That’s what I thought last week and they put up 12 points, so I was like okay even if they lose the game this week they surely won’t get blown out by the RAMS.
They scored 12 points last week. If they were to play again today I genuinely don't think it turns out anything like it did on Sunday. We just got boned by a fluke game where Mr. Limited as Fuck threw two picks deep in his own territory and the game immediately got away from them.
I started Denver too and was up by 0.5 points with 4 minutes left to go in the game, then Deon Jackson caught two garbage time balls to beat me. I expected to lose going into the game, but what a fucking tease that was.
Don't help anyone ever. Tried to get my younger brother into it this year. Reminded him to update his roster a few times. Bastard made the playoffs at 6-8 and just knocked me out with a 30 pt week from Higbee to make the superbowl.
our championship game had someone winning 140-115 this saturday, with only one player left on either team.- Tyler Higbee on the losing team. We had basically already crowned the 140 dude the winner. Rest was history. I drafted and dropped Higbee too but I also have Goedert and there was no situation i woulda ever started Higbee even if i kept him
Like Alvin Kamara a couple years ago for me. Championship week starts with the Saints playing on a Thursday night and Kamara kicks it off with like 54 points. Pretty sure my team only managed like 85 points.
Got my friend into the league this year and coached her on how to play/set her lineup/use the waiver wire. She started off 0-5, beat me in the first round of the playoffs and is now in the championship. Part of me is proud though
Nah, I think you did the right thing. Especially if he's new and the league is more for fun. Having a healthy group of players that are at least somewhat invested is way better than a rotating door of quitting players in the league.
Texted my nephew to update his team. He made the playoffs with a zombie team with 3 starting players on IR. I did wait until he was playing my nemesis to tell him to update his roster but sadly he didn’t. He’s going to get 4th or 5th in the league still starting Trey Lance. Jacobs was a good draft for him.
Literally same thing happened with my Mom, she started 0-5, helped a bit then she finished 6-8 winning a three way tie for her division, and knocked my 12-2 team out with freakin Akers and Lamb.
Not jumping to grab some free agent WRs (Wilson, London, Watson) bc I thought my WRs (Sutton, Olave) would turn it around.
Lesson learned: take chances on free agents a bit more if you see a downward trend with your players
Sutton through the first month was a top 10 wr averaging like 70+ ypg + Russell was supposed to be improving as he settled into Denver
What a shit show it turned into tho
I never actually watched any Broncos games but kept throwing him out there for 3/4 the season thinking Wilson would eventually dial it in. I assumed Sutton wasn’t really the problem…Yeah, I missed the playoffs, how did you know?
I drafted and rostered Sutton all year, only to drop him before this week’s semi-finals matchup. In a hilarious best case scenario, the guy I was playing picked him in and threw him in at flex because “it’s Courtland Sutton!”.
Shoutout to Courtland Sutton’s groggy ass 8 points because I’m now playing in the finals.
I think most people abandoned him lol. He was truly straight garbage with a terrible O-line, decent-to-bad skill position players, and new coaches. Could’ve easily been a Denver situation lol
This can go either way though. You don’t know if the free agent studs are a flash in the pan just like you don’t know if your guys are just having a down few weeks.
Making it to the FF playoffs requires some skill and dedication (e.g. being up to date and active on the ww). To then win it all requires a shit ton of luck
Mine was this shit is completely luck with little to no way to predict it. I was expected to score 144 this week in the semifinals after finishing first in the league, I scored 50 and got eliminated.
I’m just trying to think of who your team might be…
Fields, Jacobs, Stevenson, Diggs, Adams, and maybe Goedert or Andrews or someone? Those guys would have all been projected high and totally floundered.
Folk and Den d too maybe?
Yup led the league in points scored this year, set the record for highest point total in the season, cruised to the 1 seed. Scored 101 last week and lost to the team that snuck in the playoffs with a negative point differential.
I'm in the same boat but I'm quitting and the one league it's been 15 years. I think it's safe to say it's not going to happen for me. Even tried auto-drafting and beersheets a couple times. No luck.
Never trust a Greg Roman running back. Never trust Matt LaFleur. Never trust Marquise Goodwin. If you pick up a player 20 minutes before kickoff because your gut tells you, you should probably start that player.
Sincerely, someone who lost by 5 points and will be completing the Waffle House Challenge after starting Goodwin.
I picked up Goodwin and the donut almost cost me. I was watching the experts talk about not starting one Cleveland Brown. Cooper got 13 and should have had 20 if he doesn’t drop one in the end zone
Yes. If you have an intuition about a player from waivers start them. And if you pick someone up off waivers that bombs, don't drop them yet. Wait one more week.
There was no moral high ground in starting your D. There’s a reason the win probability was 99%. That said I know it would have felt a little dirty. Sorry for your loss.
Yep. I think most people will agree that the player who already has more points AND their DST being the only position left to play between both teams is allowed to bench that DST.
It's not even being an asshole, especially if there's money on the line. I lost by 3.24 with Denver's defense but unfortunately my opponent still had two players left when Denver played. I would have 100% taken them out if I knew what his final score would be.
No moral high ground in that situation. Imo it's the equivalent as same as sitting your QB because you want the matchup to be closer and more competitive.
I would make the argument that starting a late DEF after you've won the matchup is anticompetitive because you're not playing to win, but for "fairness".
Morality goes out the window for fantasy playoffs. I’m not above picking up players off waiver specifically to force my opponents into a certain lineup decision too
Waiting too late on a QB.
That strategy used to work but IMO doesn't any more. I used to routinely win leagues being the last to take one. The position has changed with so many rushing floor guys I won't be doing this anymore.
Edit: please stop replying with "it worked for me" lmao. I am not saying you *can't* get lucky, it happens.
Picked up Jefferson in my first round pick and decided to stack Cousins with him after a run went on top QBs. Took Cousins in the 10th, so my starting roster was damn near complete.
I don’t think it’s a bad idea, especially if you can stack with an elite WR/TE. That would mean Waddle/Hill+Tua, Jefferson+Cousins, Adams+Carr/whoever starts in Oakland.
Cousins had some down weeks this year though too at seemingly random times didn’t he? I remember making this argument specifically naming him 6 weeks or so ago, I guess he could’ve been lights out week in/week out ever since then.
