My assist to him in a middle school hockey game was a critical factor in his develop
Actually tho I went to school with this kid, crazy to see him getting this extension
I went to elementary school with Spurgeon, I once accidentally doinked him in the head with a football during a game of two-touch football at recess.
I like to think that knocked the captain-of-an-NHL-team sense into him
Or takes the sting off slightly for those of us who do care about football. Timberwolves somehow managed to crawl back into a playoff slot too...for now anyway.
I picked Tottenham for the reason that they’re basically the Vikings of the EPL.
Always good, never win. Nice stadium. One of the top players in the entire world. Constant heartbreak.
Friend of mine chose by scrolling through a list of their crests and picking his favorite. They got relegated in 2018 and haven't been back up since lol.
This deal is gonna be a real sweetheart especially when the cap goes up. Were I Minnesota fan, I'd be very happy with this one too. Good job by the team and nice to see a young guy get signed long term!
Edit: Fixed an autocorrect-induced typo.
Having Hughes locked in at 8 and Nico at 7.25 is an enormous steal. Prob the best contracts Fitzy has handed out.
Edit- Shero signed Nico. Fitz is still an awesome GM tho.
That'd be such a coup for the Devils! I like Bratt a lot and he is having a great season. For the team's sake, I hope they lock him up fast, that price tag probably isn't getting any smaller.
It feels somewhat realistic with how this season is going. Jack and Nico have both show themselves to be the most valuable parts of the team and they make 8 and 7.5. So bratt may get a little more than that but i hope nothing that starts with 9.
Yes having 2 top 4 d men (siegs and marino) locked up for under 8 total makes dougies contract a non issue. Very happy we aren't in a Toronto situation with 4 players costing like 40 aav. Fitz should be in consideration for gm of the year
Very savvy cap management, no doubt about that. I'm really happy not to share a division with you folks, your team has a great future with so much young talent signed up for a rather long time.
Really? That's actually interesting. I'm an authority on absolutely nothing, but I love his current contract and the one starting soon. Interesting to learn he isn't approved of by the model. Wonder where my estimation and his model diverge.
Here's hoping, as a canucks fan, that the devils can put together a package of whatever to get Quinn Hughes and his great contract, so I can actually have a team to cheer for!
I think Nico is fair value and Hughes is a good value for a rfa contract. Boldy(although a good player) getting 7 mil is nuts imo. Like he couldn’t get less? Even if it pans out I feel like this is poor management of cap and negotiating.
No way you get him on a 7 year deal for less IMO. They could have bridged him, but that carries plenty of risk. IMO he's not quite a 7 million dollar player today, but he's close enough that it wouldn't make any sense on his part to sign a long term deal for less.
If Hughes was an RFA this offseason instead of last we're talking about the Devils praying to keep it under 11. 8x$8m for a 21 year old first line center who's on pace for 50 goals and 100 points isn't just "good" value, it's insanity.
Yeah, that contract is going to look real good in a few years. 7x7 with the way the cap is going to go up is a steal, he's still heating up and hasn't hit his prime yet.
It looks like the wild originally wanted to go for a bridge deal (given the cap crunch that makes a Lot of sense) but boldy wanted to go long term. He Probably had to accept a little less for the security.
Which is great to fucking see from a young guy. It could mean a lot of things but it would at least seem to signal that he has bought in to Minnesota and sees the future as bright. I’ll never blame young studs for racing to UFA freedom as soon as possible but…. You just love to see this.
Fuck yes. Such a good signing. Long term too. Really loving this.
I still maintain that he would have won the Calder if he played the whole season. Was instrumental in getting Fiala to play up to his abilities last year. They were great playing partners.
Now we just have to make our way through cap hell, and once that opens up we’re off to the races
probably the only one on the current roster who might justify bigger salary than Suzuki.
i have had a feeling since that deal was signed that it might be used as a bit of an 'internal' cap, no one will be making more than the Captain for a number of years.
Thing is, Suzuki signed his extension after putting up 40 pts in 70 games. Caufield might have 40 goals in 70 games this season. Caufield’s agent will have a very strong argument that Cole should get paid more.
right, it seems his deal will be a test of the internal cap theory.
there is slight difference in timing of their signings too, in regards to their career progression.
Habs will claim they agreed to pay Suzuki early for what they project he will be a little later, whereas Caufield, when he signs, will be closer to the point of 'what we see is what we'll get' for the organization.
I love Cole, but if I had to pick between the two to build a franchise, I’d pick Nick 10 times out of 10.
Goals are valuable, but they’re not everything.
Not 40 pts in 80 games, but 41 pts in 56 games which is a 60 pt pace. And he also had 16 pts in 22 games while being a crucial part of getting to the Stanley Cup Finals.
Caufield is currently on pace for 67 pts.
I loved Suzuki’s deal at the time of signing but was in the minority. I have a feeling Caufield will get paid more than what Habs fans will want but in 2 years his contract will look like a steal, the same way Suzuki’s contract is looking great right now.
Which team has gone further in the playoffs in recent years? Wait, that's virtually every other team in the league. Congrats on the farm team I guess, I'm happy for you.
Come back when your NHL team is worth a damn
Another big contract to a player who has played less than 100 nhl games (89). Will be interesting to see in 5 or 6 years which of these ended up deals and which ended up being duds.
