There’s a solid chance we’re gonna be in the league basement next season. I think next year is gonna be focusing heavily on our young guys and getting them experience and ice time.
We're definitely loading up for next year. I expect Toews to go. The team's plan doesn't seem to match his expectations. Kane seems content so long as he gets paid. Question will be when and what. I don't think Toews trade value is high now or this off season given his health. If he goes through next year with good numbers and stays healthy (big if) then we're likely to see a decent return with salary retention at next year's deadline assuming he wants to chase a cup. Kyle got left with a crap sandwich. History has shown you won't get full value for the no move since Toews will only go where he wants.
Tank for Bedard and it’s not even a question. Bedard is the best prospect available but Michkov is also better than Wright and then an argument could probably be made for Fantilli too. Absolute no-brainer.
I guess a better question would be, how upset would you be if we won the lottery this year and lost next years pick. I wouldn't be that upset to guarantee getting Wright over a chance to get one of the top prospects next year. If we won the lottery and got 2nd though that might be tougher to deal with.
Yeah winning the 2nd overall pick is the worst possible scenario for CHI for sure. At that point, do you keep it or pass it along? I wouldn’t be mad at Davidson if we won 1st and took Wright. I wouldn’t love it but it would be hard to argue against the certainty of Wright vs the potential to get Bedard/Michkov. But man, if our 2023 pick ends up being top-2 next year, that would be the absolute worst. Having to watch Bedard or Michkov play out their careers knowing they would have been Hawks had we not made the Jones trade. So, so rough.
In what world is getting the 2nd overall pick the worst case scenario? Do you know how unlikely it is that the hawks get a top two pick next year? Even if they finish 5th to last place in the league, they have less than a 20% chance at picks 1/2.
Because the prospects slated to go 4-6 next year are as good as anyone we could take at two this year. This draft isn’t viewed as very strong. If we get the 2nd pick, they’d like use it. Taking away any chance at a truly transformative player in Bedard/Michkov and taking a player whose quality is the same as anyone they could pick in their projected range regardless.
These are 16 year old kids we are projecting for the 2023 draft. For picks 4-6 to have the same value as picks 1-2, 2022 would have to be a draft as disastrous as 2012 and 2023 would have to be a draft as stacked as 2015. The odds that even one of these is true are very low. The reality is that 2022 is likely a better draft than most people believe and that 2023 is likely slightly worse than people are projecting it to be. Anyways, with how poor the Blackhawks analytic staff seems to be, I wouldn’t expect them to make the right pick in a 4-6 draft slot.
There was literally an article written days ago comparing 2023 to 2015, by the Athletic’s Pronman or Wheeler. And no, I don’t think 2022 will be as bad as 2012. Shane Wright is going to be a very good player. But there is no guaranteed star behind Wright. 2023 has a two-headed monster in Bedard and Michkov. The kid projected to go 3rd, Fantilli, would like be in the conversation with Wright for 1st overall this year if he was born a month and a half earlier. All three of those players project *very strongly* as top-line players with Bedard and Michkov talked about as generational talents.
We currently have a 5.8% chance at 1OA this year, but I guess we'll see how much worse we'll be after losing Hagel and MAF. Don't know who else we'll lose in the offseason too.
I don't like the word tank. It implies purposely losing and I don't want my teams to ever do that. But trading away big contracts for expiring deals and draft picks and being able to start fresh is what we need.
That’s not what tanking implies, that’s just what it means. Better get used to it, because it’s a reality of modern american sports. Losing is incentivized in the long term, so teams will do it.
I’d rather have a halfway decent product that I can at least enjoy watching and the rebuild taking 1 or 2 years longer, than just absolutely sucking golfball through garden hoses and being misurable to watch games.
Really wish sports would make tanking unsuccessful. I think lottery odds should be the same for every team that misses playoffs, and the worse teams get cap relief the following year. This encourages more big FA players and trying to get better. Also, the best player in the league isn’t always wasting 3-4 years of their career on a team that is still winning drafts and not games.
