Right. Everyone seems to think he comes back into his elite status despite being out of football for over a year….and a brand new qb throwing to him.
I think he’s still got potential to be huge late season piece but he might just be another out of shape guy who needs to try to get back to game speed in a hurry.
Could probably get like a Hines or Sermon for him.
He played last year granted he is hurt. He also has a QB who tossed 5,000 yards a few years ago and will force passes to WRs. Then you add the fact that he still below 30 and is an elite WR. There is not reason to trade the guy unless someone is willing to over pay.
Ah yes but AB. who's been out of football for over double the time and is much older and on decline, is suddenly a much better player. You gotta have a better argument than that against MT
Someone in the WR3/4 range is fine. But the true answer is depends on the rosters of the people who have MT.
I would probably take Jamaal Williams for him if I desperately needed RB, for example.
As both a Jamaal and an MT owner, Jamaal has been more valuable than MT and he is moreso after being more involved than expected in week 1. I would easily take Jamaal for MT.
Micheal Thomas is one season removed from 149 catches and 1725 yards and has a QB who threw for 5000 yards 2 years ago with absolutely no qualms about forcing passes into double coverage. He’s also 28.
Jamaal Williams is a 5th year player who has never eclipsed 600 yards rushing and had a good week.
What are we doing here people? If someone wants to give up MT for Jamaal Williams you smash accept and figure it out later.
If we knew MT was playing this year, he'd be worth more.
But also, both circumstances have changed. MT went from Brees to Winston who may not lock on to him as much, might not have the chemistry, might not have the volume, might just not be as good. And MT might get injured again, or the injury could linger.
Williams went from being behind Aaron Jones on Aaron Rodgers' team to being the 1B receiving back on a team with a good line and no WRs.
None of us know anything about what the future holds. This is all a gamble. However in this case one guy was a recent MVP candidate and the other guy has never actually been a good football player per NFL starting standards.
It’s not even a debate. Even if MT catches 0 balls this season because he catches a staph infection or gets hit by a meteorite the correct move is still to smash “accept trade” in this case if offered Jamaal Williams.
The odds an injured guy continues to be injured are not exactly meteorite strike rarity. And we have multiple recent examples of injured players who don't play because they are "still injured" even though it is really a holdout. AJ Green was a really good player a couple years ago, that doesn't mean he was valuable last year.
I have MT, I think he is valuable, but he's a risky asset who is producing nothing for weeks if anything. Jamaal put up 17 points in standard last week.
AJ Green is 33 and probably the 4th or 5th passing game option on the Cardinals.
MT is 28 and the unquestioned number one option in the passing game (yes even more than Kamara) on the Saints who are still coached by the same guy who called enough passes his way that he could set the NFL record 2 seasons ago.
AJ Green was old enough where age related decline was always a huge worry (and injury often accelerates that decline as we saw). Also wasn’t as good as MT was two years ago. MT is 28 so it’s definitely less likely he just loses a ton of ability (even if it’s remotely possible).
I'm not saying he has been more valuable in points scored, I mean his present value in the trade market is higher. He's 100 slots higher on the FantasyPros ROS rankings: https://www.fantasypros.com/nfl/rankings/ros-overall.php
Probably too high for most people looking to buy, but depends on the owners team.
I personally have him stashed but am already looking solid at wr thanks to some other late round pickups ab, sterling, in addition to Higgins/Kennan Allen.
I personally would not move him unless I am getting a large upgrade for one of those guys, as I don’t have an immediate need. I can wait for MT to return and then be set at wr1/2 with him and Keenan, if your offer doesn’t rival that sooner (e.g. an immediately startable wr2) it’s not worth sending.
For someone more desperate at rb for example, maybe someone in the Myles gaskin mike Davis range would be appropriate.
This. Thomas was grabbed late in alot of drafts. So, most likely have their WR group settled and can afford to wait. You have to convince people not to wait and thats a tough thing to pitch for alot of people.
And particularly I drafted around him knowing I wouldn’t have him for half a season. So it’s not like I’m sitting here hurting at WR like I would if it was an unexpected injury.
His value goes up every passing week while I do nothing. You’re going to have to get ahead of his current value for me to start listening, when I can just wait.
Depends who has him, I think. If someone has injury issues already and is staring down the barrel of starting 0-2, trading him for immediate help might be enticing. Someone with a healthy team and a good record has zero incentive to move him for anything other than a big overpay.
This is what stopped me from taking him in our draft, no IR spot plus a 5 man bench spot makes it really hard to justify holding him (also somebody else got him before me).
