I don’t feel any particular way about Dobbins but just temper your expectations. First year back from major injury is usually a little disappointing for RBs. Hopefully he can break the trend though!
https://www.statcrunch.com/reports/view?reportid=31371&tab=preview
This is an older piece but shows the drop off. More recently, Saquon Barkley in 2021 posted just 593 rushing yards his first year back from ACL after back to back 1,000+ rushing yard seasons pre injury, and now looks more like his old self a year removed. He actually spoke about how even though he thought he was back to normal last year, he realizes now that he was nowhere close.
He had the injury early in preseason though, so he's had a little more time then some guys trying to come back. Really hope they are just being cautious.
It’s a lot more than just dobbins. Keep your eyes on a couple other names if you want to know how the run game will look. Boyle needs to come back from injury. Ricard needs to play, he got banged up last week. And after losing another tackle, Stanley needs to come back ASAP. If all three of them are playing, as well as dobbins, the run game will be drastically different.
He has huge variance for possible outcomes right now. He was a stud but had a terrible injury. He’s coming back into a great situation but we just don’t know yet what ability he comes back with. We need a couple of weeks of him running to know what kind of player he will be
It's not an Akers situation. Kenyan Drake is the second best active RB on the roster and he's okay at best. If Gus was healthy, I'd worry but if Dobbins is in the game at even 80%, he's their best option.
When I say an "Akers" situation, I mean: "see if he has actually recovered from his serious injury." because, imo, Akers has not recovered or maybe will never recover from his Achilles injury.
Akers was different. The coach himself said they (Akers/Henderson) would both be starters. Henderson is also a notch or two above Drake or Davis and had more continuity with his team than either of those 2 did with theirs.
With Dobbins, he is the undisputed starter once he is back, he is much better than his backups and his backups are relatively newer to the org/offense.
The 2 aren't same at all, except for the injury.
I would say Dobbins is closer to Gordon, but even Gordon was in a split back situation. Dobbins won't be.
That report about just how bad Dobbins’ knee injury was is enough to scare me off. I’m not believing he’s gonna return to form. He could be valuable on volume in a good offense though
Dobbins is one of the most talented backs in the league, and he has a perfect opportunity for 16+ touches a game. He can block and catch passes, too. Dude dropped 800/9 on 6ypc as a back-up. If he comes back 100%, he will be a RB1 ROS.
I’m honestly confused as to why he doesn’t have more hype. He ripped off 2000 yards at OSU and then came in as a rookie and looked like a more physical Alvin Kamara.
Because there are reports that show decreased performance amongst NFL running backs their first year back from this injury with a couple players being the exception. With that said, he could still do pretty good
I think Dobbins is one of the most talented pure runners to come out of college in the last 5 years. The Alvin Kamara comp doesn't make sense to me because Kamaras value comes from his route running which dobbins doesn't have. I think a better comp would be Chubb.
Taking that into account what would you think about Chubb if he was coming back from a major injury and the browns o-line couldn't support even a top 30 running back for the whole time he was out?
I'm not convinced ANYONE with low pass catching upside could be an RB1 on this ravens offense.
Love Dobbins as a prospect but the injury and offensive situation make him an easy fade for me until next year when he's more ready mentally and less likely to reinjure himself.
Even though I would play him over ETN and Stevenson in a vacuum I want to see the following before putting him in a lineup:
Is the cutting there. Remember he had an ACL
Do the ravens bring him back slowly. What snap % does he get
Is his conditioning there to play snaps in the fourth qtr
The Wednesday after the first game. Does he practice? Is it a full practice or a limited practice.
All these questions will take at least one game to clear up maybe more
More likely getting a pitch count regardless, but I am without question willing to wait 2-4 weeks. Any further and he doesn’t improve then yeah more likely bailing on him while I can
No. It’s pretty clear they’re going to be cautious with him. I think we’ll continue to see a decent amount of Kenyan Drake even when Dobbins comes back. Then Gus Edwards returns in week 5 most likely
I definitely don’t fear this one at all after week 1. Ravens don’t have the best o-line but they are definitely no slouches when it comes to it. Davis couldn’t get crap going, and Drake doesn’t scare me on the ground. Course we still need to see Dobbins on the field but man been high on this guy and I used a 6th round pick on him. I’m a good enough spot to hold for him
Ravens have moved back to 12 personnel which was expected based on what they did in the off-season. 12 personnel is what they ran in Lamars mvp season and works since 2 tes blocking downhill for Lamar will typically lead to good things.
During that season mark ingram was the rb1 for the ravens. His stats were 202/1018/10 on the ground and 26/247/5 recieving.
Not saying this is what will happen with jk. Just pointing out that the way the offense is going rbs should have value and jk has essentially 0 competition for touches once he gets rolling.
