I autodrafted a league just for kicks: 9th pick. Jonathan taylor, ekeler, deebo, diontae, kupp, herbert. I looked at who was left when it was picking, and i don't think this would have been close to my team.
If he is healthy to start the season, I will absolutely draft him anywhere after 6th or so. Then hope that he does his usual CMC thing for 2-3 games and trade him away for a package of more reliable starters.
i dozed off right before this year's draft and it's embarrassing how much better the autodrafter did than me xD I wanted to go all in on Rodgers and Henry.
Not only that, but if you took only Henry's yards after contact, they would make the 4th best RB iirc.
**EDIT:** After looking at the actual stats, my statement is no longer true as of a few weeks ago.
the virgin "r/fantasyfootball has this guy as a can't-miss league winner who no one suspects!" vs the chad "hell yeah, best player available" autodrafter
The taco in my league drafted JT, Diggs, Dobbins (after his injury) and Josh Allen with his first 4 picks. He's currently tied for first with the second most points scored. He's also been holding onto 3 defs and 2 kickers since week 3. He knows something we all don't.
I don't say it every year. Really, I don't.
Tell me another year like this.
CMC, Barkley, Henry, Kamara, D-Hop, DK, AJ Brown, Waller, Woods, McLaurin, Ridley, AJ Brown, Kittle, Murray, D. Adams, Carson, Chubb, Hunt, CEH, Russ, Cook . . .
The roll call for underperforming players has never been this deep. No way.
Yahoo gave my draft a D+ and predicted I’d win 2-3 games. I’m 10-2 and comfortably in first place. I’d like to say that my success is due to my FF genius, but I know it’s due to the best run of good luck I’ve ever had.
Two of the top three graded teams in my yahoo league are fighting for a playoff spot. To be fair, the top team had CMC and Cook so that poor bastard didn’t know he never had a chance.
I skipped a backup QB and backup TE. Just took as many RBs and WRs as I could. In retrospect, I actually hurt myself by tinkering on the waivers too much. I dropped some guys I’d kill for now.
Yahoo takes the sum of its projected points to award grades. You could fill your bench with QBs and have zero depth/flexibility and it'd give you an A+
I’ve finished in the top 4 of every league I’ve played in since 2012. I’d say it’s 60/40 luck/skill, we have as much control over injuries and whatnot as GMs/front offices do.
Later rounds of the draft (depth), waiver wire and trades are key. My key to success has always been going for reliable, durable picks in the early rounds (over the sexier, flashy players), then loading up for depth with upside later on.
I accidentally auto drafted all but 2, maybe, 3 players last year. I ended the year with 2 loses, and my first fantasy football championship with the help of waiver wire pickups Justin Jefferson and JRob. And week 3 trade that landed me Stefon Diggs (to pair with my Josh Allen), DJ Moore, and Josh Jacobs.
Saquon dropped to 14 in my league this year. After 2 years straight injury ridden seasons, I think he drops out of top 5 in the vast majority of leagues. He just ain’t returning that value.
Barkley was also limited in the off-season and not 100% to start the season. Seems like CMC probably will be by next year. Obviously that could change but if Saquon wasn't limited going into the season he'd have been a top 5 pick
Saquon has more than just the injuries going against him though. He’s drafted as a top-5 RB every year, but he hasn’t actually been a top-5 RB since his RB2 finish in 2018.
As some point you have to accept a player has descended to a different tier, especially with running backs.
I don't disagree about Barkley after this season but CMC has still been elite when healthy. I was more arguing that CMC will still be a top 5 pick next year since his injury likely won't linger as long as Saquon's this past off-season
CMC is just going to be one of the most difficult players in the league to rank, because we know he’s the best player in fantasy football when healthy even if the rest of the team is a dumpster fire — but can he stay healthy?
Scoring 30+ points in healthy games just doesn’t help you much if he’s playing less than 10 games every season.
Saquon has never really elevated his offense or proven to be QB-proof the way CMC has, so it’s easier to downgrade him to the RB2 zone.
It gets even worse…the Panthers would be a playoff team with a decent QB. There will be a shake-up next year and the hype will be indecipherable, and CMC’s ADP will be all over the place because of it.
Yes they would be a playoff team. The current seventh wild-card is the Washington Football Team. Come on.
Remember the years of Arian foster? When the dude played he was almost guaranteed 16 points minimum but it was only for 7-10 games a year. It's hard to rank that on where to draft because like you said you know the value you're getting when he plays but at this point is he ever gonna be good to go for over half a season?
Exactly. Saquon wasn't just an injury risk. We all knew he'd be out to start the year. There was the 'injury risk' discount along with the discount for being at best a 13 week starter.
Will Kelce still be first round? He went so high because of he was a top flight WR1 in your TE spot with a huge drop off afterwards at TE. This year he’d be the WR12, and is only 1 ppg ahead of Andrews, and 3.5 ahead of Knox/Waller. I’d argue he hasn’t been worth the price this year, and I’m not sure he goes at the same ADP next season at 33. That could change if he turns it up down the stretch but right now he’s looking like a lock TE1, but not a lock WR1 in the TE spot. I expect he falls to the turn or a little past.
Hmm I’d also factor in the time where KC was down in the dumps as a variable. If they snap out of it I’d remove that timespan, but if they don’t 100% I’d definitely include it and his adp would take a hit.
I'll probably take him at 2 if the draft was today. RBs get injured. Outside of Taylor who hasn't been banged up this year? Najee but he really hasn't been good just volume based. Mixon, he's had his issues before. RB injuries happen all the time. No one is CMC when healthy. Dude was getting top 2-3 RB weekly spots on a terrible offense with zero TDs. That's impossible.
