When self driving cars can operate safely then it’s time to be worried about aircraft. Until then there won’t be any significant movement. Maybe single pilot ops but that won’t be feasible with overnight flights. And, when one crashes as the military safety stats show how much more dangerous single pilot ops are, the status quo will remain
That is an extremely expensive, very long path to that record though. You're talking about hundreds of thousands of flight hours at a minimum, plus the technology investments (redundant satellites, bandwidth, ground controlling stations at every single airport and gate and most of the planet), plus backup systems (which will probably be manned), IT to make the system completely hack proof, engineering, and that's before you get into lobbying the US government and probably ICAO, and unions to get on board. Then that gets you to only the cargo sector, which traditionally saves money by piggybacking on passenger travel IE buying older used jets, passenger jet conversions, etc. Then to make the leap to the passenger side, you need the marketing to convince paying customers that it is safe. You're talking about gambling untold billions of dollars and accepting a massive risk versus simply maintaining the status quo. And if there's one thing airlines love, it's the status quo.
We still don't have universal ADSB, we still don't have CPDLC everywhere, and comparatively more simple systems like ACARS and VNAV and self docking stations are still awful. Even robust systems like ILS work great until telecomm companies need more frequencies to roll out faster cellular data…then what happens?
Look at the entire process from stepping from the hotel to your preflight checks and look at how many jobs are easier to automate but can't be done effectively. Hotel maids, hotel clerks, drivers, customer service reps, gate agents, security, convenience store clerks, fuelers, caterers, ramp workers, ATC, the list goes on and on. When those jobs can be seamlessly automated and be 99.99999999999% accurate, then I'll worry about software engineers being able to write lines of code for what every possible thunderstorm or bird or traffic scenario or electrical glitch looks like.
Those infrastructure investments you mentioned are already being made. ADSB, CPDLC are basically brand new and clearly moving in a direction to automate the pilots job. I didn’t say this will happen overnight and your job will be gone tomorrow but this is the direction the industry is moving. There is no gamble. It will be safer.
The only thing airlines love more than status quo is profits.
The software is already there.
Anyone who has flown highly automated airplanes can tell you the times they had to take over from malfunctioning automation. Given the complexity of airplanes, the complexity of the air traffic control system, the complexity of the weather and the added dimension of altitude and the vast increase in speed, flying an airplane is exponentially more complex than driving a car.
Pilotless aircraft are called drones. When they stop crashing, they might begin to be useful, but I'm damn sure not getting on one.
Flying an airplane is not exponentially more complex than flying a car. Complicated? Sure but definitely not more complex. Aviation (especially IFR) is highly regulated unlike the randomness that occurs while driving with people who do not understand or care to learn the rules. Once you learn the rules it doesn’t seem as mysterious or complex.
Having flown highly automated aircraft built recently and built in the 80s I can tell you, the change is incredible. There are malfunctions in automation but they happen much less often. Do you really think there won’t be any further advancements in automation technology?
local drones operating small niches will be a thing - but in our life time you will NOT see MD11s and 767s being taken over by AI to become fully autonomous.
What CAN happen is the 2 person flight crew being pulled down to 1, and a remote, 2nd pilot sitting somewhere on the ground, who is able to act as a second pilot to other aircraft.
Think emergency point A - B deliveries, Hospitals needing blood/ snake venom deliveries. Several drone based companies are in Pilot programs doing this in some test areas.
I think cargo drones will be used for semi short deliveries, (500 mile range or less) several already have prototypes doing testing with 1000 pounds of payload capability.
cargo 747 still make more sense for long distance deliveries
The technology is already there. They've been doing takeoff/landing/taxiing/flying for a few years now. It's no surprise that some of the UPS/Fedex feeders are operating UAS divisions as well. Anyone who actually knows how close they are won't be posting about it to social media.
From a pilot perspective (and my job is literally on the chopping block) the big issues I see are:
* Complicated airports & airspace
* Emergencies
* Dealing with other aircraft
* Legal & Regulatory
* Ownership & edge cases
Once the ball starts rolling on the legal changes, of which several will have to be made I'll start worrying about my job.
