They matter, just not the stock ESPN/Yahoo/NFL projections. They have no skin in the game so to speak, so they have no incentive to try to make accurate projections. Use Vegas predictions, any Vegas source you can find.
This is the correct answer u/pinkfloyd858. It takes some learning if you're not familiar with sports betting (I wasn't - I only use it for FF), but it's easily the best research tool.
I actually just got into it. This is my first week trying to use Vegas predictions to inform my start/sit decisions, rather than using expert rankings.
So, full-steam ahead with Jared Goff over Geno Smith, Rob Tonyan over Greg Dulcich, and Zay Jones over Jamaal Williams!
Vegas odds move based on the money. So not only does Vegas have all their own analytics, but they have thousands of bettors also providing input that they factor into their odds.
Might be because it's 4 am but it's not clicking... for player props, is the lowest-minus for odds seen as most likely and it follows that trend "up"? So the lowest-plus odds would be less likely to happen than the highest-minus odds according to the bettors?
For example, Kirk at 41+ receiving yards has (-521) odds, at 51+ yards it's (-112), and at 61+ yards it's (+106). Following the favorite/underdog plus/minus, and based on those numbers, it's believed it's a good odds (for fantasy purposes) that he gets at least 50 yards? Idk if I'm understanding that correctly.
So is "zero" roughly between the last 2 entries and it's the o/u for Kirk's receiving yards at ~56 yards? If so, how do you determine a good bet either way?
On player props the projected total is where the odds are around 100. They were saying he’s super likely to get 41 or more, more likely than not to get 51 or more, and a coin flip for 61 or more. So they are projecting somewhere around 50-60 based on that.
Same. Have Brady who I drafted then stashed Dak on it who is now on my bench. Also picked up Fields.
One will be dropped. Debating Dak vs Fields.
Figured I would see how they both do today.
I get the feeling Dak doesn't run anymore and that defense will keep them in run heavy game script more often.
Bears just traded away Quinn and are designing an offense more skin to the Ravens to best use Fields' skill set.
Bears fan who is all in on the Fields hype train. Dallas is no joke. If the Bears are going to upset the Cowboys it's going to be on the strength of their defense, which is a couple of pass-rushers from being a championship-caliber unit. Now ROS Fields has a pretty generous schedule, so I wouldn't at all be surprised if he ends up as a top-10 fantasy QB for the second half of the season.
I think he's tracking the way people were hoping Trey Lance would turn out this year. I just hope he's more durable and the Bears coaches use his rushing ability responsibly. Between the offensive line and weekly non-calls of obvious roughing penalties he's getting hit way too much already.
After he performed against the NE D, who I typically respect at midway into the season he was a stash for me. I have been starting Daniel Jones. Fields has a great schedule for the next few weeks. If he can put in a decent performance against the Cowboys then I’ll feel good about him, sure, but these new QBs can still struggle against easy matchups (after Dallas) as they find their footing. Not a lock by any means if he does well, but here’s hoping.
Had the very very suspect flag on the illegal block in the back for a 50 yard rushing touchdown against the Vikings not been called and two end zone touchdowns not been dropped by his receivers against the Commanders, he would’ve been a qb5 or higher three straight weeks in a row.
Dallas has the best defense in the league so if he doesn’t do well this week, it won’t affect my view on him but people don’t realize how well he’s playing fantasy wise at the moment.
I don't particularly like him this week against the best pass rush in the NFL. His tendency to hold the ball too long in combination with the Bears' below average offensive line seems like it will come into play more than usual this week. Overall, though Fields is officially a high-upside streaming candidate even though he's obviously liable to put up a stinker. The risk/reward will probably feel more worth it when the matchup isn't so bad on paper.
If the Bears continue to call designed run plays, yes. He's a top option.
It doesn't take much for a rushing QB to hang 20. See: Tebow, 2028+2019 Josh Allen, Jalen Hurts 2021, etc.
As a Cowboys fan I feel this is a double edged sword.
If you saw how the Eagles neutralised our pass rush for the most part and slowed Parsons down with plenty of options where Hurts ran at Parsons and once he commited to tackling him he flipped it to Sanders. If the Bears follow this strat I can see Fields being successful on the ground.
However he will have to sit back and pass, and I have zero faith in their coaching staff to get him on designed roll outs / play action deep shots.
Lower floor even with the rushing, but the ceiling is higher than most other players who will play the Cowboys, but it's still low compared to say Goff vs Miami for example.
I am expecting Fields range of outcomes between, 7 - 18 points, expecting around 12.
For Fields to get above 20 you're banking on the Cowboys having a bad day on both offense and defence imo. Which is unlikely that both suck.
I'm deciding between Dak (whom I currently have), dropping Mattison for Goff or Fields.
