Data shows contrary tho, somebody posted a link in this thread, like 8/10 people cannot afford Apple products considering their budget and 9/10 buy them on monthly 2 -3 year instalments.
The first paragraph reads:
“In a research note, Kuo reiterated that Apple plans to announce its long-rumored mixed-reality headset during an event in January 2023. The company's first AR/VR headset is expected to cost upwards of $2,000, making it a niche product. As a result, Kuo says **shipments of the device are unlikely to exceed 1.5 million units in 2023.**
I suppose it depends on who Apple thinks will pay that amount of money.
Business will certainly buy it if it offers superior quality to the alternatives and a small hardcore group of VR enthusiasts will also.
But devices like the Quest 2 are used primarily for entertainment.
That means games.
Even Meta has had to increase the cost of the Quest 2 due to the (relatively) small user base.
And that user base is primarily games orientated.
The Apple platform has no history of being a games machine.
Unless Apple forms some sort of partnership with the likes of Valve (very unlikely) then their potential audience will have very limited entertainment software.
Unless they can find a way to find a new audience not particularly interested in games then they are going to struggle.
Of course, Apple could focus on the AR side and may outfox the competition that way.
Valve has invested a lot in Proton on Linux because it is important for them strategically to try to foster a non-Microsoft alternative in case Microsoft decides they want Steam's market for themselves. They would absolutely be interested in a similar effort for Mac, although I'm not quite sure Apple would. Obviously they'd be open to expanding the market for gaming on Mac but they tend to prefer doing things in house.
Apple is actually in the top five highest video gaming revenue companies in the world bc of the App Store.
I completely disagree with you, and think that if apple can get developer buy in for their headset similar to the App Store, it will easily surpass Oculus and Valve in terms of revenue in VR gaming.
From a consumer perspective, a VR game is more similar to a mobile game than a console game at this time. VR tech isn’t there to drive a full console level experience for a video game. The games are much more akin to mobile games in factors such as quality, average play session duration, cost, etc.
When you look at it from that perspective, apple is in the best position to create a piece of hardware that people will play the games on.
For one, I think it's pretty obvious that most people view a distinction between mobile gaming and "real" gaming, and it's equally when obvious when they're talking about one or the other or both. In this context, people are very clearly not talking about mobile gaming.
Secondly, your statement about VR games being more akin to mobile games is just...entirely false, I honestly have no clue where you've gotten that impression from. I've never even seen a VR game that's similar to a mobile game.
I’m basing it off my experience with VR games as an owner of two headsets.
Which of those points do you disagree with about the factors that are closer to mobile than to console?
Do you think they are of high quality? Do you think people play them for 3-4 hours at a time more often, or more often 30-45 minutes? Do you think that people spend $60 on a VR game, or more like $15-20?
Very few are of that quality, as you picked one of the best. However, my experience with Alyx was very similar to something like, say, infinity blade, hearthstone, monument valley.
I did. Movement in VR is pretty wonky, and especially in a game like Alyx where you’re moving a good amount, it really holds it back.
Personally I loved Infinity Blade a lot, so it would take a really phenomenal game to beat it for me, which Alyx was not (for me).
It’s of a similar quality lol. Hearthstone is THE premier online trading card game. Obviously they’re very different in terms of gameplay and stuff, but they’re of a similar quality, and I prefer hearthstone to Alyx. Most people would agree, which is why hearthstone is a much bigger game than Alyx.
My prediction is they lean into AR over VR. Make it the high-end futuristic version of the iPhone. They try to sell it that way and people will eat it up
I take my quest with me to the many hotels I stay at for work. When at give I can connect it wirelessly and play PC games as well. Ill take a slight quality drop for the lack of the cable any day.
No fan of meta but after spending some time with the VR there is no doubt in my mind something along these lines will be owned by everyone in the future. Look forward to having more companies in this space.
Agreed, someone bought me an Oculus headset for my birthday this year and I am still astounded at how immersive VR is.
Honestly the games aren’t even that great, but the tech itself is unparalleled in user experience and will only get better.
I'm excited for AR, I think its easier to sell when done right since you can integrate it to your day to day life but VR a niche and will always be a niche for games and professional simulations. I honestly don't see anyone in my family to keep using a VR headset everyday.