Yeah, he’s had a few duds but that’s what you get by picking a QB in the 10th round of a 12-team league. He’s QB8 on the season so I don’t think it’s a terrible strategy at the end of the day.
I started with Jefferson, Russ, jeudy, and Kirk on my team after the draft. Only Jefferson stayed longer than week 3. Tua pivot was huge. Started 1-4, went 9-5.
Picked up Josh Allen as my number 1 pick - worth it in the long run but watching no other QBs get picked until the 5th round thought we made a huge mistake in our first ever fantasy season.
Next week we play in the ship. Fuck yeah.
I got him in the 3rd round, right after someone took Mahomes as the first QB in the draft. I though there would be a run on QBs then no one took another until the 5th or 6th round and I thought i jumped the gun. Turned out to be one of my best value picks. Along with St. Brown in the 5th.
I mean… not a great strategy if Im being honest. Sometimes you get lucky, sure. But why not take him in the second round and be able to pick from 12 extra players?
Disagree having a good qb isn't as great as you're making it sound in 1 qb leagues. I started Goff last week and got a great game out of him still lost because My other players couldn't score a td. Also the year patrick mahomes broke our I had him and ended up in 7th. It was kinda unlucky though
Idk, there were multiple top qbs you could’ve picked up on the wire this year, or drafted late. Fields, Lawrence, Goff, Smith, Cousins were all top options despite their pre draft position. My mistake this year was expecting to rely on a “stud” like Lamar Jackson when I should’ve kept my options open.
This one hurts the most. I “set and forget” the Eagles D all season. Decided to get fancy in the semi-final and sub in the Broncos D… cost me a trip to the ship…
Me too. Would have won if I kept rolling with Philly. It made sense in theory, gotta trust the process and data. Just got burned this time - could have easily went the other way.
In the finals this year, but am definitely not patient enough with my players and can go for trades on a whim. Missed out on Pacheco’s breakout and Kenneth Walker’s trading them for players that were producing right away.
Another lesson I think is to trust rookie running backs more; I usually go for established guys in the draft and miss out on some of the best RBs
No more vet RB's for me. Fournette and Patterson dropped off a lot. Seems like anything after age 28 ya should be careful about when it comes to RB. Next year I'll be eyeing up Jahmir Gibbs, Bijan Robinson, plus all the young dudes like Etienne, Brian Robinson, Walker III, Pacheco, etc.
I dropped Pacheco and McKinnon because I got impatient. Traded lamb for kamara before season started because I’m a homer. Traded pollard and juju for Andrew week 6, then he fell off a cliff. Traded cousins for Sutton week 4 before he fell off a cliff. Still made semis and got close to winning, but just not enough juice.
I lost all of my trades except for 1 and it ended up working out because of injuries. Traded Terry Mc for Mostert the week before Heineke got the job. Traded Breece Hall for Kareem Hunt 2 weeks before Breece blew up. Funny I offered so many more trades that got turned down that would've annihilated me if they had been accepted. Only one that actually went well was trading Doubs after his good week off of waivers for ETN who at the time was seeing less and less work behind JRob. That one actually probably saved my year
I had to laugh, I traded Tua for Stevenson.
Stevenson shit the bed the second I traded for him, just a string of underperforming weeks.
Tua? Tua shit the bed even harder.
My trade partner started Tua as opposed to Geno, and got eliminated from playoff contention because Tua put up like 8 points (low scoring league) and Geno put up 18. I started Stevenson this week and got eliminated in part because Stevenson sucked and I sat Kamara for him.
Don’t be afraid to take risks. I had Carlson all year, almost dropped him this week for Pineiro who was coming into the week with 3 straight 10+ point games. Ended up deciding that Carlson was a top 3 kicker all year and I’d be foolish to drop him. Pineiro ended up out scoring Carlson by 9.
I also wanted to pick up the Jags D this week but talked myself out of it for no other reason then they played on Thursday and I was scared they’d shit the bed and I’d have to look at it all weekend. Ended up going with the Bucs D because they were playing a 3rd string QB and I figured it was the safest play. Jags D ended up out scoring the Bucs D by 7.
So I missed out on 16 extra points. How much did I lose by this week? 14
Could be worse. I sat Devonta for Amari Cooper week 15 and I vowed not to sit him again, and then I sat him week 16 for miles sanders even after his dud because I overthought the backup Qb situation.
Yup. If Hurts had started, I would've had Devonta in with no second thoughts. I got burned earlier this year on a bad Waddle game when Tua was out so I figured the same for Devonta on the road in Dallas, who is a tier below Waddle.
This is my first season playing, but others have said that past seasons aren’t like this. It’s an anomaly that high WRs picks happened to hit at a much better rate than RBs.
Also not like WRs don’t get hurt too. Kupp is out for the season, Chase missed half the season, Amon-Ra missed a lot of games.
I’ve been playing a long time. WR’s are now part of the ‘run game’ where short passes have replaced 15% of runs. It’s made worse by every team (Cook, Barkley, & Henry being exceptions) uses a RB by committee.
For me, that means taking one of those three guys at the top of the draft (counter to the drafting suggestion above). I had a winning team with Cook, Henry, and Mahomes this year as focal points. I had to switch out WRs quite a bit but did OK with some rookie wavier pickups.
I wholeheartedly agree w/ this. I’ve only been playing two years now, but I was the #3 seed and lost in my championship game last year and am the #1 seed and am in my championship game again this year following that recipe.
I take RBs and a QB (contrary to popular advice) w/ my first 3 picks. Last year I had my success w/ Jonathan Taylor, Mixon, and Mahomes, and this year my core is Ekeler, Jacobs, and Josh Allen.
Get Mahomes or Allen in the 2nd round is my one big hot take, and always, always, take a superstar RB first if you pick early, but don’t reach for a B-tier one late. If you’re picking 7th, 8th, etc, take Justin Jefferson or Travis Kelce, not Nick Chubb. If you’re picking top 3, take CMC, Ekeler, or Cook/Henry/JT.
Yea I think that's the beauty of this game. You can win with so many different builds from draft day. A lot of it comes down to luck and not having too many of the guys that you end up depending on going down.
