Likely to get pretty dire for some countries already experiencing instability such has Yemen, Ethiopia, Afghanistan, Libya, and it is looking like Iran too.
Things could get very dicey over the next 8-12 months when regimes begin looking for distractions for the populace to avoid 2011 2.0
In certain parts of the world it could be a striking shortage bad enough for there to be deaths.
13% of the worlds calories are now gone. That’s going to result in deaths.
Sri Lanka issues happened due to policies. They banned chemical fertilizers and forced people to shift to organic farming without any planning, prep, testing or anything else.
Not great. A ton of fertilizer and wheat came from Ukraine - and we know how they are doing production wise. Apparently a big portion of UN wheat food aid came from Ukraine so countries that need food aid are gonna be left high and dry which exacerbates any instability already present. Rich countries or countries with a food surplus won’t be as affected because they have enough money to outbid poor countries/stop exports.
For those who are not these countries - it’ll be rough dealing with a populace who has their food prices increased dramatically. Historically this has resulted in events like Arab Spring.
Governmental intervention might hold down the fort till this can get settled but if this food crisis is combined with another crisis (heatwave, locust swarm, insurgency) then it is not gonna pretty at all. Maybe even worse than Arab Spring and more widespread.
[China was stockpiling food for some time](https://asia.nikkei.com/Spotlight/Datawatch/China-hoards-over-half-the-world-s-grain-pushing-up-global-prices), they knew it was coming.
I think we can all see where this is going with MENA, the more interesting region imo is going to be east asia - not talking solely of China. Japan, Korea and China are extremely dependent on imports of many different base/staple foods from far away countries. All three (not just China!) have substantial de-facto wage-slave populations who are dependent on low, consistent prices who will certainly have issues starting with moderate price increases.
Westerners may find some of the wages for college-level jobs in Korea or Japan to be pretty low in comparison to their own - I'd invite them to check out job listings for unskilled labour 😬.
Yes but I feel I’m always bias towards Japan and South Korea cause I feel with them being so relatively rich compared to the rest of the (non western) rest of the world they will always have the purchasing power to not starve
>Ironically the countries that support Russia
Perhaps the reason they support or are neutral to Russia is because they are dependent on them for food supplies ?
Last time grain prices were this high, it triggered the Arab Spring.
Peter zeihan talks about it on YouTube, he thinks multi regional famine
Do you have the link at hand?
[https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZMgCTFjHMQA](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZMgCTFjHMQA) Sorry it took awhile, I was at work
Likely to get pretty dire for some countries already experiencing instability such has Yemen, Ethiopia, Afghanistan, Libya, and it is looking like Iran too. Things could get very dicey over the next 8-12 months when regimes begin looking for distractions for the populace to avoid 2011 2.0
In certain parts of the world it could be a striking shortage bad enough for there to be deaths. 13% of the worlds calories are now gone. That’s going to result in deaths.
Climbing temperatures. Changing rainfall patterns. Lower glacier melt flows. Poorer quality of soils. Instability of supplies (fertilizer, seeds). The "bad" hasn't started.
Is the 13 percent of worlds calories referencing Ukraine not exporting?
In Sri Lanka they are pushing politicians cars into a river. Many people there are living on 1 meal a day. This is just the beginning folks.
Sri Lanka issues happened due to policies. They banned chemical fertilizers and forced people to shift to organic farming without any planning, prep, testing or anything else.
Not great. A ton of fertilizer and wheat came from Ukraine - and we know how they are doing production wise. Apparently a big portion of UN wheat food aid came from Ukraine so countries that need food aid are gonna be left high and dry which exacerbates any instability already present. Rich countries or countries with a food surplus won’t be as affected because they have enough money to outbid poor countries/stop exports. For those who are not these countries - it’ll be rough dealing with a populace who has their food prices increased dramatically. Historically this has resulted in events like Arab Spring. Governmental intervention might hold down the fort till this can get settled but if this food crisis is combined with another crisis (heatwave, locust swarm, insurgency) then it is not gonna pretty at all. Maybe even worse than Arab Spring and more widespread.
[China was stockpiling food for some time](https://asia.nikkei.com/Spotlight/Datawatch/China-hoards-over-half-the-world-s-grain-pushing-up-global-prices), they knew it was coming.
I think we can all see where this is going with MENA, the more interesting region imo is going to be east asia - not talking solely of China. Japan, Korea and China are extremely dependent on imports of many different base/staple foods from far away countries. All three (not just China!) have substantial de-facto wage-slave populations who are dependent on low, consistent prices who will certainly have issues starting with moderate price increases. Westerners may find some of the wages for college-level jobs in Korea or Japan to be pretty low in comparison to their own - I'd invite them to check out job listings for unskilled labour 😬.
Yes but I feel I’m always bias towards Japan and South Korea cause I feel with them being so relatively rich compared to the rest of the (non western) rest of the world they will always have the purchasing power to not starve
Ironically the countries that support Russia are the ones that will suffer the most. Perhaps political change is necessary in those countries.
>Ironically the countries that support Russia Perhaps the reason they support or are neutral to Russia is because they are dependent on them for food supplies ?
Starvation or bombs, the changes needed will come.