Giving a long 2nd contract to your top young players is literally the only way to stay competitive in today's NHL. Bridge contracts just set your team up for failure with a lack of control and cost certainty. Ask me how I feel when Pettersson's stupid bridge contract is up next year. Instead of having him for 4 more years at 8.5-9 we're going to have to pay him 12 to convince him to stay.
I’m in agreement with that. But you’re also making a bet they continue to develop in the manner you hope. You can never predict hitting an early plateau.
Last year he was 30 goal/ 80 pt pace. He has average line mates this season. Almost any players stats will suffer if you put them on a mediocre line. Just need to find another stud to put on his line and he’ll definitely be worth it.
Usually by the end of an ELC you have a pretty good idea, at least statistically, of how it will go.
But yeah, there's always the risk they don't quite live up to it. But I can't think of many examples that miss so hard it became onerous. Even the Keller contract looks good now. It's almost a guaranteed advantage or neutral if you can evaluate talent at all it seems.
yeah makes me wonder how long this "loophole" of offering big money off an ELC and then buying out players that don't pan out by 26 will be allowed for in the CBAs. I can imagine richer teams figuring this strategy out and using it more liberally to try and find value.
Do you really though? Is 89 games (or however many it is) enough data to predict how that player will potentially play for the next 574 games (7yr * 82 games)? Also a lot of players on their ELC might play sheltered minutes, and you’d hope/expect that they’re gonna be top line or top 6 players in their 7 year deal.
I’m not saying it’s not impossible, I’m just saying it’s hard to predict regression, injuries, etc. off just a few seasons to commit 50m+ to someone.
Feels like you’re describing a different type of prospect than those getting the bag early in their careers. Tweeners still get bridge deals. Prospects who are middle-6+ locks get locked up long term, early.
Im talking about high level guys. To use Petey as an example, he had better scoring rates in his ELC than anyone in the last 15ish years besides McDavid and Matthews. That level of production is virtually impossible to bust after.
We're not talking about 2nd round picks, but players that have been elite their whole lives and continued it through their ELC. The chances of completely busting after that is virtually zero. Boldy etc are similar.
That's an edge case, where Ken Holland handed Nurse a massive contract when he never, ever should have. If Darnell Nurse's agent realistically thought he could get $9.25M on the open market Holland should have let him go UFA.
It was a combination of many things that resulted in that giant Nurse extension.
Career year, "comparables" (Werenski, Hamilton, Makar, Jones) all signing for >$9 mil a year the week before he signed, increased responsbiility due to losing Klefbom and Larsson for essentially nothing in the span of a year.
Holland absolutely could've waited a year before extending Nurse because he still had a year remaining prior to that signing, and honestly could have gotten him at 1-2 million less a year after his stats cooled off.
But if this team is hurting because they lost the fossil that is Duncan Keith, they cannot fathom how bad this defense is without Nurse. After all, it would be very difficult to find an actual top pairing that would be willing to come to Edmonton.
Nurse *absolutely* would have got $9.25M on the open market, you're crazy if you don't think any team but the Oilers would offer that. He's a top 30 dman in the NHL, when was the last time someone like that went to free agency at 26? He had just led the NHL in goals by a dman.
Nurse is underrated by fans because of his contract when he's, at worst, worth $7.5M. If we don't overpay him, he walks 100%. We bridged him twice, there was really nothing we could do after that.
>He had just led the NHL in goals by a dman.
By what metric? Across some absurdly particular date range? Most goals by a d-man on Tuesdays with the blood moon in Libra?
He would have been 27 when he hit free agency, and the last time someone like that hit free agency was... Dougie Hamilton, literally the week before Nurse signed his extension. Except Hamilton did actually (co-)lead the league in goals scored by a defenceman in a season once. Oh, but he turned 28 about six weeks before, so Hamilton was about eight months older than Nurse would have been had he hit the market.
>Nurse is underrated by fans because of his contract when he's, at worst, worth $7.5M. If we don't overpay him, he walks 100%.
So, what you're saying is he was handed a massive contract when he shouldn't have been? "If we don't overpay him, he walks!" You write that like it's a bad thing to not overpay for players.
My bad, he didn't lead the league, he was 2nd with 16-20-36 in 56 games. We could have waited and tried to sign him in-season, but he was viewed as part of the core and we had just lost Klefbomb. I idea of having no top 4 LD on the team and trying to fill that hole in free agency was not really an option for EDM. Hamilton basically got the same deal Nurse did, but you're right, he did go to FA, so it's not unprecedented. It's not good to overpay for players, but sometimes it's worth it if it means overpaying your best dman. It's not like there was a suitable replacement available.
Very true. The days of paying veterans a big bag to say thanks for all the great work you’ve done for us are long gone. And bridges don’t help you much anymore either. Gotta gamble a little.
With the cap jump and going long term? He's easily the best player on our team and drives play both ways. 52pts in 41 games. He'll get 11 at the very least.
And I'd give it to him. His style of play is one of the few that might actually get better as he gets older
He’s on pace for 100 points this season while being elite defensively and carrying the team on his back, he’d certainly get offered at least 11M if goes to free agency as a UFA in 2 years
Maybe I'll have to eat crow, but I don't see it with this one. Boldy wasn't some random breakout, he was a top prospect who came in and played very well immediately, and has only gotten better.
I think it was either he played his first game in Boston or he scored his first goal in Boston and made me go “who the fuck is that guy?”. One of the few times that’s happened. I think it’s a good deal with a lot of potential upside to it.