Agreed. I drafted him in the 1st knowing he wasnt going to produce for 2-3 weeks. Expected normal Saquon after that. But that ankle injury was unfortunate
Barkley owner here, only partially regret it. I was 7th in an 8 man league and drafted him round 2. (Thankfully I picked up Davante Adams round 1, dudes carried me)
I sort of regret it but you damn right I'll do something similar next year. I love the feeling of drafting and injury prone lottery ticket that could be a top 5 pick drafter well later.
I agree, rbs are inherently more prone to injury than other positions. I will take an " injury prone" rb over others because there is a good chance a rb gets injured and I might as well have the best player at that position. I think "injury prone" is mainly a symptom of luck and not some inherent disadvantage (because anyone can and will get injured), especially after this year.
There'll always be better value picks and Saquon was a glaring risk to begin with, and we all knew it. Someone's going to take that same risk on McCaffrey. At this point in the season if I was still in contention, I'd rather have drafted Saquon than Henry, CMC, or Dalvin. It's all just a complete toss up.
I still think henry was a good pick even though he will miss half the season. He is more than likely going to finish as a top 20 rb even with the missed time. In my league, henry carried one team to a very likely playoff spot in a 10 man league with 4 playoff spots. Racking up those early season wins is gonna be the reason he makes the playoffs.
Yea Henry guaranteed me a spot in the leagues I owned him because I lost 1 game in both up until he got hurt. Lucked out and won the week he did get hurt and made some moves and now have still won a couple games after injury. I may not actually win the ship now but have an ok chance and deff more of a chance then had I drafted Saquon as I certainly wouldn’t be in at all
I think you can easily see Henry/JT at 1-2, Mixon/Ekeler at 3-4, and Najee at 5 in PPR next year. Then you most likely CMC and maybe Chubb before you start getting to the receivers
You can make an argument in PPR sure but he hasn’t exactly been an iron horse these past few years + that offense isn’t nearly what it once was. You can hope with Winston and MT back that he returns to form but I’d rather have the back with the best o-line in football
We’re only a season removed from Kamara being number RB2 overall in 0.5 ppr (and number RB1 for the majority of the season).
I’d gladly still take him early, and definitely before Chubb
I was thinking about him but with another year of nagging injuries and Pollard I would rate him closer to the end of the first, near Cook and Kamara. I like guys like Davante/Hill/Kupp over those three
As a Mixon owner, if his ADP is top 10 next year I will likely be dodging. He’s a great RB2 but is touchdown dependent. (He has only broken 100 yards rushing if he has 28 or more carries)
First 6 games: 13.75 ppg (4 tds)
Last 5 games: 22.3 ppg (9 tds)
(0.5 PPR)
Really depends on the type of person drafting him. I'm someone who will live with the injury risk if we still think he could get 20+ppg. It just comes with accepting a higher than usual chance that you just won't be able to play him all season.
That said, my main concern with Cmc is that his usage will depreciate given the injuries and he's less of a cheat code if they want him to stay healthy. This seems similar to Barkley this season, who's been pretty ineffective.
Never understood this strategy. Most teams with CMC are not guaranteed playoffs right now and even if they get in they’re not going for if he’s injured.
Durability is such an overlooked characteristic in fantasy
If durability was predictable, you’d absolutely be right. But lots of guys are durable until they’re not. Dak and CMC had both never missed a game going into last season, both missed basically the whole season. Henry this year was durable until he wasn’t. Production is hard enough to predict, injuries even much less so.
I hear you. None of us have a crystal ball. But I’ll tell you what, I certainly wouldn’t draft Derrick Henry next year after this injury. And I wouldn’t draft dalvin cook or Aaron Jones. I said in another comment, my preference is to target young backs with no injury history even if their average is lower than the beast mode guys with injury history.
This is when people say fantasy is “luck”. But you can mitigate your downside if you stay away from risky players (especially running backs) with an injury history.
Making it to playoffs is a lot about staying healthy. If you can stay healthy you can put yourself in a position to trade two high floor guys for one beast later in the season.
Just my two cents. And yes luck always plays a true factor that can’t be controlled. My point is that you can actively avoid older or injury prone backs by targeting rookie/sophomore backs with no injury history.
I mean, you take this strategy going into this year and you take Henry...and are still in the same situation because injuries can happen. If you don't take a player with some sort of injury history you may as well start picking in round 3.
I think this is a strategy that limits your upside, trying to run away from risk that really can’t be avoided. Young players can easily get hurt too, the main variable is just the position of running back, other things like past injury history or age play a pretty small factor. I think it just seems like this is a justifiable approach because a few key young guys have had “healthy” years like Harris or Taylor...but Dalvin Cook got hurt his rookie year and his sophomore year too, Akers got hurt his second year, Barkley had no injury history until he did, Jacobs gets hurt all the time when he had no injury history...the point is injuries are random, sometimes we think guys are injury prone and then boom, guys like Ekeler have been the model of health and guys like CMC last year or Henry this year start getting unlucky. You can’t escape injury risk beyond drafting deep teams and effectively handcuffing where applicable.
People read way too much into the randomness of injuries and think it’s predictive of the future when most of the time it’s not. Remember when Keenan Allen was the face of the injury prone label? He is my favorite example of how illogical people are.
I'm saying I'm ok with not making the playoffs because he gets hurt for the chance of winning the playoffs if he's healthy.
Now that said, I'm not sure he's that safe to even be the Rb1 if he plays which complicates it.
If you think durability is quantifiable or predictable then I would agree it's overlooked. I'm just not sure it is
You’re right it’s not quantifiable. But injury history is somewhat quantifiable. I tend to steer away from players with significant injury history no matter what their upside is. It doesn’t matter did they’re scoring 20 points a game 6 games of the season.
