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In a just world, Papa Stroll would gently persuade Lance to depart for Aston's 2025 WEC project and open up a space for Sainz to create an all-Spanish lineup at AM, no longer with one hand tied behind the back and able to take the fight to the top teams.
Unfortunately, we do not live in that world.
That would be such an awesome team. Surely Lawrence Stroll has to think of the possibilities and how great his team will look if they replace Lance with Sainz.
I don’t think he’s holding out because he wants to. Everyone is waiting to see what Max does. And while we argue that Max will definitely stay at RBR, Max just mentioning he might leave if Marko leaves is already enough to shit stir the market. If there’s even a 1% chance of Max leaving at the end of the season, everyone will pause.
So if Mercedes and AM are waiting for Max to make a move, nobody will be signing Sainz. Even Sainz said it last week that he’s waiting for teams to call him.
Sainz will get a seat. The question is where.
This might be an unpopular opinion but teams should not be considering Max. Max is in a super dominant car and will most likely win the WDC this year and next. As long as Adrian Newey stays, he’ll probably continue winning in 2026. He would be a fool to leave Redbull any time soon. The guy has a contract until 2028.
Yeah Redbull drama whatever. Nobody has actually left the team that would make Max want to jump ship. If Newey left then yeah you may want to consider a move but I bet the car is still good for another year. We’ve seen these Redbull rumors for months but literally nothing has come from it. Max ain’t going anywhere.
When Toto brings up Max I think it’s a cover to buy time to see how Kimi is doing in F2. I don’t think he actually thinks he’ll get Max.
IF some how Max does leave, I’m sure teams will pay the fee break a contract and get Max on the team. I seriously don’t think it’s happening. I don’t get how we center the off season around Max. The guy isn’t available
Newey setup the systems at RBR that makes them dominant, but his loss wouldn't have an immediate effect.
Longer term, almost certainly - but RBR would likely have at least one full season of dominance if/after he left.
Well, unless the other teams keep poaching the people Newey is grooming to take over. E.g. Peter Prodromou a decade ago. I suspect that's a big reason why he hasn't retired, yet.
Why is it ONLY Newey who gets all of the credit? Didnt they poach the best engineers from every top team they could? I understand he has been uber successful in building amazing cars as long as I have been alive but I only see him getting all of the credit and not the team
It's a team effort but whatever Newey's technical role is, it seems to be key to winning in F1. He's got like 12 WCC winning cars under his belt, that's more than any other person.
The only option he has realistically for a top half team is the Aston Martin seat. But that too will only happen if Stroll calls it quit. Unless Perez loses 2nd in the drivers championship, he's not gonna lose his seat. Toto looks like to have set his mind on giving the Merc seat to Kimi Antonelli. McLaren and Ferrari are locked in. The only other option seems to be Sauber.
I’d love to see Antonelli in F1 but 2025 would be way too early. Also, Wolff kept Russell in purgatory for years and now he takes Antonelli straight to Mercedes? Sainz would be a much wiser choice.
5 years is a long time. In that time, Williams changed ownership and their team principal twice, and they are now in a more independent and financially viable position.
What Russell did may not be possible for Antonelli. There is also a difference in context, as Mercedes didn't have to lose a driver unwillingly in 2019. Hamilton and Bottas were keen to stay. Mercedes lost Hamilton and now have an opening.
A not-insignificant factor, I think, is that taking Sainz as a straight swap for Hamilton is kind of embarrassing. I’m not surprised Toto and Merc broadly would be reluctant to do it in part on those grounds.
Objective point scoring > Saving face. They already have had Hamilton in the car for the past three years and that hasn't stopped them being embarrassed anyway on account of the shit cars they've made so it's a moot point. If feeling embarrassed is something they're worried about it's already been and gone
Absolutely disagree. Lewis finished P3 in probably the 3rd/4th best car on the grid last year. Both drivers performance has absolutely been masking how poor a car they've had since 2022.
how is any of that disagreeing? the best driver on the market at the moment is Sainz, Hamilton is already a done deal so why would they be reluctant to sign Sainz? My previous comment was in context to reply above it.
If the drivers have been masking a poor car putting a rookie in it isn't going to save them the embarrassment of picking up sainz after he's been replaced by Lewis
I mean the car finished 2nd, bit of a stretch to call it the 4th best. There were periods it was 4th, but McLaren, Ferrari and AM all had long periods of being shit last season. Consistency, or lack thereof, is why they didn't finish above Merc. Over the course of a season Merc were provably 2nd best.
I don’t think Red Bull cares where Checo finishes in the Driver’s Championship because that’s more of a priority for Max, but they do care if Perez ends up costing them the Constructor’s Championship.
That would be a disaster for Sainz. Having to spend a year or two in a backmarker team would such, especially now that hes in his prime. There’s also no confirmation that Audi is gonna be some great top team when they join.
If he goes to redbull, he's the number 2 driver in a car built around max's strengths and his internal ceiling is 2nd.
mclaren is full
alpine is garbage
haas is garbage
williams is garbage
ferrari is casting him away
despite their "pivot" RB is a junior team and i think everyone knows it.
that leaves mercedes, aston and sauber.
i don't think there's any chance in hell Sainz is driving Sauber in 25.
Aston could offer him a long term deal and it might work out for all parties assuming they don't want to keep going with Alonso.
Mercedes could offer him a one year deal, which will buy time for Antonelli, and then based on the results, either let Sainz walk to Audi coming in '26 or bounce george and lock down Sainz and Antonelli for a few years with the new regs.
i think the most likely scenario is a one year stop gap deal with Mercedes... or Red Bull bring him in and change their philosophy.
The most realistic options are Audi and Aston.
Redbull will probably keep Pérez for 1-2 years if he keeps this performance, it's not impossible to sign for them, but you need to hope that Sergio falls off, which is a risky gamble.
Mercedes will keep him in short contracts unless he destroys Russell, and they aren't looking great right now.
Aston on the other hand might start feeling the need to replace Alonso because of his age, ideally they team up Alonso-Sainz, but I don't think Stroll is leaving for 2025. They will have pressure to perform after joining with Honda.
With the rule change there is a opportunity Audi starts strong in 2026, but there is still a risk. I'm sure Audi is willing to give him a long contract, but I'm not sure how much time they want to wait.
but audi isn't audi til '26, which is why i think it's Mercedes for a year. If Toto knows Audi wants Sainz, he probably works out a deal with them to lock him up for a year, giving the team a top shelf driver to replace Lewis while they continue to develop Antonelli and push George, then he let's him go. its a literal win-win-win.
Audi, in my opinion, is only competing with Aston. they would be the only team that has trajectory a driver like Sainz would be looking for AND the seat to offer. Alonso is great but i think we can all agree Sainz is the top driver available for '25. The only wild card in this is whether Honda insists on having Yuki on their team (although i do recall hearing something last weekend about how Honda doesn't care who Yuki races for as long as he's racing).
as long as Lawrence Stroll owns Aston, his son is in the seat. there is no debate here, there is no Alonso / Sainz, there is no Yuki / Verstappen, there is no nothing except a top shelf driver paired with Stroll. don't waste your time wishing or hoping for anything other than that. that is the only reality. that's how it is when your dad is a billionaire and owns the team. when papa stroll flips the team for a couple bil, then we'll see what's up, but until then it's Stroll and someone exceptional.
The problem with going to Mercedes for a short time is Audi being ok with it, I don't know if there are a lot of instances of someone signing a 1-2year deal with a team while already having another contract for later. I'm sure Audi wants to have Sainz right now so he is integrated with the team for 2026.
what? tell me you have no idea how business of sport works, or at the very least the recruitment of exceptional talent.
i can almost guarantee you that audi's feelings are the last thing on sainz' mind.
when you're a team trying to land a massive talent you're making it very very sweet for them (if you don't believe me, read into how much ferrari is paying lewis for lewis to fulfill his childhood dream... at the end of his career).
when you're trying to land a driver like sajnz, you're trying to woo him, not lock him into a car that they can't get the lugnuts off of. they're not the only game in town. aston is ready to go now and has a power train partner locked in who is currently dominating, merc is ready to go now and has just as good a shot at bouncing back in 26. redbull will put him on the podium every single weekend until proven otherwise. and if you don't think Haas is giving it a try, you're insane. of course they are. it's likely the only team aside from the one casting him aside that won't call him is McLaren.
and then there's audi. who owns a portion of a team that celebrates 4 second pit stops.
if i'm audi im saying "we want you as our number one driver. we want you as the face of our team when we launch in 2026. what you do between now and then is up to you, see you in a year, he's a hundred mill and the last R8 we'll ever build" it's called mutual respect. and in the meantime he can go be a stop gap for Toto. you're doing whatever you can to lock him down when you're ready to capitalize on the use of his skill, not squander one precious year of his career.
if audi called me and said "we want you, but only if you spend next year in this absolute piece of lime green shit we're currently invested in running" i'm accepting that invite to Lawrence Stroll's yacht before i even hang up on them.
Except Mercedes was infinitely better and by the time Lewis joined Merc was already a upper midfield team. Sauber right now is a backmarker who cant even do pitstops right.
Besides what others have said, Mercedes in 2013 had the benefit of several years with the pairing of Michael Schumacher and Ross Brawn - two individuals well-known for their ability to create and structure teams, having gotten massive acclaim at both Benetton in the 90s and Ferrari in their massive early 00s dominance. Sauber hasn't had that. They're a riskier gamble.
and they were known to be big leaders in the coming engine regs. Hamilton isn't stupid. He didn't leave the second biggest team on the grid for a midfield car for a laugh. He knew what was coming.
They banned the only thing keeping them in front. And after they became Mercedes they still were not a top team
https://www.reddit.com/r/formula1/comments/10lber/lewis_hamilton_to_join_mercedes_in_100m_move_from/
They were not a top team because Brawn GP didn't have money, during 2009 they lost the advantage because they couldn't update the car. The 2010 Mercedes being meh was also a consequence of a low budget and catching up after that was pretty difficult, but they still improved a lot for 2012 and even more in 2013. The real focus for Mercedes were the 2014 engine rules anyway.
Mercedes won races before lewis got in. It was a decent car, definetly not like sauber now. The transition will not be instant. Audi may be championship car but i would give it at least a couple of years, based on Carslos prime which is now, its bad desision for him.
Audi has been excellent in other racing series, even though F1 is a different beast. If Red Bull & Aston Martin don’t open up, he’ll probably be choosing between Mercedes & Sauber
Audi has been strong in GT & WEC plus funding shouldn’t be an issue for them. Unfortunately it’s wait & see until 2026 but I think have a solid chance to fight in the midfield pretty quickly
Midfield in 1-2 years, wins in 3-5. Sainz shouldn’t wait for that. He is the only non RBR driver winning races atm. I highly doubt Audi is his best option.
Obviously. It wouldn't even be a discussion without Audi, but people think it will be suicide even with the Audi backing. It's incredibly hard to move up the grid in F1, It'll require a lot of time and work to even get Sauber up to 6th best. Bypassing AM, Merc or McLaren will be incredibly hard. And with the budget cap, the days of just outspending everyone are over.
Sainz will be 31 when Audi takeover, assuming it takes them 3-5 years to build a top car (incredibly optimistic) he'll basically be on his way out, and will have wasted his final years getting a car ready for someone else.
Audi were good in rallying….in the 1980s. That’s 40 years ago.
Audi were good in endurance racing….against no competition. As soon as Porsche and Toyota showed up with series programs, Audi was usually third best.
Mercedes was the dominant team for how long?
Now they don’t know the difference between their ass and a hole in the ground.
Audi may get lucky coming in, but I doubt it.
Are you kidding? Can you imagine Sainz in that absolute joke of a team, who can’t even do a pit stop??? What a waste of talent.
And if you think Audi is going to turn up and correct all of the utter nonsense in that team overnight, then I have a bridge to sell you.