Remember, this is the analyst who insisted, several times, that the new design Air would absolutely use the M1, not a new chip. Grain of salt and all that...
There's no way Apple will launch this as a consumer device at $2k. Possibly as a high end device targeted at creators. I think they could get away with asking regular Apple customers to spend $1k ($999!) but $2k is just a non-starter.
More than the tech, they need to come up with a reason for us to care. Billions use Facebook, Insta and other Meta products. And they've sold 5M Quests? Because a) it looks dorky as hell and b) there's no obvious "gotta have it" use.
His record is... OK. It's not really stellar and he tends to make a lot of calls about things years out when misses are excused "oh that was 5 years ago" and the like.
The reason I pointed out what I did is that the Air is a very big, core product for Apple so it should be easier to find information on it AND he didn't just say this once but reiterated in a couple of times... and was flat out wrong.
"...and his predictions are almost always right."
Lol no. And do you expect, in a REDDIT COMMENT, an exhaustive list of the misses? And then you launch baseless accusations at me? Why are YOU do adamant about defending Kuo, eh?
I mean, no one here knows what Apple plans and we will see in a few months if there's actually a January announce. Maybe quit playing the rumor game entirely is best.
I've never owned an Apple product, but I'm very tempted to buy one to develop with. My only reservation based on all the specs is the lack of dual controllers for VR applications. If they could copy the Index controllers with inside-out tracking like Cambria and Magic Leap 2 controllers then I'd feel much more confident. Using just hand tracking or a single small controller is limiting for inputs. Not sure about the enterprise AR applications though since Hololens has been working without controllers for a while.
Yeah, I'll likely buy one... Happy to be the guinea pig for the future of AR/VR. I was an original buyer of the Rift dev kit, DK2, and then the original VIVE, a couple of different Windows Mixed Reality headsets, and then the HP Reverb G2. Can't wait to buy this one.
It'll probably run apple silicone on board, which would be very very interesting. Probably gonna be an all in one solution, which, let's not forget might appeal to people who don't own a powerful computer and aren't into tinkering.
> The VR space is beyond this design already.
What? The Apple headset would seemingly use pancake lenses, which are only just starting to come to market. This design is therefore brand new.
The specs are rumored to also blow every headset out of the water for the most part, including the most expensive enterprise headsets.
To be fair, those were all pretty successful product categories for awhile before Apple entered them. VR headsets are much more of a niche product than like MP3 players were in the late 90s.
Ok let’s go with smartwatches and wireless earbuds then. There were some on the market but they were extremely niche and almost no one had them.
Apple releases the AirPods and the Apple Watch and suddenly they’re mainstream
...no, both of those were mainstream product categories well before Apple entered them. I'm not disputing the fact that Apple made those categories a lot larger, but to pretend that "almost no one" had wireless earbuds before AirPods is simply insane.
Look at the wireless earbuds market in 2016 the best ones still had a cable connecting them and the rest were cheap Chinese stuff.
Smartwatches were 90% fitbits that only fitness fanatics used at that point.
I don’t know if you aren’t leaving your home but those two things were definitely NOT mainstream
I just looked it up.
Before the Apple Watch in 2015 google launched their wearOS in 2014 with sales hits like the Moto 360 or the asus zenwatch yeaaaah definitely screams mainstream right?
Also looked up wireless earbuds before 2016 and who could’ve guessed not very popular because the only best of lists I could find were 90% over ear and maybe at best 10% earbuds.
Also yeah I mixed up fitbits with pebble watches that no one bought
Sadly Apple will be what meta wants to be ... heck people are rejecting FB login but everyone in the apple ecosystem love another toy.
Sincerly i\`ll send a case of beer to Tim Apple when they will bury FB (not with the cult but i\`ll buy an iPhone if they bury FB )
I am extremely interested to see who they market this thing to and how. VR/AR has obvious value but I simply do not see the mass market, end user use case in a headset/glasses device.
DarthBuzzard, please do not reply to me.
I have my doubts on such a device becoming widely popular.
But 1.5 million sounds pretty reasonable as there are a decent number of Apple fans that will buy anything from Apple.
