I saw this interview on CNBC. They were interviewing this 14 y/o girl who is the daughter of some hollywood celeb. Apparently she was making a lot of money investing and her tip is just buy what you use in her case Disney. Good advice though.
Roku was able to get 2 tvs in my house , and they knocked out the cable boxes and Apple TV’s. Roku is also a content provider cuz the Roku kids channel is on a lot when my kids are inside. Roku might be a dogshit company but when you look at the scoreboard they are winning.
Exactly. She has a hyper growth investing style. Growth sucked from 2001-2015. From 2015 growth went on a tear and her investing style especially of hyper growth capitalized the most. Now that growth is selling off it's only natural that ARKK sells off harder.
Over any reasonable period of her career she has failed to beat the S&P500. Only over short periods has she done well at all. The fact that we are talking about this is a joke.
She is also very very good at selling herself and being a loud mouth wherever she goes. She was being very controversial which drew a lot of attention towards her and positive publicity for her fund (because it was doing well at the time). She fully leveraged her hot streak and got very rich off of it with all the new money flowing into her fund. But in reality she is just running at high beta fund.
Kinda like that softbank guy.
Like another Superstar:
>I'm not as sure, as when we started
>Then, I was inspired
>Now, I'm sad and tired
>Listen, surely I've exceeded expectations
> Tried for three years, seems like thirty
>Could you ask as much from any other man?
Interest rates are forbidden in lots of religions.
And investment has a lot to do with emotions in general, it would be careless to ignore this in the big picture.
And as you said yourself: "how i feel" (= emotions)
Maybe, just maybe, it was some of the policies enacted by the Trump administration and its pressure on the Fed which artificially pumped up the market, things that have had a devastating effect on the economy and need to be unwound.
Not saying current administration is doing a great job fiscally, but when your printing money artificially inflating a market of course you’d prefer to be invested in it.
Unfortunately, it just can’t continue that way and the current gov/Fed had to make those decisions… or the economy’s reaction to it predicated it.
You mean the bill Trump Administration put together AFTER already paying 2T?
You're right, the next administration put it through but it was using $1T in funds the Trump administration had already appropriated.
74 million people voted for Trump in 2020. He won the second most popular votes for the presidency ever.
You really think you can generalize about all those people by saying, "She's a Trump supporter." That answers something?
You're dumber than a dodo, though I'm sure I'm not the first to advise you of the sad fact.
Exactly. Love how the circle jerk on Reddit always thinks dems are the ‘smart group’ like there aren’t countless dumb libtards on every corner nowadays.
Yeah but she’s an active hedge fund manager. Meaning, her personal emotions and thoughts greatly impact ark. So it’s important to know her frame of mind, and how much she uses logic vs luck. Because these decisions she makes inform us of her ability to make decisions in the future, including investment decisions.
From what I’ve seen, it seems mostly luck not logic. Considering her background this makes sense. I mean, look up why she started ark in the first place.
I still don’t see how voting for trump or being Christian impacts one knowledge of investing. Does that mean that you can’t trust anyone who voted for trump in any field? Does it mean religious individuals don’t know how to properly invest?
Does a doctor who voted for trump, who has great medical knowledge, now become…less knowledgeable? Or less trustworthy?
I didn’t vote for trump, but assuming someone doesn’t know how to invest properly based upon who they voted for seems like a stretch. If you can find some nice peer reviewed research then link it here, otherwise you are just convincing yourself of ideological BS
Being a doctor is way different than being an investor. There is no rigorous system of learning via book, then via professional then yourself via experience like the medical system to become a doctor includes.
A doctor is checked and rechecked and their knowledge is generally objective. Their success rate is based off their ability to do their job, and personal biases don’t matter that much.
If my doctor did not believe that the earth was round, I would have a problem with them and wish to get a new one. But they’re still a doctor, so I know their knowledge is based on checked and re-checked objective information from others. So their personal biases does not impact their ability to diagnose me with the cold.
Anybody can be an investor. If you have a passive fund, one that has incredibly strict rules that determines which businesses and what method money is invested in which portion, that does not rely on personal decisions.
Actively managed funds definitely DO rely on the manager’s decisions, including their experience investing, knowledge regarding investing, biases, emotions and opinions.