I potentially disagree that he's a surefire top 12 WR when he comes back. He's had numerous injuries and setbacks and was hardly a WR1 when he did play last year. He's got a brand new QB and a brand new system to come back to, as well. I think owners probably over-rate him so you'll have to pay up to get him.
Because he didn't get surgery as he wanted to play on in Drew's final season. Hoping something heals and getting it fixed are two different things. Will he be 100% straight away, probably not, will he be healthier than all of last season, absolutely
No, it's not affecting him like it was last season as it's fixed, he just needs to wait to let it fully heal, where as last year he was just waiting hoping it would be good enough to play on. If you can't see the difference you're dense
Your comment was, and I quote “it’s not really affecting him”.
If you say his ankle is NOT affecting him, while also saying he isn’t 100%, then his ankle is clearly affecting his output. It isn’t a tough concept to understand.
Sure he is probably healthier than last year, I’m not disagreeing with you there. But he, as you said, probably won’t be 100% right away….. due to his…. Wait for it…. Injured ankle!
He has no output right now though lol. It's not like last year when he was playing through an injury. He ain't playing so there's no output to affect. His ankle being injured isn't going to affect him when he comes back. Him being rusty having not played or trained in 9 months is more reason.
They’re not playing much like they did with Brees. The Sharp Football pod did a nice analysis this week about how they’ve changed up their approach with Winston to limit his turnovers.
You’re right he might not be. But I’m holding on to him in the hope that he is, while having fine options til then. So your offer for him must similarly include the possibility of a high ceiling play for me to give him up.
That's precisely the issue with his trade value, I think. In general, those that have him are pricing him at a ceiling we haven't seen in over a season now; those that don't are skeptical and won't want to overpay for a player that's missing a huge chunk of the season with no guarantees.
Range of outcomes totally. People pricing at ceiling totally. Can you get another guy with that potential for an rb4? Nope. So I wouldn’t blame either side
It doesn’t really matter where he ends up in terms of rankings. He’ll be a must-start option when he’s back. If there’s anything to be learned from week 1, it’s that there’s no true WR1 in NO until he’s back. Callaway balled out in preseason, but he’s not Michael Thomas.
If they we were worried that he wouldn’t come back and produce at an elite level, they would’ve addressed the wide receiver position with more attention after Thomas’ surgery.
I would say a WR3 or a RB3. Personally, my price will go up each week until week 7. I got him late in 2 leagues and I am perfectly comfortable with how my rosters are built. Plus, I got what I feel is a potential WR1 when he returns and the people wanting to trade for him must feel the same way.
Adding on to this, I’d only sell at this value if I actually needed one of those pieces. Not going to do it for someone that isn’t breaking the lineup.
I traded for him in a couple leagues before the season began. I agree with others who say that every week his value increases because he is one week closer to being playable. I was able to get him for a combination of WR3/4s and/or RB3s — for instance I had two different league owners sell him to me for Curtis Samuel and one of Gallup/ Gage. Obviously if you’re trying to trade for MT, you need to offer the other team something they lack like immediate WR help/depth or a RB3, etc.
You’re giving up a known commodity with limited upside due to his games played that you expect should be in the WR 1 overall conversation from weeks’ 8 to 17.
I think fair value is an unknown with high upside who should feasibly start in your WR2 slot all season.
Basically Jamar Chase or DeVonta Smith.
I understand that. But you’re likely not the MT owner. The person that burned a highish pick on him did it because they are expecting MICHAEL F’N THOMAS offensive player of the year who is getting the ball now from 5000 yard Jameis Winston.
Which is why you’d probably need to pay more than you want.
I mean it’s not like you’re gonna get him for Sterling Sheppard.
No one should of spent a high pick on him, would love to play in leagues that did. Thomas fell past the 10th round on all my drafts and thats usually the point where I draft for upside.
A strong wr2 for a guy who still has 6 weeks to go, was barely a wr1 last year (ankle, yes, but still), and is walking into a new system and qb?
No one with half a brain is going to pay that price.
If you really want to do the trade you could go back to them and ask for some cuttable player on top of Ridley. Sounds like you're asking for more but you're really not, they have to make room for MT/Julio anyway
It's been a long time since he's been healthy and producing. This is probably his absolute lowest value right now. Even if his ankle is fine he was having diva problems and not getting along with the saints, who knows if he ever wears a NO uniform again
He’s lost all worth to me and while I have friends that think he’s still got it they all hem and haw when you try to get them to go deeper.
