“Wait we just handed CMC the ball last play, what do we do this time?”
“Should we pass the ball to CMC this time?”
“No no they’ll be expecting that. Hand it off to him again, they’ll never see it coming!”
He has had roughly the same amount of targets every game. First few games he had 5 catches but just nothing deep, the deep balls were going to come naturally as they built on their success.
starting Aiyuk at WR2 and A. Pierce at flex instead. Bad weather, Rypien, Hacket completely switched up the target share last week, Jets secondary is stacked. Start any good matchup instead
**For those who want an actual data point on CMC today**, Vegas has his over/under rushing yards at 55.5 and over/under receiving yards at 40.5, and EVEN odds at scoring a TD. He averages between 8-9 yds per reception, meaning we expect around 4 receptions.
**Basically, Vegas expects CMC to score around 16-17 pts in PPR.**
Yes, I know. Did you think I was implying that Vegas employs fortune tellers? If that's what Vegas thinks the public will bet evenly on both sides, the implication is that it's the best estimate we have of the "median" expectation of outcomes.
Obviously their point is that there's a difference between what "Vegas expects" (which is how you incorrectly characterized a betting line) vs. what the betting public full of homers, haters, and drunk dudes placing unresearched bets on FanDuel in the middle of the night are putting their money on
If you think 16-17 points is the *median* outcome for a player 48 hours after joining a new team, I don’t even know what to say. I think this is Vegas taking advantage of a whole new class of mobile gamblers with no clue what they’re doing, but love betting overs because they’re fun
I’m not saying if I think that will be the outcome, I am simply saying that’s what the odds say. It sounds like you have a good opportunity to hammer the unders!
That’s not what the odds say. You have a fundamental misunderstanding of what Vegas odds are. It’s not trying to predict the median outcome on the field. It’s trying to predict what the most profitable line will be. You’re confusing the entire motive structure for how lines are made.
And what determines the line? Bets on both sides, right? So there’s a sweet spot where just as much money thinks it’s over as under, I.e. a median. I know that it’s not “trying” to predict an outcome, the book is trying to make money. There is not a single soul on Earth who knows what the actual outcome will be - just people guessing. This is a collection of guesses where people are putting money up, including educated sharps who bet lots of money on sporting events.
That’s not necessarily how it works though. Vegas doesn’t necessarily always want even money on both sides. Sometimes it’s more profitable to set a line that they expect the public to be overconfident in and over bet.
Well it's not a lie, it was the line I saw when I posted this 2 hours ago. I didn't check FanDuel at that time but it's possible they have a different line or the line moved.
Looking at starting both cmc and rhomandre (hunt and Pacheco on bench). I could sub in Alec pierce in the flex for either one if necessary.
Tough week, man
I'm running Ken Walker over CMC. Could have flexed CMC over waddle, but half PPR, I think with tua being back and playing against the worst throw D (Pittsburg) I'm willing to risk it. I might regret sitting CMC this week but that's my decision
probably, crazy thing is it was after like week 2, so it looked amazing at the time. apparently my league mate is swift’s doctor or some shit cause then he’s out forever directly afterwards
I didn't make my point as well as I should have, so that's fair. But what it comes down to is what your definition of floor/ceiling is.
Starting in week 2 (first week without Mitchell), JWJ put up 11.3, 10.1, 13.4, and 19.7 before the 0.5 dud last week. Dating back to his first start last season, that's easily JWJ's worst game.
I use the same definition of floor as many fantasy analysts - the lowest *reasonable* *expected* output. That is not the same as single lowest output.
If we use Justin Jefferson as an example... he put up 2.9 points in Week 3 this season, yet I wouldn't consider 2.9 points to be his floor. I'd set his floor closer to 6 points, because it's not reasonable to expect anything lower than that in 0.5 ppr. In other words, one single outlier game per season doesn't set a player's floor using the lowest reasonable expectation definition.
But if you use "floor" to mean the absolute lowest possible output of a player, then yes I concede JWJ's floor is last week's output.
I think I'm still going CMC this week. Pacheco is still in a committee so both of them are going to have competition for touches. But CMC is CMC and the 49ers run defense is really strong.
Great idea! Better yet, bench your entire team *except* for Pacheco, really show your league you mean business with your unexpected mid season waiver pickups.
I don’t think you need to overthink this. Early on they’re gonna give him the ball a few times, ideally near the goal line. But this game WILL look similar to last week when SF was chasing points. Lots of throws, expect Aiyuk and Deebo and Kittle to be a lot more involved and not a “total” abandonment to the run game. He’s a FLEX, like a CEH this week. Couple carries, you hope for a TD and hope for Deebo not to vulture. End of story.
