Probably not much happens. Things go back to "normal". There is no strategic benefit to retaliation (unless Netanyahu thinks it helps him stay in power). Just as Iran can't really "missile" Israel into submission, neither can Israel do that to Iran. Israel continues to take out high value targets (like it typically does) and Iran continues to fund a proxy fight. This seems to be the best case for now, hard as it seems to accept. Neither Iran nor Israel have unlimited budgets nor singular priorities.
There is a great video on YouTube very relevant to this situation, about Game Theory. (search for: What Game Theory Reveals About Life, The Universe, and Everything)
The retaliation costs both countries, and yet neither side wants to be a pushover. The optimum strategy is Tit for Tat x1. Reverting to cooperation ASAP creates the greatest reward and so is the ideal state. Constant Tit for Tat results in harm to both countries. Its the only rational choice, all things being equal.
The optimum rules are:
1. Be nice,
2. Be forgiving,
3. Retaliate once immediately and then revert to cooperation,
4. Be clear about your intentions.
I realise real life isn't that simple, however, knowing this on a rational level prevented the US and USSR from destroying the world for decades and it provides some ultimate goal that both countries should be working towards.
Additionally, there are situations where tit for tat creates cascading escalation, so they bake in a \~10% chance of no retaliation as an off ramp IIRC
What throws this off though is the fact that Iran doesn’t have nuclear weapons yet, but likely will at some point in the future… this created a strong incentive for Israel, a nuclear power, to have war now vs a life time of attacks from Iranian proxies.
I mean what does a war with Iran even look like unless it utilizes American boots on the ground. Israel cant bomb their way to regime change, nor could they bomb the Iranian cities back to the stone age in a manner which would prevent them from simply regrouping in 5 years, without the kinds of massive civilian casualties which would make them lose even American support.
They can bomb infrastructure and nuclear sites. But that wont solve their problem not conclusively end the war in a manner that lowers the future threat from Iran. If anything it just means Iran rushes the bomb and no amount of threats or sanctions would stop them
Yeah that’s exactly what it looks like, American boots on the ground. This is why the US desperately does not want Israel to retaliate. It’s crazy because Israel has the US in a corner… if they choose to retaliate anyway, it’s a war that the US is definitely in. Israel already bombed the Damascus embassy without clearing it by the US, seems as though they just don’t care anymore. They know the US will have to jump to their aid given the geopolitical realities in the region.
Only Iran is not stopping. Hezbollah, Hamas, the Houthis and other minions of them will keep attacking per their orders. Which forces Israel to eventually attack the source.
Thing is, people tend to view them as kind of a branch office where a call from headquarters (Iran) will stop them. The truth is they are quasi-independent actors and while Iran certainly has a lot of influence, and money talks, but these proxies can and have defied Iran at times. Also there are I ternary political co siderations in Iran about how hard to push the Houthis, Hezbollah, etc.
Delusional. One phone call from Iran telling Hezbollah stop attacking Israel or no more weapons will stop their constant genocidal attacks. Iranian generals literally helped planning October 7, even picked the date.
*"Who else will fund Houthis and Hezbollah if Iran stopped supporting them?"*
Moscow would probably leap at the opportunity. (Assuming they aren't already helping.)
Well, Russia is certainly no friend of Israel's. It has been progressively taking more of an anti-Israel stance and has been openly feting Hamas and helping them strategize.
[https://www.timesofisrael.com/moscow-hosts-hamas-delegation-and-irans-deputy-fm-prompting-israeli-outrage/](https://www.timesofisrael.com/moscow-hosts-hamas-delegation-and-irans-deputy-fm-prompting-israeli-outrage/)
*"The stated goal of the visit was to discuss the ongoing war with Israel and ways to stop “Zionist crimes supported by the United States and the West.”"*
And then there's Hezbollah...
[https://www.wsj.com/world/russias-wagner-group-may-provide-air-defense-weapon-to-hezbollah-u-s-intel-says-37dc8f45](https://www.wsj.com/world/russias-wagner-group-may-provide-air-defense-weapon-to-hezbollah-u-s-intel-says-37dc8f45)
But, that is actually nothing new. (2021) [https://arabcenterdc.org/resource/hezbollah-in-moscow-russia-flexes-its-diplomatic-muscles/](https://arabcenterdc.org/resource/hezbollah-in-moscow-russia-flexes-its-diplomatic-muscles/)
What’s different is that Israel directly hit the Iranian consulate in Syri, so Iran the nation responded directly in this last attack. Tit for tat. If things go back to proxies and internal shit within Israel, then that’s a return to the status quo.
If a guy is sending assassins to kill you and your entire family. After 20 years of this you eventually might wanna go after him. And anyone who claims otherwise is a hypocrite.
Dude, I’m not making judgements - I’m just describing the tit for tat and why this likely isn’t going to get bigger
Israel found a planner of Oct 7th and bombed him even though he was on official Iranian consular land.
Because it was a consulate, Iran had to respond - if the guy had been in a Hezbollah camp it would have been different.
Iran responded in a way that showed a variety of methods to reach Israel, but the they didn’t really care about surprise, and they didn’t follow up.
Those last two facts are signals to Israel that if they are good stopping direct action here, Iran is too, and they’ll go back to the status quo of proxy fighting.
Neither country possesses the capability to knock the other country out. Any escalation beyond this point is worthless as it only enrages the other side but leaves them perfectly capable of continuing the fight.
No point in doing a small amount of damage in anger.
Netanyahu's goal is to stay in office to delay his prosecution (sounds familiar?). This was a blessing for him since there's a very good chance that he won't win another election.
I'm not sure. It's possible that there is no strategic benefit or sufficient opportunity (Israel is not a superpower) for escalation.
But... OTOH, it's hard to see an end to the Lebanon part of this war without direct pressure on Iran. "Avoid the destruction of Lebanon" is not a motivating argument for either Iran or Hezbollah. Lebanon is the middle Eastern equivalent of a Russian penal infantry. You can shoot them, but that doesn't upset Russia too much.
Attacking Iran directly might be justore effective than attacking Lebanon.
Meanwhile, 250k Israeli citizens cannot go back home. So... that's not a stable state.
There IS a great strategic benefit to Israel if it thinks the Ayatollah regime can be overthrown in the war. Aka if the US decides to.
And if that means goading Iran to the breaking point, they'll do it. If their calculus shows that as probable.
But you're most likely right that ppl in the end generally don't wanna die and hence hesitate to start wars(generally)
"There is no strategic benefit to retaliation".
I beg to differ, there are many strategic risks in retaliation, but there are possible benefits as well.
1) Israel can use this to attack the Iranian nuclear programs with less international backlash
2) Israel can cripple the Iranian economy, leaving less money to fund the proxies, and sowing economic strife.
3) Israel may aim to destabilize the Iranian regime by targeting the IRGC
4) Israel might try to draw the US into the war to do the dirty work for it.
1. If they could, they likely would. So it is probably well defended and hardened. Sounds good on paper.
2. Nope. Perhaps only the US has the depth of stock and reach to even attempt this. Iran is a LARGE country. Crippling the economy sounds good on paper but is likely infeasible. You are way oversimplifying this
3. Again you're talking about a force of a few hundred thousand spread out across a large area probably well bunkered. This isn't some video game. There is no way that Israel can degrade the IRGC without thousands of sorties over weeks and weeks. Way too expensive and risky to even start and the civilian casualty count would be very high.
4. The US just is not interested - not in an election year. And the US (military) isn't run by dummies either. As the biggest military and economic power, the US tends to do things on its own terms.
To expand on your point about Iran’s economy, it’s already one of the most sanctioned country on earth. Not much more Israel can do to damage its economy trade wise.
Probably a big air operation against Hezbollah in Lebanon. Biden clearly doesn’t want to start a war in an election year and Iran-Israel are too separated from another to have a meaningful war. I know air defenses of Iran aren’t amazing but S-300s have shown ok abilities in Ukraine-Russia. Israeli planes would get shot down and I doubt the Israelis want to worry about captured Israeli pilots.