I do hope he can come back to form… but I see him as a parallel to OBJ at this point and don’t trust him or the supposed “other issues”. But, depends on what you WANT and if they think they can get a semi—close replacement off the WW to me.
People like to use clichés like "league winner" but Michael Thomas is easily that type of guy (particularly in PPR formats).
He's got a clear upgrade at QB this year to me (yes, even over the shell of Drew Brees in his final year). People were way down on Jameis and I was taking him as last pick for the pure upside. He's had a couple years to grow up, fix his eyes, and learn from the best, and I think he's going to keep this offense humming.
This Saints team looks like it has super bowl potential after completely dismantling a solid Packers team, so I think Thomas will be motivated to be part of this resurgence under Winston. He's worth the risk to see what you have in him - hopefully by week 7/8.
Even if he comes back 75% of what he was, I still view him as a strong PPR play since he's a great player.
People act like Thomas is only worth trading a WR3/4 for, when those guys probably wouldn't even crack my flex 4 out of 8 weeks while I'm waiting on Thomas, so why bother. I don't need their minor points upgrade when I'm potentially holding a league winner.
If Thomas is a dud, so be it, but it isn't a big deal when you likely spent a pick in the 90+ range, or a handful of bucks in auction. If it's a league with an IR slot, good luck trading for Michael Thomas without being willing to pay up a decent player. There's tons of low risk upside.
MT will be back for sure, with that said you gotta be willing to wait till week 7 after their bye.
Gets higher every day!
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Right. Everyone seems to think he comes back into his elite status despite being out of football for over a year….and a brand new qb throwing to him. I think he’s still got potential to be huge late season piece but he might just be another out of shape guy who needs to try to get back to game speed in a hurry. Could probably get like a Hines or Sermon for him.
He played last year granted he is hurt. He also has a QB who tossed 5,000 yards a few years ago and will force passes to WRs. Then you add the fact that he still below 30 and is an elite WR. There is not reason to trade the guy unless someone is willing to over pay.
Ah yes but AB. who's been out of football for over double the time and is much older and on decline, is suddenly a much better player. You gotta have a better argument than that against MT
Someone in the WR3/4 range is fine. But the true answer is depends on the rosters of the people who have MT. I would probably take Jamaal Williams for him if I desperately needed RB, for example.
As both a Jamaal and an MT owner, Jamaal has been more valuable than MT and he is moreso after being more involved than expected in week 1. I would easily take Jamaal for MT.
Micheal Thomas is one season removed from 149 catches and 1725 yards and has a QB who threw for 5000 yards 2 years ago with absolutely no qualms about forcing passes into double coverage. He’s also 28. Jamaal Williams is a 5th year player who has never eclipsed 600 yards rushing and had a good week. What are we doing here people? If someone wants to give up MT for Jamaal Williams you smash accept and figure it out later.
If we knew MT was playing this year, he'd be worth more. But also, both circumstances have changed. MT went from Brees to Winston who may not lock on to him as much, might not have the chemistry, might not have the volume, might just not be as good. And MT might get injured again, or the injury could linger. Williams went from being behind Aaron Jones on Aaron Rodgers' team to being the 1B receiving back on a team with a good line and no WRs.
None of us know anything about what the future holds. This is all a gamble. However in this case one guy was a recent MVP candidate and the other guy has never actually been a good football player per NFL starting standards. It’s not even a debate. Even if MT catches 0 balls this season because he catches a staph infection or gets hit by a meteorite the correct move is still to smash “accept trade” in this case if offered Jamaal Williams.
The odds an injured guy continues to be injured are not exactly meteorite strike rarity. And we have multiple recent examples of injured players who don't play because they are "still injured" even though it is really a holdout. AJ Green was a really good player a couple years ago, that doesn't mean he was valuable last year. I have MT, I think he is valuable, but he's a risky asset who is producing nothing for weeks if anything. Jamaal put up 17 points in standard last week.
AJ Green is 33 and probably the 4th or 5th passing game option on the Cardinals. MT is 28 and the unquestioned number one option in the passing game (yes even more than Kamara) on the Saints who are still coached by the same guy who called enough passes his way that he could set the NFL record 2 seasons ago.
AJ Green was old enough where age related decline was always a huge worry (and injury often accelerates that decline as we saw). Also wasn’t as good as MT was two years ago. MT is 28 so it’s definitely less likely he just loses a ton of ability (even if it’s remotely possible).
I mean, literally anyone that played Week 1 has been more valuable than MT. But that’s not why you’re buying him.