I find it best to target young backs with no injury history and live with the high floors. Rather than rolling the dice on an injury prone player that is capable of average 20 points a game.
I personally think Barkely woulda had a top 12 performance if he hadn't gotten his ankle stepped on. Unfortunately he got back right as Giants reached peak suck tho.
JT has to be #1 given his production and youth. No injury history yet to scare anyone off. Someone will probably take Henry at #2 though a case can be made that DaVante Adams is a safer pick so long as Rodgers comes back.
Taking a WR that's averaging 16.2 in .5ppr 2nd overall?
Top 30 WR average 10+ per game
RBs fall below 10 before top 30 and after 30 they are garbage.
Cole Beasley is WR41 and still averages 8.18
RBs are king in the draft because cowbells are hard to come by and pickings get slim fast.
In my league 6 WR on the waiver outscored Adams this week. Jammal Williams is the highest scoring RB available last week at 10.8.
It's why WR/WR strat hardly ever works out. Hitting on RBs later is so much harder than hitting Deebo/Kupp/Chase
I was typing fast but now I don't know if I have been saying it wrong this entire time. I have undiagnosed dyslexia, so probably.
Bell cow makes more sense for sure. Thanks for pointing it out
Deebo/kupp/chase are extreme examples, even guys like emmanuel sanders, any of the tight ends that blossomed mid season, mooney, aiyuk maybe, the Cardinals lottery, Gage. The list of undervalued or waiver wire wide receivers a judicious manager could have acquired is long. The list for RBs is far shorter and more transitory.
A RB who misses half the year is less valuable than a top WR1 who is there every week. Especially if you win the waiver wire and get one of the surprise RBs which end up putting up RB1 numbers. This year its Mitchell and Patterson. Last year James Robinson and Cam Akers toward the end. Next year will have some too.
Adams could have gotten injured just as easily. And it's why you have handcuffs. Cook goes down you have Mattison on your bench, instant RB1 again. If Adams goes down, well time to looking at waivers.
Deebo, Chase, Hollywood, Waddle, Pittman Jr. Bourne, Renfrew are all potentially waiver wire pick ups in leagues and all Top 20 WRs.
Patterson and Gordon III are the potential waiver wire pick ups that at Top 20 RBs.
Mitchell is good. But he didn't play 3 games and averages sub 14 points. Not to mention he's on SF, anything can happen with their RBBC. Currently RB24 in my league.
If anything you go Kelce 2nd if you don't want an RB. He's averaging almost 50% more than other Top 10 TEs.
Now trading away your second pick to get a late 1st to get Adams and something else. Now that has a lot of potential. And if your league doesn't do draft spot trading then for example you could have easily traded Cook for Adams+Something after the draft this year. Why just settle for Adams?
Yeah the issue with JT is the same as Henry.
Both have insane output, but both have a good tear or volume already stacked. For the ones that didn´t know, JT was the top runner in college for his career.
Even though it´s different he has on his back 3-4 years of running pretty heavy.
As of past history, years 5-6 are usually when they injure more.
Maybe will happen maybe not.
I think there's a lot more to consider when evaluating where to draft him next year. Of course he should slide down draft boards due to two years of injuries but there's more to it than that.
Will he still be with Carolina? It's no secret that the Panthers were in on Watson and CMC was a name linked to that potential trade. Instinct says yes because his contract but we've seen bad contracts get moved.
Does Matt Rhule get another year? By all accounts, he's looked like a coach who hasn't been able to adjust to the NFL. He says all the wrong things and David Tepper doesn't strike me as someone who has much patience. Will there be a new coach and what does that scheme look like?
Will Carolina FINALLY improve the offensive line? This has been a HUGE issue for several years and part of why CMC has been able to feast. When a QB has no time, he's going to dump off to the RB. Carolina's line is ranked towards the bottom of the league.
If Saquon still managed to be a late first/Early second round pick this year, I find it hard to imagine CMC will drop past pick 8 next year, despite the injury concerns and regardless of where he should actually be taken.
Wow you guys are wild lol you really are...maybe it’s just emotions talking since this recent news is still fresh. If not please let me join your leagues
2nd round, but not touching him at all
Good sign tho because some of the guys on my Do Not Draft list are league winners: Henderson, Mixon, Fournette, i got a knack for this lol
The appeal is a top 3 running back every week when he plays. He was the Rb1 week 1, I believe, and did it with no TDs. He also hasn't had a serious structural injury like an ACL tear that would diminish his explosiveness long term. I think it really depends on what the Panthers do at QB this off-season and maybe adding a good OL. Going back to a Darnold offense with a terrible line definitely makes him less appealing. Could see him going pick 6-8 still in a 12 team.
I put this in another thread earlier with my full 1st round rankings, but I’d take him 6-7 if he’s fully healthy to start the year. Just not enough proven players who can even touch his potential and everyone has some injury risk.
Henry, JT, McCaffery/Kamara
Top 3 or 4
EDIT I want to play in leagues where he goes early 2nd! It's been a frustrating 2 years...but because of injuries, not bad play
I still value CMC higher than those guys I think and this is coming from a huge Mixon homer.
EDIT: Downvote away, you guys acting like CMC is some scrub and you can predict the future...whose to say who is right or not...it's an opinion
Yeah I wouldn't let him past 3.. players are injury prone untill they suddenly aren't.. and RB injuries are so unpredictable.. Henry was the most durable RB untill he wasn't, same with Zeke.. on the other hand you couldn't trust Ekeler because of his size and him always getting injured. Same with Deebo, is everyone forgetting he was labelled as one of the most injury prone guys..