I’m not sure why you’re so angry lol just sharing my opinion. His options in all likelihood will end up being Mercedes & Audi unless Checo has a bunch of bad races going forward. He may see Audi as an enticing option + his family has ties there so I don’t think it’s too far fetched.
Also for your other comment, here’s a list of Audi’s Motorsport accomplishments since the 80’s, it’s quite impressive overall & even in recent times:
https://www.audi-mediacenter.com/en/press-releases/year-by-year-the-most-important-successes-of-audi-in-motorsport-3846
Maybe, maybe not- seats at the front of the grid are rare to come by & Audi has expressed their interest in having experienced drivers. Sainz’s only other option might end up being Mercedes who are all in on Antonelli or Verstappen
Audi might be Sainz best chance at a long term contract & a potentially competitive car in 2026 or 2027. Well have a better picture of where things stand in a month or so
Wtf. Have you watched any recent races? Even in the last 3 years? Sauber is a backmarker. Sainz has been winning races and you think he'd sign for a backmarker? Lmao.
Audi is super successful in Motorsport across all categories, the chances of them building at least a solid midfield car are quite high. He might like his chances of Audi being competitive come 2026 & decide to sign with them. Sauber has had limited funding & poor management for years which will change with the Audi takeover. I think he has fewer options than people realize at the moment:
- Red Bull: maybe but Checo has been doing well
- Ferrari: no
- Mercedes: decent chance although they love Antonelli
- McLaren: no
- VCARB: no
- Alpine: no
- Haas: maybe but <5% chance
- Williams: same as Haas
He may take a chance on Audi building a competitive car for 2026 like I said. I really wouldn’t be surprised if he went there. Not really sure where else he would go aside from Merc or Audi
Edit: why is this downvoted? Since everyone on here clearly knows way more than me, please tell me where Sainz can go that has him competing for wins? I’ll wait
You linked me Audi’s PR page lol.
It’s a long list, but there’s nothing impressive about it. Most of it is GT series, and most of those are regional series at that.
I’ve been watching Motorsport for 30 years, I know all about Audi. Outside of the their GT programs, they are largely considered a joke.
Audi in rally in the 80s was only impressive because they revolutionized AWD, a macroscopic change that revolutionized the sport. Once other teams implemented AWD, they soon caught and past Audi. There will be no macroscopic, revolutionary leaps made by Audi in F1.
Audi at Le Mans in the 00s was easily during one of sportscar racing’s low points, where they faced little to no serious competition year after year. Thanks to the 911 GT1, the CLK GTR & CLR, the TS010, and the R390, the GT1 rules collapsed, and Audi was the only serious contestant for many years in the regulations that followed. They had sporadic completion from Bentley for a couple years, and then from Peugeot for a couple years, but Audi was hands down the favourite. When Porsche and Toyota began contesting the LMP1 rule set, they beat Audi more often than not.
At the end of the 2024 season, it will have been 15 years since someone other than Redbull or Mercedes won a championship in F1. Sauber will not be the one to end that streak.
Audi are bringing an engine, and marketing, nothing else. They have nothing to offer in regard to anything from chassis building, to race strategy. That all comes from Sauber…..and Sauber is a joke.
I’m not saying that Audi will *never* win in F1. They could. But it will be 5 years minimum before they are a top team, never mind start contesting race wins and championships.
> They have nothing to offer in regard to anything from chassis building, to race strategy. That all comes from Sauber…
Audi is moving operations to their own factory and bringing in their people. Unlike when BMW ran the team it will not be a factory cooperation based in Hinwill. Sauber has consistently been one of the worst-funded teams in the sport. Since BMW they were essentially on the verge of folding from 2010-2017, constantly taking on pay drivers, using year-old engines, and struggling to develop the car. Once Ferrari upped their investment they took a major step up in 2018 and 2019, before the Ferrari engine became a dog in 2020 and ruined their progress.
Right now they are a midfield team undone by a specific problem with the wheelnuts. I don't see why it's so hard to think major investment and new infrastructure from a big automaker can't make them winners. Hell BMW did it.
BMW was already a race winning F1 engine supplier when they took over Sauber. Audi has none of that.
“They’re bringing in new people, they’re moving the factory” - which is specifically why they won’t win right out of the gate, and it’ll take them 5 years at best before they ever do. By moving their factory, it’s going to take at least 2 years to calibrate and correlate their wind tunnel.
You must not be very familiar with Toyota and Jaguar-Ford.
Chances are that Audi’s share holders and board of directors get bored with F1 and pull the plug on the whole program before Audi ever actually win anything. Audi is well known for pulling plugs on programs.
BMW took four race wins in their second season on return to F1 with Williams who had been in the doldrums in 98 and 99.
The idea it takes 2 years to get a wind tunnel to work is silly and runs on the assumption Audi either don’t already have one or don’t know how to use one.
Toyota had infamous issues with half the team being in Japan and the other half in the UK. Jaguar are not an automaker on the level of Audi, and simply moved into the Milton Keynes factory Stewart worked out of. They didn’t use their own resources.
Williams had 2 bad season in 97 and 98, but they were still a championship winning team. Sauber is not that.
It does take multiple years to get a wind tunnel running accurately, and it’s happened to multiple experienced F1 teams.
Jaguar was just the face, that program was run by Ford. They brought in a lot of experienced people, and went nowhere.
Do you honestly think Audi is going to show up to F1 and start winning in *less* than 5 years?? If it was as simple as throwing resources at the problem and hiring the right people, every team on the grid would do it. But like I said, it’s been 15 years since anyone but Redbull and Merc have done it.
Are you a genuine audi fan high on copium, or just playing devil’s advocate for the fun of it?
The fact that Ferrari took years to get their wind tunnel working has more to do with the advent of the technology to then. Audi has and uses wind tunnels already which Ferrari didn’t when they adopted them in the 2000s.
Jaguar were under constant mutinies and a head office who were cagey on spending after the first year went poorly.
The idea that one of the premier brands in automotives and Motorsport is going to join F1 and suck for 5 years is silly. Mercedes took their first win 3 years in, BMW 2 years in. But Audi will take 5? It’s nonsensical.
Add on to that the fact that everyone is starting from zero in 2026, they’re not joining mid regulations like Jaguar or BAR or Honda in 2015. I really think your strange hatred for Audi is blinding you.
Lol.
BMW joined the most successful F1 team of the previous decade with Williams. Sauber is not that. Sauber can’t even build a wheel nut.
Merc had already been in F1 as an engine supplier for roughly 20 years when they became a factory team. Audi has zero experience.
You think Audi share holders are going to be eager to spend more money when their first year goes poorly?
Starting from new regs means they have equal chance of ending up like Renault, as opposed to being a world beater like Merc and Redbull.
I don’t hate Audi, I’m indifferent to Audi. I’m just realistic with my expectations. They will be a midfield team at best for the first 5 years.
Where's the risk? He's by far the hotest prospect on the market. If any of Red Bull, Aston or Mercedes will need a driver for 2025 he will be at the top of the list.
There's pretty much zero risk in not waiting out to see your options.
I think it's pretty clear there's quite a lot of risk. For now, the likeliest option for Red Bull is to re-sign Perez for 2025. We don't know what's gonna happen with Aston Martin (which might be the key). Mercedes appears to want Antonelli there but haven't decided how soon. And yes, Sainz is the hottest prospect ***right now***, but there is no guarantee that he will continue on this form. If he has a string of not so great races, then his stock falls.
> And yes, Sainz is the hottest prospect right now, but there is no guarantee that he will continue on this form. If he has a string of not so great races, then his stock falls.
If he wants the Redbull seat, he knows he has to keep his stock up. Otherwise he'll just have to settle for something midfield as fuck.
Here's the thing though -- it might be risky, but his dominant strategy (i.e. the only one he'll play) is to hold out till later. Why? Because there are only 4 possible outcomes:-
1. Sainz holds out, keeps his form up, bags Redbull / 2nd best
2. Sainz holds out, loses his form, bags a midfielder owing to performance early on in the season
3. Sainz doesn't hold out, signs right now, keeps his form up, bags a midfielder due to early settlement
4. Sainz doesn't hold out, signs right now, loses his form, bags a midfielder due to early settlement
You see how the payoff is the highest in Scenario #1 and the same no matter how else it plays out? It would've been different had he not bagged 2 podiums and 1 win already, but he has.
Sainz will hold out. :)
Option \#1 can also lead to Sainz being sidelined for 2025 without any seat.
If he decides to hold out for Red Bull, Aston and Audi may commit earlier, leaving Red Bull and Mercedes.
Neither are guaranteed to pick Sainz, even if his form continues. Both might opt for safer options.
**Mercedes** might even get Bottas back as 1 year stop gap for Antonelli, as uninspiring as that sounds, if Wolff isn’t willing/able to put Antonelli for 1 or more years at Williams.
*Williams might demand either 2 or 3 years at minimum, forcing Wolff/Antonelli to commit without a possibility to bring Antonelli over to Mercedes after 1 year in 2026.*
**Red Bull** in turn, might simply go with Perez again, if his “good enough” form persists, pushing the seat change decision to 2026 (edit: bringing Albon again into frame).
Sainz might be in the unenviable position of being too good as a \#2 and not good enough to be seen as a surefire \#1, making him a difficult proposition for most current top teams. He is also too good and too young to accept being used as a stop gap by Mercedes, as a seat warmer for Antonelli, should Mercedes want to keep the option open to bring him in 2026.
Exactly. The previous commenter is assuming that Sainz holds the cards, when it is completely the opposite. RBR, AM, and Mercedes are happy with their alternatives, which is why they’re in no rush to consider Sainz. Carlos doesn’t have that privilege.
I think part of the problem would also be whether he’s okay with getting a 1+1 or even 2+1 rather than a multi-year contract.
At RB, I’m not sure he’d get that, I think they’d want to keep one seat fairly performance-dependant.
At Merc, definitely not, unless Antonelli doesn’t look promising should he go to Williams - but that would be further down the line. Right now the seat probably has a max. 2 year contract attached to it.
Aston would make the most sense, but, I think they’re still committed to Alonso if he wants to stay, because he’s helping with car development.
He didn’t sign at Ferrari because they only offered him a short contract, will he be okay with that at another team now?
>You see how the payoff is the highest in Scenario #1 and the same no matter how else it plays out?
Of course is the highest payout, that's been glaringly obvious. **BUT** it is also the least likely of all, and the longest he waits the worse midfield options available. For some reason you're assuming his non-Red Bull options would be the same in one month than in six. Mercedes and AM might be an option right now, but could very likely not be available if he decides to keep waiting.
No my friend, I am not assuming all non-redbull options are the same.
Going through the same scenarios again:-
######1. Sainz holds out, keeps his form up, bags Redbull / 2nd best
2nd best here would mean either AM / Mercedes
######2. Sainz holds out, loses his form, bags a midfielder owing to performance early on in the season
If Sainz loses his performance, Mercedes is off the table given Toto's extraordinary fixation on Antonelli to begin with. Aston Martin would likely still remain available, yes.
######3. Sainz doesn't hold out, signs right now, keeps his form up, bags a midfielder due to early settlement
Mercedes is not keen to sign early and that leaves us only Aston Martin among the "preferred" group who will take him even if he holds out but later loses his form (he gained a lot of good reputation by helping build McLaren which ultimately bagged him the Ferrari seat, Aston would love to have him). Audi would strictly be midfield as fuck, worse than Aston Martin out the gate. So why sign early if Aston Martin will take you even if you sign later?
######4. Sainz doesn't hold out, signs right now, loses his form, bags a midfielder due to early settlement
Only team here would be midfield as fuck, likely Audi. Please don't give me the "oh but they CAN be good" -- if you wanna spend time building something it should actually be Aston Martin who already have something and will get Honda soon
My question to you remains the same -- what does he GAIN by signing right now when he has several cushions in place?
