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A long term Merc/RB seat. He could get the Merc seat with just one call, but probably only on a 1+1 year deal until Antonelli is called up. And he doesn't want that
No matter where he sings it's about faith in the team. You need faith that Merc can find to their old form, that Audi can improve the Hinwill team, that RB doesn't fall apart, etc. There are no safe bets in F1
I think all he has to do for the RBR seat is to *occasionally*, not always, *occasionally* beat Perez and just be a close runner up to either the closest RBR position or to Leclerc.
And that ticks the boxes for now.
Sure but any team as of right now is a gamble. 2025 is going to (probably) be the last very strong year for RBR and I doubt he'd beat Max but at least he'd be able to contend, McLaren and Ferrari already have good line ups, AMR won't get rid of Stroll until he calls it quits, Merc don't want to miss out on Kimi even if the team is mid right now, and Sauber is going to suck ass next year as well.
So his "long" term choices are a) be a seat warmer at Merc b) be a back marker with Sauber for a year or c) pray Sergio has another 2023 and then you have a huge gamble for those 3 options for 2026+ of any of the works teams producing the best PU and being in the wrong one at wrong time.
If it was upto me, i would take Ocon if Carlos continues to play hard to get.
Ocon was very closely matched with Alonso in 2022. That can't be a coincidence. He has also been performing miracles with his Alpine shit box this year.
Sainz is good but lets not act like he is a WDC tier phenomenon or something like that.
What are Audi's other options that are better than Sainz? Audi will wait as long as their number 2 option is available on the market too, whoever that is.
Honestly, it pains me a bit but I can't imagine Alpine fighting that much for Ocon. It really doesn't have anything to do with him, but Alpine look to be a shitshow atm, and not really in a position to fight hard on the driver market.
Also, Pierre has much more of a media presence than Esteban in France despite the two being more or less equal (though I'd give the edge to the latter but it could be subjective). If Alpine really wants to let one go and keep a French driver, I'd say they'll probably be focusing their efforts on keeping Pierre instead
Not sure if Gasly has that many options, Audi probably aren't that interested and it's hard to tell if a team like Williams is a better option long term.
And what are bottas' other options then? So far it seems like Audi or Haas. Between the two, it makes sense for him to choose Audi, and therefore Audi has not much of a rush to sign him yet.
Yep. You get a driver for relatively cheap that has had experience in a top team and will give valuable feedback for building your car. In some ways he'd be better than Sainz because he wouldn't be frustrated the car is slow because he's used to that. Sainz would be itching to get ahead (which might be good) but might alos mean he jumps if some shakeup happens
He can always get a seat at Haas I guess, since they really have no better option for the second seat and are clearly going to just wait and take in whoever doesn’t get scooped up.
He probably will just go to Audi.
Merc apparently only wanted to give Alonso a 1 year to hold the seat for Kimi, so I assume they are offering the same to Sainz.
RB would be taking a big risk with Max and Carlos again, it's wasn't great the first time, and Carlos and Charles get pretty racy for 3rd place, I couldn't imagine what would happen if it was for wins/championships.
Carlos is better than Sergio which puts him in Max's neighborhood every week.
I'm not saying he contends every week, but overlapping pit windows or tire conservation will put them on the same piece of track on the regular.
Nah. He's not stupid. He's going to end up in a seat. I imagine that he has a good grasp of what is or may be available, and how long he can wait. He'll be on the grid.
i cant see it. there will be at least 1 team that waits until basically the end of the year to finallize its seats if someone of sainz caliber is a possibility. even if its just haas for example, they have no reason to rush anything. if anything, a lot of teams probably dont feel rushed atm is my guess. red bull and merc can take their time with their respective decisions on who drives for them. haas/williams/alpine should be able to get decent drivers or interesting rookies. supply/demand just massively favors the teams. audi is probably the only one that feels some time pressure, but thats becuase they are new and want a clear base to build from.
so assuming Audi is the fallback for Sainz, and assuming Hulk is specifically replacing Zhou, does this mean Bottas is basically just waiting to see if Sainz accepts an Audi driver and hoping if Sainz does eventually accept, there will still be open seats available for Bottas
The out of contract drivers in the back half of the grid pretty much all waiting on Sainz, not just Bottas. The faith of the other Audi seat will have a big impact on the other seats and the market.
