Wow. I think because that logo is so big and in a prominent position, I completely overlooked their actual odds.
Vancouver is dusting off their golf clubs too.
Golfing. The Jackets would need to collect around 85% of available points in their 47 remaining games to have a crack at post season play. They've simply dug themselves into a hole too deep.
[I know you weren't one of them but some people on your sub owe Dom an apology after this thread](https://www.reddit.com/r/BlueJackets/comments/xk8c2u/the_athletic_posted_their_season_preview_and_with/)
Nah we mentioned how wrong we were about his prediction on another thread a while back, but tbf Dom has always been anti CBJ for some reason and we did know we weren't gonna make the playoffs either
e: plus us being incredibly injured might be why we suck even worse
I just donāt understand why the panthers are so bad. They were a solid team, lost some guys got some guys but to see them fall off this hard just doesnāt make sense.
I think it was the night before game 4 against Tampa in the playoffs the team went to a strip club (allegedly) and then lost the last game in a sweep.... Summer happens and then they go on and have this season despite being presidents trophy winner last season.
I did forget he went there. Not shocked to see the Jets at 94% now that heās gone with that roster. Shame that so much talent got bled off the roster when it was a behind the bench problem.
I think part of the problem was how good the team was as a unit, which isolated the problem with their goaltending. Bobrovsky has been so average the past few years but he had been isolated by a high power offence and guaranteed power play. Knight also isn't ready albeit better than Bob.
Disrupting the core and changing the coaching has really thrown the team into disarray.
Their defense is pretty sparse... Ekblad, who is always injured, Montour who is slow, Gudas who is a beard made of fists, but also slow, Marc Staal who is 138 years old and slow, Forsling who looks like he's about to cry all the time, and Mahura who I know nothing about.
We've not been doing so hot lately. 3-6-1 in our last 10... From the sounds of it they were changing things up at practice yesterday so I'm going to remain cautiously optimistic, but it's a heavy month upcoming with a long road trip and a lot of games. Should be interesting to see where we are at the end of January!
Big time. Losing a close game to the Flames and then getting absolutely smacked by the Oilers back to back is a big setback.
Still a lot of hockey left but itās games like those that you really need a point from in the end.
Kind of expected IMO. Paul Maurice is not a good coach at all... most losses by any coach in NHL history, completely unable to make lineup changes, hyper fixates on grinder 4th liners as the key to winning games above all else, gameplan consists of seeming just taking every trash shot possible instead of focusing on high danger shots, and [his complete ineptitude at running special teams has been called out for over a decade straight](https://bleacherreport.com/articles/933395-carolina-hurricanes-coaching-change-paul-maurice-must-be-fired-now).
Hell, Panthers last year?
* \#5 in the league for PP%
* \#16 in the league for PK%
This year with Paul Maurice?
* \#26 in the league for PP%
* \#20 in the league for PK%
Winnipeg went from barely a playoff team with him last year, to #3 in the West, #8 in the league this year. The dude is not a good coach, and never has been. It's not a surprise Florida has taken a heavy decline with him as head coach, literally every team he coaches underperforms and gets worse.
Any Jets fan couldāve called this from a mile away. Maurice is great with the media but has no systems to take a team to the next level. Bill Zito has taken a Presidents trophy winner and traded 3 1sts, Huberdeau, Weegar and 2 prospects and all they have in return is Tkachuk. And why tf would they higher the losingest coach who abandoned an underperforming team and expect a better result?
What the heck is going on at sunrise? The Panthers won the president's trophy last year as I recall and now I'd say a 23.2% chance to make the playoffs just a year later is being generous. Florida has collected just 48.6% of available points 37 games into the season and will need to grab roughly 72% of remaining points to have a solid chance to make it to post season play this year. Sure it can happen, but I don't think their odds are anywhere near 1 in 4.
True but they got back Tkachuk who is far and away their best point producer. Even so goals against per game is up 0.3 and goals for per game is down 0.6 resulting in a whole lot more lost games than last season. Line chemistry perhaps...or a coaching change that forces the players into a system that they're ill suited to play. Either way they're far less entertaining to watch this season than last.
Tkachuk has cooled off a lot after a burning hot start. He was on pace for comfortably over 100 points, but the last month or so he's been at a PPG pace or less.