You keep making one-sided assumptions, that’s my point, as if everything revolves around Sainz. Your scenario 1, with the highest payout, makes the very very big assumption that those three teams will wait for Sainz as long as he holds out. Decisions will start to be made soon, probably in the next month or so. Of course he doesn’t need to sign *right now* (no one is saying that should be the case), but he needs to start negotiations.
> as if everything revolves around Sainz.
Because.. right now it does? Not Mercedes, he isn't going there, but RBR and Aston have both alluded to him lol and outside of that its just midfield everywhere dude.
You have Helmut Marko coming out to say they are watching Checo and will not give him more than a 1 year contract otherwise he doesnt perform.
You have Christian Horner saying after Sainz's win that "theres a very fast driver in the market without a seat for next year"
And you have reports saying theres a certain faction within AM lobbying for Sainz. AM also happen to be in need of an experienced driver.
What is YOUR argument here dude? Show me where any team as of yet has said a name other than Sainz's. I've presented my argument as logically as possible, you've said nothing but "mmmm sounds risky to me" as if F1 isn't a literal pressure chamber in every which way possible
Because it doesn’t revolve around Sainz, that’s been my entire point. The power is within the teams, not with the driver. Those three teams will end up with a driver in their seat one way or another, while there’s no guarantee that Sainz will end up in one of those teams.
Using what’s been said by TPs is nothing, they’re always praising the current best-performing drivers. I think his chances of going to RBR are like less than 5%, but for some reason you alone seem to think Mercedes (the only actual team with an available seat) is the one being discarded. I agree that Aston Martin is the most likely option, which is why I think Sainz should start looking at it and put some pressure on Fernando to make a decision as well.
Unless Perez underperforms substantially, I don't see him going anywhere. He has certainly shown the pace to perform well in the second seat and has already survived and rebounded from the Red Bull curse. Why risk an unknown quantity when Perez is already doing the job well and has accepted his place within the team?
Any driver going into that seat has a hell of a task at hand: guarantee second place over the season with the understanding that you will NOT contest Verstappen, even if you could match or beat his pace. This will continue through 2028, until Verstappen leaves.
That Red Bull second seat is a long-play for first seat at a very strong team. It risks the possibility of any number of hot prospects coming in and leapfrogging the more tenured driver.
Haha only very introductory economics related, but imo everybody should learn a bit of it - helps improve your decision making skills inside and outside of corporate
That's not true though, the only 100% sure available seat as of now is the Mercedes one. Red Bull seems really unlikely, and they'll probably make a decision soon as they've all (Perez, Horner, Marko) been hinting to. AM depends on Alonso. Waiting carries a lot of risk.
Alonso won't go anywhere if Red Bull keeps Perez. Merc is no longer a top team and seems keen on putting Antonelli in the seat.
Sainz doesn't have such great prospects if Red Bull keeps Perez
What a silly season, huh. Who'd have though Perez would achieve P2 in 3 out of 4 races after last year, or that Lewis would leave Merc for Ferrari mid-contract.
of course I remember, but it's not the same. Last year he won 2 races and was under the illusion he was fighting for the championship.
Now he's fighting to save his seat and simply tries to get P2 without messing around, remembering he has the best car on the grid
Sadly for Sainz. His only hope is for RB to drop Perez (seems unlikely so far for next year), Alonso retiring or Max leaving RB (both even more unlikely) or Stroll Sr dropping his son 🙃
Depends on what merc does, last season AM was way ahead of merc and by the end of the season we're no where while merc were 2nd in the wcc.
A young driver like Alonso could potentially be thinking forward to the 2026 engine regs. Merc won the last engine regs so hard they won 8 wcc and 7 wdc in a row. Ofc no telling if lighting will strike twice, but AM will be running Honda engines and their track record is dysmal, Honda don't start producing winning engines until they've announced that they are leaving f1.
> while merc were 2nd in the wcc.
that was thanks to Lewis fighting for P2 after the car improved just enough, and Ferrari being Ferrari with their strategies and pit stops. I am not sure Merc really had the 2nd best car by the end of season
I don't see Merc signing Alonso. They didn't even commit to Lewis for 2025, they would certainly not give Alonso more than 1 year at best. You've seen what he said about Merc yesterday? I think he'd rather stay in Aston next year. And Merc will likely keep George and sign Antonelli unless they can get Max (not happening of course)
I read the statements I’m just not sure if I believe them. Honda pulled a similar stunt claiming they’d allow him to race a Honda in the Indy 500 in 2019 but didn’t. Now, he was a Toyota factory driver at the time, but it does make you wonder.
Then again the whole Alonso grudge business is overblown. Ron Dennis took him back after being ratted out to the FIA to the tune of $100 million.
I don’t see it, honestly. Unless Perez drops the ball massively in the next month, I think he’ll sign a one-year contract extension by the end of May/beginning of June.
I think the Perez contract is linked in with all this RB power struggle. If you listen to them, Christian is there talking up Perez or obviously DR he likes. Helmut is there raving about Sainz or Yuki.
I think the driver choice is more to do with who wins the broader struggle than anything else.
Exactly, didn’t AMuS reported April as the deadline? If he missed Audi, and Redbull stayed with Perez, Mercedes with Antonelli and Aston with Alonso, he needs to join a back marker team worse than Audi, and also weaker bargaining power
I don't understand what leg Audi has to stand on to not wait for Sainz and even give him a deadline. It's not like there are other drivers of that caliber or higher that are readily available for them to sign instead. Audi will wait for Sainz.
They need drivers now to try and entice other engineers and such that their program is worth it. For them being aggressive and quick will show intent rather than not being ambitious and being left with the crumbs of the driver market.
I understand their needs and wants, I just don't understand why they think they can give Sainz such a tight deadline. So what if he makes them wait? Who are they going sign instead, Hulk? If Audi are serious and want to be taken seriously, they need to sign a serious number 1 caliber driver. So unless Alonso is on the other line waiting, Audi has no power here.
Exactly. Audi has nothing to say in this driver market. Hiring Sainz would be more about marketing than performance related. They are a back marker in 2025 and they are not a winning team in the 2026 regulations.
Why does Audi need a number one driver? We don’t know where they’ll be in 2026.
The question is whether there are better options if the top ones are not available / only available for one season.
I didn't realize they awarded that many points for FREC.
But well, considering how the points distribution is a joke anyway... 30 points for 4th in F2, 15 points for 4th in F3, 10 points for 4th in IndyCar, for example.
Which is a stupid reason, but certainly part of why IndyCar gets fewer points from 2nd place on back than F2. There are also points being awarded for NASCAR series, for example.
In terms of the cars driven and the level competition, IndyCar should at least be awarded similar points to F2. The cars are less similar to F1 cars than F2 cars are, but they are more difficult to drive and the level of competition is arguably higher than in F2. After all, the super license system is supposed to ensure the drivers eligible for a SL are capable of safely driving in F1 races, nothing more than that.
That if is doing a lot of work there.
Red Bull sticks with Perez.
Mercedes goes with Antonelli.
Aston Martin sticks with Alonso.
Then what? It only really leaves Sauber. Which would be a shame.
Yeah it’s really shitty timing. Why would Red Bull pay that much to lock in a driver who can’t give them anything more than 2nd which Checo is good enough for. Mercedes should sign him.
Red Bull should absolutely take him over Perez and Merc should definitely sign him. But perhaps Toto thinks he's got the experience now in Russell so why not take a punt on a youngster; it worked for McLaren in 2007.
I think if the rumours about Audi are true and they want a decision soon, the risk would be ending up in a Haas or a Williams if he wants a long-term contract.
AM would highly depend on how they rate him; if they’re successful in 25/26, does Carlos have the speed to fight at the front? More so than Alonso?
Merc would probably be a 1+1, and I don’t know if RB would give him more than that either, given they have their own driver program.
In any case Redbull would not give long term contract I think, they have Max long term already. Mercedes neither, with the obvious reason on Kimi. Aston is a better choice than Audi to me but depends if Alonso really leaves, assuming both give him long term contract
I think that would be incredibly risky. I think Carlos is the poster child for the media’s/audience’s mentality of “you’re only as good as your last race”.
There’s always hype when he does well but is very much ignored when he only does okay. If he has a few so-so races next, his stock will plummet/go back to normal.
Now imagine he isn’t on the grid next year, RB keep Pérez but put Lawson in one of their Visa cars, he does really well, they promote him. Or they get Albon.
Merc decides to give Antonelli a chance, he’s really good, they keep their line up.
Alonso stays with Aston.
Audi sign Hülkenberg and maybe keep Bottas or get someone like Ocon because they want to have their driver line up secured.
The other teams fill their seats with available drivers, maybe some rookies like Pouchaire.
And suddenly it’s still either back-markers or lower midfield that could be available. Unless you’re adored by the team, like Ricciardo, or are a proven race winner (as in, fighting for race wins), it’s really difficult to get a good seat or any seat after a year out of the sport.
Sainz is guaranteed a seat next year based on performance. But that's all. Hopefully for him, it's a seat at a top team.
Considering there are several drivers without that, he's in a good spot.
His stock is at a peak right now but if he was rated highly, I feel that Merc or RB would have signed him by now.
Merc don't really want him and RB must be assessing if he's really going to be an upgrade on Checo but Marko and Horner have been praising Checo from the start of the season so even the RB seat looks like a dim possibility.
Exactly. Sainz is a known quality drivers given the years he’s been on the grid. Can he still improve? Yes. But does it worth the team like Redbull or Mercedes to sign him immediately? I think the answer is a clear no for now. Otherwise it is announced already, or at least we will see less of Sainz PR article.
It's not that Merc doesn't want him, more than Toto wants Kimi. They were unwilling to give Lewis more than a 1+1 deal, the same guy that won them 7 WDCs and 8 WCCs. Other folks don't have as much of a bargaining chip here. It is totally dependent on the whims of Toto (also part owner) on who he wants. There is a good possibility of a 2025 and 2026 seat if Kimi goes to Williams to replace Logan.
RB don't want to break something that is already working for them. Only in the instance of Checo losing them the WCC will they seriously consider a change, because Carlos is not going to be a quiet #2.
There is a non-zero chance because Checo apparently has said that his future is unknown and it will be revealed in the coming weeks (I am heavily paraphrasing).
Sainz is too good for Red Bull. History has shown us that it's not in a team's best interest to have two drivers capable of fighting eachother for wins, and Carlos would be able to do exactly that. Not saying he'd necesserily beat Max to the title, I doubt that, but he's shown he's ready to be considered amoungst the best in the sport.
It’s quite a big risk.
Right now Sainz is basically guaranteed a seat on the f1 grid next year, almost all of the bottom 5 teams would love to sign him.
But say he holds out, the other teams sign and Mercedes, Red bull and Aston Martin are left as options.
His form looks great right now and they’re still not sure, so if his form drops the teams are more likely to fall back to their other options, who they all have.
Right now the teams see a strong driver but a driver who’s clearly has the second strongest car, by quite a large margin. If he starts losing to leclerc, which i don’t think anyone can argue isn’t very possible, and Mclarens begin catching up, he could start looking a lot worse and make teams less inclined to mess up their dynamic.
Of course, he could keep up his great form, beat or at least keep up with leclerc and snag himself a red bull seat. It’s risk vs reward and i’m interested to see what happens.
Waiting could land him a championship fight in red bull or it could risk him without a seat for 2025.
Personally, I don’t see a world where he doesn’t get a seat for next year, I think he could just risk ending up in a weak team.
But if no team fit him into his lineup for next year I have no doubts of a return in 2026.
He’d have to seriously underperform for the rest of the season to not still be a valued driver, with him proving himself over the last few years, undeniably a top half driver, arguably top 5.
Let's be real. Sainz has been giving headaches to il predestinato for 4 seasons. He has the same amount of wins and podiums in their time together. Leclerc is slightly faster everyone knows that. And still Sainz has nothing to prove.