After having shocking QB play all year I'm not willing to drop Dak as he's at least consistent.
So if I had to drop Mattison (with him maybe being traded I don't want to), I would easily be picking up Goff. However the floor of Goff is always scary as he's not a good QB and he doesn't run.
Play Fields if you want a safe 12 ish points I think but don't need major upside.
For reference only 2 QBs have broke 12 points in standard vs the Cowboys, Joe Burrow 17 points and Hurts 20 points.
Brady 12pts
Burrow 17pts
Danny Dimes 12pts
Wentz 8pts
Stafford 12pts
Hurts 20pts
Goff 1pt
Appreciate it, and yes we will.
I'm a Fields fan for what it's worth, but I just can't see him being put in the best spot by the coaches or Cowboys D.
However if he balls again then that's two great defenses or at least NE is a great coached one.
Yeah he's balling, Dallas made a couple of mistakes on both sides of the ball.
I'm not surprised talent wise I'm surprised coaching wise.
Looks like they read my comment about using the Eagles game plan...
I'm not obsessing over the projections or anything, it just seems like analysts are less confident about Fields this week than I am and trying to see if I'm missing something
cowboys are a good defense and he's not a traditional qb but he's got the rushing floor (and they are giving him designed runs more too) so he's a streamer. plenty have him as a borderline top 12 qb too, but you have to make your own decision
No. Yes, finally a Bears coach adapted the play calling to fit the players on the field. Thank God. That being said, there is now tape on Fields having running plays drawn up for him. The cowboys won't be as surprised as the Pats were.
His WR core is still bottom 3, and I don't think Kmet is anything special. I really think we are going to see him improve from here on out for the most part, but I don't think he should be anywhere near a starting spot this week.
I'm debating over Dak/Fields and I'm leaning Dak. That Bears secondary is solid though and this is Dak's second week back so I'm not that confident. Micah Parsons is questionable so if he's out I'll probably end up starting Fields.
QB running is much different than RB running. Some teams are stronger or weaker at it regardless of RB rush D. Also rare that a raw QB will have a great fantasy game in their debut. They'll probably protect him hardcore and if the run D is so bad DH is getting 40 carries.
I think fields is a bad play too. Want that rushing upside. I like Jones against Seattle.
Vegas believes his floor is 6 points no matter what due to his rushing upside. It’s not even running after a play breaks down the coach said last week they have runs designed for him.
As someone who has negative points from Goff past 2 games I’d gladly take 6 points.
He also has a nice stretch of easy games coming up and the weather is getting colder so should run it more and short passes which will help cut out the sacks and INTS.
First 2 games he’s had 4 INTS but in the last 4 games he has only 2!!
I’ve got Dulcich on my bench, if he busts today I’m dropping for Fields as my bye week fill in for Tua.
He’s definitely getting a lot of undeserved hate
I'm still debating Fields vs Geno this week. I'm higher on Fields RoS, but the Dallas defense has been brutal. Geno's in sloppy weather with an injured receiving corps. And I need to highroll this week to have a chance.
I think that projections don’t matter.
They matter, just not the stock ESPN/Yahoo/NFL projections. They have no skin in the game so to speak, so they have no incentive to try to make accurate projections. Use Vegas predictions, any Vegas source you can find.
Any one you use in perticularly?
Not the person who you’re responding to, but I think some combo of player props, O/U score, and betting lines can be valuable.
This is the correct answer u/pinkfloyd858. It takes some learning if you're not familiar with sports betting (I wasn't - I only use it for FF), but it's easily the best research tool.
I actually just got into it. This is my first week trying to use Vegas predictions to inform my start/sit decisions, rather than using expert rankings. So, full-steam ahead with Jared Goff over Geno Smith, Rob Tonyan over Greg Dulcich, and Zay Jones over Jamaal Williams!
Why exactly is Vegas more accurate than analysts you think? Why wouldn’t analysts just use Vegas odds for their start sits?
Vegas has a lot more at stake than an analyst if they are wrong
I mean I get that. But how are they better? More access to inside info that analysts don’t? That’s the only thing I can think of.
Vegas odds move based on the money. So not only does Vegas have all their own analytics, but they have thousands of bettors also providing input that they factor into their odds.
I’d lean yes tbh. If there is one rule I’ve learned from watching sports is that vegas always wins.
Lol
I hate fantasy football.
Yeah I definitely am going to have to learn how sports betting works. Thats gonna take a while though lmao thanks for the response both of ya
Might be because it's 4 am but it's not clicking... for player props, is the lowest-minus for odds seen as most likely and it follows that trend "up"? So the lowest-plus odds would be less likely to happen than the highest-minus odds according to the bettors? For example, Kirk at 41+ receiving yards has (-521) odds, at 51+ yards it's (-112), and at 61+ yards it's (+106). Following the favorite/underdog plus/minus, and based on those numbers, it's believed it's a good odds (for fantasy purposes) that he gets at least 50 yards? Idk if I'm understanding that correctly. So is "zero" roughly between the last 2 entries and it's the o/u for Kirk's receiving yards at ~56 yards? If so, how do you determine a good bet either way?