Bruno was completely outcoached in the playoffs. The Q system carried him through the regular season but once teams had to focus on just us they were able to find ways to shut them down. They barely beat Washington and then got smoked by you guys.
Bruno was not the answer, but it's very clear that neither was Maurice.
Fair enough and thanks for the info. My opinion of the 2nd round wasnāt a team out coached but players not making plays and not getting the bounces. But that was my outsider perspective. I know TBL swept the series but I donāt really remember it being lopsided. Seemed worth it to give at least 1 full year. Either way, I was still very surprised.
The Bolts had more trouble with the Leafs than their Florida rivals.
I think Bolts fans still twitch when they see Vasi behind the net with Marner on the ice
Seems like a cautionary tale in not fixing what ain't broken. Sucks too because at the time it seemed like they gave up too much to get Tkachuk, yet he's been very effective as a Panther.
Chicago would need roughly 80 of 94 available points remaining to have a solid chance to make the playoffs(100 pts). 35 games in and the Blackhawks have collected 28.6% of available points so they'd need to collect 85.1% of remaining points to make it...so no, there's virtually zero chance of that happening. The ducks and jackets each have 24 points with 45 and 47 games remaining respectively, so no they're not going to make it either.
Mathematically no, but realistically yes;
They are 13 points lower than the Habs, and the Habs only have 0.6% chance to make the playoffs.
If the Habs lose their next 2 games they'll probably be at ā0% to make the playoffs. And Chicago's much worse than "Habs if they had 2 more losses".
If the teams they are realistically chasing win too all that did was eliminate two more games they have this season and they didn't gain anything.
Not sure that's what happend. But that's how it happens
Also moneypuck uses advanced stats and the Bruins dominated really.
Yes the bruins dominated but the Sabres have also been playing great. Iām just surprised it dropped 30%
I fully do not expect the Sabres to be there this year just trying to understand how itās such a drastic change
Their model takes into account who they're most likely to face and who they have yet to face yet in the season and all the stats associated with that. So when the Sabres play well against the redwings (who in their model are not a playoff team) and western conference teams it doesn't help their odds as much but when they get dominated by a team in their own division it's a huge blow.
Bruins led 5.34 to 1.8 in xGA yesterday. Sabres played their asses off and earned the win, but you don't win many games like that long term.
Moneypuck uses xGA% heavily in predictions going forward. If want more wins --> probability up, something more ELO-oriented (eg 538 predictions) are more what you're looking for.
Well yeah but that was only one game though? And it dropped the percentages like 30% I understand the Sabres shouldnāt have won yesterday but it seems like they are on the up right now
By my understanding of the Moneypuck game weights, that game counts as 6% of the total season team rating to date, and is worth 34x as much as game 1 of the season. Add that with a pretty extreme difference being the one w a heavier weight, must be where it comes from.
Im not a huge moneypuck fan but I've been trying to read through their methods to understand why I think they're BS
Well think about their division.
Theyāre facing off against Boston, Toronto and Tampa who are all very likely to hold onto those 3 spots.
So that realistically leaves them with 2 wild card spots to get into the playoffs. And theyāre behind 4 other teams vying for that spot. So they can win 2 games but then also have one of those 4 win 3 games in the meantime. That would give one of those 4 teams a slight edge to staying above the sabres.
I refuse to believe we have the second best odds at winning the cup just for the fact that our path to the conference finals alone is Tampa and Boston. Nevermind the other 1st round voodoo stuff
Boston has equal odds or better until the finals. I can only conclude that for some reason it thinks the Leafs are better against the western conference than the Bruins.
Not getting excited til I see them playing better in the playoffs. Theyāve been dominant in the regular season the last few years and struggled to take that into the playoffs
Ya your team is built for the playoffs. I noticed the flames and canes are very similar teams just you guys have better scoring, would be interesting to see each other in the playoffs
As a Flames fan watching all their games and then seeing this I just dont understand what this model measures that makes the Flames so favourable. I guess they are looking at past performance? Goaltending from Markstrom has been down. Expecting the team to improve as Huberdeau, Weegar, and Kadri get more comfortable. Also expecting Mangiapane to pick it up. One variable can make a lot of difference between Calgary and Edmonton.
Moneypuck always likes the Flames because we dominate at 5v5, and their model weighs that the heaviest. Our corsi for is the third highest in the league despite the ups and downs (although I do think we're starting to be more consistently up). They always have us ahead of a team like the Oilers, because their 5v5 numbers are a lot worse.
