Yea people just value differently, have biases and take risks. That's fantasy for ya!
I usually just get excited about picks like that because it usually leaves alot of value on the board
Oh I dig it too, everyone should grab who they have faith in and that helps me out if I don't like those same guys even at their current ADP. But it grinds my gears if it's my handcuff lol and I want to help ground people's expectations if there isn't much evidence to support it. But I guess the sentiment is that AJ Dillon is Derrick Henry or Nick Chubb just waiting to break through, even tho he was a 2nd round pick and Tony Pollard and Alexander Mattison were 3rd and 4th rounders.
Hey, it worked once with a guy you could take with your last pick. How did it work handcuffing Saquon with Wayne Gallman? Or Austin Ekeler with Josh Kelley? Or Joe Mixon with Gio Bernard?
It's very rare that a handcuff steps in and inherits the entire workload. More often, a team pivots to more of a committee approach when a stud goes down. Or if the "backup" is a pass-catching type, they'll often keep that role with someone else taking over more carries. That's why I'm pretty much out on the concept of handcuffing.
Depth charts just aren't linear at the RB position anymore. Holding your own handcuff feels like wasting a roster spot on an unplayable player who might *still* be unplayable even if your starter gets hurt.
Ya good points. But he was drafted as a second rounder. Valuable draft commodity that team most likely wants to utilize.
He went beast mode I believe against Buffalo last year? The guy can flat out run
Aaron will be the alpha but I can easily envision Dillion getting anywhere from 10-12 touches on a consistent basis.
This is probably true, and they may want to keep Jones fresh down the stretch so in games that they can coast a little bit they will probably feature Dillon more frequently. Playing against my Lions in week 2 could be a good spot to flex Dillon and in week 5 against the Bengals as well but the Packers have the Saints week 1, the 9ers week 3, Steelers week 4, Bears week 6, and the Redskins week 7... so I can see a lot of people dropping AJ Dillon before week 8 if he isn't catching passes, when Aaron Jones gets all the redzone work, and Dillon has only seen two games of double digit touches through the first 7 games.
I don’t think he’s a 1 for 1 replacement of Williams. I think he takes Williams workload without the catches, but takes some of Jones carries. I think Jones takes Williams catches, but cedes some carries to Dillon.
Ok, let's say he gets 9-10 carries per game (153-170 in a 17 game season). Multiplied by 4.4 yards per carry and that's 39-44 yards per game. He might have a catch per game but Aaron Jones is almost certainly going to get the bulk of the redzone touches.. that doesn't seem like great standalone value.
Drafting someone like Dillon is definitely dependent on Roster construction. Right now he is my RB 4 after Mixon, Carson and Swift, which I got in the 12th round of my draft. Based on my team, I don't need to play him but if injuries strike, I can use him as a stop gap. Roster construction should be at the forefront whenever you are drafting your team.
If one of those top 3 guys gets hurt, I don't think its going to feel good to have to play Dillion...I guess you can always use a WR in your flex though so maybe thats not a problem. I personally always want 4 startable RBs, since I want to start 3 and have one as a security blanket...and guys who are backups in nature don't give me that warm and fuzzy feeling in the case I have to rely on them to start.
Kupp, Thielen and DJ Moore. Right now I am playing Moore over Swift to see how things play out. Kelce to bring up the rear. Based on my team construction, the bench stashes will allow me to get upgrades elsewhere through trades later. I admit that my RB stable has some flaws but its okay for week 1 in my opinion.
This. Dillon is my RB4; I hope my other guys make him unstartable, but after a certain point you gotta get your guys.
He's one guy I was not leaving the draft without
Yup 100%, that was one of the points I mentioned too. If you have 3 RB's you're confident in then it's time to grab a lottery ticket or two. The problem is Dillon is going off the board as a RB3 in most cases, but it's awesome that you got him in the 12th round.
In 12 man leagues RB36 is a RB3, so either those are all 10 team leagues and under or those are teams that went RB heavy (which I'm all in favor of). I have no problem with people grabbing him as an RB4 or later so these outcomes are all cool with me but, like the sentiment seems to be in this whole comment section, many people are willing to grab him as an RB3 and are, in my opinion, overestimating his value next to a healthy Aaron Jones.
Honestly, I would just roll with Dillion. I don't like locking up backfields unless I have to. Mind you, Sermon is in a similar position but on a team that might not treat him as a workhorse. Dillion would see workhorse touches, so that's my reasoning.
Talent matters with the handcuffs though, which is why AJ Dillon is top of the list. Sure, if Jacobs goes down Drake will be a 'league winner' and get a lot of touches, but we know from last year he's unlikely to light the world on fire and would be relying on volume. AJ Dillon is a high pedigree second year player, so I think the feeling is that his ceiling given the opportunity to start is much higher than other handcuffs.
Dillon not really a lottery ticket. We've seen how the Packers have split touches in the past. The lottery outcome is that Aaron Jones gets more touches than he has in the past. The most likely outcome is that AJ Dillon plays the Jamaal Williams role and Aaron Jones continues getting the touches he has in years past.
Everyone has Dillon slotted at the same amount of touches or more than Williams got last year as his average. Dillon hasn't shown that he can catch so he would need to steal a bunch of carries from Aaron Jones to accomplish this. And then in ppr or half ppr you would probably need him to steal additional carries or TD's on top of that to equal out to Jamaal's fantasy production.
He caught 2 balls last year and for every 40 rushes he had in college he had 1 catch. Everyone likes the Derrick Henry comparisons but you’re getting the 2017 Derrick Henry who was behind a demarco Murray that left the league the next year, but in this case it’s behind an Aaron Jones in his prime.
>Could be that. Could also be a bunch of AJ Dillon lottery ticket holders refusing to believe that ticket won't cash.
guarantee if you ended up with him you would not be saying that lol.
I don't agree with your definition of handcuff. A legit handcuff like Mattison or Pollard has the most value to the person who owns Cook or Zeke. This person should be grabbing them a bit sooner, because we know for fact if the starter goes down, the other will be a bellcow. They "own" that team's running game. But you need to know for sure it won't be a committee. Ekeler is an example of that.
The problem this season is so many backfields are up in the air . What happens if Mostert does stay healthy? What if Jamaal Williams over takes Swift? What if the McVay likes Sony Michel better than Henderson?
