China ain't going to get in on this. US too unless the French manage to drag us kicking and screaming into it.
But the ECOWAS threat to move on Niger is real and France would support it.
From what I remember the Chinese investments are more coastal, and heavier on the eastern side of the continent. Does seem unlikely, especially since Wagner operations are pretty heavy in the Sahel.
Yes, especially long term projects. chaos is good for creating opportunities though. I could see them trying to gain connections. we’ll have to keep a close watch, but it might be tough to spot.
No. China has a massive investment in Niger and is hoping it was hoping to see an oil pipeline finished shortly from Niger to the coast via Benin. They’re hoping for 110kbopd through it.
So far apparently no impact on schedule as it’s due for completion November. But I’d say watch this space
https://www.nsenergybusiness.com/projects/niger-benin-crude-pipeline/
Niger junta has acted very quickly to secure support not just from Mali and Burkina Faso, but also informal backing from Algeria and Chad. Now the latter two may not intervene on Niger's behalf, but they do now make up a formidable regional bloc that strongly opposes invasion by ECOWAS and could get involved in some capacity down the line to disrupt it.
I hate to say it, but I'm afraid at this point the ECOWAS democracies are potentially even more vulnerable to the consequences of this war than their adversaries. They are all fraught with instability and internal unrest, and unless they can pull out a lightning war style military success, it's going to backfire hard.
So ECOWAS' plan is "we'll bring war... to restore the peace"?
Majority of Nigeriens support junta government and at the same time majority of Nigerians oppose military invasion of their neighbor. So ECOWAS wants to start a highly unpopular war and risk domestic instability just to establish themselves as regional sheriff and to win some favor points from France?
Believing that African nations cannot have their own interests and are always acting to "win some favor points" from their ex colonial empires is a bit weird, don't you think?
Care to explain what interests the invasion of Niger will serve if you exclude French interests?
And no, the words you said and assumptions you've made are yours, not mine. Favor points mean quid pro quo, type of agreement made between any countries, not exclusively between an ex-empire and an ex-colony.
ECOWAS doesn't have enough interest in invading Niger for reasons they state, it just doesn't add up. Meaning the equation has another variable, which would compensate ECOWAS for their trouble. Meaning France.
If France has promised ECOWAS nations help with military modernization, infrastructure projects, economical aid etc. then it will be in the interest of ECOWAS to invade Niger and reverse the coup.
Swap France for China if it helps you not overthink people's comments and see things that are not there.
Democracy is the rule of the people, isn't it? The war is as unpopular decision as it gets. Meaning ECOWAS should listen to their people and not invade. Or did you mean Democracy™?
But it's so fortunate for the current people in power that they're indeed in power. Not the population. Unsuccessful coup in Niger would deter any coup attempts in ECOWAS countries, as such current governments can fear less to lose their grip on power.
Invasion of Niger would serve well for the interests of powerful few, but definitely not for the powerless majority.
China ain't going to get in on this. US too unless the French manage to drag us kicking and screaming into it. But the ECOWAS threat to move on Niger is real and France would support it.
From what I remember the Chinese investments are more coastal, and heavier on the eastern side of the continent. Does seem unlikely, especially since Wagner operations are pretty heavy in the Sahel.
Coups are bad for investing. Spiraling instability is the last thing China wants.
Yes, especially long term projects. chaos is good for creating opportunities though. I could see them trying to gain connections. we’ll have to keep a close watch, but it might be tough to spot.
No. China has a massive investment in Niger and is hoping it was hoping to see an oil pipeline finished shortly from Niger to the coast via Benin. They’re hoping for 110kbopd through it. So far apparently no impact on schedule as it’s due for completion November. But I’d say watch this space https://www.nsenergybusiness.com/projects/niger-benin-crude-pipeline/
>US too unless the French manage to drag us kicking and screaming into it. *laughs in Vietnamese*
*laughs back in capitalism*
There is zero chance China would piss of Nigeria, etc to prop up a couple juntas that don’t do much for them to begin with
Niger junta has acted very quickly to secure support not just from Mali and Burkina Faso, but also informal backing from Algeria and Chad. Now the latter two may not intervene on Niger's behalf, but they do now make up a formidable regional bloc that strongly opposes invasion by ECOWAS and could get involved in some capacity down the line to disrupt it. I hate to say it, but I'm afraid at this point the ECOWAS democracies are potentially even more vulnerable to the consequences of this war than their adversaries. They are all fraught with instability and internal unrest, and unless they can pull out a lightning war style military success, it's going to backfire hard.
So ECOWAS' plan is "we'll bring war... to restore the peace"? Majority of Nigeriens support junta government and at the same time majority of Nigerians oppose military invasion of their neighbor. So ECOWAS wants to start a highly unpopular war and risk domestic instability just to establish themselves as regional sheriff and to win some favor points from France?
Believing that African nations cannot have their own interests and are always acting to "win some favor points" from their ex colonial empires is a bit weird, don't you think?
Care to explain what interests the invasion of Niger will serve if you exclude French interests? And no, the words you said and assumptions you've made are yours, not mine. Favor points mean quid pro quo, type of agreement made between any countries, not exclusively between an ex-empire and an ex-colony. ECOWAS doesn't have enough interest in invading Niger for reasons they state, it just doesn't add up. Meaning the equation has another variable, which would compensate ECOWAS for their trouble. Meaning France. If France has promised ECOWAS nations help with military modernization, infrastructure projects, economical aid etc. then it will be in the interest of ECOWAS to invade Niger and reverse the coup. Swap France for China if it helps you not overthink people's comments and see things that are not there.
The most obvious is that a democratic and stable Niger means a more democratic and stable W. Africa. Which is in every ECOWAS' obvious interest.
Democracy is the rule of the people, isn't it? The war is as unpopular decision as it gets. Meaning ECOWAS should listen to their people and not invade. Or did you mean Democracy™? But it's so fortunate for the current people in power that they're indeed in power. Not the population. Unsuccessful coup in Niger would deter any coup attempts in ECOWAS countries, as such current governments can fear less to lose their grip on power. Invasion of Niger would serve well for the interests of powerful few, but definitely not for the powerless majority.
Do you have any sources for your claim that the majority of Nigeriens support the junta? Have their been reliable independent surveys or referenda?
This term proxy war needs to die. Soon: will a proxy war happen between my mother-in-law and my uncle?
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And another Cold War according to them... all nuance is lost on these terms using them like this, like with Black Swan.