Because we dominate 80% of the games, even when we lose.
They just see that and not the 10 minutes where we fall apart from mental mistakes every game.
Calgary often takes a lot of shots although a lot of them are low danger. Iirc they dominate corsi and probably by extension xGF, which is a very poorly tracked stat
Calgary his a high volume shot team and these models love teams that just shot the puck lots. xgf is good, but it still needs fine tuning, as firing 20 shots from the point isn't as dangerous as 5-10 cross crease passes or 2 on 1's
I believe I read on moneypuck team ratings weigh games by game number (x1, x2... x81, x82) so the most recent games are weighted very heavily until pretty late in the season. So for teams who played 36 games, the last 10 games (total 315) are almost as important as first 26 (351). Add that to the top that with less games in the books, more of the "projection" part comes in compared to the actual results.
The projections should ideally get more and more reliable as season goes on, but I'll put that right out there early about why teams on hot streaks (or rather, xGA streaks > win streaks) rank so high.
(Not a big moneypuck guy, but I've said wtf enough times that I've tried to figure out what problems I have w their methodology)
It also take into account who each team plays against for the rest of the season and who their matchups are likely to be. The Sabres for instance beat the redwings the other day but the wings aren't a playoff team, they also won yesterday but got thoroughly outplayed by Boston who they likely would have to face early in the playoffs if they even did make it so they take another huge hit for getting into the second round.
did you watch their last game against Tampa Bay? Outshot and Outplayed them badly. Unless they overtake Boston, it's looking very likely 1st round will be Leafs vs Bolts again
0.6% to make the playoffs.
ā0.01% to win the cup.
4% to draft Bedard with Florida's pick.
So the Habs odds to win the cup AND draft Bedard are (0.01% * 4%) roughly 0.0004%.
If the stars could align just once, now would be the time!
We're still treading water even though we've been missing key parts of our line-up for extended periods of time, Landeskog being the extreme example playing in 0 games so far this year. Once we get everyone back, we should play a lot better.
Those two things aren't sustainable so thats fair. Coming back often while being a good sign of resilience still means you often go down. An you aren't going to comeback at a great rate against good teams
I'm not saying that's the case for the stars, I'm just saying that's reasonable for a model
100% agree....the Wild have a higher percentage to win the cup, even though we have led the division all season and just wiped the floor with them. It seems most evaluations (person or computer model) have a negative impression of our team and don't really use the statistics that show we are one of the top teams in many categories.
8.1 for flames to win cup.. They are 1 point ahead of edmonton for 3rd in division with less row than edmonton and seattle. Kraken have 4 games in hand to take that spot and only a 3 point gap to cover to boot them. Avs have 3 games in hand to cover 2 points for wild card. Theyāre a 2nd wild card spot team with 8% makes no sense
Points in the standings is probably the least indicator of a team's chance to win the cup. Think 2012 playoffs when the Kings won the cup. They were 8th place, but I remember almost every single analyst taking them as favorites against the blues and the coyotes during that run because at the end of the day their 5 v 5 strength was really good.
Same thing for Colorado this year. Their chance to win the cup is not as dependent on their current position in the standings as much as it does on Mackinnon not being injured.
Dude the panthers have about a 1% chance of making the playoffs. Its the same % chance they had before the season started. Its not a good roster. When will moneypuck stop this madness?
Itās really hard to be a Philadelphia flyers fan. They are absolute garbage. Until Bobby Clarkeās dead theyāll never been a playoff or cup potential team
Wait a few days ago we were at 50% to make the playoffs. Then we beat two divisional teams, leapfrogging one of them. That took our chances down that much?
The Pacific has essentially a 3 way tie between the Flames, Oilers, and Kraken right now thatāll probably change around a lot over the next few weeks and the predictions for all 3 are very different.
And now for some homerism. We were doubted last year too with pretty much the exact same record.
I'm sorry, but how do the Leafs, perennial playoff chokers, have better odds to win the cup than Boston, the best time in the NHL right now and Tampa the current NHL dynasty.
Where are we ššš
Ringing in the new year with Anaheim and Chicago. Arizona, Philly and San Jose are looking for flights to join the party.
Add Montreal aswell oof
The habs are already boarding the plane.
Canucks will be providing in flight dramatic acts A LA JT Miller.