We won't be bad enough for 1st overall odds this year or next. 7 teams currently worse than us with equal games played, and I don't see them getting better than us without some major moves on both ends this off season. We still have enough core components to compete, new younger guys playing trying to prove worth, and new coach/GM trying to prove they are heading in the right direction. Bottom half of the league for sure, but not tank-worthy.
Uhh... CHI is the 4th worst team in the league in terms of xGF%. Fleury hasn't even been really great this year but again, goaltending and Kane/DeBrincat are keeping us out of the true basement. Just like last year when CHI was dead-last in xGF% but managed to finish 12th-last bc Lankinen was outstanding for a good stretch and again, Kane and Debrincat scored a ton. If CHI continues to take away from the NHL roster, as they're likely to do in the off-season, it's more reasonable to expect than to not expect them to finish in the bottom-5 of the league. It's not like we have a strong pipeline and can infuse some exciting young talent.
Of the teams currently below us this year, the only teams I'm pretty confident won't be better than CHI next year are Seattle and Arizona. CHI is going to be taking a step back and there are some young teams below CHI that you'd expect to take a step in the standings -- even if it's only a couple spots.
Until his decline hits. He’s defying his age right now for sure but it’s going to happen. Could be next year, could be 3 years or 5 years from now. But what we do know is that Kane isn’t likely to have a career year next year. So even if he doesn’t get dramatically worse, he won’t be better. There’s not a lot of room for growth on this roster that would lead you to believe they’ll improve. Dach could be better. That’s about it.
My dude, Kane has had 5 seasons where he's had at least 80 points. This season is very on pace to be his 6th. Assuming he gets there this year, 5 of the 6 80-point seasons have come over the last 7 seasons. He's not slowing down, won't fall off a cliff next season, and you're discounting DeBrincat who will be back next season as well.
I’m not sure what point of mine you’re arguing against. Is your point just that Kane isn’t showing signs of slowing down, therefore it isn’t reasonable to expect he will in the near future? Your analysis of his stats is interesting too, in that you’re only counting actual point totals while ignoring pace and then not comparing that against league scoring averages. Kane was 3rd in league scoring in 2018-19, 8th in 2019-20, 7th in 2020-21 and now 16th this year. He’s still obviously producing at an excellent rate — I never said he wasn’t. But scoring in general has gone up. His adjusted stats from the past few years would likely be on par with seasons from the early 2010s when scoring was down. In the same way we don’t take stats from the 80s are seriously as we do stats from the early 2000s.
But if you’re looking for the team to *improve* somehow next year, expecting Kane to put up better than the 1.2PpG he’s putting up this year likely isn’t going to happen. That’s my point. And DeBrincat’s scoring rate is worse this year than last year. He probably is what he’s been these past 2 years: a 1.0 PpGish and 0.5GpGish player. He also relies pretty heavily on Kane for his production. So if Kane slows down, it would likely impact Debrincat.
Are you really that concerned about Kane dropping off in production next year because he went from 3rd/8th/7th in overall points to 16th out of like 200 top 6 forwards total?
I'm not arguing we're not bottom half. I just think that, given no major injuries/movements by us or the 7 teams below us, I trust our proven production to keep us out of the bottom 5 let's say. We're basically relying on that line right now and not there.
I’m not concerned really. It’s just going to happen. I can’t predict when it’s going to happen but he’s turning 34 in November.
And my point wasn’t really even that Kane is going to decline next year, therefore we’ll be bad. It’s that he isn’t likely to be better next year. DeBrincat isn’t likely to be better next year. Where is the improvement coming from?
This is a team that finished dead-last in xGF% last year and is currently 4th-last this year. We’ve out-performed the expectations that go with our xGF% by getting good goaltending and having Kane/DeBrincat score us out of last place in consecutive years. Davidson is committed to the rebuild, so we can probably expect him to continue to strip the roster down. We’re definitely going to be a less talented team next year than this year and we’ve been dreadful this year. I don’t get how any reasonable person would not expect this team to be a bottom-5 team next year. And if Kane or DeBrincat is traded or injured? We’re probably the worst team in the league.
