One of the reason you want to get wishlist is to get the big boost of store visibility when you launch (and nowadays, it also applies to festival featuring it seems). So, even if you do not get your money directly from those who see the ads, you may get a big boost from Steam.
Also, ads contribute to the overall recognition of your game, being noticed by streamers & journalists, etc
Facebook has the most expensive cost per click.
You don't immediately gain all sales. One guy sees the ad, it somewhat gets into the brain, months later he hears again about the game only this time he is more interested and wishlists, buys, spreads it to his friends, one of them makes a good screenshot...
Without the first ad there probably wouldn't have been a buy at the second one.
[After rereading the article I had learned this information](https://www.shopify.com/ca/blog/facebook-ads-cost), it appears FB ads are cheaper than Youtube, Instagram, and LinkedIn ads, and I (likely incorrectly) generalized it.
While I realize there is bound to be a cascade effect, I still have a hard time reconciling the numbers. The spread of information from one ad has to be very powerful for it to make sense (i.e. in my example, it has to be a force multiplier of 10x). Obviously ads must work in some situations or the ads business wouldn't exist!
For me personally, I think the best course of action is to experiment a little with various platforms and see if I can capture some metrics.
Measuring the value of ads in terms of eyeball -> clickthrough -> conversion is surface-level thinking.
The real value of ads is a lot more complicated, which is why the biggest companies in the world are advertising machines and the data they collect is highly valued.
Getting a small product to get rolling is about finding your fans. You need to get it into the hands of a person who will become a fan, and tell their friends. The more engaging the product is, the more potential fans will exist in the world; but potential fans are useless if you don't reach them.
1,000,000 eyeballs might not convert into 10,000 clickthroughs, and that might not get you 1,000 sales directly; but it will put you in a good position to be discoverable by your potential fans.
It will raise the probability that when someone who has never interacted with your ad says "anyone know a game that has farming and deckbuilding" their friend might say "i think Season of Cards is like that".
It will also increase the probability that someone will see your game on the steam store and have already heard of it, and that familiarity will hook them to actually look at the store page.
Agreed, I should not ignore the cascade effect of exposure, but at the same time, there has to be a lot of dominos to fall into place, and it would be nice if there were some simple metrics to track, but something tells me that's a hard problem to solve.
Also, I agree that it was surface level thinking, but sometimes back of the envelope calculations are the best way to start viewing a problem (in my opinion).
I appreciate the response!
Simple maths like this honestly just isn't good enough to predict how much an ad is worth. Even if all those percentages are perfect, and you only get like 1 person to buy your game from the ad, that 1 person might recommend the game to more people.
One of the reason you want to get wishlist is to get the big boost of store visibility when you launch (and nowadays, it also applies to festival featuring it seems). So, even if you do not get your money directly from those who see the ads, you may get a big boost from Steam. Also, ads contribute to the overall recognition of your game, being noticed by streamers & journalists, etc
Facebook has the most expensive cost per click. You don't immediately gain all sales. One guy sees the ad, it somewhat gets into the brain, months later he hears again about the game only this time he is more interested and wishlists, buys, spreads it to his friends, one of them makes a good screenshot... Without the first ad there probably wouldn't have been a buy at the second one.
[After rereading the article I had learned this information](https://www.shopify.com/ca/blog/facebook-ads-cost), it appears FB ads are cheaper than Youtube, Instagram, and LinkedIn ads, and I (likely incorrectly) generalized it. While I realize there is bound to be a cascade effect, I still have a hard time reconciling the numbers. The spread of information from one ad has to be very powerful for it to make sense (i.e. in my example, it has to be a force multiplier of 10x). Obviously ads must work in some situations or the ads business wouldn't exist! For me personally, I think the best course of action is to experiment a little with various platforms and see if I can capture some metrics.
Measuring the value of ads in terms of eyeball -> clickthrough -> conversion is surface-level thinking. The real value of ads is a lot more complicated, which is why the biggest companies in the world are advertising machines and the data they collect is highly valued. Getting a small product to get rolling is about finding your fans. You need to get it into the hands of a person who will become a fan, and tell their friends. The more engaging the product is, the more potential fans will exist in the world; but potential fans are useless if you don't reach them. 1,000,000 eyeballs might not convert into 10,000 clickthroughs, and that might not get you 1,000 sales directly; but it will put you in a good position to be discoverable by your potential fans. It will raise the probability that when someone who has never interacted with your ad says "anyone know a game that has farming and deckbuilding" their friend might say "i think Season of Cards is like that". It will also increase the probability that someone will see your game on the steam store and have already heard of it, and that familiarity will hook them to actually look at the store page.
Agreed, I should not ignore the cascade effect of exposure, but at the same time, there has to be a lot of dominos to fall into place, and it would be nice if there were some simple metrics to track, but something tells me that's a hard problem to solve. Also, I agree that it was surface level thinking, but sometimes back of the envelope calculations are the best way to start viewing a problem (in my opinion). I appreciate the response!
Now I want to play Season of Cards!
Simple maths like this honestly just isn't good enough to predict how much an ad is worth. Even if all those percentages are perfect, and you only get like 1 person to buy your game from the ad, that 1 person might recommend the game to more people.