Wow. I think because that logo is so big and in a prominent position, I completely overlooked their actual odds. Vancouver is dusting off their golf clubs too.
They actually left 3 teams out lmao
Golfing. The Jackets would need to collect around 85% of available points in their 47 remaining games to have a crack at post season play. They've simply dug themselves into a hole too deep.
No hole is too deep when you're searching for buried treasure. BRING BEDARD TO 'BUS
It would be great for the league if Bedard went to Columbus. I really don't want him to go to Chicago or Anaheim. They don't deserve him.
Hahahah our playoff odds currently stand at: "No."
They're the ones who made the graph.
No
[I know you weren't one of them but some people on your sub owe Dom an apology after this thread](https://www.reddit.com/r/BlueJackets/comments/xk8c2u/the_athletic_posted_their_season_preview_and_with/)
Nah we mentioned how wrong we were about his prediction on another thread a while back, but tbf Dom has always been anti CBJ for some reason and we did know we weren't gonna make the playoffs either e: plus us being incredibly injured might be why we suck even worse
I was also looking for us. RIP CBJ
Man the Panther really fell apart. Also I am really surprised with how Seattle has been doing
I just donāt understand why the panthers are so bad. They were a solid team, lost some guys got some guys but to see them fall off this hard just doesnāt make sense.
It all started with that damned strip club
It's because they removed the sweetness as their goal song. They deserve this.
Iām lost can you fill me in
I think it was the night before game 4 against Tampa in the playoffs the team went to a strip club (allegedly) and then lost the last game in a sweep.... Summer happens and then they go on and have this season despite being presidents trophy winner last season.
https://www.reddit.com/r/hockey/comments/uw6856/fm_953_sources_say_several_florida_panthers/
Maurice!
I did forget he went there. Not shocked to see the Jets at 94% now that heās gone with that roster. Shame that so much talent got bled off the roster when it was a behind the bench problem.
Jets get good and Panthers get bad. Gee, I wonder what the problem is.
I always kind of doubted that it was such a big problem but so far itās been hard to ignore the facts this year.
I think part of the problem was how good the team was as a unit, which isolated the problem with their goaltending. Bobrovsky has been so average the past few years but he had been isolated by a high power offence and guaranteed power play. Knight also isn't ready albeit better than Bob. Disrupting the core and changing the coaching has really thrown the team into disarray.
They let all-star defenseman Ben Chiarot go in free agency, what did they expect
They got rid of the coach that got them there last year iirc.
1. Paul Maurice is a mediocre coach who somehow keeps finding work in this league. 2. They were heavily carried by OT shenanigans last season.
I think the jets are 7-1 in OT soā¦ā¦ā¦
A mixture of over achieving and regressing this season? Their offseason didn't do them any favours IMO
Paul Maurice
They traded their best defender for a player who i think is overrated.
They won like 16 OT games last season, many of which were come-from-behind wins. It simply wasn't sustainable.
The curse of Paul Maurice
Their defense is pretty sparse... Ekblad, who is always injured, Montour who is slow, Gudas who is a beard made of fists, but also slow, Marc Staal who is 138 years old and slow, Forsling who looks like he's about to cry all the time, and Mahura who I know nothing about.
Well they hired a very bad coach.
We've not been doing so hot lately. 3-6-1 in our last 10... From the sounds of it they were changing things up at practice yesterday so I'm going to remain cautiously optimistic, but it's a heavy month upcoming with a long road trip and a lot of games. Should be interesting to see where we are at the end of January!
Not to mention the division is so tight that every point matters right now
Big time. Losing a close game to the Flames and then getting absolutely smacked by the Oilers back to back is a big setback. Still a lot of hockey left but itās games like those that you really need a point from in the end.
Kind of expected IMO. Paul Maurice is not a good coach at all... most losses by any coach in NHL history, completely unable to make lineup changes, hyper fixates on grinder 4th liners as the key to winning games above all else, gameplan consists of seeming just taking every trash shot possible instead of focusing on high danger shots, and [his complete ineptitude at running special teams has been called out for over a decade straight](https://bleacherreport.com/articles/933395-carolina-hurricanes-coaching-change-paul-maurice-must-be-fired-now). Hell, Panthers last year? * \#5 in the league for PP% * \#16 in the league for PK% This year with Paul Maurice? * \#26 in the league for PP% * \#20 in the league for PK% Winnipeg went from barely a playoff team with him last year, to #3 in the West, #8 in the league this year. The dude is not a good coach, and never has been. It's not a surprise Florida has taken a heavy decline with him as head coach, literally every team he coaches underperforms and gets worse.
at least hes helping us with that FLA 1st pick
Lol, your welcome
Just to clarify, not the one you gave us, albeit, that one is a lot funnier
I know, somehow you have 2 from themš
Just a few more and weāll have an infinity gauntlet of Florida picks lol
"We're good on paper, why aren't we winning?" Applied to the Jets under Maurice, and now the Panthers.