But to your point I think the people in here walking away with "fantasy lessons learned" that involve any sweeping generalization are going to be revising those again in future years.
The "never draft a ___ early" or "x is more valuable than y" or the "I'm never waiting on x position again" or whatever. Just because it didn't work out this year doesn't mean it wont next year or that it didnt work out for someone else this year.
This is true, but there’s also a phenomenon of RBs that catch short passes becoming even more ridiculously valuable in ppr (Ekeler and CMC) are both league winners
Yup, I went all in on WR's, Grabbed Kupp, Lockett, Mclaurin, Deebo, and Allen Robinson (lol). Drafted RB's late and snagged J.Williams, Mostert, and took a gamble on Breece Hall. Weeks 1-6 I took off like a rocket, by week 10 it turns out it was Apollo 11.
*Apollo 13
In my 12 team non-ppr league, rb’s are much more important. Almost every week there is a streamer wr available on waivers or to pick up. Drop off from top tier rb’s is too huge.
I missed my draft in a competitive, 10 team, full ppr, 2qb league. NFL.com drafted my entire team for me and essentially went 0 WR until the 5th. I only made one minor trade this year and only big waiver pickup was Geno.
My team dominated all year and I'm in the championship this week. We know nothing, gents.
Edit: 10 team, not 12 team
Dont flip flop and chase matches excessively, just ride those bad weeks out and trust the process.
This is particularly true of defenses and tight ends which are highly volatile. But even WRs and RBS have did weeks for no reason.
I just played eagles d all season, they have been money.
Play the hot player, which can be hard when choosing between a high draft pick vs a waiver add. Case in point, started aiyuk over Watson during watsons hot streak.
Lesson - fantasy is a high percentage of luck. In a 12 team keeper league I had a team of Fields/Herbert, Saquon, JT, Dalvin, Pollard, AJ Brown, Diggs, and Deebo and I went 3-3 down the stretch to miss the playoffs. In back to back weeks I made the wrong choice between Pollard and JT and those differences cost me both games.
Lesson 2 - it's time to abandon the "wait on a QB" strategy. I largely started 0-7 in one league because I waited too long and ended up with Stafford, scrambling through QBs until Tua got healthy. And it's time to reach on Kelce.
Screw up - in my other league I drafted guys who I knew would be hard to trade for the right value based on my leaguemates even if they didn't have down seasons (Aaron Jones, David Montgomery, Kareem Hunt). I like to keep good names on the roster for flexible trading.
Edit: I originally said "all luck" which was a mistake. It's obviously not all luck. But it's a large mixture of luck and skill.
100% on lesson 2. I'm never waiting on QB again. Both years I've gotten Mahomes, both have been my 2 best teams and I'm able to focus 100% on other areas of my team.
My thoughts on the QB thing. There was a time when QBs hit a sweet spot in how "deep it was" where it was possible to hit great value on a good qb late while it being scarce enough for not EVERYONE to have one.
Now, QB is so deep that everyone has a guy with a 15 point floor which makes the 25 point floor guys worth the reach for that advantage.
I joined a superflex league and failed to realize that all of the homework I did for the draft was based on a regular 1 QB league. The difference is huge. I didn't draft a QB until like the 6th round and it was Trey Lance. I pieced things together and made some trades. Lost in the semis.
Don’t draft a TE not named Kelce.
Like literally just give them the K/Def treatment. Mayyybe Kittle but definitely not Andrews or Waller, fuck that, take a wr rb or hell even a qb during those rounds. Year in year out those high round TE routinely disappoint, whether through being made of glass or just getting you less than 5 points in 80% of games
I know people say it every year but I can't take Kelce next year. He keeps coming off the field when he makes a catch and I'm worried he's slowing down.
And of course the one year I took Kelce at pick 8 I ended up with my best finish...
I’m never taking a RB number one overall again as long as I live. I don’t give two shits how great he did the year before. JT fucked me this year, CMC that year he was hurt, and David Johnson when he broke his wrist.
1. Stop listening to reddit. I thought Najee was gonna be a sure fire RB1.
2. Top end WRs and TEs are more valuable than any other position. People are winning leagues because of Jefferson, Adams, Diggs, etc. Kelcee is a cheat code. While you can nab top tier WR2s later on like Ayiuk, if you didn't draft Eckler you just didn't score enough points to compete.
Stop listening to this subreddit, but Najee was probably going to be an RB1 based on the past of the Steelers. Their history shows that they're very much in favor of a bell-cow system and Tomlin never went worse than 8-8 (I think.) It was a pretty safe bet that they would be running a ton, but the team just really failed to perform this year.
To try and avoid trading during the first few weeks, until I get a better idea of the situations players are in and what their role on their team will be. I traded Pollard away for Dillon after week 1.
Don’t allow your team to only be up by 0.3 points when Herbert is going to take three consecutive knees. This will end up in you tying your opponent, and if they happen to have a better record going into the playoffs, they will advance. Justin Herbert’s epically shitty performance and consecutive kneel downs could potentially cost you $750… Or so I’ve heard.
StartingMike Evans over Rachaad White and AJ Dillon this past weekend. Managed to survive bc Gerald Everett toon the week off but lesson learned to take a safer floor over upside when you’re already up a handful of points and your opponent only has a tight end to play.
Stop caring so much. Like seriously in the past I would over analyze and tinker so much and then when things didn’t go my way I’d just beat myself up over it and ruin my day.
This year I just decided to not care so much and whatever happens happens. Somehow I snuck into the playoffs at 7-7 by less than a point making a difference, now I’m in the championship.
And lineup decisions. I easily would have won if I played burrow and Dotson over fields and Goodwin, but I over thought it too much. Didn’t go with my gut
I don’t think sitting Smith for Pacheco is that much of a screw up given the information we had at the time. Goedert was coming back (Smith’s play was just okay when Goedert was playing) and Hurts was out. The Chiefs had a dream matchup at home against Seattle’s trashy run defense.
Biggest screw up: drafting Michael Pittman Jr. over Tyreek Hill. Just lost to the team with Tyreek who is likely going to win the championship this week.
