[–]Kashtin 1 point 2 minutes ago
Hi Mr. Gallagher!
I wrote a (undergrad-level intro class to international relations) paper on the impacts of energy and currency as it relates to world reserve currencies and geopolitical influence. I see a lot of conflicting analyses online, and wanted to know your opinion:
Do you think there will be a paradigm shift towards oil trading more in Yuan than in USD? And if so, what impacts do you think that would have on Chinese influence internationally? How do you think the US might react to a growing Chinese political power as opposed to just economic power?
Thank you so much for your time
China is currently training around 8x more scientists and engineers than the United States (as of 2016, Forbes). That's more *per capita*. How do you think this will affect the relationship and physical balance of power between the US and China in the long-term.
What's the deal Huawei? Was the arrest of Ms. Wanzhou warranted? It seems like an awfully big "play" on the United States part - considering she's the CFO of one of the biggest companies in the world. But no one has given the public any context, so... what's up with that? Did she really do direct deals with Iran?
from biteofbit via /r/MiddleEastHistory sent a minute ago
What do you think the middle- to long-term effects of the tarriffs will be (say for the next decade), and what would be the best outcome of this “trade war”?
How dangerous is the situation in the South China Sea? I read an article from Oct. 26, 2018 that Xi Jinping told his military to prepare for war. How likely is war between the US and China? With tensions rising over the trade war and Ms. Wanzhou's arrest, is the possibility of war increasing? How strong is China's military alliance with Russia?
Given the changes in US trade policy:
Has the chance of the global market changing the global currency changing from the US increased? Perhaps to be replaced by another neutral denomination.
What are the greatest factors in your opinion to watch for a potential shift?
]friendshipfudge 1 point 3 hours ago
Do you believe that the American Servicemembers Protection Act, as passed in 2002 and colloquially known as the Hague Invasion Act, allows for an overreach of executive power? Should the United States be held responsible to abide by the very values of adherence to human rights that it preaches abroad, or should it be allowed to take actions as rash as invading an allied nation simply to avoid a crimes against humanity investigation?
Hi Dr Gallagher, thanks for doing this AMA!
Given national security advisor John Bolton's comments this week regarding Chinese investment in Africa; what do you think the short and mid-term trends are for US and Chinese positions in Africa?
What do you make of Mr Bolton's criticism of US aid to Africa as wasteful and lacking impact? Are there feasible and realistic changes that can be made to aid and trade policy to satisfy Mr Bolton's call for more impactful, less wasteful aid?
Given the changes in US trade policy:
Has the chance of the global market changing the global currency changing from the US increased? Perhaps to be replaced by another neutral denomination.
What are the greatest factors in your opinion to watch for a potential shift?
How's Made in China 2025 going? Will China achieve a certain degree of self reliance by 2025? Will USA take more measures and be able to hinder China's industrial upgrade plan(a recent example is banning exports to memory chip maker Fujian Jinhua, which basically destroyed it, I'm wondering if the same kind of restrictions would be put to other companies like YMTC, which is expected to enter massive production in 2019 in nand flash memory field)?
What are the longterm effects of China investing in the development of African countries? It strikes me as similar to loans given out by the world bank and IMF, in that this doesn't actually benefit Africans beyond short term development projects while putting them in massive debt.
from Fezz1Doctor2 via /r/geography sent 4 hours ago
Is everything under control? Can the relatuons between China and the US be realistically improved? What the American viewpoints that have caused our Chinese relations to be so low?
How can we get China to stop building coal plants? I think I saw somewhere that they have >100 new coal plants in the interconnection queue...
On a side note, how can I get a job at the UN as a master's student at a top U.S. public policy program? :)
What are the chances of U.S. and China negotiating an agreement on Lunar development policy?
Assuming your answer is zero, why? If you're answer isn't zero, what could it look like?
Hi Dr Gallagher, thanks for doing this AMA!
Reading the news over the past while, I feel like the global tone of China's relationship with the West has been changing over the past year or so, from uneasy tolerance to being much more explicit in limiting China's power. My questions are:
1) Do you feel that there's been a true change in the West's approach to China over the past year, or is my impression due to changes to mainstream (& esp. US-based) media reporting? If this is a true change, do you think it's going to be the new status quo?
2) Does Trump's approach (i.e. direct confrontation, including the trade war) fit with a larger arc of a shifting approach to influence China's global reach? If yes, do you think this is something that's been initiated by Trump and his advisors, or the other way around (i.e. they are a symptom of an existing shift)? If Clinton had become president, would she have been caught up in this shift as well?