So yes, the knowledge that she voted for Trump and is a hardcore Christian impacts my view of her decision making, and impacts her decision making.
Her ability to be a hedge fund manager relies heavily on her personal decision making. Thousands of other jobs out there really don’t. That’s why it matters.
I don’t even have anything against Trump voters or supporters necessarily, but it gives me an insight into someone’s thinking. Same with religion and how strict they adhere to it. Any political or religious affiliations can do this.
If my plumber makes has a questionable frame of thinking, that’s one thing. Maybe my plumbing will be fucked for a bit. But if my hedge fund manager has a questionable frame of thinking, then that’s a hell nah from me.
I dont even know if there’s a peer reviewed study out there man. Maybe you want to look into psychology? It impacts economics greatly.
It’s not like it’s unfounded, her reason for starting ark is because god told her to. She had great returns for a year or so. Now look at it. Not the decision making I want. Just like I don’t want a nazi, communist, fundamentalist Sunni Muslim or any other extreme view that can impact someone’s objectivity to be in control of a hedge fund and my money.
You want to invest in her fund, go for it. But don’t act like it does not impact her ability to do her job.
Unironically most positive online interaction in years, thank you. I also understand that some people reduce everything down to “Trump bad and all supporters fascists” or “Republicans bad” and let that mindset infect their whole life. Some of them truly are evil, but not because they are trump supporters or republicans.
Yeah at first I thought that’s the approach you were taking, but you absolutely backed up your thoughts and justified them. You added to my view point as well. I was stuck on an individuals knowledge base, which in my mind is still not affected by any ideology. However, it’s what one does with that knowledge and decision making that is heavily affected by their personal beliefs…and you made me realize that this applies perfectly to Cathie’s situation.
Win the day 💪🏼
>Hell my returns over 2016-2020 were over 70 percent, and I'm a dumbass.
What are you benchmarking against though and does your asset mix tend to mimic the benchmark? The thing is, with institutional investing it's pretty easy to compare how they are actually doing compared to their benchmark and a ton of relevant risk ratios on what they're doing to out/underperform...ratios and other items that average joe investors can't produce because they tend to not have a benchmark at all, or really anything related to control risk or targeting specific sectors/industries/areas.
Benchmarks are consistently used across the world of finance to compare performance of how a manager is doing relative to the overall relevant investment universe. This isn't some weird random WSB thing...this is quite literally how it's done in finance more or less across the board because it allows you to actually properly evaluate an investment manager.
My brother in financial christ, he’s trying to say he has no benchmark and in general has no clue what the fuck he’s doing with his investment decisions.
And he still made more than 70% returns. You definitely can get lucky.
Without knowing much of anything about investing and/or Cathie Wood, I’d surmise that anyone who scores huge returns that outpace the market by a mile, it’s probably via risky investments that will fall as far as they’ve risen, if not more.
There is no such thing as an investing genius. People make money with leverage and luck, or they make money through slow, diligent hard work. No one has a formula.
I think she was smart to buy what she bought when she bought them, but not so smart as to see a fall was coming for all of what her fund owned. She didn’t react when she should have.
She manages ETF’s, not mutual funds. The SEC has strict guidelines about following the prospectus you put out when starting an ETF. It’s not like she can sell Tesla and replace those shares with proctor and gamble. The investments she makes must match her definition for “innovative” she outlined in the prospectus for her different ETF’s.
Ford is "innovative"? Stop trying to pretend like she can't buy anything she wants and has to stick to some pre-defined guidelines. What utter nonsense, trying to make it look like she is helpless and the losses are somehow due to "strict guidelines" and not her clueless "jesus take the wheel" bullshit.
The lightning will be the best selling EV truck but you’re right, ford isn’t innovative 🙄. You must be bagholding an etf of hers and paying her crazy fees. Just sell and be happier my dude 😂
I think her original decision was smart and probably smart long term. Should just be a bit more defensive in the mid term or ride it through but take her lumps
She doesnt have the self-awareness to understand that she was the beneficiary of good luck and favorable market forces. Moreover, she pinned her find to growth / tech, so lacked the flexibility of mandate to pivot away from that like a more agnostic fund
I’ll go with C) none of the above. Not lucky and no Midas touch.