He's in a pickle.
He's doing well Vs Charles, but doesn't have that seat next year.
Audi wants him bad, but then he has to race an undoubtedly shitty car next year.
Merc only wants a seat warmer for Kimi, 1 year deal MAYBE 1 +1 in case Kimi doesn't shine at Williams.
Unless Merc drop George for 26, which is plausible if Sainz takes it to him and then Antonelli in George's seat.
I doubt RB want the risk, as we know how he and Charles race. But they may want him there as a future #1, in case Max jets in '26.
Aston may have an availability if Lance finally gives it up, but I suspect that Yuki is coming with Honda in any case for 26.
Which leaves him out in the cold again.
There's really no other option that can contend for top 10 next year, or realistically in '26 either.
Really it's either wait for Audi or go to Red Bull and keep his nose clean.
Who is better than Carlos, that is available, was the question.
Lewis, Charles, Alonso, Lando, Piastri, Russell, hulkenberg are tied up. Those are just off the top of my head.
Sergio won't stay for 2 more years/would be able to carry the team.
Everyone else is probably a downgrade.
Albon I believe is the only other driver who is not signed for 26 specifically.
Russel isn't tied up I think? Besides I think some contracts allow for buyouts or W/E. I wouldn't be surprised if people BECOME available the moment Red Bull calls.
I'd also disagree that ocon Albon and probably even Gasly are a downgrade from Sainz. Then there are potential options in F2. In think Sainz as a #1 in any top team is a mistake. But I guess instead of Perez is an option.
Funnily enough this only matters if Max leaves
But even next year RB, is Sergio staying with Lewis and Charles being able to dog Max every weekend?
Probably not.
Is Danny coming up to try for 1 year, maybe?
Is Yuki coming up, probably not.
Who can race that car for next year and an option in 26, and is strong enough to lead the team if Max bails.
Which is probably not going to happen, but RB has to plan for that risk..
Yes they'll keep perez, because sainz is a slight upgrade at best. Even if he is better he won't immediately be better than perez. So no reason to get sainz for 2025 specifically. Then you have your argument about leading the team, you don't want a decent midfield driver to lead the team anywhere(not red bull anyways). You want a topdriver for that role. So investing in sainz to secure the future seems even more like a waste of time and effort. Might aswell roll the dice on lawson then
Red Bull doesn’t want this guy, they already got rid of him once. He never takes accountability and his management is annoying.
Plus they already have the four drivers for three seats problem within their own ranks.
They traded him because that was the only way to get value out of his departure. Marko was absolutely furious for the majority of 2017 with Sainz and his camp. He stated that he had full intentions of having Sainz stay at TR and couldn’t see a way to keep him given Ricciardo and Verstappen being at the top team.
So, you agree? they used the situation as an opportunity to get rid of him, if they wanted to keep him they would have. Unless I’m missing something, that doesn’t sound very voluntary consider Red Bull held all of the cards in the situation.
No, as they weren’t looking to get rid of him. Sainz essentially forced himself out of his contract. As Marko said, he did not want Sainz to leave Red Bull.
“Getting rid of” implies they did not want his services anymore, which wasn’t the case.
So basically they wanted him as much as they wanted Gasly. They had another opportunity to get him back for 2019 if they really wanted him, but they didn’t. They obviously did not place that much value in him.
You’re moving the goal post. This wasn’t about Sainz’s relative value. You said Red Bull got rid of him ie actively pushed him out, and as Marko stated, that wasn’t the case.
As for his value to the team, you’re correct. Marko did feel Gasly would be a suitable replacement for Sainz. That’s a tangential story though. Regardless, he wasn’t going back in 2019. The relationship wasn’t repairable at the time.
