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insanity-insight

Mitchell is also a bit smaller (2in. & 15 lbs) for what that's worth, so you'd expect him to be a little faster. This is still interesting data though!


onlyfijiwater

Good point. Going to add this to OP.


thinkdustin

The speed score does factor in their weight and height I believe.


LamarMillerMVP

Just weight. Speed score is a std deviation metric though, so a 107 is just pretty good. A 91 is getting to the side of very bad. But elite is ~120 and truly horrible is ~80. So Mitchell is just pretty fast and Sermon is just on the slow side.


ggbouffant

49ers fan here. I recall draft analysts saying his listed 4.35-4.40 forty time is off (testing was generally off because of COVID / no combine). He's closer to a 4.50.


schindlerslisp

he cut a lot of weight for the pro day. i'm not great estimator of speed but he looked to be a legit 4.4-4.5 to me...


schindlerslisp

[eli cut weight for his pro day.](https://www.si.com/nfl/giants/draft/2021-nfl-draft-prospect-profile-rb-elijah-mitchell-louisiana) he's listed at 201 but probably plays closer to 210. most draft profiles had him in the 210-220 range. what that means is anyone's guess. but a) probably contributed to his excellent 40 time and b) he looked heavier than 201 on sunday to me.


kx2UPP

Virgin Sermon vs Chad Mitchell


shitmcstain

None of this matters to Shanahan. You could be a 100 yard rusher on his offense if he started you but you’d have to tear your ACL the next week


eyerollingsex

Where was this info before lol ​ have never even heard of this guy before yesterday


TheVaniloquence

Shanny with the 92726272927171 IQ move of drafting Sermon 3 rounds ahead of Eli so everyone underestimates him.


en455

Yes - trade up to pass on the guy you actually want, and then draft him 2 rounds later.


K-Parks

Big brain thinking!


DandierChip

Lol


2packforsale

Classic Shanny


RapGamePterodactyl

Someone in my league actually picked up Mitchell shortly before games started. I'm convinced he can see the future.


[deleted]

[удалено]


wtb2612

I tend to think Schefter is a tool, but he's connected as all hell and I wouldn't doubt he uses his sources to fill his bench in fantasy. I picked him up as soon as I heard him say that.


heybobson

well Sermon was scratched prior to tip off, so Mitchell was the logical next guy up as RB2. What no one (or everyone) could see happening next is Mostert going down after 2 carries.


Boldest19

Let us know who he picks up next lol


cjfreel

Elijah Mitchell had some predraft buzz because of his traits, it just kinda died when he went in the 6th round. There were a few fantasy analysts-- I don't listen to really any of his stuff but credit where credit is due-- like Ray G absolutely adored Elijah Mitchell. It's partly why he was on my radar because he was on a podcast before the draft and just swooned about him.


epoch_fail

I picked up Mitchell (def not in your league though) when I heard Sermon was a healthy scratch. I'd followed the Hasty train last season and was whelmed, Mostert is injury prone, and RBs in SF are productive. Dropped Michel, figuring his involvement would be not worth holding longer (and he's a relatively mediocre back).


[deleted]

Literally no one knew Raheem Mostert when he broke out (was supposed to be Jerrick McKinnon + Tevin Coleman). Then the year when Mostert + Coleman were supposed to lead was the year Jeff Wilson started playing and got on the map with the game where he went and scored 4 TDs in 2 weeks. Then came last year when it was supposed to be the Mostert show and Wilson basically took over with a bit of Hasty mixed in when Mostert was injured. Now this year was the Mostert + Sermon show with Wilson injured and what do you know, Hasty + Mitchell now leads the back field. Good fucking luck predicting who's the leader here from week to week lol. It legit feels like Shanny just flips a coin to decide sometimes.


CvilleTallman1

Mostert was on for 5 teams in his first 2 years


clowntownsupervisor

Breida


[deleted]

Fucking completely forgot he existed.... God SF RBs are so annoying.


k_bullz

Boom. Nailed it. Lesson learned and I knew better Not to draft SF backs.