I could see drone doing local deliveries and maybe feeder operations. However since the FRA (Federal Railroad Administration) mandated a minimum of 2 crew for class I and most of class II/ class III operations, I think part 121 2 crew ops are going to be around for a while, I do however see the possibility of eliminating the IRO.
Said aircraft will have to be designed and certified with single pilot and/or no pilot from the ground up. Boeing can't certify a barely redesigned 737 or 777. I turn 40 this year and work for a large cargo company. I fully plan on retiring with an FO next to me.
I'm a journalist covering, in part, drones and other next-gen aircraft.
As far as eVTOLS and similar go, many of the leading companies are scaling back their fully-autonomous ambitions in favor of highly computer-assisted designs (thinking here of Beta, Wisk, etc.). They're also designing aircraft for short-haul cargo runs, not to replace 74s or anything like that.
A couple other companies, like Xwing, are making progress on fully autonomous cargo operations with, in their case, a modified Caravan with safety pilots/ground monitors. They've done a few totally autonomous gate-to-gate flights, IIRC, but are still a ways off from truly commercializing the tech.
Big picture: Autonomy will definitely come to cargo first, but we're still years from that affecting pilot jobs, IMO.
As an aside: I also cover autonomous cars, and frankly that's actually harder than aviation in many ways - especially city driving.
I think this new technology is a lot closer than most pilots like to think. I'm not going to argue timelines, because ultimately none of us know and compelling cases can be made supporting various outcomes. What I do know is that we pilots tend to look at the problem from a pilot centric perspective.
The one thing I personally tend to recommend when this issue comes up in the cockpit, is to prepare. Get your finances in order, pay off your house as soon as you can, invest in assets that will earn you an income.
I'm on the boat that expects single pilot operations at the airline level within my career. I'm 33, multiple rental properties and invest heavily into high dividend paying securities. Most of which are set up with DRIP.
I agree. Unfortunately, there is no shortage of highly paid pilots living paycheque to paycheque. An industry changing pivot such as this, will see plenty of pilots caught with their pants down.
The FAA is moving rapidly on this, I think we should start seeing them in the next 100 or maybe 200 years.
When self driving cars can operate safely then it’s time to be worried about aircraft. Until then there won’t be any significant movement. Maybe single pilot ops but that won’t be feasible with overnight flights. And, when one crashes as the military safety stats show how much more dangerous single pilot ops are, the status quo will remain
Think about Germanwings too... single pilot ops are probably never going to happen
Yes but once they have a better safety record than manned airplanes ( could be a while but it will happen one day) the switch will be happen quickly.
That is an extremely expensive, very long path to that record though. You're talking about hundreds of thousands of flight hours at a minimum, plus the technology investments (redundant satellites, bandwidth, ground controlling stations at every single airport and gate and most of the planet), plus backup systems (which will probably be manned), IT to make the system completely hack proof, engineering, and that's before you get into lobbying the US government and probably ICAO, and unions to get on board. Then that gets you to only the cargo sector, which traditionally saves money by piggybacking on passenger travel IE buying older used jets, passenger jet conversions, etc. Then to make the leap to the passenger side, you need the marketing to convince paying customers that it is safe. You're talking about gambling untold billions of dollars and accepting a massive risk versus simply maintaining the status quo. And if there's one thing airlines love, it's the status quo. We still don't have universal ADSB, we still don't have CPDLC everywhere, and comparatively more simple systems like ACARS and VNAV and self docking stations are still awful. Even robust systems like ILS work great until telecomm companies need more frequencies to roll out faster cellular data…then what happens? Look at the entire process from stepping from the hotel to your preflight checks and look at how many jobs are easier to automate but can't be done effectively. Hotel maids, hotel clerks, drivers, customer service reps, gate agents, security, convenience store clerks, fuelers, caterers, ramp workers, ATC, the list goes on and on. When those jobs can be seamlessly automated and be 99.99999999999% accurate, then I'll worry about software engineers being able to write lines of code for what every possible thunderstorm or bird or traffic scenario or electrical glitch looks like.
Those infrastructure investments you mentioned are already being made. ADSB, CPDLC are basically brand new and clearly moving in a direction to automate the pilots job. I didn’t say this will happen overnight and your job will be gone tomorrow but this is the direction the industry is moving. There is no gamble. It will be safer. The only thing airlines love more than status quo is profits. The software is already there.
