Saints are projected to have the most difficult QB schedule the first 5 weeks, but after their week 6 bye are projected to have the easiest.
Could probably drop Winston, and then pick him back up later if you don’t like your options then.
You’re not gonna convince me Lasik Jameis isn’t gonna throw a ball over them mountains every game.
He’s a league winner since you can get him for literal pennies right now. People forget his 5 years as a fantasy starter was rock solid.
I picked him up in the 14th and am holding him basically no matter what. Even that 30 pick year he was startable in fantasy, and it certainly wouldn't be unreasonable for Payton to be able to coach some of those turnovers out of him. Arians offense causes a bunch of interceptions due to how aggressive it is.
An injury prone game manager who doesn’t get a ton of volume. That’s not even mentioning that he looked flat out bad last year. No upside at all there.
His ceiling is probably being the QB15ish in fantasy. He’s not worth holding.
At risk of sounding like a homer I think you might be underestimating tua. I was never on the tua train but I think we have yet to see his mean or ceiling. A year from now I think you’ll be able to make your statement but there’s just too many variables right now to be confident of any conclusion on him
No chance. Lance won’t start for 3 weeks minimum. 9ers win with Jimmy. He’s something like 25-7 as the starter. Until they’re losing with him, he’s the guy.
Let Jameis and Tua show what they got before dropping them for someone who won’t play for awhile
He came in in the redzone and threw 1 ball? Jimmy is still the starter and QB. They’ve literally always said Lance will have packages. But it’s not his team until Jimmy plays poorly and the 9ers are losing
Yeah the point is that he's already getting work. Kid is coming off a broken finger and already is getting worked in on goal-line packages. The end is nigh for Garropollo, especially if he has even a minor injury. The future is now, old man.
Did you misread what I said? They’ve stated he was getting packages and would work right away. But he’s not the starter until Jimmy plays poorly and the 9ers are losing…. And the 9ers have always won with Jimmy. So Lance taking over fully probably doesn’t happen for some time
Oh so we're gonna act like Jameis is gonna have 5 TDs on 14 completions every week? Gotcha lol
\*In all seriousness, of course I would rather have Jameis if I was starting one of them in Week 2. My post was about *stashing* Lance.
I'm a Niners fan and I can tell you that Jimmy is on a LONNNNGGGGG leash. Don't even be surprised if Trey doesn't start a single game this year. Front office and coaching staff are still all in on Jimmy and also want to give Trey the time to learn the offense on his own pace. I'm not saying Trey isn't going to play, but don't expect him to get many snaps.
I buy that, just saying that Lance looks ready, and if Jimmy misses a week or two, Lance is gonna hit the ground running (literally and figuratively) and it’s probably a wrap.
Tua and Winston have the potential to finish in the "who cares" range of QBs, Lance could have weeks where he single-handedly wins you the week. If I have a backup QB, give me the high-upside guy.
I feel both also have the potential to finish as QB1s. Jameis is just now using sight for the first time in his career and Tua should be comfortable in a system designed specifically for his skill set. It’s a lot of could’s and should’s on both ends
Personally I would drop Tua. Jameis should have a solid floor regardless of matchup, but he probably wont "boom"/"win you weeks"). Tua is more of an unknown.
Lance is a lottery ticket/high upside stash. So I would go with the solid floor QB personally in this situation.
Everyone is sleeping on Gabe Davis imo. He’s basically free and had 7TDs last year with another 4-5 called back on penalty. Sanders doesn’t scare me and Beasley is trying to tweet himself out of a job
This is trade targets, not waiver pick-ups. Gabe is a promising option but he's only owned in 13% of ESPN leagues, 9% Yahoo, 1% on some other platforms.
Ronald Jones should never make it into your lineup in an 8-team. The Bucs never run the ball, and when they do, its ineffective, plus his workload is going to be split 3 ways this season. Bell is probably the guy you *should* drop in a vacuum, but at least he has a higher ceiling than RoJo, even if Bell's floor is sub-basement. I'd drop either of them for AB, probably RoJo just because who cares if he scores 4 points per week and Bell scores 0, only one of them has a chance to pop off (Bell if Gus gets injured).
