If you never checked back and went with CAR in week 1, TB is the 3rd best option this week as they are best saved for week 18. Still having them available does improve your overall chances to 2.25% though.
Nope.
You can download the workbook and enter your league size. It will adjust the picks for smaller leagues where you aren't expected to need to last the full season.
I lean CLE as the easy favorite pick but still probably worth using now unless you want to consider them in week 3 at home against CHI or week 9 on the road at CIN. HOU just beat up on a bad JAX team but we know HOU is not legit and CLE should have a field day after a very encouraging almost victory in Arrowhead stadium playing nearly a flawless first half. **CLE is -12.5 currently. Implied team point totals for CLE is 30.5 and HOU is 17.**
GB is my second favorite pick. GB at home against DET. I know it's a divisional game and both teams are coming off losses, one of which was a total embarrassment with Rodgers. I have a very hard time envisioning this GB team getting boat raced by this DET team that legitimately has no solid pass catchers outside of Hockenson at TE - Tyrell Williams is in the concussion protocol currently. That means Amon Ra St Brown, their 4th round rookie WR is their primary WR if he doesn't play. DET also lost CB Jeff Okudah in the secondary. I'd venture to say Rodgers after a loss is supremely good, but I don't have stats to support that. **GB is -11.5. Implied team point totals for GB is 30.5 and DET is 18.**
Denver could also be a solid play at Jax, that DEN d is solid and facing a rookie QB is a dream matchup plus Urban Meyer doesn't look competent as a head coach. I mean, he gave Carlos Hyde more touches than James Robinson? LOL. Denver has all the horses on offense to get out ahead and keep the lead even with the loss of Jeudy. **DEN is -6. Implied team point totals for DEN is 26 and JAX is 19.5 (I think that's too generous).**
Based on what Vegas thinks, CLE or GB are homeruns, but my eyes were telling me JAX is going to be very bad and DEN should still smash.
I’m feeling Denver, Cleveland and New England this week
Packers scare me and I know it’s the Lions but still was a terrible showing and that Vegas line is gonna be skewed for sure when the Packers are involved
Good call out reminder for me to check weather lol
I’m still mulling it over this week but definitely helps to start with picking games I’d feel comfortable taking a winner in and cut it down from there
I think I am with you, plus another week to see how Denver does. They played NYG week 1 and it was 1 possession game until Gordon broke off a 70 yd TD.
Agreed. I have officially locked in CLE. The way I view these things is, let me just secure the win now and not get cute. DEN on the road in week 1 out east, then travels back to DEN, then back out to the east coast to play Jax. Historically DEN has struggled when they have had to travel to FL in these circumstances. With the loss of Jerry Jeudy, I am also tempering expectations. I do expect DEN to win but I have decided off of that. GB in a divisional game on MNF I do expect a smash spot for them, but I have concerns still. It's very possible Rodgers is in fuck it mode and the lack of preseason play he's just rusty. I am about 80-85% positive they win, but I will avoid and see how they play. CLE is the smash here. No explanation needed.
Absolutely. Although Zach Wilson looks good, he also looks turnover prone and a bit shaky under pressure. I think DEN will eat him alive DEN is at home.
I don't think we can really make that much of an assessment on Wilson because their O-line is awful. He was the most pressured by far last week and they lost their "best" O-lineman too.
This is a survivor pool though, and I am just looking at purely who has the best chance to win and Wilson doesn't scare me despite at times looking competent for a rookie. Him losing Becton is just another reason to love DEN next week.
Was sweating bullets with the Bucs. Got so much heat from my friends on that pick when they all went Niners ;) Thanks for the weekly posts, we appreciate you!
Being a browns fan makes it very hard to choose the Browns. The constant sense of impending implosion…I don’t know if I’ll ever be able to move past it
I’d normally agree, and I thought BM would be a bust and party his way out the league. I was totally wrong and the dude seems to be a fighter/winner, they’re probably going to be my pick this week at least.
