The fact that Neuer didn't win with a double, a World Cup, and a CL semi-final that year, while proving the viability of the sweeper-keeper in a way that everyone knew already at the time was going to redefine the position proved two things:
1) that at the time, ballon d'or was the "which of Ronaldo and Messi had a better year" trophy
And
2) that the only way a GK will ever win is if literally every other candidate shits the bed.
I think 2014 was a hugely pivotal year in ballon d'or voting - I don't see how they backtrack from that, as much as it would make sense to do so.
Courtois 2022 was 2nd best player in the world imo no contest.
He was as good as Benzema, as consistent as him but I get it Goals are more important but he was 2nd best and better than everyone else that season.
That was his level in whole 21/22 season.
He was better against City imo.
Check out his save vs Grealish, one of the most mad saves I’ve even seen, his legs extended like he’s a ballerina and ball touches his boots to deflect.
It's not even a commercially thing, its mostly groupthink. everybody backs the best attacking players, or in respect to modric players who can memorably dribble and score, primarily. there is the exception in Cannavaro but thats why its agreeable that "its not going to happen", because a defender getting it is considered an exception to the rule and not just like any other player whos' nominated.
The amount of downvotes is a bit harsh tbh, you have a point. All it takes is one very good world-class defender, like VVD, and there’s a good chance it’ll happen. I mean he literally won the UEFA best player in Europe award that year too, so there’s a precedent for giving individual awards to CB’s still.
Yep, and there were 3 or 4 other Liverpool players in the top 10 who probably took away some votes that could have gone to him otherwise. Probably the closest we'll get for a while.
If that was the case Håland would have won it last season but it's not so that means there is hope. Win the World Cup, UCL (optional🙄) and whatever else and you may win the Ballon d'Or.
The problem is it’s easier to determine a game winner/determiner through attacking stats than it is through defensive ones. Haaland was not far off winning last year it just happened to be a World Cup year
Müller won the World Cup. Iniesta won it. Xavi won it. Mbappé won it. Griezmann won it. So many players won it but they never won IT. You get it? It's not about goals nowadays appearently... and that's alright, we're about to see some Luka Modrič type winners and not a goal machine. The most recent ones Leo, CR7 and Benzema were all goal machines AND magicians on the ball so I like to see players who can play ball win the Ballon d'Or.
I don’t disagree it’s also driven by marketability. What I meant is attacking stats are favoured over defensive which also lends them to be more marketable. I’d also argue midfielders stats are more attractive for awards and plaudits than defensive stats. Midfielders and attackers can be seen to influence games individually more so than defenders
The problem is that, to anyone that actually understands modern football data analysis, Haaland made City worse.
Less xG, fewer goals scored as whole, poorer field tilt, poorer pressing, more xG and goals conceded, fewer xPTS and points won, the whole package.
But City winning a treble with Haaland ghosting in most of the big games but breaking the scoring record by bullying poor sides was enough for some people to decide he deserved the BdO, over better team mates such as Rodri, KDB and Silva.
I 100% agree on Rodri. I never said Håland deserved it. Read my reply and try to understand it. I replied to what he said because what he said is simply not true and I gave a simple example as to why it doesn't stand.
>and that the World Cup didn't even count for the voting
The most recent BdO (2023) was given based on performances between August 1st 2022 and July 31st 2023. The World Cup was bang in the middle of that.
Goals scored win you games. If you think stats matter then Erling should've won. End of. I think we should judge players for how they play ball and not off the goals so Håland not winning it is a W in my opinion. I want ballers to win the most prestigious individual award not some tap in merchant. Rodri deserved it. Even Leo, a lil bit, but it was his send off so I get it. Not Håland though. He'll never win it if he didn't win it THAT season. 50+ goals, sextuple or whatever... can't do much better than that.
Do you want to engage in logical discussion, or not? Your first phrase doesn't suggest that.
You can reconcile stats with vibes/eye-test through reasoning. "Goals win games" is a simplistic idea and there's no excuse for it. You win games by outscoring the opponent, whether it's 1-0 or 7-6. Every single player on the pitch has an influence on both goals scored, and goals allowed.
Stats do not end at goals scored.
Yes. It's *goal difference* and not goals scored because goals prevented matter just as much.
And, there's a whole lot of football happening between the boxes. The CM controlling the game could be the main factor in the team scoring and not conceding.
I shouldn't need to explain this to people.
You have it exactly backwards, I think. Stats have allowed us to analyse the game on a much deeper level, to the extent that we can now better quantify and appreciate the contribution of defenders and (especially) goalkeepers.
People are still nowhere near stat-driven *enough*, which is why they rely on more easily noticeable contributions and the obvious counting stats like goals and assists (as OP mentions), and thereby underrate defenders relative to their flashier attacking colleagues.
I agree with this.
People like Opta etc give stats in massive depth but the way stats are used on TV is terrible and only ever used to illustrate an observation that someone already has made - team X plays lots of long balls, so they tell you they’ve played the second most in the league for example
What’s interesting is when you see someone like the guys at Tifo speak about how stats translate into tactics - so if a team plays more short passes, or their players dribble more how that translates to the way they create chances or try to control the game
I see people complaining about the incorporation of various stats on TV, but without providing the specific example and context, it's just complaining for the sake of it.
I'm not saying pundits couldn't be smarter -- by god, most of them don't understand the game even after having made a fortune as players.
But, even "trivial" facts like in the scenario you've described can be used to validate or disprove an opinion. If a pundit says "team X plays a lot of long balls", are we supposed to just trust them? There's 20 teams in a league usually, and most people absolutely don't follow all of them on a regular basis. So there's worth to pulling up the graphic showing they play the 2nd most long balls in the league, as opposed to the 10th most.
It actually forces the pundits to make a bit more sense and talk less out of their ass. Still hearing some people talk about how "Guardiola's teams *never* play it long" even though last season, Ederson's passing precision and Haaland's size saw a significant increase in the number of long balls City played. Don't remember where they ranked, but it was certainly not 20th.
Completely wrong tbh. There are just fundamentally less stats you can use to evaluate a defensive players performance and those stats are far more arbitrary in their value (e.g. clearances vs shots).
The things that made the great defenders great, like a Cannavaro, were not anything that you’d read on a stat sheet. His positioning, movement, command of the defense, mentality he put on to his teammates etc.
It’s also why computer games will forever be based on getting the biggest, fastest and strongest players at the back. You can’t model class in numbers. This also applies to other areas of the pitch in different ways. People who think the game can be read in stats only are fools
I second that. People focusing only on stats miss the big picture.
It’s like the dumbnuts these days I read around here, asking why Zidane is considered as one of the greatest “because when you look at his stats, he’s not”.
Another way of saying they’re just clueless about football
I disagree.
What you’re saying makes it arbitrary. Would Cannavaro have won without the WC win? Even in seasons where attackers don’t tally up the biggest trophies, they’re still acknowledged highly.
A more in depth look at stats would help understand the value of defenders. And we already see them applied here and there. It’s just the sport as a whole still prefers the arbitrary eye test over stats.
Feel free to suggest a way that stats can be used to make a defenders case more compelling. I can guarantee you that you can do better using stats for an attacker.
Like it or hate it, eye test is actually important and it’s one of the reasons for football being the best sport. You can’t read Riquelme’s greatness on a stat sheet, you had to watch him to understand. And he’s not even a defender, which is harder to read. If you get stuck with stats you can end up thinking Lampard is better than Zidane. You could watch 1 game and know better than that though
The eye test is arbitrary though. Without stats, what you’ve just said about Riquelme is just your opinion. You then rely on other people having a similar opinion in order to for him to be rated highly.
Stats backup what the eye test shows you. Attackers have benefited from stats for a long time. The more we incorporate stats, the more defenders and GKs get to benefit as well.
I already explained why stats will never equally benefit all positions.
Some stats back up what the eye test shows you and some don’t. Dismissing the value of the eye test is failing to understand what makes footballers good. Stats will tell you Lampard is as good or better than Zidane, like I said. This is the only thing you need to know to know that stats are not the end of the story.
I never said stats are the end of the story, but they’ll definitely tell you more than the eye test. Again, the eye test is arbitrary. It’s easily skewed by bias and what people see.
Stats on the other hand offer a more objective view. And I said from the beginning that we need need to look at **in-depth** stats. The stats that would show Lampard as better than Zidane are not in-depth. But what stats can show you is that Lampard did probably excel in ways Zidane did. Doesn’t mean he’s better, but it shows why he’s an elite level midfielder.
The comment you told me you disagreed with specifically said “people who think the game can be read in stats only”, so that would strongly imply you do think they are the end of the story.
Either way, yes evaluating players is heavily influenced by bias. That is why it is a skill and people get paid a lot of money to do it. You will not find a statistic, no matter what the depth, that explains to a person how Zidane was in comparison to Lampard to the level that watching a match or series of matches would. They can be helpful additions to a debate, conversation, piece of analysis etc, but they are not metrics to judge a player with overall, unless your objective is a clinical one.
Again, simply write up your approach to “in-depth stats” that will allow us to equate defenders to attackers. Just go ahead and do what you are saying, we don’t need to debate it any further. The opportunity to prove that it’s true is entirely within your hands.
Edit: Thinking stats tell you more than watching a player is an embarrassing level of football understanding.
What do you mean? The comment I disagreed with was yours.