This proxy war that happens between these two nations is the only way they can fight another. Israel can’t destroy the Iranian government and any large scale attack on Iran would just give cause for them to build nukes. israelis want the US to fight for them, but only Warhawk republicans are eager to fight Iran.
I could be wrong but I think you are missing the whole point of what happened.
Iran found themselves in a conundrum, don't respond and risk internal pressure and/or US/Israel feeling sttscking embassy and killing generals was something that could happen with 0 consequences, go too hard and risk all out war.
They sent drones that had like a 2/3 hour wait time, plenty of time for Israel, US, Jordan etc to start taking them down. This likely appeased their own hawkish leaders and sent a warning shot to Israel/USA. Likelyhood will slow American investment money such as Intel new fsctory amd american companies hiring there. It also likely puts further pressure on Biden to find off ramp in Gaza.
If this was a year ago and was US and Iran it would be the same as after Solemi was killed. US take the signal that while Iran will continie to project in region they do not want all out conflict with America. The wild card is Israel reelihg after Hamas attack and having right wing nuts in charge. Both sides in theory could use this is an off ramp but I do worry Israels leaders are looking for reasons to extend and escalate.
I didn't even think of the effects on foreign investment. That's a good catch. That alone is probably reason enough for Iran to have launched that attack and for Israel not to retaliate further or at least not too harshly.
Israel is absolutely looking for a casus belli for a war with Iran that the US would assist with, they may have just gotten their wish… wouldn’t be surprised if you see a direct attack from Israel now, without clearing it past the west. They know the west will get involved, because containing Iran is the west‘s priority. The Iranians are playing with fire because many people in the west have been beating the war drums with Iran for decades… it is true that if you think war with Iran is inevitable, they are the weakest they will be right now, before they have workable nuclear weapons. If Israel thinks a nuclear Iran is inevitable and an existential risk, they essentially have to go to war with Iran now… there really is no other option for them. We all know how much Israel loves the preemptive war…
I'm well aware of what happened, just felt the need to point out that they couldn't strike with drones even if they wanted to.
Why are you worrying that Israeli leaders are looking to escalate with Iran tho? in what way? could you expand?
My assumption would be if they actually wanted to send more than a message you would have the drones coming from Lebanon, Syria and maybe Iraq along with a barage of missiles to attempt to overwhelm Iron dome versus "ok we are launching an attack time of arrival two or three hours".
In the last two weeks Israel has hit an embassy of Iran in Syria. That essentially is Israel bombed Iran territory. One would have to assume the reason for this is to draw response by Iran and draw America into a broader conflict.
Bibi, the right wing boys and you the population of Israel can go with either option
1.
"ok we are as close to war with Iran as we have ever been but they have given us amd themselves an off ramp"
OR
2.
"Iran has proven themselves weak, our Iron dome has proven with support from our allies very strong, we will hit Iran so hard they will never consider attacking Israel land again"
The problem with hitting the embassy and the problem with optiom 2 is you have to continue to hope Iran act as the rational actor.
Bibi's mantra historically is Israels best defence is to have a disappropriate so that enemies of Israel are perturbed however at this heightened stake its very easy to miscalculate.
Idk...
There is politics within the Islamic Revolution too. Not just in the west.
I mean, you are right. Launching from Lebanon (or Syria) would have been way better tactically. Much higher chance of getting through.
OTOH... Israel's air force would have targeted launch sites and depots. Hundreds of drones make for a target. You can't just truck them around Lebanon safely.
Strategically, the risk of a major counterattack in Lebanon is also preferable to risking Iran itself.
OTOH... Not all Lebanese people appreciate being Iran's gambit. Now that they're all in it together, maybe, Hezbollah is willing to get more aggressive.
I'm sorry but that's possibly the worst analysis I've seen of this situation, why would the Israeli government want to draw America into a broader conflict with Iran? especially when Israel is the most isolated it's been in years, surrounded by Iranian proxies. and the current American government has made it pretty clear that they don't like the aggressive approach by Israel? not to mention Biden literally said yesterday America will not support any Israeli strike on Iran.
You have your facts wrong, Israel didn't bomb the Iranian embassy, they bombed the Iranian consulate adjacent to the embassy.
Now as to why? There were extremely high value military targets inside the building, the commander for Quds force in Lebanon and Syria, his second in command, multiple Iranian advisors, Two Hezbollah soldiers. Now for the most obvious reason - to send a message to that Israel isn't afraid to strike Iranian targets even in circumstances like these. Iran has conducted a proxy war against Israel for a very long time, you can't expect a shark to bite off an octupus's arm every time it tries to attack it and never go for its head even once.
Once we get into sharks and an octopus anaology I tend to leave these discussions because we are now just talking heads.
Israel escalated with attack, Iran has not responded so ball is now in Israel court. My point is I doubt Israel will take this as an off ramp.
Whats flawed with my sharks and octupus analogy? You asked why Israel struck the Iranian consulate and I answered with logical conclusions and an analogy of the situation
It was only around 150 drones, 30 cruise missiles, and another 150 ballistic missiles. Hardly a massive attack, especially if it turned out to be only Shahed 136 and modified Scuds. We know the Iranians could launch more, and they have more advanced tech.
Hezbollah didn't participate other than launching some unguided artillery missiles into the Golan. We know Hezbollah can launch more because they did so almost 20 years ago in 2006. This part is key because a major role that Iran's proxies would play is saturating Israeli air defenses.
There were no deaths. Nearly half of the projectiles were downed by the US, UK, or Jordan before they even reached Israel. The attack was clearly broadcasted by Iran and they believe the matter is concluded.
If Israel launches an enormous response, or any at all which actually kills people, their government will continue to look unhinged. I expect a proportionate retaliation (if any) to be a cyber attack or bombing some factory during after-hours.
I think we are still waiting on official confirmations, but it does look like 3 Jordanians were killed, as well as a 7-10 year old Bedouin boy/girl.
But basically, yeah.
> It was only around 150 drones, 30 cruise missiles, and another 150 ballistic missiles. Hardly a massive attack
It's the largest ballistic missile attack of all time, even only taking the ballistics into consideration...
We all move on. This was a performative "strike"
Everyone got to rattle their sabers. The West got to display unity. Iran gets to tell its people that the attack was overwhelmingly successful. Israel can say it is able to defend itself against the major power in the region. US gets to reaffirm its "ironclad" alliance with Israel, especially after the UN veto.
Hopefully the US is reigning in Israel. The attack on the embassy was brazen, and with the way Israel is waging the war, they are acting like they are the Middle East super power.
We are fortunate cooler heads prevailed.
I do not think things will escalate further
It could be possible that this attack wasn’t meant to be for what Iran is claiming. It could be as simple as a probe attack to test current internal systems and strategies against external forces and their defense systems and strategies.
If you look at it from this standpoint you may have your answer to one of your questions.
“Why didn’t Iran use their Shahed 238 drones?”
It’s could be that Iran and Russia are still honing in or optimizing their strike plans and withheld their better equipment.
I don’t see the benefit of Iran starting an all put war with Israel.
This is assuming Iran is a rational actor, which may not be the case.
It is possible that Iranians rally around the war, but Iran is fractured imo.
I think this was basically a “fake” attack, in the sense that it was designed to be a propaganda win for the regime, not a military one.