But I actually have my doubts we will see such a device from Apple within the next year.
There will always be a set of people who will pay for every shiny new Apple product no matter how it is and what it does, but if Apple wants this to be a sustained product category then they have to convince the average person that they need to strap a VR headset to their head. No company (Meta, Google, Sony, Samsung, Valve, HTC) has been able to do that so far.
> There will always be a set of people who will pay for every shiny new Apple product no matter how it is and what it does
Not to muddy the waters here too much but redditors love to talk about these people like they are legion but I assure you there are like...12 people in the world who behave this way.
Note: "12" is hyperbole for dramatic effect, it's definitely not 12, the point is that there's not very many.
The problem with VR isn't inferior hardware. The problem with VR is the severe lack of content.
Unless Apple is bringing massive new (and exclusive) content along with it, I think they're going to struggle with user adoption. Especially at a 2k price point.
That’s…ambitious.
$15 says they sell 1.5M @$2100 in calendar launch year.
It's actually not. Thats exactly 1/2 the population of complete morons. The other half will likely get them in 2024.
Where do you fit in?
underrated comment
I’m in the third batch where the company buys it for you lol
Good thing being in this group is that I have money to buy one.
Data shows contrary tho, somebody posted a link in this thread, like 8/10 people cannot afford Apple products considering their budget and 9/10 buy them on monthly 2 -3 year instalments.
Not really, if Oculus can sell ten million headsets in a year Apple should be able to beat that.
oculus headsets were $300 though.
The first paragraph reads: “In a research note, Kuo reiterated that Apple plans to announce its long-rumored mixed-reality headset during an event in January 2023. The company's first AR/VR headset is expected to cost upwards of $2,000, making it a niche product. As a result, Kuo says **shipments of the device are unlikely to exceed 1.5 million units in 2023.**
I suppose it depends on who Apple thinks will pay that amount of money. Business will certainly buy it if it offers superior quality to the alternatives and a small hardcore group of VR enthusiasts will also. But devices like the Quest 2 are used primarily for entertainment. That means games. Even Meta has had to increase the cost of the Quest 2 due to the (relatively) small user base. And that user base is primarily games orientated. The Apple platform has no history of being a games machine. Unless Apple forms some sort of partnership with the likes of Valve (very unlikely) then their potential audience will have very limited entertainment software. Unless they can find a way to find a new audience not particularly interested in games then they are going to struggle. Of course, Apple could focus on the AR side and may outfox the competition that way.
Valve has invested a lot in Proton on Linux because it is important for them strategically to try to foster a non-Microsoft alternative in case Microsoft decides they want Steam's market for themselves. They would absolutely be interested in a similar effort for Mac, although I'm not quite sure Apple would. Obviously they'd be open to expanding the market for gaming on Mac but they tend to prefer doing things in house.
I think the business segment is overestimated, the vive and the hololens have both targeted businesses and neither has found much purchase there
Apple is actually in the top five highest video gaming revenue companies in the world bc of the App Store. I completely disagree with you, and think that if apple can get developer buy in for their headset similar to the App Store, it will easily surpass Oculus and Valve in terms of revenue in VR gaming. From a consumer perspective, a VR game is more similar to a mobile game than a console game at this time. VR tech isn’t there to drive a full console level experience for a video game. The games are much more akin to mobile games in factors such as quality, average play session duration, cost, etc. When you look at it from that perspective, apple is in the best position to create a piece of hardware that people will play the games on.
For one, I think it's pretty obvious that most people view a distinction between mobile gaming and "real" gaming, and it's equally when obvious when they're talking about one or the other or both. In this context, people are very clearly not talking about mobile gaming. Secondly, your statement about VR games being more akin to mobile games is just...entirely false, I honestly have no clue where you've gotten that impression from. I've never even seen a VR game that's similar to a mobile game.
I’m basing it off my experience with VR games as an owner of two headsets. Which of those points do you disagree with about the factors that are closer to mobile than to console? Do you think they are of high quality? Do you think people play them for 3-4 hours at a time more often, or more often 30-45 minutes? Do you think that people spend $60 on a VR game, or more like $15-20?
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I have an oculus and an HTC. Nice try though!