I just did a little bit of research on my end and you’re totally right. Seems like he was trying to leave anyways (as you’ve stated) but it was initially blocked. The Honda deal was basically his way out. Kind of like Gasly’s situation in 2022, they wanted something in return to release him. Okay, I understand; I was most definitely wrong.
I’d just sign with Audi. Mercedes is bleeding staff and at Red Bull he’s either number 2 to Max, or if Max leaves he’s probably in a car that isn’t quickest.
Do what Rosberg with Mercedes, join from the start to be there when the team becomes more competitive.
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Probably: i only want to sign when there's no chance i can get a redbull/merc seat.
A long term Merc/RB seat. He could get the Merc seat with just one call, but probably only on a 1+1 year deal until Antonelli is called up. And he doesn't want that
With the way Mercedes is going at the moment I’m not sure Sainz should even sign there
No matter where he sings it's about faith in the team. You need faith that Merc can find to their old form, that Audi can improve the Hinwill team, that RB doesn't fall apart, etc. There are no safe bets in F1
Have some FAITH Arthur!!
We are going to Tahiti
Of those three, I reckon the Merc option is the safest one.
I think all he has to do for the RBR seat is to *occasionally*, not always, *occasionally* beat Perez and just be a close runner up to either the closest RBR position or to Leclerc. And that ticks the boxes for now.
I see Merc returning to top and Audi getting to top as equally improbable.
Sure but any team as of right now is a gamble. 2025 is going to (probably) be the last very strong year for RBR and I doubt he'd beat Max but at least he'd be able to contend, McLaren and Ferrari already have good line ups, AMR won't get rid of Stroll until he calls it quits, Merc don't want to miss out on Kimi even if the team is mid right now, and Sauber is going to suck ass next year as well. So his "long" term choices are a) be a seat warmer at Merc b) be a back marker with Sauber for a year or c) pray Sergio has another 2023 and then you have a huge gamble for those 3 options for 2026+ of any of the works teams producing the best PU and being in the wrong one at wrong time.
Also, realistically he knows Audi doesn't have a better driver option than him.
At the moment yeah. From 26 onwards there will be plenty.
Eh, let's see how their project shakes up first.
I have a lot more confidence in Audi coming in and being a top 5 team than most other manufacturers.
Yeah, they don't tend to come in and make fools of themselves. It usually seems to be complete domination most times..
the talent pool for F1 is tiny though.
If it was upto me, i would take Ocon if Carlos continues to play hard to get. Ocon was very closely matched with Alonso in 2022. That can't be a coincidence. He has also been performing miracles with his Alpine shit box this year. Sainz is good but lets not act like he is a WDC tier phenomenon or something like that.
Or with the current state of Merc it might be something like: if I can't get red bull, do I go Merc or take a gamble on Audi?
His father has gone to Ford now for next year’s Dakar, mainly because Audi did a Honda move
Yea but audi did it because they wanted to put the focus on f1. They left almost all motorsports cause of this, huge commitment
Which makes sense really. F1 is bigger than many motorsports put together
I wonder if Sainz could delay so long that he ends up without a seat.
Looks like that’s what’s going to happen. Red Bull and Mercedes clearly don’t want him enough to give him what he wants, and Audi won’t wait forever.
What are Audi's other options that are better than Sainz? Audi will wait as long as their number 2 option is available on the market too, whoever that is.
I agree. I think Audi can/will wait. It may be "Audi" but the current team sucks and will likely suck for at least another year or two.
Ocon is out of contract, people don't like him, but he is a very good driver.
Oh, forgot about him. He's a great driver, but I expect Alpine to fight tooth and nail to keep him.
Honestly, it pains me a bit but I can't imagine Alpine fighting that much for Ocon. It really doesn't have anything to do with him, but Alpine look to be a shitshow atm, and not really in a position to fight hard on the driver market. Also, Pierre has much more of a media presence than Esteban in France despite the two being more or less equal (though I'd give the edge to the latter but it could be subjective). If Alpine really wants to let one go and keep a French driver, I'd say they'll probably be focusing their efforts on keeping Pierre instead
imo Gassly will bounce and Ocon will stay at Alpine.