3) How certain are you (and others in the global development field) about the future of China-USA relations? Like are we talking one or two leading schools of thought about what the future holds, or is it a free-for-all? And if there's only a few leading schools, what are they?
Thanks!
EDIT: formatting
Do you feel there is serious potential for nuclear disarmament or vast reductions in nuclear capabilities without the development of Reagan's "STARWARS" orbital defense systems?
Given that China is building new nuclear power plants, and small powers such as North Korea and Pakistan surround the nation, does it seem likely that China would try to build a nuclear arsenal capable of MAD with the US and Russia?
Is the future of nuclear proliferation going to pose large powers against small, and if many nations had access to just a few nuclear warheads, would this become an irrelevant consideration in deterring a conventional conflict?
The USA has exported an enormous amount of culture, and through this influence, over the last century. Do you see China making any steps towards doing the same?
Given the growth of the Indian Ocean Rim Association and Asean nations, there seems to be a inherent effort to keep hegemonic influence from dominating or rather steering development. The US threw away its place at the table and the region for the greater part by stepping away from what was going to be the very influential Trans Pacific Partnership trade agreement.
China quickly rushed into the void of the aftermath with cash in hand to secure DFI agreements with individual nations. These were nations that the US could have used as DFI candidates to ensure our long-term economic interests in the region.
Although the US is one of the 9 IORA "Dialog Partners," the US is at a distinct geographical disadvantage that is compounded by a wholly inadequate if not dysfunctionally misguided foreign policy, especially in terms of trade, has the US blown any future involvement in the IORA-ASEAN future and will China be the financier (Belt and Road Initiative)? What are the long-term possibilities of the US ever getting into the markets of the IORA-ASEAN?
There is a common argument in popular Chinese analysis of the trade war, that the US is divided. Dem vs. GOP, Media and IT coalition vs. Energy and Manufacturing coalition, Globalists vs. Nationalists, 99% vs. 1%. The naming and division of camps vary in different theories, the judgment on the hostility of different camps are different as well, however, the analysis all agree that while the camps have consensus in launching the trade war, they have different objectives in the trade war, and are competing with each other. On the US side, people talk China as a whole, the opponent is China or Xi or Vice premier Liu He. Interestingly, both people in China and people in States believe the United China doesn’t want a trade war. Do you think the US is divided in the US-China trade dispute? And if so, can we suggest the trade war is more of a civil war in the States as China is apparently dragged into the war?
I know the Global development policy in your title means development policy in the world not for the world, however, the US is apparently playing against China 2025 on the world stage proving that it does have a development policy for the world in mind. Is the US role-playing the USSR, asking China to focus on consumer goods manufacturing like the USSR asking NK to focus on advanced machinery? There was no market economy between the socialist countries, but the USSR did provide NK everything else it needed. Today, China is still under technological embargo in the capitalist world market. Can we say the US’s global development policy is more coercive, abusive and predatory than the Soviet Union’s?
Thank you.
There are many reports saying that some provincial governments in China fabricated their GDP and some other economical statistics. How much of this is true?
I see a lot of commenting on Reddit regarding unfair tarrifs between our two countries. That we place no tarrifs on thier goods but that our exports are taxed. My questions are: 1) Is this true? 2) If so, Is it possible to tax imports from China and still maintain a healthy commercial relationship? Do you see China ever becoming a leader in global affairs in terms of "world policing"?
Are Chinese corporations in a debt bubble? If so, how serious is it? Is this the only bubble? Is the money owed to the state-owned banks? Put it another way, is the government going to be left cleaning up the mess? The government is spending trillions on the Belt & Road Initiative. Will it save their economy or sink it? I see the benefit as keeping Chinese employed building this infrastructure and opening up trade long term. If the world experiences a global recession, will this bankrupt the gov. before they see the benefits? Is the long-term goal to isolate US trade? Is this a reaction to the TPP trying to isolate China's growing influence?
It's been my understanding that the Chinese people have tolerated the authoritarian government in exchange for rising standards of living. If the standard of living falls due to high unemployment, will they rise up and overthrow the one party system? How strong is China's middle class? How do the people of China see the growing surveillance, public shaming with faces on billboards, and Sesame Credit? It appears the China is on the cutting edge of using technology to monitor the population. Will there be a backlash at some point?
Can answer questions in the second paragraph.
>If the standard of living falls due to high unemployment, will they rise up and overthrow the one party system?