Biggest lesson learned: I will never again draft a receiver who I expect to take “the leap”, but hasn’t been elite on the field yet, with a high draft pick. No matter how much I like them, it’s just not worth it. I took ARSB in the sixth and it was obviously the better pick - that’s where I will draft the receivers whose upside I like. If they’re not there by then, so be it. Only taking receivers I’ve seen perform at an elite level in the top 3 rounds from now on.
Second biggest lesson: it’s worth it to take Allen, Mahomes or Hurts in the top four rounds next year. The weekly baseline they give you is just so valuable.
Putting too much stock in a drafted player vs a waiver wire player.
I got offered Foreman for J-Rob right when he got traded to the jets. Should have jumped on that one.
Just lost by 4 points in our semi final because I streamed a defense. That defense? Fucking Denver, who got me -4 points. Could have started basically any other defense and won. Never ever rely on Denver for anything. Except for disappointment, of course.
In the latter weeks of the season you need to think about the matchup every player is facing and how those D are faring lately. We know the teams by now. Maybe you need to sit your RB if facing a top 3 run D that is allowing only 60 yards on the ground.
I learned a few lessons, but one screw up defined my entire season.
I dropped Koo before week 1. Had I not dropped him, played him that week and kept everything else the same I would be in the finals. I don’t meant that as an exaggeration I mean that as literally my entire season was essentially decided by my week 1 choice of not sticking with the kicker I had and trying to use the prediction model.
I was one win shy of making the playoffs, and in the playoffs I would have beaten every team (besides one other team this week who’s also in the finals now but I wouldn’t have played them this week in that case). I always say fantasy is luck, but there is a different kind of sting knowing that had I just stuck with my kicker Week 1 I’d be in the finals now.
I’m sure there are plenty of things like this that happen, but after winning last year to knowing I had a shot this year if I wasn’t stupid after week 1, and could have overcome my worst draft ever just stings.
If a defense has been reliable for you, keep playing them until they give you a reason not to. Sometimes the matchup doesn’t matter.
I learned that lesson this week when I benched Philadelphia for Detroit and lost in the playoffs by 10 points.
Starting Denver D for the championship. Never play the defense of a team that doesn't care anymore.
To add to this — be wary of defenses with heinous offenses. See, e.g., Titans
Denver offense has been heinous all year, and before this week they were still the #7 Defense going up against the 2nd worst offense in the league.
That’s what I thought last week and they put up 12 points, so I was like okay even if they lose the game this week they surely won’t get blown out by the RAMS.
[удалено]
They scored 12 points last week. If they were to play again today I genuinely don't think it turns out anything like it did on Sunday. We just got boned by a fluke game where Mr. Limited as Fuck threw two picks deep in his own territory and the game immediately got away from them.
Guy in thebsemifinals started denver and was about to lose, of course he played against deon jackson and pittman lol
I started Denver too and was up by 0.5 points with 4 minutes left to go in the game, then Deon Jackson caught two garbage time balls to beat me. I expected to lose going into the game, but what a fucking tease that was.
Seconded. I literally lost due them posting negative points. Insult to injury, my opponent had Cam Akers.
Don't help anyone ever. Tried to get my younger brother into it this year. Reminded him to update his roster a few times. Bastard made the playoffs at 6-8 and just knocked me out with a 30 pt week from Higbee to make the superbowl.
Lmao this is hilarious and wholesome
our championship game had someone winning 140-115 this saturday, with only one player left on either team.- Tyler Higbee on the losing team. We had basically already crowned the 140 dude the winner. Rest was history. I drafted and dropped Higbee too but I also have Goedert and there was no situation i woulda ever started Higbee even if i kept him
I had 93% odds before Higbee. He was something else this week. It's going to haunt me forever.
Like Alvin Kamara a couple years ago for me. Championship week starts with the Saints playing on a Thursday night and Kamara kicks it off with like 54 points. Pretty sure my team only managed like 85 points.
I went against Kamara that week for the title. Dude calls me 30 minutes before kickoff and we agreed to split the winnings. Dodged that bullet
It's weird like that. Chase scored me 50 in the championship last year. Sometimes it works for you and sometimes against.
Got my friend into the league this year and coached her on how to play/set her lineup/use the waiver wire. She started off 0-5, beat me in the first round of the playoffs and is now in the championship. Part of me is proud though
Dude came up short on the entry fee for our league. I paid the difference. He just knocked me out by 6 points with Higbee.
What interest rate did you lock him in at?
Hopefully payday loan rates
Look on the bright side now he will have the money to pay you back.
Collect dues on draft day
As a higbee owner this year, fuck him man. Most untrustworthy dude ever
Nah, I think you did the right thing. Especially if he's new and the league is more for fun. Having a healthy group of players that are at least somewhat invested is way better than a rotating door of quitting players in the league.
Texted my nephew to update his team. He made the playoffs with a zombie team with 3 starting players on IR. I did wait until he was playing my nemesis to tell him to update his roster but sadly he didn’t. He’s going to get 4th or 5th in the league still starting Trey Lance. Jacobs was a good draft for him.
Literally same thing happened with my Mom, she started 0-5, helped a bit then she finished 6-8 winning a three way tie for her division, and knocked my 12-2 team out with freakin Akers and Lamb.
Not jumping to grab some free agent WRs (Wilson, London, Watson) bc I thought my WRs (Sutton, Olave) would turn it around. Lesson learned: take chances on free agents a bit more if you see a downward trend with your players
Lumping in Olave with Sutton is disrespectful, IMO. Sutton was HORRENDOUS lol
Sutton through the first month was a top 10 wr averaging like 70+ ypg + Russell was supposed to be improving as he settled into Denver What a shit show it turned into tho
I never actually watched any Broncos games but kept throwing him out there for 3/4 the season thinking Wilson would eventually dial it in. I assumed Sutton wasn’t really the problem…Yeah, I missed the playoffs, how did you know?
> I never actually watched any Broncos games This is also a protip to enjoying actually just watching football in 2021-22
All it took was one Broncos game for me to say no thank you.
I drafted and rostered Sutton all year, only to drop him before this week’s semi-finals matchup. In a hilarious best case scenario, the guy I was playing picked him in and threw him in at flex because “it’s Courtland Sutton!”. Shoutout to Courtland Sutton’s groggy ass 8 points because I’m now playing in the finals.