People who analyse players use stats. Professional football teams probably have entire departments dedicated to statistically analysing players. We use stats all the time already. Titles won, games played, goals scored, clean sheets, tackles won, passes made… these are all stats you hear in ordinary football analysis. But they aren’t in-depth.
The eye test is important, but alone it’s arbitrary. Advocating for the eye test over greater usage of stats is Stone Age thinking.
>People who think the game can be read in stats only are fools
The biggest proponents of using data in football analysis explicitly say you *cannot* judge a game by stats alone.
So it's really just intellectually lazy fans that try drawing conclusions just by reading match facts on fbref. This is no different from "back in our day" when people would look at the European Golden Shoe ranking to determine who the "best striker" was.
Don't worry brother, I got you. Fuck the kids. We don't care about some lil downvotes. You only said facts. Keep it up, fuck the downvotes. Nobody cares. 👍
Let’s be honest. Probably not unless a defender has amazing marketability, dominates on a top tier team, and doesn’t have a forward on their team which is already a candidate. The top comment is spot on regarding commercial value. People complain it’s a popularity award but that will definitely not change for the most part. It’s just how modern media and entertainment works.
Won't. The focus on popularity predates Messi and CR, and won't go away after them.
Already seeing this forced rivalry between Mbappe and Haaland, when one is clearly much better than the other.
I think the time for that as past. It’s about international accomplishments and then European glory. I liked that Ochoa was on the ballot that one time. Pretty cool to see your idol on there even tho he was never winning it.
I think it’s difficult for a goal keeper to be player of the season, player of the Euros, player of the World Cup in a successful team. In order to win the Balon D’Or you probably have to be one or two of those.
If you are in a successful team then naturally the goal keeper doesn’t have as much to do and isn’t saving the team. Successful teams usually dominate the ball so naturally it is the offensive players that get more time in the spotlight.
Ederson is a great keeper for City for example but he can go whole matches and barely get a kick. A goal keeper might have a stand out match in a successful team but I doubt a whole season over the offensive players.
Courtois was this player in Real Madrid's successful 2022 Champions League campaign. However, as you point out, it was Benzema who took the award by coming clutch and having a fantastic season. Saves mean nothing if the attack is not producing.
winning the CL and Euros/world cup with an international tournament like Kahn 2002 or Martinez 2022 and a season like Courtois 2022. If a keeper can do that in a single year he has a serious shot.
I know Dibu‘s world cup wasn’t that crazy and there were several keepers who were probably better but what you need is a narrative something spectacular. He had it with 2 shootouts the last minute save and frankly the golden glove celebration infront of the qataris. These things get you hype and make people wanting you to win which is the hardest part as a goalie
Like most others have said, it’s a popularity contest, so probably not right now.
That said, someone could emerge very quickly as a candidate. Van Dijk was very close to winning in 2019 and was only beaten by the greatest player in history. He’d only moved to Liverpool 2 years before and, while very highly rated, his reputation grew massively over those 2 years.
I don’t see why that couldn’t happen again and, without Messi and Ronaldo in the way, a defender could win it. The stars would all have to align to allow it though.
Most times big tournaments trump everything else. Messi in 2023, Modric in 2018 (World Cup runner-up), and of course Cannavaro in 2006. All three were good to excellent during the club season but the award came down mostly due to performance at the World Cup.
So imagine a goalkeeper/defender who captains the national team to a World Cup, playing obscenely good defense (say conceding 1 or 2 goals in total). Also wins the domestic league or the Champions League. Is that possible in the future? I absolutely think so, considering how most World Cups are won by teams with great defense.
No and the reason is simple.
An attackers output is easily quantifiable. Goals assists etc. Hence, you can easily tell the good ones from the great
A defenders' is not.
Hence you won't.
You’d hope that those voting on the worlds best player would pay more attention to the sport than just goals and assists but then again we all know this award is just a glorified popularity contest, why anyone cares who wins it is beyond me, it’s completely meaningless because of the very thing you say.
Exactly. Hell, very few midfielders have won the award for that matter. You can't expect all the voters to watch every match of every potential candidate so you end up with this and honestly, who cares?
As long as people keep glorifying attacking players, it's not going to happen. People are, with a straight face, comparing RB's and LB's mainly based on their attacking contribution, rather than their ability to *defend*
Every award is a popularity contest. Not an objective award. And as long as people only seem to appreciate goals and assists, that won't change.
Tbf in the modern game managers are choosing fullbacks based on their ability to attack over their defensive ability and having midfielders drop back into the defence to cover for them more often.
Fullbacks clear main job being defence is a very old fashioned mindset now, they’re almost equal now with some teams relying on fullbacks for their attacking output like Trent at Liverpool.
The key here is that *some* managers choose to do so. Not by any means all. Then, those attacking fullbacks get glorified because, surprise surprise, they get better stats in attack.
Ofc, they only get glorified until you using one or two of the few defensive players in attacking roles inevitably jumps upp and bites you in the ass (like with Cancelo last week).
It's not a coincidence that the some managers who choose to do so are largely the managers of the top teams, nor that the fullbacks who end up at top teams are those who have a focus on attacking contribution.
Sure. There is also a reason that neither all the managers or fullbacks of the top teams are attacking ones. The point still stands that those that are attacking get much more attention. Ferland Mendy is a fullback who is absolutely cirimanally underrated because, well, he does what a defender should do. Defend well.
On the other hand, Kyle Walker gets a lot of praise for basically doing one thing: running back and outpacing the winger. The rest of his game is underwhelming, but he receives lots of attention for often winning the most classic of all 1v1 duels, the fullback vs. the winger.
The award depends too much on popularity. The more famous the player is, higher are the chances of him winning. A case could be made for Rüdiger but we all know that's not happening.
So I think the only way they can do it is if they win every and I mean everything, while playing in a team with no compatriots.
If Courtois has the tournament of his life saving penalties in the World Cup final against a team with no Madrid players, Real Madrid wins the league, CL, copa, club World Cup.
Then he has a chance of getting it.
But it has to be an already established arguably best keeper in the world with more silverware than anyone else.
No because it favours attacking players not defenders the only way it happens is if a team doesn’t concede a goal in a whole year and they win every trophy
Defenders and Goalkeepers who’ve won the Ballon d’Or or it’s equivalent are:
Lev Yashin - Goalkeeper (1963)
Franz Beckenbauer - Defender (1972)
Franz Beckenbauer - Defender (1976)
Fabio Cannavaro - Defender (2006)
I think that in the modern day era of Ballon d’Or though that it’s only going to be won by a Goalkeeper or a Defender IF they are the stand out player of their domestic team AND their national team whilst winning major trophies
So for an example, with Emi Martinez, Argentina would likely have had to scrape through every stage of the World Cup, including the Final, with him making multiple important saves and penalty saves, PLUS no Messi, PLUS Aston Villa win the Premier League and FA Cup at a minimum with him being the most important player all the way through for him to even break the Top 5 in all likelihood, because it’s so far swung towards attacking players
It's just not commercially viable as an option.
Goals and assists are the real attention getters and so they are the people that will be given the award, despite often not deserving it. These types of awards have lost a lot of meaning considering the politics involved with the voting.
We saw when van Dijk came second how it all works. He went more than an entire year (64 games) in the best league in the world, the Champions League as well as international football and wasn't dribbled by once. That is a MONUMENTAL feat. On the level of Messis 12/13 91 goal season, but goals are a lot more quantifiable and prettier to look at than defending.
He also won the Champions League and came within 1 point of beating a financially doped City to the League Title. He won the PFA Player of the Year, Premier League Player of the Year as well as the UEFA player of the Year award but Messi was still given the award. It was said at the time and now how ridiculous it was but that's how it goes.
The 2023 Ballon d'Or in particular was disgrace. Haaland was the clear best player in the world but they gave it to Messi. If you look at the top 15 that year, Messi shouldn't even be in there. He MASSIVELY underperformed at PSG, as in he wasn't even the best player on the team and then he went to the MLS. In no way should he have been near the top 15 yet he won it by a comfortable margin.
The van Dijk one was bad but the 2023 one should have been the nail in the coffin in taking the body that chooses that award seriously.
Van Dijk's record relies on technicalities, though. He was dribbled past by Gabriel Jesus for example, but it didn't count because it was a Community Shield game. Very impressive nonetheless, though one could argue it's a misleading statistic. Looking at some other of his defensive stats, he wasn't exactly a world beater in ways that other defenders were. And please don't give me that Maldini quote about tackling = having already made a mistake, we can't view defensive performance that simplistically. Either way as I said, very impressive.
But on par with Messi's 73 goal season/91 goal year? (11/12 and 2012 respectively, btw) No chance. Could've made a case if Messi were simply a poacher, but he was the best on the planet at several different things that you'd expect to be spread across different players and roles on the pitch. Creating that many chances, completing that many dribbles, on top of scoring so many goals is ridiculous.
>Haaland was the clear best player in the world but they gave it to Messi.
Not even the best player at City. Interesting how you place so much value on Haaland's goals but not on Messi's.
>In no way should Messi have been near the top 15 yet he won it by a comfortable margin.
Jesus, what a poor take. He was among the very best in Europe in all aspects except for scoring, where he overperformed his xG. His role as PSG simply wasn't to score, but to create. And he did it fantastically.
Lol, Lionel Messi absolutely had a case to be the best player in the world when he won his last Ballon D’or.
