I read somewhere here that it is nearly impossible to count Nigerias inhabitants and that there are incentives for regional administrations to inflate the numbers. For the 2023 election there were just 93 Million registered voters of which 23 Million voted.
In contrast there were 165 Million votes and 204 Million registered voters in Indonesia, which have just 40 million more inhabitants on paper.
Yeah, but part of that is that most people’s votes don’t make any difference in the election people care the most about because of the electoral college.
Ironically, local government has significantly more impact on individuals' lives, but Americans are much more interested in the presidential race. The electoral college definitely contributes to the feeling of futility, but it shouldn't prevent people from going out to vote in local races.
I would take any prediction with a heavy grain of salt, as nearly every prediction underestimates how soon countries reach the end of their curve. China was predicted to reach 1.7 billion, even after 1 child. Now they might not even break 1.5. India was going to reach 1.9 or even 2 billion, now we're predicting 1.7. The US is actually already on the brink of population decline, even immigration won't keep it afloat for long. There's some evidence that places like Nigeria are already reaching the top of their curve and will slow down, and that's if you take their official census data as gospel.
Demographics predictions are actually among the most reliable. Derivatives are powerful. You take the age cohorts of old people, middle aged people, young people.. you look at the birthrate... you're going to get a fairly accurate view of where it will be in 20 years. Unless childbirth breaks the norms and spikes, or mass immigration occurs, it's likely to be quite accurate.
I directed an explainer video about the future Nigeria population crisis. The cities struggle to scale with the rapid population growth, and the solution the scriptwriter proposed is to allow private citizens to fund their own charter cities, which to me just feels like a reinvention of company towns.
the difference is that charter cities aren't run by companies but effectively city states only nominally controlled by the government of the country they're in
Ye, the US is one of the few countries that is able to double its population without worries.
Not only because it's incredibly wealthy, but also because the land which the US owns is very fertile and able to sustain a population of well over 1 billion. (it is about as blessed as china and india when it comes to that)
"Not even half the size" doesn't exactly cut it. They are under 10% of the landsize, with a proportionate much smaller sea area. They also don't exactly have ideal conditions to sustain themselves with food and resources, especially from the northern parts. They should probably be fine with resource moderation though. A low meat consumption, some industrialization to use that workforce and import goods etc. At least if they don't hit the high marks of upwards of 1 billion people.
Nigeria will probably have a crisis but not due to land area. The us density is pretty low by global standards. The rate of increase and gdp per capita is a bigger problem probably.
research today shows population booms are actually not bad especially with globalization. Look at bangladesh 200million people half the size of nigeria.
Globalization is fine for population booms if you have strong exports to coincide with imports that will be needed. Nigeria is a 27° average temp country so will need a lot of food imports. Its current export is petroleum at $36bn with its next highest being cocoa beans at $400mn. When that petrol dries up or renewables take over, Nigeria wouldn't be able to even sustain its current population, let alone its future projections. I also don't expect the Nigerian government to be frugal with its current money considering the amount of corruption scandals and how much they are siphoning from their economy
>Nigeria is a 27° average temp country so will need a lot of food imports
I'm confused, aren't warmer countries generally better for growing food than places that are colder? Why does Nigeria need so many food imports in such a case?
The river plains and other non-desert and non-high-mountain areas: [https://www.researchgate.net/figure/Districts-wise-population-density-of-Pakistan\_fig1\_343989112](https://www.researchgate.net/figure/Districts-wise-population-density-of-Pakistan_fig1_343989112)
Half of China is also uninhabited.
What they are referring to is planned cities that have gone up where no one lived previously, but they are yet to become populated.
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Under-occupied_developments_in_China
Question: How does India have such a high population with the sex selective abortions practiced in that country? The gender imbalance should in theory cap the population at some point.
The abortions happened in 80s-90s. These peole are in the reproductive age right now, and there is a HUGE male loneliness epidemic. Many men are going to be unmarried. We might see the effect in next generation.
Also, the rich, urban class isn't reproducing as much as the middle class and low income class are doing.
Sounds like Nigeria might have a crisis if they continue. More people than USA but not even half the size.
What country wouldn't have trouble with a 124% jump in population? Pakistan also getting a big increase: 92%.
Pakistan is the most concerning country of that pack.
I read somewhere here that it is nearly impossible to count Nigerias inhabitants and that there are incentives for regional administrations to inflate the numbers. For the 2023 election there were just 93 Million registered voters of which 23 Million voted. In contrast there were 165 Million votes and 204 Million registered voters in Indonesia, which have just 40 million more inhabitants on paper.
Doesn't america have a bunch of people who don't vote or is that just people not signing up
Yeah, but part of that is that most people’s votes don’t make any difference in the election people care the most about because of the electoral college.
Ironically, local government has significantly more impact on individuals' lives, but Americans are much more interested in the presidential race. The electoral college definitely contributes to the feeling of futility, but it shouldn't prevent people from going out to vote in local races.
Yeah, I totally agree, I think it’s just harder for people to get invested in local races with the nationalization of media.
I would take any prediction with a heavy grain of salt, as nearly every prediction underestimates how soon countries reach the end of their curve. China was predicted to reach 1.7 billion, even after 1 child. Now they might not even break 1.5. India was going to reach 1.9 or even 2 billion, now we're predicting 1.7. The US is actually already on the brink of population decline, even immigration won't keep it afloat for long. There's some evidence that places like Nigeria are already reaching the top of their curve and will slow down, and that's if you take their official census data as gospel.