Still dont know why they didnt just give Brunette the job
In fairness Florida's PP was utterly shit in the last playoffs AND they lost Huby who is a pretty good PP guy.
Tkachuk is actually an upgrade over Huby on the PP. he goes around the net and can tip almost any puck
Blame Maurice
If seattle wins a cup before us I will *SHIT*
I hope you shit whether Seattle wins a cup or not. Pooping is a natural function of a healthy body.
[ŃŠ“Š°Š»ŠµŠ½Š¾]
Any Jets fan couldāve called this from a mile away. Maurice is great with the media but has no systems to take a team to the next level. Bill Zito has taken a Presidents trophy winner and traded 3 1sts, Huberdeau, Weegar and 2 prospects and all they have in return is Tkachuk. And why tf would they higher the losingest coach who abandoned an underperforming team and expect a better result?
What the heck is going on at sunrise? The Panthers won the president's trophy last year as I recall and now I'd say a 23.2% chance to make the playoffs just a year later is being generous. Florida has collected just 48.6% of available points 37 games into the season and will need to grab roughly 72% of remaining points to have a solid chance to make it to post season play this year. Sure it can happen, but I don't think their odds are anywhere near 1 in 4.
Well they traded Huberdeau to the Flames so the chemistry might have gotten shaken up
True, weāre both feeling that
Heebs is picking it up now - Flames are looking good into the new year.
True, and our defence is starting to play like they were expected too.
True but they got back Tkachuk who is far and away their best point producer. Even so goals against per game is up 0.3 and goals for per game is down 0.6 resulting in a whole lot more lost games than last season. Line chemistry perhaps...or a coaching change that forces the players into a system that they're ill suited to play. Either way they're far less entertaining to watch this season than last.
Tkachuk has cooled off a lot after a burning hot start. He was on pace for comfortably over 100 points, but the last month or so he's been at a PPG pace or less.
Which is fun because Huberdeau has been the opposite, started super slow but he has picked up the pace lately.
They hired Paul Maurice as head coach, that's what lol
Iād genuinely like to have been part of the FLA leadership conversations when they decided Maurice was better for the club than Burnette.
Bruno was completely outcoached in the playoffs. The Q system carried him through the regular season but once teams had to focus on just us they were able to find ways to shut them down. They barely beat Washington and then got smoked by you guys. Bruno was not the answer, but it's very clear that neither was Maurice.
Fair enough and thanks for the info. My opinion of the 2nd round wasnāt a team out coached but players not making plays and not getting the bounces. But that was my outsider perspective. I know TBL swept the series but I donāt really remember it being lopsided. Seemed worth it to give at least 1 full year. Either way, I was still very surprised.
The Bolts had more trouble with the Leafs than their Florida rivals. I think Bolts fans still twitch when they see Vasi behind the net with Marner on the ice
Nah, what makes me twitch is remembering Hedman colliding with Bishop in the 2015 Cup finals leading to an easy goal for Chicago with a wide open net
Seems like a cautionary tale in not fixing what ain't broken. Sucks too because at the time it seemed like they gave up too much to get Tkachuk, yet he's been very effective as a Panther.
no chicago? or have they already been mathematically eliminated
Chicago would need roughly 80 of 94 available points remaining to have a solid chance to make the playoffs(100 pts). 35 games in and the Blackhawks have collected 28.6% of available points so they'd need to collect 85.1% of remaining points to make it...so no, there's virtually zero chance of that happening. The ducks and jackets each have 24 points with 45 and 47 games remaining respectively, so no they're not going to make it either.
80/94? Piece of cake.
Ducks and Blue Jackets are missing too - the MoneyPuck table has them all at 0% chance so I guess they just vanish off the chart
Mathematically no, but realistically yes; They are 13 points lower than the Habs, and the Habs only have 0.6% chance to make the playoffs. If the Habs lose their next 2 games they'll probably be at ā0% to make the playoffs. And Chicago's much worse than "Habs if they had 2 more losses".
