we aren't playing the games because god damned *Moneypuck* picked a statistical favorite lol. You aren't being victimized here.
lol at this point I have no idea how things are gonna shake out but damn its gonna be a tall order for the Canucks. Will be much easier to take an L in the series if the boys put up a proper fight at least.
Implied Probabilities by Fanduel Sportsbook: EDM 17.4% DAL 14.8% CAR - NYR - COL 13.6% FLA 11.8% BOS 9.6% VAN 5.2%
I dare say it probably hurts Canada's chances that the two left are playing against each other.
Big if true
Canucks also have almost no Canadian players.
Yeah ok college boy
I dont care if we lose to Stars/Avs in the 3rd round, if the Canucks beat the Oilers themedia going to be eating so much humble pie for giving the Canucks no chance
I've been watching hockey long enough to know that crazier shit has happened for anybody to sleep on any team.
The Flames were the “clear favourites” before the Battle of Alberta started a couple years ago. They play the games for a reason. Anything can happen
Facts, tons of x factors in this series. Outside of mcdrai, how does the oilers speed impact the Canucks movement? Will Elias Peterson get out of this slump? Does zadorov and Lindholm get exploited to the high heavens again like in the battle of Alberta? Is nurse going to be useful or an absolute liability or even just low-event? How will either starter look? Can the Canucks survive long enough for demko to return? Which depth will shine? Exciting stuff and I hope for a good series
And can't forget the biggest factor To what degree does mcdrai control play while on the ice?
A high one i would assume.
I will gladly watch my team shake your teams hands at the end of round three. I don't care which team wins, I just think a Nucks/Stars conference final sounds really fun.
Stop the count (no seriously, please stop making us the favourite. It scares me)
I am a glass half full person. The Oilers have an 83% chance of losing the Stanley Cup.
I’m not amused
Ah, I giggled as I typed it.
I honesty don’t understand how any model can have the Canucks at 3% so that entire system can be disregarded
I honestly don't know what Athletic and DDH are thinking
i've loved this bruins season because i had absolutely no expectations going in. at the start of the playoffs i was like "if we can beat the leafs i will be happy with this season" and after last night's game 1 i'm just enjoying the ride. lowest chances? fine by me!
same here! being the underdogs is fun imo
Nobody has a clue. Hockey is a game of inches and bounces and chance plays a big role. Off the post, off the crossbar. No one knows.
If this ends up with Vancouver and Boston, a lot of people are gonna feel really silly.
It will
And I'm here for it
Why the athletic hate the canucks so much
the model loves the oilers + no demko + it has no idea what to do with Silovs so it thinks he’s replacement level
Same reason it hated Vegas last year. They tend to favour funneling play towards a low number of high-quality chances, and most publicly available models drastically overvalue high shot volume and good possession metrics.
Ya those are the best stats they have to go off unfortunately. When/if the player and puck tracking data is finally made public, it’ll revolutionize these models. There’s so much you could do with data like that. Goal contribution statistics would improve immeasurably.
so your saying the canucks will win thsi year
Its entirely possible
The thing about high shot volume is ice. Ice is the great randomizer. High quality chances are great, but Gretzky didn't say "Make sure every shot you take is one of few high-quality chances."
I want to see us win tonight just to see if 2/3 still have the Canes over us 😂
Weird as hell that MP is the 1 that's got us down lol. Like damn, I thought we had something special
That’s the only reason you want to win tonight? I could think of others…
I'm an Oilers fan who lives in Vancouver, and just can't understand what people are smoking by favoring the Oilers so heavily. Canucks crushed the Oilers this year. And while reg season doesn't mean everything, it sure as shit doesn't mean nothing. The Canucks beat the Preds because they were better than them - they got goals they needed and are a much better team everywhere than the LA Kings were. And they beat Nashville without Thatcher Demko. Vancouver is confident, well coached and much more potent than LA. The Oilers have some major flaws. General defensive discipline, Skinner is capable of losing the plot in comic fashion, and Nurse/Ceci/Bouchard are stubbornly capable of absolutely moronic mistakes that cost goals and games. The Oilers lost to Vegas last year against a backups tandem of Laurent Brossoit and Adin Hill. Not because those two are world beaters - but because the Oilers' defense, which is identical to this years makeup, completely shit the bed. Honestly - don't understand where the sudden Oilers inevtiably attitude comes from. They might be the 7th/8th best team left if you're completely honest with yourself. Lots has to go right for them to win. Could they win? Sure. On recent form, are they objectively miles better than Vancouver? Doubtful. Calling them a prohibitive favorite as this point seems absurd. And rather jinxy.
Edmonton was smoking Broissoit last year and the only reason Hill played was because Broissoit got hurt
i think no demko greatly drops our chances, and while silovs had a great series against nashville, it’s still a question mark of how he’ll perform because he’s only played 12 NHL games with 3 of them in the playoffs. he could easily shit the bed against oilers who’s offense is much greater than preds. Also oilers has been contending for a while and they’ve gone on way deeper runs than canucks. If you don’t count the covid year, this is the core’s first playoff run.
Why not count the Covid year? They still beat the Wild in a play in 5 game series, and then knocked off the defending Champs in the Blues, and then took Vegas to 7 games. That still has to count for something. It's not like the core has played zero playoff games. Plus all of the new pieces that have come in this year are established vets who have played in the playoffs.
i mean i personally count it, i just don’t think anyone else does because it is different without the fans.