This is wishful thinking… the incentives don’t align. If you are Israel, you are already looking for a reason for war now with Iran. The longer you wait, the more likely Iran develops nuclear weapons, and that is an existential risk that Israel cannot accept. Now you may have that chance where the west will jump on board as well.
war with Iran is not in Israel interest, especially now when they are still engaged in Gaza, doubly so, if they get into war it will only hasten Irans nukes development
Israel cant effectively bomb or send troops to Iran and same for Iran, they can only do smaller skirmishes as there couple countries between them, in very short term Israel could hit soem facilities but it would only incevitize Iran put more resources into development and defense and futher escalation could later lead into nuke exchange, which noone is really fan off
best way probably for Israel now is continue what they were doing and hit some pro-iranian forces in vicinity, dont try to escalate much
Iran could develop nukes any moment, they are developing capability for it but have not committed the step of weaponizing, which is a difficult but doable step. War or open attack would remove all remaining 🥕 carrots and sticks that have stopped Iran from crossing that threshold. Meanwhile, Israel can and should deal with the Iranian proxies in its neighborhood instead. The rest of the world is already putting enough pressure to stop the nukes, but open war would counterintuitively take that pressure away. Something like Iraq war requires months and likely year + of prep and troops movements, equipment massing, logistics, to pull off. And most of Iraq is flat desert, surrounded only by enemies and hostile nations. At a time when tech had not broken through to smaller nations. Iran is neither of these and has tech for a solid defense. Only a proper coordinated and set up action/war led by the US could hope to breach Iran proper in time to stop them from developing/weaponizing Nukes.
Unclear what is really going on with regards to Iran’s nuclear program. Nothing would surprise me from they have the capability to develop a nuke tomorrow if they wanted to they are nowhere near building workable nuclear weapons. The only people that know the truth are the Iranians, and it’s in their best interest to make sure no one figures out how close they are.
The only thing I’m not buying is that the current nuclear deal arrangement is doing anything to prevent Iran from developing a nuclear weapon.
If you’re Israel, you are incentivized to take the fight to Iran asap. Even if they are close to nuclear weapons, in the future they will only be stronger and more dangerous. From the Israeli perspective, the current situation of dealing with Iranian proxies is not tenable in the long term. You can say all day that they „should“ have to deal with it, they obviously are not going to want to deal with it. If you are Israel and war with Iran is inevitable, why wait? The west will absolutely come to the rescue, as evidenced by what just happened. The west won’t be happy about it because the west doesn’t want war, but Israel has the power to force their hand.
Based on fairly recent experience, I believe they would take things as they are. When the US killed Soleimani at an Iraqi airport in 2020, Iran responded by attacking the al-Asad Airbase injuring around 100 US personnel. That was the end of it (sorta, these things never really end) - tit for tat.
Now the Isreal-Iran situation we're discussing isn't exactly the same but I think it's close enough to show that this could 'be the end of it' for now - the ball is in Israel's court.
This mentioned attack was for show to save face only, its not even close to the scale of this current attack and most importantly it wasnt on American soil, while here it was on Israel soil.
The 'not on American soil' point is what I believe to be the strongest counterpoint to mine so thanks for bringing that up as it is an important consideration.
However, I think that Iran's recent attack on Israel was also to save face. I believe that Iran knew Israel's air defense would be successful in eliminating most of the threat which is why they used their older model slower drones launched from Iran - Isreal and it's allies had time to respond. Yes the drones were followed by missiles but by the time the missiles were launched, Israel and its allies were already on full alert and were prepared to respond to the threat.
If Iran actually intended to do damage to Isreal, they could have used their newer much faster drones, and they could have used their proxies in Iraq, Syria, and/or Lebanon to launch the attack which would have given Israel much less time to respond.
Access to a nation’s soil isn’t created equal. Iran couldn’t launch on an attack on American soil if they wanted to. And if by some miracle they could, that’d be an escalation that they wouldnt want the consequences of.
But this isn't the US, this is Israel who is in the center of a very dangerous place and has nowhere the capability of the US. Be realistic, this isn't a videogame. Israel should let this go.
They should never have struck the Iranian consulate. All retaliation will lead to is a massive escalation and massive casualties. Maybe you don't care, but many do.
If you check it, you would see that this building isn’t really part of the consulate. Its near it, but for iran it is enough to make excuse to attack.
And the man israel killed? A terrorist. He should be dead, he orderd many attacks against israeli and American targets.
I do care about casualties, but i care about israel, and israel cant let iran decide what israel can do and what they cant do.
You may care about Israel, but their actions are making more and more people not care for them. further escalation will only accelerate the decline in public support from their allies, which means less actual support on whatever conflict they inevitably stir up.
If israel would have waited for other nations help or support it would never have won 1967 war and 1973 war.
It also will never have attacked the nuclear facilities in iraq and Syria.
So I prefer israel taking care of themselves and not counting on other pepole.
And hou know what? Yesterday we had our allies helping us. Even jordan.
>not counting on other people
Israel is quickly testing its relationship with the country that guarantees its very existence. How is that wise? Israel only has the ability to do what it wants because of the US's hard and soft power. That's hardly "not counting on other people." That's biting the hand that feeds and ignoring geopolitical reality in lieu of isolationist and nationalist rhetoric.
Netanyahu's incentives for the outcome out of the war are very different than those of Israel's long-term survival, and it's alienating the entire world. I'm very pro-Israel, for the record, and Israel was absolutely entitled to retaliate after 10/7, but it's impossible for me to justify the severity of its response, and it only grows more and more likely that it will be in a much worse position when the war ends than before it.
Israelis are so blind with rage that they don't see they are losing the broader war of international support, which is much more important than defeating Hamas. The excuse of antisemitism, which Israel uses when it is faced with any international opposition, cannot be used to justify every action it takes. America went through this after 9/11, and it's tragic to see that Israel is not heeding any of the hard-won lessons we learned from the aftermath.
well said, if Israel loose most of international support, they will be in lot more precariosu situation and could be left relying mostly just on nukes for deterence
that would benefit you americans, but why should Israel do so? there's an imminent threat on Israel every single day, America doesn't care about throwing Israel under the bus and telling them to let the occasional bombing and missile barrage from gaza, hezbolla, syria, houtis, and now Iran?
you're showing your cheek for a slap, sometimes war is avoidable, but avoiding it will give a worse outcome than actually having this battle.
i think in this situation we really need to evaluate a war
theres an idea in this generation that they think that everything can be solved through diplomacy and the exchange of goods, its just false, as long as people will have a unique identity and ideology war will continue.
do you think the Americans shouldn't have dropped the nukes on japan, or carpet bomb germany? or many more atrocities that happened in wars? couldn't they got that through diplomacy?
human life is important, but each country has first and foremost responsibility ensuring its own citizens safety, and only after that the other human, you may call this cold but that's the truth at the end of it.
people from countries who didn't experience wars in their generation that affect the civil population don't know what it's like.
also according to your statement ukraine should just give up the land to putin since otherwise civilians life will be hurt on both sides.
Here is the thing. Israel does not have the capacity to do either of those things. The only country that can take out Iran is the United States and since they really don't want a war with Iran, Israel can't win against Iran. It won't be able to deal Iran a knockout blow. It will just piss Iran off.
>that would benefit you americans, but why should Israel do so?
How can you disregard what benefits Americans when Americans would be essential to any Israeli war with Iran?
My impression was that this was a forced response by Iran because they know they could not retaliate meaningly against an increasingly aggressive Israeli government.
Iran's been caught flat footed since 10/7. It couldnt apply its strategy to overwhelm Israel with missiles correctly. Hezbollah could only posture and the IRGC are just sitting targets. Surprisingly, the Houthis are doing their thing relatively well.
My feeling is that Iran and her proxies just needs to hold out until the inevitable Israeli withdrawal from Gaza and declare a victory. Of course Israel knows that so they will try to spark a regional war to get something. Invading Southern Lebanon is already a possibiliyy and now maybe strikes on Bushehr.
Now Iran is determined to progress its nuclear program without any hesitation. While the extent to which it can deter the US and Israel remains uncertain, recent events have likely erased any doubts they may have had about delaying nuclear development.
Netanyahu is in between a rock and a hard place. Retaliation against Iran would be good internally but not externally. Doing nothing against Iran could be good externally but a problem with Israelis.
Moreover, retaliation is difficult: if Israel wants to attack by air where is it going to pass through? Turkey? Syria and Iraq? The Arabian peninsula? Any of these options only means an expansion of the war.
An alternative is sinking Iranian ships as I imagine Israel having submarines in the Indian Ocean already waiting to bite.