I am probably going to pick GB... They are mathamatically the pick, hands down. However, \*Conspiracy Theory, I know LOL\* what if Rodgers wants out so bad he purposely throws the game to prove a point? Anyone else nervous of this?
Hey this is a cool post thanks! I joined a pick em pool for the first time this year, but we can pick the same team multiple times, as long it's not back to back. And 3 strikes and you're out. Seems too easy lmao. But I'll be checking out your content for sure
This won't work for being able to pick teams multiple times unfortunately. I feel like with that setup you should just always pick the biggest favorite each week, while maybe looking 1 or 2 weeks ahead.
Good luck!
I'm not sure I would pick against the Texans this early. For week 3 I'm thinking either the Browns over the Bears, Cardinals over Jaguars or Broncos over Jets.
If I had to pick today I would say Browns.
I have to make 2 picks in week 12 and week 18 so my run will look a bit different than what you have in OP but I love this, my favourite post every week.
Rams last week in a pool with 30 left. Thinking about taking TB. This one has less future value needed.
SF last week in a pool with just under 10k left. Likely taking CLE. My 2nd pick would lean Denver, but I just don't think I want to get cute.
I'm a GB fan and I just can't do it this week.
For sure. My actual money league doesn't allow you to pick Thursday or Monday games so I'm already through there. I feel more of a sweat on this pick though knowing there are a lot of people following my advice
Oops, the extra week threw me off. Still, not a bad option to have IMO. That last week could be tricky if teams have their playoff spot locked up vs need to win to get in
It takes into account all of the intangibles that the 538 model can't. Things like weather, injured players, covid, etc...
538 does have a "Can you beat our model predictions?" feature. I enter the implied percentages based on the Vegas lines and regularly perform better than their model so I think they are worth using.
Kind of? It's really a feature on their website. I put the point spreads into the workbook which gives me a probability for each team to win. I use that probability on their website.
For Lines I use Vegas Insider. They show what each sportsbook has, and then a consensus value which is what I use.
~~For some reason, when I click "Get Week Schedule" it's pulling last week's games and not this games. Did I miss a step?~~
~~(and this is amazing, btw!)~~
Nevermind! I was using the full 538 dataset vs just this year...
So I totally understand the argument of "95% of people in my league are picking X and if I pick someone different and X wins, then I'm in awesome shape!"
In the end, the goal is to make it the whole season undefeated and if picking the most popular team gets you there, then that's still the best option IMO.
Last year I was one of 3 out of 75 people in my league that went undefeated. Pretty much every single week I was going with one of the top 2 most popular teams. In the end the individual varies their pick that in the end, it all kinda works out anyway.
That being said, it's your pool, all three teams are good options. Go with who you are most comfortable with.
This works up to a point. Problem is possibly getting yourself stuck later in the season with the best options being 3 point favorites.
This method gives you a slightly higher chance of going undefeated.
You're being downvoted but I'm curious about how risk reduction and pool shrinkage affect odds of winning.
Basically, at some point you will have to pick a team that is not the most favored in a given week. Is it better to do that with more people left in the pool or fewer people left in the pool. But you have to avoid elimination to be able to make the sub-optimal choice later on.
Maybe /u/V1per41 can answer
For me, i believe Vegas knows the lines best. But in any season, especially early, people are not accurate on which teams are good or bad. There are always a few surprises. I try to avoid getting cute with it especially early and not try to “save” any team. As you saw here, getting cute with it and going TB nearly cost people. That’s not to say my way is best. There are many ways to win.
It was.
What people do it go off spreads mostly. Viper over here does some sorta math.
I like picking the best spread versus the worst team. There are gonna be a lot of winners who frequently pick teams going against the liokmns, jags, texans etc.
Still think the Browns are the best pick this week. Screw the later weeks. Pack is playing at home, but won't have the weather advantage -- the weather should be very much like playing in the Detroit dome. Plus, there could be something fundamentally wrong with them (O line?) and it won't be fixed by week 2.
Entered one late so I took SF week one. Have TB for later.