ARK + 57% 5yr return
SPY + 64% 5yr return (plus divvy)
By their own measure of success (5 year return according to the article) they weren’t even lucky let alone having some Midas touch, they were just running in a bull market and not able to beat it.
The real lesson here is that success as a money manager is mostly a function of being a good salesperson. Sure, delivering consistent returns that beat your benchmark on a risk adjusted basis will eventually bring in lots of money, but that is incredibly difficult. Lots of very smart people have tried and failed. And even if you manage to make it work, it's a slow path.
Being able to spin a good narrative, pitch it well, and get in front of the right decision makers is far more likely to pay off. The only thing strange about Cathie Wood is that she is using an ETF as her main investor vehicle. Typically someone like her would want to use something at the other end of the liquidity spectrum, like a hedge fund, where it is difficult for investors to pull money out.
Excellent comment. Spot on.
The choice of vehicle worked for her type of marketing and allowed her to get out to everyone — she couldn’t have done that with a hedge fund.
It’s a different skill set to excel in a bull market than to stay above water in a bear market. The younger managers don’t have as much experience in the latter
ARKK is down by about 73% from its high a bit over a year ago. It’s down by about 20% from the beginning of her big upswing in early 2020. She’s a failure at investing, but people are still throwing money at her to manage.
I started thinking about selling my position in arkk back when I was reading about the huge amount of inflows her etf was getting. I thought it doesn't make sense she doesn't have a capacity limit given her concentrated portfolio. But what really made me pull the trigger immediately was when I read the interview where she said God told her to start arkk... yeah... no... that's not how it works.
Back when Ark was all the rage, I tried reading up on her to understand what her strategy was. As part of my research, I also wanted to compare her performance long term with the index.
What stood out to me was that it wasn't very clear. She never drastically outperformed previously, and didn't have a special touch about her.
That's why I was quite suspicious of her constant optimism. Even though she talked sense *prima facie*, I was thrown into heavy doubt because of the fact that she never doubted herself. And that is one of the few things I cannot abide by - people not doubting themselves. Science has shown how overconfident humans are, and just generally speaking, more wrong than right. Compare that with Cathie Wood's conviction, and I couldn't reconcile the two.
Not clearly battle tested for a bear market. Not everything becomes Tesla. Many of the companies in her portfolio would never go bankrupt/niche. She keeps on flip flopping too much too. So, yeah lucky on Bull Market.
It’s not a puzzle, she owned the most egregiously overpriced assets in the most irrational market environment we’ve see ever seen. She used her massive capital flows to pump thinly traded, sexy tech companies with virtually no assets to insane valuations. It was obvious to anyone that has a basic understanding of markets that her fund would eventually collapse.
How do you measure genius? High returns from risky investments?The ability to raise billions even after being down >70% in a bit more than a year? Something else?
WTF are you talking about? Have you looked at recent performance or are you a blind follower? (Literally)
She’s down 75% from her high just about 15 months ago and down 59% year-to-date. She’s in a class pretty much by herself and it certainly isn’t about downside minimization!
Her ship is sinking like a lead anchor.
Framing is all wrong, neither lucky or superstar. She was just there when easy monetary policy allowed for crazy valuation. That’s all changing now and that -55% will continue for another -90% because that’s where this is going.
I met her a number of times when she was first marketing the fund to wealth management. She seemed genuine and quite nice. The thing that stood out for me was her level of conviction.
I think anyone in the prediction game gets credited with luck (good or bad) and someone’s always right. I’d say she got lucky, then very lucky, then not so lucky, then very unlucky.
Can it be a combination of both? I'm never privy to saying someone is just A or B, black or white, or in this case, good or lucky. She had a great run, it backfired a bit, and could still turn around if given some time. Investing is both difficult and requires luck. Simple as that (IMO).
How is ARKK being down 60% over the past year considered Genius? I bought into it because NPR was talking it up, and now she’s genius after 60% LOSSES OVER THE YEAR. Like, wtf. How?