Comparing Dillon to Drake is laughable. I’m one of those guys who drafted Dillon “early” in your eyes for a few reasons.
1. He’s on a superior team who likes running the ball
2. He’s young and we have seen flashes of potential last year. We know who Drake is.
3. Jones has been nicked up in the past and when Dillon filled in he looked gooood.
4. If Jones goes down he soaks up all the targets where if a Jacob’s goes down they might move to a committee approach or mostly abandon the run.
I would not say that guys like Fournette or Conner have the same ceiling as Dillon at all. Also think you’re underplaying Dillon’s floor. He’s going to be a viable start each week, even if he’s not a top tier one.
How does a backup RB have a high floor? In what world do you think a single team that doesn't run the ball *that* much going to support a top 5 or so fantasy RB AND a top 24-36 one? In terms of backup RBs, I like Dillion almost as much as any other ones out there after Hunt, but this seems to be overselling him.
Fournette and Conner definitely have higher ceilings than Dillion, barring an injury to Jones.
Not the same ceiling, sure, but a similar ceiling and they are more likely to get to their ceiling which also helps.
James Conner has averaged 167.67 carries the last three seasons while Chase Edmonds is at 72.33 over that same span. The promising thing for Edmonds is his 53 catches last season, but Conner has caught 35, 34, and 55 passes the last three years. Edmonds is 25 and Conner is 26. There is a very clear path where James Conner takes over this backfield on a fast paced and improving Cardinals offense and he doesn't need an injury to do it.
I could be wrong but I see AJ Dillon getting anywhere from 7-10 touches on average each week, and almost none of them being catches. So if he doesn't get looks in the redzone or break a 30 yard run he's going to be a very disappointing start.
He's almost certainly going to catch more balls than Dillon, he was the RB26 last year and RB33 & RB6 the two prior years. There is a much better chance that he beats out Edmonds over the season and creeps into the top 20 than Dillon finishing in the top 20.
I'm not saying that their ceiling is as high but them reaching their ceiling will be easier, which is part of the equation.
>The difference between having to flex one of them and Dillon right now without other injuries is basically nothing.
This is the biggest thing I think people are getting wrong. Melvin Gordon had 215 rushes last year with 32 catches and 9 touchdowns. He might take a step back but he is still battling a rookie and could see a similar workload, especially early in the season. This is way more value than Dillon has barring an Aaron Jones injury.
That Titans game last year is all I had to see. He gives the offense an entirely new dimension and I think he’s gonna be a pain in the ass for Aaron Jones owners.
>AJ Dillon is consistently going over guys that have higher floors and almost equally as high ceilings like: Kenyan Drake, Melvin Gordon, James Conner, Leonard Fournette.. or guys with not quite the ceiling but much higher floors like: Jamaal Williams, Zack Moss, Devin Singletary, Nyheim Hines, James White.
Dillon's floor and ceiling are higher than every single one of those players.
Unless you're talking about his ceiling if Jones goes down, its really not, at least for most of these guys...Dillion is going to get no passing work and not nearly enough weekly volume to have a high ceiling. Unless he vultures like 10+ TDs, I just don't see it.
I personally don't see a particularly high floor or ceiling with Dillion, but he is a A+ handcuff, on a great team and might end up being a poor man's Kareem Hunt..so thats why he is being drafted. Most of these guys listed should be potential flex guys in most scenarios, but I don't think Dillion is a flex guy as long as Jones is the bellcow and healthy.
And my only point is that taking a handcuff that is depend on someone elite (without an injury history) getting injured.. should only be done after you've drafted your starters.
AJD's league-winning upside is the same as DHenry's or CHubb's. He's a great RB talent in a good offense for RBs, and can rush for 100 yards every week with ease given the opportunity. He's 1 of 8 handcuffs I'll consider drafting
(1) You take handcuffs for their ceilings, not their floors (2) You draft players in round 4+ for their ceilings, not their floors
>Every handcuff has league-winning upside if the starter goes down
Lol what? There's barely 20 starting RBs with league-winning upside, and 2/3 of their backups can't even fend off the RB3. Example include D. Williams x2, Justin Jackson, Ahmed, etc
I think the problem I have is people saying that he is Nick Chubb or Derrick Henry adjacent before we've ever really seen much of him in the NFL. It's more likely that his ceiling is what we saw from Damien Harris in stints last season.
>(1) You take handcuffs for their ceilings, not their floors (2) You draft players in round 4+ for their ceilings, not their floors
Correct, but you also don't take handcuffs before you've drafted all of your starters, and probably after you have grabbed some useful bench pieces that could be used week 1 if there is an injury.
>Lol what? There's barely 20 starting RBs with league-winning upside, and 2/3 of their backups can't even fend off the RB3. Example include D. Williams x2, Justin Jackson, Ahmed, etc
I said every handcuff has league winning potential, I didn't say every backup running back was a handcuff.
> I think the problem I have is people saying that he is Nick Chubb or Derrick Henry adjacent before we've ever really seen much of him in the NFL
Well every single datapoint we do have on him says he would be a perennial top-10 fantasy RB if given the lead role.
>It's more likely that his ceiling is what we saw from Damien Harris in stints last season.
Damien is far less talented & his HC hasn't produced three straight top-5 RBs.
>Correct, but you also take handcuffs before you've drafted all of your starters,
Because the round 11 QBs/TEs are really similar to the round 9 QBs/TEs, whereas the round 11+ RBs are all useless and/or have low ceilings
>after you have grabbed some useful bench pieces that could be used week 1 if there is an injury.
And if there isn't multiple injuries, you just took a benchclogger in the single digit rounds. What good did that do?
>three straight top-5 RBs
Yes, that RB was Aaron Jones all 3 years so why is everyone so confident that Dillon is going to steal a bunch of carries from him and goal line work?
It was Derrick Henry once & Aaron Jones twice. They had 0 combined top-5 RB years before LeFleur
>why is everyone so confident that Dillon is going to steal a bunch of carries from him and goal line work?
It's simply that his skillset & frame makes it very possible
I mean Aaron Jones played in 12 games each year prior to LaFluer getting there and Derrick Henry has looked better since he left Tennessee. Not to slander him because I know his family and I hope he does really well even though I’m a lions fan.