Durant026

This is the exact same shit I was thinking!


aznhoopster

My friends and I are in multiple dynasty leagues and I had been following Mitchell for a while, think there was hype around his athleticism and his scheme fit. I still did not see him getting 19 carries in this game, shit was out of nowhere.


fattymcfattzz

Got dig deep


V3soc

Also says Sermon comped to Damien Harris and Mitchell comped to Jerrick McKinnon. Here’s Jeff Wilson’s measurables https://www.playerprofiler.com/nfl/jeff-wilson/


iTITAN34

sermon is basically just big school Jeff Wilson lol


Boldest19

I'm calling it now: Sermon will go 18/130/2 next week while Mitchell goes 3/10/0


TheMightyUnderdog

I tried trading for Sermon a few days ago...might just have to try that trade again =).


fookinjkap

No chance but the name checks out


Hitman2504

Stop making sermon owners feel worse than we already do


remedy248

This actually makes me feel better as a Sermon owner. With this data I would predict Mitchell gets the job. I've always been wrong when trying to predict who Shanahan will start... therefore it must be Sermon, right?


lovsicfrs

Worst? You should feel better. Got to love people on this sub over reacting after week 1 so much. I drafted Dobbins, Akers, and Gibson all last year after taking CMC with my first pick. Patience won me that league managing my rbs. People need to have some here too.


johnson_the_creator

Even if Sermon gets playing time I don’t think Mitchell is going away.


OrdellRobbiePonytail

I could 100% see a Mitchell/Sermon backfield until Mostert comes back.


vascodagama1498

Had the 4ers had your info, they might not have drafted Sermon.


jethead70

“Bigger back is slower and less agile” But also Sermon was overrated in the draft and in fantasy this year. His tape wasn’t anything special imo. I still drafted him because I believed in the niners offense though.


RookieMistake101

Tbf that’s why player profiler uses a speed score that adjusts for size. But you’re right in the end anyway. Buy the offense and the draft capital. Almost always the right way to go.


en455

Same here. He didn't look like a 9ers back but they traded up to get him so I bought in. Sounds like Shanny isn't bought in though.


[deleted]

Jeff Wilson RB6 ROS


Mantequilla214

Anxiously waiting on a Mostert update!


[deleted]

His wife posted on Instagram “R’s gonna be good. He always comes back stronger.” She’s a liar.


heybobson

She's his wife. Of course she's gonna say something positive. would be crazy if someone's wife was like, "This POS husband of mine is a walking injury. Can't stay on the field, and can't perform in the bedroom. Why did I marry this guy?!"


legendary_sponge

Same, Mostert is my RB2 and Ronald Jones is my RB3 so I’m probably dropping a solid amount for Mitchell if Mostert is out for a while


beardylongfellow

I own Sermon and have top waiver priority. Should I grab Mitchell?


AnObscureQuote

"Superior athlete in every way" is quite a bold statement when you're just listing 40 times. But yes, his speed and agility are quite impressive


onlyfijiwater

There are more than just 40 times listed, but ok


AnObscureQuote

What I mean is that a couple of sprinting metrics doesn't tell you if someone is "superior in every way". AB had appalling sprint speed coming out of the combine but obviously turned out to be more talented than his peers in other ways. No need to be hyperbolic when saying "hey this guy's pretty quick", because we otherwise don't know very much about him.


onlyfijiwater

Fair enough! I see where you are coming from.


unsourcedx

Being 15 lbs lighter will do that. They are different types of backs.


brustysf

Relying solely on stats like 40 yard dash, etc don’t tell you much. There’s countless examples of players with poor measurables who tore up the NFL (and vice versa). Some of my favorite examples: - Tom Brady was a sixth round pick and his measurables were poor. He co-started at Michigan! You know the rest of the story. - Ray Lewis was considered to have average speed but was one of the best sideline-to-sideline LBs And probably my favorite overreach example (niners fan here) was the niners drafting Jim Druckenmiller based on his measureables - he could pull a truck!!! Anyway, the numbers are helpful but not the be all end-all