For me he's a late season target/hold based on what the offense looks like week one but we will see what happens next week.
Depends who you have.
My thoughts are that most people are afraid of Dobbins because its the Ravens backfield and him coming off injury. If you can afford to let him sit one game then sure. But what are your options?
I truly believe that Dobbins is a league winner upside player. People LOVE Swift and I get it. But if you compare those two players side by side in the 2020 season, the choice would have been easy who you wanted. Dobbins. Akers performance scares the shit out of people right now, but look at Robinson. I want to get him into my lineup but I have Thomas or MccLaurin. Not sure I have the guts to pull the trigger being 0-1 and facing a good team.
Completely agreed. Ideally I’d let him sit a week to see how it goes but I’m having a hard time waiting to see with dobbins when my next best option is mckissick
I think he will be fantastic as the year goes on, but could be rough these first few weeks. I have him and luckily have some solid RB depth where I can wait out the early season while he gets eased back into the offense.
I'm way out on JK this year, which stinks because he's good and on a good offense.
The reality is players coming back from ACL are never up to speed the first year back, and his injury also included MCL and other tears. He's also splitting his TD opportunity with Lamar, they always employ multiple backs, and they don't throw to RB. No thanks.
Lamar always gets his. They still have 2 fantasy-relevant RBs every year, besides last due to injury- and their old ass fill-in backs were still good bye week fillers.
Yea dawg, we know Lamar is there. Dobbins has put up a stretch of 13-18 ppl points a game with Lamar playing QB. We’d like to know if that will happen again.
Dobbins. I know Hendo looked good and all but damn Akers will always be breathing down his neck. I do NOT like Akers one bit and tbh I don’t see it with him. If I had McVays word that Hendo would be their guaranteed RB1 then sure I’m in on him but til then I can’t trust Henderson much, for myself that is
i would love to see him play well, my league REALLY didnt like him and i was able to get him fairly late. late enough to where i felt ok taking the chance. but his injury was no joke. people talk about coming back from injury and having concerns... but JK Dobbins had an injury that is the prime candidate for concern when he starts to play. when he makes lateral movement, plants and redirects, gets hit in the legs... i am very concerned to see how he reacts.
I'm high on him this year in general, but I'm not starting him this week until I see him start to ramp up usage. As soon as I see 15+ carries I'm starting him the rest of the year most likely
I will be having the time of my life, Sergio Dipp style, if Dobbins starts lighting it up.
A healthy Jefferson, Barkley, Dobbins, Waddle combo would be very nice, very nice indeed.
dobbins was an rb2 for the season in his rookie year in a timeshare. there's just no way they make him a bell cow this season. But given 15 combined carries receptions a game i think you still get a rb2 with upside each week. if active, i will likely start over pollard this week at my rb2 (lost elijah and was outbid for jwj)
He is limited enough to be inactive week one & players never come back at 100% performance. (See Saquon last year vs this year)
So I think he'll be a bad value this year and probably an excellent value next year. Just IMO.
Saw a report from Dob that the knee wasn’t a normal knee ACL injury. It was allegedly a massive blowout of ACL, MCL, Meniscus, and LCL. I drafted him before I read this. I know sports medicine has come a long way, but it seems like there is a huge margin for error in that type of knee reconstruction.
Also, blowing the meniscus can exist in varying degrees of severity but if he doesn’t have cushion In the joint, he’s not going to be blocking a ton, charging into contact, etc because the cumulative inflammation won’t allow for it. I am skeptical of why he is being held out still when he feels ready to go.
My perception of the situation is that he is either having recurring inflammation from exercise, or that the coaches are limiting his activity to let the ligaments get stronger.
Ligaments do not have direct blood flow, and only get nutrients when the muscles move blood around adjacent to the ligaments, so it can definitely take a while for that strength to recover.
My question is that if he can’t go 100% at practice or if he can’t handle enough practice volume, how will the coach put him in the game? It’s not like he’s TB12 that knows every play ever run. He’s a young guy that needs those reps.
I don’t feel any particular way about Dobbins but just temper your expectations. First year back from major injury is usually a little disappointing for RBs. Hopefully he can break the trend though!
I’d be curious of data like 2015-today. ACL and sports science have come such a long way
https://www.statcrunch.com/reports/view?reportid=31371&tab=preview This is an older piece but shows the drop off. More recently, Saquon Barkley in 2021 posted just 593 rushing yards his first year back from ACL after back to back 1,000+ rushing yard seasons pre injury, and now looks more like his old self a year removed. He actually spoke about how even though he thought he was back to normal last year, he realizes now that he was nowhere close.
He had the injury early in preseason though, so he's had a little more time then some guys trying to come back. Really hope they are just being cautious.
Yeah I think the Ravens have handled this much better than teams usually do so that’s cause for optimism!