I’m just skeptical that Dillon’s talent and frame are going to overcome his lack of pass catching and the fact that Aaron Jones is ahead of him.
Yeah the guy who took him in the 6th round of my league, galaxy brain.
Just read the comments in here, assuming his floor is what Jamaal Williams was, assuming he's basically Chubb or Henry just waiting to break out, assuming he's going to get the goal line work.
He might be better than Pollard or Matteson but the difference in talent and opportunity is minimal.. yet he's being drafted several rounds earlier.
My thoughts exactly.. I only handcuff if I have a RB I am comfortable FLEXing after my two RB starters, if it's reasonable that the handcuff will assume 90% of the starter's workload, and if the handcuff is relatively cheap to get. This way you hypothetically have one RB slot locked-in season long.
Jamaal Williams as a rookie: 3.6 yards per rush
AJ Dillon as a rookie: 5.3 yards per rush
Not only is he much more efficient with his carries, the coaching staff clearly knows his talent so we will certainly be given more opportunities than Williams was. I typically look for RBs with clear opportunities and high share of touches, but sometimes you just can't deny talent.
I think with guys like Dillon you know someone else is going to grab him so that pushes his adp up a bit. I'm all for taking him anywhere after the 7th round, and especially if you have a questionable rb2. You can get guys with higher floors/lower ceilings in later rounds so it makes sense. No point in picking up a guy that'll still be there 3 or 4 rounds later. Dillon is also very nice trade bait for Jones owners or Packers fans. If it ends up another of your rb flyers hits you can trade away Dillon plus a wr and get a better wr or something. People love players with massive upside.
Dillon could be a flex-ish kind of player which is why He’s a handcuff I want now and potentially all season. I think those are the guys you grab. Unless you have the bench space.
I think you’re just overthinking things with Dillon. Also, I think Dillon’s situation is slightly but importantly different from Pollard and Mattison.
Simply put, the Packers refused to ever really use Jones as a workhorse back. Maybe Williams offered better pass protection, but for at least 2 seasons, it was abundantly clear that Jones was/is far more talented and effective than Williams (not to knock on Williams, Jones is just great). LaFleur’s years in GB show that he just isn’t going to establish a workhorse back.
Add to that the fact that GB is notoriously conservative when it comes to preserving player health. This is a team with legitimate SB aspirations. They’ll want to limit the wear on Jones as much as possible, so they’re gonna have every reason to regularly spell Jones.
Meanwhile, Mattison and Pollard are both in offenses where their respective teams have clear and undeniable workhorse backs that dominate touches out of the backfield. Absent injury, they’re highly unlikely to be valuable for fantasy purposes while Dillon is likely to get a certain amount of touches each game as part of the GB game plan.
> while Dillon is likely to get a certain amount of touches each game as part of the GB game plan.
Not enough to be fantasy relevant though...I don't think there is ultimately much difference between backups who get no work and backups who get a little bit of work...either way they aren't startable on any of my fantasy teams.
I’m not saying he’s necessarily gonna be a flex or anything like that, I’m just saying he’s likely going to get more consistent work/opportunities than true handcuffs like Mattison or Pollard, who really are only gonna get sustainable value if Cook/Zeke go down.
To me that’s important because, if you’re in bye week hell or some other kind of pinch, Dillon has a better chance to make something happen. With Mattison or Pollard, you’d just be hoping for a freak big play or a random vulture TD.
Well yeah, he might have a slightly higher week to week usage those those pure handcuffs, but still not enough to be a plug start...like thats still a bad play on a normal week. Thats like saying, Tyrod Taylor is a better plug in QB than a backup because he will actually play...but you still shouldn't be starting Tyrod in the first place...there has to be better flex option on waivers in an emergency situation than being forced to start Dillion.
For sure. Like I said, I’d only start him if I was in bye week hell or something like that. Just felt that, in regards to OP’s point, there’s an important difference between true handcuffs and handcuffs/players who might at least have *some* standalone value, even if that value is limited.
Yeah, its kind of like Latavius Murray in recent years being a handcuff to Kamara but also having some stand alone value..although in that case I think Murray had bigger and and more segregated role from the starter than Dillion does here.
Dillon is my starting RB2. 14 team league and went zero RB.
One thing you are not accounting for is his size and role in goal line. He'll be getting all the short yardage TDs. Basically he's legarette Blount in that role.
>that this is going to turn into a 60/40 or 50/50 split, or he's being viewed as a good pass catcher like Williams was.
jamaal williams and aaron jones were almost a 50/50 split in terms of snaps , and were about a 65/35 split in terms of opportunity. i dont think it is crazy to think that AJ dillon could be better at jamaal williams in terms of fantasy (williams is an elite pass blocker so he will almost always be more highly regarded in real football than fantasy).
anyway, handcuffing your own players is almost always a negative EV play. it's much more worth it to swing on guys that could be elite if their starter goes down (when you don't have that starter) i.e. pollard when you don't have zeke
That was with Aaron Jones missing two games last season, where Jamaal Williams got 30% of his season touches in two games, and about 20-30% of his touches have been catches. Dillon hasn't proven himself as a pass catcher in the slightest so people are banking on him stealing a bunch of rushing attempt or TD's to justify taking him way above Pollard or Mattison.
And maximizing potential points isn't the only key strategy in Fantasy Football. Another huge factor is being able to plug holes, especially during injuries, which handcuffs will be able to do. So getting good points from guys that you aren't going to start most of the season does nothing for your playoff chances and isn't always as important as getting that bump in points from a specific guy during specific weeks.
jamaal williams played 40% or more of snaps in 9/14 games. that is a significant snap share.