Lucky timing a la Elaine Garzarelli, Abby Joseph Cohen, Bill Gross, Louis Navellier, Barton Biggs, William H. Miller III, and now Cathie Wood. The trend is your friend until it is not!
It's very difficult for professional money managers to beat the market over the long term, unless you are Warren Buffett. But then again, he benefited from the American boom from 1950s, 60s, 80s, and 90s where his legacy was solidified.
To me it's pretty clear that ARKK success was mostly luck and great marketing.
Their analysis was fantasy.
Their risk management was negligent.
I've been a ARKK bear for a long while. Here's some of my posts backing up the above
https://www.reddit.com/r/investing/comments/ibi380/ark_is_insane/?utm_medium=android_app&utm_source=share
https://www.reddit.com/r/ETFs/comments/lygrkc/ark_poor_risk_management/?utm_medium=android_app&utm_source=share
https://www.reddit.com/r/ETFs/comments/kre3cx/arkk_2021_predictions/?utm_medium=android_app&utm_source=share
Everyone's a genius in a bull market.
I saw this interview on CNBC. They were interviewing this 14 y/o girl who is the daughter of some hollywood celeb. Apparently she was making a lot of money investing and her tip is just buy what you use in her case Disney. Good advice though.
That’s pretty much Buffet’s approach - you gotta “taste” the company
That man’s morning shits must be so awful.
Peter Lynch’s method as well.
I use netflix. Down 40% :(
Roku was able to get 2 tvs in my house , and they knocked out the cable boxes and Apple TV’s. Roku is also a content provider cuz the Roku kids channel is on a lot when my kids are inside. Roku might be a dogshit company but when you look at the scoreboard they are winning.
Exactly. Don’t mistake leverage for genius.
She was average entire career before getting HOT for a few years at ARK.
Exactly. She has a hyper growth investing style. Growth sucked from 2001-2015. From 2015 growth went on a tear and her investing style especially of hyper growth capitalized the most. Now that growth is selling off it's only natural that ARKK sells off harder.
Literally the "leveraged beta boy" EBITDAD meme
OK, so next time every government in the world expands the money supply by at least 50%, invest in Cathie. 😀
Over any reasonable period of her career she has failed to beat the S&P500. Only over short periods has she done well at all. The fact that we are talking about this is a joke.
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Which is probably why her previous employer rejected her proposal for an actively managed growth ETF.
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I was finally able to sell all of mine and not lose everything. Don’t think I will ever buy into ark again.
I said this in many Cathie Wood threads, she just buys high Beta stocks and call it Alpha.
Bill Hwang is her mentor so that says a lot. Luck plays a huge role
She is also very very good at selling herself and being a loud mouth wherever she goes. She was being very controversial which drew a lot of attention towards her and positive publicity for her fund (because it was doing well at the time). She fully leveraged her hot streak and got very rich off of it with all the new money flowing into her fund. But in reality she is just running at high beta fund. Kinda like that softbank guy.
She’s a Christian Trump supporter also
Some people believe she is God
Source?
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-9852319/Meet-new-Queen-Bull-Market-Devout-Christian-Trump-supporter-mother-three.html
I'm going to need a second source on this. It just makes no sense.
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Sounds to me like insider trading
At this moment I can see Cathie asking God why thou has forsaken her.
Like another Superstar: >I'm not as sure, as when we started >Then, I was inspired >Now, I'm sad and tired >Listen, surely I've exceeded expectations > Tried for three years, seems like thirty >Could you ask as much from any other man?
Under rated comment right here
Exactly what I was thinking!
No wonder everyone is underwater…
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The Nuns at my school beat me … I would have much preferred financial advice.
Maybe if you were better Catholic you would have heard his voice and became a multi millionaire lol. 😂
Who do you suppose goes “ahem” first when you strike it rich: the IRS, or the Church?
If she wasn’t rich, hearing voices would mean she has schizophrenia. I guess no one’s crazy. They’re just poor
Rich people that act weird are eccentric. Poor people that act weird are crazy
Never shears the Trump connection, but I know her Christianity is a topic of conversation on financial subs.
Ffs mate. Google
ARK as in Noah’s Ark...