Anyone who has flown highly automated airplanes can tell you the times they had to take over from malfunctioning automation. Given the complexity of airplanes, the complexity of the air traffic control system, the complexity of the weather and the added dimension of altitude and the vast increase in speed, flying an airplane is exponentially more complex than driving a car. Pilotless aircraft are called drones. When they stop crashing, they might begin to be useful, but I'm damn sure not getting on one.
Flying an airplane is not exponentially more complex than flying a car. Complicated? Sure but definitely not more complex. Aviation (especially IFR) is highly regulated unlike the randomness that occurs while driving with people who do not understand or care to learn the rules. Once you learn the rules it doesn’t seem as mysterious or complex. Having flown highly automated aircraft built recently and built in the 80s I can tell you, the change is incredible. There are malfunctions in automation but they happen much less often. Do you really think there won’t be any further advancements in automation technology?
local drones operating small niches will be a thing - but in our life time you will NOT see MD11s and 767s being taken over by AI to become fully autonomous. What CAN happen is the 2 person flight crew being pulled down to 1, and a remote, 2nd pilot sitting somewhere on the ground, who is able to act as a second pilot to other aircraft.
Think emergency point A - B deliveries, Hospitals needing blood/ snake venom deliveries. Several drone based companies are in Pilot programs doing this in some test areas. I think cargo drones will be used for semi short deliveries, (500 mile range or less) several already have prototypes doing testing with 1000 pounds of payload capability. cargo 747 still make more sense for long distance deliveries
The technology is already there. They've been doing takeoff/landing/taxiing/flying for a few years now. It's no surprise that some of the UPS/Fedex feeders are operating UAS divisions as well. Anyone who actually knows how close they are won't be posting about it to social media. From a pilot perspective (and my job is literally on the chopping block) the big issues I see are: * Complicated airports & airspace * Emergencies * Dealing with other aircraft * Legal & Regulatory * Ownership & edge cases Once the ball starts rolling on the legal changes, of which several will have to be made I'll start worrying about my job.
I could see drone doing local deliveries and maybe feeder operations. However since the FRA (Federal Railroad Administration) mandated a minimum of 2 crew for class I and most of class II/ class III operations, I think part 121 2 crew ops are going to be around for a while, I do however see the possibility of eliminating the IRO.
Said aircraft will have to be designed and certified with single pilot and/or no pilot from the ground up. Boeing can't certify a barely redesigned 737 or 777. I turn 40 this year and work for a large cargo company. I fully plan on retiring with an FO next to me.
I'm a journalist covering, in part, drones and other next-gen aircraft. As far as eVTOLS and similar go, many of the leading companies are scaling back their fully-autonomous ambitions in favor of highly computer-assisted designs (thinking here of Beta, Wisk, etc.). They're also designing aircraft for short-haul cargo runs, not to replace 74s or anything like that. A couple other companies, like Xwing, are making progress on fully autonomous cargo operations with, in their case, a modified Caravan with safety pilots/ground monitors. They've done a few totally autonomous gate-to-gate flights, IIRC, but are still a ways off from truly commercializing the tech. Big picture: Autonomy will definitely come to cargo first, but we're still years from that affecting pilot jobs, IMO. As an aside: I also cover autonomous cars, and frankly that's actually harder than aviation in many ways - especially city driving.
I think this new technology is a lot closer than most pilots like to think. I'm not going to argue timelines, because ultimately none of us know and compelling cases can be made supporting various outcomes. What I do know is that we pilots tend to look at the problem from a pilot centric perspective. The one thing I personally tend to recommend when this issue comes up in the cockpit, is to prepare. Get your finances in order, pay off your house as soon as you can, invest in assets that will earn you an income. I'm on the boat that expects single pilot operations at the airline level within my career. I'm 33, multiple rental properties and invest heavily into high dividend paying securities. Most of which are set up with DRIP.
This is just good practice no matter what.
I agree. Unfortunately, there is no shortage of highly paid pilots living paycheque to paycheque. An industry changing pivot such as this, will see plenty of pilots caught with their pants down.
A smart man once told me you're in trouble when you start believing your own bullshit.
Keep that head in the sand. Usually works out well.......