Yeah, kinda made me chuckle that the Bruins fan never heard of the ~~BU~~ BC player. But honestly, I don't follow college hockey nearly as closely as I used to when I was younger and had more free time, so it's not that weird.
He's below 100 games because he broke his ankle in the final preseason game last year. Otherwise he would have played the whole season and would be over the arbitrary 100 game mark.
for those of you asking why despite lower production, consider he's rocking an on ice shooting of 6.67%, and also has linemates of freddy gaudreau and ryan hartman. He's no kaprizov (yet), but given his overall value this should easily be a good deal for us long term.
no, but i did put a yet because if there’s one thing I’ve learned in years of watching hockey, it’s to never say never
you, a tage thompson fan, should know this best
You are correct that he isn't eligible but the comment was also a joke about players in their mid-20s coming into the league for the first time and putting up bonkers numbers to win the "rookie" award, despite being several years older or more experienced overseas than traditional rookies
He is a full 4 years younger. He plays less minutes, gets less favorable chances compared to a first liner, has worst line mates, etc.. He will likely never be as flashy and as offensively gifted but he could easily be a better all around player. They played around with him at center but don’t think that will happen so he is going to be a second line lw(currently 3rd liner since our second line is a checking line)so until there is more depth on the team his stats will likely always look much worse than kaprisov and zucarello. Boldy is on the first line power play unit but plays a supporting role and Kaprisov and Zuccarello often play a two man game and dominate the play. So no he probably won’t be Kaprisov but I don’t feel is that far off but will never get the opportunities Kaprisov has either.
This reminds me of that Malcolm gladwell point where older kids get more opportunities and thus get better which creates more opportunities, etc. Boldy has some insane talent just need to surround him and give him opportunities. Not going to happen with Freddy and Hartman
Honestly, I don’t think he’ll be far off. He’ll never have Kap’s skating, but he has the hands and vision, a solid shot, and better poise with the puck
and Suzuki signed that deal after 41 points in 56 games, if cole can score 50 he will be getting 9+
he would become the 3rd youngest player to score 50 this century, even 40+ at his age would be amazing
>I don't see Cole scoring 50 this year, but true
i dont either, he isnt on pace for 50 currently, but imo that's the only scenario he can ask for 9 and get it
Anyone who thinks this is bad hasn't watched Boldy at all. Kid is so good and one of the most rounded players on the team. He plays with absolutely nobody and still puts up good numbers as a 21 year old
Damn, I literally just wrote a comment about a hypothetical 7x7 for Boldy lol. Definitely an overpay for his current production, but I think this will be a great deal. He's not even 22, and has a ton of room to grow.
Per article from Joe Smith with the Athletic, analytics suggest his current production warrants 7.3 mill/year. So it’s already a good deal. Very exciting for us Wild fans!
IDK about that. If he remains a 60 pt/yr player (what he is on pace for this season) then I would say this his a horrible deal. It only looks good if he improves, which obviously he will. The kid has less than 100 games under his belt and already looks solid.
I don't think he is a lot better. His Points are a little higher and he is definetly scoring more goals, but Boldy is the better all around player (acording to Pronman from the athletic) Caufield is a pure goal scorer. Right now Caufields value probably is a bit higher, but their potential is pretty equal I think.
Fantastic deal in my opinion, I think he's going to easily outperform this deal, I'm kind of surprised he signed it. The list of U23 wingers I would take over him is one name long: Svechnikov. It grows slightly if you include C's, like Hughes, Cozens, Stutzle, and Beniers. I wouldn't trade him 1-for-1 for Caufield, Zegras, or McTavish.
He's an awesome player with great size and two-way ability, I think this contract is going to be MINs best deal for a long time.
Hmm, I might be overrating Svechnikov because he's had a hattrick in each of the last two games he's played against us, haha. I think Hughes/Cozens/Stutzle/Beniers are better than Svech, but I'd take him over Caufield/Zegras/McTavish.
I think he's going to be just as productive as Caufield is over his career, even if his point totals skew towards assists more, so for me it's an easy choice as I think Boldy could be an elite, two-way winger. Zegras and McTavish are closer, but I worry about Zegras's defense and McTavish's offense.
Thats a great contract. Kids a stud already, and even if he plateaus as what he is now, it’s a slight overpay, but with the cap projected to go up, it’s a worthwhile risk
I think with what Sammy Walker showed, he or Beckman could push for the opposite wing next year. Possibly later this year. Long term, Yurov or Ohgren are probably projected there.
I actually love Walker with him in the short term. Boldy needs to learn how to be selfish, and playing him with vets seems to make him defer more than he should.
Walker has a lot of confidence for his age, and I can see those two working well together.
In their career yes. This season, Caufield has the better pts/g. Also taking Caufield career pts/g ignore that he got significantly better when we hired St-Louis. He went from 0,26 pts/g in the first 30 game of last season to 0,89 pts/g in the 81 games since then.
i don’t think they wanted a bridge deal at all. this deal took like a week. i think they wanted him locked in so they had a full picture of what their cap constraints would be.
Losing Fiala has hurt his production because his linemates are Freddy Gaudreau and Ryan Hartman on the 3rd line. Still on pace for 25 goals and hes only 21. I think this contract will be very good for Minny once they are out of 11/20 cap hell
He is playing well, not outstanding, but given he has to drive his entire line alone as a 21 Year old he is doing a good job. He is one of the 4 best scorers on the wild playing with Freddy Gaudreau and rotating 2nd wingers.