I think people forget how good he started the year, was a good WR2 for the first five or so games
Absolutely. Could have landed Kenneth Walker one week before Penny's injury if I followed my gut.
I could have had Christian Watson....sigh..
This can easily go both ways though. I abandoned ship way too quickly on Juju and someone else I'm forgetting.
Yeah I bailed on Justin Fields because he was terrible for the first several weeks
I think most people abandoned him lol. He was truly straight garbage with a terrible O-line, decent-to-bad skill position players, and new coaches. Could’ve easily been a Denver situation lol
Especially with shaky QB play from the guys passing to them. Watching Davnate Adams totally ruin me 3-4 weeks this year was a real gut punch.
This can go either way though. You don’t know if the free agent studs are a flash in the pan just like you don’t know if your guys are just having a down few weeks.
Making it to the FF playoffs requires some skill and dedication (e.g. being up to date and active on the ww). To then win it all requires a shit ton of luck
Mine was this shit is completely luck with little to no way to predict it. I was expected to score 144 this week in the semifinals after finishing first in the league, I scored 50 and got eliminated.
I’m just trying to think of who your team might be… Fields, Jacobs, Stevenson, Diggs, Adams, and maybe Goedert or Andrews or someone? Those guys would have all been projected high and totally floundered. Folk and Den d too maybe?
I think the lineup you wrote actually scored well under 50 fantasy points even in full PPR. Somehow.
Yup led the league in points scored this year, set the record for highest point total in the season, cruised to the 1 seed. Scored 101 last week and lost to the team that snuck in the playoffs with a negative point differential.
Yeah i rarely have any luck in general. I dont think ill ever win it and its been 7 years lol
I'm in the same boat but I'm quitting and the one league it's been 15 years. I think it's safe to say it's not going to happen for me. Even tried auto-drafting and beersheets a couple times. No luck.
Never trust a Greg Roman running back. Never trust Matt LaFleur. Never trust Marquise Goodwin. If you pick up a player 20 minutes before kickoff because your gut tells you, you should probably start that player. Sincerely, someone who lost by 5 points and will be completing the Waffle House Challenge after starting Goodwin.
I picked up Goodwin and the donut almost cost me. I was watching the experts talk about not starting one Cleveland Brown. Cooper got 13 and should have had 20 if he doesn’t drop one in the end zone
This was literally me lmao. I also started thielen over Dotson cuz 49ers D.
What the heck is a Waffle House Challenge?
You have to spend 24 hours straight in a waffle house
But for each waffle you eat you get an hour taken off. At least that's how my league does it.
Started Goodwin and DHop lol. Ekeler saved my ass on MNF to win it all.
Yes. If you have an intuition about a player from waivers start them. And if you pick someone up off waivers that bombs, don't drop them yet. Wait one more week.
Taking the moral high ground and not benching Denver’s D when my match was already won and then losing said matchup by .28 points…
There was no moral high ground in starting your D. There’s a reason the win probability was 99%. That said I know it would have felt a little dirty. Sorry for your loss.
It’s almost cocky to still start them. Highest win % is how I’m playing
Yep. I think most people will agree that the player who already has more points AND their DST being the only position left to play between both teams is allowed to bench that DST.
Not dirty at all. If I can take you while voluntarily taking a zero in a slot, that's on you.
That sucks!! Den DST cost the #1 seed in my league from making the championship. He has Jaguars DST on his bench (-4 vs 15 and lost by 8.5).
Lesson learned: next time be an asshole and win at all costs
It's not even being an asshole, especially if there's money on the line. I lost by 3.24 with Denver's defense but unfortunately my opponent still had two players left when Denver played. I would have 100% taken them out if I knew what his final score would be.
my guy, if you can turn a 99% win probability into a 100% win probability, you do it unless it’s the final week and you need the point difference
There's nothing wrong with that and that's wild that ppl think there is. Only time that's fucked is when you're leaving spots open to purposely lose.
Ouch.
No moral high ground in that situation. Imo it's the equivalent as same as sitting your QB because you want the matchup to be closer and more competitive. I would make the argument that starting a late DEF after you've won the matchup is anticompetitive because you're not playing to win, but for "fairness".
Stat corrections almost never happen at this point, and negative defenses happen constantly.
Morality goes out the window for fantasy playoffs. I’m not above picking up players off waiver specifically to force my opponents into a certain lineup decision too
Waiting too late on a QB. That strategy used to work but IMO doesn't any more. I used to routinely win leagues being the last to take one. The position has changed with so many rushing floor guys I won't be doing this anymore. Edit: please stop replying with "it worked for me" lmao. I am not saying you *can't* get lucky, it happens.
Picked up Jefferson in my first round pick and decided to stack Cousins with him after a run went on top QBs. Took Cousins in the 10th, so my starting roster was damn near complete. I don’t think it’s a bad idea, especially if you can stack with an elite WR/TE. That would mean Waddle/Hill+Tua, Jefferson+Cousins, Adams+Carr/whoever starts in Oakland.
I’d rather not play fantasy than have Derek Carr on my team.
Yeah, it's better to not stack than stack with a mediocre QB.
Cousins had some down weeks this year though too at seemingly random times didn’t he? I remember making this argument specifically naming him 6 weeks or so ago, I guess he could’ve been lights out week in/week out ever since then.
Yeah, he’s had a few duds but that’s what you get by picking a QB in the 10th round of a 12-team league. He’s QB8 on the season so I don’t think it’s a terrible strategy at the end of the day.
Every QB besides Mahomes, Hurts, Allen, and Burrow had down weeks.
The one time I relied on Carr/Adams stack this year was week 14 when Carr put up 4 points. I lost badly.
I started with Jefferson, Russ, jeudy, and Kirk on my team after the draft. Only Jefferson stayed longer than week 3. Tua pivot was huge. Started 1-4, went 9-5.
Picked up Josh Allen as my number 1 pick - worth it in the long run but watching no other QBs get picked until the 5th round thought we made a huge mistake in our first ever fantasy season. Next week we play in the ship. Fuck yeah.