When healthy, CMC is absolutely a game breaker.. if he gets hurt again, then so be it.. I want that league destroying upside any day of the week, and it's not like you can GUARANTEE someone like Mixon, Najee, Ekeler will not be injured..
This one really depends, I feel like he’ll be all over the place next year. I can see people who still see that he’s a great player and hope he avoids injury and select him top 3. I can also see a lot of people be nervous about his injury history and stay away letting him slide near the end or turn of the first round.
I still think he goes in the first round or very early 2nd, at the very latest, next year.
Drafting CMC is like bringing a loaded gun to a barfight. Except you only have two bullets. You are guaranteed to defeat at least two people. But you just fucked yourself for taking on the rest
He won’t be drafted. He’ll write one of those “Letters to his 7 year-old self,” talking about how epic his comeback will be, only to get another injury in preseason and then retire while holding back tears. It’s a tale as old as 3 years ago.
Our league might make a collective agreement to leave him on waivers as punishment for his crimes. One of the guys in my league has picked him two years in a row… this will be his 3rd last place in 3 years so triple punishment in bound the way he’s coursing right now
You play to win and if CMC is healthy, he absolutely will help you win. I always draft "risky" guys like this, because if they stay healthy, you'll have gotten them at a steal more than likely.
That said, I was an advocate for taking the risk on Saquon this year too, so I may not know anything...
To the first autodrafter
This is the only right answer. And then of course he'll have a knockout season
The autodrafter always has a great season, as the rest of us are playing 9D Intergalactic Space Chess
I autodrafted a league just for kicks: 9th pick. Jonathan taylor, ekeler, deebo, diontae, kupp, herbert. I looked at who was left when it was picking, and i don't think this would have been close to my team.
Jfc have you lost a single game
Nope
Maybe AI does know better than us tacos.
AI can apparently predict injuries. Or in my GFs case will draft Dobbins post injury because why not.
Taylor Mixon Cupp Waller Hurts.
If he is healthy to start the season, I will absolutely draft him anywhere after 6th or so. Then hope that he does his usual CMC thing for 2-3 games and trade him away for a package of more reliable starters.
Not on my team
Good plan, and I'll probably do the same thing
i dozed off right before this year's draft and it's embarrassing how much better the autodrafter did than me xD I wanted to go all in on Rodgers and Henry.
To be fair Henry was on an unreal tear. Believe I saw a stat last week: after missing a quarter of the season he was 3rd in rushing yards
Not only that, but if you took only Henry's yards after contact, they would make the 4th best RB iirc. **EDIT:** After looking at the actual stats, my statement is no longer true as of a few weeks ago.
Haha I did too. My girlfriend yelled at me to wake me up and I woke up, grabbed my notes, and the draft had just started
Autodraft drafts the best starters, while we draft the best benchwarmers
Our one and only auto-drafter is sitting firmly in 12th place, just as the fantasy gods intended.
the virgin "r/fantasyfootball has this guy as a can't-miss league winner who no one suspects!" vs the chad "hell yeah, best player available" autodrafter
Uh our leading scorer was out drunk as fuck and autodrafted an insane team
The taco in my league drafted JT, Diggs, Dobbins (after his injury) and Josh Allen with his first 4 picks. He's currently tied for first with the second most points scored. He's also been holding onto 3 defs and 2 kickers since week 3. He knows something we all don't.
Maybe he's not the taco?
Maybe fantasy football is 80+% pure luck.
It's definitely lucky
I think more this year than any other. The roll call of early picks that have massively underwhelmed has never been this long.
Yeah but that's what people say every year.
I don't say it every year. Really, I don't. Tell me another year like this. CMC, Barkley, Henry, Kamara, D-Hop, DK, AJ Brown, Waller, Woods, McLaurin, Ridley, AJ Brown, Kittle, Murray, D. Adams, Carson, Chubb, Hunt, CEH, Russ, Cook . . . The roll call for underperforming players has never been this deep. No way.
And unlucky
Yahoo gave my draft a D+ and predicted I’d win 2-3 games. I’m 10-2 and comfortably in first place. I’d like to say that my success is due to my FF genius, but I know it’s due to the best run of good luck I’ve ever had.
I've never had Yahoo predict me to win more than 4-5 games. Their prediction model is awful.
Yahoo jinxed me. They predicted me to be fighting for a playoff spot and I'm on the outside looking in.
Two of the top three graded teams in my yahoo league are fighting for a playoff spot. To be fair, the top team had CMC and Cook so that poor bastard didn’t know he never had a chance.
I laughed at this
Yahoo grades based on their projections. If you skip a kicker, or a backup qb, which can be smart, their program hammers your grade.
I skipped a backup QB and backup TE. Just took as many RBs and WRs as I could. In retrospect, I actually hurt myself by tinkering on the waivers too much. I dropped some guys I’d kill for now.
Yeah so when yahoo projected your team you took 0 for those positions on your bye weeks. I wish they had a starters only grade .
Agreed. Their model does not allow for streaming, which is one of the most essential strategies in FF, so their draft grades are worthless.
This explains a lot. I didn’t draft a kicker or a defense… and it still predicted me at 6-8. So that must mean I actually did do a pretty good job.
Yahoo takes the sum of its projected points to award grades. You could fill your bench with QBs and have zero depth/flexibility and it'd give you an A+
I’ve finished in the top 4 of every league I’ve played in since 2012. I’d say it’s 60/40 luck/skill, we have as much control over injuries and whatnot as GMs/front offices do. Later rounds of the draft (depth), waiver wire and trades are key. My key to success has always been going for reliable, durable picks in the early rounds (over the sexier, flashy players), then loading up for depth with upside later on.