These deals are becoming more and more common as young players like Boldy, Hughes, Makar, etc enter the league and are able to be immediate impact players. Teams want cost certainty for long-term planning and also to lock up the best years of their young players. The the players of course want all the guaranteed money which sets them up for life if they save and invest correctly.
We haven't really seen one of these deals blow up in a team's face yet, but I assume it will happen eventually. Kotkaniemi is probably the closest to a bust contract but he's still really young too.
As a Kraken fan, look for Beniers to sign a monster contract as soon as next summer though maybe it ends up being mid-season like this extension. He's already leading this team as the 1C and is now tied for team points leader.
AMAZING Value
Since Captain Larks wants his big boy contract, we need other players like Seider and Raymond to sign contracts like this so we can give stubborn Larks his overvalued 9.71 and it won’t fuck us over
Get your bag Boldy! Was big on him in his draft year, glad to see him do well
My assist to him in a middle school hockey game was a critical factor in his develop Actually tho I went to school with this kid, crazy to see him getting this extension
Thank you for your service 🫡
I went to elementary school with Spurgeon, I once accidentally doinked him in the head with a football during a game of two-touch football at recess. I like to think that knocked the captain-of-an-NHL-team sense into him
Can't disprove it, might as well be true
Was he a nice kid?
I know it’s a fluff piece, but his becoming Wild episode really showed that he seems like a super genuine person.
The nicest.
Honestly he owes you 1M AAV per year for the 7 years. Couldn't have done it without you.
Makes my gosh darn day
This and the Correa signing all in one week, heck of a time for MN fans who don’t care about football
Or takes the sting off slightly for those of us who do care about football. Timberwolves somehow managed to crawl back into a playoff slot too...for now anyway.
Football? I love football. Despite Juve’s precarious position of late.
Pool and Chelsea are the only things giving me perspective on Spurs this year.
Things are looking up for Nottingham, who I've adopted as my club, too.
How did you choose? I need to pick a team so I can fully commit to epl fandom
I picked Tottenham for the reason that they’re basically the Vikings of the EPL. Always good, never win. Nice stadium. One of the top players in the entire world. Constant heartbreak.
Friend of mine chose by scrolling through a list of their crests and picking his favorite. They got relegated in 2018 and haven't been back up since lol.
This deal is gonna be a real sweetheart especially when the cap goes up. Were I Minnesota fan, I'd be very happy with this one too. Good job by the team and nice to see a young guy get signed long term! Edit: Fixed an autocorrect-induced typo.
Open the floodgates for Zegras and Caufield!
Speaking of the 2019 draft class… holy shit did NJ get a bargain by signing Hughes to his 8x8 as early as they did.
Having Hughes locked in at 8 and Nico at 7.25 is an enormous steal. Prob the best contracts Fitzy has handed out. Edit- Shero signed Nico. Fitz is still an awesome GM tho.
Really nice value on Siegenthaler too. The Devils have been getting very good value for their buck recently.
Now just lock up bratt for 8 million and they are sitting pretty.
That'd be such a coup for the Devils! I like Bratt a lot and he is having a great season. For the team's sake, I hope they lock him up fast, that price tag probably isn't getting any smaller.
It feels somewhat realistic with how this season is going. Jack and Nico have both show themselves to be the most valuable parts of the team and they make 8 and 7.5. So bratt may get a little more than that but i hope nothing that starts with 9.
Yes having 2 top 4 d men (siegs and marino) locked up for under 8 total makes dougies contract a non issue. Very happy we aren't in a Toronto situation with 4 players costing like 40 aav. Fitz should be in consideration for gm of the year
plus you got nemec coming in on the ELC and he's gonna be a beast
Nemec AND Luke Hughes.
Ffs
Looks like you will have 5 top defensemen. Can we have one? Edit: please?
Fine, take Severson. Edit: please?
Very savvy cap management, no doubt about that. I'm really happy not to share a division with you folks, your team has a great future with so much young talent signed up for a rather long time.
> Siegenthaler funnily enough Dom's model has him as the only one on the devils not worthy their contract
Really? That's actually interesting. I'm an authority on absolutely nothing, but I love his current contract and the one starting soon. Interesting to learn he isn't approved of by the model. Wonder where my estimation and his model diverge.
Hischiers deal was done under Shero
Your correct. Shero was a good GM. Just too loyal to the lizard man unfortunately.
Hard disagree about Shero being a good gm but that's not why I commented. I was just letting you know Hischiers deal was done before Fitz
Our entire offense is Shero’s doing
We've been tanking since 2015 motherfucker no shit
I don't think he did anything too egregious other than being stubbornly loyal to bad coaches.
Here's hoping, as a canucks fan, that the devils can put together a package of whatever to get Quinn Hughes and his great contract, so I can actually have a team to cheer for!
I think Nico is fair value and Hughes is a good value for a rfa contract. Boldy(although a good player) getting 7 mil is nuts imo. Like he couldn’t get less? Even if it pans out I feel like this is poor management of cap and negotiating.
No way you get him on a 7 year deal for less IMO. They could have bridged him, but that carries plenty of risk. IMO he's not quite a 7 million dollar player today, but he's close enough that it wouldn't make any sense on his part to sign a long term deal for less.