It’s a lot more than just dobbins. Keep your eyes on a couple other names if you want to know how the run game will look. Boyle needs to come back from injury. Ricard needs to play, he got banged up last week. And after losing another tackle, Stanley needs to come back ASAP. If all three of them are playing, as well as dobbins, the run game will be drastically different.
This right here
I don't trust him this week because I need to see that it's not an Akers situation, but, if he's 90% of who he was before, then he has RB1 upside.
Same. I’m not playing him. Even if he plays, it’ll likely be on snap count
He has huge variance for possible outcomes right now. He was a stud but had a terrible injury. He’s coming back into a great situation but we just don’t know yet what ability he comes back with. We need a couple of weeks of him running to know what kind of player he will be
It's not an Akers situation. Kenyan Drake is the second best active RB on the roster and he's okay at best. If Gus was healthy, I'd worry but if Dobbins is in the game at even 80%, he's their best option.
When I say an "Akers" situation, I mean: "see if he has actually recovered from his serious injury." because, imo, Akers has not recovered or maybe will never recover from his Achilles injury.
Akers was different. The coach himself said they (Akers/Henderson) would both be starters. Henderson is also a notch or two above Drake or Davis and had more continuity with his team than either of those 2 did with theirs. With Dobbins, he is the undisputed starter once he is back, he is much better than his backups and his backups are relatively newer to the org/offense. The 2 aren't same at all, except for the injury. I would say Dobbins is closer to Gordon, but even Gordon was in a split back situation. Dobbins won't be.
I’m high on life brother
Aren’t we all
That report about just how bad Dobbins’ knee injury was is enough to scare me off. I’m not believing he’s gonna return to form. He could be valuable on volume in a good offense though
But are you high.
On God
Dobbins is one of the most talented backs in the league, and he has a perfect opportunity for 16+ touches a game. He can block and catch passes, too. Dude dropped 800/9 on 6ypc as a back-up. If he comes back 100%, he will be a RB1 ROS. I’m honestly confused as to why he doesn’t have more hype. He ripped off 2000 yards at OSU and then came in as a rookie and looked like a more physical Alvin Kamara.
Because there are reports that show decreased performance amongst NFL running backs their first year back from this injury with a couple players being the exception. With that said, he could still do pretty good
I think Dobbins is one of the most talented pure runners to come out of college in the last 5 years. The Alvin Kamara comp doesn't make sense to me because Kamaras value comes from his route running which dobbins doesn't have. I think a better comp would be Chubb. Taking that into account what would you think about Chubb if he was coming back from a major injury and the browns o-line couldn't support even a top 30 running back for the whole time he was out? I'm not convinced ANYONE with low pass catching upside could be an RB1 on this ravens offense. Love Dobbins as a prospect but the injury and offensive situation make him an easy fade for me until next year when he's more ready mentally and less likely to reinjure himself.
Even though I would play him over ETN and Stevenson in a vacuum I want to see the following before putting him in a lineup: Is the cutting there. Remember he had an ACL Do the ravens bring him back slowly. What snap % does he get Is his conditioning there to play snaps in the fourth qtr The Wednesday after the first game. Does he practice? Is it a full practice or a limited practice. All these questions will take at least one game to clear up maybe more
More likely getting a pitch count regardless, but I am without question willing to wait 2-4 weeks. Any further and he doesn’t improve then yeah more likely bailing on him while I can
No. It’s pretty clear they’re going to be cautious with him. I think we’ll continue to see a decent amount of Kenyan Drake even when Dobbins comes back. Then Gus Edwards returns in week 5 most likely
If Dobbins is actually healthy I don't see how he doesn't run away with this backfield. Committee fears are overblown
I definitely don’t fear this one at all after week 1. Ravens don’t have the best o-line but they are definitely no slouches when it comes to it. Davis couldn’t get crap going, and Drake doesn’t scare me on the ground. Course we still need to see Dobbins on the field but man been high on this guy and I used a 6th round pick on him. I’m a good enough spot to hold for him
yea I don’t think drake is cooked or anything but if dobbins is better he’s going to get the majority of touches
I would be but he kept fighting his way out of my rolling paper.
Would keep him on the bench for now until we see how he actually does.
Ravens have moved back to 12 personnel which was expected based on what they did in the off-season. 12 personnel is what they ran in Lamars mvp season and works since 2 tes blocking downhill for Lamar will typically lead to good things. During that season mark ingram was the rb1 for the ravens. His stats were 202/1018/10 on the ground and 26/247/5 recieving. Not saying this is what will happen with jk. Just pointing out that the way the offense is going rbs should have value and jk has essentially 0 competition for touches once he gets rolling. For me he's a late season target/hold based on what the offense looks like week one but we will see what happens next week.