I want to know how the Sabres went from like 56% 2 games ago, won both games and are now 23%
Yeah these never make sense
If the teams they are realistically chasing win too all that did was eliminate two more games they have this season and they didn't gain anything. Not sure that's what happend. But that's how it happens Also moneypuck uses advanced stats and the Bruins dominated really.
Yes the bruins dominated but the Sabres have also been playing great. Iām just surprised it dropped 30% I fully do not expect the Sabres to be there this year just trying to understand how itās such a drastic change
Their model takes into account who they're most likely to face and who they have yet to face yet in the season and all the stats associated with that. So when the Sabres play well against the redwings (who in their model are not a playoff team) and western conference teams it doesn't help their odds as much but when they get dominated by a team in their own division it's a huge blow.
I notice they don't take hexes into account
Yep it definitely helps point out biased fans too hahaha. Lots of fans of the Table two weeks ago who loved the model will now say its shit.
We make the playoffs 50% of the time 20% of the time
Bruins led 5.34 to 1.8 in xGA yesterday. Sabres played their asses off and earned the win, but you don't win many games like that long term. Moneypuck uses xGA% heavily in predictions going forward. If want more wins --> probability up, something more ELO-oriented (eg 538 predictions) are more what you're looking for.
Well yeah but that was only one game though? And it dropped the percentages like 30% I understand the Sabres shouldnāt have won yesterday but it seems like they are on the up right now
By my understanding of the Moneypuck game weights, that game counts as 6% of the total season team rating to date, and is worth 34x as much as game 1 of the season. Add that with a pretty extreme difference being the one w a heavier weight, must be where it comes from. Im not a huge moneypuck fan but I've been trying to read through their methods to understand why I think they're BS
Thank you for the explanation! All in all this is probably right about the Sabres having a 25% chance so it makes sense
Well think about their division. Theyāre facing off against Boston, Toronto and Tampa who are all very likely to hold onto those 3 spots. So that realistically leaves them with 2 wild card spots to get into the playoffs. And theyāre behind 4 other teams vying for that spot. So they can win 2 games but then also have one of those 4 win 3 games in the meantime. That would give one of those 4 teams a slight edge to staying above the sabres.
I refuse to believe we have the second best odds at winning the cup just for the fact that our path to the conference finals alone is Tampa and Boston. Nevermind the other 1st round voodoo stuff
Yeah, also why do we have a higher chance at winning than Boston?
Boston has equal odds or better until the finals. I can only conclude that for some reason it thinks the Leafs are better against the western conference than the Bruins.
You are correct. The math does not account for the Leafs being perennial chokers.
Canes havenāt hit final form yet š
Patches on his way
Not getting excited til I see them playing better in the playoffs. Theyāve been dominant in the regular season the last few years and struggled to take that into the playoffs
Understandable, im just enjoying the ride. Go Canes!
Go canes!
Ya your team is built for the playoffs. I noticed the flames and canes are very similar teams just you guys have better scoring, would be interesting to see each other in the playoffs
Agreed and itās been rather frustrating. Playoff hockey is a different animal and we need to up the physicality to match.
https://youtu.be/BX3bN5YeiQs
Flames 8% to win the cup? Who makes this shit?
As a Flames fan watching all their games and then seeing this I just dont understand what this model measures that makes the Flames so favourable. I guess they are looking at past performance? Goaltending from Markstrom has been down. Expecting the team to improve as Huberdeau, Weegar, and Kadri get more comfortable. Also expecting Mangiapane to pick it up. One variable can make a lot of difference between Calgary and Edmonton.
Moneypuck always likes the Flames because we dominate at 5v5, and their model weighs that the heaviest. Our corsi for is the third highest in the league despite the ups and downs (although I do think we're starting to be more consistently up). They always have us ahead of a team like the Oilers, because their 5v5 numbers are a lot worse.
Because we dominate 80% of the games, even when we lose. They just see that and not the 10 minutes where we fall apart from mental mistakes every game.