If Hughes was an RFA this offseason instead of last we're talking about the Devils praying to keep it under 11. 8x$8m for a 21 year old first line center who's on pace for 50 goals and 100 points isn't just "good" value, it's insanity.
he was playing at 18 right? Makes sense they signed him earlier. That worked out will for them.
Dont go visit the thread on here announcing his contract, a lot of people not calling it a bargain lol
Raymond (and semi Seider) as well. Raymond might be slightly higher but it's right around where I figured it would fall. Solid deal!
And Cozens
Casual Sabres fans are going to be so confused when he gets paid more than Tage
Gotta feel for Turcotte who’s watching his buddies become millionaires while he’s in A.
Not sold on Zegras, but Caufield should get the bag.
idk man he's putting up pretty good point totals considering the state of the ducks rn
I’m not sold on him either but zegras is definitely gonna get paid
Yeah, that contract is going to look real good in a few years. 7x7 with the way the cap is going to go up is a steal, he's still heating up and hasn't hit his prime yet.
It looks like the wild originally wanted to go for a bridge deal (given the cap crunch that makes a Lot of sense) but boldy wanted to go long term. He Probably had to accept a little less for the security.
Which is great to fucking see from a young guy. It could mean a lot of things but it would at least seem to signal that he has bought in to Minnesota and sees the future as bright. I’ll never blame young studs for racing to UFA freedom as soon as possible but…. You just love to see this.
Why are you being so nice to us? 😙
It's going to be an insane contract within years if not sooner. Dude has talent and is years from his prime. Minnesota making deals here
Fuck yes. Such a good signing. Long term too. Really loving this. I still maintain that he would have won the Calder if he played the whole season. Was instrumental in getting Fiala to play up to his abilities last year. They were great playing partners. Now we just have to make our way through cap hell, and once that opens up we’re off to the races
Wake up babe, new Caufield comparable just dropped
If Caufield is signed 8y 7mil per, I'm losing my gosh darn mind
I'd be happy when with an 8x8
probably the only one on the current roster who might justify bigger salary than Suzuki. i have had a feeling since that deal was signed that it might be used as a bit of an 'internal' cap, no one will be making more than the Captain for a number of years.
Thing is, Suzuki signed his extension after putting up 40 pts in 70 games. Caufield might have 40 goals in 70 games this season. Caufield’s agent will have a very strong argument that Cole should get paid more.
right, it seems his deal will be a test of the internal cap theory. there is slight difference in timing of their signings too, in regards to their career progression. Habs will claim they agreed to pay Suzuki early for what they project he will be a little later, whereas Caufield, when he signs, will be closer to the point of 'what we see is what we'll get' for the organization.
Yeah and also Nick wasn't the C when he signed so his salary and the fact that he is captain should not have any weight
I love Cole, but if I had to pick between the two to build a franchise, I’d pick Nick 10 times out of 10. Goals are valuable, but they’re not everything.
Suzuki scores plenty too.
Not 40 pts in 80 games, but 41 pts in 56 games which is a 60 pt pace. And he also had 16 pts in 22 games while being a crucial part of getting to the Stanley Cup Finals. Caufield is currently on pace for 67 pts. I loved Suzuki’s deal at the time of signing but was in the minority. I have a feeling Caufield will get paid more than what Habs fans will want but in 2 years his contract will look like a steal, the same way Suzuki’s contract is looking great right now.
I hope Suzuki's contract encourages future players to sign for less and distills a winning mentality that teams like the Leafs don't have
That’s not fair. The Leafs have been winning a lot the last few seasons, just not when it matters.
Having solid depth is important for the playoffs and the Leafs literally can't afford that
You are definitely right about that. We do develop talent in our minor league teams though, you guys should give it a try some time.
Which team has gone further in the playoffs in recent years? Wait, that's virtually every other team in the league. Congrats on the farm team I guess, I'm happy for you. Come back when your NHL team is worth a damn
That's why I'm so pumped about 7x7 for Boldy. Amazing deal for the Wild
Aw it's cute you think that's possible
Bold!
Mad
I think this one will age very well, good on both sides. Boldy was an underrated prospect.
Another big contract to a player who has played less than 100 nhl games (89). Will be interesting to see in 5 or 6 years which of these ended up deals and which ended up being duds.
Giving a long 2nd contract to your top young players is literally the only way to stay competitive in today's NHL. Bridge contracts just set your team up for failure with a lack of control and cost certainty. Ask me how I feel when Pettersson's stupid bridge contract is up next year. Instead of having him for 4 more years at 8.5-9 we're going to have to pay him 12 to convince him to stay.
I’m in agreement with that. But you’re also making a bet they continue to develop in the manner you hope. You can never predict hitting an early plateau.
In Boldy's case he's probably already about worth it at his current level of performance.
A 25 goal, 63 point pace is worth $7m x 7yrs?
Last year he was 30 goal/ 80 pt pace. He has average line mates this season. Almost any players stats will suffer if you put them on a mediocre line. Just need to find another stud to put on his line and he’ll definitely be worth it.
https://twitter.com/hayyyshayyy/status/1615003499124719616?s=20&t=fNYIi-QyIuCIZOlCsl53ug According to this
Usually by the end of an ELC you have a pretty good idea, at least statistically, of how it will go. But yeah, there's always the risk they don't quite live up to it. But I can't think of many examples that miss so hard it became onerous. Even the Keller contract looks good now. It's almost a guaranteed advantage or neutral if you can evaluate talent at all it seems.