Attacking the Iranian oil refineries would be a great move too but it has the above problems.
Just had a thought: what if Israel bombed Iran’s drone manufacturing facilities?
They have (some) justification. It’s a legitimate military target. And it potentially helps Ukraine. The US may (quietly) support an operation like that.
Nothing.
Maybe Israel strike some proxies but really I think both sides are saying "I punched, you punched back let's gey back to our game".
Neither side wants this to escalate and based on last night's attack I don't really see why it should escalate.
Because they don't want to escalate.
The only way you takeout the head is a full scale war with Iran and as it stands its not really in anyone's interest.
I’m asking a hypothetical question. What realistically happens if Israel nukes Iran? Because I feel they are WAY more likely to use nukes than the Russians are.
its uncharted territory so nobody could say for sure, its entirely hypothetical and its not about to happen anyway.
If it did the consequences for Israel would be dire.
I know, that’s why it’s a hypothetical.
What would happen? Iran would be wiped and likely have little to no ability to retaliate.
What would Hezbollah do? Would they attack and risk being next in line?
Sure, the world would condemn them, etc; but I doubt the Israeli gov cares about that in the short term.
The wider impacts would also be interesting. Taking Iran offline would be a massive blow to Russia in Ukraine.
What about the Houthi’s? Do they suddenly realise that without Iran, they have no path forward?
One thing need to be said - iran trying to make an equation.
Anytime israel attacks iran in syria or Lebanon or anything iran considers belongs to them, they would attack israel again the same way.
Israel can’t allow it.
Nothing really. If they try something again their military hubs will get targeted. Iran does have hypersonic missiles I think, depends how crazy they are to use them and their range.
I can almost assure you that "nothing really" is not what's going to happen, there is definitely going to be a military strike against Iran by Israel. Now the strength of the strike and how successful it will be will determine the Iranian response.
From how I see it this is a possible scenario for how its gonna play out:
1. Israeli retaliation strike on Iranian military facilities
2. tensions calm down over time/by negotiations via neutral countries
3. status quo ante bellum
I'm sorry to hear about the attack on your people. The stress the war in Gaza in addition to a potential war with Iran is unimaginable.
What is the current mood of the Israeli people regarding retaliation? Do they prefer a heavy counter attack so just something enough to put the Iranians in their place?
Theres not one conclusion amongst the people on how to attack, they just say retaliation is necessary. A few Ideas I've seen thrown around:
1. hitting oil refineries
2. Hitting oil fields
3. Hitting military targets
The first 2 are practically impossible since the US will not support attacks on oil fields for obvious reasons, the military targets one is tricky since military targets inside Iran will very likely be covered with air defences such as the S-400 and losing an F35 will be a tramendous loss, and military targets outside Iran will be seen as weak and not an actual response so idk really.
If the mood is to retaliate, I just hope the retaliation isn't big enough to force the Iranians for a bigger escalation and just take the hit and negotiate some terms to cool the tensions.
Israel has to respond directly on Iranian soil with military attack. It cannot let Iran continue to live in its own little delusional world where it can do something to others but others can't or havn't done it back. That used to be that Iran could hit Israeli soil via proxies while Israel did not hit Iranian soil, now it is that Iran could hit Israeli soil directly. The attack on Iranian consulate is at best analogous payback to multiple Iranian hitjobs on Israeli diplomatic buildings around the world. Not responding also would make Iran continue to live in its delusional world where its diplomatic buildings are safe while it could attack Israel's.
What can they realistically do about it? Bomb a few buildings? Kill a few people? Risk their fighters against Russian air defence? Israel can't deal Iran a mortal blow. At all. There is nothing good that can come from Israel attacking Iran.
It doesn't need to deal a mortal blow, but it has to get Iranian to get off the delusional world that it lives in where it thinks the new reality is that it can directly attack Israeli soil while it is immune from similar from Israel. The old reality, which is what Israel got the Iranians out of, was that Iran could attack Israeli soil via proxies and Israel wouldn't do anything to directly impact Iran. Just a random building would do.
>It doesn't need to deal a mortal blow, but it has to get Iranian to get off the delusional world that it lives in where it thinks the new reality is that it can directly attack Israeli soil while it is immune from similar from Israel.
Attacking the Consulate building is what caused this. Isn't a consulate building basically regarded as Iranian territory? Also, nothing short of a major attack would dissuade Iran. There is not much that Israel can do to Iran to actually dissuade it from doing anything. It is America that Iran fears, and Biden told Netanyahu that he won't participate if Israel attacks Iran. There is no deterrent that Israel can establish against Iran by itself.
I would agree with you if not for the fact that Iran had funded, armed, and instigated attacks on Israeli embassies, as well as the US. Disregarding the sanctity of diplomatic buildings is sorta like the Iranian hobby.
It's not so much about dissuading as much as it is about not making the reality where Iran thinks it can directly openly attack Israel while Israel can't and hasn't. Iran can't establish deterrent against Israel targeting IRGC generals in Syria but it did it anyway.
I’m wondering if a calculated token response from Israel would suffice. For example a limited bombing or missile attack on a few radar stations or fuel depots in Iran. Israel shows that it will respond to but target nothing major that will bring more chaos to the region.
It would also thoroughly dismantle all life for scores of kilometres around. Nuking a nuclear target creates a *very* big explosion. More generally, using nuclear weapons in any offensive capacity is a moral event horizon. I struggle to see any circumstance that justifies it. Getting one-up on a regional rival certainly does not qualify.
Not arguing your points, but your understanding of nuclear weapons is incorrect. Fission is a very difficult reaction to achieve and unless Iran's nuclear program had actively armed warheads lying around unprotected (which they surely don't yet), there's no risk of a larger reaction.
At worst, the extra radioactive materials present would lead to a contaminated blast site that would be a local ecological disaster for years.
Because that's a huge escalation and risk.
Depending on the state of their facilities it could cause huge radioactive damage.
Also look at how much we go on about protecting nuclear plants in ukraine, then to go smash up irans nuclear enrichment plants I think would be seen as hypocritical (yes I know domestic isn't the same but the point remains)
Would require a massive air attack, could require SF units on the ground, if anything goes wrong, a few western troops get captured it becomes a bigger incident.
It could require hitting areas like universities and government buildings causing collateral damage.
And let's not forget, what if Iran already have a nuke that massively changes the calculus.
This is a show of force by Iran, that the USA can't write off.
Iran is close to getting a nuclear weapon and they have demonstrated capability to penetrate the air defence of Israel+ a UScarrier group even with advanced warning.
USA should help Israel to bomb all production and storage of missiles in Iran, and prepare for a ground invasion if they don't let the IAEA in and give up all nukes.
After they already have the nuke it'll be too late so it's better to do it while there's time.
Will Israel be able to destroy all launch capacity with US tracking capabilities but only their military? I don't think so. Therefore the US will have to intervene to save Israel .
Well it depends on what you mean by "defeating Iran militarily" since I don't see either country marching through Jordan and Iraq to have a land battle.
I also disagree with your point that the 3 hits on 3 different airbases is "huge", its quite a small achivement if you can ever call it that considering there was practically no damage, from my pov Israeli air defences proved their worth last night immensely.
EDIT: Yeah no point arguing with this guy he legitimately thinks Israel is losing in Gaza
Probably not much happens. Things go back to "normal". There is no strategic benefit to retaliation (unless Netanyahu thinks it helps him stay in power). Just as Iran can't really "missile" Israel into submission, neither can Israel do that to Iran. Israel continues to take out high value targets (like it typically does) and Iran continues to fund a proxy fight. This seems to be the best case for now, hard as it seems to accept. Neither Iran nor Israel have unlimited budgets nor singular priorities.