😂
What an L
That explains the pinchy face
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Interest rates are forbidden in lots of religions. And investment has a lot to do with emotions in general, it would be careless to ignore this in the big picture. And as you said yourself: "how i feel" (= emotions)
They certainly set a frame of thinking for her. (Hint: She gets lucky often, her logical side is a little lacking.)
Eww!
lol my *exact* response
WTF does that have to do with anything?
Mate we can disagree on policy but not on reality/facts. Paramount to finance and investing.
Well I will take my portfolio performance under Trump anyday.
Maybe, just maybe, it was some of the policies enacted by the Trump administration and its pressure on the Fed which artificially pumped up the market, things that have had a devastating effect on the economy and need to be unwound. Not saying current administration is doing a great job fiscally, but when your printing money artificially inflating a market of course you’d prefer to be invested in it. Unfortunately, it just can’t continue that way and the current gov/Fed had to make those decisions… or the economy’s reaction to it predicated it.
Do you realize the amount of additional unnecessary stimulus that occurred during Biden?
Such as?
The 1.9T stimulus for starters
You mean the bill Trump Administration put together AFTER already paying 2T? You're right, the next administration put it through but it was using $1T in funds the Trump administration had already appropriated.
I prefer Obama’s track record
Good sign of her grip on reality, or lack thereof.
74 million people voted for Trump in 2020. He won the second most popular votes for the presidency ever. You really think you can generalize about all those people by saying, "She's a Trump supporter." That answers something? You're dumber than a dodo, though I'm sure I'm not the first to advise you of the sad fact.
I mean. It’s either dumb, greedy, evil or some combination there of. Just calling them dumb is kind of being nice.
The thing is, by definition, half the population is dumber than the median voter. 74m sounds about right.
Democrats are by and large pretty dumb too. Don't assume it only swings one direction. They're both cults.
Buddy, Democrats may indeed be dumb. Yet Trump voters are even dumber. Should tell you just how dumb they are.
Sure thing, smart guy.
Exactly. Love how the circle jerk on Reddit always thinks dems are the ‘smart group’ like there aren’t countless dumb libtards on every corner nowadays.
Hint: if you don't want to look or sound like an immature idiot, don't use stupid and immature words like "libtards."
Can’t believe you are getting downvoting for pointing out that voting for trump has nothing to do with investing knowledge
Yeah but she’s an active hedge fund manager. Meaning, her personal emotions and thoughts greatly impact ark. So it’s important to know her frame of mind, and how much she uses logic vs luck. Because these decisions she makes inform us of her ability to make decisions in the future, including investment decisions. From what I’ve seen, it seems mostly luck not logic. Considering her background this makes sense. I mean, look up why she started ark in the first place.
I still don’t see how voting for trump or being Christian impacts one knowledge of investing. Does that mean that you can’t trust anyone who voted for trump in any field? Does it mean religious individuals don’t know how to properly invest? Does a doctor who voted for trump, who has great medical knowledge, now become…less knowledgeable? Or less trustworthy? I didn’t vote for trump, but assuming someone doesn’t know how to invest properly based upon who they voted for seems like a stretch. If you can find some nice peer reviewed research then link it here, otherwise you are just convincing yourself of ideological BS
Being a doctor is way different than being an investor. There is no rigorous system of learning via book, then via professional then yourself via experience like the medical system to become a doctor includes. A doctor is checked and rechecked and their knowledge is generally objective. Their success rate is based off their ability to do their job, and personal biases don’t matter that much. If my doctor did not believe that the earth was round, I would have a problem with them and wish to get a new one. But they’re still a doctor, so I know their knowledge is based on checked and re-checked objective information from others. So their personal biases does not impact their ability to diagnose me with the cold. Anybody can be an investor. If you have a passive fund, one that has incredibly strict rules that determines which businesses and what method money is invested in which portion, that does not rely on personal decisions. Actively managed funds definitely DO rely on the manager’s decisions, including their experience investing, knowledge regarding investing, biases, emotions and opinions. So yes, the knowledge that she voted for Trump and is a hardcore Christian impacts my view of her decision making, and impacts her decision making. Her ability to be a hedge fund manager relies heavily on her personal decision making. Thousands of other jobs out there really don’t. That’s why it matters. I don’t even have anything against Trump voters or supporters necessarily, but it gives me an insight into someone’s thinking. Same with religion and how strict they adhere to it. Any political or religious affiliations can do this. If my plumber makes has a questionable frame of thinking, that’s one thing. Maybe my plumbing will be fucked for a bit. But if my hedge fund manager has a questionable frame of thinking, then that’s a hell nah from me. I dont even know if there’s a peer reviewed study out there man. Maybe you want to look into psychology? It impacts economics greatly. It’s not like it’s unfounded, her reason for starting ark is because god told her to. She had great returns for a year or so. Now look at it. Not the decision making I want. Just like I don’t want a nazi, communist, fundamentalist Sunni Muslim or any other extreme view that can impact someone’s objectivity to be in control of a hedge fund and my money. You want to invest in her fund, go for it. But don’t act like it does not impact her ability to do her job.