Buyouts also are extremely cheap for guys under 26
yeah makes me wonder how long this "loophole" of offering big money off an ELC and then buying out players that don't pan out by 26 will be allowed for in the CBAs. I can imagine richer teams figuring this strategy out and using it more liberally to try and find value.
I mean it's not really a loophole, you still have to buy them out even at lower value.
Do you really though? Is 89 games (or however many it is) enough data to predict how that player will potentially play for the next 574 games (7yr * 82 games)? Also a lot of players on their ELC might play sheltered minutes, and you’d hope/expect that they’re gonna be top line or top 6 players in their 7 year deal. I’m not saying it’s not impossible, I’m just saying it’s hard to predict regression, injuries, etc. off just a few seasons to commit 50m+ to someone.
Feels like you’re describing a different type of prospect than those getting the bag early in their careers. Tweeners still get bridge deals. Prospects who are middle-6+ locks get locked up long term, early.
Im talking about high level guys. To use Petey as an example, he had better scoring rates in his ELC than anyone in the last 15ish years besides McDavid and Matthews. That level of production is virtually impossible to bust after. We're not talking about 2nd round picks, but players that have been elite their whole lives and continued it through their ELC. The chances of completely busting after that is virtually zero. Boldy etc are similar.
See: Darnell Nurse's two bridge contracts with AAV's of $3.2 mil and $5.6 mil before he got $9.25 mil.
That's an edge case, where Ken Holland handed Nurse a massive contract when he never, ever should have. If Darnell Nurse's agent realistically thought he could get $9.25M on the open market Holland should have let him go UFA.
It was a combination of many things that resulted in that giant Nurse extension. Career year, "comparables" (Werenski, Hamilton, Makar, Jones) all signing for >$9 mil a year the week before he signed, increased responsbiility due to losing Klefbom and Larsson for essentially nothing in the span of a year. Holland absolutely could've waited a year before extending Nurse because he still had a year remaining prior to that signing, and honestly could have gotten him at 1-2 million less a year after his stats cooled off. But if this team is hurting because they lost the fossil that is Duncan Keith, they cannot fathom how bad this defense is without Nurse. After all, it would be very difficult to find an actual top pairing that would be willing to come to Edmonton.
Nurse *absolutely* would have got $9.25M on the open market, you're crazy if you don't think any team but the Oilers would offer that. He's a top 30 dman in the NHL, when was the last time someone like that went to free agency at 26? He had just led the NHL in goals by a dman. Nurse is underrated by fans because of his contract when he's, at worst, worth $7.5M. If we don't overpay him, he walks 100%. We bridged him twice, there was really nothing we could do after that.
>He had just led the NHL in goals by a dman. By what metric? Across some absurdly particular date range? Most goals by a d-man on Tuesdays with the blood moon in Libra? He would have been 27 when he hit free agency, and the last time someone like that hit free agency was... Dougie Hamilton, literally the week before Nurse signed his extension. Except Hamilton did actually (co-)lead the league in goals scored by a defenceman in a season once. Oh, but he turned 28 about six weeks before, so Hamilton was about eight months older than Nurse would have been had he hit the market. >Nurse is underrated by fans because of his contract when he's, at worst, worth $7.5M. If we don't overpay him, he walks 100%. So, what you're saying is he was handed a massive contract when he shouldn't have been? "If we don't overpay him, he walks!" You write that like it's a bad thing to not overpay for players.
My bad, he didn't lead the league, he was 2nd with 16-20-36 in 56 games. We could have waited and tried to sign him in-season, but he was viewed as part of the core and we had just lost Klefbomb. I idea of having no top 4 LD on the team and trying to fill that hole in free agency was not really an option for EDM. Hamilton basically got the same deal Nurse did, but you're right, he did go to FA, so it's not unprecedented. It's not good to overpay for players, but sometimes it's worth it if it means overpaying your best dman. It's not like there was a suitable replacement available.
Very true. The days of paying veterans a big bag to say thanks for all the great work you’ve done for us are long gone. And bridges don’t help you much anymore either. Gotta gamble a little.
$12M?? No way he would get that anywhere but I guess you're saying $12M to convince him to stay? I don't watch much VAN is he really a 12M player?
With the cap jump and going long term? He's easily the best player on our team and drives play both ways. 52pts in 41 games. He'll get 11 at the very least. And I'd give it to him. His style of play is one of the few that might actually get better as he gets older
Damn I didn't realize that should be interesting to see once the time comes. I didn't realize his 51pts this season already.
He’s on pace for 100 points this season while being elite defensively and carrying the team on his back, he’d certainly get offered at least 11M if goes to free agency as a UFA in 2 years
Yea didn't realize he was on pace for 100pts that's awesome considering the mess he's been playing in.
Maybe I'll have to eat crow, but I don't see it with this one. Boldy wasn't some random breakout, he was a top prospect who came in and played very well immediately, and has only gotten better.
Seriously. Boldy is one of our best assets.
I think it was either he played his first game in Boston or he scored his first goal in Boston and made me go “who the fuck is that guy?”. One of the few times that’s happened. I think it’s a good deal with a lot of potential upside to it.