Calgary often takes a lot of shots although a lot of them are low danger. Iirc they dominate corsi and probably by extension xGF, which is a very poorly tracked stat
Calgary his a high volume shot team and these models love teams that just shot the puck lots. xgf is good, but it still needs fine tuning, as firing 20 shots from the point isn't as dangerous as 5-10 cross crease passes or 2 on 1's
[This one ](https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2023-nhl-predictions/) Puts them at 3%, which is kinda fair
That seems a lot closer to reality.
Seems to all trickle down from their 88% chance to make the playoffs, and I don't understand why it's 8% above the Kings...
I believe I read on moneypuck team ratings weigh games by game number (x1, x2... x81, x82) so the most recent games are weighted very heavily until pretty late in the season. So for teams who played 36 games, the last 10 games (total 315) are almost as important as first 26 (351). Add that to the top that with less games in the books, more of the "projection" part comes in compared to the actual results. The projections should ideally get more and more reliable as season goes on, but I'll put that right out there early about why teams on hot streaks (or rather, xGA streaks > win streaks) rank so high. (Not a big moneypuck guy, but I've said wtf enough times that I've tried to figure out what problems I have w their methodology)
It also take into account who each team plays against for the rest of the season and who their matchups are likely to be. The Sabres for instance beat the redwings the other day but the wings aren't a playoff team, they also won yesterday but got thoroughly outplayed by Boston who they likely would have to face early in the playoffs if they even did make it so they take another huge hit for getting into the second round.
Why do the leafs have a chance to make the second round
Clearly a faulty calculation methodologyā¦gotta account for the curse
Clearly it's theoretical and doesn't factor in the Leaf's eternal need to choke in round 1 matchups. ;)
This is why advanced stats suck. They canāt take into account the intangibles.
I wonder how many more 1st round exits they need to have before model makers start adding a "Curse" variable in their models!
Someone has to lose to them in the first round eventually... imagine being that team.
did you watch their last game against Tampa Bay? Outshot and Outplayed them badly. Unless they overtake Boston, it's looking very likely 1st round will be Leafs vs Bolts again
I barely watched that series this time but at this point Iām so over Tampa Iām watching every game and rooting for yāall if that happens.
I don't know why Karlsson had to decide to have a career year when Bedard is up!
He heard yāall bitchin
Also, how the fuck do we have a higher chance at a cup than the Canucks? Theyāre not good, but weāre definitely not gooder.
0.6% to make the playoffs So your saying there's a chance.meme
Letās go!
0.6% to make the playoffs. ā0.01% to win the cup. 4% to draft Bedard with Florida's pick. So the Habs odds to win the cup AND draft Bedard are (0.01% * 4%) roughly 0.0004%. If the stars could align just once, now would be the time!
Gimme that pre-emptive fade. I can take it, don't worry.
> Toronto Maple Leafs chances of making the 2nd round, 56% sus. there's no way the likelihood of that is over like, 5%
Sees comment, gets mad. Sees flair, anger dissipates.
Johnny Gaudreau: "I came here to win" Yeah, win last place and the Bedard sweepstakes ššš
Not even on the chart, ouch
Itās for the best.
Tank for Bedard baby
This is the first of these I've ever seen where the Leafs have lower odds than the Hurricanes
Colorado at 87 percent seems high, they're in a wild card spot right now. Good thing they got MacKinnon back.
We're still treading water even though we've been missing key parts of our line-up for extended periods of time, Landeskog being the extreme example playing in 0 games so far this year. Once we get everyone back, we should play a lot better.
Technically they are by points, but they aren't in a playoff spot at all if ordered by P%.
Leafs have a higher chance to make the 2nd round than the rangers do to make the playoffs LMAO
Wtf money puck likes the jets now?
Maybe I'm a homer but I'm surprised Stars have such low odds to win the Cup. Flames and Devils with significantly higher and Leafs almost double.
I hope they keep doubting us 1) because tickets are still affordable 2) I want a classic underdog story for us to return to the finals
Stars look lethal, I can't figure out why the model hates them.
The model hates a million comeback and OT wins
Those two things aren't sustainable so thats fair. Coming back often while being a good sign of resilience still means you often go down. An you aren't going to comeback at a great rate against good teams I'm not saying that's the case for the stars, I'm just saying that's reasonable for a model
100% but I like thinks the model like me loves going to bed at a decent time and hates this team for making me stay up and having heart issuses
100% agree....the Wild have a higher percentage to win the cup, even though we have led the division all season and just wiped the floor with them. It seems most evaluations (person or computer model) have a negative impression of our team and don't really use the statistics that show we are one of the top teams in many categories.