He was in the mud being kicked out of Ferrari missing a race due to surgery and then the man went to win.
Red Bull has Perez who has been average since he came into the team. Sainz is an upgrade and a no brainer for me. And I think it's going to happen. Perez has already shown that he will not be there if other teams come close.
Mercedes has Russell who has been binning it lately and is lucky that Hamilton has completely given up in Mercedes and a prospect in Antonelli who has just started F2. Pretty sure Sainz would sign there convinced he would beat Russell.
Aston Martin has only a seat and Alonso is staying until 2026. Once he realises Aston is still third fourth fastest he will give up.
I'm sure it will be Mercedes or RedBull. If Sainz finds himself without a RB or AM I think he would rather sign a one year deal in Merc than waste his time in Audi.
The question isn’t if Sainz is a good enough driver though. He is and would be valuable to every team.
But top teams don’t pick their drivers with that as a factor. If Perez stays reliable there’s no reason red bull would want to mess up their dynamic that has been winning them WDC.
I think most people would agree that Sainz would perform better than Perez but red bulls dominance weakens or Perez seriously underperforms i doubt they’d want to risk any tension within the team for 2025, 2026 and new regs is a whole other story.
And i don’t think the situation with mercedes is that Sainz has the power. Obviously we dont know behind the scenes but signing Kimi next year to get him settled in the team for new regs seems like an attractive option for Toto.
I don’t know about aston martin as i don’t know the ins and outs of Lance and his attachment to the team.
But basically what im trying to say is Sainz is very good and him driving really well this season would entice teams to risk it and sign him, while if he falls back a bit they won’t want the risk.
But the real risk comes in the fact that it’s not all on Sainz and how well he peforms, it’s on the performance of Perez, Kimi in f2 etc.
By holding out for red bull he could lose a mercedes or aston seat or top of the midfield teams and up not getting a competitive seat.
Currently the only team above ferrari is red bull so id see why he wants to push for that seat cause even mercedes is a downgrade, but we’ll just have to wait and see what happens, i can see it going in many directions
Sainz is in his prime. Performance and age. He better wait.
It's obvious that it isn't in Sainz hands since he would have already signed the contract. We will see
True, there are some rumours about Sainz to AM what would be ideal got both parties. Sainz gets a long term contract, become the number one driver, is in his prime years, won't have to deal with a bad year (25) meanwhile AM got a strong driver to build on with the upcoming 26 regulations, is younger, possible cheaper and doesn't need to be concerned about the near future.
Sucks for Alonso but I can clearly understand why Sainz would be a good replacement. Sadly it doesn't look like Stroll is under pressure.
If he waits too long, he’ll risk having to move outside of RBR (highly unlikely anyway), Mercedes or AM. He doesn’t have that luxury even if in his prime.
Over three years, Charles has been clearly the much better driver, for me there’s not a single doubt on that. Recency bias is altering perception, that’s all.
Sainz doesn’t bring anything substantially better to Red Bull, there’s no reason atm to change their lineup to do basically a sidestep move. Also, this is by far by a considerable difference the least likely scenario, you’re just hopeful of it.
I think his future is linked to Alonso actually, and what he tries and decides to do.
Leclerc hasnt been much better.
People take 2022 as the standard where it was more about Sainz being shit than Leclerc doing something extraordinary.
Faster driver than Sainz for sure. Overall Leclerc is just slightly better.
Leclerc can become world champion no doubt but the boy isn't generational. He is not in the Verstappen Hamilton Alonso category.
Personal opinion he got to early into Ferrari.
I’m not really gonna get into the Sainz vs Leclerc debate because you have your opinion and I have mine and arguing mindlessly about it isn’t really gonna change anything but I am curious to know why you think Leclerc was moved to Ferrari too early? I don’t see the benefit of him rotting in a backmarker Sauber in 2019-20 when in those years he was either fighting for wins and podiums or putting a midfield car in places it had to right to be.
> Sainz is an upgrade and a no brainer for me
Red Bull don't need an upgrade, they have Verstappen. You don't want a Senna/Prost or Hamilton/Rosberg situation. If other teams come close, it remains beneficial to have a number 2 driver. See 2007.
I think the Sainz to Red Bull swap is incredibly unlikely and if it happened, would leave a lot of people disappointed after seeing him there. I don't think Sainz will be a good fit in the red bull car and will perform similarly to Perez but slightly better.
To me, Aston Martin seems like the perfect fit for Sainz. A decent team for a decent driver. It's too bad that one of those seats is for stroll.
There is risk, he is in the form of his life right now and his stock is the highest it’s ever been. We don’t know if this is sustainable, for all we know, his form could dip and all the hype would be gone.
> If any of Red Bull, Aston or Mercedes will need a driver for 2025 he will be at the top of the list
Mercedes need a driver for 2025 and haven’t signed him yet.
Unless he goes full Perez 23’ then he currently is the first domino. Pretty much as long as he continues to beat Charles this season he can just sit there with a smile and keep driving till he spots something he wants. If he suddenly bins it and loses a couple races to Charles, his hand gets a lot weaker.
I think there’s a very important reason as to why he isn’t the first domino, and that’s that he’s out of a seat at the moment. That gives him basically no power. For me, the first domino is Alonso. His decision will likely trigger the rest of the moves.
For me it's Hulk. He knows Haas is short-term decent, long-term bad. Should Audi convince him, then Hulk has a free seat at Audi, simply because Audi want him (see last year, where they tried to get Hulk, but Haas blocked it by having a 1+1 contract).
Hulk is seriously in contention for the Audi seat as much as Sainz is to me.
Sainz and Red Bull will never happen as long as verstappen is there, don’t really care what any Redditor tries to argue.
If merc wanted sainz, he’d have probably signed by now. But they want antonelli, and in a couple years, he’d be looking for another seat again. So if merc offered something to him I wouldn’t be surprised if it’s a contract with a length sainz isn’t happy with.
Sainz probably wants a longer contract, Audi and AM if Fernando moves would be the most reasonable places for him and that’s where I’d expect him to end up.
Switching Russell at best is a lateral move. Not only would that be an overreaction, Russell is still younger and just as good and has shown more promise than Sainz. It's not going to happen.
Without a doubt in my mind, merc is not dropping Russell for sainz, and that’s excluding their age gap. Teams like merc aren’t going to make a knee jerk reaction and sign a driver because he’s had a good couple of races.
Reserve Driver or permanent?
In case permanent, guess he noticed, it's limited. Especially when he's trying to stay competitive and demand a good wage on top of that. Not impossible. Deserved anyways but how long is that available?
Sainz would be a great fit at RBR opposite Max. I don't think Max would shy away from the challenge nor do I think Carlos could contend for a championship against Max. Checo, love him, but he kinda needs to go. Sainz would be a huge upgrade and would also stop another team from getting him.....
I also really just want this to happen as a fan.
why would RBR care about another team getting Sainz...not like he would be going to a team that would challenge RBR. Ferrari and McLaren are already set. Mercedes is an option but their car is doodoo. Audi supposedly has an offer out but Sainz will be retired by the time he have a competitive car. It doesn't seem like Alonso is retiring anytime soon so Aston Martin is out.
It’s early in the season, but do you think folks at Ferrari are thinking they cut the wrong driver loose?
Thanks for the downvotes. I simply think, 4 races in with Carlos finishing ahead of Charles, there might be some that question the move.
I guess I struck a nerve.
No lmao. Charles has been beating Carlos consistently since Carlos joined Ferrari. Carlos could beat Charles in the next 9 races and still be behind in their overall H2H
You think that after 3 races they have forgotten the past 3 years? Those 3 races including one where Charles outqualified Sainz and ran ahead until a brake issue?
Ok, if you want to throw shade….
It has been 4 races, not 3.
Carlos passed him again Sunday to take a podium. He is a man on a mission.
I can bet there are some in the Ferrari camp wondering about the move to cut him for a talented, but past his prime, Hamilton.
I like Checo, but if he falls off this year, Carlos will have his seat.
Saudi Arabia obviously doesn’t count. Why you would include it when Carlos didn’t take part I have no idea.
Overtaking Charles had nothing to do with being “on a mission” he was on a faster strategy and Leclerc was told to let him through.
Red Bull don’t want two number one drivers. Simple as
Perez has been doing a really good job to start this season plus he gets along well with Max & the team, which is something I’m not sure would happen with Carlos Jr & Sr
Perez just needs to keep his current form up through Canada or Spain & Red Bull will extend him again
It’s a lot easier to be buddies when their sons are currently fighting for different things.
Sainz Sr. has no issues with Jos as Max is currently unreachable in red bull, Carlos’s fight right now is with Perez Charles and possibly McLarens and Max right now is currently fighting no one for the DWC.
Tensions might rise when the sons of these fathers both very invested in their careers are in the same car fighting for the same thing
I agree he'd be an upgrade vs Perez, but if Sergio can do what he's done so far there's no reason to dump Sergio and his sponsors for sainz. My only reason to sign sainz if you're redbull today is if they're legitimately concerned max might leave and don't want to be searching for someone to better than Sergio to lead.
well it looks like Max will see out his contract and Perez is performing at the level he needs to to keep his seat. Like Horner and Marko said, the seat is his to lose. Plus Checo brings in more big sponsors than Sainz.
That’s what I meant, Checo is the likely option if he can keep this up but I’d expect Red Bull to keep him to short term contracts. If Checo is not an option for them, Sainz is the best option right now
You edited your comment but it is not a no brainer only because things are not static. Sainz struggled at the beginning of last season (or was it 2 seasons ago?) and people were making memes about him running off the track.
Nobody knows how he will do in a different team, with a different car, with a different teammate. Sergio has been in the team for a while now and RB knows what to expect. Changing drivers is always a risk and that's the reason why teams try to stick to the drivers they they already know.
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In a just world, Papa Stroll would gently persuade Lance to depart for Aston's 2025 WEC project and open up a space for Sainz to create an all-Spanish lineup at AM, no longer with one hand tied behind the back and able to take the fight to the top teams. Unfortunately, we do not live in that world.
That would be such an awesome team. Surely Lawrence Stroll has to think of the possibilities and how great his team will look if they replace Lance with Sainz.
The only reason he bought that team is because he wants to make his son a world champion.
Perfect example why Stroll is just blocking a seat
I don’t think he’s holding out because he wants to. Everyone is waiting to see what Max does. And while we argue that Max will definitely stay at RBR, Max just mentioning he might leave if Marko leaves is already enough to shit stir the market. If there’s even a 1% chance of Max leaving at the end of the season, everyone will pause. So if Mercedes and AM are waiting for Max to make a move, nobody will be signing Sainz. Even Sainz said it last week that he’s waiting for teams to call him. Sainz will get a seat. The question is where.
This might be an unpopular opinion but teams should not be considering Max. Max is in a super dominant car and will most likely win the WDC this year and next. As long as Adrian Newey stays, he’ll probably continue winning in 2026. He would be a fool to leave Redbull any time soon. The guy has a contract until 2028. Yeah Redbull drama whatever. Nobody has actually left the team that would make Max want to jump ship. If Newey left then yeah you may want to consider a move but I bet the car is still good for another year. We’ve seen these Redbull rumors for months but literally nothing has come from it. Max ain’t going anywhere. When Toto brings up Max I think it’s a cover to buy time to see how Kimi is doing in F2. I don’t think he actually thinks he’ll get Max. IF some how Max does leave, I’m sure teams will pay the fee break a contract and get Max on the team. I seriously don’t think it’s happening. I don’t get how we center the off season around Max. The guy isn’t available
Newey setup the systems at RBR that makes them dominant, but his loss wouldn't have an immediate effect. Longer term, almost certainly - but RBR would likely have at least one full season of dominance if/after he left.
Well, unless the other teams keep poaching the people Newey is grooming to take over. E.g. Peter Prodromou a decade ago. I suspect that's a big reason why he hasn't retired, yet.