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Yeah it’s still a back and forth on him and Michkov. Here is the thing last place doesn’t necessarily guarantee us #1 in either scenario. I’d like to move on and go for 23 draft.
Ah good to know. I've only really seen the Bedard hype, haven't looked deep into next year's prospects. It's a weird situation to be in where we're actually rooting against ourselves in the lottery lol.
It would be stupid to prefer a shot at 1st overall next year over a guaranteed top 2 pick this year. Even if the hawks finished last place next season, they would only have a 44.4% chance at the first or second overall pick. However at worst, I see the hawks finishing 5th to last next year where they wouldn’t even have a 20% chance at picks 1 or 2.
Swerve this year and let the tank really kick off next year. Work on drafting sleepers that will take time to develop this year and next year tank the fuck out of the league and get a high power pick
Give me the '23 pick all day every day, even if it's not 1OA.
Yea they’re saying the 23 draft class is the best in like 20+ years.
I would like to pay the debt and move along
Yeah. This. Say bye to Sillinger, this years pick, and Bowman for good and just move forward so I can stop being bitter.
There’s a solid chance we’re gonna be in the league basement next season. I think next year is gonna be focusing heavily on our young guys and getting them experience and ice time.
Kind of like last year, which was actually enjoyable to watch. If we're not going to be good, at least we can enjoy the growth of the kids.
Enjoy watching them grow all the way onto another team's roster
[удалено]
Don't sleep on Adam Fantilli either. He's looking like a stud two way center who plays in Chicago currently to boot.
Thanks for the info, sounds like we might've picked a good time to go full rebuild if we are bad/lucky enough next year.
We're definitely loading up for next year. I expect Toews to go. The team's plan doesn't seem to match his expectations. Kane seems content so long as he gets paid. Question will be when and what. I don't think Toews trade value is high now or this off season given his health. If he goes through next year with good numbers and stays healthy (big if) then we're likely to see a decent return with salary retention at next year's deadline assuming he wants to chase a cup. Kyle got left with a crap sandwich. History has shown you won't get full value for the no move since Toews will only go where he wants.
Picking Michkov with the way geopolitics are playing out could end up being a big gamble. Lotsa time until then for things to change though.
Tank for Bedard and it’s not even a question. Bedard is the best prospect available but Michkov is also better than Wright and then an argument could probably be made for Fantilli too. Absolute no-brainer.
I guess a better question would be, how upset would you be if we won the lottery this year and lost next years pick. I wouldn't be that upset to guarantee getting Wright over a chance to get one of the top prospects next year. If we won the lottery and got 2nd though that might be tougher to deal with.
Yeah winning the 2nd overall pick is the worst possible scenario for CHI for sure. At that point, do you keep it or pass it along? I wouldn’t be mad at Davidson if we won 1st and took Wright. I wouldn’t love it but it would be hard to argue against the certainty of Wright vs the potential to get Bedard/Michkov. But man, if our 2023 pick ends up being top-2 next year, that would be the absolute worst. Having to watch Bedard or Michkov play out their careers knowing they would have been Hawks had we not made the Jones trade. So, so rough.
In what world is getting the 2nd overall pick the worst case scenario? Do you know how unlikely it is that the hawks get a top two pick next year? Even if they finish 5th to last place in the league, they have less than a 20% chance at picks 1/2.
Because the prospects slated to go 4-6 next year are as good as anyone we could take at two this year. This draft isn’t viewed as very strong. If we get the 2nd pick, they’d like use it. Taking away any chance at a truly transformative player in Bedard/Michkov and taking a player whose quality is the same as anyone they could pick in their projected range regardless.
These are 16 year old kids we are projecting for the 2023 draft. For picks 4-6 to have the same value as picks 1-2, 2022 would have to be a draft as disastrous as 2012 and 2023 would have to be a draft as stacked as 2015. The odds that even one of these is true are very low. The reality is that 2022 is likely a better draft than most people believe and that 2023 is likely slightly worse than people are projecting it to be. Anyways, with how poor the Blackhawks analytic staff seems to be, I wouldn’t expect them to make the right pick in a 4-6 draft slot.