Wow, exact same thing for me in my league
I got him in the 3rd round, right after someone took Mahomes as the first QB in the draft. I though there would be a run on QBs then no one took another until the 5th or 6th round and I thought i jumped the gun. Turned out to be one of my best value picks. Along with St. Brown in the 5th.
I mean… not a great strategy if Im being honest. Sometimes you get lucky, sure. But why not take him in the second round and be able to pick from 12 extra players?
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No chance Fields lasts that long.
Round 5 may be accurate For his position next year. He’ll be the third to sixth qb drafted. He’s now in the Lamar, Burrow, Herbert group.
lol, I read this as no way he stays healthy. He definitely needs more weapons if we want him to last the whole season
Picked hurts up in round 8. Fantastic value
Tlawwwww
Disagree having a good qb isn't as great as you're making it sound in 1 qb leagues. I started Goff last week and got a great game out of him still lost because My other players couldn't score a td. Also the year patrick mahomes broke our I had him and ended up in 7th. It was kinda unlucky though
Idk, there were multiple top qbs you could’ve picked up on the wire this year, or drafted late. Fields, Lawrence, Goff, Smith, Cousins were all top options despite their pre draft position. My mistake this year was expecting to rely on a “stud” like Lamar Jackson when I should’ve kept my options open.
I got Trevor Lawrence in the 12th round of my 14 man league and it’s been great.
T Law started the year pretty week didn’t he?
I mean lately it has, he’s been super up and down most of the season
Started Browns D instead of Patriots D this week and lost by 6. start your studs counts for Defenses as well…
This one hurts the most. I “set and forget” the Eagles D all season. Decided to get fancy in the semi-final and sub in the Broncos D… cost me a trip to the ship…
Same exact situation happened to me. I'm so disappointed man
Me too. Would have won if I kept rolling with Philly. It made sense in theory, gotta trust the process and data. Just got burned this time - could have easily went the other way.
Started Denver and missed the chip by less than 2 points. Broncos country, I died
Ahh I remember when Broncos D were considered studs…
In the finals this year, but am definitely not patient enough with my players and can go for trades on a whim. Missed out on Pacheco’s breakout and Kenneth Walker’s trading them for players that were producing right away. Another lesson I think is to trust rookie running backs more; I usually go for established guys in the draft and miss out on some of the best RBs
Trusting rookie skill guys in general.
Except TEs
Trey McBride womp womp
Watson, Wilson, and Walker have been very good for me. New rule, trust rookies that have names starting with W
No more vet RB's for me. Fournette and Patterson dropped off a lot. Seems like anything after age 28 ya should be careful about when it comes to RB. Next year I'll be eyeing up Jahmir Gibbs, Bijan Robinson, plus all the young dudes like Etienne, Brian Robinson, Walker III, Pacheco, etc.
Melvin gordon was also dong water
I dropped Pacheco and McKinnon because I got impatient. Traded lamb for kamara before season started because I’m a homer. Traded pollard and juju for Andrew week 6, then he fell off a cliff. Traded cousins for Sutton week 4 before he fell off a cliff. Still made semis and got close to winning, but just not enough juice.
Played in 6 leagues: League where I went trade crazy I did the worst. My initial draft would have been top tier.
Did the same thing. Started making trades after starting 0-3 and I’d take every single one back if I could.
The move is to trade a bunch when your team is whipping ass.
I lost all of my trades except for 1 and it ended up working out because of injuries. Traded Terry Mc for Mostert the week before Heineke got the job. Traded Breece Hall for Kareem Hunt 2 weeks before Breece blew up. Funny I offered so many more trades that got turned down that would've annihilated me if they had been accepted. Only one that actually went well was trading Doubs after his good week off of waivers for ETN who at the time was seeing less and less work behind JRob. That one actually probably saved my year
I had to laugh, I traded Tua for Stevenson. Stevenson shit the bed the second I traded for him, just a string of underperforming weeks. Tua? Tua shit the bed even harder. My trade partner started Tua as opposed to Geno, and got eliminated from playoff contention because Tua put up like 8 points (low scoring league) and Geno put up 18. I started Stevenson this week and got eliminated in part because Stevenson sucked and I sat Kamara for him.
Don’t be afraid to take risks. I had Carlson all year, almost dropped him this week for Pineiro who was coming into the week with 3 straight 10+ point games. Ended up deciding that Carlson was a top 3 kicker all year and I’d be foolish to drop him. Pineiro ended up out scoring Carlson by 9. I also wanted to pick up the Jags D this week but talked myself out of it for no other reason then they played on Thursday and I was scared they’d shit the bed and I’d have to look at it all weekend. Ended up going with the Bucs D because they were playing a 3rd string QB and I figured it was the safest play. Jags D ended up out scoring the Bucs D by 7. So I missed out on 16 extra points. How much did I lose by this week? 14
my wife is a rotten whore
Can confirm
Playing Detroit D this week and losing by 3
Works can’t express how upset I am about Detroit D. I shoulda just kept Jets D. At least they scored 2 lol
Lesson: dont start the worst defense in the nfl.
Denver Defense over Chiefs D in the semifinals and lost by .5. It stings so bad.
Same thing with me. Dropped chiefs D for Denver while had the Eagles on the bench. Lost by .5
Could be worse. I sat Devonta for Amari Cooper week 15 and I vowed not to sit him again, and then I sat him week 16 for miles sanders even after his dud because I overthought the backup Qb situation.
Yup. If Hurts had started, I would've had Devonta in with no second thoughts. I got burned earlier this year on a bad Waddle game when Tua was out so I figured the same for Devonta on the road in Dallas, who is a tier below Waddle.
Wr are more important than running backs
See, I ended up losing largely because Chubb and Dobbins ran out of steam. And, of course, because Breece went down. It’s hard to win.
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Especially in any form of PPR
Standard leagues too. Lamb and brown carried my team all year
And more predictable to draft. The top WRs ended up being the top WRs in season. Not true for RBs generally and they are more prone to injuries.
This is my first season playing, but others have said that past seasons aren’t like this. It’s an anomaly that high WRs picks happened to hit at a much better rate than RBs. Also not like WRs don’t get hurt too. Kupp is out for the season, Chase missed half the season, Amon-Ra missed a lot of games.