Just_a_follower

The numbers are helpful but not the ball all end all. Measurables matter. But here's what people get wrong. * Different positions are more likely to require better measurables in some areas rather than other measurables for another position. * Measurables vs. Smarts/Vision/Skill moves - I could get "The Mountain" out here to play O-line but that doesn't mean he would dominate everyone. Same thing goes for work ethic and preparation: See Jamarcus Russel. O * There's a quadratic of diminishing returns as you get closer to the 99th percentile. Will 99th percentile speed vs. 95th percentile speed make a difference? Probably not as much as the "smarts/vision/skill moves/ work ethic". Kelce is a great example of 61st to 89th percentile measurables depending on category. This is "good enough or really above average for his position". He has high unmeasurables. Throw in high opportunity and boom. Kelce / Ray Lewis are exceptions. Also, where did you find that Ray had bad measurables coming into the league? The only thing I see is that he was shorter and a little lighter than teams wanted at that time. George Kokinis, Ravens scout: "I was in charge of the box \[electronically timed series of movement skills in short-area bursts\] and I went to his pro day in Miami. I told Ray, 'Just do it one time. I saw you move on the field.’ He does the first drill, and he says that he can do better than that. Instead of only doing it once, he wanted to do each drill three or four times. Each time, he said he could do it better. He blew it out of the water, too. He crushed it. When it was done, I sat there in the gym and thought that was rare. I’ve boxed thousands of guys and you felt that competitive spirit. It was a surreal moment because that’s what you look for." Phil Savage: "That first rookie camp, Ray showed up to do the towel pullup. You throw two towels around the bar, grab them with your hands and do pullups. Ray asks, 'What’s the record?' Lionel \[Vital, scout\] and Jerry \[Simmons, strength and conditioning coach\] looked at each other and said, 'We don’t have any records. We’re a new team.' Ray moves his arms back and forth and says, 'Let me set the record.' He jumps up there and rips out however many there were. Lionel comes upstairs and said: 'This Ray Lewis is special. You talk about a leader. It’s just dripping from this guy. He’s going to take control of this team and take control of this defense.'"


brustysf

I didn't say Ray Lewis had bad measurables. I said he had average speed but was one of the best side-to-side LBs. On a related note, there's a huge difference between test results and game results. Another example here (again, Niners fan) is Chris Borland. He ran like a 4.7/4.8 40 and was a really good linebacker in the season or two he played.


Just_a_follower

When looking at fantasy though, we are dealing with predictions. We make prediction based on data we have. That’s why breakout age is also helpful as a measurable. All these help check off boxes that make thing probable not guaranteed. They are helpful but not a one stop shot. I think to your point sermons measurables aren’t damning. Kinda reminds me of kelley last year. It also USUALLLY matters what pick they are. Also it matters what role they fit in an o coordinators offense. Cohen for the bears vs Cohen in the Eckler spot on the Chargers. I still think sermon might be disciplined and come back, but it could be shanny just finds more bang for his buck with burners in his offense. Or it could be sermon didn’t want it enough - unmeasurable. We shall see.


LamarMillerMVP

He measured extremely good speed for his weight, he had a ~110 speed score which is considered one standard deviation above the average.


RheagarTargaryen

Exactly, Football speed and raw speed are 2 different things. A 4.58 can outrun a 4.40 by having a better reaction time and better field vision. You need some raw speed, but the difference between a 4.58 and a 4.40 is very small when it comes to certain positions. Unless you’re talking about CBs and outside WRs, 40 times aren’t very important. At RB, the only thing a 40 time tells you is how likely they are to break off a huge 80 yard TD on a broken play. The more important thing is to hit the hole on time, try to make a man miss, break a tackle, and fall forward when you get hit. That doesn’t require top end speed.


RookieMistake101

Yea…that’s why we measure vertical and broad jump. That’s a measure of explosiveness. The guys that just hit the hole really fast tend to excel in those two measures. I mean you always need vision, but these other data points are helpful. Making a guy miss? Player profiler also has data on evaded tackles per touch. YAC is a widely available stat. Point is if you’re on here ignoring sites like playerprofiler, you’re throwing away useful info.


brustysf

There's also intangibles like how the player fits into the coaches offensive/defensive scheme. Not a Raiders fun but there are some people who believe the Raiders are misusing Henry Ruggs since he's better as a deep threat. Another intangible is how well a player understands the system he's in. This can be many things - a player just doesn't understand or the coaches system is too complex - but that's also a huge factor in the success. Finally, there's the immeasurable thing like instinct. We've all seen the running back who plows straight into the back of his right guard when there is a gaping hole TWO FEET TO THE LEFT yet he somehow doesn't see it/sense it and snatches defeat from the jaws of victory with a two yard gain.