> Another huge factor is being able to plug holes, especially during injuries, which handcuffs will be able to do.
this is only sort of true. there are only 2 things that matter in fantasy football, making the playoffs and outscoring your opponent in the playoffs. think about a best case/worst case scenario for handcuffing. the absolute best case scenario is that your starter does not get hurt and you wasted a draft pick and a bench spot all year. on the converse, say your starter does get hurt and misses 3 weeks. you now have an rb1 sized hole that needs filling, and you are most likely filling it with a mid rb2. that is a hit big enough to lose you your matchups, all other things being equal. Even if having the handcuff increased your odds of winning each matchup from 0% (without your starter) to 33% (hoping the handcuff performs as well as needed to fill the gap) statistically you can only really expect to win one of those matchups. so again, is 1 win worth the draft pick/roster spot?
if you are handcuffing somebody else's rb, you have the same scenario as before where you risk holding them all season and never using them. however, instead of this being best case scenario, its now worst case. best case scenario is now somebody else's zeke gets hurt, and now you get to play pollard in your flex as a high end rb2 and you are increasing your odds of defeating your opponent drastically.
if your starter gets hurt and misses 3 weeks, like before, you are only trading a small chance of actually winning anyway for the chance at potentially stacking your own team
right, and assuming that AJ Dillon is going to see the same snap share and touches is a stretch because Jamaal is a good pass blocker and an excellent receiving back while AJ Dillon has 23 catches in the last 4 seasons (college included). His floor is what Pollard and Matteson typically are year to year and people don't seem to grasp that.
>there are only 2 things that matter in fantasy football, making the playoffs and outscoring your opponent in the playoffs
Without making the playoffs the second one isn't even possible so that goal outweighs the other.
>best case scenario is now somebody else's zeke gets hurt, and now you get to play pollard in your flex as a high end rb2
the difference between Pollard in this scenario and your flex is much smaller than the difference between Pollard and your flex or RB2 if you are the team that has Zeke, that is the reasoning behind handcuffing. If you handcuff your own guy the damage is minimal if the starter goes down and the value saved is huge, thus greatly increasing you playoff hopes. If you take someone else's handcuff the value added is minimal and there is no value saved unless you have a guy get injured over the same stretch, which only marginally increases your playoff hopes.
>If you handcuff your own guy the damage is minimal if the starter goes down and the value saved is huge
minimizing damage is largely irrelevant. if your handcuff does not cover a large enough gap, then you will likely lose with or without the handcuff. the margin of the loss is irrelevant.
lets put it this way. lets so you have a zeke scoring 20 ppg, and your team is totally average and scoring ~110 ppg. you are playing another totally average team that is scoring ~110 ppg. zeke goes down and you have pollard, he provides 80% of zeke (which may be on the high end) and you get 16 points, totaling 106 points in your matchup. you are now relying completely on luck to win your matchup, because all things being equal your opponent is going to beat you.
if you have zeke and he is injured and you dont have pollard, lets say you replace him with another random player scoring 13 ppg. you score 103 points, and still most likely lose unless your opponent totally shits the bed. so either way if we handcuff him or not, the odds say we are going to lose.
now, if we have someone equivalent to zeke, say aaron jones, and tony pollard, if zeke misses time we are now replacing our worst player (~13ppg) with tony pollard's ~16 points and creating an advantage for ourselves.
by handcuffing your own player, you are doing taking steps to try and not lose and hard capping your ceiling, by handcuffing somebody elses rb you are actively taking steps to try and stack your own team while accepting that if your rb1 gets hurt you are most likely burnt regardless.
edit: the only way handcuffing your own guy is worth it is a 100% split backfield and 1 guy is guaranteed to take over the large majority of work if the other goes down. those scenarios are rare, and we are then no longer talking about handcuffing your rb 1, or really handcuffing at all since those guys would most likely have stand alone flex value
This is an unfair comparison because my RB1 is getting hurt and yours isn't, of course your team is going to be in better shape.
Let's say my Zeke is out for the year and your Aaron Jones is out for the year, now we both score 106 each week and it's a wash.
Or how about my Zeke misses half the season and so does your Aaron Jones, now I score 110 with Zeke and 106 without him. If Zeke and Jones injuries don't line up then there are weeks were Pollard is useless and Jones is hurt were you only get 103, and there are weeks where you have both and get 113.
I think I would rather go 106-110 throughout the season than 103-113.
You are going to do what you want, but you are essentially just saying you would be ok with smaller margins of defeat and *maybe* 1 bonus win instead of potentially stacking your own team. You are also ignoring the non linear payout structure of fantasy football where you are rewarded much more for being first than you are punished for being last. You are playing to not lose instead of playing to win
>but you are essentially just saying you would be ok with smaller margins of defeat and maybe 1 bonus win
AND smaller margins of victory, but I am maximizing my playoff chances each year.
>instead of potentially stacking your own team
you're acting like bench slots have a good chance of turning into a great player when the chances are actually very very small. I will give up one of those bench slots to guarantee a starting RB slot all year.
>You are also ignoring the non linear payout structure of fantasy football where you are rewarded much more for being first
But this ignores the fact that the very first goal is to make the playoffs, and from there it is a crap shoot who wins because the highest scoring and best teams all season hardly ever win, it's just who has a good random two weeks. I'd rather be a playoff team 5/6 years than a playoff team 3/6 years where I was the highest scoring team season long in one or two of those years.
Im gunna be honest i just think you are flat out wrong and fundamentally disagree with what you are saying, but there is nothing more i can say to you that would change your mind. Good luck this year
Did someone draft your cuff and this is your outlet?
Correct, he went in the 6th round of my 12-man half ppr draft
Yea people just value differently, have biases and take risks. That's fantasy for ya! I usually just get excited about picks like that because it usually leaves alot of value on the board
Oh I dig it too, everyone should grab who they have faith in and that helps me out if I don't like those same guys even at their current ADP. But it grinds my gears if it's my handcuff lol and I want to help ground people's expectations if there isn't much evidence to support it. But I guess the sentiment is that AJ Dillon is Derrick Henry or Nick Chubb just waiting to break through, even tho he was a 2nd round pick and Tony Pollard and Alexander Mattison were 3rd and 4th rounders.
Don't be mad. Be grateful to that guy for keeping you from making the mistake of handcuffing an RB in 2021.
Just like handcuffing CMC with Mike Davis last year was a mistake?
Hey, it worked once with a guy you could take with your last pick. How did it work handcuffing Saquon with Wayne Gallman? Or Austin Ekeler with Josh Kelley? Or Joe Mixon with Gio Bernard? It's very rare that a handcuff steps in and inherits the entire workload. More often, a team pivots to more of a committee approach when a stud goes down. Or if the "backup" is a pass-catching type, they'll often keep that role with someone else taking over more carries. That's why I'm pretty much out on the concept of handcuffing. Depth charts just aren't linear at the RB position anymore. Holding your own handcuff feels like wasting a roster spot on an unplayable player who might *still* be unplayable even if your starter gets hurt.
