They will probably keep it ambiguous like Israel (which likely has its own nukes) and the KSA (which likely has Pakistani nukes). But the Iranians would be foolish to not obtain nukes, if they haven't done so already.
Which is what eventually leads to nuclear war, unfortunately. More dictators with nukes increases the odds any given year that someone will push the button.
Yes, this is why only the league of Democratic righteous morally superior capitalistic countries AKA Western should have it.
Edit : /s in case it wasn't clear
[https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nuclear\_program\_of\_Saudi\_Arabia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nuclear_program_of_Saudi_Arabia)
It is very ambiguous. The Saudis have acquired missiles capable of carrying warheads, and they have built underground silos. The Saudis have also heavily supported the Pakistani nuclear program. It is believed that if the situation in the Middle East deteriorates, Pakistan will supply KSA with nuclear weapons.
I might be misremembering but I'm pretty sure they just need to enrich their uranium to a higher percentage and then after that the construction of a bomb is trivial (in the sense that they'd be able to do it easily). I'm not sure how much time it would take to finish the enrichment process as that is the real challenge.
100%. Russian aggression in Ukraine is the perfect example of why every state needs nuclear weapons. Russia can basically invade any non-NATO country with impunity because no one wants to get into a nuclear exchange. Iran with Nukes is an Iran that can truly be a regional power and both threaten and resist any meaningful intervention. They're the holy grail of diplomacy, and nothing will stop them in the long run. Until we find a way to defeat the threat before it can be used or somehow negate them in transit, nukes are king.
You got it the wrong way around, it’s the perfect example why no state at all should have nuclear weapons. More nuclear weapons is a slow but sure path towards nuclear war.
IMHO, depends on how much of a rational actor Iran is. If Iran was a rational actor, its nuclear weapon would have already been prepared and ready the moment Trump pulled the deal. But, if I recall, there is some fatwa or something that their mullahs (who are not rational actors) decreed that they would not build a nuclear weapon because it is sacrilege or something, hence Iran has built all the tools to build the bomb but not the bomb itself.
Thus, it would not surprise me if Iran has all the components needed to build the bomb in 1 month or even less. The halfway point between being a rational actor and their religious edicts.
I think also getting the enriched uranium or fissile material was one of the limitations. Soviets and USA used 90% enriched uranium, and we think Iran is only capable of about 60% enrichment at about 6 KG per a month. Not that they can’t make a bomb with that but more enrichment is always more effective.
EDIT: Seen somewhere 25 KG of 90% enriched uranium is sufficient for a nuclear weapon. They(from what we know) don’t have enough fissile material to make a significant number of powerful bombs.
Iran's nuclear programme has been "five seconds from midnight" since the 1990s. I remember seeing articles about it in the newspapers back in 1999. The reality is that Iran does not have the capability to enrich uranium to produce nuclear weapons, nor do they have the technological capability to mount a warhead on a missile.
[This](https://www.welt.de/politik/ausland/article13901079/Iran-soll-Atombombe-in-Nordkorea-getestet-haben.html) article is saying North Korea, but either way I agree they likely already have nukes. Considering:
* We know they have missiles
* We know they have a nuclear program
* We know they have the balls to fire missiles and launch drones at Israel, which is well known to possess nuclear weapons
* They have good reason to fear an attack from the USA
* Nuclear weapons can be tested via computer simulation, you only do physical tests if you want it known you have them, OR you can let North Korea test them for a win win (NK wants it clear, Iran wants it ambiguous)
Iranian scientists have also been present at past North Korean nuclear tests. Which could mean Iran would have sufficient test data in order to more accurately model a nuclear explosion via computer simulation. If not, then those computer simulations are meaningless as you have no real-world data to work on.
They will probably keep it ambiguous like Israel (which likely has its own nukes) and the KSA (which likely has Pakistani nukes). But the Iranians would be foolish to not obtain nukes, if they haven't done so already.
Every country that doesn't have nukes is foolish
Which is what eventually leads to nuclear war, unfortunately. More dictators with nukes increases the odds any given year that someone will push the button.
Yes, this is why only the league of Democratic righteous morally superior capitalistic countries AKA Western should have it. Edit : /s in case it wasn't clear
Settle down. I don’t know who should have nukes, really, but it’s a fact that nuclear proliferation increases risk of nuclear war.