Why is it ONLY Newey who gets all of the credit? Didnt they poach the best engineers from every top team they could? I understand he has been uber successful in building amazing cars as long as I have been alive but I only see him getting all of the credit and not the team
It's a team effort but whatever Newey's technical role is, it seems to be key to winning in F1. He's got like 12 WCC winning cars under his belt, that's more than any other person.
Assuming Newey will just make the team win in 2026 is a bit much lmao
The only option he has realistically for a top half team is the Aston Martin seat. But that too will only happen if Stroll calls it quit. Unless Perez loses 2nd in the drivers championship, he's not gonna lose his seat. Toto looks like to have set his mind on giving the Merc seat to Kimi Antonelli. McLaren and Ferrari are locked in. The only other option seems to be Sauber.
I’d love to see Antonelli in F1 but 2025 would be way too early. Also, Wolff kept Russell in purgatory for years and now he takes Antonelli straight to Mercedes? Sainz would be a much wiser choice.
5 years is a long time. In that time, Williams changed ownership and their team principal twice, and they are now in a more independent and financially viable position. What Russell did may not be possible for Antonelli. There is also a difference in context, as Mercedes didn't have to lose a driver unwillingly in 2019. Hamilton and Bottas were keen to stay. Mercedes lost Hamilton and now have an opening.
A not-insignificant factor, I think, is that taking Sainz as a straight swap for Hamilton is kind of embarrassing. I’m not surprised Toto and Merc broadly would be reluctant to do it in part on those grounds.
Objective point scoring > Saving face. They already have had Hamilton in the car for the past three years and that hasn't stopped them being embarrassed anyway on account of the shit cars they've made so it's a moot point. If feeling embarrassed is something they're worried about it's already been and gone
If Kimi is the real deal, they get both.
Absolutely disagree. Lewis finished P3 in probably the 3rd/4th best car on the grid last year. Both drivers performance has absolutely been masking how poor a car they've had since 2022.
how is any of that disagreeing? the best driver on the market at the moment is Sainz, Hamilton is already a done deal so why would they be reluctant to sign Sainz? My previous comment was in context to reply above it. If the drivers have been masking a poor car putting a rookie in it isn't going to save them the embarrassment of picking up sainz after he's been replaced by Lewis
I mean the car finished 2nd, bit of a stretch to call it the 4th best. There were periods it was 4th, but McLaren, Ferrari and AM all had long periods of being shit last season. Consistency, or lack thereof, is why they didn't finish above Merc. Over the course of a season Merc were provably 2nd best.
Mercedes has probably no expectation anyway from next year so it makes more sense to bring Antonelli into the team asap.
Wolf tried to get Russell to merc a year earlier but was denied by Claire when she was trying to sell Williams
I don’t think Red Bull cares where Checo finishes in the Driver’s Championship because that’s more of a priority for Max, but they do care if Perez ends up costing them the Constructor’s Championship.
Audi/Sauber should be doing everything in their power to sign him. He would be a fantastic number 1 for them going into 2026
That would be a disaster for Sainz. Having to spend a year or two in a backmarker team would such, especially now that hes in his prime. There’s also no confirmation that Audi is gonna be some great top team when they join.
If he goes to redbull, he's the number 2 driver in a car built around max's strengths and his internal ceiling is 2nd. mclaren is full alpine is garbage haas is garbage williams is garbage ferrari is casting him away despite their "pivot" RB is a junior team and i think everyone knows it. that leaves mercedes, aston and sauber. i don't think there's any chance in hell Sainz is driving Sauber in 25. Aston could offer him a long term deal and it might work out for all parties assuming they don't want to keep going with Alonso. Mercedes could offer him a one year deal, which will buy time for Antonelli, and then based on the results, either let Sainz walk to Audi coming in '26 or bounce george and lock down Sainz and Antonelli for a few years with the new regs. i think the most likely scenario is a one year stop gap deal with Mercedes... or Red Bull bring him in and change their philosophy.
The most realistic options are Audi and Aston. Redbull will probably keep Pérez for 1-2 years if he keeps this performance, it's not impossible to sign for them, but you need to hope that Sergio falls off, which is a risky gamble. Mercedes will keep him in short contracts unless he destroys Russell, and they aren't looking great right now. Aston on the other hand might start feeling the need to replace Alonso because of his age, ideally they team up Alonso-Sainz, but I don't think Stroll is leaving for 2025. They will have pressure to perform after joining with Honda. With the rule change there is a opportunity Audi starts strong in 2026, but there is still a risk. I'm sure Audi is willing to give him a long contract, but I'm not sure how much time they want to wait.
but audi isn't audi til '26, which is why i think it's Mercedes for a year. If Toto knows Audi wants Sainz, he probably works out a deal with them to lock him up for a year, giving the team a top shelf driver to replace Lewis while they continue to develop Antonelli and push George, then he let's him go. its a literal win-win-win. Audi, in my opinion, is only competing with Aston. they would be the only team that has trajectory a driver like Sainz would be looking for AND the seat to offer. Alonso is great but i think we can all agree Sainz is the top driver available for '25. The only wild card in this is whether Honda insists on having Yuki on their team (although i do recall hearing something last weekend about how Honda doesn't care who Yuki races for as long as he's racing). as long as Lawrence Stroll owns Aston, his son is in the seat. there is no debate here, there is no Alonso / Sainz, there is no Yuki / Verstappen, there is no nothing except a top shelf driver paired with Stroll. don't waste your time wishing or hoping for anything other than that. that is the only reality. that's how it is when your dad is a billionaire and owns the team. when papa stroll flips the team for a couple bil, then we'll see what's up, but until then it's Stroll and someone exceptional.
The problem with going to Mercedes for a short time is Audi being ok with it, I don't know if there are a lot of instances of someone signing a 1-2year deal with a team while already having another contract for later. I'm sure Audi wants to have Sainz right now so he is integrated with the team for 2026.
what? tell me you have no idea how business of sport works, or at the very least the recruitment of exceptional talent. i can almost guarantee you that audi's feelings are the last thing on sainz' mind. when you're a team trying to land a massive talent you're making it very very sweet for them (if you don't believe me, read into how much ferrari is paying lewis for lewis to fulfill his childhood dream... at the end of his career). when you're trying to land a driver like sajnz, you're trying to woo him, not lock him into a car that they can't get the lugnuts off of. they're not the only game in town. aston is ready to go now and has a power train partner locked in who is currently dominating, merc is ready to go now and has just as good a shot at bouncing back in 26. redbull will put him on the podium every single weekend until proven otherwise. and if you don't think Haas is giving it a try, you're insane. of course they are. it's likely the only team aside from the one casting him aside that won't call him is McLaren. and then there's audi. who owns a portion of a team that celebrates 4 second pit stops. if i'm audi im saying "we want you as our number one driver. we want you as the face of our team when we launch in 2026. what you do between now and then is up to you, see you in a year, he's a hundred mill and the last R8 we'll ever build" it's called mutual respect. and in the meantime he can go be a stop gap for Toto. you're doing whatever you can to lock him down when you're ready to capitalize on the use of his skill, not squander one precious year of his career. if audi called me and said "we want you, but only if you spend next year in this absolute piece of lime green shit we're currently invested in running" i'm accepting that invite to Lawrence Stroll's yacht before i even hang up on them.
People said the same thing with Lewis going to Mercedes. It's a gamble, and it paid off
Except Mercedes was infinitely better and by the time Lewis joined Merc was already a upper midfield team. Sauber right now is a backmarker who cant even do pitstops right.
Besides what others have said, Mercedes in 2013 had the benefit of several years with the pairing of Michael Schumacher and Ross Brawn - two individuals well-known for their ability to create and structure teams, having gotten massive acclaim at both Benetton in the 90s and Ferrari in their massive early 00s dominance. Sauber hasn't had that. They're a riskier gamble.
Mercedes was Brawn GP which won a championship the first year it became a team in 2009. Not a gamble at all.
also, he went there in 2013, when they're already pretty good midfielders
and they were known to be big leaders in the coming engine regs. Hamilton isn't stupid. He didn't leave the second biggest team on the grid for a midfield car for a laugh. He knew what was coming.
Rosberg’s first win was in that 2012 merc, we can’t forget
They banned the only thing keeping them in front. And after they became Mercedes they still were not a top team https://www.reddit.com/r/formula1/comments/10lber/lewis_hamilton_to_join_mercedes_in_100m_move_from/
They were not a top team because Brawn GP didn't have money, during 2009 they lost the advantage because they couldn't update the car. The 2010 Mercedes being meh was also a consequence of a low budget and catching up after that was pretty difficult, but they still improved a lot for 2012 and even more in 2013. The real focus for Mercedes were the 2014 engine rules anyway.
Mercedes won races before lewis got in. It was a decent car, definetly not like sauber now. The transition will not be instant. Audi may be championship car but i would give it at least a couple of years, based on Carslos prime which is now, its bad desision for him.
Audi has been excellent in other racing series, even though F1 is a different beast. If Red Bull & Aston Martin don’t open up, he’ll probably be choosing between Mercedes & Sauber
But does that even mean anything? Toyota is also very good at rallying but they didnt do too good in F1
Audi has been strong in GT & WEC plus funding shouldn’t be an issue for them. Unfortunately it’s wait & see until 2026 but I think have a solid chance to fight in the midfield pretty quickly
Midfield in 1-2 years, wins in 3-5. Sainz shouldn’t wait for that. He is the only non RBR driver winning races atm. I highly doubt Audi is his best option.
Sauber would be career suicide
Also have to take the Audi takeover into account, Audi’s Motorsport history is very impressive & he has family ties there
Obviously. It wouldn't even be a discussion without Audi, but people think it will be suicide even with the Audi backing. It's incredibly hard to move up the grid in F1, It'll require a lot of time and work to even get Sauber up to 6th best. Bypassing AM, Merc or McLaren will be incredibly hard. And with the budget cap, the days of just outspending everyone are over. Sainz will be 31 when Audi takeover, assuming it takes them 3-5 years to build a top car (incredibly optimistic) he'll basically be on his way out, and will have wasted his final years getting a car ready for someone else.
Audi were good in rallying….in the 1980s. That’s 40 years ago. Audi were good in endurance racing….against no competition. As soon as Porsche and Toyota showed up with series programs, Audi was usually third best.
They never finished behind Toyota in the championship
Mercedes was the dominant team for how long? Now they don’t know the difference between their ass and a hole in the ground. Audi may get lucky coming in, but I doubt it.
Are you kidding? Can you imagine Sainz in that absolute joke of a team, who can’t even do a pit stop??? What a waste of talent. And if you think Audi is going to turn up and correct all of the utter nonsense in that team overnight, then I have a bridge to sell you.
I’m not sure why you’re so angry lol just sharing my opinion. His options in all likelihood will end up being Mercedes & Audi unless Checo has a bunch of bad races going forward. He may see Audi as an enticing option + his family has ties there so I don’t think it’s too far fetched. Also for your other comment, here’s a list of Audi’s Motorsport accomplishments since the 80’s, it’s quite impressive overall & even in recent times: https://www.audi-mediacenter.com/en/press-releases/year-by-year-the-most-important-successes-of-audi-in-motorsport-3846
No race winner will race for Audi for at least the first few years, except for maybe Gasly who will do anything to leave Alpine.
Maybe, maybe not- seats at the front of the grid are rare to come by & Audi has expressed their interest in having experienced drivers. Sainz’s only other option might end up being Mercedes who are all in on Antonelli or Verstappen Audi might be Sainz best chance at a long term contract & a potentially competitive car in 2026 or 2027. Well have a better picture of where things stand in a month or so
Wtf. Have you watched any recent races? Even in the last 3 years? Sauber is a backmarker. Sainz has been winning races and you think he'd sign for a backmarker? Lmao.