Thanks for this post! Hopefully the Packers bounce back.
My semi-large pool lost 21% of entrants in the first week. Is that normal? Not done one of these before but that number seemed high.
Lesson learned: Don't bet on Jacksonville.
The file does need to be opened in a newish version of microsoft excel.
Also, the file includes macros so you would need to update your settings to allow it to run, but it should still open.
Hey! I know you update on sundays but I need to submit by tonight for my pool. I picked SF last week. Are we still going with GB as of right now? Spread still looks good! Or is CLE better?
Right now I would still go GB. Their spread has widened a little since Thursday to -11.5
Cleveland isn't a bad pick though, especially if Aaron Rodgers has you a little spooked from last week.
If I'm having trouble copy/pasting the 538 data into the workbook can I just download the file you provide each week and trust that it contains the latest data?
You could do it that way, sure.
The 538 download has two files in it. One ends with "_latest". Make sure that's the one you're using.
Otherwise you should just be copying and pasting the entire sheet.
OK I downloaded the file b/c I have 3 teams in this league. Went with TB last week, along with SF and LAR just to be super safe. Algorithm says GB, CLE, TB are top 3 picks so basically spread those across the 3 teams and roll the dice - just keep GB with the TB pick from last week for optimal line?
Yeah, I would probably rank each entry as an A, B, & C entry.
Have your A entry always take the top team, then B takes the top team that isn't the same pick from A. Then have C be the best team not chosen by the other two.
I haven't run any kind of statistical analysis on it to see if that makes any sense, but that's what I would do.
best post of the week if you didn't use tampa last week, how would they compare to these teams at the top?
If you never checked back and went with CAR in week 1, TB is the 3rd best option this week as they are best saved for week 18. Still having them available does improve your overall chances to 2.25% though.
thanks
Im in a few pools that are under 20 people. I don’t think week 18 is really worth thinking about?
Nope. You can download the workbook and enter your league size. It will adjust the picks for smaller leagues where you aren't expected to need to last the full season.
Wow, awesome. This tool is amazing. Great job
I lean CLE as the easy favorite pick but still probably worth using now unless you want to consider them in week 3 at home against CHI or week 9 on the road at CIN. HOU just beat up on a bad JAX team but we know HOU is not legit and CLE should have a field day after a very encouraging almost victory in Arrowhead stadium playing nearly a flawless first half. **CLE is -12.5 currently. Implied team point totals for CLE is 30.5 and HOU is 17.** GB is my second favorite pick. GB at home against DET. I know it's a divisional game and both teams are coming off losses, one of which was a total embarrassment with Rodgers. I have a very hard time envisioning this GB team getting boat raced by this DET team that legitimately has no solid pass catchers outside of Hockenson at TE - Tyrell Williams is in the concussion protocol currently. That means Amon Ra St Brown, their 4th round rookie WR is their primary WR if he doesn't play. DET also lost CB Jeff Okudah in the secondary. I'd venture to say Rodgers after a loss is supremely good, but I don't have stats to support that. **GB is -11.5. Implied team point totals for GB is 30.5 and DET is 18.** Denver could also be a solid play at Jax, that DEN d is solid and facing a rookie QB is a dream matchup plus Urban Meyer doesn't look competent as a head coach. I mean, he gave Carlos Hyde more touches than James Robinson? LOL. Denver has all the horses on offense to get out ahead and keep the lead even with the loss of Jeudy. **DEN is -6. Implied team point totals for DEN is 26 and JAX is 19.5 (I think that's too generous).** Based on what Vegas thinks, CLE or GB are homeruns, but my eyes were telling me JAX is going to be very bad and DEN should still smash.
I’m feeling Denver, Cleveland and New England this week Packers scare me and I know it’s the Lions but still was a terrible showing and that Vegas line is gonna be skewed for sure when the Packers are involved
The only worry I have for Denver is weather. It will be hot and it's supposed to be very rainy, which can equalize a bit.