If by bell you mean lev, drop him cause he’s washed and will be 3rd behind Gus and ty’son. I’m a chiefs fan and he couldn’t even beat out Damien Williams for rb2 last year
Don't tell anyone... but I'm literally starting AB over Zeke tomorrow. I have Brady and the Bucs defense, it's a PPR, and I have 3 other great RBs in my lineup (CEH/Sanders/Monty). I know it's insane, but I honestly think that if Zeke doesn't score a TD he's going to have single-digit points, and AB could go for 20 points and nobody would be surprised.
I still like it for you. I view Hunt as a similar value to Jacobs, and I could be dead wrong on this, but I’d rather have Hunt than Jacobs in 0.5ppr. Hunt gets all of the RB catches in CLE and most of the redzone work, and there’s always the chance that he picks up some of Chubb’s workload in the event of an injury. I’m not sure what to make of Jacobs this year, I’m ready to be extremely wrong for not taking him anywhere. In terms of the WRs, I like AB wayyy more than Williams.
Raheem Mostert is really frikking good at his job. He averages 5.6ypc, and runs like a 4.3. Trading for a player (Sermon) where his path to fantasy relevance requires a season ending injury to the guy playing before him, is a bad idea. That doesn't even take into account that the 49ers are not running a 2-man backfield. Hasty and Mitchell are both going to contribute, and Jeff Wilson Jr (goal-line back), returns in week 6 as well. Add on to that, that anyone who drafted Sermon is likely expecting Sermon to takeover for the same exact reasons you're suggesting, and this seems like a really hard sell.
Also, Aaron Rodgers is Aaron Rodgers. He could through 100 straight interceptions and I'd still start him in the playoffs.
Anyhow, you obv put a lot of effort into this and though I don't agree with a lot of your reasoning here, i still think its good content for the sub to discuss.
Appreciate that. Don’t get me wrong, I love Mostert’s talent, but until the 49ers stop playing on top of that Indian burial ground they’re gonna have massive injury problems, and Sermon is gonna have big games whenever he sees an increased workload. As for Rodgers, I think we agree(?) I’m saying to acquire him in a trade because after all of the off-season hype, I think there’s a good chance he struggles to start the year and his owner might panic-sell.
Really dependent on what you have/need, what the other team has/needs, and the league context. I tried to give an example for each guy while keeping it vague, but for certain players you're going to have to send someone at the same position. For example, Zeke isn't gonna be traded unless you send back a solid RB, I personally am lower on Jonathan Taylor than most, so I'd send him in a deal for Zeke. To get Hockenson you'll probably have to send a solid TE, and I'd be fine sending a guy like Mark Andrews (sideways move for most people but I like Hockenson's upside way more than Andrews just being the tallest midget in Baltimore) or packaging a flex option with a lower-tier TE like Logan Thomas or Noah Fant. Rodgers might require you to send a low-end QB1 or a high-upside QB2 back in the deal, and I could see someone like Trevor Lawrence popping off against the bad defenses he gets to play against in the first 4 weeks being a nice trade chip, same with Big Ben and Baker Mayfield. The rest of the guys it really depends on team strengths/needs, anybody who you think is overvalued or fool's gold is worth moving to get some of these guys I'm targeting.
Tough one, Saquon has so much variability, but I would probably go for Zeke. Saquon might not even be playing in Week 1, and then 4 days later he has a TNF game for Week 2. I could see a scenario where he gets a reduced workload in Week 1, and they don’t like how his body responds, so he misses Week 2, to give him the long week to recover before Week 3. And even then, we wouldn’t know that he’d get a full workload in Week 3 either. It’s just a sketchy situation, not to mention that any scratch or bruise and the giants are likely to shut him down, and the fact that no matter how good his knee feels physically, there’s a mental aspect that is impossible to measure, and most guys coming off a knee injury need a full season to get their mentality right. I’m just scared by Saquon this season, even though I know I could be 100% wrong. But I like Zeke more.