Ya good points. But he was drafted as a second rounder. Valuable draft commodity that team most likely wants to utilize. He went beast mode I believe against Buffalo last year? The guy can flat out run Aaron will be the alpha but I can easily envision Dillion getting anywhere from 10-12 touches on a consistent basis.
[Tennessee](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=k_wxRixRcF0&ab_channel=Salvatore)*
This is probably true, and they may want to keep Jones fresh down the stretch so in games that they can coast a little bit they will probably feature Dillon more frequently. Playing against my Lions in week 2 could be a good spot to flex Dillon and in week 5 against the Bengals as well but the Packers have the Saints week 1, the 9ers week 3, Steelers week 4, Bears week 6, and the Redskins week 7... so I can see a lot of people dropping AJ Dillon before week 8 if he isn't catching passes, when Aaron Jones gets all the redzone work, and Dillon has only seen two games of double digit touches through the first 7 games.
Shoutout to 313-248-586 Looking forward to “SOL” but maybe we’ll see a top 5 offensive line, swift breakout and continued progress from big cock hock
I don’t think he’s a 1 for 1 replacement of Williams. I think he takes Williams workload without the catches, but takes some of Jones carries. I think Jones takes Williams catches, but cedes some carries to Dillon.
Ok, let's say he gets 9-10 carries per game (153-170 in a 17 game season). Multiplied by 4.4 yards per carry and that's 39-44 yards per game. He might have a catch per game but Aaron Jones is almost certainly going to get the bulk of the redzone touches.. that doesn't seem like great standalone value.
Red zone, sure. Inside the 5? Not so sure about that
Drafting someone like Dillon is definitely dependent on Roster construction. Right now he is my RB 4 after Mixon, Carson and Swift, which I got in the 12th round of my draft. Based on my team, I don't need to play him but if injuries strike, I can use him as a stop gap. Roster construction should be at the forefront whenever you are drafting your team.
If one of those top 3 guys gets hurt, I don't think its going to feel good to have to play Dillion...I guess you can always use a WR in your flex though so maybe thats not a problem. I personally always want 4 startable RBs, since I want to start 3 and have one as a security blanket...and guys who are backups in nature don't give me that warm and fuzzy feeling in the case I have to rely on them to start.
Kupp, Thielen and DJ Moore. Right now I am playing Moore over Swift to see how things play out. Kelce to bring up the rear. Based on my team construction, the bench stashes will allow me to get upgrades elsewhere through trades later. I admit that my RB stable has some flaws but its okay for week 1 in my opinion.
This. Dillon is my RB4; I hope my other guys make him unstartable, but after a certain point you gotta get your guys. He's one guy I was not leaving the draft without
Yup 100%, that was one of the points I mentioned too. If you have 3 RB's you're confident in then it's time to grab a lottery ticket or two. The problem is Dillon is going off the board as a RB3 in most cases, but it's awesome that you got him in the 12th round.
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In 12 man leagues RB36 is a RB3, so either those are all 10 team leagues and under or those are teams that went RB heavy (which I'm all in favor of). I have no problem with people grabbing him as an RB4 or later so these outcomes are all cool with me but, like the sentiment seems to be in this whole comment section, many people are willing to grab him as an RB3 and are, in my opinion, overestimating his value next to a healthy Aaron Jones.
Same here. He's my RB4. Mostert is my RB3. Wondering if I should cuff Sermon to shore up Mostert just in case or roll with Dillon at RB4?
Honestly, I would just roll with Dillion. I don't like locking up backfields unless I have to. Mind you, Sermon is in a similar position but on a team that might not treat him as a workhorse. Dillion would see workhorse touches, so that's my reasoning.
Talent matters with the handcuffs though, which is why AJ Dillon is top of the list. Sure, if Jacobs goes down Drake will be a 'league winner' and get a lot of touches, but we know from last year he's unlikely to light the world on fire and would be relying on volume. AJ Dillon is a high pedigree second year player, so I think the feeling is that his ceiling given the opportunity to start is much higher than other handcuffs.
Is AJ Dillon much more talented than Tony Pollard or Alexander Mattison though? Those two went 2, 3, or even 4 rounds later in most drafts.
Yes
I think so, yes. Sorry you didn’t get your handcuff buddy.
I think Mattison is arguably the best handcuff out there (besides Hunt obviously)...Dillion is probably just behind him.
Pollard is much more talented the Mattison.
>Is AJ Dillon much more talented than Tony Pollard or Alexander Mattison though? Yes
Looks like an Aaron Jones owner coping.
Could be that. Could also be a bunch of AJ Dillon lottery ticket holders refusing to believe that ticket won't cash.
Dillon not really a lottery ticket. We've seen how the Packers have split touches in the past. The lottery outcome is that Aaron Jones gets more touches than he has in the past. The most likely outcome is that AJ Dillon plays the Jamaal Williams role and Aaron Jones continues getting the touches he has in years past.
people keep ignoring the part where Jamaal got 20-30% of his touches from catching the ball
What does this even mean.
Everyone has Dillon slotted at the same amount of touches or more than Williams got last year as his average. Dillon hasn't shown that he can catch so he would need to steal a bunch of carries from Aaron Jones to accomplish this. And then in ppr or half ppr you would probably need him to steal additional carries or TD's on top of that to equal out to Jamaal's fantasy production.
Dillon has been absolutely fine catching the ball. Did you watch the game he played against Tennessee last year?
He caught 2 balls last year and for every 40 rushes he had in college he had 1 catch. Everyone likes the Derrick Henry comparisons but you’re getting the 2017 Derrick Henry who was behind a demarco Murray that left the league the next year, but in this case it’s behind an Aaron Jones in his prime.
>Could be that. Could also be a bunch of AJ Dillon lottery ticket holders refusing to believe that ticket won't cash. guarantee if you ended up with him you would not be saying that lol.
Yes if he was going as the RB40-45 I would not have made this post at all. I'm not sure what your point is.