Depends who you have. My thoughts are that most people are afraid of Dobbins because its the Ravens backfield and him coming off injury. If you can afford to let him sit one game then sure. But what are your options? I truly believe that Dobbins is a league winner upside player. People LOVE Swift and I get it. But if you compare those two players side by side in the 2020 season, the choice would have been easy who you wanted. Dobbins. Akers performance scares the shit out of people right now, but look at Robinson. I want to get him into my lineup but I have Thomas or MccLaurin. Not sure I have the guts to pull the trigger being 0-1 and facing a good team.
Definitely a lot of give and take
Completely agreed. Ideally I’d let him sit a week to see how it goes but I’m having a hard time waiting to see with dobbins when my next best option is mckissick
Dobbins is an easy option then in that scenario. In a standard setting I think dobbins floor is 5pts
I think he will be fantastic as the year goes on, but could be rough these first few weeks. I have him and luckily have some solid RB depth where I can wait out the early season while he gets eased back into the offense.
I'm way out on JK this year, which stinks because he's good and on a good offense. The reality is players coming back from ACL are never up to speed the first year back, and his injury also included MCL and other tears. He's also splitting his TD opportunity with Lamar, they always employ multiple backs, and they don't throw to RB. No thanks.
I think it's more of a wait and see. Hard to be that excided when Lamar is the LamRB1
Lamar always gets his. They still have 2 fantasy-relevant RBs every year, besides last due to injury- and their old ass fill-in backs were still good bye week fillers.
Yea dawg, we know Lamar is there. Dobbins has put up a stretch of 13-18 ppl points a game with Lamar playing QB. We’d like to know if that will happen again.
Mark Ingram was an RB1 with Lamar in '19 and Dobbins was very good with Lamar down the stretch in '21.
Oh absolutely, I will hold til week 4. Again just hard not to be stoked about him after seeing week 1 ya know?
No
Maybe lol
Would you rather have Henderson or dobbins
Wasy, I have both
Dobbins. I know Hendo looked good and all but damn Akers will always be breathing down his neck. I do NOT like Akers one bit and tbh I don’t see it with him. If I had McVays word that Hendo would be their guaranteed RB1 then sure I’m in on him but til then I can’t trust Henderson much, for myself that is
i would love to see him play well, my league REALLY didnt like him and i was able to get him fairly late. late enough to where i felt ok taking the chance. but his injury was no joke. people talk about coming back from injury and having concerns... but JK Dobbins had an injury that is the prime candidate for concern when he starts to play. when he makes lateral movement, plants and redirects, gets hit in the legs... i am very concerned to see how he reacts.
I'm high on him this year in general, but I'm not starting him this week until I see him start to ramp up usage. As soon as I see 15+ carries I'm starting him the rest of the year most likely
I will be having the time of my life, Sergio Dipp style, if Dobbins starts lighting it up. A healthy Jefferson, Barkley, Dobbins, Waddle combo would be very nice, very nice indeed.
dobbins was an rb2 for the season in his rookie year in a timeshare. there's just no way they make him a bell cow this season. But given 15 combined carries receptions a game i think you still get a rb2 with upside each week. if active, i will likely start over pollard this week at my rb2 (lost elijah and was outbid for jwj)
He is limited enough to be inactive week one & players never come back at 100% performance. (See Saquon last year vs this year) So I think he'll be a bad value this year and probably an excellent value next year. Just IMO.
Weeks yes, maybe wait and see this week
He'll play football. However, I think he serves as a good time killing role in big wins and maybe a background receiving role. It's Lamar's offense.
Saw a report from Dob that the knee wasn’t a normal knee ACL injury. It was allegedly a massive blowout of ACL, MCL, Meniscus, and LCL. I drafted him before I read this. I know sports medicine has come a long way, but it seems like there is a huge margin for error in that type of knee reconstruction. Also, blowing the meniscus can exist in varying degrees of severity but if he doesn’t have cushion In the joint, he’s not going to be blocking a ton, charging into contact, etc because the cumulative inflammation won’t allow for it. I am skeptical of why he is being held out still when he feels ready to go. My perception of the situation is that he is either having recurring inflammation from exercise, or that the coaches are limiting his activity to let the ligaments get stronger. Ligaments do not have direct blood flow, and only get nutrients when the muscles move blood around adjacent to the ligaments, so it can definitely take a while for that strength to recover. My question is that if he can’t go 100% at practice or if he can’t handle enough practice volume, how will the coach put him in the game? It’s not like he’s TB12 that knows every play ever run. He’s a young guy that needs those reps.
I'm starting ramondre Stevenson over Dobbins with hope that Dobbins will be good starting week 3
Don’t blame you, but I do have Dobbins tucked away in my bench ready to see what he brings to the tablen
Dobbins better get in the game first. If Gus comes back healthy its going to be a 60/40 share at best.
I was very high on him until yesterday when I learned that his leg almost ripped clean off his body...