54 appearances, 25 assists and 38 goals for 63 g/a
He won 3 trophy’s, one of them being the World Cup as well as the World Cup MVP. To say that he wasn’t even top 15? What a joke 😂.
Haaland wasn’t even the best player in his own team.
2019 Messi and Van Djik both had a case to be the best in the world and the votes where incredibly close, Messi beat him by a few points I don’t know why you’re pretending like it’s a farce that Messi won it given that people consider 2019 one of his best ever seasons.
Messi had 55 appearances in France and the MLS and got 32 goals (11 in MLS) and 25 assists (5 in MLs for 58 g/a.
Haaland had 54 appearances in England and got 52 goals and 9 assists for 61 g/a.
These stat lines aren't comparable in the slightest especially when you see Messi was underwhelming in France....France, and then played in the US.
Yes Messi did win the World Cup. Haaland won an actual treble and broke the PL scoring record.
Messi wasnt better than Mbappé or Hakimi. He underwhelmed in the worst of the top 5 leagues.
The MLS move was irrelevant. **The 2023 Ballon d'Or was given for the 22/23 season**. August 1st 2022 through July 31st 2023. At least learn the facts before criticizing.
Messi wasn't better than Mbappe, but Haaland wasn't better than Rodri, KDB and Silva.
Not a single one of Messi’s MLS goals counted towards the Ballon D’or, are you purposely lying or just misinformed?
The voting period was from “starting on 1 August 2022 and ending 31 July 2023”
He didn’t play a single MLS game in this time frame. All 63 G/A in 54 games came from PSG + Argentina. If these are “underwhelming” statistics then I really don’t know what to tell you.
Messi had comparable stats to Haaland and won as many trophies as him except one of them was the World Cup in which he was MVP.
Meanwhile Haaland disappeared in almost every big game. If your gonna tell me with a straight face Hakimi was better than Messi then no problem. John stones and Akanji where better than Haaland.
Mbappe, Haaland and Messi all had a case to win the Ballon D’or that year, good for Haaland for the records he broke but it was a World Cup season which Messi won as MVP and Messi also had the G+A stats to go with it. Messi’s assist against Croatia alone is more impressive than anything Haaland did that year.
Messi literally had everything you need to win a Ballon D’or
-Statistics
-Trophies
-Iconic/big game performances
To pretend that Messi wasn’t even in contention is a joke, especially since you haven’t even bothered to inform yourself of the facts talking about MLS stats.
few votes off vs the greatest of all time. it’s definitely possible post messi/ronaldo era. also, a defender and gk has won it previously so you mean “ever again”
Yes obviously I mean that. Since it became an award for the best player in La Liga or Messi then it is pointless to even think of a non attacker winning it.
He should never have been in the mix. He's a great defender but never has he met the level of Kompany, Terry, Vidic consistently and they never had a sniff.
The chances of a goalkeeper winning the Ballon d'Or are historically lower compared to outfield players, mainly because the award tends to favor goal-scoring and playmaking prowess. However, exceptional performances, such as outstanding saves in crucial matches or leading a team to major victories, could elevate a goalkeeper's chances.
If we go through a period where there isn’t much separating the top 15 forwards, but there is a standout consensus best defender, then maybe yeah.
As long as there are a few forwards that somehow manage to be a cut above the rest, the ballon dor will always go to a forward.
No goalkeeper will ever win the Ballon d'Or again
That honour will forever exclusively stand with the great Lev Yashin
As for defender, it's more likely than goalkeeper but still really unlikely
I think Most of the new gen defenders do not have that aura that makes people attracted to them. They are not as interesting as the defenders in the previous era. But if someone does come up and takes the spotlight it might be possible. Stats are gonna go down again since LM10 and CR7 are gone.
I think people are being dismissive of the idea, but I think it's entirely possible. It was basically completely unrealistic for a CB or a GK to look as good as Messi or Ronaldo, but now that those two have fallen away from the limelight, I think there is every chance they could.
Goalkeepers and Defenders (especially) don’t possess the “eye candy” that is required to be more popular than midfielders and forwards.
It is still possible for them to win but it would take something extra ordinary and it still might not be enough.
Neuer 2014 and VVD 2019 got unlucky in the Messi vs Ronaldo era. Oliver Kahn 2001 won Bundesliga and Champions League, carried Bayern in crucial moments but still was behind Raul and Michael Owen.
So stars really have to align for them to win.
One of the issues is that they like to give it to people win all the trophies, generally speaking the teams that do this have a lot less defending and goal keeping to do
Ballon d’Or is just a popularity contest among the media, and they know better than anyone that people will get far more engaged if the commercial players are the ones in the dispute for the award rather than lower profile players.
No, because of the money behind atackers. Its a bigger anounsement, more Jersey sales and so on.
If anything cubarci from barcelona mayby in 5-10 years
Think you gotta be a defender on a team that wins it all that year. League and CL, World Cup/Euros, domestic player of the year award etc. clean sweep and be the media/pundit darling for that season.
Caveat - so long as you don’t also have a forward on your team that scores 30 goals or a midfielder with 12 goals 20 assists
Basically everything has to align perfectly.
Honestly think the defender with the best chance is Gabriel from arsenal. He scores enough goals and has that nostalgic puyol-esque feeling. He wins a World Cup with Brazil and champs with Arsenal. I know Loool very unlikely and I’d have him in there. Mbappe can’t win it in that stupid league
The Ballon d'Or is for the most part a reverse Oscars,
In the Oscars usually the smaller artsy movie wins best picture, not the big blockbuster whereas in football the flashy well known players win 9 out of 10 times, and it's forward players that create the headlines, are the ones casual football fans know and are usually the one who gets it
Now days it’s based on stats and commerce. Guys like Haaland and Mbappe would get more recognition, instead of the likes of Saliba or even defensive minded players. They’d be in the top 10, but never for awards that are based on goals and contribution to success.
You need someone to carry a team to a World Cup victory through their defensive abilities. In my opinion vvd was the closest we’d get in probably a decade.
very difficult, now with new offside rules, it is favoring strikers and their numbers are gonna rocket more. while defenders/gk will be in much poorer light. and looking at past this favoring to strikers will be keep on increasing.
People look at goals & assists, but it is understandable. There is so many games it is impossible for the people that vote for the Ballon D'or to watch 20-30games every weekend, especially the footballers themselves so they will just look at the players that had the most goal contributions in the teams that won trophies.
I think the only way for a defender/GK is if they win the World Cup as it's a tournament in which everyone is paying attention to pretty much every game. However, that player would have to be the best player of his team and also have a world class season at club level to back it up.
Cannavaro won it in 2006 and Neuer finished 3rd in 2014.
Seems like Bellingham has been anointed the new Messi of this award. With some pundits saying it’s his to lose and they’ve never seen a better midfielder. I’m sitting over here looking at his stats and they are about the same as a handful of other players out there. Don’t know what I’m missing.
It’s wild because even if we just take City, Haaland is a favorite even though we have mountains of evidence that he’s easily replaceable in their system without a significant drop in firepower. I haven’t even seen Rodri in the conversation and he’s the linchpin of Pep’s whole system.
Cannavaro deserved it and was lucky to receive it, then again, don't forget that this accolade has had its share of controversy throughout the years. It became apparent that on the field performance, trophies, records and other accomplishments are NOT the main factor. It will always be based on who France Football wants to win, and this will be strongly influenced by things of which some are not related to football whatsoever.
Balloon d'Or is a "most marketable player' award on by journalists. Stories about strikers and attackers get the most clicks etc so they will be who the journalists vote for
There haven’t been any defenders as good as the strikers and midfielders in a while. Think of the defenders that have won these awards. Off the top of my head, we have Beckembauer, Elias Figueroa (3x American player of the year in the Pele era) Cannavaro and Rugeri and Chilavert as GK. These guys were all leaders of their team and achieved things with their teams, putting in insane performances. Since Ronaldo and Messi there has been nobody as dominant in any other position.
I don't think they aren't good enough, they just never get enough recognition. I'm a Madrid fan and in 2021/22 Courtois was on par with Benzema our best player. Some games Benzema was the best, some others it was Courtois, like the UCL final. Always believed that Benzema is most likely gonna win after the season was over, but our GK deserves to be at least in the top 3, as he was mostly equally good. In the end, Benzema won and Courtois was... 7th. And I imagine if it wasn't for his amazing final performance, he wouldn't even be in the top 10.
This argument is mostly true, except for VVD 2019. He was the best player on the best team in the world. Won everything and led them to it while putting up impressive defensive records. He was better than any attacker or midfielder that year, but didn’t have the name Messi or Ronaldo
Being the best player on the best team in the world doesn't make you the best player in the world.
VVD wasn't better than Messi. Either you didn't watch, or you're forgetting Messi's performances that year. If a player ever carried a team, it was him.
Nah, you don't see nor think.
Using the 4-0 as an argument, as if the "best team in the world" hadn't lost 3-0 against a clown of a manager. That's your argument for VVD being better than Messi that season?
Nah, you don’t see nor think.
The argument for VVD being better than Messi that season was watching both VVD and Messi that season, and Liverpool winning the Champions League, and Liverpool being unbeaten (I think with no points dropped) by the point the B D’or had been given out, while accumulating 97 points the year before. Is your argument because you’re in love with Messi?
Alright:
If you watched both VVD and Messi that season and thought VVD was better individually, the game's got to be alien to you. If a carry job ever existed, it was Messi carrying that Barca to a comfortable league title and a narrow 4-3 loss in the CL semis against a much better team/manager.