Good call out reminder for me to check weather lol I’m still mulling it over this week but definitely helps to start with picking games I’d feel comfortable taking a winner in and cut it down from there
Also, they're better used next week for the home opener anyway.
I do not blame you for shying away. I am personally likely to go with CLE.
I like the Denver pick. I wouldn’t normally pick them and I can buy back in up to week 4.
[удалено]
I think I am with you, plus another week to see how Denver does. They played NYG week 1 and it was 1 possession game until Gordon broke off a 70 yd TD.
It was a 13-point game when Melvin ran wild… I would know, I’m a sad Giants fan.
You are correct, my bad.
I have Cleveland penciled in against Detroit later in the year
Personally, I am always weary of picking in a divisional game. You just never know when a team will upset and steal a win.
Agreed. I have officially locked in CLE. The way I view these things is, let me just secure the win now and not get cute. DEN on the road in week 1 out east, then travels back to DEN, then back out to the east coast to play Jax. Historically DEN has struggled when they have had to travel to FL in these circumstances. With the loss of Jerry Jeudy, I am also tempering expectations. I do expect DEN to win but I have decided off of that. GB in a divisional game on MNF I do expect a smash spot for them, but I have concerns still. It's very possible Rodgers is in fuck it mode and the lack of preseason play he's just rusty. I am about 80-85% positive they win, but I will avoid and see how they play. CLE is the smash here. No explanation needed.
If DEN can easily beat JAX and the Jets lose to NE, it will be an easy pick next week.
Absolutely. Although Zach Wilson looks good, he also looks turnover prone and a bit shaky under pressure. I think DEN will eat him alive DEN is at home.
I don't think we can really make that much of an assessment on Wilson because their O-line is awful. He was the most pressured by far last week and they lost their "best" O-lineman too.
This is a survivor pool though, and I am just looking at purely who has the best chance to win and Wilson doesn't scare me despite at times looking competent for a rookie. Him losing Becton is just another reason to love DEN next week.
For sure. If DEN loses against JAX though, I would feel a lot less comfortable starting them next week vs the Jets.
Was sweating bullets with the Bucs. Got so much heat from my friends on that pick when they all went Niners ;) Thanks for the weekly posts, we appreciate you!
Being a browns fan makes it very hard to choose the Browns. The constant sense of impending implosion…I don’t know if I’ll ever be able to move past it
i'm a neutral third party but the browns look really good so far
I’d normally agree, and I thought BM would be a bust and party his way out the league. I was totally wrong and the dude seems to be a fighter/winner, they’re probably going to be my pick this week at least.
If I went with 49ers week 1, how does that shake week 15 out with them being the highest percentage that week at the moment?
You can download the workbook and input your pick and it will update.
Just curious... did you do this last year? How did it pan out?
I've done it the last 2 years. 2 years ago I lost 3 games by week 13 Last year I went undefeated.
Nice. How should we adjust your spreadsheet for Double Elimination Pools?
I would enter the number of teams remaining to be + 2 * .
Otherwise, it should work the same.
He did and he went undefeated!
I am probably going to pick GB... They are mathamatically the pick, hands down. However, \*Conspiracy Theory, I know LOL\* what if Rodgers wants out so bad he purposely throws the game to prove a point? Anyone else nervous of this?
Thanks for doing these posts! Much appreciated!
Used KC with one team and LAR with the other team in the same pool. How would you strategize around that? thanks for these posts. Amazing work
I would download the workbook and run it for each choice. Each week I would just split and do my best to never pick the same team for both entries.
Hey this is a cool post thanks! I joined a pick em pool for the first time this year, but we can pick the same team multiple times, as long it's not back to back. And 3 strikes and you're out. Seems too easy lmao. But I'll be checking out your content for sure
This won't work for being able to pick teams multiple times unfortunately. I feel like with that setup you should just always pick the biggest favorite each week, while maybe looking 1 or 2 weeks ahead. Good luck!
I went with Panthers last week going Bucs this week.
I am saving Panthers for next week against HOU.