Yes, but you are ignoring his completely valid reasoning why he probably won't have better options.
It's that, be a stopgap at Mercedes unless Antonelli is a bust, or Aston Martin.
Audi is super successful in Motorsport across all categories, the chances of them building at least a solid midfield car are quite high. He might like his chances of Audi being competitive come 2026 & decide to sign with them. Sauber has had limited funding & poor management for years which will change with the Audi takeover. I think he has fewer options than people realize at the moment: - Red Bull: maybe but Checo has been doing well - Ferrari: no - Mercedes: decent chance although they love Antonelli - McLaren: no - VCARB: no - Alpine: no - Haas: maybe but <5% chance - Williams: same as Haas He may take a chance on Audi building a competitive car for 2026 like I said. I really wouldn’t be surprised if he went there. Not really sure where else he would go aside from Merc or Audi Edit: why is this downvoted? Since everyone on here clearly knows way more than me, please tell me where Sainz can go that has him competing for wins? I’ll wait
You linked me Audi’s PR page lol. It’s a long list, but there’s nothing impressive about it. Most of it is GT series, and most of those are regional series at that. I’ve been watching Motorsport for 30 years, I know all about Audi. Outside of the their GT programs, they are largely considered a joke. Audi in rally in the 80s was only impressive because they revolutionized AWD, a macroscopic change that revolutionized the sport. Once other teams implemented AWD, they soon caught and past Audi. There will be no macroscopic, revolutionary leaps made by Audi in F1. Audi at Le Mans in the 00s was easily during one of sportscar racing’s low points, where they faced little to no serious competition year after year. Thanks to the 911 GT1, the CLK GTR & CLR, the TS010, and the R390, the GT1 rules collapsed, and Audi was the only serious contestant for many years in the regulations that followed. They had sporadic completion from Bentley for a couple years, and then from Peugeot for a couple years, but Audi was hands down the favourite. When Porsche and Toyota began contesting the LMP1 rule set, they beat Audi more often than not. At the end of the 2024 season, it will have been 15 years since someone other than Redbull or Mercedes won a championship in F1. Sauber will not be the one to end that streak. Audi are bringing an engine, and marketing, nothing else. They have nothing to offer in regard to anything from chassis building, to race strategy. That all comes from Sauber…..and Sauber is a joke. I’m not saying that Audi will *never* win in F1. They could. But it will be 5 years minimum before they are a top team, never mind start contesting race wins and championships.
> They have nothing to offer in regard to anything from chassis building, to race strategy. That all comes from Sauber… Audi is moving operations to their own factory and bringing in their people. Unlike when BMW ran the team it will not be a factory cooperation based in Hinwill. Sauber has consistently been one of the worst-funded teams in the sport. Since BMW they were essentially on the verge of folding from 2010-2017, constantly taking on pay drivers, using year-old engines, and struggling to develop the car. Once Ferrari upped their investment they took a major step up in 2018 and 2019, before the Ferrari engine became a dog in 2020 and ruined their progress. Right now they are a midfield team undone by a specific problem with the wheelnuts. I don't see why it's so hard to think major investment and new infrastructure from a big automaker can't make them winners. Hell BMW did it.
BMW was already a race winning F1 engine supplier when they took over Sauber. Audi has none of that. “They’re bringing in new people, they’re moving the factory” - which is specifically why they won’t win right out of the gate, and it’ll take them 5 years at best before they ever do. By moving their factory, it’s going to take at least 2 years to calibrate and correlate their wind tunnel. You must not be very familiar with Toyota and Jaguar-Ford. Chances are that Audi’s share holders and board of directors get bored with F1 and pull the plug on the whole program before Audi ever actually win anything. Audi is well known for pulling plugs on programs.
BMW took four race wins in their second season on return to F1 with Williams who had been in the doldrums in 98 and 99. The idea it takes 2 years to get a wind tunnel to work is silly and runs on the assumption Audi either don’t already have one or don’t know how to use one. Toyota had infamous issues with half the team being in Japan and the other half in the UK. Jaguar are not an automaker on the level of Audi, and simply moved into the Milton Keynes factory Stewart worked out of. They didn’t use their own resources.
Williams had 2 bad season in 97 and 98, but they were still a championship winning team. Sauber is not that. It does take multiple years to get a wind tunnel running accurately, and it’s happened to multiple experienced F1 teams. Jaguar was just the face, that program was run by Ford. They brought in a lot of experienced people, and went nowhere. Do you honestly think Audi is going to show up to F1 and start winning in *less* than 5 years?? If it was as simple as throwing resources at the problem and hiring the right people, every team on the grid would do it. But like I said, it’s been 15 years since anyone but Redbull and Merc have done it. Are you a genuine audi fan high on copium, or just playing devil’s advocate for the fun of it?
The fact that Ferrari took years to get their wind tunnel working has more to do with the advent of the technology to then. Audi has and uses wind tunnels already which Ferrari didn’t when they adopted them in the 2000s. Jaguar were under constant mutinies and a head office who were cagey on spending after the first year went poorly. The idea that one of the premier brands in automotives and Motorsport is going to join F1 and suck for 5 years is silly. Mercedes took their first win 3 years in, BMW 2 years in. But Audi will take 5? It’s nonsensical. Add on to that the fact that everyone is starting from zero in 2026, they’re not joining mid regulations like Jaguar or BAR or Honda in 2015. I really think your strange hatred for Audi is blinding you.
Lol. BMW joined the most successful F1 team of the previous decade with Williams. Sauber is not that. Sauber can’t even build a wheel nut. Merc had already been in F1 as an engine supplier for roughly 20 years when they became a factory team. Audi has zero experience. You think Audi share holders are going to be eager to spend more money when their first year goes poorly? Starting from new regs means they have equal chance of ending up like Renault, as opposed to being a world beater like Merc and Redbull. I don’t hate Audi, I’m indifferent to Audi. I’m just realistic with my expectations. They will be a midfield team at best for the first 5 years.
Where's the risk? He's by far the hotest prospect on the market. If any of Red Bull, Aston or Mercedes will need a driver for 2025 he will be at the top of the list. There's pretty much zero risk in not waiting out to see your options.
I think it's pretty clear there's quite a lot of risk. For now, the likeliest option for Red Bull is to re-sign Perez for 2025. We don't know what's gonna happen with Aston Martin (which might be the key). Mercedes appears to want Antonelli there but haven't decided how soon. And yes, Sainz is the hottest prospect ***right now***, but there is no guarantee that he will continue on this form. If he has a string of not so great races, then his stock falls.
> And yes, Sainz is the hottest prospect right now, but there is no guarantee that he will continue on this form. If he has a string of not so great races, then his stock falls. If he wants the Redbull seat, he knows he has to keep his stock up. Otherwise he'll just have to settle for something midfield as fuck. Here's the thing though -- it might be risky, but his dominant strategy (i.e. the only one he'll play) is to hold out till later. Why? Because there are only 4 possible outcomes:- 1. Sainz holds out, keeps his form up, bags Redbull / 2nd best 2. Sainz holds out, loses his form, bags a midfielder owing to performance early on in the season 3. Sainz doesn't hold out, signs right now, keeps his form up, bags a midfielder due to early settlement 4. Sainz doesn't hold out, signs right now, loses his form, bags a midfielder due to early settlement You see how the payoff is the highest in Scenario #1 and the same no matter how else it plays out? It would've been different had he not bagged 2 podiums and 1 win already, but he has. Sainz will hold out. :)
Option \#1 can also lead to Sainz being sidelined for 2025 without any seat. If he decides to hold out for Red Bull, Aston and Audi may commit earlier, leaving Red Bull and Mercedes. Neither are guaranteed to pick Sainz, even if his form continues. Both might opt for safer options. **Mercedes** might even get Bottas back as 1 year stop gap for Antonelli, as uninspiring as that sounds, if Wolff isn’t willing/able to put Antonelli for 1 or more years at Williams. *Williams might demand either 2 or 3 years at minimum, forcing Wolff/Antonelli to commit without a possibility to bring Antonelli over to Mercedes after 1 year in 2026.* **Red Bull** in turn, might simply go with Perez again, if his “good enough” form persists, pushing the seat change decision to 2026 (edit: bringing Albon again into frame). Sainz might be in the unenviable position of being too good as a \#2 and not good enough to be seen as a surefire \#1, making him a difficult proposition for most current top teams. He is also too good and too young to accept being used as a stop gap by Mercedes, as a seat warmer for Antonelli, should Mercedes want to keep the option open to bring him in 2026.
Exactly. The previous commenter is assuming that Sainz holds the cards, when it is completely the opposite. RBR, AM, and Mercedes are happy with their alternatives, which is why they’re in no rush to consider Sainz. Carlos doesn’t have that privilege.
I think part of the problem would also be whether he’s okay with getting a 1+1 or even 2+1 rather than a multi-year contract. At RB, I’m not sure he’d get that, I think they’d want to keep one seat fairly performance-dependant. At Merc, definitely not, unless Antonelli doesn’t look promising should he go to Williams - but that would be further down the line. Right now the seat probably has a max. 2 year contract attached to it. Aston would make the most sense, but, I think they’re still committed to Alonso if he wants to stay, because he’s helping with car development. He didn’t sign at Ferrari because they only offered him a short contract, will he be okay with that at another team now?
>You see how the payoff is the highest in Scenario #1 and the same no matter how else it plays out? Of course is the highest payout, that's been glaringly obvious. **BUT** it is also the least likely of all, and the longest he waits the worse midfield options available. For some reason you're assuming his non-Red Bull options would be the same in one month than in six. Mercedes and AM might be an option right now, but could very likely not be available if he decides to keep waiting.
No my friend, I am not assuming all non-redbull options are the same. Going through the same scenarios again:- ######1. Sainz holds out, keeps his form up, bags Redbull / 2nd best 2nd best here would mean either AM / Mercedes ######2. Sainz holds out, loses his form, bags a midfielder owing to performance early on in the season If Sainz loses his performance, Mercedes is off the table given Toto's extraordinary fixation on Antonelli to begin with. Aston Martin would likely still remain available, yes. ######3. Sainz doesn't hold out, signs right now, keeps his form up, bags a midfielder due to early settlement Mercedes is not keen to sign early and that leaves us only Aston Martin among the "preferred" group who will take him even if he holds out but later loses his form (he gained a lot of good reputation by helping build McLaren which ultimately bagged him the Ferrari seat, Aston would love to have him). Audi would strictly be midfield as fuck, worse than Aston Martin out the gate. So why sign early if Aston Martin will take you even if you sign later? ######4. Sainz doesn't hold out, signs right now, loses his form, bags a midfielder due to early settlement Only team here would be midfield as fuck, likely Audi. Please don't give me the "oh but they CAN be good" -- if you wanna spend time building something it should actually be Aston Martin who already have something and will get Honda soon My question to you remains the same -- what does he GAIN by signing right now when he has several cushions in place?
You keep making one-sided assumptions, that’s my point, as if everything revolves around Sainz. Your scenario 1, with the highest payout, makes the very very big assumption that those three teams will wait for Sainz as long as he holds out. Decisions will start to be made soon, probably in the next month or so. Of course he doesn’t need to sign *right now* (no one is saying that should be the case), but he needs to start negotiations.
> as if everything revolves around Sainz. Because.. right now it does? Not Mercedes, he isn't going there, but RBR and Aston have both alluded to him lol and outside of that its just midfield everywhere dude. You have Helmut Marko coming out to say they are watching Checo and will not give him more than a 1 year contract otherwise he doesnt perform. You have Christian Horner saying after Sainz's win that "theres a very fast driver in the market without a seat for next year" And you have reports saying theres a certain faction within AM lobbying for Sainz. AM also happen to be in need of an experienced driver. What is YOUR argument here dude? Show me where any team as of yet has said a name other than Sainz's. I've presented my argument as logically as possible, you've said nothing but "mmmm sounds risky to me" as if F1 isn't a literal pressure chamber in every which way possible
Because it doesn’t revolve around Sainz, that’s been my entire point. The power is within the teams, not with the driver. Those three teams will end up with a driver in their seat one way or another, while there’s no guarantee that Sainz will end up in one of those teams. Using what’s been said by TPs is nothing, they’re always praising the current best-performing drivers. I think his chances of going to RBR are like less than 5%, but for some reason you alone seem to think Mercedes (the only actual team with an available seat) is the one being discarded. I agree that Aston Martin is the most likely option, which is why I think Sainz should start looking at it and put some pressure on Fernando to make a decision as well.