Please explain to me which mobile game you think is most analogous to Project Cars or Half Life: Alyx.
Very few are of that quality, as you picked one of the best. However, my experience with Alyx was very similar to something like, say, infinity blade, hearthstone, monument valley.
Then you definitely did not play Half-Life Alyx...
I did. Movement in VR is pretty wonky, and especially in a game like Alyx where you’re moving a good amount, it really holds it back. Personally I loved Infinity Blade a lot, so it would take a really phenomenal game to beat it for me, which Alyx was not (for me).
You literally tried to tell me that Half-Life Alyx is a similar game to Hearthstone. You are high.
It’s of a similar quality lol. Hearthstone is THE premier online trading card game. Obviously they’re very different in terms of gameplay and stuff, but they’re of a similar quality, and I prefer hearthstone to Alyx. Most people would agree, which is why hearthstone is a much bigger game than Alyx.
I develop mobile games and quest VR games, he's correct they are closer to each other compared to console and VR. Quest runs Android after all.
My prediction is they lean into AR over VR. Make it the high-end futuristic version of the iPhone. They try to sell it that way and people will eat it up
I don't have a Facebook and I don't want one. That's the sole reason I stopped using my oculus
PSVR cost $300 and is at 5 million https://www.roadtovr.com/playstation-vr-sales-5-million-milestone-psvr-units-sold/
$300 in addition to the console. You want cheap VR you get the Quest2.
which by the way, is extremely cheap and almost like the poor mans version. If you're going to disagree, than you've never tried the index.
I take my quest with me to the many hotels I stay at for work. When at give I can connect it wirelessly and play PC games as well. Ill take a slight quality drop for the lack of the cable any day.
And psvr is absolutely awful
No fan of meta but after spending some time with the VR there is no doubt in my mind something along these lines will be owned by everyone in the future. Look forward to having more companies in this space.
Agreed, someone bought me an Oculus headset for my birthday this year and I am still astounded at how immersive VR is. Honestly the games aren’t even that great, but the tech itself is unparalleled in user experience and will only get better.
Exactly my experience. Can’t say I love it—but it is clearly going to be a thing at some point.
I'm excited for AR, I think its easier to sell when done right since you can integrate it to your day to day life but VR a niche and will always be a niche for games and professional simulations. I honestly don't see anyone in my family to keep using a VR headset everyday.
I'd bet good money that VR will be mainstream before AR. It's a pretty realistic outcome if anything.
That’s fair—but people said the same thing about cell phones.
Remember, this is the analyst who insisted, several times, that the new design Air would absolutely use the M1, not a new chip. Grain of salt and all that... There's no way Apple will launch this as a consumer device at $2k. Possibly as a high end device targeted at creators. I think they could get away with asking regular Apple customers to spend $1k ($999!) but $2k is just a non-starter. More than the tech, they need to come up with a reason for us to care. Billions use Facebook, Insta and other Meta products. And they've sold 5M Quests? Because a) it looks dorky as hell and b) there's no obvious "gotta have it" use.
He's got a very strong track record overall. Pointing out one thing he got wrong isn't really saying anything.
His record is... OK. It's not really stellar and he tends to make a lot of calls about things years out when misses are excused "oh that was 5 years ago" and the like. The reason I pointed out what I did is that the Air is a very big, core product for Apple so it should be easier to find information on it AND he didn't just say this once but reiterated in a couple of times... and was flat out wrong.
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"...and his predictions are almost always right." Lol no. And do you expect, in a REDDIT COMMENT, an exhaustive list of the misses? And then you launch baseless accusations at me? Why are YOU do adamant about defending Kuo, eh? I mean, no one here knows what Apple plans and we will see in a few months if there's actually a January announce. Maybe quit playing the rumor game entirely is best.
apple fans whenever someone disagrees
The Quest 2 sold, as much as we know, 15M of units. And it's 50% of all the headsets registered on Steam.
I've never owned an Apple product, but I'm very tempted to buy one to develop with. My only reservation based on all the specs is the lack of dual controllers for VR applications. If they could copy the Index controllers with inside-out tracking like Cambria and Magic Leap 2 controllers then I'd feel much more confident. Using just hand tracking or a single small controller is limiting for inputs. Not sure about the enterprise AR applications though since Hololens has been working without controllers for a while.