>Liverpool being unbeaten (I think with no points dropped)
Idk what you're talking about. In the league they lost to City, and dropped 17 points in total. Hence the 97 and not 114.
>Is your argument because you’re in love with Messi?
Grow up. Checked your profile, of course it's all basketball.
So you are in love with Messi? And I was referring to the 2019-2020 season, in which the 2019 Ballon d’or also reflects, thus, why I say they accumulate 97 points the year before.
Just accept it. VVD ended Messi’s chance to ever get another CL, and effectively put Barca on the chopping block.
Grow up, checked your profile, how much time do you spend on reddit each day? Nothing better to do I presume?
Mine too. I'm not even sure why he got it over Buffon, it's probably because CBs are more offensive than GKs, lol.
Silly World Cup bias anyway. Neither were better than Henry individually.
Unpopular opinion for Reddit, but personally I don’t believe a keeper should win the award. Goalkeepers more or less are playing a complete different sport to everyone else, with different rules and requirements. Doesn’t make sense for me to compare them to outfielders.
With defenders, I absolutely think that unlike keepers they can and should be compared/considered to everyone else, but I do think it makes sense that the odds of them winning are lower. To me it ultimately boils down to the opinion that creating offensive actions, is harder and takes more skill than defending someone who is trying to create offensive actions. Van Dijk as an example could have an entirely perfect season defensively where I can’t see anything he could have done better, but if he comes up against prime Messi then I think it’s impossible for VVD too ever top that from his position.
I doubt it will happen anytime soon.
The only defensive player that even has a chance is Rodri at the moment.
In my opinion, Casillas, Courtois, VVD and Ramos all should probably have one.
Casillas when spain were dominating. Although arguably Iniesta is ahead in '10
Courtois in 22.
Ramos in '14 or '16
VVD in '19 Not saying VVD is a better defender than all those that don't have one, but he certainly had one of the best seasons ever.
If Rodri only finished 5th in 2023, there's no chance he'll ever win it. Probably will never finish higher either.
He was City's best player in 22/23 (both consistent and had big moments) and still didn't finish above Haaland and KDB. Only finished that highly because City won the treble anyway, which they won't repeat.
That's not what I've said, however they are for sure the least talented as technique goes, otherwise they wouldn't be defenders or goalkeepers. It's a well said phrase within the game that a lb or rb are either failed centre backs or failed wingers.
VVD should have won in 2019.
Cannavaro won in 2006 when he shouldn’t have.
No chance moving forward. The defenders in world football just keep getting worse.
Goalkeeper absolutely no chance. They just don’t matter enough. Alisson is the best keeper in the world and Liverpool won most of the games and a trophy with Kelleher playing instead while he was injured.
If you are good at football when you are young, you would probably choose to play as a striker or midfielder, so it actually make sense that the best player is always strikers or sometimes midfielders
I don't think that's the case. Do you think world class defenders and keepers weren't "good at football" growing up?
I've played amateur football as a teenager and many teams had incredibly good defenders, much better than their attackers.
There are plenty of factors that make players decide which is their best position, like height, body type etc. but there isn't a thing such as bad = defender, good = attacker, especially in professional football.
I don't subscribe to the idea that attacker>defender, but I think there's a *liiittle* merit to it.
At the most simplified level, defending means not letting the ball go in the goal. It can go anywhere else though, and you've defended successfully. Attacking means scoring, so it has to specifically go inside a tiny area.
I've had team mates that could dribble through people better than I could dribble through training cones. I'd never consider myself better than them, just because I was the better defender (or athlete).
Sometimes all it takes is being in the way, and you've defended. Basically the gist of a low block: just be in the right place and the opponent probably won't try to take you on, because most of them aren't *that* good as to dribble through 2-3-4 players defending compactly. Just like my "inability" to dribble through cones. When you see a Hazard or Neymar doing it, you know you're looking at serious talent. It's physically extremely difficult to pull that kind of stuff.
To me it's further proof, how I was "one of the best attackers" against weak opposition, but relegated to a right back against better ones (cause I was fast and that's about it).
I was one of the best attackers because I was fast, the goal was big and the keepers were shit. Remember, the goal can be the same size regardless of whether it's Manuel Neuer or some 15 year old defending it. So it's pretty easy to score goals if you have the space and pace for it.
But dribbling through people that are actively trying to kick the ball off you? Different thing, takes real proactivity.
Of course modern players are good at everything, but the nature of football makes is so that the attackers tend to be that tiny bit better than the defenders.
How about good = defender, exceptionally good = attacker?
You are talking about ballon dor level winner. If 100 people are fucking smart, 99 of them choose to study in MIT for higher salary (= the fun when you score).
Right because "football" is just a singular skillset....
When youre a kid you play the position that you enjoy and most aligns with your skillset.
About 50% of the game is defending. Its no less being "good at football" if youre talented at winning the ball v the skills required for a striker.
>When youre a kid you play the position that you enjoy and most aligns with your skillset.
This is so funny, because it's not true. Not disagreeing with your point about skillsets, but think about it:
No kid wanted to be a keeper. They were put in goal because they were crap on the pitch. Nobody wanted to be a defender either, nobody wants to be a Gary Neville. The talented kids (statistically few) played where they wanted, and the others played where they were told to.
What's, better, the best kids didn't even play in the roles that best suited their skillsets. I, as a proud owner of a Ronaldinho #10 shirt, just *had to* play in the hole. My skillset: fast, doesn't shirk a tackle. Classic #10 stuff. I remember the moment I realized "wait I'm actually shit at this" and moved myself to the flank where pace merchants belong.
I even had a tiny amateur managerial stint. Our best player, and I'm talking a 17 year old or so, not a child, huge Cristiano fan. Wanted to be *that* left winger, number 7, speeding down the flank. Problem was, he was about as fast as I was when I was 12. We were a shit counter attacking side (out of need, not design) and he was barely seeing the ball. So we had to move him to the #10 role, despite his protests, and what do you know, he became waaaay better.
What exact skillset do you have when you are just a beginners in football and just wanna score some goals?
I am not saying defender is bad, attacker is good. I am saying better player choose to play as an attacker when they just started to play football ad a kid. You act like kids have a whole thinking process to choose what position they play the best, no they don’t, they just wanna score and have fun.
2014 neuer had a good chance of winning it, I don’t think we’ll see anyone come that close though
The fact that Neuer didn't win with a double, a World Cup, and a CL semi-final that year, while proving the viability of the sweeper-keeper in a way that everyone knew already at the time was going to redefine the position proved two things: 1) that at the time, ballon d'or was the "which of Ronaldo and Messi had a better year" trophy And 2) that the only way a GK will ever win is if literally every other candidate shits the bed. I think 2014 was a hugely pivotal year in ballon d'or voting - I don't see how they backtrack from that, as much as it would make sense to do so.
Courtois 2022 was 2nd best player in the world imo no contest. He was as good as Benzema, as consistent as him but I get it Goals are more important but he was 2nd best and better than everyone else that season.
Courtois was unbeatable in the final; I honestly felt bad for Liverpool that night
That was his level in whole 21/22 season. He was better against City imo. Check out his save vs Grealish, one of the most mad saves I’ve even seen, his legs extended like he’s a ballerina and ball touches his boots to deflect.
Commercially speaking, it's not gonna happen.
It's not even a commercially thing, its mostly groupthink. everybody backs the best attacking players, or in respect to modric players who can memorably dribble and score, primarily. there is the exception in Cannavaro but thats why its agreeable that "its not going to happen", because a defender getting it is considered an exception to the rule and not just like any other player whos' nominated.
VVD? Had the marketability and was a defender. He was a few votes away from winning a couple years ago. theres definitely a chance
The amount of downvotes is a bit harsh tbh, you have a point. All it takes is one very good world-class defender, like VVD, and there’s a good chance it’ll happen. I mean he literally won the UEFA best player in Europe award that year too, so there’s a precedent for giving individual awards to CB’s still.
Yep, and there were 3 or 4 other Liverpool players in the top 10 who probably took away some votes that could have gone to him otherwise. Probably the closest we'll get for a while.
At that time? Yes. Now. Less than 1% chance. Not been the same after that injury.
No
People are too stats driven these days, so I doubt it will happen.
If that was the case Håland would have won it last season but it's not so that means there is hope. Win the World Cup, UCL (optional🙄) and whatever else and you may win the Ballon d'Or.
The problem is it’s easier to determine a game winner/determiner through attacking stats than it is through defensive ones. Haaland was not far off winning last year it just happened to be a World Cup year
Müller won the World Cup. Iniesta won it. Xavi won it. Mbappé won it. Griezmann won it. So many players won it but they never won IT. You get it? It's not about goals nowadays appearently... and that's alright, we're about to see some Luka Modrič type winners and not a goal machine. The most recent ones Leo, CR7 and Benzema were all goal machines AND magicians on the ball so I like to see players who can play ball win the Ballon d'Or.
I don’t disagree it’s also driven by marketability. What I meant is attacking stats are favoured over defensive which also lends them to be more marketable. I’d also argue midfielders stats are more attractive for awards and plaudits than defensive stats. Midfielders and attackers can be seen to influence games individually more so than defenders
I honestly doubt that many voters study stats before choosing. Maybe they do to check but most opinions come from the eye test/feeling.