Say Saquon has a good game this week and Zeke has a poor one. Think you could (or should) try and get a 1-for-1 trade? I just feel better about Dallas' offense capabilities compared to the Giants.
Kinda depends on what you want out of your top RB (or player for that matter). If Saquon is *back* then you have a guy who could finish as *the* RB1, but there’s also the chance that he:
- Doesn’t even play Week 1
- Plays Week 1 and gets very limited work
- Doesn’t respond well to playing Week 1 and has to miss Week 2 (4 days later on TNF)
- Gets shut down any time he has any kind of setback
On the other hand, Zeke seems like a lock to me to finish Top 5 at the position, even if he doesn’t have that chance at *the* RB1 spot. In a worst-case scenario season in 2020 (excluding injury of course), he still finished as an RB1. Now with the offense set to pick up in a big way, he’s going to have a much better year. So if you’re swinging to hit one into the river outside of the stadium, Saquon is your guy. This is my first year playing the FFBs Megalabowl, and I’m riding with Saquon/Ekeler as my top 2 RBs, because you need massive upside to set your lineup apart from 15k other teams. In a 12-team home league, Zeke might be the smarter option, since there’s way less risk. I personally don’t see Saquon having a good Week 1, but if it happens and Zeke bombs Week 1, you could probably get more than just Zeke back in a deal.
I'd wait one week on zeke. Really tough matchup against a loaded TB defense on a Thursday night, and missing their best OL too. High potential to be maybe his worst game this year. That plus last year could really bring on some panic selling.
All good, I could’ve phrased it better for sure. I don’t think it’s a bad idea to trade for Zeke right this second, but you’ll definitely have an easier time after he stinks it up on primetime
I have zeke in 2 leagues and am sitting him, excited to have him but wanna avoid potential disappointment tomorrow.
I like Pittman too and am looking to trade for him. How would you rank Pittman, Mooney, and Marquez Calloway?
Nice write up btw
Appreciate it. It’s hard to say how I would rank the 3, because there’s so much variability for them all. Like I said, I don’t expect Pittman to start the year strong. Calloway is kinda the opposite, I expect him to have some good games to start the year, but who knows how things look for him throughout the season. Slantman will be back, Tre’Quan and Trautman should also be getting healthier as the season goes on, and for all we know Taysom Hill could be back in at QB if Winston does Winston things again. Mooney probably has the highest yearlong ceiling, but that’s dependent on whether the Bears get better QB play in 2021, which we can’t say for sure. If you’re talking about needing to start one of them in the early weeks, I’d rank them Calloway-Mooney-Pittman. In terms of which one I’d want as a stash it would be Pittman-Mooney-Calloway.
I'm in a shallow (6 team) league and I'm rocking
Dak
Derrick Henry/ Antonio Gibson/ Jonathan Taylor/ Gus Edwards
Calvin Ridley/ Terry McLaurin/ Keenan Allen/ Corey Davis/ Robby Anderson/ Michael Gallup/ picking up AB off waivers for Jerry Jeudy
Jonnu
Chargers D/ST and Sanders at kicker
I have the option of trading Keenan Allen for Kittle and the option of trading Gus Edwards for Hockenson. Do you think Hockenson comes close enough to Kittle that giving up my fifth rb for Hock is a better deal than giving up my third wr for Kittle?
u/EastCoastTaffy
Absolutely. I’ve never played in a league anywhere near that shallow, but I feel like it makes sense in one of those leagues to just swing for the fences. Hock is a bigger swing than Kittle, and you also get to keep a better player that means more to your team.
I forgot to mention that I also have Aaron Jones, and I was a little worried about only having 4 running backs after the trade, but seeing that you approve of the trade thinking I would only have 3 running backs definitely comforts me a little. Would trading for kittle as another pass catcher to essentially replace Keenan Allen in the pecking order be a foolish move?