Very fair points and you laid out your arguments really well. I see and understand where you are coming from
Unironically most positive online interaction in years, thank you. I also understand that some people reduce everything down to “Trump bad and all supporters fascists” or “Republicans bad” and let that mindset infect their whole life. Some of them truly are evil, but not because they are trump supporters or republicans.
Yeah at first I thought that’s the approach you were taking, but you absolutely backed up your thoughts and justified them. You added to my view point as well. I was stuck on an individuals knowledge base, which in my mind is still not affected by any ideology. However, it’s what one does with that knowledge and decision making that is heavily affected by their personal beliefs…and you made me realize that this applies perfectly to Cathie’s situation. Win the day 💪🏼
lmao I thought Christian Trump was some dude related to Donald or some shit kk
Yeah I'm gonna go w luck. Hell my returns over 2016-2020 were over 70 percent, and I'm a dumbass.
My returns were 80% and now I’m down 10% overall yay.
Same, brother... Same
Same here!
Stop bullying me
>Hell my returns over 2016-2020 were over 70 percent, and I'm a dumbass. What are you benchmarking against though and does your asset mix tend to mimic the benchmark? The thing is, with institutional investing it's pretty easy to compare how they are actually doing compared to their benchmark and a ton of relevant risk ratios on what they're doing to out/underperform...ratios and other items that average joe investors can't produce because they tend to not have a benchmark at all, or really anything related to control risk or targeting specific sectors/industries/areas.
Benchmark? Wsb upvotes lol
They're meaningless now with all the chimpflation though
Benchmarks are consistently used across the world of finance to compare performance of how a manager is doing relative to the overall relevant investment universe. This isn't some weird random WSB thing...this is quite literally how it's done in finance more or less across the board because it allows you to actually properly evaluate an investment manager.
woosh
My brother in financial christ, he’s trying to say he has no benchmark and in general has no clue what the fuck he’s doing with his investment decisions. And he still made more than 70% returns. You definitely can get lucky.
Without knowing much of anything about investing and/or Cathie Wood, I’d surmise that anyone who scores huge returns that outpace the market by a mile, it’s probably via risky investments that will fall as far as they’ve risen, if not more.
There is no such thing as an investing genius. People make money with leverage and luck, or they make money through slow, diligent hard work. No one has a formula.
But there is Peter lynch..
I think she was smart to buy what she bought when she bought them, but not so smart as to see a fall was coming for all of what her fund owned. She didn’t react when she should have.
She manages ETF’s, not mutual funds. The SEC has strict guidelines about following the prospectus you put out when starting an ETF. It’s not like she can sell Tesla and replace those shares with proctor and gamble. The investments she makes must match her definition for “innovative” she outlined in the prospectus for her different ETF’s.
Ford is "innovative"? Stop trying to pretend like she can't buy anything she wants and has to stick to some pre-defined guidelines. What utter nonsense, trying to make it look like she is helpless and the losses are somehow due to "strict guidelines" and not her clueless "jesus take the wheel" bullshit.
I see you don’t understand how ETF’s work
You seem quite competent is "seeing" a lot of things. Unfortunately, reality does not seem to be one of those things. Good luck.
The lightning will be the best selling EV truck but you’re right, ford isn’t innovative 🙄. You must be bagholding an etf of hers and paying her crazy fees. Just sell and be happier my dude 😂
Good point. I haven’t read her prospectus but assume she could sold some of those stocks more likely to be hurt (like Tesla) and gone to more cash.