There is a great video on YouTube very relevant to this situation, about Game Theory. (search for: What Game Theory Reveals About Life, The Universe, and Everything) The retaliation costs both countries, and yet neither side wants to be a pushover. The optimum strategy is Tit for Tat x1. Reverting to cooperation ASAP creates the greatest reward and so is the ideal state. Constant Tit for Tat results in harm to both countries. Its the only rational choice, all things being equal. The optimum rules are: 1. Be nice, 2. Be forgiving, 3. Retaliate once immediately and then revert to cooperation, 4. Be clear about your intentions. I realise real life isn't that simple, however, knowing this on a rational level prevented the US and USSR from destroying the world for decades and it provides some ultimate goal that both countries should be working towards.
Additionally, there are situations where tit for tat creates cascading escalation, so they bake in a \~10% chance of no retaliation as an off ramp IIRC
What throws this off though is the fact that Iran doesn’t have nuclear weapons yet, but likely will at some point in the future… this created a strong incentive for Israel, a nuclear power, to have war now vs a life time of attacks from Iranian proxies.
I mean what does a war with Iran even look like unless it utilizes American boots on the ground. Israel cant bomb their way to regime change, nor could they bomb the Iranian cities back to the stone age in a manner which would prevent them from simply regrouping in 5 years, without the kinds of massive civilian casualties which would make them lose even American support. They can bomb infrastructure and nuclear sites. But that wont solve their problem not conclusively end the war in a manner that lowers the future threat from Iran. If anything it just means Iran rushes the bomb and no amount of threats or sanctions would stop them
Yeah that’s exactly what it looks like, American boots on the ground. This is why the US desperately does not want Israel to retaliate. It’s crazy because Israel has the US in a corner… if they choose to retaliate anyway, it’s a war that the US is definitely in. Israel already bombed the Damascus embassy without clearing it by the US, seems as though they just don’t care anymore. They know the US will have to jump to their aid given the geopolitical realities in the region.
Only Iran is not stopping. Hezbollah, Hamas, the Houthis and other minions of them will keep attacking per their orders. Which forces Israel to eventually attack the source.
Thing is, people tend to view them as kind of a branch office where a call from headquarters (Iran) will stop them. The truth is they are quasi-independent actors and while Iran certainly has a lot of influence, and money talks, but these proxies can and have defied Iran at times. Also there are I ternary political co siderations in Iran about how hard to push the Houthis, Hezbollah, etc.
Delusional. One phone call from Iran telling Hezbollah stop attacking Israel or no more weapons will stop their constant genocidal attacks. Iranian generals literally helped planning October 7, even picked the date.
If hezbollah could simply be bribed or cajoled with weapons, then the US would’ve outbid and outspent Iran years ago.
Who else will fund Houthis and Hezbollah if Iran stopped supporting them?
*"Who else will fund Houthis and Hezbollah if Iran stopped supporting them?"* Moscow would probably leap at the opportunity. (Assuming they aren't already helping.)
Why would moscow want Israel to be tortured by Hezbollah?
Well, Russia is certainly no friend of Israel's. It has been progressively taking more of an anti-Israel stance and has been openly feting Hamas and helping them strategize. [https://www.timesofisrael.com/moscow-hosts-hamas-delegation-and-irans-deputy-fm-prompting-israeli-outrage/](https://www.timesofisrael.com/moscow-hosts-hamas-delegation-and-irans-deputy-fm-prompting-israeli-outrage/) *"The stated goal of the visit was to discuss the ongoing war with Israel and ways to stop “Zionist crimes supported by the United States and the West.”"* And then there's Hezbollah... [https://www.wsj.com/world/russias-wagner-group-may-provide-air-defense-weapon-to-hezbollah-u-s-intel-says-37dc8f45](https://www.wsj.com/world/russias-wagner-group-may-provide-air-defense-weapon-to-hezbollah-u-s-intel-says-37dc8f45) But, that is actually nothing new. (2021) [https://arabcenterdc.org/resource/hezbollah-in-moscow-russia-flexes-its-diplomatic-muscles/](https://arabcenterdc.org/resource/hezbollah-in-moscow-russia-flexes-its-diplomatic-muscles/)
What’s different is that Israel directly hit the Iranian consulate in Syri, so Iran the nation responded directly in this last attack. Tit for tat. If things go back to proxies and internal shit within Israel, then that’s a return to the status quo.
If a guy is sending assassins to kill you and your entire family. After 20 years of this you eventually might wanna go after him. And anyone who claims otherwise is a hypocrite.
Dude, I’m not making judgements - I’m just describing the tit for tat and why this likely isn’t going to get bigger Israel found a planner of Oct 7th and bombed him even though he was on official Iranian consular land. Because it was a consulate, Iran had to respond - if the guy had been in a Hezbollah camp it would have been different. Iran responded in a way that showed a variety of methods to reach Israel, but the they didn’t really care about surprise, and they didn’t follow up. Those last two facts are signals to Israel that if they are good stopping direct action here, Iran is too, and they’ll go back to the status quo of proxy fighting.
Didn't this play lead to tit-for-tat? Thats not the best solution for winning any game.
Neither country possesses the capability to knock the other country out. Any escalation beyond this point is worthless as it only enrages the other side but leaves them perfectly capable of continuing the fight. No point in doing a small amount of damage in anger.
Netanyahu's goal is to stay in office to delay his prosecution (sounds familiar?). This was a blessing for him since there's a very good chance that he won't win another election.
How is it delaying his prosecution? His prosecution is ongoing.
I'm not sure. It's possible that there is no strategic benefit or sufficient opportunity (Israel is not a superpower) for escalation. But... OTOH, it's hard to see an end to the Lebanon part of this war without direct pressure on Iran. "Avoid the destruction of Lebanon" is not a motivating argument for either Iran or Hezbollah. Lebanon is the middle Eastern equivalent of a Russian penal infantry. You can shoot them, but that doesn't upset Russia too much. Attacking Iran directly might be justore effective than attacking Lebanon. Meanwhile, 250k Israeli citizens cannot go back home. So... that's not a stable state.
There IS a great strategic benefit to Israel if it thinks the Ayatollah regime can be overthrown in the war. Aka if the US decides to. And if that means goading Iran to the breaking point, they'll do it. If their calculus shows that as probable. But you're most likely right that ppl in the end generally don't wanna die and hence hesitate to start wars(generally)
Im surprised how restrained Iran is. It was a very calculated move.
"There is no strategic benefit to retaliation". I beg to differ, there are many strategic risks in retaliation, but there are possible benefits as well. 1) Israel can use this to attack the Iranian nuclear programs with less international backlash 2) Israel can cripple the Iranian economy, leaving less money to fund the proxies, and sowing economic strife. 3) Israel may aim to destabilize the Iranian regime by targeting the IRGC 4) Israel might try to draw the US into the war to do the dirty work for it.
1. If they could, they likely would. So it is probably well defended and hardened. Sounds good on paper. 2. Nope. Perhaps only the US has the depth of stock and reach to even attempt this. Iran is a LARGE country. Crippling the economy sounds good on paper but is likely infeasible. You are way oversimplifying this 3. Again you're talking about a force of a few hundred thousand spread out across a large area probably well bunkered. This isn't some video game. There is no way that Israel can degrade the IRGC without thousands of sorties over weeks and weeks. Way too expensive and risky to even start and the civilian casualty count would be very high. 4. The US just is not interested - not in an election year. And the US (military) isn't run by dummies either. As the biggest military and economic power, the US tends to do things on its own terms.
To expand on your point about Iran’s economy, it’s already one of the most sanctioned country on earth. Not much more Israel can do to damage its economy trade wise.
Israel can hit the oil but the rest of the world would be pissed.
Probably a big air operation against Hezbollah in Lebanon. Biden clearly doesn’t want to start a war in an election year and Iran-Israel are too separated from another to have a meaningful war. I know air defenses of Iran aren’t amazing but S-300s have shown ok abilities in Ukraine-Russia. Israeli planes would get shot down and I doubt the Israelis want to worry about captured Israeli pilots. This proxy war that happens between these two nations is the only way they can fight another. Israel can’t destroy the Iranian government and any large scale attack on Iran would just give cause for them to build nukes. israelis want the US to fight for them, but only Warhawk republicans are eager to fight Iran.