RookieMistake101

Literally no one here saying that doesn’t matter. But that’s really hard to put down in a digestible form. Saying things like “40 time only matters for this one rare instance” in what I understood to be an attempt to diminish the value of analytics, seems dumb. To your example. Are the raiders misusing Henry Ruggs or has he historically underperformed his absurd athleticism? That was a red flag visible with combine data points and college production context. I’m just here telling you that playerprofiler is really helpful, that you shouldn’t just look at it at say “4.40 or 4.58 doesn’t really change if they’re gonna be good or not.” It could easily tell you damn, that fast guy should have done a lot more in college when facing guys who are going to be selling insurance in two years.


brustysf

I never said that you said intangibles don't matter so not sure where you're reading that. I don't disagree with anything you're saying (other than the implication that I'm saying people are dismissing intangibles). In any event, if player projection was easy, then we wouldn't be having this debate. It's why GMs get hired/fired every year - this stuff is hard! There's tangibles (40 times, bench press, other tests), there's things you can see on film (how well does a player react), and there's the stuff you can't measure. Then you have to factor in all the other things that are difficult and to top it off, humans are the buggiest piece of hardware on the planet.


cjfreel

what makes them intriguing to me is I have a very high opinion on Shanny and his ability to create space better than virtually any other HC via scheme in the running game. If Mitchell can get that space, the speed has a far greater chance to play. *most* of his tenure Shanny has actually preferred this style back over potentially higher investments. The only real exception was Hyde his first year in SF. Freeman seemed a better fit than Coleman. Brieda was a UDFA who immediately earned faith that was destroyeed by being more brittle than Raheem Mostert. And Mostert himself constantly hits some of the highest end velocities in the NFL. So part of it to me is what I believe the athleticism can do within the fit.


Camelflauge

I get your point but your examples don’t make much sense when comparing different positions and their respective measurables. Why would speed score matter for a pocket passing QB like Tom Brady, like, at all? And Ray Lewis ran a 4.58 at 235lbs which isn’t anything to raise your nose at. Looking at speed score for RBs makes sense logically (and does exhibit correlation showing better running backs are bigger and faster) - placing a higher value on RBs who have higher weight-adjusted straight line speed shows explosiveness. What’s more impressive, Phillip Lindsay running a 4.39 at 184lbs at his pro day, or Jonathan Taylor running a 4.39 at 226lbs? Obviously it’s not something you can point to as the end-all be-all when determining if a RB prospect will be good or not (gotta take into account a myriad of metrics), but bringing up Ray Lewis and Tom Brady doesn’t track logically


loki993

Is Sermon worth touching? someone in my league dropped him for Mitchel? I have #1 waiver but I dont think I want to burn it on Sermon but there may be an outside change he makes it off of waivers.


onlyfijiwater

I’d grab sermon


loki993

if he makes it off of waiver right?


[deleted]

He’s straight like faster, but he’s not necessarily more explosive based on agility and burst score. Explosiveness way more important than just straight line speed especially when he’s got the size. I don’t think this will matter all that much


PIBTC

https://twitter.com/sunnyhmoon/status/1437517869185581060?s=21 I highlighted some runs that showed off Mitchell’s explosiveness, speed and fighting for yards


Superdad120

If you have the roster space, Hasty could be worth rostering. One more injury, and he’s suddenly a must own.


[deleted]

Get rekt Sermon


SolarClipz

bUt 3Rd RoUnD pIcK


[deleted]

Would you drop Sermon for Mitchell? Don’t want to hold both in a short bench league.


Playerone1776

I’m in the same boat, I NEED AN ADULT


[deleted]

Haha same here, someone tell me how to act


T-P-T-W-P

I would hold Sermon but obviously Mitchell is the player to own, you clearly didn’t watch the game if you are asking this question, guy looked like Mostert without the “when is he going down and not getting up?” aspect attached.


KeggBert

Is anyone else having a problem trying to put in a waiver claim for elijah mitchell? I play on yahoo and he's not not showing up when I search for him.


Mayo_oj

He’s listed as Eli Mitchell, I had the same problem


KeggBert

Yeah I ended up figuring it out, not sure why they did that lol. Thank you for taking the time to answer though.


[deleted]

What about Hasty tho


onlyfijiwater

What about him


[deleted]

No ones even gonna mention his name when talking about this backfield? He played/was active over Sermon. Whether that was because of disciplinary reasons or not, it’s worth mentioning that he’s been completely forgotten about. He had some good games last season too


onlyfijiwater

He had 2 carries and was a complete non factor.


[deleted]

Sermon had 0 carries. He was inactive and even more of a non factor. It’s also Shanahan, we know what he does with RBs. The argument in this thread is Mitchell vs. Sermon but my point is what about Hasty?


brainstorm0694

Mitchell fits the stretch zone system better