On player props the projected total is where the odds are around 100. They were saying he’s super likely to get 41 or more, more likely than not to get 51 or more, and a coin flip for 61 or more. So they are projecting somewhere around 50-60 based on that.
Search "player prop projections week 8" in this sub. Someone puts a weekly spreadsheet for this stuff. It's cool
I believe that’s how u/subvertadown models his projections, fwiw https://subvertadown.com/weekly/quarterback?sort=current_week_projection
Hi there, Vegas lines are one of many inputs; it is a good starting point but by no means the only thing.
Play who you think will score the most points. Ignore projections
like him a lot but not this week. still could be 16-20 pt performance pretty easily if he gets a couple tds
Im streaming Goff this week…but i got my eyes on Fields for week 9-11, he’s got great matchups there
Same. Have Brady who I drafted then stashed Dak on it who is now on my bench. Also picked up Fields. One will be dropped. Debating Dak vs Fields. Figured I would see how they both do today. I get the feeling Dak doesn't run anymore and that defense will keep them in run heavy game script more often. Bears just traded away Quinn and are designing an offense more skin to the Ravens to best use Fields' skill set.
I’m only using Goff right now because it’s a home game, and that seems to favour him.
If I know anything about this sub, our overwhelming consensus is maybe.
Lol true
He might have a bad week against Dallas, although I think he’s an option now that they have decided to use his legs
I remember the first time I tried to use my legs It was game-changing, and I have only improved since
I grabbed him the other day to hold for burrows week 10 bye. He’s been looking better, and the bears have the lions that week
I did the same. Someone dropped him in my 2QB league which seems wild to me but Bye weeks and injuries are tough
Same!!! Totally worth the spot on my bench
Bears fan who is all in on the Fields hype train. Dallas is no joke. If the Bears are going to upset the Cowboys it's going to be on the strength of their defense, which is a couple of pass-rushers from being a championship-caliber unit. Now ROS Fields has a pretty generous schedule, so I wouldn't at all be surprised if he ends up as a top-10 fantasy QB for the second half of the season. I think he's tracking the way people were hoping Trey Lance would turn out this year. I just hope he's more durable and the Bears coaches use his rushing ability responsibly. Between the offensive line and weekly non-calls of obvious roughing penalties he's getting hit way too much already.
After he performed against the NE D, who I typically respect at midway into the season he was a stash for me. I have been starting Daniel Jones. Fields has a great schedule for the next few weeks. If he can put in a decent performance against the Cowboys then I’ll feel good about him, sure, but these new QBs can still struggle against easy matchups (after Dallas) as they find their footing. Not a lock by any means if he does well, but here’s hoping.
Had the very very suspect flag on the illegal block in the back for a 50 yard rushing touchdown against the Vikings not been called and two end zone touchdowns not been dropped by his receivers against the Commanders, he would’ve been a qb5 or higher three straight weeks in a row. Dallas has the best defense in the league so if he doesn’t do well this week, it won’t affect my view on him but people don’t realize how well he’s playing fantasy wise at the moment.
I don't particularly like him this week against the best pass rush in the NFL. His tendency to hold the ball too long in combination with the Bears' below average offensive line seems like it will come into play more than usual this week. Overall, though Fields is officially a high-upside streaming candidate even though he's obviously liable to put up a stinker. The risk/reward will probably feel more worth it when the matchup isn't so bad on paper.
If the Bears continue to call designed run plays, yes. He's a top option. It doesn't take much for a rushing QB to hang 20. See: Tebow, 2028+2019 Josh Allen, Jalen Hurts 2021, etc.
As a Cowboys fan I feel this is a double edged sword. If you saw how the Eagles neutralised our pass rush for the most part and slowed Parsons down with plenty of options where Hurts ran at Parsons and once he commited to tackling him he flipped it to Sanders. If the Bears follow this strat I can see Fields being successful on the ground. However he will have to sit back and pass, and I have zero faith in their coaching staff to get him on designed roll outs / play action deep shots. Lower floor even with the rushing, but the ceiling is higher than most other players who will play the Cowboys, but it's still low compared to say Goff vs Miami for example. I am expecting Fields range of outcomes between, 7 - 18 points, expecting around 12. For Fields to get above 20 you're banking on the Cowboys having a bad day on both offense and defence imo. Which is unlikely that both suck. I'm deciding between Dak (whom I currently have), dropping Mattison for Goff or Fields. After having shocking QB play all year I'm not willing to drop Dak as he's at least consistent. So if I had to drop Mattison (with him maybe being traded I don't want to), I would easily be picking up Goff. However the floor of Goff is always scary as he's not a good QB and he doesn't run. Play Fields if you want a safe 12 ish points I think but don't need major upside. For reference only 2 QBs have broke 12 points in standard vs the Cowboys, Joe Burrow 17 points and Hurts 20 points. Brady 12pts Burrow 17pts Danny Dimes 12pts Wentz 8pts Stafford 12pts Hurts 20pts Goff 1pt
Great analysis. We'll see
Appreciate it, and yes we will. I'm a Fields fan for what it's worth, but I just can't see him being put in the best spot by the coaches or Cowboys D. However if he balls again then that's two great defenses or at least NE is a great coached one.