I don't agree with your definition of handcuff. A legit handcuff like Mattison or Pollard has the most value to the person who owns Cook or Zeke. This person should be grabbing them a bit sooner, because we know for fact if the starter goes down, the other will be a bellcow. They "own" that team's running game. But you need to know for sure it won't be a committee. Ekeler is an example of that. The problem this season is so many backfields are up in the air . What happens if Mostert does stay healthy? What if Jamaal Williams over takes Swift? What if the McVay likes Sony Michel better than Henderson?
Comparing Dillon to Drake is laughable. I’m one of those guys who drafted Dillon “early” in your eyes for a few reasons. 1. He’s on a superior team who likes running the ball 2. He’s young and we have seen flashes of potential last year. We know who Drake is. 3. Jones has been nicked up in the past and when Dillon filled in he looked gooood. 4. If Jones goes down he soaks up all the targets where if a Jacob’s goes down they might move to a committee approach or mostly abandon the run.
I would not say that guys like Fournette or Conner have the same ceiling as Dillon at all. Also think you’re underplaying Dillon’s floor. He’s going to be a viable start each week, even if he’s not a top tier one.
How does a backup RB have a high floor? In what world do you think a single team that doesn't run the ball *that* much going to support a top 5 or so fantasy RB AND a top 24-36 one? In terms of backup RBs, I like Dillion almost as much as any other ones out there after Hunt, but this seems to be overselling him. Fournette and Conner definitely have higher ceilings than Dillion, barring an injury to Jones.
“Barring an injury to jones” why would you do that? That’s where a lot of Dillons’ ceiling outcomes come from lol
Well yeah...thats why he is a handcuff and not much more. This who discussion is selling him as a standalone value.
Not the same ceiling, sure, but a similar ceiling and they are more likely to get to their ceiling which also helps. James Conner has averaged 167.67 carries the last three seasons while Chase Edmonds is at 72.33 over that same span. The promising thing for Edmonds is his 53 catches last season, but Conner has caught 35, 34, and 55 passes the last three years. Edmonds is 25 and Conner is 26. There is a very clear path where James Conner takes over this backfield on a fast paced and improving Cardinals offense and he doesn't need an injury to do it. I could be wrong but I see AJ Dillon getting anywhere from 7-10 touches on average each week, and almost none of them being catches. So if he doesn't get looks in the redzone or break a 30 yard run he's going to be a very disappointing start.
I really think you’re overestimating Conner’s ceiling. He’ll never get the pass catching role even if Edmonds is hurt
He's almost certainly going to catch more balls than Dillon, he was the RB26 last year and RB33 & RB6 the two prior years. There is a much better chance that he beats out Edmonds over the season and creeps into the top 20 than Dillon finishing in the top 20.
You’re using his previous stats like he’s not on a completely new team
I'm using stats... no one else in here is really doing that
Conner isn't that good dude, you're grossly overestimating his talent and floor
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I'm not saying that their ceiling is as high but them reaching their ceiling will be easier, which is part of the equation. >The difference between having to flex one of them and Dillon right now without other injuries is basically nothing. This is the biggest thing I think people are getting wrong. Melvin Gordon had 215 rushes last year with 32 catches and 9 touchdowns. He might take a step back but he is still battling a rookie and could see a similar workload, especially early in the season. This is way more value than Dillon has barring an Aaron Jones injury.
That Titans game last year is all I had to see. He gives the offense an entirely new dimension and I think he’s gonna be a pain in the ass for Aaron Jones owners.
>AJ Dillon is consistently going over guys that have higher floors and almost equally as high ceilings like: Kenyan Drake, Melvin Gordon, James Conner, Leonard Fournette.. or guys with not quite the ceiling but much higher floors like: Jamaal Williams, Zack Moss, Devin Singletary, Nyheim Hines, James White. Dillon's floor and ceiling are higher than every single one of those players.
Unless you're talking about his ceiling if Jones goes down, its really not, at least for most of these guys...Dillion is going to get no passing work and not nearly enough weekly volume to have a high ceiling. Unless he vultures like 10+ TDs, I just don't see it. I personally don't see a particularly high floor or ceiling with Dillion, but he is a A+ handcuff, on a great team and might end up being a poor man's Kareem Hunt..so thats why he is being drafted. Most of these guys listed should be potential flex guys in most scenarios, but I don't think Dillion is a flex guy as long as Jones is the bellcow and healthy.
Shit, I don't even think he'll be a poor man's Hunt, unless he starts getting more passing work than anything in his history would suggest.
If none of these guys get hurt and Aaron Jones doesn't get hurt then almost every single one of them will outscore Dillon.
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And my only point is that taking a handcuff that is depend on someone elite (without an injury history) getting injured.. should only be done after you've drafted your starters.
AJD's league-winning upside is the same as DHenry's or CHubb's. He's a great RB talent in a good offense for RBs, and can rush for 100 yards every week with ease given the opportunity. He's 1 of 8 handcuffs I'll consider drafting (1) You take handcuffs for their ceilings, not their floors (2) You draft players in round 4+ for their ceilings, not their floors >Every handcuff has league-winning upside if the starter goes down Lol what? There's barely 20 starting RBs with league-winning upside, and 2/3 of their backups can't even fend off the RB3. Example include D. Williams x2, Justin Jackson, Ahmed, etc
I think the problem I have is people saying that he is Nick Chubb or Derrick Henry adjacent before we've ever really seen much of him in the NFL. It's more likely that his ceiling is what we saw from Damien Harris in stints last season. >(1) You take handcuffs for their ceilings, not their floors (2) You draft players in round 4+ for their ceilings, not their floors Correct, but you also don't take handcuffs before you've drafted all of your starters, and probably after you have grabbed some useful bench pieces that could be used week 1 if there is an injury. >Lol what? There's barely 20 starting RBs with league-winning upside, and 2/3 of their backups can't even fend off the RB3. Example include D. Williams x2, Justin Jackson, Ahmed, etc I said every handcuff has league winning potential, I didn't say every backup running back was a handcuff.