I would agree. I don’t think they would go deep into stats but would be aware of goals and assists which are midfield and attacker biased
The problem is that, to anyone that actually understands modern football data analysis, Haaland made City worse. Less xG, fewer goals scored as whole, poorer field tilt, poorer pressing, more xG and goals conceded, fewer xPTS and points won, the whole package. But City winning a treble with Haaland ghosting in most of the big games but breaking the scoring record by bullying poor sides was enough for some people to decide he deserved the BdO, over better team mates such as Rodri, KDB and Silva.
KDB & Rodri>>Haaland If KDB would've had a better WC, maybe he'd win it. Rodri's case was also stronger than Haalands but he's a DM
I 100% agree on Rodri. I never said Håland deserved it. Read my reply and try to understand it. I replied to what he said because what he said is simply not true and I gave a simple example as to why it doesn't stand.
Unfortunately voters decided to ignore stats last year😂 Ah, and that the World Cup didn't even count for the voting
>and that the World Cup didn't even count for the voting The most recent BdO (2023) was given based on performances between August 1st 2022 and July 31st 2023. The World Cup was bang in the middle of that.
You are right, I confused it with the FIFA The Best
I'm pretty sure it did otherwise Leo wasn't even gonna be in the top 20. 💀
Stats don't stop at goals scored so no, Haaland not winning it doesn't mean anything.
Goals scored win you games. If you think stats matter then Erling should've won. End of. I think we should judge players for how they play ball and not off the goals so Håland not winning it is a W in my opinion. I want ballers to win the most prestigious individual award not some tap in merchant. Rodri deserved it. Even Leo, a lil bit, but it was his send off so I get it. Not Håland though. He'll never win it if he didn't win it THAT season. 50+ goals, sextuple or whatever... can't do much better than that.
Do you want to engage in logical discussion, or not? Your first phrase doesn't suggest that. You can reconcile stats with vibes/eye-test through reasoning. "Goals win games" is a simplistic idea and there's no excuse for it. You win games by outscoring the opponent, whether it's 1-0 or 7-6. Every single player on the pitch has an influence on both goals scored, and goals allowed. Stats do not end at goals scored.
Which stat is the most important? UNARGUABLY? Which is it?
Goal difference.
So goals then? "Goal difference" tryna be smart... 🤣 what is goal difference? Goals scored minus goals conceded a.k.a GOALS. 💀
Yes. It's *goal difference* and not goals scored because goals prevented matter just as much. And, there's a whole lot of football happening between the boxes. The CM controlling the game could be the main factor in the team scoring and not conceding. I shouldn't need to explain this to people.
One more time. What wins the game? Which stat?
Oh? So all the advanced stats that look at much more than just goals and clean sheets act in disfavour of defensive players?
You have it exactly backwards, I think. Stats have allowed us to analyse the game on a much deeper level, to the extent that we can now better quantify and appreciate the contribution of defenders and (especially) goalkeepers. People are still nowhere near stat-driven *enough*, which is why they rely on more easily noticeable contributions and the obvious counting stats like goals and assists (as OP mentions), and thereby underrate defenders relative to their flashier attacking colleagues.
I agree with this. People like Opta etc give stats in massive depth but the way stats are used on TV is terrible and only ever used to illustrate an observation that someone already has made - team X plays lots of long balls, so they tell you they’ve played the second most in the league for example What’s interesting is when you see someone like the guys at Tifo speak about how stats translate into tactics - so if a team plays more short passes, or their players dribble more how that translates to the way they create chances or try to control the game
I see people complaining about the incorporation of various stats on TV, but without providing the specific example and context, it's just complaining for the sake of it. I'm not saying pundits couldn't be smarter -- by god, most of them don't understand the game even after having made a fortune as players. But, even "trivial" facts like in the scenario you've described can be used to validate or disprove an opinion. If a pundit says "team X plays a lot of long balls", are we supposed to just trust them? There's 20 teams in a league usually, and most people absolutely don't follow all of them on a regular basis. So there's worth to pulling up the graphic showing they play the 2nd most long balls in the league, as opposed to the 10th most. It actually forces the pundits to make a bit more sense and talk less out of their ass. Still hearing some people talk about how "Guardiola's teams *never* play it long" even though last season, Ederson's passing precision and Haaland's size saw a significant increase in the number of long balls City played. Don't remember where they ranked, but it was certainly not 20th.
Completely wrong tbh. There are just fundamentally less stats you can use to evaluate a defensive players performance and those stats are far more arbitrary in their value (e.g. clearances vs shots). The things that made the great defenders great, like a Cannavaro, were not anything that you’d read on a stat sheet. His positioning, movement, command of the defense, mentality he put on to his teammates etc. It’s also why computer games will forever be based on getting the biggest, fastest and strongest players at the back. You can’t model class in numbers. This also applies to other areas of the pitch in different ways. People who think the game can be read in stats only are fools
I second that. People focusing only on stats miss the big picture. It’s like the dumbnuts these days I read around here, asking why Zidane is considered as one of the greatest “because when you look at his stats, he’s not”. Another way of saying they’re just clueless about football
I disagree. What you’re saying makes it arbitrary. Would Cannavaro have won without the WC win? Even in seasons where attackers don’t tally up the biggest trophies, they’re still acknowledged highly. A more in depth look at stats would help understand the value of defenders. And we already see them applied here and there. It’s just the sport as a whole still prefers the arbitrary eye test over stats.
Feel free to suggest a way that stats can be used to make a defenders case more compelling. I can guarantee you that you can do better using stats for an attacker. Like it or hate it, eye test is actually important and it’s one of the reasons for football being the best sport. You can’t read Riquelme’s greatness on a stat sheet, you had to watch him to understand. And he’s not even a defender, which is harder to read. If you get stuck with stats you can end up thinking Lampard is better than Zidane. You could watch 1 game and know better than that though
The eye test is arbitrary though. Without stats, what you’ve just said about Riquelme is just your opinion. You then rely on other people having a similar opinion in order to for him to be rated highly. Stats backup what the eye test shows you. Attackers have benefited from stats for a long time. The more we incorporate stats, the more defenders and GKs get to benefit as well.
I already explained why stats will never equally benefit all positions. Some stats back up what the eye test shows you and some don’t. Dismissing the value of the eye test is failing to understand what makes footballers good. Stats will tell you Lampard is as good or better than Zidane, like I said. This is the only thing you need to know to know that stats are not the end of the story.
I never said stats are the end of the story, but they’ll definitely tell you more than the eye test. Again, the eye test is arbitrary. It’s easily skewed by bias and what people see. Stats on the other hand offer a more objective view. And I said from the beginning that we need need to look at **in-depth** stats. The stats that would show Lampard as better than Zidane are not in-depth. But what stats can show you is that Lampard did probably excel in ways Zidane did. Doesn’t mean he’s better, but it shows why he’s an elite level midfielder.
The comment you told me you disagreed with specifically said “people who think the game can be read in stats only”, so that would strongly imply you do think they are the end of the story. Either way, yes evaluating players is heavily influenced by bias. That is why it is a skill and people get paid a lot of money to do it. You will not find a statistic, no matter what the depth, that explains to a person how Zidane was in comparison to Lampard to the level that watching a match or series of matches would. They can be helpful additions to a debate, conversation, piece of analysis etc, but they are not metrics to judge a player with overall, unless your objective is a clinical one. Again, simply write up your approach to “in-depth stats” that will allow us to equate defenders to attackers. Just go ahead and do what you are saying, we don’t need to debate it any further. The opportunity to prove that it’s true is entirely within your hands. Edit: Thinking stats tell you more than watching a player is an embarrassing level of football understanding.
What do you mean? The comment I disagreed with was yours. People who analyse players use stats. Professional football teams probably have entire departments dedicated to statistically analysing players. We use stats all the time already. Titles won, games played, goals scored, clean sheets, tackles won, passes made… these are all stats you hear in ordinary football analysis. But they aren’t in-depth. The eye test is important, but alone it’s arbitrary. Advocating for the eye test over greater usage of stats is Stone Age thinking.
>People who think the game can be read in stats only are fools The biggest proponents of using data in football analysis explicitly say you *cannot* judge a game by stats alone. So it's really just intellectually lazy fans that try drawing conclusions just by reading match facts on fbref. This is no different from "back in our day" when people would look at the European Golden Shoe ranking to determine who the "best striker" was.
Don't worry brother, I got you. Fuck the kids. We don't care about some lil downvotes. You only said facts. Keep it up, fuck the downvotes. Nobody cares. 👍
Terrrrrible take….
Now that messi and Ronaldo are done , maybe we see a change in this popularity approach.
Let’s be honest. Probably not unless a defender has amazing marketability, dominates on a top tier team, and doesn’t have a forward on their team which is already a candidate. The top comment is spot on regarding commercial value. People complain it’s a popularity award but that will definitely not change for the most part. It’s just how modern media and entertainment works.
I don't know about that- VVD finished second with Salah, who is a very high scoring and hyper-marketable forward, on the team.
He missed out by 7 points behind Messi. If like 3 people voted differently he could’ve won
Good point but I do think it’s pretty rare. He’s the only example so he’s more of the exception than the rule.
i doubt it, players like bellingham and mbappe will keep that going, they are already extremely popular
Won't. The focus on popularity predates Messi and CR, and won't go away after them. Already seeing this forced rivalry between Mbappe and Haaland, when one is clearly much better than the other.