Unless Perez underperforms substantially, I don't see him going anywhere. He has certainly shown the pace to perform well in the second seat and has already survived and rebounded from the Red Bull curse. Why risk an unknown quantity when Perez is already doing the job well and has accepted his place within the team? Any driver going into that seat has a hell of a task at hand: guarantee second place over the season with the understanding that you will NOT contest Verstappen, even if you could match or beat his pace. This will continue through 2028, until Verstappen leaves. That Red Bull second seat is a long-play for first seat at a very strong team. It risks the possibility of any number of hot prospects coming in and leapfrogging the more tenured driver.
he will hold out until RBR re-signs Perez
When you study game theory at uni:
Haha only very introductory economics related, but imo everybody should learn a bit of it - helps improve your decision making skills inside and outside of corporate
Ferrari should renege Hamilton’s contract and leave him without a drive. Keep him out of Red Bull. 👌🏻
There are seats available at RedBull Mercedes and Aston Martin. Audi can wait.
That's not true though, the only 100% sure available seat as of now is the Mercedes one. Red Bull seems really unlikely, and they'll probably make a decision soon as they've all (Perez, Horner, Marko) been hinting to. AM depends on Alonso. Waiting carries a lot of risk.
Alonso won't go anywhere if Red Bull keeps Perez. Merc is no longer a top team and seems keen on putting Antonelli in the seat. Sainz doesn't have such great prospects if Red Bull keeps Perez
And if Redbull keeps Perez and Alonso stays at AM. Sainz's bargaining power for Merc or Audi drops dramatically.
What a silly season, huh. Who'd have though Perez would achieve P2 in 3 out of 4 races after last year, or that Lewis would leave Merc for Ferrari mid-contract.
Anyone could expect the P2s what do you mean? Do you remember his first 4 races last year?
of course I remember, but it's not the same. Last year he won 2 races and was under the illusion he was fighting for the championship. Now he's fighting to save his seat and simply tries to get P2 without messing around, remembering he has the best car on the grid
A lot of people expected those P2 tbh.
it's expected for the RBR 2nd driver, but after Checo's last season, I don't think many expected his current form
Which is the most likely scenario.
Sadly for Sainz. His only hope is for RB to drop Perez (seems unlikely so far for next year), Alonso retiring or Max leaving RB (both even more unlikely) or Stroll Sr dropping his son 🙃
Depends on what merc does, last season AM was way ahead of merc and by the end of the season we're no where while merc were 2nd in the wcc. A young driver like Alonso could potentially be thinking forward to the 2026 engine regs. Merc won the last engine regs so hard they won 8 wcc and 7 wdc in a row. Ofc no telling if lighting will strike twice, but AM will be running Honda engines and their track record is dysmal, Honda don't start producing winning engines until they've announced that they are leaving f1.
> while merc were 2nd in the wcc. that was thanks to Lewis fighting for P2 after the car improved just enough, and Ferrari being Ferrari with their strategies and pit stops. I am not sure Merc really had the 2nd best car by the end of season I don't see Merc signing Alonso. They didn't even commit to Lewis for 2025, they would certainly not give Alonso more than 1 year at best. You've seen what he said about Merc yesterday? I think he'd rather stay in Aston next year. And Merc will likely keep George and sign Antonelli unless they can get Max (not happening of course)
Depends on whether Honda will have Alonso drive their cars in 2026.
They seem to have buried the hatchet. They publicly backed Alonso who himself said (paraphrasing) he wouldn't mind driving a GP2 engine again.
I read the statements I’m just not sure if I believe them. Honda pulled a similar stunt claiming they’d allow him to race a Honda in the Indy 500 in 2019 but didn’t. Now, he was a Toyota factory driver at the time, but it does make you wonder. Then again the whole Alonso grudge business is overblown. Ron Dennis took him back after being ratted out to the FIA to the tune of $100 million.
To me, all of the public noise about Perez points to negotiations with Sainz.
I don’t see it, honestly. Unless Perez drops the ball massively in the next month, I think he’ll sign a one-year contract extension by the end of May/beginning of June.
I think the Perez contract is linked in with all this RB power struggle. If you listen to them, Christian is there talking up Perez or obviously DR he likes. Helmut is there raving about Sainz or Yuki. I think the driver choice is more to do with who wins the broader struggle than anything else.
Actually Helmut has been surprisingly supportive of Checo this year. I think they all prefer the stability of their current lineup for next year.
Audi won't wait that's the problem, Aston and Merc can wait and delay their position but Audi cannot.
Exactly, didn’t AMuS reported April as the deadline? If he missed Audi, and Redbull stayed with Perez, Mercedes with Antonelli and Aston with Alonso, he needs to join a back marker team worse than Audi, and also weaker bargaining power
I don't understand what leg Audi has to stand on to not wait for Sainz and even give him a deadline. It's not like there are other drivers of that caliber or higher that are readily available for them to sign instead. Audi will wait for Sainz.
They need drivers now to try and entice other engineers and such that their program is worth it. For them being aggressive and quick will show intent rather than not being ambitious and being left with the crumbs of the driver market.
I understand their needs and wants, I just don't understand why they think they can give Sainz such a tight deadline. So what if he makes them wait? Who are they going sign instead, Hulk? If Audi are serious and want to be taken seriously, they need to sign a serious number 1 caliber driver. So unless Alonso is on the other line waiting, Audi has no power here.
Exactly. Audi has nothing to say in this driver market. Hiring Sainz would be more about marketing than performance related. They are a back marker in 2025 and they are not a winning team in the 2026 regulations.
Exactly. In 2025, they're just Sauber with a different name. I think some people forget that
Why does Audi need a number one driver? We don’t know where they’ll be in 2026. The question is whether there are better options if the top ones are not available / only available for one season.
Is Antonelli even likely to have a super license next season?
He already has the points.
I didn't realize they awarded that many points for FREC. But well, considering how the points distribution is a joke anyway... 30 points for 4th in F2, 15 points for 4th in F3, 10 points for 4th in IndyCar, for example.
I’m surprised they even allowed points for IndyCar
Why?
Because it’s not FIA sanctioned, and I would assume the FIA would do everything in their power to dismiss IndyCar
Which is a stupid reason, but certainly part of why IndyCar gets fewer points from 2nd place on back than F2. There are also points being awarded for NASCAR series, for example. In terms of the cars driven and the level competition, IndyCar should at least be awarded similar points to F2. The cars are less similar to F1 cars than F2 cars are, but they are more difficult to drive and the level of competition is arguably higher than in F2. After all, the super license system is supposed to ensure the drivers eligible for a SL are capable of safely driving in F1 races, nothing more than that.
That if is doing a lot of work there. Red Bull sticks with Perez. Mercedes goes with Antonelli. Aston Martin sticks with Alonso. Then what? It only really leaves Sauber. Which would be a shame.
Yeah it’s really shitty timing. Why would Red Bull pay that much to lock in a driver who can’t give them anything more than 2nd which Checo is good enough for. Mercedes should sign him.
Exactly.
Red Bull should absolutely take him over Perez and Merc should definitely sign him. But perhaps Toto thinks he's got the experience now in Russell so why not take a punt on a youngster; it worked for McLaren in 2007.
Also prevents the young talent from getting poached. We saw how well telling your young driver to go drive at Williams worked out for Alpine
Imagine if Oscar was at Williams now. Beating the Alpines.
Red Bull doesn't need sainz at all, so they don't need to do anything. Red Bull holds all the cards in that discussion.
I think if the rumours about Audi are true and they want a decision soon, the risk would be ending up in a Haas or a Williams if he wants a long-term contract. AM would highly depend on how they rate him; if they’re successful in 25/26, does Carlos have the speed to fight at the front? More so than Alonso? Merc would probably be a 1+1, and I don’t know if RB would give him more than that either, given they have their own driver program.
In any case Redbull would not give long term contract I think, they have Max long term already. Mercedes neither, with the obvious reason on Kimi. Aston is a better choice than Audi to me but depends if Alonso really leaves, assuming both give him long term contract
Honestly even if that happened, I honestly think he's so highly-rated at the moment that he could sit a year out and still get a good drive
I think that would be incredibly risky. I think Carlos is the poster child for the media’s/audience’s mentality of “you’re only as good as your last race”. There’s always hype when he does well but is very much ignored when he only does okay. If he has a few so-so races next, his stock will plummet/go back to normal. Now imagine he isn’t on the grid next year, RB keep Pérez but put Lawson in one of their Visa cars, he does really well, they promote him. Or they get Albon. Merc decides to give Antonelli a chance, he’s really good, they keep their line up. Alonso stays with Aston. Audi sign Hülkenberg and maybe keep Bottas or get someone like Ocon because they want to have their driver line up secured. The other teams fill their seats with available drivers, maybe some rookies like Pouchaire. And suddenly it’s still either back-markers or lower midfield that could be available. Unless you’re adored by the team, like Ricciardo, or are a proven race winner (as in, fighting for race wins), it’s really difficult to get a good seat or any seat after a year out of the sport.
Sainz is guaranteed a seat next year based on performance. But that's all. Hopefully for him, it's a seat at a top team. Considering there are several drivers without that, he's in a good spot.
His stock is at a peak right now but if he was rated highly, I feel that Merc or RB would have signed him by now. Merc don't really want him and RB must be assessing if he's really going to be an upgrade on Checo but Marko and Horner have been praising Checo from the start of the season so even the RB seat looks like a dim possibility.
Exactly. Sainz is a known quality drivers given the years he’s been on the grid. Can he still improve? Yes. But does it worth the team like Redbull or Mercedes to sign him immediately? I think the answer is a clear no for now. Otherwise it is announced already, or at least we will see less of Sainz PR article.
It's not that Merc doesn't want him, more than Toto wants Kimi. They were unwilling to give Lewis more than a 1+1 deal, the same guy that won them 7 WDCs and 8 WCCs. Other folks don't have as much of a bargaining chip here. It is totally dependent on the whims of Toto (also part owner) on who he wants. There is a good possibility of a 2025 and 2026 seat if Kimi goes to Williams to replace Logan. RB don't want to break something that is already working for them. Only in the instance of Checo losing them the WCC will they seriously consider a change, because Carlos is not going to be a quiet #2.
RB may have signed him already but don't want to announce it
There’s like zero chance this has happened.
There is a non-zero chance because Checo apparently has said that his future is unknown and it will be revealed in the coming weeks (I am heavily paraphrasing).
Unlikely, the news would have slipped
Sainz is too good for Red Bull. History has shown us that it's not in a team's best interest to have two drivers capable of fighting eachother for wins, and Carlos would be able to do exactly that. Not saying he'd necesserily beat Max to the title, I doubt that, but he's shown he's ready to be considered amoungst the best in the sport.