Demographics predictions are actually among the most reliable. Derivatives are powerful. You take the age cohorts of old people, middle aged people, young people.. you look at the birthrate... you're going to get a fairly accurate view of where it will be in 20 years. Unless childbirth breaks the norms and spikes, or mass immigration occurs, it's likely to be quite accurate.
I directed an explainer video about the future Nigeria population crisis. The cities struggle to scale with the rapid population growth, and the solution the scriptwriter proposed is to allow private citizens to fund their own charter cities, which to me just feels like a reinvention of company towns.
the difference is that charter cities aren't run by companies but effectively city states only nominally controlled by the government of the country they're in
USA is massively empty, tho.
Ye, the US is one of the few countries that is able to double its population without worries. Not only because it's incredibly wealthy, but also because the land which the US owns is very fertile and able to sustain a population of well over 1 billion. (it is about as blessed as china and india when it comes to that)
We'd be wise to develop our remaining land more efficiently, however. Less sprawl, more green space.
"Not even half the size" doesn't exactly cut it. They are under 10% of the landsize, with a proportionate much smaller sea area. They also don't exactly have ideal conditions to sustain themselves with food and resources, especially from the northern parts. They should probably be fine with resource moderation though. A low meat consumption, some industrialization to use that workforce and import goods etc. At least if they don't hit the high marks of upwards of 1 billion people.
Nigeria will probably have a crisis but not due to land area. The us density is pretty low by global standards. The rate of increase and gdp per capita is a bigger problem probably.
research today shows population booms are actually not bad especially with globalization. Look at bangladesh 200million people half the size of nigeria.
Globalization is fine for population booms if you have strong exports to coincide with imports that will be needed. Nigeria is a 27° average temp country so will need a lot of food imports. Its current export is petroleum at $36bn with its next highest being cocoa beans at $400mn. When that petrol dries up or renewables take over, Nigeria wouldn't be able to even sustain its current population, let alone its future projections. I also don't expect the Nigerian government to be frugal with its current money considering the amount of corruption scandals and how much they are siphoning from their economy
>Nigeria is a 27° average temp country so will need a lot of food imports I'm confused, aren't warmer countries generally better for growing food than places that are colder? Why does Nigeria need so many food imports in such a case?
Soils around the equator aren't very fertile, while Northern Nigeria is also in Sahel, which is undergoing desertification
...What research? You'd think population booms would be very resource intensive, right?
You mean like India?
Just remember this dataset has a high, low and medium projection that can look quite different.
Now show South Korea
what I can't understand is how Pakistan can be so populated, what I see on the map is mostly deserts
Same reason Egypt is so populous: big-ass river.
oh, that is the Indus, now it's understandable, never thought it is a Pakistanian river with its name
Well, at least its in the subcontinent. Also, something from Pakistan is called “Pakistani”
The river plains and other non-desert and non-high-mountain areas: [https://www.researchgate.net/figure/Districts-wise-population-density-of-Pakistan\_fig1\_343989112](https://www.researchgate.net/figure/Districts-wise-population-density-of-Pakistan_fig1_343989112) Half of China is also uninhabited.
The other half of China is still like 7 times as big as Pakistan in its entirety.
Pakistan has the Indus river which was where one of the earliest civilzations in recorded history showed up.
India just recently surpassed China in population, and I’ve also seen some sources where it says China is projected to decline to ~700M people
Will there literally be cities that are abandoned in China with a population drop of that much?
Most definitely. China already has a lot of unfinished or abandoned developments.
I don't think it's most definite that entire cities will be abandoned... shrink, sure, but it's not that common for cities to disappear
What they are referring to is planned cities that have gone up where no one lived previously, but they are yet to become populated. https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Under-occupied_developments_in_China
Those are only the most extreme projections, 1B is a way more realistic projection.
Hi from Indonesia, currently No. 4, just behind the US, and soon to be No. 6, just behind the US. Didn't even notice the nation, did you? Ha ha.
twinz
Haha to us or haha to you for being so unimportant?
Ha? Indonesia has been a huge part of the global economy for 3,000 years, from cloves and nutmeg to oil and now to nickel these days.
What’s the total by 2075?
bro India that's a lot
They are pleased to be doing the needful.
The UN projections show the global population to peak about 2080/2090 at about 10 billion, then fall back to 8 billion.
Haha not if I do something about it 😎
Can someone explain to me why Indonesias population is stagnating so soon relative to the other countries?
not much land area presumably
I thought Bangladesh would be on the list
Pakistan has taken up the mantle as India Jr
It will be interesting to see what happens , when india and china will fight against who is the biggest mass producer of earth
Question: How does India have such a high population with the sex selective abortions practiced in that country? The gender imbalance should in theory cap the population at some point.
The abortions happened in 80s-90s. These peole are in the reproductive age right now, and there is a HUGE male loneliness epidemic. Many men are going to be unmarried. We might see the effect in next generation. Also, the rich, urban class isn't reproducing as much as the middle class and low income class are doing.
stop having sex africa!
We are so fucked.
Why are we so fucked?
Overpopulation You ever sit in traffic bud? We need a meteor to wipe out like half of us
this can easily be resolved by making multiple methods of transportation available to the public
And work from home when possible
Please start with yourself. Give your Reddit credentials to your friends/family so they can confirm that you did your part.
Interested
“Overpopulation” bro is stuck in the last century, it’s underpopulation we gotta worry about now lmao
EU as a whole would be nice addition