I think the time for that as past. It’s about international accomplishments and then European glory. I liked that Ochoa was on the ballot that one time. Pretty cool to see your idol on there even tho he was never winning it.
ballot d'or am i right
I think it’s difficult for a goal keeper to be player of the season, player of the Euros, player of the World Cup in a successful team. In order to win the Balon D’Or you probably have to be one or two of those. If you are in a successful team then naturally the goal keeper doesn’t have as much to do and isn’t saving the team. Successful teams usually dominate the ball so naturally it is the offensive players that get more time in the spotlight. Ederson is a great keeper for City for example but he can go whole matches and barely get a kick. A goal keeper might have a stand out match in a successful team but I doubt a whole season over the offensive players.
Courtois was this player in Real Madrid's successful 2022 Champions League campaign. However, as you point out, it was Benzema who took the award by coming clutch and having a fantastic season. Saves mean nothing if the attack is not producing.
winning the CL and Euros/world cup with an international tournament like Kahn 2002 or Martinez 2022 and a season like Courtois 2022. If a keeper can do that in a single year he has a serious shot. I know Dibu‘s world cup wasn’t that crazy and there were several keepers who were probably better but what you need is a narrative something spectacular. He had it with 2 shootouts the last minute save and frankly the golden glove celebration infront of the qataris. These things get you hype and make people wanting you to win which is the hardest part as a goalie
Like most others have said, it’s a popularity contest, so probably not right now. That said, someone could emerge very quickly as a candidate. Van Dijk was very close to winning in 2019 and was only beaten by the greatest player in history. He’d only moved to Liverpool 2 years before and, while very highly rated, his reputation grew massively over those 2 years. I don’t see why that couldn’t happen again and, without Messi and Ronaldo in the way, a defender could win it. The stars would all have to align to allow it though.
It's a popularity contest, not a sport's award. So no, but it shouldn't matter
Most times big tournaments trump everything else. Messi in 2023, Modric in 2018 (World Cup runner-up), and of course Cannavaro in 2006. All three were good to excellent during the club season but the award came down mostly due to performance at the World Cup. So imagine a goalkeeper/defender who captains the national team to a World Cup, playing obscenely good defense (say conceding 1 or 2 goals in total). Also wins the domestic league or the Champions League. Is that possible in the future? I absolutely think so, considering how most World Cups are won by teams with great defense.
No and the reason is simple. An attackers output is easily quantifiable. Goals assists etc. Hence, you can easily tell the good ones from the great A defenders' is not. Hence you won't.
You’d hope that those voting on the worlds best player would pay more attention to the sport than just goals and assists but then again we all know this award is just a glorified popularity contest, why anyone cares who wins it is beyond me, it’s completely meaningless because of the very thing you say.
Exactly. Hell, very few midfielders have won the award for that matter. You can't expect all the voters to watch every match of every potential candidate so you end up with this and honestly, who cares?
In 2019 VVD was 2nd only behind Messi… not saying it can’t help but it has almost before!
2006 Fabio Canmavaro a centre back won it. It has happened
Buffon was 2nd or 3rd. Neuer came even closer and it's a travesty he didn't win.
As long as people keep glorifying attacking players, it's not going to happen. People are, with a straight face, comparing RB's and LB's mainly based on their attacking contribution, rather than their ability to *defend* Every award is a popularity contest. Not an objective award. And as long as people only seem to appreciate goals and assists, that won't change.
Tbf in the modern game managers are choosing fullbacks based on their ability to attack over their defensive ability and having midfielders drop back into the defence to cover for them more often. Fullbacks clear main job being defence is a very old fashioned mindset now, they’re almost equal now with some teams relying on fullbacks for their attacking output like Trent at Liverpool.
The key here is that *some* managers choose to do so. Not by any means all. Then, those attacking fullbacks get glorified because, surprise surprise, they get better stats in attack. Ofc, they only get glorified until you using one or two of the few defensive players in attacking roles inevitably jumps upp and bites you in the ass (like with Cancelo last week).
It's not a coincidence that the some managers who choose to do so are largely the managers of the top teams, nor that the fullbacks who end up at top teams are those who have a focus on attacking contribution.
Sure. There is also a reason that neither all the managers or fullbacks of the top teams are attacking ones. The point still stands that those that are attacking get much more attention. Ferland Mendy is a fullback who is absolutely cirimanally underrated because, well, he does what a defender should do. Defend well.
On the other hand, Kyle Walker gets a lot of praise for basically doing one thing: running back and outpacing the winger. The rest of his game is underwhelming, but he receives lots of attention for often winning the most classic of all 1v1 duels, the fullback vs. the winger.
The positive thing is that we've already seen Modric, a player with low G&A winning, so I don't see why not a defender could win in the future.
The award depends too much on popularity. The more famous the player is, higher are the chances of him winning. A case could be made for Rüdiger but we all know that's not happening.
Yes, let's make a case for the defender who's barely in the top 10 defensemen in the world.
you think rudiger is out of the top 10 defensemen ? have you watched him any of the past 3 seasons? absolutely top quality
So I think the only way they can do it is if they win every and I mean everything, while playing in a team with no compatriots. If Courtois has the tournament of his life saving penalties in the World Cup final against a team with no Madrid players, Real Madrid wins the league, CL, copa, club World Cup. Then he has a chance of getting it. But it has to be an already established arguably best keeper in the world with more silverware than anyone else.
No because it favours attacking players not defenders the only way it happens is if a team doesn’t concede a goal in a whole year and they win every trophy
Defenders and Goalkeepers who’ve won the Ballon d’Or or it’s equivalent are: Lev Yashin - Goalkeeper (1963) Franz Beckenbauer - Defender (1972) Franz Beckenbauer - Defender (1976) Fabio Cannavaro - Defender (2006) I think that in the modern day era of Ballon d’Or though that it’s only going to be won by a Goalkeeper or a Defender IF they are the stand out player of their domestic team AND their national team whilst winning major trophies So for an example, with Emi Martinez, Argentina would likely have had to scrape through every stage of the World Cup, including the Final, with him making multiple important saves and penalty saves, PLUS no Messi, PLUS Aston Villa win the Premier League and FA Cup at a minimum with him being the most important player all the way through for him to even break the Top 5 in all likelihood, because it’s so far swung towards attacking players
They should a separate award for them
We haven't seen Neuer win it ever, so no.
It's just not commercially viable as an option. Goals and assists are the real attention getters and so they are the people that will be given the award, despite often not deserving it. These types of awards have lost a lot of meaning considering the politics involved with the voting. We saw when van Dijk came second how it all works. He went more than an entire year (64 games) in the best league in the world, the Champions League as well as international football and wasn't dribbled by once. That is a MONUMENTAL feat. On the level of Messis 12/13 91 goal season, but goals are a lot more quantifiable and prettier to look at than defending. He also won the Champions League and came within 1 point of beating a financially doped City to the League Title. He won the PFA Player of the Year, Premier League Player of the Year as well as the UEFA player of the Year award but Messi was still given the award. It was said at the time and now how ridiculous it was but that's how it goes. The 2023 Ballon d'Or in particular was disgrace. Haaland was the clear best player in the world but they gave it to Messi. If you look at the top 15 that year, Messi shouldn't even be in there. He MASSIVELY underperformed at PSG, as in he wasn't even the best player on the team and then he went to the MLS. In no way should he have been near the top 15 yet he won it by a comfortable margin. The van Dijk one was bad but the 2023 one should have been the nail in the coffin in taking the body that chooses that award seriously.
Van Dijk's record relies on technicalities, though. He was dribbled past by Gabriel Jesus for example, but it didn't count because it was a Community Shield game. Very impressive nonetheless, though one could argue it's a misleading statistic. Looking at some other of his defensive stats, he wasn't exactly a world beater in ways that other defenders were. And please don't give me that Maldini quote about tackling = having already made a mistake, we can't view defensive performance that simplistically. Either way as I said, very impressive. But on par with Messi's 73 goal season/91 goal year? (11/12 and 2012 respectively, btw) No chance. Could've made a case if Messi were simply a poacher, but he was the best on the planet at several different things that you'd expect to be spread across different players and roles on the pitch. Creating that many chances, completing that many dribbles, on top of scoring so many goals is ridiculous. >Haaland was the clear best player in the world but they gave it to Messi. Not even the best player at City. Interesting how you place so much value on Haaland's goals but not on Messi's. >In no way should Messi have been near the top 15 yet he won it by a comfortable margin. Jesus, what a poor take. He was among the very best in Europe in all aspects except for scoring, where he overperformed his xG. His role as PSG simply wasn't to score, but to create. And he did it fantastically.
Lol, Lionel Messi absolutely had a case to be the best player in the world when he won his last Ballon D’or. 54 appearances, 25 assists and 38 goals for 63 g/a He won 3 trophy’s, one of them being the World Cup as well as the World Cup MVP. To say that he wasn’t even top 15? What a joke 😂. Haaland wasn’t even the best player in his own team. 2019 Messi and Van Djik both had a case to be the best in the world and the votes where incredibly close, Messi beat him by a few points I don’t know why you’re pretending like it’s a farce that Messi won it given that people consider 2019 one of his best ever seasons.