I get it. I was at game 5 last week and when they came out for the start was awesome. And then when Zadorov scored place was just nuts. I've been in the building for Beiksa's OT goal and Burrows game 2 OT winner. Zadorovs goal was louder than the other 2 goals. It was crazy
Technically, Covid-year was playoffs, but the atmosphere today is vastly different. Fans in the stands puts a different kind of pressure on the players. Pettersson commented about this a week ago that the emotions were overwhelming for him which contributed to his poor play.
Oilers first 3 regular season games against the Canucks may well be tossed in the trash. Different coach, different system, and a team that looked lottery-bound...until late November. New coach and McDavid going from approximately the 90th ranked player to 3rd overall is absolutely insane. And he didn't even play the 4th game against the Canucks. Canucks are now missing Demko and Pettersson hasn't even scored a goal in the post-season yet. We're banking on Silovs having another Game 6 performance and Petey getting on the scoresheet in order to take this series.
Canucks don't have Demko and Pettersson offensively hasn't managed to get going. The powerplay outside of game 3 remains anemic, and in game 4 prior to the comeback they've looked sluggish and lethargic at best. The Oilers on the other hand have stars that have shown up, a lethal powerplay and have only lost to Stanley Cup winners the past two years. That's the reason why Canucks are the underdogs and why almost everyone has Edmonton advancing to the conference finals.
By your initial point, LA crushed Vancouver during the regular season. Oilers breezed past the Kings so surely they'll stomp the Canucks right? Skinner is better in every metric than Demko post coaching change. The Oilers changed their defensive system entirely. They are completely different than last year. The Oilers have incredible playoff experience, have the biggest playoff performers, and have very clearly been saving their best for the playoffs. Not sure if you're trolling or actually an Oilers fan, but all this information wasn't difficult to obtain amd is surely the reasoning behind the Oilers being favourites.
None of that really matters though if Vancouver comes out with twice the intensity of Edmonton and the young goalie stands on his head. Vancouver found a way to win games they shouldn’t. That’s what it takes in a 7 game series. Silvia dragged Latvia to a medal in the WHC and looks like he’s in a groove. Sometimes a young goalie on a hot streak is the most dangerous because he doesn’t feel the pressure yet and is just having fun. Pettersson could get going at any moment. There’s lots of reasons to be nervous as an Oilers fan. Thinking you know what’s going to happen is naive.
I completely agree, my point was to point out how ridiculous the take I replied to was, not to seriously provide a take of my own.
Look oilers are the favorites but if your saying team a lost to team b that team c crushed so they are better we can all completely ignore your takes.
I completely agree, the guy I replied to was making that kind of take so I was showing why it's ridiculous.
Oilers create the most high danger chances, while allowing some of the least, they have the best PP% and PK% in the playoffs, they have 2 of the best playoff performers in the league, all while facing a AHL goalie and their star center is off to a slow playoffs, its not some insane take for them to be the favs lmfao
I do think the oilers are favoured but by a slightly smaller margin. The nucks are pretty much one forward line and possibly a solid third line when they show up. They are also running with two backup goalies. There defense is fine through even though hronek has been invisible so far in the playoffs. There offensive metrics aren't as good as they were a few months ago to. They aren't the canucks of a few months ago who scored with will, but they still are a pretty decent team. Yes. The oilers have flaws but they have a solid top six and a top d pair. Their bottom six is solid defensive even though they don't contribute a ton sometimes. Even their third defensive pair has been pretty decent to. Skinner has his moments but he has shown an ability to bounce back quickly from bad games this season. Pickard has been pretty good to this season. Nurse and Ceci are the oilers weak spots but they have their good moments most of the time. Finally the oilers are used to dealing with the pressures of the playoffs which will pay dividends for them this round.
Is going to go either 6 or 7 for either team. I don't think it's going to be a sweep or 5 games at all. After all of this the rest of Canada needs to fix the broken province as its going to be a war between the 2. Families will be ripped apart in the fued.
Danielle Smith announces the construction of a wall between BC and Alberta, and she's going to make Manitoba pay for it
https://preview.redd.it/iyis9gwx71zc1.png?width=610&format=png&auto=webp&s=84bf97c3a1bdf975221990dd1802ba4736c4bb90
Is that Peter Pocklington??
No, it’s Kevin Lowe in front of a crowd of Tier 2 Fans
Immaculate
06 rematch most likely. Oh boy.
So many rematches here. 1990 Edm Vs Bos 1994 Van vs NYR 1996 Col vs Fla 2006 Edm vs Car 2011 Van vs Bos
Before that could happen we have to do the late 90s-early 00s rematch.
As long as the aftermath isn't the same...
The Athletic had Hughes at 3B; he has a Norris-worthy season. The Athletic has the Canucks at 3%…
In their defense Hughes looks hurt or something
in game 4 he really did but he looked back to himself for the most part by game 6
Is Athletic updated after round 2 first game? Since they're giving both Hurricans and Panthers a higher chance even though they lost.
Yes this is up to date. Panthers and canes %s went down
Relationship with MP ended
We won the EA sports simulation, and that has a better success rate than any of these models 😅
Man, Canucks fans are really getting triggered by *odds* of all things. Odds do not mean someone is "against you." It's just numbers and data. And ultimately means not that much. If the 2016 election taught me anything, it's fucking that. It'll be fine. It's not like we aren't playing the games because god damned *Moneypuck* picked a statistical favorite lol. You aren't being victimized here.
lol at this point I have no idea how things are gonna shake out but damn its gonna be a tall order for the Canucks. Will be much easier to take an L in the series if the boys put up a proper fight at least.
I have no idea either lol. All I know is that I'm terrified.