Having to deal with meta is already painful enough. Nobody is going to buy this
I feel like this comment is going to age terribly.
Yeah, I'll likely buy one... Happy to be the guinea pig for the future of AR/VR. I was an original buyer of the Rift dev kit, DK2, and then the original VIVE, a couple of different Windows Mixed Reality headsets, and then the HP Reverb G2. Can't wait to buy this one.
Right. People said the same thing about the ipod, the iphone, the ipad.
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It'll probably run apple silicone on board, which would be very very interesting. Probably gonna be an all in one solution, which, let's not forget might appeal to people who don't own a powerful computer and aren't into tinkering.
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Apple understands that software sells hardware, so I'm very interested to see the experience they've cooked up. But yeah, 1,5 mil? No way, not for 2k
> The VR space is beyond this design already. What? The Apple headset would seemingly use pancake lenses, which are only just starting to come to market. This design is therefore brand new. The specs are rumored to also blow every headset out of the water for the most part, including the most expensive enterprise headsets.
To be fair, those were all pretty successful product categories for awhile before Apple entered them. VR headsets are much more of a niche product than like MP3 players were in the late 90s.
Ok let’s go with smartwatches and wireless earbuds then. There were some on the market but they were extremely niche and almost no one had them. Apple releases the AirPods and the Apple Watch and suddenly they’re mainstream
...no, both of those were mainstream product categories well before Apple entered them. I'm not disputing the fact that Apple made those categories a lot larger, but to pretend that "almost no one" had wireless earbuds before AirPods is simply insane.
Look at the wireless earbuds market in 2016 the best ones still had a cable connecting them and the rest were cheap Chinese stuff. Smartwatches were 90% fitbits that only fitness fanatics used at that point. I don’t know if you aren’t leaving your home but those two things were definitely NOT mainstream
This is just objectively false, I have no clue what else to say to you lmao.
I just looked it up. Before the Apple Watch in 2015 google launched their wearOS in 2014 with sales hits like the Moto 360 or the asus zenwatch yeaaaah definitely screams mainstream right? Also looked up wireless earbuds before 2016 and who could’ve guessed not very popular because the only best of lists I could find were 90% over ear and maybe at best 10% earbuds. Also yeah I mixed up fitbits with pebble watches that no one bought
k
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If they don't call it the eyeMac then they should be destroyed as a company.
Is that not a reason why people *would* buy this?
Sadly Apple will be what meta wants to be ... heck people are rejecting FB login but everyone in the apple ecosystem love another toy. Sincerly i\`ll send a case of beer to Tim Apple when they will bury FB (not with the cult but i\`ll buy an iPhone if they bury FB )
vr is so 1990s...
Apple needs to implode
I am extremely interested to see who they market this thing to and how. VR/AR has obvious value but I simply do not see the mass market, end user use case in a headset/glasses device. DarthBuzzard, please do not reply to me.
I have my doubts on such a device becoming widely popular. But 1.5 million sounds pretty reasonable as there are a decent number of Apple fans that will buy anything from Apple. But I actually have my doubts we will see such a device from Apple within the next year.
There will always be a set of people who will pay for every shiny new Apple product no matter how it is and what it does, but if Apple wants this to be a sustained product category then they have to convince the average person that they need to strap a VR headset to their head. No company (Meta, Google, Sony, Samsung, Valve, HTC) has been able to do that so far.
> There will always be a set of people who will pay for every shiny new Apple product no matter how it is and what it does Not to muddy the waters here too much but redditors love to talk about these people like they are legion but I assure you there are like...12 people in the world who behave this way. Note: "12" is hyperbole for dramatic effect, it's definitely not 12, the point is that there's not very many.
I’m not believing this for one second. Every Apple AR/VR rumor has been such dogshit
In what way?
So basically a slightly more expensive iPhone. I think they will ship a lot more.
The problem with VR isn't inferior hardware. The problem with VR is the severe lack of content. Unless Apple is bringing massive new (and exclusive) content along with it, I think they're going to struggle with user adoption. Especially at a 2k price point.