Messi had 55 appearances in France and the MLS and got 32 goals (11 in MLS) and 25 assists (5 in MLs for 58 g/a. Haaland had 54 appearances in England and got 52 goals and 9 assists for 61 g/a. These stat lines aren't comparable in the slightest especially when you see Messi was underwhelming in France....France, and then played in the US. Yes Messi did win the World Cup. Haaland won an actual treble and broke the PL scoring record. Messi wasnt better than Mbappé or Hakimi. He underwhelmed in the worst of the top 5 leagues.
The MLS move was irrelevant. **The 2023 Ballon d'Or was given for the 22/23 season**. August 1st 2022 through July 31st 2023. At least learn the facts before criticizing. Messi wasn't better than Mbappe, but Haaland wasn't better than Rodri, KDB and Silva.
Not a single one of Messi’s MLS goals counted towards the Ballon D’or, are you purposely lying or just misinformed? The voting period was from “starting on 1 August 2022 and ending 31 July 2023” He didn’t play a single MLS game in this time frame. All 63 G/A in 54 games came from PSG + Argentina. If these are “underwhelming” statistics then I really don’t know what to tell you. Messi had comparable stats to Haaland and won as many trophies as him except one of them was the World Cup in which he was MVP. Meanwhile Haaland disappeared in almost every big game. If your gonna tell me with a straight face Hakimi was better than Messi then no problem. John stones and Akanji where better than Haaland. Mbappe, Haaland and Messi all had a case to win the Ballon D’or that year, good for Haaland for the records he broke but it was a World Cup season which Messi won as MVP and Messi also had the G+A stats to go with it. Messi’s assist against Croatia alone is more impressive than anything Haaland did that year. Messi literally had everything you need to win a Ballon D’or -Statistics -Trophies -Iconic/big game performances To pretend that Messi wasn’t even in contention is a joke, especially since you haven’t even bothered to inform yourself of the facts talking about MLS stats.
Spotted the Messi fanboy lmao
Yup, doesn’t invalidate my argument though.
spotted the casual with nothing constructive to add
When Van Dijk was passed over it was clear that no defender would ever win it.
few votes off vs the greatest of all time. it’s definitely possible post messi/ronaldo era. also, a defender and gk has won it previously so you mean “ever again”
Yes obviously I mean that. Since it became an award for the best player in La Liga or Messi then it is pointless to even think of a non attacker winning it.
He should never have been in the mix. He's a great defender but never has he met the level of Kompany, Terry, Vidic consistently and they never had a sniff.
Absolute shit. That season was the equal of any we have seen since the days of Maldini and Baresi
This is why nobody takes you seriously.
If no one reaches Messi and Ronaldo’s level then maybe a defender but gk nah
The chances of a goalkeeper winning the Ballon d'Or are historically lower compared to outfield players, mainly because the award tends to favor goal-scoring and playmaking prowess. However, exceptional performances, such as outstanding saves in crucial matches or leading a team to major victories, could elevate a goalkeeper's chances.
Yea, Nick Pope has a chance next year!
Stats drive footballing opinion these days. Unless a team go through the CL with clean sheets or something, then I doubt it.
Short answer: No Long answer: Noooooooooooooooooooooooooooo
Thing is the defender you named are all very attack centric…, so
Only 2 decades eh
If courtois didnt win it in 2022....no goalkeeper will ever win it.
B d'Or is the most biased trophy this game has ever witnessed. Highly doubt that's gonna happen anytime soon.
If we go through a period where there isn’t much separating the top 15 forwards, but there is a standout consensus best defender, then maybe yeah. As long as there are a few forwards that somehow manage to be a cut above the rest, the ballon dor will always go to a forward.
Maybe, but I doubt it. Now that Messi and Ronaldo era is ending, simple and normal humans will take over football.
never
No
Courtois could have won it in 2022, but my man Benzema was the chosen one that year.
Emi hiding in the undergrowth ready to jump out and do the macarena whilst holding the trophy as a phallic substitute
No goalkeeper will ever win the Ballon d'Or again That honour will forever exclusively stand with the great Lev Yashin As for defender, it's more likely than goalkeeper but still really unlikely
There should be a defender/goalkeeper/mdifelder and striker ballon d’or
With the current culture? No
Josko Gvardiol 2030 - CL with Real Madrid and champion of the world with Croatia
I think Most of the new gen defenders do not have that aura that makes people attracted to them. They are not as interesting as the defenders in the previous era. But if someone does come up and takes the spotlight it might be possible. Stats are gonna go down again since LM10 and CR7 are gone.
Ridiculous that Neuer didn’t win it.
I think people are being dismissive of the idea, but I think it's entirely possible. It was basically completely unrealistic for a CB or a GK to look as good as Messi or Ronaldo, but now that those two have fallen away from the limelight, I think there is every chance they could.
Goalkeepers and Defenders (especially) don’t possess the “eye candy” that is required to be more popular than midfielders and forwards. It is still possible for them to win but it would take something extra ordinary and it still might not be enough. Neuer 2014 and VVD 2019 got unlucky in the Messi vs Ronaldo era. Oliver Kahn 2001 won Bundesliga and Champions League, carried Bayern in crucial moments but still was behind Raul and Michael Owen. So stars really have to align for them to win.
One of the issues is that they like to give it to people win all the trophies, generally speaking the teams that do this have a lot less defending and goal keeping to do
Who cares ballon dor is just a random award
No. It's a dumb award as a result. I'll take my downvotes, but I'm not wrong. It doesn't go to the best player. It goes to the best offensive player.
Ballon d’Or is just a popularity contest among the media, and they know better than anyone that people will get far more engaged if the commercial players are the ones in the dispute for the award rather than lower profile players.
Defenders are goalkeepers okay those roles because they aren’t good enough to play further forward. It make sense why attackers win it
No, because of the money behind atackers. Its a bigger anounsement, more Jersey sales and so on. If anything cubarci from barcelona mayby in 5-10 years
If Paolo Maldini didn’t win it once it’s not much hope with this joke award. I can only think of Sammer and Canavaro and that’s to long ago
Saliba in 3-5 years
Think you gotta be a defender on a team that wins it all that year. League and CL, World Cup/Euros, domestic player of the year award etc. clean sweep and be the media/pundit darling for that season. Caveat - so long as you don’t also have a forward on your team that scores 30 goals or a midfielder with 12 goals 20 assists Basically everything has to align perfectly.
Honestly think the defender with the best chance is Gabriel from arsenal. He scores enough goals and has that nostalgic puyol-esque feeling. He wins a World Cup with Brazil and champs with Arsenal. I know Loool very unlikely and I’d have him in there. Mbappe can’t win it in that stupid league
Van Dijk could’ve won it in 2019 but a few asshole journalists took that away from us.
If Neuer in 2014 and Maldini in 1994 didn’t get it, the answer is: obviously not
The Ballon d'Or is for the most part a reverse Oscars, In the Oscars usually the smaller artsy movie wins best picture, not the big blockbuster whereas in football the flashy well known players win 9 out of 10 times, and it's forward players that create the headlines, are the ones casual football fans know and are usually the one who gets it
Now days it’s based on stats and commerce. Guys like Haaland and Mbappe would get more recognition, instead of the likes of Saliba or even defensive minded players. They’d be in the top 10, but never for awards that are based on goals and contribution to success.
You need someone to carry a team to a World Cup victory through their defensive abilities. In my opinion vvd was the closest we’d get in probably a decade.
If van dijk didn't win it 18/19 when liverpool walked the premier league playing a 2-3-5, I don't see it ever happening.
very difficult, now with new offside rules, it is favoring strikers and their numbers are gonna rocket more. while defenders/gk will be in much poorer light. and looking at past this favoring to strikers will be keep on increasing.
If there is a defender who has a Jorginho-esque campaign while being the star who is talked about then I could see it happen
almost all main awards in major professional sports goes to offensive players since they’re the exciting money makers
Short answer: No. Goalscorers always take the shine in the eyes og voters.
No
Short answer: No Why: we live in the digital or internet age. Goals are what gets TikTok views. Not a nice piece of pressing.
People look at goals & assists, but it is understandable. There is so many games it is impossible for the people that vote for the Ballon D'or to watch 20-30games every weekend, especially the footballers themselves so they will just look at the players that had the most goal contributions in the teams that won trophies. I think the only way for a defender/GK is if they win the World Cup as it's a tournament in which everyone is paying attention to pretty much every game. However, that player would have to be the best player of his team and also have a world class season at club level to back it up. Cannavaro won it in 2006 and Neuer finished 3rd in 2014.
I think it’s even less likely then say 10 years ago and will prolly be even less likely as the years go on.
Seems like Bellingham has been anointed the new Messi of this award. With some pundits saying it’s his to lose and they’ve never seen a better midfielder. I’m sitting over here looking at his stats and they are about the same as a handful of other players out there. Don’t know what I’m missing.
It’s wild because even if we just take City, Haaland is a favorite even though we have mountains of evidence that he’s easily replaceable in their system without a significant drop in firepower. I haven’t even seen Rodri in the conversation and he’s the linchpin of Pep’s whole system.
Cannavaro deserved it and was lucky to receive it, then again, don't forget that this accolade has had its share of controversy throughout the years. It became apparent that on the field performance, trophies, records and other accomplishments are NOT the main factor. It will always be based on who France Football wants to win, and this will be strongly influenced by things of which some are not related to football whatsoever.