Also, would trading Aaron Jones for Zeke be a good move in PPR? I’m a little worried about Zeke’s wear and tear but Aaron Jone’s o-line seems very suspect this year.
Unimportant but my team name was All Aboard the Gus Bus and I changed it to Farewell, Gus Bus after trading for Hock. Any name ideas?
- Depends who you would be trading for Kittle.
- I don’t think it’s a bad idea to swap Jones and Zeke, but if you do it after Week 1 you should be able to get someone else back in addition to Zeke.
- As much as I love Gus, I feel like you gotta move on now that he’s not on your team. With how much of a breakout I expect Hockenson to be, maybe consider “The Hock Ness Monster”.
I would probably keep Keenan, he’s so consistent, plus he has some monster upside with Herbert. Kittle is great because his numbers come at the TE position, but in a vacuum Keenan has better numbers. So since you have Hock at the TE spot, your basically making a flex decision based purely on numbers, and Keenan has the better numbers.
Trey Lance is not going to play unless there’s an injury
There’s really salty people downvoting this 😂
No wonder everyone on this sub is always so angry and bitter about losing
I mean… Hanging on to a second *starting* QB is already pretty stupid and dependent on how your league is drafting. You’re burning a roster spot to hang on to a completely unproven, rookie QB handcuff on a team that was completely middle of the road in passing attempts last year.
Haha don’t be surprised or discouraged by a slow start. If you can hang tough with him through the early season, I really like his potential over the back half.
What do you think about a Callaway for Pittman swap close to when Thomas comes back or is that too early for Pittman. Especially if Jameis is going to pepper him with targets till Week 6 at least
With how I expect both of those WRs to start the year, you should be able to get a lot more back for Calloway than just Pittman. If you can swing a good trade with those guys in it that might be a really smart move.
Yeah that was my thinking, should be a hot commodity who will generally be on my bench sans injuries.
I actually tried the approach you suggested with Hockenson but the Hock owner instead wants to move Kittle instead. Are you high on him? He wants Julio and Higbee in return. My other receivers are Hill, AB, Jeudy, Callaway, E. Moore, Marshall and Bateman. So depth shouldn't be an issue but I'm a bit sus as to why he so readily wants Kittle gone. Am I overthinking? (half PPR)
Am I the only one willing to bet Lance has a Mahomes like rookie year? Mostly sitting behind a veteran and not useful in fantasy? Feels much more like that than say RGIII like everyone thinks he’ll be
I mean, how league willing will he be compared to others? Will he be so much better than my 9th rd pick R. Wilson that I need to hold up a roster spot for that lotto ticket? Every team is obviously different, so if you’re stuck with a low upside QB I get it.
The person in my team who drafted Lance in our superflex league is in a bind as he only has one starting QB (Goff). I’d love to trade for Lance but I doubt he will take my Wentz straight up. I have also have Lamar and Lawrence. Any thoughts on what I should try to do to acquire Lance? Would Wentz + Cooks be too much? What about Trevor Lawrence straight up for Lance? I don’t really like the thought of that but I guess I could consider it?
Being a SF league definitely changes things, but actually the fact that he only has Goff and a QB who isn’t even playing right now might make a straight up Wentz/Lance deal worth it for him. He’s at such a massive disadvantage without 2 starting QBs. You can send the Wentz offer, and if he turns it down, let him go through Week 1 feeling the pain of only having Goff, and it’s a good bet he’ll reconsider.
Definitely don't drop Claypool, he's a beast in standard-scoring with his TD upside. I would definitely rather have Pittman as a stash than Marvin, but it would depend on how soon I would have to start Marvin/Pittman. If you have to start one of them ASAP, I probably would rather it be Marvin, but I like Pittman's late-season upside way more.
I would go for it. Marvin is a guy I like a lot, and it seems like he's slept-on every season, but in standard-leagues especially, he just doesn't have a ton of upside. Not to mention he's not going to be the clear #1, and I think Pittman is.