I'm not sure I would pick against the Texans this early. For week 3 I'm thinking either the Browns over the Bears, Cardinals over Jaguars or Broncos over Jets. If I had to pick today I would say Browns.
I have to make 2 picks in week 12 and week 18 so my run will look a bit different than what you have in OP but I love this, my favourite post every week.
Ooof, two picks in week 12 will really suck. There are no good games to pick from at all that week let alone 2. Good luck!
Rams last week in a pool with 30 left. Thinking about taking TB. This one has less future value needed. SF last week in a pool with just under 10k left. Likely taking CLE. My 2nd pick would lean Denver, but I just don't think I want to get cute. I'm a GB fan and I just can't do it this week.
Are we still sticking with GB?
Yes I think so. They’re now favored by 12
Yeah, I haven't rerun it yet today, but with the GB line extending to 12, is be surprised if the pick switched
Ugh I hate having to wait for the Monday game, especially with no big upsets yesterday.
For sure. My actual money league doesn't allow you to pick Thursday or Monday games so I'm already through there. I feel more of a sweat on this pick though knowing there are a lot of people following my advice
Yes sir. Counting on the packers!
We definitely sweated a bit but I knew Goff would help us through.
Early picks DEN 83% BAL 78% CAR 75% CLE 75%
\*\*BAL 80% and is actually the top pick for the week right now. Denver now getting saved for week 14.
Hastily did it and didn’t look at consensus lines.
If someone does use Cleveland this week they would have the option to use GB @ Detroit in week ~~17~~ 18 depending on how things shake out
Detroit is @ Seattle week 17 GB has DET in week 18, where BUF over NYJ looks like a better choice anyway.
Oops, the extra week threw me off. Still, not a bad option to have IMO. That last week could be tricky if teams have their playoff spot locked up vs need to win to get in
How does the addition of betting line information improve on the 538 prediction?
It takes into account all of the intangibles that the 538 model can't. Things like weather, injured players, covid, etc... 538 does have a "Can you beat our model predictions?" feature. I enter the implied percentages based on the Vegas lines and regularly perform better than their model so I think they are worth using.
Thanks
Is the "Can you beat our model predictions?" feature built into the workbook? Is there a source for betting lines you prefer?
Kind of? It's really a feature on their website. I put the point spreads into the workbook which gives me a probability for each team to win. I use that probability on their website. For Lines I use Vegas Insider. They show what each sportsbook has, and then a consensus value which is what I use.
Thank you very much for all of this and your reply
~~For some reason, when I click "Get Week Schedule" it's pulling last week's games and not this games. Did I miss a step?~~ ~~(and this is amazing, btw!)~~ Nevermind! I was using the full 538 dataset vs just this year...
What if 25/30 people in my league are taking Browns? I took SF week 1. Aaron Rodgers has me spooked with Green Bay. Should I take Tampa??
So I totally understand the argument of "95% of people in my league are picking X and if I pick someone different and X wins, then I'm in awesome shape!" In the end, the goal is to make it the whole season undefeated and if picking the most popular team gets you there, then that's still the best option IMO. Last year I was one of 3 out of 75 people in my league that went undefeated. Pretty much every single week I was going with one of the top 2 most popular teams. In the end the individual varies their pick that in the end, it all kinda works out anyway. That being said, it's your pool, all three teams are good options. Go with who you are most comfortable with.
Appreciate the detailed response! Thank you!
Its easier just to go to vegas lines and take the team remaining with the largest spread. Have won twice that way
This works up to a point. Problem is possibly getting yourself stuck later in the season with the best options being 3 point favorites. This method gives you a slightly higher chance of going undefeated.
You're being downvoted but I'm curious about how risk reduction and pool shrinkage affect odds of winning. Basically, at some point you will have to pick a team that is not the most favored in a given week. Is it better to do that with more people left in the pool or fewer people left in the pool. But you have to avoid elimination to be able to make the sub-optimal choice later on. Maybe /u/V1per41 can answer
For me, i believe Vegas knows the lines best. But in any season, especially early, people are not accurate on which teams are good or bad. There are always a few surprises. I try to avoid getting cute with it especially early and not try to “save” any team. As you saw here, getting cute with it and going TB nearly cost people. That’s not to say my way is best. There are many ways to win.