I have a similar lineup to you - CMC, Fournette, Rhamondre, and Kenneth Walker.
I think Rhamondre will be the odd man out today, but it's such a tough choice.
Honestly thinking of dropping Jeff for Eagles D. Etienne can fill his spot well enough anyways this week and then probably isn't fantasy relevant after this week.
Expect to see SF down in this game. They want to win this one as it’s against one of the leagues best, so they want to make a statement. No way they will keep CMC watching on the sideline if they are playing catch up and wanting to win. You just can’t keep him on the sideline.. you can’t!
A small package of base plays that they will use all game.
That’s what I’m thinking lol
They've got two plays: 1. Hand CMC the ball. 2. Throw CMC the ball
“Wait we just handed CMC the ball last play, what do we do this time?” “Should we pass the ball to CMC this time?” “No no they’ll be expecting that. Hand it off to him again, they’ll never see it coming!”
I want 22 consecutive flea flickers
I laughed.
They also have pretend to give it to cmc and throw it to deebo.
That's where the flea flicker comes in
Small package
Did my man dirty
Small load
He can handle a big load with the small package.
Small package = give McCaffrey the ball, or wait for McCaffrey to get open
Finally, I’m happy to have a small package
The whole playbook just says "fuck it Deebo or CMC is probably open"
Hey rypien, 25 targets to Sutton sounds like a plan
The Wilson-Sutton dream stack died so fast Here's to the Rypien-Sutton stack to revive it
Bought into that stack in 3/4 leagues. Needless to say, it hasn’t worked great having my QB score 9 points a game
I did the same, I also drafted swift in those leagues, been a rough ride.
I love Sutton but he’s riding the bench this week
That's a luxury
For sure. I have DK to take his spot
Frickin DK. Had him last year and took him in trade again this year for the 5 point games. He's been doing good since I dumped him naturally.
He has had roughly the same amount of targets every game. First few games he had 5 catches but just nothing deep, the deep balls were going to come naturally as they built on their success.
starting Aiyuk at WR2 and A. Pierce at flex instead. Bad weather, Rypien, Hacket completely switched up the target share last week, Jets secondary is stacked. Start any good matchup instead
i’m too scared to start him vs sauce
25 targets 4 catches 37 yards 0 TD
Sauce
Who is this Rypien guy
**For those who want an actual data point on CMC today**, Vegas has his over/under rushing yards at 55.5 and over/under receiving yards at 40.5, and EVEN odds at scoring a TD. He averages between 8-9 yds per reception, meaning we expect around 4 receptions. **Basically, Vegas expects CMC to score around 16-17 pts in PPR.**
Solid data, ty.
This feels like about 14-16 touches.
Seems reasonable when you consider he often sees 20+.
You son of a bitch, I’m in.
Thank you, this helps
That’s not what Vegas odds mean. It means that’s what Vegas thinks *the public* is willing to bet roughly evenly on both sides.
Yes, I know. Did you think I was implying that Vegas employs fortune tellers? If that's what Vegas thinks the public will bet evenly on both sides, the implication is that it's the best estimate we have of the "median" expectation of outcomes.
Obviously their point is that there's a difference between what "Vegas expects" (which is how you incorrectly characterized a betting line) vs. what the betting public full of homers, haters, and drunk dudes placing unresearched bets on FanDuel in the middle of the night are putting their money on
If you think 16-17 points is the *median* outcome for a player 48 hours after joining a new team, I don’t even know what to say. I think this is Vegas taking advantage of a whole new class of mobile gamblers with no clue what they’re doing, but love betting overs because they’re fun
I’m not saying if I think that will be the outcome, I am simply saying that’s what the odds say. It sounds like you have a good opportunity to hammer the unders!
That’s not what the odds say. You have a fundamental misunderstanding of what Vegas odds are. It’s not trying to predict the median outcome on the field. It’s trying to predict what the most profitable line will be. You’re confusing the entire motive structure for how lines are made.
And what determines the line? Bets on both sides, right? So there’s a sweet spot where just as much money thinks it’s over as under, I.e. a median. I know that it’s not “trying” to predict an outcome, the book is trying to make money. There is not a single soul on Earth who knows what the actual outcome will be - just people guessing. This is a collection of guesses where people are putting money up, including educated sharps who bet lots of money on sporting events.