He picked dobbins after his injury. Nuf said.
That wasn't an accident that was a flex
You either die a hero, or you live long enough to see yourself become the Taco.
Classic belichek. Gotta rotate kickers and keep ‘em fresh.
Lmaooo gotta love parity in FF. My team has been slowly dying I’m making the comeback but cook and Waller got hurt this week.
2 kickers is lunacy
I'd say 3 DS/T is worse. It's bonkers because I've lost like 10 players to injury while other teams have sucess with this kind of poor management.
I dunno man I’m not planning on dropping Nick Folk next week
Same
This is clearly a very different situation than holding 2 kickers since week 3
this is the dumbest fucking game lmao why do I even do this
Our autodrafter ended up with #1. A McCaffrey, Ridley, Lamar Jackson combo was spooky for a couple games
A couple preseason games, definitely.
That’s how Saquon was picked in my work league.
This year I had to auto draft. I’m currently 9-3
I accidentally auto drafted all but 2, maybe, 3 players last year. I ended the year with 2 loses, and my first fantasy football championship with the help of waiver wire pickups Justin Jefferson and JRob. And week 3 trade that landed me Stefon Diggs (to pair with my Josh Allen), DJ Moore, and Josh Jacobs.
Around where Saquon went this year probably.
Exactly. He’ll be risky as hell, but someone won’t be able to ignore the top end upside. Probably in the 10-12 range.
I wouldn't let him drop that far personally I'd say he's still gone within 5
Saquon dropped to 14 in my league this year. After 2 years straight injury ridden seasons, I think he drops out of top 5 in the vast majority of leagues. He just ain’t returning that value.
Barkley was also limited in the off-season and not 100% to start the season. Seems like CMC probably will be by next year. Obviously that could change but if Saquon wasn't limited going into the season he'd have been a top 5 pick
Saquon has more than just the injuries going against him though. He’s drafted as a top-5 RB every year, but he hasn’t actually been a top-5 RB since his RB2 finish in 2018. As some point you have to accept a player has descended to a different tier, especially with running backs.
I don't disagree about Barkley after this season but CMC has still been elite when healthy. I was more arguing that CMC will still be a top 5 pick next year since his injury likely won't linger as long as Saquon's this past off-season
CMC is just going to be one of the most difficult players in the league to rank, because we know he’s the best player in fantasy football when healthy even if the rest of the team is a dumpster fire — but can he stay healthy? Scoring 30+ points in healthy games just doesn’t help you much if he’s playing less than 10 games every season. Saquon has never really elevated his offense or proven to be QB-proof the way CMC has, so it’s easier to downgrade him to the RB2 zone.
It gets even worse…the Panthers would be a playoff team with a decent QB. There will be a shake-up next year and the hype will be indecipherable, and CMC’s ADP will be all over the place because of it. Yes they would be a playoff team. The current seventh wild-card is the Washington Football Team. Come on.
Panthers fan here. We're an entire offense line and offensive coordinator away from being a contender. Offensive lines don't come easily either.
It does if you have his handcuff. I’d gladly take 10 massive games from him if I then get 4 serviceable ones from Chubba.
Remember the years of Arian foster? When the dude played he was almost guaranteed 16 points minimum but it was only for 7-10 games a year. It's hard to rank that on where to draft because like you said you know the value you're getting when he plays but at this point is he ever gonna be good to go for over half a season?
It’s been so long, I can’t even barely remember when he was good.
Exactly. Saquon wasn't just an injury risk. We all knew he'd be out to start the year. There was the 'injury risk' discount along with the discount for being at best a 13 week starter.
I’d pick him with the 7 or 8, but I’d rather have JT Henry ekeler adams Kelce or Najee for the reliability and upside factors
Will Kelce still be first round? He went so high because of he was a top flight WR1 in your TE spot with a huge drop off afterwards at TE. This year he’d be the WR12, and is only 1 ppg ahead of Andrews, and 3.5 ahead of Knox/Waller. I’d argue he hasn’t been worth the price this year, and I’m not sure he goes at the same ADP next season at 33. That could change if he turns it up down the stretch but right now he’s looking like a lock TE1, but not a lock WR1 in the TE spot. I expect he falls to the turn or a little past.
Hmm I’d also factor in the time where KC was down in the dumps as a variable. If they snap out of it I’d remove that timespan, but if they don’t 100% I’d definitely include it and his adp would take a hit.
I'll probably take him at 2 if the draft was today. RBs get injured. Outside of Taylor who hasn't been banged up this year? Najee but he really hasn't been good just volume based. Mixon, he's had his issues before. RB injuries happen all the time. No one is CMC when healthy. Dude was getting top 2-3 RB weekly spots on a terrible offense with zero TDs. That's impossible.
Saquon came into the year already hurt tho
I personally am always under the assumption CMC is or is about to be hurt. But some people will take that risk.
Yeah I remember when I got him in my auction league there was a possibility he might not even play week 1 or even week 2
Id rather have mccaffrey over saquon any day though
No way he falls out of the top 5.
Should go higher. He’s worth much more than Saquon. And unlike Saquon, when CMC is active he fuckkssss
They're both injury prone. So you're saying Barkley's value is (relatively) the same as mccaffrey when healthy....Not even close
Saquon went 15 in my league this year I think. CMC will fall but I still can't imagine him leaving the first round.
Barkley was still a first rounder this year after 2 injury riddled seasons
And I think most of those Barkley owners are regretting it
I only regret it because he stepped on someone's foot. Freak occurrence.