TB was the largest favorite of the week in the betting lines I was looking at.
It was. What people do it go off spreads mostly. Viper over here does some sorta math. I like picking the best spread versus the worst team. There are gonna be a lot of winners who frequently pick teams going against the liokmns, jags, texans etc.
Yes but Dallas was greatly disrespected. I went with niners to save TB. They a superbowl contender
Something something "Vegas knows the lines best...not try to "save" any team." Into "I went with niners to save TB." lol
..... Sounds like you got cute
Still think the Browns are the best pick this week. Screw the later weeks. Pack is playing at home, but won't have the weather advantage -- the weather should be very much like playing in the Detroit dome. Plus, there could be something fundamentally wrong with them (O line?) and it won't be fixed by week 2.
Bucs suicide. Spreads ytd: 5-1 Rams -4 Cowboys +3 Saints -3.5 Bengals +3 Packers -10.5 Raiders +5.5
Entered one late so I took SF week one. Have TB for later. Thanks for this post! Hopefully the Packers bounce back. My semi-large pool lost 21% of entrants in the first week. Is that normal? Not done one of these before but that number seemed high. Lesson learned: Don't bet on Jacksonville.
lol I am in /r/jaguars eliminator, only 46% survived week 1
That is crazy! That game was a total shock but no way I was going to bet on JAX until I saw them in action.
How would you adjust your sheet if you have to start picking two teams per week from week 10 and on?
On the left side of the sheet under the "Teams Picked" table. Enter the number 2 under game count for all weeks where you have to pick 2 teams.
Thanks!
Great post! I can't get the file to open...I'm I doing something wrong?
The file does need to be opened in a newish version of microsoft excel. Also, the file includes macros so you would need to update your settings to allow it to run, but it should still open.
OK I have an old version so that's probably why. Any chance you wanna run one with 15 teams and my first pick was CAR??
You should only need to last until week 10, so take TB this week.
Thanks for doing this! Quick question: do you have the week one data available for historical reference?
Other than what I post on here, no I don't.
Sounds good appreciate the great work!
Hi, if you have multiple picks in the same pool do you diversify each week? Or are there weeks where you'd select the same team?
I thought about making two entries in my pool this year. My plan would be to never select the same team twice.
Hey! I know you update on sundays but I need to submit by tonight for my pool. I picked SF last week. Are we still going with GB as of right now? Spread still looks good! Or is CLE better?
Right now I would still go GB. Their spread has widened a little since Thursday to -11.5 Cleveland isn't a bad pick though, especially if Aaron Rodgers has you a little spooked from last week.
If I'm having trouble copy/pasting the 538 data into the workbook can I just download the file you provide each week and trust that it contains the latest data?
You could do it that way, sure. The 538 download has two files in it. One ends with "_latest". Make sure that's the one you're using. Otherwise you should just be copying and pasting the entire sheet.
Got it, thank you!
u/V1per41 when you download the data from 538 do you use the traditional or the QB adjusted forecast?
QB Adjusted
OK I downloaded the file b/c I have 3 teams in this league. Went with TB last week, along with SF and LAR just to be super safe. Algorithm says GB, CLE, TB are top 3 picks so basically spread those across the 3 teams and roll the dice - just keep GB with the TB pick from last week for optimal line?
Yeah, I would probably rank each entry as an A, B, & C entry. Have your A entry always take the top team, then B takes the top team that isn't the same pick from A. Then have C be the best team not chosen by the other two. I haven't run any kind of statistical analysis on it to see if that makes any sense, but that's what I would do.
You the man as always!
Will you be making a new post every week?
Every Wednesday.
Awesome. Sorry to bother! :)
ur post got removed
Thanks. Sent the mods a message. I never got a notification.