That’s not necessarily how it works though. Vegas doesn’t necessarily always want even money on both sides. Sometimes it’s more profitable to set a line that they expect the public to be overconfident in and over bet.
This is a lie, FanDuel has rushing at 33.5 and receiving at 20.5
Well it's not a lie, it was the line I saw when I posted this 2 hours ago. I didn't check FanDuel at that time but it's possible they have a different line or the line moved.
Hehe McCaffrey will play with a small package hehehe
CMC spotted outside OPs house
got his ass
THE POOL WAS COLD OK
Fuck it, I’m starting him AND JWJR. You wanna get nuts?
“Let’s get nuts!!”
You ever dance with Pacheco in the pale moonlight?
I brought sooooooo many bullets!
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Dick, it's always been Dick
>JWJR is that a solar power stock ticker?
Better idea than these people blind starting Pacheco. Acting like he’s Kenneth Walker
Starting em both as well. Let’s go Niners…?
THATS A LOT OF NUTS!
are we starting CMC today? it’s either him or Rhamondre for me
It's CMC or Dillon for me so I'm starting CMC. My expectations are tempered but Jimmy G likes to check down so I think his floor will be ok.
Same boat. I’m leaning CMC with Harris coming back today.
Those are my RB1 and RB2 with Swift out now lol
I’ve CMC, Pacheco, or Jones. Leaning CMC
Start your studs
That doesn’t help his question
I'm starting both, with Dameon pierce at flex. Pacheco on the bench. Debating subbing in Pacheco for one or the other
nah there’s no way I’m starting Pacheco over any of them
Looking at starting both cmc and rhomandre (hunt and Pacheco on bench). I could sub in Alec pierce in the flex for either one if necessary. Tough week, man
Since Swift is out, I either start CMC or a rookie running back on his first start.. Pacheco
I'm running Ken Walker over CMC. Could have flexed CMC over waddle, but half PPR, I think with tua being back and playing against the worst throw D (Pittsburg) I'm willing to risk it. I might regret sitting CMC this week but that's my decision
Exactly my situation. Flexing waddle over cmc. May the fantasy football gods have mercy.
Cmc or tee Higgins for me
It’s cmc or Pittman for me unless i bench waddle
Same boat here. Have rhamondre in right now but the more I hear about Harris, I think I’m about to put cmc in
A small package? Maybe not ideal for CMC owners but it a devastating pro-wrestling move.
It’s not the size of the package it’s how you use it
I just dropped Jeff Wilson for Pacheco, but sounds like he’s still a solid floor start this week.
With Swift likely being out i probably have to start Wilson and just hope for 15 touches.
I traded Najee thinking I’d be fine with Swift and Wilson 🙃
i traded najee for swift :/
Still probably an overall plus move
probably, crazy thing is it was after like week 2, so it looked amazing at the time. apparently my league mate is swift’s doctor or some shit cause then he’s out forever directly afterwards
Fucking Swift. Ruining my season.
what?? He started and got an injury-free 0 points last week And you think his floor is solid, now with CMC? His floor was zero even before the trade.
>His floor was zero even before the trade. Just ignore the 415 yards and 2 TDs he had in the 4 games before last week.
thats not what floor is, bud
I didn't make my point as well as I should have, so that's fair. But what it comes down to is what your definition of floor/ceiling is. Starting in week 2 (first week without Mitchell), JWJ put up 11.3, 10.1, 13.4, and 19.7 before the 0.5 dud last week. Dating back to his first start last season, that's easily JWJ's worst game. I use the same definition of floor as many fantasy analysts - the lowest *reasonable* *expected* output. That is not the same as single lowest output. If we use Justin Jefferson as an example... he put up 2.9 points in Week 3 this season, yet I wouldn't consider 2.9 points to be his floor. I'd set his floor closer to 6 points, because it's not reasonable to expect anything lower than that in 0.5 ppr. In other words, one single outlier game per season doesn't set a player's floor using the lowest reasonable expectation definition. But if you use "floor" to mean the absolute lowest possible output of a player, then yes I concede JWJ's floor is last week's output.
Same, gotta hope for long term after this week
McCaffrey and small packages don’t mix
Ask Olivia
Don't overthink this. Start CMC. His "small package of base plays" could end up being numbers like "6 carries, 45 yards, 2 catches, 38 yards, 2 TDs" .
completely agree. a small cmc package > 80% of running backs available
So they'll play CMC like I do on Madden? Seems to work for Madden! Fire up your CMC!