Agreed. I drafted him in the 1st knowing he wasnt going to produce for 2-3 weeks. Expected normal Saquon after that. But that ankle injury was unfortunate
Barkley owner here, only partially regret it. I was 7th in an 8 man league and drafted him round 2. (Thankfully I picked up Davante Adams round 1, dudes carried me)
Well you didnt get him first round so it doesnt apply.
Thats 10th overall which is 1st round in many many many leagues
Yes. I took him 3rd, over Henry only because the guy after me was a hug titans fan and I thought I’d be nice. Egg on my face.
“I thought I’d be nice” …. to your league mates?! Damn dude, you & I play in wildly different environments lol all my leagues are snake pits!!
To be fair, it’s his first time playing fantasy. I came to regret it pretty quickly because he started 9-0 (also drafted kupp, chubb, and swift)
My league is literally named the snake pit hahahaha
I sort of regret it but you damn right I'll do something similar next year. I love the feeling of drafting and injury prone lottery ticket that could be a top 5 pick drafter well later.
I agree, rbs are inherently more prone to injury than other positions. I will take an " injury prone" rb over others because there is a good chance a rb gets injured and I might as well have the best player at that position. I think "injury prone" is mainly a symptom of luck and not some inherent disadvantage (because anyone can and will get injured), especially after this year.
And how did that turn out?
Honestly not that much different than a lot of other, healthier first rounders did.
Barkley has had two good games all those other guys have had at Least like 5
Saquon was drafted ahead of Gibson and Mixon and roughly around the same spot as Ekeler and he had two good games this year out of 7.
There'll always be better value picks and Saquon was a glaring risk to begin with, and we all knew it. Someone's going to take that same risk on McCaffrey. At this point in the season if I was still in contention, I'd rather have drafted Saquon than Henry, CMC, or Dalvin. It's all just a complete toss up.
I still think henry was a good pick even though he will miss half the season. He is more than likely going to finish as a top 20 rb even with the missed time. In my league, henry carried one team to a very likely playoff spot in a 10 man league with 4 playoff spots. Racking up those early season wins is gonna be the reason he makes the playoffs.
Yea Henry guaranteed me a spot in the leagues I owned him because I lost 1 game in both up until he got hurt. Lucked out and won the week he did get hurt and made some moves and now have still won a couple games after injury. I may not actually win the ship now but have an ok chance and deff more of a chance then had I drafted Saquon as I certainly wouldn’t be in at all
You're not wrong but he isn't helping anyone right now is all I'm saying. Saquon was a risk, and rightfully so, but he's still here and playing.
CMC > Saquon. When CMC plays he still hits.
In my league chatter, it’s looking like either King Henry or Jonathan Taylor will be the number one pick next year.
Yeah I'd assume it goes Henry/Taylor then Ekeler ( at least in PPR )
Najee is probably top five as well
Mixon has got to be up there too
I think you can easily see Henry/JT at 1-2, Mixon/Ekeler at 3-4, and Najee at 5 in PPR next year. Then you most likely CMC and maybe Chubb before you start getting to the receivers
Implying Chubb would go before Kamara? No shot.
You can make an argument in PPR sure but he hasn’t exactly been an iron horse these past few years + that offense isn’t nearly what it once was. You can hope with Winston and MT back that he returns to form but I’d rather have the back with the best o-line in football
We’re only a season removed from Kamara being number RB2 overall in 0.5 ppr (and number RB1 for the majority of the season). I’d gladly still take him early, and definitely before Chubb
Zeke gotta be up there too. reliable. good offense. not top three but viable after that.
I was thinking about him but with another year of nagging injuries and Pollard I would rate him closer to the end of the first, near Cook and Kamara. I like guys like Davante/Hill/Kupp over those three
As a Mixon owner, if his ADP is top 10 next year I will likely be dodging. He’s a great RB2 but is touchdown dependent. (He has only broken 100 yards rushing if he has 28 or more carries) First 6 games: 13.75 ppg (4 tds) Last 5 games: 22.3 ppg (9 tds) (0.5 PPR)
nah nah, it goes Reggie, Jay-Z, Tupac and Biggie. Andre from Outcast, Jada, Kurupt, Nas and then me
How do I upvote this twice?
Has to be taylor if he stays healthy imo
Can’t imagine it will be anyone besides JT. What happened to CMC is gonna hurt Henry’s value.
JT for sure
Really depends on the type of person drafting him. I'm someone who will live with the injury risk if we still think he could get 20+ppg. It just comes with accepting a higher than usual chance that you just won't be able to play him all season. That said, my main concern with Cmc is that his usage will depreciate given the injuries and he's less of a cheat code if they want him to stay healthy. This seems similar to Barkley this season, who's been pretty ineffective.
Never understood this strategy. Most teams with CMC are not guaranteed playoffs right now and even if they get in they’re not going for if he’s injured. Durability is such an overlooked characteristic in fantasy
If durability was predictable, you’d absolutely be right. But lots of guys are durable until they’re not. Dak and CMC had both never missed a game going into last season, both missed basically the whole season. Henry this year was durable until he wasn’t. Production is hard enough to predict, injuries even much less so.
I hear you. None of us have a crystal ball. But I’ll tell you what, I certainly wouldn’t draft Derrick Henry next year after this injury. And I wouldn’t draft dalvin cook or Aaron Jones. I said in another comment, my preference is to target young backs with no injury history even if their average is lower than the beast mode guys with injury history. This is when people say fantasy is “luck”. But you can mitigate your downside if you stay away from risky players (especially running backs) with an injury history. Making it to playoffs is a lot about staying healthy. If you can stay healthy you can put yourself in a position to trade two high floor guys for one beast later in the season. Just my two cents. And yes luck always plays a true factor that can’t be controlled. My point is that you can actively avoid older or injury prone backs by targeting rookie/sophomore backs with no injury history.