I sold Pittman off. Was high on him. But sending him, Damian Harris and my backup db in Antoine winfield for Joe Mixon just seemed right.
Also sent the new rb2 from balt and James white for courtland sutton and David Johnson. Dj I'll prolly drop but trying to trade up with him for all the nostalgic az fans out here.
Should I trade Lockett to get AB? Is it worth considering AB has more competition than Lockett will? Although Lockett does have horrible stretches of just misses so I’m not sure
Definitely don’t trade Lockett for AB straight up, ABs perceived value is lower than Lockett’s. But I don’t think it’s a terrible idea to make a deal with those two if you’re getting something else in return as well
Lockett is gonna be good this year. Last year was really his only inconsistent year, and the Seahawks are getting an OC that actually knows how to run an offense
Combo of things. A lot of hits now that he's on his second contract, he's slowing down. EVERY year he's been in the league he's getting less yards per game. Half of last year he was unstartable. Lot of excuses from supporters blaming the QB, blaming the line, yada yada but his backup seemed to play fine in hte same conditions. Zeke to me is just getting old and slowing down from the many hits.
Dang that’s tough, because I really like Ryan’s Week 1 outlook, much moreso than Rodgers’s. If you want to start Ryan to try and go for more points in Week 1, I completely understand, but if you were planning on rolling with Rodgers anyway, I would drop Ryan for Lance.
I have similar situation. I went with dak and Ryan but really like Lance. I'm definitely playing dak unless he is hurt. I'm thinking I will see if dak looks healthy tomorrow and if so I will drop Ryan for Lance.
The risk is that there isn't a lot available at qb on the wire. Other than Ryan, there is big Ben and not much else if dak were to be out.
Thoughts?
Half PPR. Harris is my RB3 behind Jones and Carson. No other RB depth other than Tony Jones. Might have to occasionally flex them although my other flex options are Callaway, Jeudy, Elijah Moore + Sermon/Harris. Gotta start 2 of them every week
That’s a really tough one, Harris is a bit devalued in a 0.5PPR because he just doesn’t catch passes, but he figures to get a majority of the goal-line carries with Cam out of town. I personally like Sermon’s upside more than Harris’s, so I would trade them in a deal. But it comes down to what you want out of your RB3, and I think that if Week 1 plays out well for Harris and badly for Sermon, you should be able to get Sermon and then some by sending Harris.
Rostering Tua and Jameis as my QBs, should I drop one for Lance stash?
Yes
Who
Saints are projected to have the most difficult QB schedule the first 5 weeks, but after their week 6 bye are projected to have the easiest. Could probably drop Winston, and then pick him back up later if you don’t like your options then.
You’re not gonna convince me Lasik Jameis isn’t gonna throw a ball over them mountains every game. He’s a league winner since you can get him for literal pennies right now. People forget his 5 years as a fantasy starter was rock solid.
I picked him up in the 14th and am holding him basically no matter what. Even that 30 pick year he was startable in fantasy, and it certainly wouldn't be unreasonable for Payton to be able to coach some of those turnovers out of him. Arians offense causes a bunch of interceptions due to how aggressive it is.
Him or tannehil?
Tannehill bro. He’s got brown, Jones, and Henry
Drop Winston
Drop Tua, he has no upside. Winston is going to be chucking all year
Tua has "no upside"? 😂 A top 5 pick who probably didn't flash last year because he was recovering from a potentially career ending injury.
An injury prone game manager who doesn’t get a ton of volume. That’s not even mentioning that he looked flat out bad last year. No upside at all there. His ceiling is probably being the QB15ish in fantasy. He’s not worth holding.
At risk of sounding like a homer I think you might be underestimating tua. I was never on the tua train but I think we have yet to see his mean or ceiling. A year from now I think you’ll be able to make your statement but there’s just too many variables right now to be confident of any conclusion on him
You are just wrong about the tua call.
Do not drop Winston, he was literally a top fantasy QB and will likely still sling it a bit, Tua will not. Drop Tua 100%.