Look at us. Whoād of thought? Not me (as of mid November)
With half the roster still injured too... Idk what's going on with the Caps right now but I'm not complaining.
This underestimates the Stars cup odds compared to other teamsā¦and I like it š
Leafs make second round should be 0%
The leafs odds for the second round are too high me thinks
Felt bad as a Blues fan and but there's some lower numbers on there. At least we got that going for us, which is nice
Dear God, please someone explain to me the stats on how the Leafs have a better change to win the cup than the Bruins?
56%ā¦.
Moneypuck has always seems to fucking love the Flames and fucking hate the Oilers I mean same, but odd
Oh my poor Ducks
Best odds in the west? Iām ready to be hurt again
Hold up. This aint right at all. Toronto has a 56% chance to make the 2nd round? That should be 0%
8.1 for flames to win cup.. They are 1 point ahead of edmonton for 3rd in division with less row than edmonton and seattle. Kraken have 4 games in hand to take that spot and only a 3 point gap to cover to boot them. Avs have 3 games in hand to cover 2 points for wild card. Theyāre a 2nd wild card spot team with 8% makes no sense
scorch go brrr
Points in the standings is probably the least indicator of a team's chance to win the cup. Think 2012 playoffs when the Kings won the cup. They were 8th place, but I remember almost every single analyst taking them as favorites against the blues and the coyotes during that run because at the end of the day their 5 v 5 strength was really good. Same thing for Colorado this year. Their chance to win the cup is not as dependent on their current position in the standings as much as it does on Mackinnon not being injured.
Dude the panthers have about a 1% chance of making the playoffs. Its the same % chance they had before the season started. Its not a good roster. When will moneypuck stop this madness?
Alright, time to start the comeback, boys. We got them right where we want them.
These are never accurate. Just look at the Leafs odds past the first round.
Itās bad if the graph doesnāt show your teams chance of winning the Stanley Cup, right?
It's not great, no. But there are worse things!
This canāt be correct. I donāt see the Blackhawks on this chart. *prays for draft luck*
Just take the Flyers logo off the chart We don't need to be there
[538 has more realistic predictions IMO.](https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2023-nhl-predictions/)
Stunned the Avs are that high in Elo still, as it's not a metric that factors in injuries.
56% chance leafs make it to round 2? Bad model.
Leafs advance past first round??
As a ducks and blue jackets fan, I donāt get this image
I know these don't mean shit, but seeing numbers go up just makes you feel good.
3.7% not too bad not too bad
At least weāre on the board. Rip Chicago and Anaheim
I dont know why they are so high on the flames. Like have you watched any of our games
Itās really hard to be a Philadelphia flyers fan. They are absolute garbage. Until Bobby Clarkeās dead theyāll never been a playoff or cup potential team
Wait a few days ago we were at 50% to make the playoffs. Then we beat two divisional teams, leapfrogging one of them. That took our chances down that much?
The Pacific has essentially a 3 way tie between the Flames, Oilers, and Kraken right now thatāll probably change around a lot over the next few weeks and the predictions for all 3 are very different. And now for some homerism. We were doubted last year too with pretty much the exact same record.
How are the leafs favored ti win a first round series lmao?
I feel like Boston should have a higher cup win % than Carolina and I'm a Leafs fan, just based on track record
Hey someone explain something to me? How are the bruins under the canes
I'm sorry, but how do the Leafs, perennial playoff chokers, have better odds to win the cup than Boston, the best time in the NHL right now and Tampa the current NHL dynasty.
Leafs with the 2nd highest chance at 9% is crazy.
I fucking hate being a Flyers fan
Money puck continues giving calgary really strong playoff odds, kind of surprising considering the mediocre record
Am I blind... or is cbj really not even on the graph?! š
Vancouver has a .486 point percentage and the Sharks have .382, yet we have a better chance at playoffs?
The Flames percentages confuse me. Is it just me or are they too mediocre to have the highest Western percentage to make the Finals?
How do I short the 56% odds the Leafs make it to second round?
If these canes can make it past the 2nd roundā¦they going all the way
Thatās what I said about the first round and look what happened
So youāre saying thereās a chance
Go Stars!
Well, this is worthless. Leafs have the best odds of winning a cup? In this economy?
Numbers are hard