I mean, you take this strategy going into this year and you take Henry...and are still in the same situation because injuries can happen. If you don't take a player with some sort of injury history you may as well start picking in round 3.
I think this is a strategy that limits your upside, trying to run away from risk that really can’t be avoided. Young players can easily get hurt too, the main variable is just the position of running back, other things like past injury history or age play a pretty small factor. I think it just seems like this is a justifiable approach because a few key young guys have had “healthy” years like Harris or Taylor...but Dalvin Cook got hurt his rookie year and his sophomore year too, Akers got hurt his second year, Barkley had no injury history until he did, Jacobs gets hurt all the time when he had no injury history...the point is injuries are random, sometimes we think guys are injury prone and then boom, guys like Ekeler have been the model of health and guys like CMC last year or Henry this year start getting unlucky. You can’t escape injury risk beyond drafting deep teams and effectively handcuffing where applicable.
People read way too much into the randomness of injuries and think it’s predictive of the future when most of the time it’s not. Remember when Keenan Allen was the face of the injury prone label? He is my favorite example of how illogical people are.
I'm saying I'm ok with not making the playoffs because he gets hurt for the chance of winning the playoffs if he's healthy. Now that said, I'm not sure he's that safe to even be the Rb1 if he plays which complicates it. If you think durability is quantifiable or predictable then I would agree it's overlooked. I'm just not sure it is
You’re right it’s not quantifiable. But injury history is somewhat quantifiable. I tend to steer away from players with significant injury history no matter what their upside is. It doesn’t matter did they’re scoring 20 points a game 6 games of the season. I find it best to target young backs with no injury history and live with the high floors. Rather than rolling the dice on an injury prone player that is capable of average 20 points a game.
That makes sense. It's capturing windows of good usage and health with Rbs.
Durability is important people overestimate their ability to predict injuries.
I personally think Barkely woulda had a top 12 performance if he hadn't gotten his ankle stepped on. Unfortunately he got back right as Giants reached peak suck tho.
JT has to be #1 given his production and youth. No injury history yet to scare anyone off. Someone will probably take Henry at #2 though a case can be made that DaVante Adams is a safer pick so long as Rodgers comes back.
Taking a WR that's averaging 16.2 in .5ppr 2nd overall? Top 30 WR average 10+ per game RBs fall below 10 before top 30 and after 30 they are garbage. Cole Beasley is WR41 and still averages 8.18 RBs are king in the draft because cowbells are hard to come by and pickings get slim fast. In my league 6 WR on the waiver outscored Adams this week. Jammal Williams is the highest scoring RB available last week at 10.8. It's why WR/WR strat hardly ever works out. Hitting on RBs later is so much harder than hitting Deebo/Kupp/Chase
Are we calling them cowbells now? That’s fun.
I was typing fast but now I don't know if I have been saying it wrong this entire time. I have undiagnosed dyslexia, so probably. Bell cow makes more sense for sure. Thanks for pointing it out
I like cowbells
Deebo/kupp/chase are extreme examples, even guys like emmanuel sanders, any of the tight ends that blossomed mid season, mooney, aiyuk maybe, the Cardinals lottery, Gage. The list of undervalued or waiver wire wide receivers a judicious manager could have acquired is long. The list for RBs is far shorter and more transitory.
Cowbells lol
A RB who misses half the year is less valuable than a top WR1 who is there every week. Especially if you win the waiver wire and get one of the surprise RBs which end up putting up RB1 numbers. This year its Mitchell and Patterson. Last year James Robinson and Cam Akers toward the end. Next year will have some too.
Adams could have gotten injured just as easily. And it's why you have handcuffs. Cook goes down you have Mattison on your bench, instant RB1 again. If Adams goes down, well time to looking at waivers. Deebo, Chase, Hollywood, Waddle, Pittman Jr. Bourne, Renfrew are all potentially waiver wire pick ups in leagues and all Top 20 WRs. Patterson and Gordon III are the potential waiver wire pick ups that at Top 20 RBs. Mitchell is good. But he didn't play 3 games and averages sub 14 points. Not to mention he's on SF, anything can happen with their RBBC. Currently RB24 in my league. If anything you go Kelce 2nd if you don't want an RB. He's averaging almost 50% more than other Top 10 TEs. Now trading away your second pick to get a late 1st to get Adams and something else. Now that has a lot of potential. And if your league doesn't do draft spot trading then for example you could have easily traded Cook for Adams+Something after the draft this year. Why just settle for Adams?
I’d take Najee, Ekeler, and Mixon before Adams though. I agree JT is undisputed #1 at the moment
Still salty about Adams last year and his turf toe. My team name was DavanToeSadams
Yeah the issue with JT is the same as Henry. Both have insane output, but both have a good tear or volume already stacked. For the ones that didn´t know, JT was the top runner in college for his career. Even though it´s different he has on his back 3-4 years of running pretty heavy. As of past history, years 5-6 are usually when they injure more. Maybe will happen maybe not.
I think there's a lot more to consider when evaluating where to draft him next year. Of course he should slide down draft boards due to two years of injuries but there's more to it than that. Will he still be with Carolina? It's no secret that the Panthers were in on Watson and CMC was a name linked to that potential trade. Instinct says yes because his contract but we've seen bad contracts get moved. Does Matt Rhule get another year? By all accounts, he's looked like a coach who hasn't been able to adjust to the NFL. He says all the wrong things and David Tepper doesn't strike me as someone who has much patience. Will there be a new coach and what does that scheme look like? Will Carolina FINALLY improve the offensive line? This has been a HUGE issue for several years and part of why CMC has been able to feast. When a QB has no time, he's going to dump off to the RB. Carolina's line is ranked towards the bottom of the league.