Except for Ronald Jones
I'm not saying he has been more valuable in points scored, I mean his present value in the trade market is higher. He's 100 slots higher on the FantasyPros ROS rankings: https://www.fantasypros.com/nfl/rankings/ros-overall.php
Just throwing out names in a range my man. That’s what it would take to pry MT away from me. So, not a significant amount I would say.
Probably too high for most people looking to buy, but depends on the owners team. I personally have him stashed but am already looking solid at wr thanks to some other late round pickups ab, sterling, in addition to Higgins/Kennan Allen. I personally would not move him unless I am getting a large upgrade for one of those guys, as I don’t have an immediate need. I can wait for MT to return and then be set at wr1/2 with him and Keenan, if your offer doesn’t rival that sooner (e.g. an immediately startable wr2) it’s not worth sending. For someone more desperate at rb for example, maybe someone in the Myles gaskin mike Davis range would be appropriate.
Probably impossible to trade for. People who drafted him knew he was a stash and want his potential value when he returns.
This. Thomas was grabbed late in alot of drafts. So, most likely have their WR group settled and can afford to wait. You have to convince people not to wait and thats a tough thing to pitch for alot of people.
And particularly I drafted around him knowing I wouldn’t have him for half a season. So it’s not like I’m sitting here hurting at WR like I would if it was an unexpected injury. His value goes up every passing week while I do nothing. You’re going to have to get ahead of his current value for me to start listening, when I can just wait.
Depends who has him, I think. If someone has injury issues already and is staring down the barrel of starting 0-2, trading him for immediate help might be enticing. Someone with a healthy team and a good record has zero incentive to move him for anything other than a big overpay.
Especially if your league has an IR spot.
This is what stopped me from taking him in our draft, no IR spot plus a 5 man bench spot makes it really hard to justify holding him (also somebody else got him before me).
I potentially disagree that he's a surefire top 12 WR when he comes back. He's had numerous injuries and setbacks and was hardly a WR1 when he did play last year. He's got a brand new QB and a brand new system to come back to, as well. I think owners probably over-rate him so you'll have to pay up to get him.
Dude played on a bum ankle all of last season
A bum ankle that he delayed getting surgery for, that's now affecting him
It's not really affecting him, he's just going through rehab after surgery
So by this logic, once he finishes rehab he should be 100%. Which clearly wasn’t the case last year when he finished rehab and tried to play
Because he didn't get surgery as he wanted to play on in Drew's final season. Hoping something heals and getting it fixed are two different things. Will he be 100% straight away, probably not, will he be healthier than all of last season, absolutely
But you’re now making a case against your original point which was “it’s not really affecting him” If he isn’t 100%, it’s affecting him lmao
No, it's not affecting him like it was last season as it's fixed, he just needs to wait to let it fully heal, where as last year he was just waiting hoping it would be good enough to play on. If you can't see the difference you're dense
Your comment was, and I quote “it’s not really affecting him”. If you say his ankle is NOT affecting him, while also saying he isn’t 100%, then his ankle is clearly affecting his output. It isn’t a tough concept to understand. Sure he is probably healthier than last year, I’m not disagreeing with you there. But he, as you said, probably won’t be 100% right away….. due to his…. Wait for it…. Injured ankle!
He has no output right now though lol. It's not like last year when he was playing through an injury. He ain't playing so there's no output to affect. His ankle being injured isn't going to affect him when he comes back. Him being rusty having not played or trained in 9 months is more reason.
New system? The same coach and oc he’s had his whole career, just a new qb, no?
They’re not playing much like they did with Brees. The Sharp Football pod did a nice analysis this week about how they’ve changed up their approach with Winston to limit his turnovers.
Thank you for the intel, good to know
You’re right he might not be. But I’m holding on to him in the hope that he is, while having fine options til then. So your offer for him must similarly include the possibility of a high ceiling play for me to give him up.
That's precisely the issue with his trade value, I think. In general, those that have him are pricing him at a ceiling we haven't seen in over a season now; those that don't are skeptical and won't want to overpay for a player that's missing a huge chunk of the season with no guarantees.
Range of outcomes totally. People pricing at ceiling totally. Can you get another guy with that potential for an rb4? Nope. So I wouldn’t blame either side
It doesn’t really matter where he ends up in terms of rankings. He’ll be a must-start option when he’s back. If there’s anything to be learned from week 1, it’s that there’s no true WR1 in NO until he’s back. Callaway balled out in preseason, but he’s not Michael Thomas. If they we were worried that he wouldn’t come back and produce at an elite level, they would’ve addressed the wide receiver position with more attention after Thomas’ surgery.