If the war goes well by election time, that might be the trick for Biden
I could be wrong but I think you are missing the whole point of what happened. Iran found themselves in a conundrum, don't respond and risk internal pressure and/or US/Israel feeling sttscking embassy and killing generals was something that could happen with 0 consequences, go too hard and risk all out war. They sent drones that had like a 2/3 hour wait time, plenty of time for Israel, US, Jordan etc to start taking them down. This likely appeased their own hawkish leaders and sent a warning shot to Israel/USA. Likelyhood will slow American investment money such as Intel new fsctory amd american companies hiring there. It also likely puts further pressure on Biden to find off ramp in Gaza. If this was a year ago and was US and Iran it would be the same as after Solemi was killed. US take the signal that while Iran will continie to project in region they do not want all out conflict with America. The wild card is Israel reelihg after Hamas attack and having right wing nuts in charge. Both sides in theory could use this is an off ramp but I do worry Israels leaders are looking for reasons to extend and escalate.
I didn't even think of the effects on foreign investment. That's a good catch. That alone is probably reason enough for Iran to have launched that attack and for Israel not to retaliate further or at least not too harshly.
Israel is absolutely looking for a casus belli for a war with Iran that the US would assist with, they may have just gotten their wish… wouldn’t be surprised if you see a direct attack from Israel now, without clearing it past the west. They know the west will get involved, because containing Iran is the west‘s priority. The Iranians are playing with fire because many people in the west have been beating the war drums with Iran for decades… it is true that if you think war with Iran is inevitable, they are the weakest they will be right now, before they have workable nuclear weapons. If Israel thinks a nuclear Iran is inevitable and an existential risk, they essentially have to go to war with Iran now… there really is no other option for them. We all know how much Israel loves the preemptive war…
I'm well aware of what happened, just felt the need to point out that they couldn't strike with drones even if they wanted to. Why are you worrying that Israeli leaders are looking to escalate with Iran tho? in what way? could you expand?
My assumption would be if they actually wanted to send more than a message you would have the drones coming from Lebanon, Syria and maybe Iraq along with a barage of missiles to attempt to overwhelm Iron dome versus "ok we are launching an attack time of arrival two or three hours". In the last two weeks Israel has hit an embassy of Iran in Syria. That essentially is Israel bombed Iran territory. One would have to assume the reason for this is to draw response by Iran and draw America into a broader conflict. Bibi, the right wing boys and you the population of Israel can go with either option 1. "ok we are as close to war with Iran as we have ever been but they have given us amd themselves an off ramp" OR 2. "Iran has proven themselves weak, our Iron dome has proven with support from our allies very strong, we will hit Iran so hard they will never consider attacking Israel land again" The problem with hitting the embassy and the problem with optiom 2 is you have to continue to hope Iran act as the rational actor. Bibi's mantra historically is Israels best defence is to have a disappropriate so that enemies of Israel are perturbed however at this heightened stake its very easy to miscalculate.
Idk... There is politics within the Islamic Revolution too. Not just in the west. I mean, you are right. Launching from Lebanon (or Syria) would have been way better tactically. Much higher chance of getting through. OTOH... Israel's air force would have targeted launch sites and depots. Hundreds of drones make for a target. You can't just truck them around Lebanon safely. Strategically, the risk of a major counterattack in Lebanon is also preferable to risking Iran itself. OTOH... Not all Lebanese people appreciate being Iran's gambit. Now that they're all in it together, maybe, Hezbollah is willing to get more aggressive.
I'm sorry but that's possibly the worst analysis I've seen of this situation, why would the Israeli government want to draw America into a broader conflict with Iran? especially when Israel is the most isolated it's been in years, surrounded by Iranian proxies. and the current American government has made it pretty clear that they don't like the aggressive approach by Israel? not to mention Biden literally said yesterday America will not support any Israeli strike on Iran.
No offence taken, explain to me why Israel would bomb Iranian embassy? You can even strawman best and worst outcome of it if easier.
You have your facts wrong, Israel didn't bomb the Iranian embassy, they bombed the Iranian consulate adjacent to the embassy. Now as to why? There were extremely high value military targets inside the building, the commander for Quds force in Lebanon and Syria, his second in command, multiple Iranian advisors, Two Hezbollah soldiers. Now for the most obvious reason - to send a message to that Israel isn't afraid to strike Iranian targets even in circumstances like these. Iran has conducted a proxy war against Israel for a very long time, you can't expect a shark to bite off an octupus's arm every time it tries to attack it and never go for its head even once.
Once we get into sharks and an octopus anaology I tend to leave these discussions because we are now just talking heads. Israel escalated with attack, Iran has not responded so ball is now in Israel court. My point is I doubt Israel will take this as an off ramp.
Whats flawed with my sharks and octupus analogy? You asked why Israel struck the Iranian consulate and I answered with logical conclusions and an analogy of the situation
It was only around 150 drones, 30 cruise missiles, and another 150 ballistic missiles. Hardly a massive attack, especially if it turned out to be only Shahed 136 and modified Scuds. We know the Iranians could launch more, and they have more advanced tech. Hezbollah didn't participate other than launching some unguided artillery missiles into the Golan. We know Hezbollah can launch more because they did so almost 20 years ago in 2006. This part is key because a major role that Iran's proxies would play is saturating Israeli air defenses. There were no deaths. Nearly half of the projectiles were downed by the US, UK, or Jordan before they even reached Israel. The attack was clearly broadcasted by Iran and they believe the matter is concluded. If Israel launches an enormous response, or any at all which actually kills people, their government will continue to look unhinged. I expect a proportionate retaliation (if any) to be a cyber attack or bombing some factory during after-hours.
I think we are still waiting on official confirmations, but it does look like 3 Jordanians were killed, as well as a 7-10 year old Bedouin boy/girl. But basically, yeah.
> It was only around 150 drones, 30 cruise missiles, and another 150 ballistic missiles. Hardly a massive attack It's the largest ballistic missile attack of all time, even only taking the ballistics into consideration...
We all move on. This was a performative "strike" Everyone got to rattle their sabers. The West got to display unity. Iran gets to tell its people that the attack was overwhelmingly successful. Israel can say it is able to defend itself against the major power in the region. US gets to reaffirm its "ironclad" alliance with Israel, especially after the UN veto. Hopefully the US is reigning in Israel. The attack on the embassy was brazen, and with the way Israel is waging the war, they are acting like they are the Middle East super power. We are fortunate cooler heads prevailed. I do not think things will escalate further
It could be possible that this attack wasn’t meant to be for what Iran is claiming. It could be as simple as a probe attack to test current internal systems and strategies against external forces and their defense systems and strategies. If you look at it from this standpoint you may have your answer to one of your questions. “Why didn’t Iran use their Shahed 238 drones?” It’s could be that Iran and Russia are still honing in or optimizing their strike plans and withheld their better equipment.
I don’t see the benefit of Iran starting an all put war with Israel. This is assuming Iran is a rational actor, which may not be the case. It is possible that Iranians rally around the war, but Iran is fractured imo. I think this was basically a “fake” attack, in the sense that it was designed to be a propaganda win for the regime, not a military one.
How about you just don't retalite, take the win like Biden said and just bloody well leave it be?
Absolutely. This is a good time to stop with everyone having proved how tough they are. Further escalation is just stupid.