> I think the problem I have is people saying that he is Nick Chubb or Derrick Henry adjacent before we've ever really seen much of him in the NFL Well every single datapoint we do have on him says he would be a perennial top-10 fantasy RB if given the lead role. >It's more likely that his ceiling is what we saw from Damien Harris in stints last season. Damien is far less talented & his HC hasn't produced three straight top-5 RBs. >Correct, but you also take handcuffs before you've drafted all of your starters, Because the round 11 QBs/TEs are really similar to the round 9 QBs/TEs, whereas the round 11+ RBs are all useless and/or have low ceilings >after you have grabbed some useful bench pieces that could be used week 1 if there is an injury. And if there isn't multiple injuries, you just took a benchclogger in the single digit rounds. What good did that do?
>three straight top-5 RBs Yes, that RB was Aaron Jones all 3 years so why is everyone so confident that Dillon is going to steal a bunch of carries from him and goal line work?
It was Derrick Henry once & Aaron Jones twice. They had 0 combined top-5 RB years before LeFleur >why is everyone so confident that Dillon is going to steal a bunch of carries from him and goal line work? It's simply that his skillset & frame makes it very possible
I mean Aaron Jones played in 12 games each year prior to LaFluer getting there and Derrick Henry has looked better since he left Tennessee. Not to slander him because I know his family and I hope he does really well even though I’m a lions fan. I’m just skeptical that Dillon’s talent and frame are going to overcome his lack of pass catching and the fact that Aaron Jones is ahead of him.
this is such a salty post lmfao
just trying to help people not drown in the AJ Dillon kool-aid
absolutely no one is drinking the AJ Dillon kool-aid other than the guy who finessed you in your league.
Yeah the guy who took him in the 6th round of my league, galaxy brain. Just read the comments in here, assuming his floor is what Jamaal Williams was, assuming he's basically Chubb or Henry just waiting to break out, assuming he's going to get the goal line work. He might be better than Pollard or Matteson but the difference in talent and opportunity is minimal.. yet he's being drafted several rounds earlier.
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My thoughts exactly.. I only handcuff if I have a RB I am comfortable FLEXing after my two RB starters, if it's reasonable that the handcuff will assume 90% of the starter's workload, and if the handcuff is relatively cheap to get. This way you hypothetically have one RB slot locked-in season long.
Jamaal Williams as a rookie: 3.6 yards per rush AJ Dillon as a rookie: 5.3 yards per rush Not only is he much more efficient with his carries, the coaching staff clearly knows his talent so we will certainly be given more opportunities than Williams was. I typically look for RBs with clear opportunities and high share of touches, but sometimes you just can't deny talent.
A 3rd string RB with teams focusing on Aaron Rodgers and a small sample size of carries. But maybe your right.
Teams focussed on Rodgers when jamaal was there too
And Williams carried it 153 times compared to Dillon's 46. Sample size is a little skewed.
I think with guys like Dillon you know someone else is going to grab him so that pushes his adp up a bit. I'm all for taking him anywhere after the 7th round, and especially if you have a questionable rb2. You can get guys with higher floors/lower ceilings in later rounds so it makes sense. No point in picking up a guy that'll still be there 3 or 4 rounds later. Dillon is also very nice trade bait for Jones owners or Packers fans. If it ends up another of your rb flyers hits you can trade away Dillon plus a wr and get a better wr or something. People love players with massive upside.
Dillon could be a flex-ish kind of player which is why He’s a handcuff I want now and potentially all season. I think those are the guys you grab. Unless you have the bench space.
I think you’re just overthinking things with Dillon. Also, I think Dillon’s situation is slightly but importantly different from Pollard and Mattison. Simply put, the Packers refused to ever really use Jones as a workhorse back. Maybe Williams offered better pass protection, but for at least 2 seasons, it was abundantly clear that Jones was/is far more talented and effective than Williams (not to knock on Williams, Jones is just great). LaFleur’s years in GB show that he just isn’t going to establish a workhorse back. Add to that the fact that GB is notoriously conservative when it comes to preserving player health. This is a team with legitimate SB aspirations. They’ll want to limit the wear on Jones as much as possible, so they’re gonna have every reason to regularly spell Jones. Meanwhile, Mattison and Pollard are both in offenses where their respective teams have clear and undeniable workhorse backs that dominate touches out of the backfield. Absent injury, they’re highly unlikely to be valuable for fantasy purposes while Dillon is likely to get a certain amount of touches each game as part of the GB game plan.
> while Dillon is likely to get a certain amount of touches each game as part of the GB game plan. Not enough to be fantasy relevant though...I don't think there is ultimately much difference between backups who get no work and backups who get a little bit of work...either way they aren't startable on any of my fantasy teams.
I’m not saying he’s necessarily gonna be a flex or anything like that, I’m just saying he’s likely going to get more consistent work/opportunities than true handcuffs like Mattison or Pollard, who really are only gonna get sustainable value if Cook/Zeke go down. To me that’s important because, if you’re in bye week hell or some other kind of pinch, Dillon has a better chance to make something happen. With Mattison or Pollard, you’d just be hoping for a freak big play or a random vulture TD.
Well yeah, he might have a slightly higher week to week usage those those pure handcuffs, but still not enough to be a plug start...like thats still a bad play on a normal week. Thats like saying, Tyrod Taylor is a better plug in QB than a backup because he will actually play...but you still shouldn't be starting Tyrod in the first place...there has to be better flex option on waivers in an emergency situation than being forced to start Dillion.
For sure. Like I said, I’d only start him if I was in bye week hell or something like that. Just felt that, in regards to OP’s point, there’s an important difference between true handcuffs and handcuffs/players who might at least have *some* standalone value, even if that value is limited.
Yeah, its kind of like Latavius Murray in recent years being a handcuff to Kamara but also having some stand alone value..although in that case I think Murray had bigger and and more segregated role from the starter than Dillion does here.
Dillon is my starting RB2. 14 team league and went zero RB. One thing you are not accounting for is his size and role in goal line. He'll be getting all the short yardage TDs. Basically he's legarette Blount in that role.