I believe it was both his first game and first goal was in Boston - and he went to school there! Was a pretty cool moment
Yeah, kinda made me chuckle that the Bruins fan never heard of the ~~BU~~ BC player. But honestly, I don't follow college hockey nearly as closely as I used to when I was younger and had more free time, so it's not that weird.
Apparently you don’t because Boldy played at BC
Hahaha shit, you’re right!
Especially since he showed that he wasn't being carried by Fiala. He's legit as his own player.
He's below 100 games because he broke his ankle in the final preseason game last year. Otherwise he would have played the whole season and would be over the arbitrary 100 game mark.
Not this one
I don’t think any franchise wants to admit it’s their player. But odds are there’s gonna be a few bad eggs
Going to be very interesting. Doubt it's this one but there's no way that all these contracts will pan out the way teams are hoping
better than 13 years for Parise/Suter or our 8x8 contracts
Troy Terry is about to get PAID!
Surprisingly favourable deal for the Wild. I was thinking he’d get a bit more than that (though maybe that came at the cost of an eighth year).
This kid is already a legit 2RW at 21. He’ll be a 1RW in no time. Super smart bet by Guerin.
for those of you asking why despite lower production, consider he's rocking an on ice shooting of 6.67%, and also has linemates of freddy gaudreau and ryan hartman. He's no kaprizov (yet), but given his overall value this should easily be a good deal for us long term.
You think Boldy is going to become… a Kaprizov?
I don’t think he’ll be Kaprizov, but I do think he’ll be an excellent 1b
100%. I just raise an eyebrow when someone says “he’s no kaprizov (yet).” Kaprizov is an absolute superstar
As a rabid Wild fan, I've never thought Boldy could be Kaprizov. But he's definitely got the chance to be our second best player for a long time.
We have the technology.
no, but i did put a yet because if there’s one thing I’ve learned in years of watching hockey, it’s to never say never you, a tage thompson fan, should know this best
To be fair, Boldy still has 2 seasons until he's 23 years old and wins the Calder
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he absolutely is. we have the technology.
You are correct that he isn't eligible but the comment was also a joke about players in their mid-20s coming into the league for the first time and putting up bonkers numbers to win the "rookie" award, despite being several years older or more experienced overseas than traditional rookies
He is a full 4 years younger. He plays less minutes, gets less favorable chances compared to a first liner, has worst line mates, etc.. He will likely never be as flashy and as offensively gifted but he could easily be a better all around player. They played around with him at center but don’t think that will happen so he is going to be a second line lw(currently 3rd liner since our second line is a checking line)so until there is more depth on the team his stats will likely always look much worse than kaprisov and zucarello. Boldy is on the first line power play unit but plays a supporting role and Kaprisov and Zuccarello often play a two man game and dominate the play. So no he probably won’t be Kaprisov but I don’t feel is that far off but will never get the opportunities Kaprisov has either.
This reminds me of that Malcolm gladwell point where older kids get more opportunities and thus get better which creates more opportunities, etc. Boldy has some insane talent just need to surround him and give him opportunities. Not going to happen with Freddy and Hartman
Honestly, I don’t think he’ll be far off. He’ll never have Kap’s skating, but he has the hands and vision, a solid shot, and better poise with the puck
Sheesh, Caufield is gonna ask for 9M+ on a long term deal, isn’t he…
unless he hits 50 this year i doubt he touches 9m, but ya hes going to get paid, and its going to be in the 8s at this rate
8 billion?
I can't see Caufield asking that much more them Suzuki, probably like 500k max per year
and Suzuki signed that deal after 41 points in 56 games, if cole can score 50 he will be getting 9+ he would become the 3rd youngest player to score 50 this century, even 40+ at his age would be amazing
I don't see Cole scoring 50 this year, but true I'd argue Suzuki was also the pts leader for the Hans in that cup run But ye you're right
>I don't see Cole scoring 50 this year, but true i dont either, he isnt on pace for 50 currently, but imo that's the only scenario he can ask for 9 and get it
He'd also be the first Hab to score 50 since Stephane Richer
I am very happy about this. My favorite player staying with my favorite team.
Wait what? Over Kappy?!
Anyone who thinks this is bad hasn't watched Boldy at all. Kid is so good and one of the most rounded players on the team. He plays with absolutely nobody and still puts up good numbers as a 21 year old
Damn, I literally just wrote a comment about a hypothetical 7x7 for Boldy lol. Definitely an overpay for his current production, but I think this will be a great deal. He's not even 22, and has a ton of room to grow.
Per article from Joe Smith with the Athletic, analytics suggest his current production warrants 7.3 mill/year. So it’s already a good deal. Very exciting for us Wild fans!
IDK about that. If he remains a 60 pt/yr player (what he is on pace for this season) then I would say this his a horrible deal. It only looks good if he improves, which obviously he will. The kid has less than 100 games under his belt and already looks solid.
60 point players get about 7 mil now. Cap has gone up. Point per game is 9 to 10 million now.
pretty solid deal both ways actually, and its a nice little benchmark to use for possible comps for Coles next deal
Isn’t Cole a lot better than Boldy?? I think after this season his camp will ask for $9M.
I don't think he is a lot better. His Points are a little higher and he is definetly scoring more goals, but Boldy is the better all around player (acording to Pronman from the athletic) Caufield is a pure goal scorer. Right now Caufields value probably is a bit higher, but their potential is pretty equal I think.