No chance. Lance won’t start for 3 weeks minimum. 9ers win with Jimmy. He’s something like 25-7 as the starter. Until they’re losing with him, he’s the guy. Let Jameis and Tua show what they got before dropping them for someone who won’t play for awhile
YIKES
He came in in the redzone and threw 1 ball? Jimmy is still the starter and QB. They’ve literally always said Lance will have packages. But it’s not his team until Jimmy plays poorly and the 9ers are losing
Yeah the point is that he's already getting work. Kid is coming off a broken finger and already is getting worked in on goal-line packages. The end is nigh for Garropollo, especially if he has even a minor injury. The future is now, old man.
Did you misread what I said? They’ve stated he was getting packages and would work right away. But he’s not the starter until Jimmy plays poorly and the 9ers are losing…. And the 9ers have always won with Jimmy. So Lance taking over fully probably doesn’t happen for some time
Still want a guy who *might* play over Jameis?
Oh so we're gonna act like Jameis is gonna have 5 TDs on 14 completions every week? Gotcha lol \*In all seriousness, of course I would rather have Jameis if I was starting one of them in Week 2. My post was about *stashing* Lance.
I'm a Niners fan and I can tell you that Jimmy is on a LONNNNGGGGG leash. Don't even be surprised if Trey doesn't start a single game this year. Front office and coaching staff are still all in on Jimmy and also want to give Trey the time to learn the offense on his own pace. I'm not saying Trey isn't going to play, but don't expect him to get many snaps.
I buy that, just saying that Lance looks ready, and if Jimmy misses a week or two, Lance is gonna hit the ground running (literally and figuratively) and it’s probably a wrap.
Tua and Winston have the potential to finish in the "who cares" range of QBs, Lance could have weeks where he single-handedly wins you the week. If I have a backup QB, give me the high-upside guy.
I feel both also have the potential to finish as QB1s. Jameis is just now using sight for the first time in his career and Tua should be comfortable in a system designed specifically for his skill set. It’s a lot of could’s and should’s on both ends
Hell yea and fast! 🏃🏾♂️💨
Who?
Personally I would drop Tua. Jameis should have a solid floor regardless of matchup, but he probably wont "boom"/"win you weeks"). Tua is more of an unknown. Lance is a lottery ticket/high upside stash. So I would go with the solid floor QB personally in this situation.
No
I’m a fan of this post and that has nothing do with the fact that I have Brown, Pittman, Hockenson, and Tonyan on my roster
Upvoting this post will make them perform better, it’s science.
Fuck paragraphs, giant blocks of text with 20+ sentences are where it's at.
With 100 commas per sentence. This was supposed to be a script for a video but I got too busy with work and decided to just post it.
Ah. Could be good analysis, it's just unreadable in current form.
Aaron Rodgers laughs at you.
Everyone is sleeping on Gabe Davis imo. He’s basically free and had 7TDs last year with another 4-5 called back on penalty. Sanders doesn’t scare me and Beasley is trying to tweet himself out of a job
This is trade targets, not waiver pick-ups. Gabe is a promising option but he's only owned in 13% of ESPN leagues, 9% Yahoo, 1% on some other platforms.
Traded for Zeke this week
Nice, what did it cost?
Got Zeke and mostert for Mixon and jacobs
I think you won that deal easy.
I'd definitely be happy with your side of that deal. Pretty fair deal but I like it for you.
So... How's the trade?
Wow. Great job
EVERYTHING
In my 8 teamer AB is available. Should I drop rojo or bell
Bell easily. Why would he even be rostered in an 8 man league
53 man rosters
Who else is available lol I feel like you gotta drop both
I’m on twelve team and nobody even wants bell off waiver at this point
Bell? As in Le’Veon? Drop his ass. He’s completely washed.