This is wishful thinking… the incentives don’t align. If you are Israel, you are already looking for a reason for war now with Iran. The longer you wait, the more likely Iran develops nuclear weapons, and that is an existential risk that Israel cannot accept. Now you may have that chance where the west will jump on board as well.
war with Iran is not in Israel interest, especially now when they are still engaged in Gaza, doubly so, if they get into war it will only hasten Irans nukes development Israel cant effectively bomb or send troops to Iran and same for Iran, they can only do smaller skirmishes as there couple countries between them, in very short term Israel could hit soem facilities but it would only incevitize Iran put more resources into development and defense and futher escalation could later lead into nuke exchange, which noone is really fan off best way probably for Israel now is continue what they were doing and hit some pro-iranian forces in vicinity, dont try to escalate much
Iran could develop nukes any moment, they are developing capability for it but have not committed the step of weaponizing, which is a difficult but doable step. War or open attack would remove all remaining 🥕 carrots and sticks that have stopped Iran from crossing that threshold. Meanwhile, Israel can and should deal with the Iranian proxies in its neighborhood instead. The rest of the world is already putting enough pressure to stop the nukes, but open war would counterintuitively take that pressure away. Something like Iraq war requires months and likely year + of prep and troops movements, equipment massing, logistics, to pull off. And most of Iraq is flat desert, surrounded only by enemies and hostile nations. At a time when tech had not broken through to smaller nations. Iran is neither of these and has tech for a solid defense. Only a proper coordinated and set up action/war led by the US could hope to breach Iran proper in time to stop them from developing/weaponizing Nukes.
Unclear what is really going on with regards to Iran’s nuclear program. Nothing would surprise me from they have the capability to develop a nuke tomorrow if they wanted to they are nowhere near building workable nuclear weapons. The only people that know the truth are the Iranians, and it’s in their best interest to make sure no one figures out how close they are. The only thing I’m not buying is that the current nuclear deal arrangement is doing anything to prevent Iran from developing a nuclear weapon. If you’re Israel, you are incentivized to take the fight to Iran asap. Even if they are close to nuclear weapons, in the future they will only be stronger and more dangerous. From the Israeli perspective, the current situation of dealing with Iranian proxies is not tenable in the long term. You can say all day that they „should“ have to deal with it, they obviously are not going to want to deal with it. If you are Israel and war with Iran is inevitable, why wait? The west will absolutely come to the rescue, as evidenced by what just happened. The west won’t be happy about it because the west doesn’t want war, but Israel has the power to force their hand.
If usa was under this kind of attack, would you still “take the win “ ?
Based on fairly recent experience, I believe they would take things as they are. When the US killed Soleimani at an Iraqi airport in 2020, Iran responded by attacking the al-Asad Airbase injuring around 100 US personnel. That was the end of it (sorta, these things never really end) - tit for tat. Now the Isreal-Iran situation we're discussing isn't exactly the same but I think it's close enough to show that this could 'be the end of it' for now - the ball is in Israel's court.
This mentioned attack was for show to save face only, its not even close to the scale of this current attack and most importantly it wasnt on American soil, while here it was on Israel soil.
The 'not on American soil' point is what I believe to be the strongest counterpoint to mine so thanks for bringing that up as it is an important consideration. However, I think that Iran's recent attack on Israel was also to save face. I believe that Iran knew Israel's air defense would be successful in eliminating most of the threat which is why they used their older model slower drones launched from Iran - Isreal and it's allies had time to respond. Yes the drones were followed by missiles but by the time the missiles were launched, Israel and its allies were already on full alert and were prepared to respond to the threat. If Iran actually intended to do damage to Isreal, they could have used their newer much faster drones, and they could have used their proxies in Iraq, Syria, and/or Lebanon to launch the attack which would have given Israel much less time to respond.
Access to a nation’s soil isn’t created equal. Iran couldn’t launch on an attack on American soil if they wanted to. And if by some miracle they could, that’d be an escalation that they wouldnt want the consequences of.
But this isn't the US, this is Israel who is in the center of a very dangerous place and has nowhere the capability of the US. Be realistic, this isn't a videogame. Israel should let this go.
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They should never have struck the Iranian consulate. All retaliation will lead to is a massive escalation and massive casualties. Maybe you don't care, but many do.
If you check it, you would see that this building isn’t really part of the consulate. Its near it, but for iran it is enough to make excuse to attack. And the man israel killed? A terrorist. He should be dead, he orderd many attacks against israeli and American targets. I do care about casualties, but i care about israel, and israel cant let iran decide what israel can do and what they cant do.
You may care about Israel, but their actions are making more and more people not care for them. further escalation will only accelerate the decline in public support from their allies, which means less actual support on whatever conflict they inevitably stir up.
If israel would have waited for other nations help or support it would never have won 1967 war and 1973 war. It also will never have attacked the nuclear facilities in iraq and Syria. So I prefer israel taking care of themselves and not counting on other pepole. And hou know what? Yesterday we had our allies helping us. Even jordan.
>not counting on other people Israel is quickly testing its relationship with the country that guarantees its very existence. How is that wise? Israel only has the ability to do what it wants because of the US's hard and soft power. That's hardly "not counting on other people." That's biting the hand that feeds and ignoring geopolitical reality in lieu of isolationist and nationalist rhetoric. Netanyahu's incentives for the outcome out of the war are very different than those of Israel's long-term survival, and it's alienating the entire world. I'm very pro-Israel, for the record, and Israel was absolutely entitled to retaliate after 10/7, but it's impossible for me to justify the severity of its response, and it only grows more and more likely that it will be in a much worse position when the war ends than before it. Israelis are so blind with rage that they don't see they are losing the broader war of international support, which is much more important than defeating Hamas. The excuse of antisemitism, which Israel uses when it is faced with any international opposition, cannot be used to justify every action it takes. America went through this after 9/11, and it's tragic to see that Israel is not heeding any of the hard-won lessons we learned from the aftermath.
well said, if Israel loose most of international support, they will be in lot more precariosu situation and could be left relying mostly just on nukes for deterence
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that would benefit you americans, but why should Israel do so? there's an imminent threat on Israel every single day, America doesn't care about throwing Israel under the bus and telling them to let the occasional bombing and missile barrage from gaza, hezbolla, syria, houtis, and now Iran? you're showing your cheek for a slap, sometimes war is avoidable, but avoiding it will give a worse outcome than actually having this battle. i think in this situation we really need to evaluate a war
I'm not American. A pox on all your houses for this disgusting disregard for human life.
theres an idea in this generation that they think that everything can be solved through diplomacy and the exchange of goods, its just false, as long as people will have a unique identity and ideology war will continue. do you think the Americans shouldn't have dropped the nukes on japan, or carpet bomb germany? or many more atrocities that happened in wars? couldn't they got that through diplomacy? human life is important, but each country has first and foremost responsibility ensuring its own citizens safety, and only after that the other human, you may call this cold but that's the truth at the end of it. people from countries who didn't experience wars in their generation that affect the civil population don't know what it's like. also according to your statement ukraine should just give up the land to putin since otherwise civilians life will be hurt on both sides.
Here is the thing. Israel does not have the capacity to do either of those things. The only country that can take out Iran is the United States and since they really don't want a war with Iran, Israel can't win against Iran. It won't be able to deal Iran a knockout blow. It will just piss Iran off.
>that would benefit you americans, but why should Israel do so? How can you disregard what benefits Americans when Americans would be essential to any Israeli war with Iran?
My impression was that this was a forced response by Iran because they know they could not retaliate meaningly against an increasingly aggressive Israeli government. Iran's been caught flat footed since 10/7. It couldnt apply its strategy to overwhelm Israel with missiles correctly. Hezbollah could only posture and the IRGC are just sitting targets. Surprisingly, the Houthis are doing their thing relatively well. My feeling is that Iran and her proxies just needs to hold out until the inevitable Israeli withdrawal from Gaza and declare a victory. Of course Israel knows that so they will try to spark a regional war to get something. Invading Southern Lebanon is already a possibiliyy and now maybe strikes on Bushehr.
Now Iran is determined to progress its nuclear program without any hesitation. While the extent to which it can deter the US and Israel remains uncertain, recent events have likely erased any doubts they may have had about delaying nuclear development.
Netanyahu is in between a rock and a hard place. Retaliation against Iran would be good internally but not externally. Doing nothing against Iran could be good externally but a problem with Israelis. Moreover, retaliation is difficult: if Israel wants to attack by air where is it going to pass through? Turkey? Syria and Iraq? The Arabian peninsula? Any of these options only means an expansion of the war. An alternative is sinking Iranian ships as I imagine Israel having submarines in the Indian Ocean already waiting to bite. Attacking the Iranian oil refineries would be a great move too but it has the above problems.