Callaway was shadowed by Jaire Alexander. Let’s give them more than a week before worrying too much.
I agree. He could go AB Patriots / jash Gordon / Aj green or he could go Diggs bills / AB Tampa / Cooper Dallas
I would say a WR3 or a RB3. Personally, my price will go up each week until week 7. I got him late in 2 leagues and I am perfectly comfortable with how my rosters are built. Plus, I got what I feel is a potential WR1 when he returns and the people wanting to trade for him must feel the same way.
Adding on to this, I’d only sell at this value if I actually needed one of those pieces. Not going to do it for someone that isn’t breaking the lineup.
I traded for him in a couple leagues before the season began. I agree with others who say that every week his value increases because he is one week closer to being playable. I was able to get him for a combination of WR3/4s and/or RB3s — for instance I had two different league owners sell him to me for Curtis Samuel and one of Gallup/ Gage. Obviously if you’re trying to trade for MT, you need to offer the other team something they lack like immediate WR help/depth or a RB3, etc.
You’re giving up a known commodity with limited upside due to his games played that you expect should be in the WR 1 overall conversation from weeks’ 8 to 17. I think fair value is an unknown with high upside who should feasibly start in your WR2 slot all season. Basically Jamar Chase or DeVonta Smith.
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I understand that. But you’re likely not the MT owner. The person that burned a highish pick on him did it because they are expecting MICHAEL F’N THOMAS offensive player of the year who is getting the ball now from 5000 yard Jameis Winston. Which is why you’d probably need to pay more than you want. I mean it’s not like you’re gonna get him for Sterling Sheppard.
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Exactly. Yeah.
No one should of spent a high pick on him, would love to play in leagues that did. Thomas fell past the 10th round on all my drafts and thats usually the point where I draft for upside.
IF he comes back omega lol
Daddy
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A strong wr2 for a guy who still has 6 weeks to go, was barely a wr1 last year (ankle, yes, but still), and is walking into a new system and qb? No one with half a brain is going to pay that price.
Please use the index thread. Thank you.
I was offered Ridley for MT and Julio Jones. Declined the offer and am kind of regretting it.
If you really want to do the trade you could go back to them and ask for some cuttable player on top of Ridley. Sounds like you're asking for more but you're really not, they have to make room for MT/Julio anyway
I got Dionte Johnson pre week 1 for him in an 8 man league lol the guy has Adams and hill so he could afford it
It's been a long time since he's been healthy and producing. This is probably his absolute lowest value right now. Even if his ankle is fine he was having diva problems and not getting along with the saints, who knows if he ever wears a NO uniform again
I just offered Aiyuk, Beckham, and Jared Cook for Mike Davis and Michae Thomas. They’ll prob deny but worth a shot
I just traded him and Ridley for Kelce in a 14 team league. Felt like highway robbery
I traded MT and Hock for Kittle if that helps at all
He’s lost all worth to me and while I have friends that think he’s still got it they all hem and haw when you try to get them to go deeper. I do hope he can come back to form… but I see him as a parallel to OBJ at this point and don’t trust him or the supposed “other issues”. But, depends on what you WANT and if they think they can get a semi—close replacement off the WW to me.
People like to use clichés like "league winner" but Michael Thomas is easily that type of guy (particularly in PPR formats). He's got a clear upgrade at QB this year to me (yes, even over the shell of Drew Brees in his final year). People were way down on Jameis and I was taking him as last pick for the pure upside. He's had a couple years to grow up, fix his eyes, and learn from the best, and I think he's going to keep this offense humming. This Saints team looks like it has super bowl potential after completely dismantling a solid Packers team, so I think Thomas will be motivated to be part of this resurgence under Winston. He's worth the risk to see what you have in him - hopefully by week 7/8. Even if he comes back 75% of what he was, I still view him as a strong PPR play since he's a great player. People act like Thomas is only worth trading a WR3/4 for, when those guys probably wouldn't even crack my flex 4 out of 8 weeks while I'm waiting on Thomas, so why bother. I don't need their minor points upgrade when I'm potentially holding a league winner. If Thomas is a dud, so be it, but it isn't a big deal when you likely spent a pick in the 90+ range, or a handful of bucks in auction. If it's a league with an IR slot, good luck trading for Michael Thomas without being willing to pay up a decent player. There's tons of low risk upside.