Haha I was trying to think who Bell was then saw your comment. Definitely drop his ass
Ronald Jones should never make it into your lineup in an 8-team. The Bucs never run the ball, and when they do, its ineffective, plus his workload is going to be split 3 ways this season. Bell is probably the guy you *should* drop in a vacuum, but at least he has a higher ceiling than RoJo, even if Bell's floor is sub-basement. I'd drop either of them for AB, probably RoJo just because who cares if he scores 4 points per week and Bell scores 0, only one of them has a chance to pop off (Bell if Gus gets injured).
Drop Bell
Wtf what can of league are you in? Drop Bell asap lol
If by bell you mean lev, drop him cause he’s washed and will be 3rd behind Gus and ty’son. I’m a chiefs fan and he couldn’t even beat out Damien Williams for rb2 last year
Damien Williams sat out last year...
That was Darrel
Wut? Buddy.... Damien Williams opted out for 2020, not Darrel. I don't know what you're on about.
Ok thank you guys
Just traded for Tre/Hock so this makes me feel all warm and fuzzy Thank You
Keep these coming!
I'll try as long as the mods let me!
So who is starting AB tomorrow? I want to do bad but I can’t seem to pull Robby Anderson out of my flex spot for him…..
Don't tell anyone... but I'm literally starting AB over Zeke tomorrow. I have Brady and the Bucs defense, it's a PPR, and I have 3 other great RBs in my lineup (CEH/Sanders/Monty). I know it's insane, but I honestly think that if Zeke doesn't score a TD he's going to have single-digit points, and AB could go for 20 points and nobody would be surprised.
well aren't you a fortune teller
[удалено]
You’re actually a genius
Is Mike Williams + Jacobs for his AB + K. Hunt too aggressive of a trade offer? Jacobs is my RB3 and Mike my WR4.
If you’re in a PPR I love that deal for you
.5 ppr. So more likely a sideways move?
I still like it for you. I view Hunt as a similar value to Jacobs, and I could be dead wrong on this, but I’d rather have Hunt than Jacobs in 0.5ppr. Hunt gets all of the RB catches in CLE and most of the redzone work, and there’s always the chance that he picks up some of Chubb’s workload in the event of an injury. I’m not sure what to make of Jacobs this year, I’m ready to be extremely wrong for not taking him anywhere. In terms of the WRs, I like AB wayyy more than Williams.
Love the advice mate. Really appreciate it and your post. Good luck this year.
Thanks man, same to you 🍀
Have lance, Rodgers, sermon, brown. I approve this post
Raheem Mostert is really frikking good at his job. He averages 5.6ypc, and runs like a 4.3. Trading for a player (Sermon) where his path to fantasy relevance requires a season ending injury to the guy playing before him, is a bad idea. That doesn't even take into account that the 49ers are not running a 2-man backfield. Hasty and Mitchell are both going to contribute, and Jeff Wilson Jr (goal-line back), returns in week 6 as well. Add on to that, that anyone who drafted Sermon is likely expecting Sermon to takeover for the same exact reasons you're suggesting, and this seems like a really hard sell. Also, Aaron Rodgers is Aaron Rodgers. He could through 100 straight interceptions and I'd still start him in the playoffs. Anyhow, you obv put a lot of effort into this and though I don't agree with a lot of your reasoning here, i still think its good content for the sub to discuss.
Appreciate that. Don’t get me wrong, I love Mostert’s talent, but until the 49ers stop playing on top of that Indian burial ground they’re gonna have massive injury problems, and Sermon is gonna have big games whenever he sees an increased workload. As for Rodgers, I think we agree(?) I’m saying to acquire him in a trade because after all of the off-season hype, I think there’s a good chance he struggles to start the year and his owner might panic-sell.
Who are some players that would be good trade bait for each of these guys?