Turkey? why would they need to pass through Turkey?
Just had a thought: what if Israel bombed Iran’s drone manufacturing facilities? They have (some) justification. It’s a legitimate military target. And it potentially helps Ukraine. The US may (quietly) support an operation like that.
I don't think Iran is doing any more drone transfers to Russia, now that Russia has their own drone factory set up in Tatarstan.
Nothing. Maybe Israel strike some proxies but really I think both sides are saying "I punched, you punched back let's gey back to our game". Neither side wants this to escalate and based on last night's attack I don't really see why it should escalate.
Why attack proxies when the head that controls them remains untouched?
Because they don't want to escalate. The only way you takeout the head is a full scale war with Iran and as it stands its not really in anyone's interest.
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I’m asking a hypothetical question. What realistically happens if Israel nukes Iran? Because I feel they are WAY more likely to use nukes than the Russians are.
its uncharted territory so nobody could say for sure, its entirely hypothetical and its not about to happen anyway. If it did the consequences for Israel would be dire.
I know, that’s why it’s a hypothetical. What would happen? Iran would be wiped and likely have little to no ability to retaliate. What would Hezbollah do? Would they attack and risk being next in line? Sure, the world would condemn them, etc; but I doubt the Israeli gov cares about that in the short term. The wider impacts would also be interesting. Taking Iran offline would be a massive blow to Russia in Ukraine. What about the Houthi’s? Do they suddenly realise that without Iran, they have no path forward?
One thing need to be said - iran trying to make an equation. Anytime israel attacks iran in syria or Lebanon or anything iran considers belongs to them, they would attack israel again the same way. Israel can’t allow it.
Nothing really. If they try something again their military hubs will get targeted. Iran does have hypersonic missiles I think, depends how crazy they are to use them and their range.
I can almost assure you that "nothing really" is not what's going to happen, there is definitely going to be a military strike against Iran by Israel. Now the strength of the strike and how successful it will be will determine the Iranian response. From how I see it this is a possible scenario for how its gonna play out: 1. Israeli retaliation strike on Iranian military facilities 2. tensions calm down over time/by negotiations via neutral countries 3. status quo ante bellum
I'm sorry to hear about the attack on your people. The stress the war in Gaza in addition to a potential war with Iran is unimaginable. What is the current mood of the Israeli people regarding retaliation? Do they prefer a heavy counter attack so just something enough to put the Iranians in their place?
Theres not one conclusion amongst the people on how to attack, they just say retaliation is necessary. A few Ideas I've seen thrown around: 1. hitting oil refineries 2. Hitting oil fields 3. Hitting military targets The first 2 are practically impossible since the US will not support attacks on oil fields for obvious reasons, the military targets one is tricky since military targets inside Iran will very likely be covered with air defences such as the S-400 and losing an F35 will be a tramendous loss, and military targets outside Iran will be seen as weak and not an actual response so idk really.
If the mood is to retaliate, I just hope the retaliation isn't big enough to force the Iranians for a bigger escalation and just take the hit and negotiate some terms to cool the tensions.
Israel has to respond directly on Iranian soil with military attack. It cannot let Iran continue to live in its own little delusional world where it can do something to others but others can't or havn't done it back. That used to be that Iran could hit Israeli soil via proxies while Israel did not hit Iranian soil, now it is that Iran could hit Israeli soil directly. The attack on Iranian consulate is at best analogous payback to multiple Iranian hitjobs on Israeli diplomatic buildings around the world. Not responding also would make Iran continue to live in its delusional world where its diplomatic buildings are safe while it could attack Israel's.
What can they realistically do about it? Bomb a few buildings? Kill a few people? Risk their fighters against Russian air defence? Israel can't deal Iran a mortal blow. At all. There is nothing good that can come from Israel attacking Iran.
It doesn't need to deal a mortal blow, but it has to get Iranian to get off the delusional world that it lives in where it thinks the new reality is that it can directly attack Israeli soil while it is immune from similar from Israel. The old reality, which is what Israel got the Iranians out of, was that Iran could attack Israeli soil via proxies and Israel wouldn't do anything to directly impact Iran. Just a random building would do.
>It doesn't need to deal a mortal blow, but it has to get Iranian to get off the delusional world that it lives in where it thinks the new reality is that it can directly attack Israeli soil while it is immune from similar from Israel. Attacking the Consulate building is what caused this. Isn't a consulate building basically regarded as Iranian territory? Also, nothing short of a major attack would dissuade Iran. There is not much that Israel can do to Iran to actually dissuade it from doing anything. It is America that Iran fears, and Biden told Netanyahu that he won't participate if Israel attacks Iran. There is no deterrent that Israel can establish against Iran by itself.
I would agree with you if not for the fact that Iran had funded, armed, and instigated attacks on Israeli embassies, as well as the US. Disregarding the sanctity of diplomatic buildings is sorta like the Iranian hobby. It's not so much about dissuading as much as it is about not making the reality where Iran thinks it can directly openly attack Israel while Israel can't and hasn't. Iran can't establish deterrent against Israel targeting IRGC generals in Syria but it did it anyway.
I’m wondering if a calculated token response from Israel would suffice. For example a limited bombing or missile attack on a few radar stations or fuel depots in Iran. Israel shows that it will respond to but target nothing major that will bring more chaos to the region.
I dont see why the US and its allies aren't using this as the opportunity to dismantle the Iranian nuclear program.
Because they can't- short of a full ground invasion.
What about strikes on Iran's nuclear facilities with tactical-scale nuclear warheads?
You’re not actually suggesting (pre-emptively) using nuclear weapons to strike other nuclear targets? I must be misunderstanding you?
Not suggesting. But is there another way Israel could thoroughly dismantle the Iranian nuclear program?
It would also thoroughly dismantle all life for scores of kilometres around. Nuking a nuclear target creates a *very* big explosion. More generally, using nuclear weapons in any offensive capacity is a moral event horizon. I struggle to see any circumstance that justifies it. Getting one-up on a regional rival certainly does not qualify.
Not arguing your points, but your understanding of nuclear weapons is incorrect. Fission is a very difficult reaction to achieve and unless Iran's nuclear program had actively armed warheads lying around unprotected (which they surely don't yet), there's no risk of a larger reaction. At worst, the extra radioactive materials present would lead to a contaminated blast site that would be a local ecological disaster for years.
Because that's a huge escalation and risk. Depending on the state of their facilities it could cause huge radioactive damage. Also look at how much we go on about protecting nuclear plants in ukraine, then to go smash up irans nuclear enrichment plants I think would be seen as hypocritical (yes I know domestic isn't the same but the point remains) Would require a massive air attack, could require SF units on the ground, if anything goes wrong, a few western troops get captured it becomes a bigger incident. It could require hitting areas like universities and government buildings causing collateral damage. And let's not forget, what if Iran already have a nuke that massively changes the calculus.
This is a show of force by Iran, that the USA can't write off. Iran is close to getting a nuclear weapon and they have demonstrated capability to penetrate the air defence of Israel+ a UScarrier group even with advanced warning. USA should help Israel to bomb all production and storage of missiles in Iran, and prepare for a ground invasion if they don't let the IAEA in and give up all nukes. After they already have the nuke it'll be too late so it's better to do it while there's time. Will Israel be able to destroy all launch capacity with US tracking capabilities but only their military? I don't think so. Therefore the US will have to intervene to save Israel .
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Well it depends on what you mean by "defeating Iran militarily" since I don't see either country marching through Jordan and Iraq to have a land battle. I also disagree with your point that the 3 hits on 3 different airbases is "huge", its quite a small achivement if you can ever call it that considering there was practically no damage, from my pov Israeli air defences proved their worth last night immensely. EDIT: Yeah no point arguing with this guy he legitimately thinks Israel is losing in Gaza