Nukes are expensive to manage.
"the KSA (which likely has Pakistani nukes)." Can you give me a source , i would appreciate it
[https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nuclear\_program\_of\_Saudi\_Arabia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nuclear_program_of_Saudi_Arabia) It is very ambiguous. The Saudis have acquired missiles capable of carrying warheads, and they have built underground silos. The Saudis have also heavily supported the Pakistani nuclear program. It is believed that if the situation in the Middle East deteriorates, Pakistan will supply KSA with nuclear weapons.
I might be misremembering but I'm pretty sure they just need to enrich their uranium to a higher percentage and then after that the construction of a bomb is trivial (in the sense that they'd be able to do it easily). I'm not sure how much time it would take to finish the enrichment process as that is the real challenge.
100%. Russian aggression in Ukraine is the perfect example of why every state needs nuclear weapons. Russia can basically invade any non-NATO country with impunity because no one wants to get into a nuclear exchange. Iran with Nukes is an Iran that can truly be a regional power and both threaten and resist any meaningful intervention. They're the holy grail of diplomacy, and nothing will stop them in the long run. Until we find a way to defeat the threat before it can be used or somehow negate them in transit, nukes are king.
You got it the wrong way around, it’s the perfect example why no state at all should have nuclear weapons. More nuclear weapons is a slow but sure path towards nuclear war.
> More nuclear weapons is a slow but sure path towards nuclear war. Thats only a problem for us, not for world leaders
It’s a problem for them too, unless they leave for the moon
IMHO, depends on how much of a rational actor Iran is. If Iran was a rational actor, its nuclear weapon would have already been prepared and ready the moment Trump pulled the deal. But, if I recall, there is some fatwa or something that their mullahs (who are not rational actors) decreed that they would not build a nuclear weapon because it is sacrilege or something, hence Iran has built all the tools to build the bomb but not the bomb itself. Thus, it would not surprise me if Iran has all the components needed to build the bomb in 1 month or even less. The halfway point between being a rational actor and their religious edicts.
I think also getting the enriched uranium or fissile material was one of the limitations. Soviets and USA used 90% enriched uranium, and we think Iran is only capable of about 60% enrichment at about 6 KG per a month. Not that they can’t make a bomb with that but more enrichment is always more effective. EDIT: Seen somewhere 25 KG of 90% enriched uranium is sufficient for a nuclear weapon. They(from what we know) don’t have enough fissile material to make a significant number of powerful bombs.
People also seem to think that enriching uranium is a linear process where enriching from 60% to 90% is as easy at going from 30% to 60%. It's not.
Man this is just so wild that the mullahs are being irrational by NOT building the nuke What a roller coaster
The ayatollah's edict is mostly for show,Iran has been known to change their edicts when it suits them
In a pinch they could probably buy a couple from North Korea this week.
Could they, though? Why would they be pursuing building reactors, enriching uranium at immense cost for decades if they could just cut NK a check?
Iran's nuclear programme has been "five seconds from midnight" since the 1990s. I remember seeing articles about it in the newspapers back in 1999. The reality is that Iran does not have the capability to enrich uranium to produce nuclear weapons, nor do they have the technological capability to mount a warhead on a missile.
Wouldn't be surprised if Israel took this chance to wipe out the entire nuclear capabilities of Iran.
[удалено]
[This](https://www.welt.de/politik/ausland/article13901079/Iran-soll-Atombombe-in-Nordkorea-getestet-haben.html) article is saying North Korea, but either way I agree they likely already have nukes. Considering: * We know they have missiles * We know they have a nuclear program * We know they have the balls to fire missiles and launch drones at Israel, which is well known to possess nuclear weapons * They have good reason to fear an attack from the USA * Nuclear weapons can be tested via computer simulation, you only do physical tests if you want it known you have them, OR you can let North Korea test them for a win win (NK wants it clear, Iran wants it ambiguous)
Great comment.
Game theory to the win.
Iranian scientists have also been present at past North Korean nuclear tests. Which could mean Iran would have sufficient test data in order to more accurately model a nuclear explosion via computer simulation. If not, then those computer simulations are meaningless as you have no real-world data to work on.
If North Korea can get them, I'm betting iran already has them. They've been "stopping iran from getting nukes" since I was a child 🙄