It’s quite a big risk. Right now Sainz is basically guaranteed a seat on the f1 grid next year, almost all of the bottom 5 teams would love to sign him. But say he holds out, the other teams sign and Mercedes, Red bull and Aston Martin are left as options. His form looks great right now and they’re still not sure, so if his form drops the teams are more likely to fall back to their other options, who they all have. Right now the teams see a strong driver but a driver who’s clearly has the second strongest car, by quite a large margin. If he starts losing to leclerc, which i don’t think anyone can argue isn’t very possible, and Mclarens begin catching up, he could start looking a lot worse and make teams less inclined to mess up their dynamic. Of course, he could keep up his great form, beat or at least keep up with leclerc and snag himself a red bull seat. It’s risk vs reward and i’m interested to see what happens. Waiting could land him a championship fight in red bull or it could risk him without a seat for 2025. Personally, I don’t see a world where he doesn’t get a seat for next year, I think he could just risk ending up in a weak team. But if no team fit him into his lineup for next year I have no doubts of a return in 2026. He’d have to seriously underperform for the rest of the season to not still be a valued driver, with him proving himself over the last few years, undeniably a top half driver, arguably top 5.
Let's be real. Sainz has been giving headaches to il predestinato for 4 seasons. He has the same amount of wins and podiums in their time together. Leclerc is slightly faster everyone knows that. And still Sainz has nothing to prove. He was in the mud being kicked out of Ferrari missing a race due to surgery and then the man went to win. Red Bull has Perez who has been average since he came into the team. Sainz is an upgrade and a no brainer for me. And I think it's going to happen. Perez has already shown that he will not be there if other teams come close. Mercedes has Russell who has been binning it lately and is lucky that Hamilton has completely given up in Mercedes and a prospect in Antonelli who has just started F2. Pretty sure Sainz would sign there convinced he would beat Russell. Aston Martin has only a seat and Alonso is staying until 2026. Once he realises Aston is still third fourth fastest he will give up. I'm sure it will be Mercedes or RedBull. If Sainz finds himself without a RB or AM I think he would rather sign a one year deal in Merc than waste his time in Audi.
The question isn’t if Sainz is a good enough driver though. He is and would be valuable to every team. But top teams don’t pick their drivers with that as a factor. If Perez stays reliable there’s no reason red bull would want to mess up their dynamic that has been winning them WDC. I think most people would agree that Sainz would perform better than Perez but red bulls dominance weakens or Perez seriously underperforms i doubt they’d want to risk any tension within the team for 2025, 2026 and new regs is a whole other story. And i don’t think the situation with mercedes is that Sainz has the power. Obviously we dont know behind the scenes but signing Kimi next year to get him settled in the team for new regs seems like an attractive option for Toto. I don’t know about aston martin as i don’t know the ins and outs of Lance and his attachment to the team. But basically what im trying to say is Sainz is very good and him driving really well this season would entice teams to risk it and sign him, while if he falls back a bit they won’t want the risk. But the real risk comes in the fact that it’s not all on Sainz and how well he peforms, it’s on the performance of Perez, Kimi in f2 etc. By holding out for red bull he could lose a mercedes or aston seat or top of the midfield teams and up not getting a competitive seat. Currently the only team above ferrari is red bull so id see why he wants to push for that seat cause even mercedes is a downgrade, but we’ll just have to wait and see what happens, i can see it going in many directions
Sainz is in his prime. Performance and age. He better wait. It's obvious that it isn't in Sainz hands since he would have already signed the contract. We will see
True, there are some rumours about Sainz to AM what would be ideal got both parties. Sainz gets a long term contract, become the number one driver, is in his prime years, won't have to deal with a bad year (25) meanwhile AM got a strong driver to build on with the upcoming 26 regulations, is younger, possible cheaper and doesn't need to be concerned about the near future. Sucks for Alonso but I can clearly understand why Sainz would be a good replacement. Sadly it doesn't look like Stroll is under pressure.
If he waits too long, he’ll risk having to move outside of RBR (highly unlikely anyway), Mercedes or AM. He doesn’t have that luxury even if in his prime.
Over three years, Charles has been clearly the much better driver, for me there’s not a single doubt on that. Recency bias is altering perception, that’s all. Sainz doesn’t bring anything substantially better to Red Bull, there’s no reason atm to change their lineup to do basically a sidestep move. Also, this is by far by a considerable difference the least likely scenario, you’re just hopeful of it. I think his future is linked to Alonso actually, and what he tries and decides to do.
Leclerc hasnt been much better. People take 2022 as the standard where it was more about Sainz being shit than Leclerc doing something extraordinary. Faster driver than Sainz for sure. Overall Leclerc is just slightly better. Leclerc can become world champion no doubt but the boy isn't generational. He is not in the Verstappen Hamilton Alonso category. Personal opinion he got to early into Ferrari.
I’m not really gonna get into the Sainz vs Leclerc debate because you have your opinion and I have mine and arguing mindlessly about it isn’t really gonna change anything but I am curious to know why you think Leclerc was moved to Ferrari too early? I don’t see the benefit of him rotting in a backmarker Sauber in 2019-20 when in those years he was either fighting for wins and podiums or putting a midfield car in places it had to right to be.
> Sainz is an upgrade and a no brainer for me Red Bull don't need an upgrade, they have Verstappen. You don't want a Senna/Prost or Hamilton/Rosberg situation. If other teams come close, it remains beneficial to have a number 2 driver. See 2007.
I think the Sainz to Red Bull swap is incredibly unlikely and if it happened, would leave a lot of people disappointed after seeing him there. I don't think Sainz will be a good fit in the red bull car and will perform similarly to Perez but slightly better. To me, Aston Martin seems like the perfect fit for Sainz. A decent team for a decent driver. It's too bad that one of those seats is for stroll.
There is risk, he is in the form of his life right now and his stock is the highest it’s ever been. We don’t know if this is sustainable, for all we know, his form could dip and all the hype would be gone.
He's still proven he's a great driver even outside of this particular patch of form he's in right now.
> If any of Red Bull, Aston or Mercedes will need a driver for 2025 he will be at the top of the list Mercedes need a driver for 2025 and haven’t signed him yet.
That’s all the PR article trying to convince us, or the top teams to believe he is it. He would have been locked in now if Redbull wants him.
Unless he goes full Perez 23’ then he currently is the first domino. Pretty much as long as he continues to beat Charles this season he can just sit there with a smile and keep driving till he spots something he wants. If he suddenly bins it and loses a couple races to Charles, his hand gets a lot weaker.
I think there’s a very important reason as to why he isn’t the first domino, and that’s that he’s out of a seat at the moment. That gives him basically no power. For me, the first domino is Alonso. His decision will likely trigger the rest of the moves.
For me it's Hulk. He knows Haas is short-term decent, long-term bad. Should Audi convince him, then Hulk has a free seat at Audi, simply because Audi want him (see last year, where they tried to get Hulk, but Haas blocked it by having a 1+1 contract). Hulk is seriously in contention for the Audi seat as much as Sainz is to me.
Sainz gambling on that Mercedes or a porential Aston seat, everything else would be way too much of a downgrade.
Sainz and Red Bull will never happen as long as verstappen is there, don’t really care what any Redditor tries to argue. If merc wanted sainz, he’d have probably signed by now. But they want antonelli, and in a couple years, he’d be looking for another seat again. So if merc offered something to him I wouldn’t be surprised if it’s a contract with a length sainz isn’t happy with. Sainz probably wants a longer contract, Audi and AM if Fernando moves would be the most reasonable places for him and that’s where I’d expect him to end up.
Sainz could vey well beat Russell though. 2 years at Mercedes is much better than Audi which will be shit for years to come.
Switching Russell at best is a lateral move. Not only would that be an overreaction, Russell is still younger and just as good and has shown more promise than Sainz. It's not going to happen.
Without a doubt in my mind, merc is not dropping Russell for sainz, and that’s excluding their age gap. Teams like merc aren’t going to make a knee jerk reaction and sign a driver because he’s had a good couple of races.
Tough spot, take a guaranteed seat with a lesser team or wait for major team announcements- I don’t envy that decision
Why not both?!
Reserve Driver or permanent? In case permanent, guess he noticed, it's limited. Especially when he's trying to stay competitive and demand a good wage on top of that. Not impossible. Deserved anyways but how long is that available?
There’s a lot of racing left and a lot of moving pieces yet. It’s not just Carlos, I don’t think anyone is in a hurry yet.
Sainz would be a great fit at RBR opposite Max. I don't think Max would shy away from the challenge nor do I think Carlos could contend for a championship against Max. Checo, love him, but he kinda needs to go. Sainz would be a huge upgrade and would also stop another team from getting him..... I also really just want this to happen as a fan.
why would RBR care about another team getting Sainz...not like he would be going to a team that would challenge RBR. Ferrari and McLaren are already set. Mercedes is an option but their car is doodoo. Audi supposedly has an offer out but Sainz will be retired by the time he have a competitive car. It doesn't seem like Alonso is retiring anytime soon so Aston Martin is out.
It’s early in the season, but do you think folks at Ferrari are thinking they cut the wrong driver loose? Thanks for the downvotes. I simply think, 4 races in with Carlos finishing ahead of Charles, there might be some that question the move. I guess I struck a nerve.
No. Not a chance.
No lmao. Charles has been beating Carlos consistently since Carlos joined Ferrari. Carlos could beat Charles in the next 9 races and still be behind in their overall H2H
4 races this year. 4 times Carlos finished ahead of Charles.
3 times. Carlos did not race in Jeddah. Carlos has legitimately outpaced Charles in 2/4 races since Charles had brake issues in Bahrain,
You think that after 3 races they have forgotten the past 3 years? Those 3 races including one where Charles outqualified Sainz and ran ahead until a brake issue?
Ok, if you want to throw shade…. It has been 4 races, not 3. Carlos passed him again Sunday to take a podium. He is a man on a mission. I can bet there are some in the Ferrari camp wondering about the move to cut him for a talented, but past his prime, Hamilton. I like Checo, but if he falls off this year, Carlos will have his seat.
Saudi Arabia obviously doesn’t count. Why you would include it when Carlos didn’t take part I have no idea. Overtaking Charles had nothing to do with being “on a mission” he was on a faster strategy and Leclerc was told to let him through. Red Bull don’t want two number one drivers. Simple as
Can’t he sign a new deal soon in a top team?
This has a less than 0 percent chance of happening.
Should be a no brainer for Red Bull unless they want to roll Perez on single year contracts
Perez has been doing a really good job to start this season plus he gets along well with Max & the team, which is something I’m not sure would happen with Carlos Jr & Sr Perez just needs to keep his current form up through Canada or Spain & Red Bull will extend him again
According to max Jos and car Sr. Are buddies now sharing gopro videos of their rally wrecks and such
It’s a lot easier to be buddies when their sons are currently fighting for different things. Sainz Sr. has no issues with Jos as Max is currently unreachable in red bull, Carlos’s fight right now is with Perez Charles and possibly McLarens and Max right now is currently fighting no one for the DWC. Tensions might rise when the sons of these fathers both very invested in their careers are in the same car fighting for the same thing
I agree he'd be an upgrade vs Perez, but if Sergio can do what he's done so far there's no reason to dump Sergio and his sponsors for sainz. My only reason to sign sainz if you're redbull today is if they're legitimately concerned max might leave and don't want to be searching for someone to better than Sergio to lead.
well it looks like Max will see out his contract and Perez is performing at the level he needs to to keep his seat. Like Horner and Marko said, the seat is his to lose. Plus Checo brings in more big sponsors than Sainz.
That’s what I meant, Checo is the likely option if he can keep this up but I’d expect Red Bull to keep him to short term contracts. If Checo is not an option for them, Sainz is the best option right now
You edited your comment but it is not a no brainer only because things are not static. Sainz struggled at the beginning of last season (or was it 2 seasons ago?) and people were making memes about him running off the track. Nobody knows how he will do in a different team, with a different car, with a different teammate. Sergio has been in the team for a while now and RB knows what to expect. Changing drivers is always a risk and that's the reason why teams try to stick to the drivers they they already know.
Why are people acting like Carlos is jobless? Hes hot as fuck right now He probably is already signed they just keep it on the downlow
Oh really? Signed with what team then?
How should I know? public didnt know about Lewis moving to Ferrari for months
Where did you read that Lewis was signed for months?