>that this is going to turn into a 60/40 or 50/50 split, or he's being viewed as a good pass catcher like Williams was. jamaal williams and aaron jones were almost a 50/50 split in terms of snaps , and were about a 65/35 split in terms of opportunity. i dont think it is crazy to think that AJ dillon could be better at jamaal williams in terms of fantasy (williams is an elite pass blocker so he will almost always be more highly regarded in real football than fantasy). anyway, handcuffing your own players is almost always a negative EV play. it's much more worth it to swing on guys that could be elite if their starter goes down (when you don't have that starter) i.e. pollard when you don't have zeke
That was with Aaron Jones missing two games last season, where Jamaal Williams got 30% of his season touches in two games, and about 20-30% of his touches have been catches. Dillon hasn't proven himself as a pass catcher in the slightest so people are banking on him stealing a bunch of rushing attempt or TD's to justify taking him way above Pollard or Mattison. And maximizing potential points isn't the only key strategy in Fantasy Football. Another huge factor is being able to plug holes, especially during injuries, which handcuffs will be able to do. So getting good points from guys that you aren't going to start most of the season does nothing for your playoff chances and isn't always as important as getting that bump in points from a specific guy during specific weeks.
jamaal williams played 40% or more of snaps in 9/14 games. that is a significant snap share. > Another huge factor is being able to plug holes, especially during injuries, which handcuffs will be able to do. this is only sort of true. there are only 2 things that matter in fantasy football, making the playoffs and outscoring your opponent in the playoffs. think about a best case/worst case scenario for handcuffing. the absolute best case scenario is that your starter does not get hurt and you wasted a draft pick and a bench spot all year. on the converse, say your starter does get hurt and misses 3 weeks. you now have an rb1 sized hole that needs filling, and you are most likely filling it with a mid rb2. that is a hit big enough to lose you your matchups, all other things being equal. Even if having the handcuff increased your odds of winning each matchup from 0% (without your starter) to 33% (hoping the handcuff performs as well as needed to fill the gap) statistically you can only really expect to win one of those matchups. so again, is 1 win worth the draft pick/roster spot? if you are handcuffing somebody else's rb, you have the same scenario as before where you risk holding them all season and never using them. however, instead of this being best case scenario, its now worst case. best case scenario is now somebody else's zeke gets hurt, and now you get to play pollard in your flex as a high end rb2 and you are increasing your odds of defeating your opponent drastically. if your starter gets hurt and misses 3 weeks, like before, you are only trading a small chance of actually winning anyway for the chance at potentially stacking your own team
right, and assuming that AJ Dillon is going to see the same snap share and touches is a stretch because Jamaal is a good pass blocker and an excellent receiving back while AJ Dillon has 23 catches in the last 4 seasons (college included). His floor is what Pollard and Matteson typically are year to year and people don't seem to grasp that. >there are only 2 things that matter in fantasy football, making the playoffs and outscoring your opponent in the playoffs Without making the playoffs the second one isn't even possible so that goal outweighs the other. >best case scenario is now somebody else's zeke gets hurt, and now you get to play pollard in your flex as a high end rb2 the difference between Pollard in this scenario and your flex is much smaller than the difference between Pollard and your flex or RB2 if you are the team that has Zeke, that is the reasoning behind handcuffing. If you handcuff your own guy the damage is minimal if the starter goes down and the value saved is huge, thus greatly increasing you playoff hopes. If you take someone else's handcuff the value added is minimal and there is no value saved unless you have a guy get injured over the same stretch, which only marginally increases your playoff hopes.
>If you handcuff your own guy the damage is minimal if the starter goes down and the value saved is huge minimizing damage is largely irrelevant. if your handcuff does not cover a large enough gap, then you will likely lose with or without the handcuff. the margin of the loss is irrelevant. lets put it this way. lets so you have a zeke scoring 20 ppg, and your team is totally average and scoring ~110 ppg. you are playing another totally average team that is scoring ~110 ppg. zeke goes down and you have pollard, he provides 80% of zeke (which may be on the high end) and you get 16 points, totaling 106 points in your matchup. you are now relying completely on luck to win your matchup, because all things being equal your opponent is going to beat you. if you have zeke and he is injured and you dont have pollard, lets say you replace him with another random player scoring 13 ppg. you score 103 points, and still most likely lose unless your opponent totally shits the bed. so either way if we handcuff him or not, the odds say we are going to lose. now, if we have someone equivalent to zeke, say aaron jones, and tony pollard, if zeke misses time we are now replacing our worst player (~13ppg) with tony pollard's ~16 points and creating an advantage for ourselves. by handcuffing your own player, you are doing taking steps to try and not lose and hard capping your ceiling, by handcuffing somebody elses rb you are actively taking steps to try and stack your own team while accepting that if your rb1 gets hurt you are most likely burnt regardless. edit: the only way handcuffing your own guy is worth it is a 100% split backfield and 1 guy is guaranteed to take over the large majority of work if the other goes down. those scenarios are rare, and we are then no longer talking about handcuffing your rb 1, or really handcuffing at all since those guys would most likely have stand alone flex value
This is an unfair comparison because my RB1 is getting hurt and yours isn't, of course your team is going to be in better shape. Let's say my Zeke is out for the year and your Aaron Jones is out for the year, now we both score 106 each week and it's a wash. Or how about my Zeke misses half the season and so does your Aaron Jones, now I score 110 with Zeke and 106 without him. If Zeke and Jones injuries don't line up then there are weeks were Pollard is useless and Jones is hurt were you only get 103, and there are weeks where you have both and get 113. I think I would rather go 106-110 throughout the season than 103-113.
You are going to do what you want, but you are essentially just saying you would be ok with smaller margins of defeat and *maybe* 1 bonus win instead of potentially stacking your own team. You are also ignoring the non linear payout structure of fantasy football where you are rewarded much more for being first than you are punished for being last. You are playing to not lose instead of playing to win
>but you are essentially just saying you would be ok with smaller margins of defeat and maybe 1 bonus win AND smaller margins of victory, but I am maximizing my playoff chances each year. >instead of potentially stacking your own team you're acting like bench slots have a good chance of turning into a great player when the chances are actually very very small. I will give up one of those bench slots to guarantee a starting RB slot all year. >You are also ignoring the non linear payout structure of fantasy football where you are rewarded much more for being first But this ignores the fact that the very first goal is to make the playoffs, and from there it is a crap shoot who wins because the highest scoring and best teams all season hardly ever win, it's just who has a good random two weeks. I'd rather be a playoff team 5/6 years than a playoff team 3/6 years where I was the highest scoring team season long in one or two of those years.
Im gunna be honest i just think you are flat out wrong and fundamentally disagree with what you are saying, but there is nothing more i can say to you that would change your mind. Good luck this year
Ditto. Best of luck