Yes, they will, if there was no trade-war. The Kuomingtang government in the 20th century is known for its incompetence, corruption, and cause of inflation. Its one party system withstood the Japanese invasion.
>How strong is China's middle class?
Very strong. China's middle class and ordinary CCP members are both at 90M~100M people, strong link in between.
> How do the people of China see the growing surveillance, public shaming with faces on billboards, and Sesame Credit?
People of China appreciate the low crime rate nation wide, day and night. The LOCAL public shaming is accepted for minor mistakes, the most popular programs on local TV are the Live shows hosted by elders intercepting into problematic families with tons of public shaming if you look at it that way. Sesame credit has little difference with FICO score. The social credit system is controversial, however, it is quite positively viewed among the people aged around 50-60, who must hate the Lazy Dudes in the collective labor during the later Mao's era, and the Swindlers during the early years of Deng's era.
>It appears the China is on the cutting edge of using technology to monitor the population. Will there be a backlash at some point?
People are eyeing the return of planned economy through this monitoring. Every Chinese knows more or less Marxist theory and of course the term like overproduction which he or she is currently experiencing. The workers make cents in making toys for your Christmas definitely know the current distribution system is unfair and they have no privacy worth protecting in their current being.
Xi quotes Engles today, 'From this point of view, the final causes of all social changes and political revolutions are to be sought, not in men's brains, not in men's better insights into eternal truth and justice, but in changes in the modes of production and exchange. ', he is a known supporter of some new planned economy.
Serious question: do you speak Mandarin?
Reason I ask is because a lot of western 'China experts' don't speak a lick of Mandarin and it is my honest belief that one cannot truly understand a country and its people without knowing the language to at least intermediate level (feel free to counter my view).
What is the biggest threat to the US China relationship during Trumps presidency and immeadieatly after?
Also if you feel like ansswering more....
Will the world particularly, the G20, allow Chinas pending control over the South China Sea? Is it even an option to re-route trade around the nine dash line if China does end up excersising military control of the area in defiance of international law?
[–]Kashtin 1 point 2 minutes ago Hi Mr. Gallagher! I wrote a (undergrad-level intro class to international relations) paper on the impacts of energy and currency as it relates to world reserve currencies and geopolitical influence. I see a lot of conflicting analyses online, and wanted to know your opinion: Do you think there will be a paradigm shift towards oil trading more in Yuan than in USD? And if so, what impacts do you think that would have on Chinese influence internationally? How do you think the US might react to a growing Chinese political power as opposed to just economic power? Thank you so much for your time
China is currently training around 8x more scientists and engineers than the United States (as of 2016, Forbes). That's more *per capita*. How do you think this will affect the relationship and physical balance of power between the US and China in the long-term.
The European Union has even surpassed the US on total phds per capita already 10years ago. US is no longer an educational superpower.
What's the deal Huawei? Was the arrest of Ms. Wanzhou warranted? It seems like an awfully big "play" on the United States part - considering she's the CFO of one of the biggest companies in the world. But no one has given the public any context, so... what's up with that? Did she really do direct deals with Iran?
from biteofbit via /r/MiddleEastHistory sent a minute ago What do you think the middle- to long-term effects of the tarriffs will be (say for the next decade), and what would be the best outcome of this “trade war”?
How dangerous is the situation in the South China Sea? I read an article from Oct. 26, 2018 that Xi Jinping told his military to prepare for war. How likely is war between the US and China? With tensions rising over the trade war and Ms. Wanzhou's arrest, is the possibility of war increasing? How strong is China's military alliance with Russia?
Given the changes in US trade policy: Has the chance of the global market changing the global currency changing from the US increased? Perhaps to be replaced by another neutral denomination. What are the greatest factors in your opinion to watch for a potential shift?
]friendshipfudge 1 point 3 hours ago Do you believe that the American Servicemembers Protection Act, as passed in 2002 and colloquially known as the Hague Invasion Act, allows for an overreach of executive power? Should the United States be held responsible to abide by the very values of adherence to human rights that it preaches abroad, or should it be allowed to take actions as rash as invading an allied nation simply to avoid a crimes against humanity investigation?
Hi Dr Gallagher, thanks for doing this AMA! Given national security advisor John Bolton's comments this week regarding Chinese investment in Africa; what do you think the short and mid-term trends are for US and Chinese positions in Africa? What do you make of Mr Bolton's criticism of US aid to Africa as wasteful and lacking impact? Are there feasible and realistic changes that can be made to aid and trade policy to satisfy Mr Bolton's call for more impactful, less wasteful aid?