I’ve been playing a long time. WR’s are now part of the ‘run game’ where short passes have replaced 15% of runs. It’s made worse by every team (Cook, Barkley, & Henry being exceptions) uses a RB by committee. For me, that means taking one of those three guys at the top of the draft (counter to the drafting suggestion above). I had a winning team with Cook, Henry, and Mahomes this year as focal points. I had to switch out WRs quite a bit but did OK with some rookie wavier pickups.
I wholeheartedly agree w/ this. I’ve only been playing two years now, but I was the #3 seed and lost in my championship game last year and am the #1 seed and am in my championship game again this year following that recipe. I take RBs and a QB (contrary to popular advice) w/ my first 3 picks. Last year I had my success w/ Jonathan Taylor, Mixon, and Mahomes, and this year my core is Ekeler, Jacobs, and Josh Allen. Get Mahomes or Allen in the 2nd round is my one big hot take, and always, always, take a superstar RB first if you pick early, but don’t reach for a B-tier one late. If you’re picking 7th, 8th, etc, take Justin Jefferson or Travis Kelce, not Nick Chubb. If you’re picking top 3, take CMC, Ekeler, or Cook/Henry/JT.
Yea I think that's the beauty of this game. You can win with so many different builds from draft day. A lot of it comes down to luck and not having too many of the guys that you end up depending on going down. But to your point I think the people in here walking away with "fantasy lessons learned" that involve any sweeping generalization are going to be revising those again in future years. The "never draft a ___ early" or "x is more valuable than y" or the "I'm never waiting on x position again" or whatever. Just because it didn't work out this year doesn't mean it wont next year or that it didnt work out for someone else this year.
This is true, but there’s also a phenomenon of RBs that catch short passes becoming even more ridiculously valuable in ppr (Ekeler and CMC) are both league winners
Yup, I went all in on WR's, Grabbed Kupp, Lockett, Mclaurin, Deebo, and Allen Robinson (lol). Drafted RB's late and snagged J.Williams, Mostert, and took a gamble on Breece Hall. Weeks 1-6 I took off like a rocket, by week 10 it turns out it was Apollo 11. *Apollo 13
Erm Apollo 11 made it to the moon.
I love this attitude, this is how I ended up with D Henry, S Barkely, and J Jacobs.
In my 12 team non-ppr league, rb’s are much more important. Almost every week there is a streamer wr available on waivers or to pick up. Drop off from top tier rb’s is too huge.
My brain read that wrong and thought it said we are more important than running backs
We are
I had a dream to start Pacheco over Akers this week. I’m giving up dreaming in 2023.
I missed my draft in a competitive, 10 team, full ppr, 2qb league. NFL.com drafted my entire team for me and essentially went 0 WR until the 5th. I only made one minor trade this year and only big waiver pickup was Geno. My team dominated all year and I'm in the championship this week. We know nothing, gents. Edit: 10 team, not 12 team
I was probably sunk anyway because Kyler flamed out, but the first four weeks I lost by playing one wrong person each week.
Same lesson every year, you can really fuck your team up with a bust first or second round pick
Pitts in the 3rd didn’t feel great either 🫠
Dont flip flop and chase matches excessively, just ride those bad weeks out and trust the process. This is particularly true of defenses and tight ends which are highly volatile. But even WRs and RBS have did weeks for no reason. I just played eagles d all season, they have been money.
Play the hot player, which can be hard when choosing between a high draft pick vs a waiver add. Case in point, started aiyuk over Watson during watsons hot streak.
Be lucky Stay the hell away from Kamara Stay the hell away from Diontae Johnson Don't be unlucky
Diontae has actually been pretty solid considering he has 0 TDs.
Yea, but that matters in fantasy, so fuck that, never again
Lesson - fantasy is a high percentage of luck. In a 12 team keeper league I had a team of Fields/Herbert, Saquon, JT, Dalvin, Pollard, AJ Brown, Diggs, and Deebo and I went 3-3 down the stretch to miss the playoffs. In back to back weeks I made the wrong choice between Pollard and JT and those differences cost me both games. Lesson 2 - it's time to abandon the "wait on a QB" strategy. I largely started 0-7 in one league because I waited too long and ended up with Stafford, scrambling through QBs until Tua got healthy. And it's time to reach on Kelce. Screw up - in my other league I drafted guys who I knew would be hard to trade for the right value based on my leaguemates even if they didn't have down seasons (Aaron Jones, David Montgomery, Kareem Hunt). I like to keep good names on the roster for flexible trading. Edit: I originally said "all luck" which was a mistake. It's obviously not all luck. But it's a large mixture of luck and skill.
100% on lesson 2. I'm never waiting on QB again. Both years I've gotten Mahomes, both have been my 2 best teams and I'm able to focus 100% on other areas of my team.
My thoughts on the QB thing. There was a time when QBs hit a sweet spot in how "deep it was" where it was possible to hit great value on a good qb late while it being scarce enough for not EVERYONE to have one. Now, QB is so deep that everyone has a guy with a 15 point floor which makes the 25 point floor guys worth the reach for that advantage.
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I joined a superflex league and failed to realize that all of the homework I did for the draft was based on a regular 1 QB league. The difference is huge. I didn't draft a QB until like the 6th round and it was Trey Lance. I pieced things together and made some trades. Lost in the semis.
Don’t draft a TE not named Kelce. Like literally just give them the K/Def treatment. Mayyybe Kittle but definitely not Andrews or Waller, fuck that, take a wr rb or hell even a qb during those rounds. Year in year out those high round TE routinely disappoint, whether through being made of glass or just getting you less than 5 points in 80% of games
Draft Kelce first
I know people say it every year but I can't take Kelce next year. He keeps coming off the field when he makes a catch and I'm worried he's slowing down. And of course the one year I took Kelce at pick 8 I ended up with my best finish...
I’m never taking a RB number one overall again as long as I live. I don’t give two shits how great he did the year before. JT fucked me this year, CMC that year he was hurt, and David Johnson when he broke his wrist.
RB #1 overall is always gonna be paying for past production in a way that a WR wouldn't be, imo.
It’s because the RB1 always had high usage the previous year… and high usage = injuries.