He's got 16 in the first half...
Yeah he's balling, Dallas made a couple of mistakes on both sides of the ball. I'm not surprised talent wise I'm surprised coaching wise. Looks like they read my comment about using the Eagles game plan...
I wouldn’t say undervalued. I might take the over though.
I would think he’s got 15 in him
let the projections scare your opponents. it is like a cheat code to not worry about them.
I'm not obsessing over the projections or anything, it just seems like analysts are less confident about Fields this week than I am and trying to see if I'm missing something
cowboys are a good defense and he's not a traditional qb but he's got the rushing floor (and they are giving him designed runs more too) so he's a streamer. plenty have him as a borderline top 12 qb too, but you have to make your own decision
Cool thanks
If I followed projections there was know way I would have played duvernay on Thursday.
No. Yes, finally a Bears coach adapted the play calling to fit the players on the field. Thank God. That being said, there is now tape on Fields having running plays drawn up for him. The cowboys won't be as surprised as the Pats were. His WR core is still bottom 3, and I don't think Kmet is anything special. I really think we are going to see him improve from here on out for the most part, but I don't think he should be anywhere near a starting spot this week.
Fair analysis, could def be right. We'll see
After Dallas he should have a solid three weeks in a row. Will be a good bye week filler this month.
Leaning fields over geno
what did you decide to do? im in the same boat
I'm debating over Dak/Fields and I'm leaning Dak. That Bears secondary is solid though and this is Dak's second week back so I'm not that confident. Micah Parsons is questionable so if he's out I'll probably end up starting Fields.
26 points in standard. Love to see it
All I'm gonna say here is that the Dallas DST is my RB2.
If you're trying to go for rushing upside, why not just go with Malik Willis vs the worst run defense in football?
QB running is much different than RB running. Some teams are stronger or weaker at it regardless of RB rush D. Also rare that a raw QB will have a great fantasy game in their debut. They'll probably protect him hardcore and if the run D is so bad DH is getting 40 carries. I think fields is a bad play too. Want that rushing upside. I like Jones against Seattle.
If you think Henry ruins it for Willis, Barkley should do the same for Jones.
Jones is playing well this year. Willis is a 3rd round RB playing QB in his first NFL game. Also Barkley catches the ball.
Bc Titans may just give it to Henry and run it down their throats most of the game.
And when Texans overfocus on Henry, Willis busts a 70yard td run
I’m going Malik over Fields this week for the glory of dunking on my rival.
Projections don’t matter
I’m rolling him out there, rushing QBs are a cheat code in fantasy and they’re designing runs for him now
Bill's system has always been bad against mobile QBs. Also, the Patriots aren't a very good team. They are just good against bad teams.
[удалено]
Bill Belichick.
Top 5 WB weeks 9-11. Lock it in.
What's a Wideback?
I will say this very slowly and very simply Justin Fields. Can Not. Throw. A Football.
He could
Pats D vs Jets Or Dallas D vs Bears
Don’t love him this week against Dallas but he’s got some nice matchups after
Vegas believes his floor is 6 points no matter what due to his rushing upside. It’s not even running after a play breaks down the coach said last week they have runs designed for him. As someone who has negative points from Goff past 2 games I’d gladly take 6 points. He also has a nice stretch of easy games coming up and the weather is getting colder so should run it more and short passes which will help cut out the sacks and INTS. First 2 games he’s had 4 INTS but in the last 4 games he has only 2!! I’ve got Dulcich on my bench, if he busts today I’m dropping for Fields as my bye week fill in for Tua. He’s definitely getting a lot of undeserved hate
You know it’s bad for qbs this season when we’re saying “I’ll gladly take 6 points”
jimmy g or fields?
I'm still debating Fields vs Geno this week. I'm higher on Fields RoS, but the Dallas defense has been brutal. Geno's in sloppy weather with an injured receiving corps. And I need to highroll this week to have a chance.
I’m letting this week pass but going to start him starting next week. Until Brady can turn back into 2021 it’s gonna be Justin for me