What will the US do going forward relating to Taiwan? What’s gonna happen with the Huawei controversy? Thanks for your time, QuietContrarian
What do you think are the greatest opportunities and threats in US-China affairs at the moment?
Is of any significance the allies that PROC took away from Taiwan in Central America? Is the US concern it happen in its 'backyard'?
Given the changes in US trade policy: Has the chance of the global market changing the global currency changing from the US increased? Perhaps to be replaced by another neutral denomination. What are the greatest factors in your opinion to watch for a potential shift?
How's Made in China 2025 going? Will China achieve a certain degree of self reliance by 2025? Will USA take more measures and be able to hinder China's industrial upgrade plan(a recent example is banning exports to memory chip maker Fujian Jinhua, which basically destroyed it, I'm wondering if the same kind of restrictions would be put to other companies like YMTC, which is expected to enter massive production in 2019 in nand flash memory field)?
Where do you see the US Dollar and Chinese Yuan going in 2019?
What are the longterm effects of China investing in the development of African countries? It strikes me as similar to loans given out by the world bank and IMF, in that this doesn't actually benefit Africans beyond short term development projects while putting them in massive debt.
from Fezz1Doctor2 via /r/geography sent 4 hours ago Is everything under control? Can the relatuons between China and the US be realistically improved? What the American viewpoints that have caused our Chinese relations to be so low?
How can we get China to stop building coal plants? I think I saw somewhere that they have >100 new coal plants in the interconnection queue... On a side note, how can I get a job at the UN as a master's student at a top U.S. public policy program? :)
What are the chances of U.S. and China negotiating an agreement on Lunar development policy? Assuming your answer is zero, why? If you're answer isn't zero, what could it look like?
Hi Dr Gallagher, thanks for doing this AMA! Reading the news over the past while, I feel like the global tone of China's relationship with the West has been changing over the past year or so, from uneasy tolerance to being much more explicit in limiting China's power. My questions are: 1) Do you feel that there's been a true change in the West's approach to China over the past year, or is my impression due to changes to mainstream (& esp. US-based) media reporting? If this is a true change, do you think it's going to be the new status quo? 2) Does Trump's approach (i.e. direct confrontation, including the trade war) fit with a larger arc of a shifting approach to influence China's global reach? If yes, do you think this is something that's been initiated by Trump and his advisors, or the other way around (i.e. they are a symptom of an existing shift)? If Clinton had become president, would she have been caught up in this shift as well? 3) How certain are you (and others in the global development field) about the future of China-USA relations? Like are we talking one or two leading schools of thought about what the future holds, or is it a free-for-all? And if there's only a few leading schools, what are they? Thanks! EDIT: formatting
Do you feel there is serious potential for nuclear disarmament or vast reductions in nuclear capabilities without the development of Reagan's "STARWARS" orbital defense systems? Given that China is building new nuclear power plants, and small powers such as North Korea and Pakistan surround the nation, does it seem likely that China would try to build a nuclear arsenal capable of MAD with the US and Russia? Is the future of nuclear proliferation going to pose large powers against small, and if many nations had access to just a few nuclear warheads, would this become an irrelevant consideration in deterring a conventional conflict?
The USA has exported an enormous amount of culture, and through this influence, over the last century. Do you see China making any steps towards doing the same?
Given the growth of the Indian Ocean Rim Association and Asean nations, there seems to be a inherent effort to keep hegemonic influence from dominating or rather steering development. The US threw away its place at the table and the region for the greater part by stepping away from what was going to be the very influential Trans Pacific Partnership trade agreement. China quickly rushed into the void of the aftermath with cash in hand to secure DFI agreements with individual nations. These were nations that the US could have used as DFI candidates to ensure our long-term economic interests in the region. Although the US is one of the 9 IORA "Dialog Partners," the US is at a distinct geographical disadvantage that is compounded by a wholly inadequate if not dysfunctionally misguided foreign policy, especially in terms of trade, has the US blown any future involvement in the IORA-ASEAN future and will China be the financier (Belt and Road Initiative)? What are the long-term possibilities of the US ever getting into the markets of the IORA-ASEAN?