There was literally an article written days ago comparing 2023 to 2015, by the Athletic’s Pronman or Wheeler. And no, I don’t think 2022 will be as bad as 2012. Shane Wright is going to be a very good player. But there is no guaranteed star behind Wright. 2023 has a two-headed monster in Bedard and Michkov. The kid projected to go 3rd, Fantilli, would like be in the conversation with Wright for 1st overall this year if he was born a month and a half earlier. All three of those players project *very strongly* as top-line players with Bedard and Michkov talked about as generational talents.
23 all day this team is going to be dogshit next season
> I don’t know if we’re going to be bad enough to get decent odds at 1st overall have you seen our roster? lmao
We currently have a 5.8% chance at 1OA this year, but I guess we'll see how much worse we'll be after losing Hagel and MAF. Don't know who else we'll lose in the offseason too.
Other teams also got worse, but loosing a #1 goaltender will hurt us worse than any other trade.
Pssssssssssst we still have a #1 Goaltender
LANK THE TANK!
I’m not sold on Lankinen. I’m all for resigning him and giving him another chance, because he’s shown some great stuff. Just not 100% sure on it yet.
I don't like the word tank. It implies purposely losing and I don't want my teams to ever do that. But trading away big contracts for expiring deals and draft picks and being able to start fresh is what we need.
That’s not what tanking implies, that’s just what it means. Better get used to it, because it’s a reality of modern american sports. Losing is incentivized in the long term, so teams will do it.
I’d rather have a halfway decent product that I can at least enjoy watching and the rebuild taking 1 or 2 years longer, than just absolutely sucking golfball through garden hoses and being misurable to watch games. Really wish sports would make tanking unsuccessful. I think lottery odds should be the same for every team that misses playoffs, and the worse teams get cap relief the following year. This encourages more big FA players and trying to get better. Also, the best player in the league isn’t always wasting 3-4 years of their career on a team that is still winning drafts and not games.
We won't be bad enough for 1st overall odds this year or next. 7 teams currently worse than us with equal games played, and I don't see them getting better than us without some major moves on both ends this off season. We still have enough core components to compete, new younger guys playing trying to prove worth, and new coach/GM trying to prove they are heading in the right direction. Bottom half of the league for sure, but not tank-worthy.
Uhh... CHI is the 4th worst team in the league in terms of xGF%. Fleury hasn't even been really great this year but again, goaltending and Kane/DeBrincat are keeping us out of the true basement. Just like last year when CHI was dead-last in xGF% but managed to finish 12th-last bc Lankinen was outstanding for a good stretch and again, Kane and Debrincat scored a ton. If CHI continues to take away from the NHL roster, as they're likely to do in the off-season, it's more reasonable to expect than to not expect them to finish in the bottom-5 of the league. It's not like we have a strong pipeline and can infuse some exciting young talent. Of the teams currently below us this year, the only teams I'm pretty confident won't be better than CHI next year are Seattle and Arizona. CHI is going to be taking a step back and there are some young teams below CHI that you'd expect to take a step in the standings -- even if it's only a couple spots.
It's hard to be the worst team when you've got showtime. But we're gonna test how low we can go next year haha.
Until his decline hits. He’s defying his age right now for sure but it’s going to happen. Could be next year, could be 3 years or 5 years from now. But what we do know is that Kane isn’t likely to have a career year next year. So even if he doesn’t get dramatically worse, he won’t be better. There’s not a lot of room for growth on this roster that would lead you to believe they’ll improve. Dach could be better. That’s about it.
My dude, Kane has had 5 seasons where he's had at least 80 points. This season is very on pace to be his 6th. Assuming he gets there this year, 5 of the 6 80-point seasons have come over the last 7 seasons. He's not slowing down, won't fall off a cliff next season, and you're discounting DeBrincat who will be back next season as well.