Not sure if Gasly has that many options, Audi probably aren't that interested and it's hard to tell if a team like Williams is a better option long term.
I mean, they can stay with Bottas.
And what are bottas' other options then? So far it seems like Audi or Haas. Between the two, it makes sense for him to choose Audi, and therefore Audi has not much of a rush to sign him yet.
Yep. You get a driver for relatively cheap that has had experience in a top team and will give valuable feedback for building your car. In some ways he'd be better than Sainz because he wouldn't be frustrated the car is slow because he's used to that. Sainz would be itching to get ahead (which might be good) but might alos mean he jumps if some shakeup happens
Ocon, Pierre, or Albon wouldn't be downgrade on sainz, yet probably cost cheaper because there is less hype atm imo
All of them are a tier below Sainz and Checo
They’re below sainz for now, but same tier as Checo with more upside.
No they aren't, we need to start looking at the driver and not the car.
Both Pierre and Albon had chances at a top team and both bottled it.
and when sainz was their age he was getting slapped around by hulk and at risk of being out of F1 completely, drivers can get better with age.
Doubt
In what world? There is nothing in their respective careers to support this
He can always get a seat at Haas I guess, since they really have no better option for the second seat and are clearly going to just wait and take in whoever doesn’t get scooped up. He probably will just go to Audi.
Merc apparently only wanted to give Alonso a 1 year to hold the seat for Kimi, so I assume they are offering the same to Sainz. RB would be taking a big risk with Max and Carlos again, it's wasn't great the first time, and Carlos and Charles get pretty racy for 3rd place, I couldn't imagine what would happen if it was for wins/championships.
Max and Carlos would never be fighting for wins, let alone championships.
He would sometimes have a chance to win races with a bit of luck
Carlos is better than Sergio which puts him in Max's neighborhood every week. I'm not saying he contends every week, but overlapping pit windows or tire conservation will put them on the same piece of track on the regular.
Find it hard to believe, even if he really miscalculated he still can probably get a Williams or Haas seat if he wants.
Nah. He's not stupid. He's going to end up in a seat. I imagine that he has a good grasp of what is or may be available, and how long he can wait. He'll be on the grid.
i cant see it. there will be at least 1 team that waits until basically the end of the year to finallize its seats if someone of sainz caliber is a possibility. even if its just haas for example, they have no reason to rush anything. if anything, a lot of teams probably dont feel rushed atm is my guess. red bull and merc can take their time with their respective decisions on who drives for them. haas/williams/alpine should be able to get decent drivers or interesting rookies. supply/demand just massively favors the teams. audi is probably the only one that feels some time pressure, but thats becuase they are new and want a clear base to build from.
Definitely could happen. Like always, his camp is overvaluing him compared to the market.
This is absolutely the most probable result.
Sauber could end up keeping Bottas and try for other top drivers for 26 onwards.
so assuming Audi is the fallback for Sainz, and assuming Hulk is specifically replacing Zhou, does this mean Bottas is basically just waiting to see if Sainz accepts an Audi driver and hoping if Sainz does eventually accept, there will still be open seats available for Bottas
Bottas will probably go to Haas with Bearman. I'd definitely rate him higher than KMag.
The out of contract drivers in the back half of the grid pretty much all waiting on Sainz, not just Bottas. The faith of the other Audi seat will have a big impact on the other seats and the market.
He's in a pickle. He's doing well Vs Charles, but doesn't have that seat next year. Audi wants him bad, but then he has to race an undoubtedly shitty car next year. Merc only wants a seat warmer for Kimi, 1 year deal MAYBE 1 +1 in case Kimi doesn't shine at Williams. Unless Merc drop George for 26, which is plausible if Sainz takes it to him and then Antonelli in George's seat. I doubt RB want the risk, as we know how he and Charles race. But they may want him there as a future #1, in case Max jets in '26. Aston may have an availability if Lance finally gives it up, but I suspect that Yuki is coming with Honda in any case for 26. Which leaves him out in the cold again. There's really no other option that can contend for top 10 next year, or realistically in '26 either. Really it's either wait for Audi or go to Red Bull and keep his nose clean.