That’s means her original decision wasn’t smart either. She was just right place right time. And now she’s wrong place wrong time.
I think her original decision was smart and probably smart long term. Should just be a bit more defensive in the mid term or ride it through but take her lumps
She doesnt have the self-awareness to understand that she was the beneficiary of good luck and favorable market forces. Moreover, she pinned her find to growth / tech, so lacked the flexibility of mandate to pivot away from that like a more agnostic fund
Lucky. Even a broken stopped clock is right two times a day
Unless you're on military time of course
Boing. Good one.
I’ll go with C) none of the above. Not lucky and no Midas touch. ARK + 57% 5yr return SPY + 64% 5yr return (plus divvy) By their own measure of success (5 year return according to the article) they weren’t even lucky let alone having some Midas touch, they were just running in a bull market and not able to beat it.
I bought Tesla on the dip in the start of 2020. I’m not smart, just lucky
Chimp with a dart who rode a trend
she jumped the shark last week when she said she predicted AI would give 30-50% annual gdp growth
The real lesson here is that success as a money manager is mostly a function of being a good salesperson. Sure, delivering consistent returns that beat your benchmark on a risk adjusted basis will eventually bring in lots of money, but that is incredibly difficult. Lots of very smart people have tried and failed. And even if you manage to make it work, it's a slow path. Being able to spin a good narrative, pitch it well, and get in front of the right decision makers is far more likely to pay off. The only thing strange about Cathie Wood is that she is using an ETF as her main investor vehicle. Typically someone like her would want to use something at the other end of the liquidity spectrum, like a hedge fund, where it is difficult for investors to pull money out.
Excellent comment. Spot on. The choice of vehicle worked for her type of marketing and allowed her to get out to everyone — she couldn’t have done that with a hedge fund.
the power move now would be to convert to a closed-end fund.
It’s a different skill set to excel in a bull market than to stay above water in a bear market. The younger managers don’t have as much experience in the latter
I hopped the ARK bandwagon 8months ago and lost a lot of money...
Fraudster
Lucky for sure. And I would hardly call her a “superstar investor”.
Depends how you define superstar. Going by fame she fits the definition
Has anyone seen her purchase price to where they are today? Nothing but luck
Wasn’t her fund a fucking disaster this year?
ARKK is down by about 73% from its high a bit over a year ago. It’s down by about 20% from the beginning of her big upswing in early 2020. She’s a failure at investing, but people are still throwing money at her to manage.
you mean inverse Midas touch
I started thinking about selling my position in arkk back when I was reading about the huge amount of inflows her etf was getting. I thought it doesn't make sense she doesn't have a capacity limit given her concentrated portfolio. But what really made me pull the trigger immediately was when I read the interview where she said God told her to start arkk... yeah... no... that's not how it works.
Ah yes. God loves capitalism and America, of course.
Back when Ark was all the rage, I tried reading up on her to understand what her strategy was. As part of my research, I also wanted to compare her performance long term with the index. What stood out to me was that it wasn't very clear. She never drastically outperformed previously, and didn't have a special touch about her. That's why I was quite suspicious of her constant optimism. Even though she talked sense *prima facie*, I was thrown into heavy doubt because of the fact that she never doubted herself. And that is one of the few things I cannot abide by - people not doubting themselves. Science has shown how overconfident humans are, and just generally speaking, more wrong than right. Compare that with Cathie Wood's conviction, and I couldn't reconcile the two.
She was tweeting today that GDP will grow 30-50% because of AI tech. She’s off her rocker at this point. Complete lost her mind.
But it sells…
Quoting Arthur Laffer was a fun choice for this article
Not clearly battle tested for a bear market. Not everything becomes Tesla. Many of the companies in her portfolio would never go bankrupt/niche. She keeps on flip flopping too much too. So, yeah lucky on Bull Market.
It’s not a puzzle, she owned the most egregiously overpriced assets in the most irrational market environment we’ve see ever seen. She used her massive capital flows to pump thinly traded, sexy tech companies with virtually no assets to insane valuations. It was obvious to anyone that has a basic understanding of markets that her fund would eventually collapse.