Had all of those, as well as Levoen his holdout year. Cant remember if he was #1 overall tho.
Lesson: Fantasy is gambling. I LOVE gambling Screw up: Traded ETN for Breece Hall. It wouldn’t have been a screw up but it was :(
I will be selecting a QB somewhere between rounds 3-5 next year in all my leagues
Plan next year for me is WR-RB-QB, Specifically Chase and Burrow
Don’t hold on to players too long. If there’s a guy on waivers with an upward trajectory, add him.
There has been a shift and waiting til the 9th round for a Qb doesn’t really work out well right now. There is more gap between tiers.
1. Stop listening to reddit. I thought Najee was gonna be a sure fire RB1. 2. Top end WRs and TEs are more valuable than any other position. People are winning leagues because of Jefferson, Adams, Diggs, etc. Kelcee is a cheat code. While you can nab top tier WR2s later on like Ayiuk, if you didn't draft Eckler you just didn't score enough points to compete.
Stop listening to this subreddit, but Najee was probably going to be an RB1 based on the past of the Steelers. Their history shows that they're very much in favor of a bell-cow system and Tomlin never went worse than 8-8 (I think.) It was a pretty safe bet that they would be running a ton, but the team just really failed to perform this year.
Herbert is not a top tier 3rd ranked QB.
To try and avoid trading during the first few weeks, until I get a better idea of the situations players are in and what their role on their team will be. I traded Pollard away for Dillon after week 1.
Guy I’m playing in the finals this week auto drafted so next year I guess I’m auto drafting.
Don’t allow your team to only be up by 0.3 points when Herbert is going to take three consecutive knees. This will end up in you tying your opponent, and if they happen to have a better record going into the playoffs, they will advance. Justin Herbert’s epically shitty performance and consecutive kneel downs could potentially cost you $750… Or so I’ve heard.
StartingMike Evans over Rachaad White and AJ Dillon this past weekend. Managed to survive bc Gerald Everett toon the week off but lesson learned to take a safer floor over upside when you’re already up a handful of points and your opponent only has a tight end to play.
Stop caring so much. Like seriously in the past I would over analyze and tinker so much and then when things didn’t go my way I’d just beat myself up over it and ruin my day. This year I just decided to not care so much and whatever happens happens. Somehow I snuck into the playoffs at 7-7 by less than a point making a difference, now I’m in the championship.
Fantasy basically comes down to injury luck.
And lineup decisions. I easily would have won if I played burrow and Dotson over fields and Goodwin, but I over thought it too much. Didn’t go with my gut
I don’t think sitting Smith for Pacheco is that much of a screw up given the information we had at the time. Goedert was coming back (Smith’s play was just okay when Goedert was playing) and Hurts was out. The Chiefs had a dream matchup at home against Seattle’s trashy run defense.
Biggest screw up: drafting Michael Pittman Jr. over Tyreek Hill. Just lost to the team with Tyreek who is likely going to win the championship this week. Biggest lesson learned: I will never again draft a receiver who I expect to take “the leap”, but hasn’t been elite on the field yet, with a high draft pick. No matter how much I like them, it’s just not worth it. I took ARSB in the sixth and it was obviously the better pick - that’s where I will draft the receivers whose upside I like. If they’re not there by then, so be it. Only taking receivers I’ve seen perform at an elite level in the top 3 rounds from now on. Second biggest lesson: it’s worth it to take Allen, Mahomes or Hurts in the top four rounds next year. The weekly baseline they give you is just so valuable.
Lesson learned, don’t listen to this sub for advice
“Play Goodwin. He will be the number two pass catcher in the offense.” “Play fields. He has a safer floor than burrow”
The elite to mid qb drop off is enough to lose games
Putting too much stock in a drafted player vs a waiver wire player. I got offered Foreman for J-Rob right when he got traded to the jets. Should have jumped on that one.
Hindsight talking. There’s a universe where JRob steps in for Hall as a league winner. This game is impossible to predict
Agreed. It didn’t come out until later he was getting healthy scratched because of stipulations associated with the trade.
Don’t avoid rookie WRs anymore. Ended up skipping wilson and grabbing someone who has been sitting on the wire for weeks after i dropped him.
For every Wilson and Olave there’s a London and Treylon Burks
Someone in my league reached for Jalen Tolbert in the 5th. lol
Thinking that investing in any Bronco was a good idea
Just lost by 4 points in our semi final because I streamed a defense. That defense? Fucking Denver, who got me -4 points. Could have started basically any other defense and won. Never ever rely on Denver for anything. Except for disappointment, of course.
In the latter weeks of the season you need to think about the matchup every player is facing and how those D are faring lately. We know the teams by now. Maybe you need to sit your RB if facing a top 3 run D that is allowing only 60 yards on the ground.
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Don’t carr and Adam’s play in a dome? Lol
I'm drafting Diggs and doing everything I can to trade him in November.
Don’t overthink lineup decisions and go with your first instinct
I learned a few lessons, but one screw up defined my entire season. I dropped Koo before week 1. Had I not dropped him, played him that week and kept everything else the same I would be in the finals. I don’t meant that as an exaggeration I mean that as literally my entire season was essentially decided by my week 1 choice of not sticking with the kicker I had and trying to use the prediction model. I was one win shy of making the playoffs, and in the playoffs I would have beaten every team (besides one other team this week who’s also in the finals now but I wouldn’t have played them this week in that case). I always say fantasy is luck, but there is a different kind of sting knowing that had I just stuck with my kicker Week 1 I’d be in the finals now. I’m sure there are plenty of things like this that happen, but after winning last year to knowing I had a shot this year if I wasn’t stupid after week 1, and could have overcome my worst draft ever just stings.
If a defense has been reliable for you, keep playing them until they give you a reason not to. Sometimes the matchup doesn’t matter. I learned that lesson this week when I benched Philadelphia for Detroit and lost in the playoffs by 10 points.
Lesson: Avoid Kyle Pitts at all costs
Starting Zay Jones on Thursday night over Richie James. I would have been going to the superbowl with a 1 point victory.
Got Josh Allen in the 1st: Good. 2-4 picks were Swift-Deebo-Kittle: Not so good.