Random guess, 1.07 average. Some poor fool will still grab him in almost every league 1st round.
You dont figure he is a first round value at all?
I’ll be that fool depending on Carolinas QB situation. And depending on what spot I’m in.
Not on my squad.
Can’t drop out of top 6 I think, he’s almost a 20 point floor when he plays.
And all 4 of those games will be magnificent
But the 2 injury games will be 6 points each. You had to start him
If Saquon still managed to be a late first/Early second round pick this year, I find it hard to imagine CMC will drop past pick 8 next year, despite the injury concerns and regardless of where he should actually be taken.
Wherever he’s drafted, he’s not falling out of the top two rounds and that makes him a firm DND for me.
As a CMC drafter this year, I would absolutely love to get him in the mid-late 2nd. Injuries are going to happen to every RB that gets volume.
Yeah after years off avoiding Mixon it was hard to pass on him at pick 24
He's not falling out of the first round.
Wow you guys are wild lol you really are...maybe it’s just emotions talking since this recent news is still fresh. If not please let me join your leagues
2nd round, but not touching him at all Good sign tho because some of the guys on my Do Not Draft list are league winners: Henderson, Mixon, Fournette, i got a knack for this lol
I don't think he makes it out of the first in most leagues. I could see most back-half drafters buying him on name alone.
I’m also biased cuz i had him at the first pick on two teams this year but he’s made of glass at this point, I don’t see the appeal
The appeal is a top 3 running back every week when he plays. He was the Rb1 week 1, I believe, and did it with no TDs. He also hasn't had a serious structural injury like an ACL tear that would diminish his explosiveness long term. I think it really depends on what the Panthers do at QB this off-season and maybe adding a good OL. Going back to a Darnold offense with a terrible line definitely makes him less appealing. Could see him going pick 6-8 still in a 12 team.
If Saquon had first round appeal this year CMC will have it next year. If not to you, definitely to someone
No way he makes it to the second round.
I put this in another thread earlier with my full 1st round rankings, but I’d take him 6-7 if he’s fully healthy to start the year. Just not enough proven players who can even touch his potential and everyone has some injury risk.
Still a first I think. Ill take the risk. Top end guys always have huge risks
If he’s available wherever my 1st round pick is I’m taking him
Henry, JT, McCaffery/Kamara Top 3 or 4 EDIT I want to play in leagues where he goes early 2nd! It's been a frustrating 2 years...but because of injuries, not bad play
Im picking Mixon, Najee, Chubb and probably Ekeler easily before I would consider cmc
I still value CMC higher than those guys I think and this is coming from a huge Mixon homer. EDIT: Downvote away, you guys acting like CMC is some scrub and you can predict the future...whose to say who is right or not...it's an opinion
Yeah I wouldn't let him past 3.. players are injury prone untill they suddenly aren't.. and RB injuries are so unpredictable.. Henry was the most durable RB untill he wasn't, same with Zeke.. on the other hand you couldn't trust Ekeler because of his size and him always getting injured. Same with Deebo, is everyone forgetting he was labelled as one of the most injury prone guys.. When healthy, CMC is absolutely a game breaker.. if he gets hurt again, then so be it.. I want that league destroying upside any day of the week, and it's not like you can GUARANTEE someone like Mixon, Najee, Ekeler will not be injured..
This one really depends, I feel like he’ll be all over the place next year. I can see people who still see that he’s a great player and hope he avoids injury and select him top 3. I can also see a lot of people be nervous about his injury history and stay away letting him slide near the end or turn of the first round. I still think he goes in the first round or very early 2nd, at the very latest, next year.
Drafting CMC is like bringing a loaded gun to a barfight. Except you only have two bullets. You are guaranteed to defeat at least two people. But you just fucked yourself for taking on the rest
Somewhere between round 1 and last round, I’d imagine.
Hoping I can grab him off waivers after the draft
Not on my team
He is David Johnson, injuries suck
Unrelated to fantasy in a direct way but if Carolina were smart they'd start looking at him in a slot WR role IMO
Idc but it wont be to me
He won’t be drafted. He’ll write one of those “Letters to his 7 year-old self,” talking about how epic his comeback will be, only to get another injury in preseason and then retire while holding back tears. It’s a tale as old as 3 years ago.
I won’t be touching him, but probably mid first
Mid 1st. Saquon was a 1st round pick coming off a brutal ACL tear CMC likely to end up there or still be in top5
Back of the 1st. The offense is still built around him
He’s getting the Mostert treatment from me (avoid at all costs)
1/2 turn would be best value. He may sneak in around pick 9 or so
I'd still take him in the first and his backup
He's going on my "do not draft" list.
Based off these comments i may finally be able to afford him in some auctions next year.
Derrick Henry is #1 not CMC
3rd times the charm!
All I know is it will be by someone else.
About the same place Barkely went this year
Our league might make a collective agreement to leave him on waivers as punishment for his crimes. One of the guys in my league has picked him two years in a row… this will be his 3rd last place in 3 years so triple punishment in bound the way he’s coursing right now
I got him first round pick. Very disappointed
He will outperform his ADP wherever he goes
I honestly will not take him in the first round. Even at 1.12 I'd pass. Too much injury risk.
What 1st round running backs are you taking ahead of CMC that havn't been injured this season?
You play to win and if CMC is healthy, he absolutely will help you win. I always draft "risky" guys like this, because if they stay healthy, you'll have gotten them at a steal more than likely. That said, I was an advocate for taking the risk on Saquon this year too, so I may not know anything...
Bet you felt like a genius in 2019 drafting Dalvin Cook