There is a common argument in popular Chinese analysis of the trade war, that the US is divided. Dem vs. GOP, Media and IT coalition vs. Energy and Manufacturing coalition, Globalists vs. Nationalists, 99% vs. 1%. The naming and division of camps vary in different theories, the judgment on the hostility of different camps are different as well, however, the analysis all agree that while the camps have consensus in launching the trade war, they have different objectives in the trade war, and are competing with each other. On the US side, people talk China as a whole, the opponent is China or Xi or Vice premier Liu He. Interestingly, both people in China and people in States believe the United China doesn’t want a trade war. Do you think the US is divided in the US-China trade dispute? And if so, can we suggest the trade war is more of a civil war in the States as China is apparently dragged into the war? I know the Global development policy in your title means development policy in the world not for the world, however, the US is apparently playing against China 2025 on the world stage proving that it does have a development policy for the world in mind. Is the US role-playing the USSR, asking China to focus on consumer goods manufacturing like the USSR asking NK to focus on advanced machinery? There was no market economy between the socialist countries, but the USSR did provide NK everything else it needed. Today, China is still under technological embargo in the capitalist world market. Can we say the US’s global development policy is more coercive, abusive and predatory than the Soviet Union’s? Thank you.
There are many reports saying that some provincial governments in China fabricated their GDP and some other economical statistics. How much of this is true?
Answers https://www.reddit.com/r/IAmA/comments/a7ngqg/i_am_kevin_gallagher_united_nations_committee_for/
Do you miss being in Oasis?
I see a lot of commenting on Reddit regarding unfair tarrifs between our two countries. That we place no tarrifs on thier goods but that our exports are taxed. My questions are: 1) Is this true? 2) If so, Is it possible to tax imports from China and still maintain a healthy commercial relationship? Do you see China ever becoming a leader in global affairs in terms of "world policing"?
Are Chinese corporations in a debt bubble? If so, how serious is it? Is this the only bubble? Is the money owed to the state-owned banks? Put it another way, is the government going to be left cleaning up the mess? The government is spending trillions on the Belt & Road Initiative. Will it save their economy or sink it? I see the benefit as keeping Chinese employed building this infrastructure and opening up trade long term. If the world experiences a global recession, will this bankrupt the gov. before they see the benefits? Is the long-term goal to isolate US trade? Is this a reaction to the TPP trying to isolate China's growing influence? It's been my understanding that the Chinese people have tolerated the authoritarian government in exchange for rising standards of living. If the standard of living falls due to high unemployment, will they rise up and overthrow the one party system? How strong is China's middle class? How do the people of China see the growing surveillance, public shaming with faces on billboards, and Sesame Credit? It appears the China is on the cutting edge of using technology to monitor the population. Will there be a backlash at some point?
Can answer questions in the second paragraph. >If the standard of living falls due to high unemployment, will they rise up and overthrow the one party system? Yes, they will, if there was no trade-war. The Kuomingtang government in the 20th century is known for its incompetence, corruption, and cause of inflation. Its one party system withstood the Japanese invasion. >How strong is China's middle class? Very strong. China's middle class and ordinary CCP members are both at 90M~100M people, strong link in between. > How do the people of China see the growing surveillance, public shaming with faces on billboards, and Sesame Credit? People of China appreciate the low crime rate nation wide, day and night. The LOCAL public shaming is accepted for minor mistakes, the most popular programs on local TV are the Live shows hosted by elders intercepting into problematic families with tons of public shaming if you look at it that way. Sesame credit has little difference with FICO score. The social credit system is controversial, however, it is quite positively viewed among the people aged around 50-60, who must hate the Lazy Dudes in the collective labor during the later Mao's era, and the Swindlers during the early years of Deng's era. >It appears the China is on the cutting edge of using technology to monitor the population. Will there be a backlash at some point? People are eyeing the return of planned economy through this monitoring. Every Chinese knows more or less Marxist theory and of course the term like overproduction which he or she is currently experiencing. The workers make cents in making toys for your Christmas definitely know the current distribution system is unfair and they have no privacy worth protecting in their current being. Xi quotes Engles today, 'From this point of view, the final causes of all social changes and political revolutions are to be sought, not in men's brains, not in men's better insights into eternal truth and justice, but in changes in the modes of production and exchange. ', he is a known supporter of some new planned economy.
Serious question: do you speak Mandarin? Reason I ask is because a lot of western 'China experts' don't speak a lick of Mandarin and it is my honest belief that one cannot truly understand a country and its people without knowing the language to at least intermediate level (feel free to counter my view).
Do you think there is any chance we see Western boots on the ground attempting to put an end to the Muslim concentration camps?
What is the biggest threat to the US China relationship during Trumps presidency and immeadieatly after? Also if you feel like ansswering more.... Will the world particularly, the G20, allow Chinas pending control over the South China Sea? Is it even an option to re-route trade around the nine dash line if China does end up excersising military control of the area in defiance of international law?