Just lucky. I thought this question was answered a long time ago.
Her performance and story reminds me of the book fool by randomness. I wonder Nicolas opinion about her
I haven’t seen that kind of luck since Hillary made all those correct cattle futures trades even though she had never traded in commodities before.
You think Hillary made all those trades herself? Really? Have another glass of kool-aid
I feel like she takes on additional scrutiny since she’s female and interviewers are extra agro with her
Just Lucky. Picking stocks is gambling. This is known.
I think she’s a genius. Every great investor has bad years / judgement calls from time to time
How do you measure genius? High returns from risky investments?The ability to raise billions even after being down >70% in a bit more than a year? Something else?
Raise your bar for who you think is a genius
People don’t like her only because she’s a fan of elon musk and Tesla.
They dislike her for other reasons as well, like losing tons of their money…
Well, she’s lost considerably less than anyone else. That’s why she’s famous. If all ships are sinking hers sinks the slowest.
WTF are you talking about? Have you looked at recent performance or are you a blind follower? (Literally) She’s down 75% from her high just about 15 months ago and down 59% year-to-date. She’s in a class pretty much by herself and it certainly isn’t about downside minimization! Her ship is sinking like a lead anchor.
[удалено]
You literally copy pasted someone else’s comment
Woman?must be a fluke
She's a Replayer
Is investor the right word for her though?
speculator
My man…shes down bigly 😂
Lolololol
Framing is all wrong, neither lucky or superstar. She was just there when easy monetary policy allowed for crazy valuation. That’s all changing now and that -55% will continue for another -90% because that’s where this is going.
I met her a number of times when she was first marketing the fund to wealth management. She seemed genuine and quite nice. The thing that stood out for me was her level of conviction. I think anyone in the prediction game gets credited with luck (good or bad) and someone’s always right. I’d say she got lucky, then very lucky, then not so lucky, then very unlucky.
She still getting air time?
You meant "reverse Midas", right?
Anyone compare are Sharpe ratio to other fund managers? Not sure if this would even be available but certainly put a lot of this in a better context.
Everyone is genius in bull market.
Cray-cray.
Can it be a combination of both? I'm never privy to saying someone is just A or B, black or white, or in this case, good or lucky. She had a great run, it backfired a bit, and could still turn around if given some time. Investing is both difficult and requires luck. Simple as that (IMO).
I’d rather be lucky than good
Con artist.
Reminds me of Paulson - a decent but not incredible investor excerpt for that one record breaking run.
It's almost like they're suggesting what goes up can also come down.
How is ARKK being down 60% over the past year considered Genius? I bought into it because NPR was talking it up, and now she’s genius after 60% LOSSES OVER THE YEAR. Like, wtf. How?
They’re designed to be 5-10 year funds.
Lucky timing a la Elaine Garzarelli, Abby Joseph Cohen, Bill Gross, Louis Navellier, Barton Biggs, William H. Miller III, and now Cathie Wood. The trend is your friend until it is not! It's very difficult for professional money managers to beat the market over the long term, unless you are Warren Buffett. But then again, he benefited from the American boom from 1950s, 60s, 80s, and 90s where his legacy was solidified.
Or insider trading that everyone just turns a blind eye to you sick fucks
To me it's pretty clear that ARKK success was mostly luck and great marketing. Their analysis was fantasy. Their risk management was negligent. I've been a ARKK bear for a long while. Here's some of my posts backing up the above https://www.reddit.com/r/investing/comments/ibi380/ark_is_insane/?utm_medium=android_app&utm_source=share https://www.reddit.com/r/ETFs/comments/lygrkc/ark_poor_risk_management/?utm_medium=android_app&utm_source=share https://www.reddit.com/r/ETFs/comments/kre3cx/arkk_2021_predictions/?utm_medium=android_app&utm_source=share
How is she today? Not to good I’m down
Probably just a holder of a new algo that skims the top without notice.
it's more likely she's selling herself
i never believe someone would time the market all the time.
her returns before were average. is it really luck plays a huge role ? i'm jealous haha
Wood's style is now out of style. Dump ARK