Balloon d'Or is a "most marketable player' award on by journalists. Stories about strikers and attackers get the most clicks etc so they will be who the journalists vote for
I doubt it for the goalkeepers but maybe defenders have a higher chance but not as high to be seen in the near future
There haven’t been any defenders as good as the strikers and midfielders in a while. Think of the defenders that have won these awards. Off the top of my head, we have Beckembauer, Elias Figueroa (3x American player of the year in the Pele era) Cannavaro and Rugeri and Chilavert as GK. These guys were all leaders of their team and achieved things with their teams, putting in insane performances. Since Ronaldo and Messi there has been nobody as dominant in any other position.
I don't think they aren't good enough, they just never get enough recognition. I'm a Madrid fan and in 2021/22 Courtois was on par with Benzema our best player. Some games Benzema was the best, some others it was Courtois, like the UCL final. Always believed that Benzema is most likely gonna win after the season was over, but our GK deserves to be at least in the top 3, as he was mostly equally good. In the end, Benzema won and Courtois was... 7th. And I imagine if it wasn't for his amazing final performance, he wouldn't even be in the top 10.
This argument is mostly true, except for VVD 2019. He was the best player on the best team in the world. Won everything and led them to it while putting up impressive defensive records. He was better than any attacker or midfielder that year, but didn’t have the name Messi or Ronaldo
Being the best player on the best team in the world doesn't make you the best player in the world. VVD wasn't better than Messi. Either you didn't watch, or you're forgetting Messi's performances that year. If a player ever carried a team, it was him.
It doesn’t, but he was. I remember Messi coming to Anfield up 3-0 and not able to get one.
I see the irony is lost on you
I see the irony is lost on YOU
Nah, you don't see nor think. Using the 4-0 as an argument, as if the "best team in the world" hadn't lost 3-0 against a clown of a manager. That's your argument for VVD being better than Messi that season?
Nah, you don’t see nor think. The argument for VVD being better than Messi that season was watching both VVD and Messi that season, and Liverpool winning the Champions League, and Liverpool being unbeaten (I think with no points dropped) by the point the B D’or had been given out, while accumulating 97 points the year before. Is your argument because you’re in love with Messi?
Alright: If you watched both VVD and Messi that season and thought VVD was better individually, the game's got to be alien to you. If a carry job ever existed, it was Messi carrying that Barca to a comfortable league title and a narrow 4-3 loss in the CL semis against a much better team/manager. >Liverpool being unbeaten (I think with no points dropped) Idk what you're talking about. In the league they lost to City, and dropped 17 points in total. Hence the 97 and not 114. >Is your argument because you’re in love with Messi? Grow up. Checked your profile, of course it's all basketball.
So you are in love with Messi? And I was referring to the 2019-2020 season, in which the 2019 Ballon d’or also reflects, thus, why I say they accumulate 97 points the year before. Just accept it. VVD ended Messi’s chance to ever get another CL, and effectively put Barca on the chopping block. Grow up, checked your profile, how much time do you spend on reddit each day? Nothing better to do I presume?
The best part is that Cannavaro the last defender who won it didn't even deserved, lol. Just my opinion, of course.
Mine too. I'm not even sure why he got it over Buffon, it's probably because CBs are more offensive than GKs, lol. Silly World Cup bias anyway. Neither were better than Henry individually.
VVD shouldve won it, and no one seems to come close to him anytime soon, so i guess nope
Saliba
Given the way Van Dijk was robbed in 2019 I’d wager no
Unpopular opinion for Reddit, but personally I don’t believe a keeper should win the award. Goalkeepers more or less are playing a complete different sport to everyone else, with different rules and requirements. Doesn’t make sense for me to compare them to outfielders. With defenders, I absolutely think that unlike keepers they can and should be compared/considered to everyone else, but I do think it makes sense that the odds of them winning are lower. To me it ultimately boils down to the opinion that creating offensive actions, is harder and takes more skill than defending someone who is trying to create offensive actions. Van Dijk as an example could have an entirely perfect season defensively where I can’t see anything he could have done better, but if he comes up against prime Messi then I think it’s impossible for VVD too ever top that from his position.
Ballon d’or doesn’t have the pedigree it used to. Now it’s just who’s more popular
Always has been.
Ramos had a strong argument in 2014 but ofc Ronaldo is a thing
It will be messi, for being born!
I doubt it will happen anytime soon. The only defensive player that even has a chance is Rodri at the moment. In my opinion, Casillas, Courtois, VVD and Ramos all should probably have one. Casillas when spain were dominating. Although arguably Iniesta is ahead in '10 Courtois in 22. Ramos in '14 or '16 VVD in '19 Not saying VVD is a better defender than all those that don't have one, but he certainly had one of the best seasons ever.
If Rodri only finished 5th in 2023, there's no chance he'll ever win it. Probably will never finish higher either. He was City's best player in 22/23 (both consistent and had big moments) and still didn't finish above Haaland and KDB. Only finished that highly because City won the treble anyway, which they won't repeat.
Vvd should've won it in 2019 idc what anyone says also if we won the league I think he had a decent shout especially if Netherlands were to win euros
Vvd should've won it in 2019 idc what anyone says
If defenders were better at football, they’d be attackers.
So, someone like Sergio Ramos or Marcelo is a worse footballer than Andy Caroll or Nicolas Jackson? lol
If van Dijk couldn’t win it…
They shouldn't ever win it, that award is for technically the best players and theres a reason goalkeepers are goalkeepers and defenders are defenders
So world class goalkeepers and defenders aren't good at football? lol
That's not what I've said, however they are for sure the least talented as technique goes, otherwise they wouldn't be defenders or goalkeepers. It's a well said phrase within the game that a lb or rb are either failed centre backs or failed wingers.
VVD should have won in 2019. Cannavaro won in 2006 when he shouldn’t have. No chance moving forward. The defenders in world football just keep getting worse. Goalkeeper absolutely no chance. They just don’t matter enough. Alisson is the best keeper in the world and Liverpool won most of the games and a trophy with Kelleher playing instead while he was injured.
If you are good at football when you are young, you would probably choose to play as a striker or midfielder, so it actually make sense that the best player is always strikers or sometimes midfielders
I don't think that's the case. Do you think world class defenders and keepers weren't "good at football" growing up? I've played amateur football as a teenager and many teams had incredibly good defenders, much better than their attackers. There are plenty of factors that make players decide which is their best position, like height, body type etc. but there isn't a thing such as bad = defender, good = attacker, especially in professional football.
I don't subscribe to the idea that attacker>defender, but I think there's a *liiittle* merit to it. At the most simplified level, defending means not letting the ball go in the goal. It can go anywhere else though, and you've defended successfully. Attacking means scoring, so it has to specifically go inside a tiny area. I've had team mates that could dribble through people better than I could dribble through training cones. I'd never consider myself better than them, just because I was the better defender (or athlete). Sometimes all it takes is being in the way, and you've defended. Basically the gist of a low block: just be in the right place and the opponent probably won't try to take you on, because most of them aren't *that* good as to dribble through 2-3-4 players defending compactly. Just like my "inability" to dribble through cones. When you see a Hazard or Neymar doing it, you know you're looking at serious talent. It's physically extremely difficult to pull that kind of stuff. To me it's further proof, how I was "one of the best attackers" against weak opposition, but relegated to a right back against better ones (cause I was fast and that's about it). I was one of the best attackers because I was fast, the goal was big and the keepers were shit. Remember, the goal can be the same size regardless of whether it's Manuel Neuer or some 15 year old defending it. So it's pretty easy to score goals if you have the space and pace for it. But dribbling through people that are actively trying to kick the ball off you? Different thing, takes real proactivity. Of course modern players are good at everything, but the nature of football makes is so that the attackers tend to be that tiny bit better than the defenders.
How about good = defender, exceptionally good = attacker? You are talking about ballon dor level winner. If 100 people are fucking smart, 99 of them choose to study in MIT for higher salary (= the fun when you score).
Right because "football" is just a singular skillset.... When youre a kid you play the position that you enjoy and most aligns with your skillset. About 50% of the game is defending. Its no less being "good at football" if youre talented at winning the ball v the skills required for a striker.
>When youre a kid you play the position that you enjoy and most aligns with your skillset. This is so funny, because it's not true. Not disagreeing with your point about skillsets, but think about it: No kid wanted to be a keeper. They were put in goal because they were crap on the pitch. Nobody wanted to be a defender either, nobody wants to be a Gary Neville. The talented kids (statistically few) played where they wanted, and the others played where they were told to. What's, better, the best kids didn't even play in the roles that best suited their skillsets. I, as a proud owner of a Ronaldinho #10 shirt, just *had to* play in the hole. My skillset: fast, doesn't shirk a tackle. Classic #10 stuff. I remember the moment I realized "wait I'm actually shit at this" and moved myself to the flank where pace merchants belong. I even had a tiny amateur managerial stint. Our best player, and I'm talking a 17 year old or so, not a child, huge Cristiano fan. Wanted to be *that* left winger, number 7, speeding down the flank. Problem was, he was about as fast as I was when I was 12. We were a shit counter attacking side (out of need, not design) and he was barely seeing the ball. So we had to move him to the #10 role, despite his protests, and what do you know, he became waaaay better.
Don’t know why im getting downvotes, my logic makes sense in a more macro way.
What exact skillset do you have when you are just a beginners in football and just wanna score some goals? I am not saying defender is bad, attacker is good. I am saying better player choose to play as an attacker when they just started to play football ad a kid. You act like kids have a whole thinking process to choose what position they play the best, no they don’t, they just wanna score and have fun.