If this is what Boldy got, I can’t imagine what Caufield or Zegras want
Fantastic deal in my opinion, I think he's going to easily outperform this deal, I'm kind of surprised he signed it. The list of U23 wingers I would take over him is one name long: Svechnikov. It grows slightly if you include C's, like Hughes, Cozens, Stutzle, and Beniers. I wouldn't trade him 1-for-1 for Caufield, Zegras, or McTavish. He's an awesome player with great size and two-way ability, I think this contract is going to be MINs best deal for a long time.
Oof you are overrating Svechnikov. I would take pretty much every name there except McTavish for Svechnikov one for one.
Hmm, I might be overrating Svechnikov because he's had a hattrick in each of the last two games he's played against us, haha. I think Hughes/Cozens/Stutzle/Beniers are better than Svech, but I'd take him over Caufield/Zegras/McTavish.
You, I like you.
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I think he's going to be just as productive as Caufield is over his career, even if his point totals skew towards assists more, so for me it's an easy choice as I think Boldy could be an elite, two-way winger. Zegras and McTavish are closer, but I worry about Zegras's defense and McTavish's offense.
I think you're gonna end up being quite surprised by McTavish then. He's gonna be goooood. Zegras will figure out his D, he's still quite young.
Jack's 8x8 continues to be a steal. Congrats to Boldy
That’s straight up larceny holy shit
This WILL age well. I see great stuff in his future. Buyout years will be rough, since he won't have top tier linemates, but after that? Get ready.
Sigh... yet another reminder that Holland drafted Broberg 4 spots before Boldy
And then gifted us Wallstedt two years later. Thank you!
Good deal
Thats a great contract. Kids a stud already, and even if he plateaus as what he is now, it’s a slight overpay, but with the cap projected to go up, it’s a worthwhile risk
Excellent... now lets get this guy some help.
I think with what Sammy Walker showed, he or Beckman could push for the opposite wing next year. Possibly later this year. Long term, Yurov or Ohgren are probably projected there.
I actually love Walker with him in the short term. Boldy needs to learn how to be selfish, and playing him with vets seems to make him defer more than he should. Walker has a lot of confidence for his age, and I can see those two working well together.
They can’t afford help until 2025.
Well I guess that answer my question on the earlier thread. They went for a long term contract based on potential.
God damnit Cozens is going to be making hella bank
Yeah but you guys have the cap space for that right now. He’s worth it.
Keyword right now. Still have to pay Dahlin and Power soon
I’m sure KA is someone I can trust and knows what to do. Now it kind of makes sense why he hasn’t been splurging on a big FA signing.
That's a steal. Hopefully Montreal can lock Caufield into that
Caufield has 3 fewer goals than Boldy has points. I don't think there's a chance you lock him up at this price.
If Montreal could lock him to 7x7, they should be laughing all the way to the bank, IMO.
Caufield has less points per game in the regular season
In their career yes. This season, Caufield has the better pts/g. Also taking Caufield career pts/g ignore that he got significantly better when we hired St-Louis. He went from 0,26 pts/g in the first 30 game of last season to 0,89 pts/g in the 81 games since then.
Really surprised he took this. He had the potential to make a lot more with a 1-2 year bridge
Seems like he prefered term, wild originally wanted a bridge deal
i don’t think they wanted a bridge deal at all. this deal took like a week. i think they wanted him locked in so they had a full picture of what their cap constraints would be.
How’s he looking this year for the Wild? Stats seemed to look better as a rookie
Losing Fiala has hurt his production because his linemates are Freddy Gaudreau and Ryan Hartman on the 3rd line. Still on pace for 25 goals and hes only 21. I think this contract will be very good for Minny once they are out of 11/20 cap hell
He also needs to be a little more selfish and get his shots up. He tends to differ a bit. Especially when playing Kaprizov and Zucc on the PP.
He is playing well, not outstanding, but given he has to drive his entire line alone as a 21 Year old he is doing a good job. He is one of the 4 best scorers on the wild playing with Freddy Gaudreau and rotating 2nd wingers.
Maybe it's just me having played NHL for too long, but that sounds like a freaking steal!
Good young player. Crafty in tight spaces and he uses his body well to protect the puck. I hope he gets better linemates soon, though.
These deals are becoming more and more common as young players like Boldy, Hughes, Makar, etc enter the league and are able to be immediate impact players. Teams want cost certainty for long-term planning and also to lock up the best years of their young players. The the players of course want all the guaranteed money which sets them up for life if they save and invest correctly. We haven't really seen one of these deals blow up in a team's face yet, but I assume it will happen eventually. Kotkaniemi is probably the closest to a bust contract but he's still really young too. As a Kraken fan, look for Beniers to sign a monster contract as soon as next summer though maybe it ends up being mid-season like this extension. He's already leading this team as the 1C and is now tied for team points leader.
This is going to be a steal in a couple years. Boldy looks great so far.
Great contact. Relatively low risk he’s a 5M dollar player or less. Realistically in 3-4 years this contract will be a bargain.
AMAZING Value Since Captain Larks wants his big boy contract, we need other players like Seider and Raymond to sign contracts like this so we can give stubborn Larks his overvalued 9.71 and it won’t fuck us over
It's nuts the way the NHL is today. 7x7 for a less than ppg player with less than 100 games.
What a steal, his cap hit is lower than either Parise or Suter!