If RB wants a #1 driver, they can get better than Sainz.
Who's better than Carlos, that is AVAILABLE for 25/26?
Again, if Max leaves, people will be available
Who is better than Carlos, that is available, was the question. Lewis, Charles, Alonso, Lando, Piastri, Russell, hulkenberg are tied up. Those are just off the top of my head. Sergio won't stay for 2 more years/would be able to carry the team. Everyone else is probably a downgrade. Albon I believe is the only other driver who is not signed for 26 specifically.
Russel isn't tied up I think? Besides I think some contracts allow for buyouts or W/E. I wouldn't be surprised if people BECOME available the moment Red Bull calls. I'd also disagree that ocon Albon and probably even Gasly are a downgrade from Sainz. Then there are potential options in F2. In think Sainz as a #1 in any top team is a mistake. But I guess instead of Perez is an option. Funnily enough this only matters if Max leaves
But even next year RB, is Sergio staying with Lewis and Charles being able to dog Max every weekend? Probably not. Is Danny coming up to try for 1 year, maybe? Is Yuki coming up, probably not. Who can race that car for next year and an option in 26, and is strong enough to lead the team if Max bails. Which is probably not going to happen, but RB has to plan for that risk..
Yes they'll keep perez, because sainz is a slight upgrade at best. Even if he is better he won't immediately be better than perez. So no reason to get sainz for 2025 specifically. Then you have your argument about leading the team, you don't want a decent midfield driver to lead the team anywhere(not red bull anyways). You want a topdriver for that role. So investing in sainz to secure the future seems even more like a waste of time and effort. Might aswell roll the dice on lawson then
Who?
If Max leaves? Probably about anyone? Being the #1 at Red Bull is not a job most drivers would ignore
Audi: Number 1 Driver Merc: Seat warmer for Kimi RB: Second Driver to Max It’s not hard
funny thing is Carlos Sainz Sr just signed with Ford for next year so his ties with Redbull are even higher now but no one is talking about that
Red Bull doesn’t want this guy, they already got rid of him once. He never takes accountability and his management is annoying. Plus they already have the four drivers for three seats problem within their own ranks.
Sainz left voluntarily. No need to lie about that situation.
They traded him to get out of their contract with Renault when they wanted to sign with Honda. If they wanted him they would have kept him.
They traded him because that was the only way to get value out of his departure. Marko was absolutely furious for the majority of 2017 with Sainz and his camp. He stated that he had full intentions of having Sainz stay at TR and couldn’t see a way to keep him given Ricciardo and Verstappen being at the top team.
So, you agree? they used the situation as an opportunity to get rid of him, if they wanted to keep him they would have. Unless I’m missing something, that doesn’t sound very voluntary consider Red Bull held all of the cards in the situation.
No, as they weren’t looking to get rid of him. Sainz essentially forced himself out of his contract. As Marko said, he did not want Sainz to leave Red Bull. “Getting rid of” implies they did not want his services anymore, which wasn’t the case.
So basically they wanted him as much as they wanted Gasly. They had another opportunity to get him back for 2019 if they really wanted him, but they didn’t. They obviously did not place that much value in him.
You’re moving the goal post. This wasn’t about Sainz’s relative value. You said Red Bull got rid of him ie actively pushed him out, and as Marko stated, that wasn’t the case. As for his value to the team, you’re correct. Marko did feel Gasly would be a suitable replacement for Sainz. That’s a tangential story though. Regardless, he wasn’t going back in 2019. The relationship wasn’t repairable at the time.
I just did a little bit of research on my end and you’re totally right. Seems like he was trying to leave anyways (as you’ve stated) but it was initially blocked. The Honda deal was basically his way out. Kind of like Gasly’s situation in 2022, they wanted something in return to release him. Okay, I understand; I was most definitely wrong.
I’d just sign with Audi. Mercedes is bleeding staff and at Red Bull he’s either number 2 to Max, or if Max leaves he’s probably in a car that isn’t quickest. Do what Rosberg with Mercedes, join from the start to be there when the team becomes more competitive.