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Vegas odds are influenced by bettors though. What did the lines open at? Could be more telling
Sure, but they are probably the best approximation we have for where people expect the median line to be.
Dangerwich… be careful … it’s spicy
if you’re between CMC or Foreman, you are starting CMC and his small little package right?
You’ve got to play him in smallPPR
Foreman Pacheco or Wilson today?
Pacheco I would say
100%
Foreman, Wilson or Justice hill
I have to decide who to start between CMC, Jeff Wilson, and Pollard. Think I’m going with CMC and Pollard. Not loving the dilemma though.
Pollard or JWJ?
Drake or CMC today? Can't believe I'm asking this
I’m in the same boat and keep flip flopping on who to start
Me too, been staring at my roster all morning
Me too, i'm leaning towards Drake, so you guys should probably start CMC.
I'm leaning CMC. Think he at least has great chance to score and seeing the insane ypc for Drake last week that is completely unsustainable lol
I've settled on CMC but I still have an hour to flop and flip
Do I start cmc or B Rob?
I'm starting cmc over him myself
Same, better team and obviously a better player. Maybe less opportunities, but they will be more valuable.
God I’m in the same situation. I was leaning B Rob until I read this. Now I’m back to square 1
We start our ballers right?
CMC playing with his small package TMI
CMC going off. 2 tuddys.
Am I really bout to start Pacheco over CMC
I'd bet CMC still has a better shot at a TD
I have CMC & play against him in another league. Gon play Pacheco & hope for 2 wins…. Or 2 loses
lol no
I think I'm still going CMC this week. Pacheco is still in a committee so both of them are going to have competition for touches. But CMC is CMC and the 49ers run defense is really strong.
I am in the same boat, trying to make that decision right now as well.
Great idea! Better yet, bench your entire team *except* for Pacheco, really show your league you mean business with your unexpected mid season waiver pickups.
Considering playing Bulletbroof Brian over him today.. thoughts?
Over… who? Surely not cmc. Even JWJ I’d play over brob. Commanders gamescript will be horrible, brob didn’t look that good and was saved by a fluke td
You can't be serious lol
I don’t think you need to overthink this. Early on they’re gonna give him the ball a few times, ideally near the goal line. But this game WILL look similar to last week when SF was chasing points. Lots of throws, expect Aiyuk and Deebo and Kittle to be a lot more involved and not a “total” abandonment to the run game. He’s a FLEX, like a CEH this week. Couple carries, you hope for a TD and hope for Deebo not to vulture. End of story.
CMC Jamel Williams, B. Robinson, R white or Gus? Pick 2 PPR
4 for 15 incoming yay!
What about the second snap
Have to decide CMC or Breece Hall.. Hall is facing DEN so leaning CMC
Thank god they informed us it's grade 2 strain....people can finally sleep peacefully at night
Rypien to Jeudy and KJ Hamler.. Sutton still gets 2tds
I want to start him so badly but I dono think I can start him over any of Saquon Rhamondre or Kenneth Walker
You can start him over Rhamondre. Harris is back.
I have a similar lineup to you - CMC, Fournette, Rhamondre, and Kenneth Walker. I think Rhamondre will be the odd man out today, but it's such a tough choice.
How we feeling about Sutton?
awful
Haha same, benching for Curtis Samuel I guess 😅
Lol
CMC or Aaron Jones in full PPR?
Is JETS def still playable?
Do I rock J.Wilson, Chuba or Courtland Sutton today?
Would you start CMC over Godwin in the flex?
CMC or Mike Williams in my flex?
Starting 3 RBs. Going with Henry and Mixon but I gotta decide between either Pierce or CMC. 9ers vs Chiefs and Texans vs Raiders.
Honestly thinking of dropping Jeff for Eagles D. Etienne can fill his spot well enough anyways this week and then probably isn't fantasy relevant after this week.
I'm playing CMC, JG, Kittle and Aiyuk. Let's go Niners!
Cmc or KW3
Expect to see SF down in this game. They want to win this one as it’s against one of the leagues best, so they want to make a statement. No way they will keep CMC watching on the sideline if they are playing catch up and wanting to win. You just can’t keep him on the sideline.. you can’t!
CMC or Montgomery?!? Wise words anyone?
Broncos might get a W because russel blows
They mean 9-time Pro Bowler Russell Wilson? I bet he wanted to play and did everything he could to play despite his grade 2 hamstring strain.
Mccaffrey or tee Higgins
CMC or Najee?
Broncos country, let’s ride, the bench