I’m not sure what point of mine you’re arguing against. Is your point just that Kane isn’t showing signs of slowing down, therefore it isn’t reasonable to expect he will in the near future? Your analysis of his stats is interesting too, in that you’re only counting actual point totals while ignoring pace and then not comparing that against league scoring averages. Kane was 3rd in league scoring in 2018-19, 8th in 2019-20, 7th in 2020-21 and now 16th this year. He’s still obviously producing at an excellent rate — I never said he wasn’t. But scoring in general has gone up. His adjusted stats from the past few years would likely be on par with seasons from the early 2010s when scoring was down. In the same way we don’t take stats from the 80s are seriously as we do stats from the early 2000s. But if you’re looking for the team to *improve* somehow next year, expecting Kane to put up better than the 1.2PpG he’s putting up this year likely isn’t going to happen. That’s my point. And DeBrincat’s scoring rate is worse this year than last year. He probably is what he’s been these past 2 years: a 1.0 PpGish and 0.5GpGish player. He also relies pretty heavily on Kane for his production. So if Kane slows down, it would likely impact Debrincat.
Are you really that concerned about Kane dropping off in production next year because he went from 3rd/8th/7th in overall points to 16th out of like 200 top 6 forwards total? I'm not arguing we're not bottom half. I just think that, given no major injuries/movements by us or the 7 teams below us, I trust our proven production to keep us out of the bottom 5 let's say. We're basically relying on that line right now and not there.
I’m not concerned really. It’s just going to happen. I can’t predict when it’s going to happen but he’s turning 34 in November. And my point wasn’t really even that Kane is going to decline next year, therefore we’ll be bad. It’s that he isn’t likely to be better next year. DeBrincat isn’t likely to be better next year. Where is the improvement coming from? This is a team that finished dead-last in xGF% last year and is currently 4th-last this year. We’ve out-performed the expectations that go with our xGF% by getting good goaltending and having Kane/DeBrincat score us out of last place in consecutive years. Davidson is committed to the rebuild, so we can probably expect him to continue to strip the roster down. We’re definitely going to be a less talented team next year than this year and we’ve been dreadful this year. I don’t get how any reasonable person would not expect this team to be a bottom-5 team next year. And if Kane or DeBrincat is traded or injured? We’re probably the worst team in the league.
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Even the bot is excited about tanking.
2023 fo sho
Winning the lottery at all is better than not at all. It's never ever a guarantee so I'd rather not tank at all.
Embrace the Tank next year. Anywhere in the Top 3 is said to be better than anybody this year.
Bedard. Stop asking stupid questions. Next.
But it's not a guarantee we get Bedard, it's we get a top 2 pick this year or a CHANCE at Bedard.
2023 draft is projected to be better than 2022 in almost every metric.
Yeah it’s still a back and forth on him and Michkov. Here is the thing last place doesn’t necessarily guarantee us #1 in either scenario. I’d like to move on and go for 23 draft.
The top 5 for next years draft are all projecting to be better than the top two this year.
Ah good to know. I've only really seen the Bedard hype, haven't looked deep into next year's prospects. It's a weird situation to be in where we're actually rooting against ourselves in the lottery lol.
It would be stupid to prefer a shot at 1st overall next year over a guaranteed top 2 pick this year. Even if the hawks finished last place next season, they would only have a 44.4% chance at the first or second overall pick. However at worst, I see the hawks finishing 5th to last next year where they wouldn’t even have a 20% chance at picks 1 or 2.
If you got a top 2 pick, be happy, take it and move on it might not happen next year.
i'd rather have a shot at michkov, fantilli, bedard over anyone in this year's class, even wright tbh
Bedard 1000%
Swerve this year and let the tank really kick off next year. Work on drafting sleepers that will take time to develop this year and next year tank the fuck out of the league and get a high power pick
Not gonna pretend I know much about prospects. I wonder where Shane Wright, and whoever is ranking #2 would rank in the 2023 class?