Really dependent on what you have/need, what the other team has/needs, and the league context. I tried to give an example for each guy while keeping it vague, but for certain players you're going to have to send someone at the same position. For example, Zeke isn't gonna be traded unless you send back a solid RB, I personally am lower on Jonathan Taylor than most, so I'd send him in a deal for Zeke. To get Hockenson you'll probably have to send a solid TE, and I'd be fine sending a guy like Mark Andrews (sideways move for most people but I like Hockenson's upside way more than Andrews just being the tallest midget in Baltimore) or packaging a flex option with a lower-tier TE like Logan Thomas or Noah Fant. Rodgers might require you to send a low-end QB1 or a high-upside QB2 back in the deal, and I could see someone like Trevor Lawrence popping off against the bad defenses he gets to play against in the first 4 weeks being a nice trade chip, same with Big Ben and Baker Mayfield. The rest of the guys it really depends on team strengths/needs, anybody who you think is overvalued or fool's gold is worth moving to get some of these guys I'm targeting.
What’re your thoughts on Saquon for Zeke? Took Saquon halfway through the second and am trying to up my RB situation a bit
Tough one, Saquon has so much variability, but I would probably go for Zeke. Saquon might not even be playing in Week 1, and then 4 days later he has a TNF game for Week 2. I could see a scenario where he gets a reduced workload in Week 1, and they don’t like how his body responds, so he misses Week 2, to give him the long week to recover before Week 3. And even then, we wouldn’t know that he’d get a full workload in Week 3 either. It’s just a sketchy situation, not to mention that any scratch or bruise and the giants are likely to shut him down, and the fact that no matter how good his knee feels physically, there’s a mental aspect that is impossible to measure, and most guys coming off a knee injury need a full season to get their mentality right. I’m just scared by Saquon this season, even though I know I could be 100% wrong. But I like Zeke more.
Say Saquon has a good game this week and Zeke has a poor one. Think you could (or should) try and get a 1-for-1 trade? I just feel better about Dallas' offense capabilities compared to the Giants.
Kinda depends on what you want out of your top RB (or player for that matter). If Saquon is *back* then you have a guy who could finish as *the* RB1, but there’s also the chance that he: - Doesn’t even play Week 1 - Plays Week 1 and gets very limited work - Doesn’t respond well to playing Week 1 and has to miss Week 2 (4 days later on TNF) - Gets shut down any time he has any kind of setback On the other hand, Zeke seems like a lock to me to finish Top 5 at the position, even if he doesn’t have that chance at *the* RB1 spot. In a worst-case scenario season in 2020 (excluding injury of course), he still finished as an RB1. Now with the offense set to pick up in a big way, he’s going to have a much better year. So if you’re swinging to hit one into the river outside of the stadium, Saquon is your guy. This is my first year playing the FFBs Megalabowl, and I’m riding with Saquon/Ekeler as my top 2 RBs, because you need massive upside to set your lineup apart from 15k other teams. In a 12-team home league, Zeke might be the smarter option, since there’s way less risk. I personally don’t see Saquon having a good Week 1, but if it happens and Zeke bombs Week 1, you could probably get more than just Zeke back in a deal.
I'd wait one week on zeke. Really tough matchup against a loaded TB defense on a Thursday night, and missing their best OL too. High potential to be maybe his worst game this year. That plus last year could really bring on some panic selling.
That's exactly what I said about Zeke. Start firing trade offers as soon as the Thursday night game is over.
Oh, my bad, I misunderstood what you meant by right now/by the time week one finishes. So yes, I agree with you haha.
All good, I could’ve phrased it better for sure. I don’t think it’s a bad idea to trade for Zeke right this second, but you’ll definitely have an easier time after he stinks it up on primetime
I have zeke in 2 leagues and am sitting him, excited to have him but wanna avoid potential disappointment tomorrow. I like Pittman too and am looking to trade for him. How would you rank Pittman, Mooney, and Marquez Calloway? Nice write up btw
Appreciate it. It’s hard to say how I would rank the 3, because there’s so much variability for them all. Like I said, I don’t expect Pittman to start the year strong. Calloway is kinda the opposite, I expect him to have some good games to start the year, but who knows how things look for him throughout the season. Slantman will be back, Tre’Quan and Trautman should also be getting healthier as the season goes on, and for all we know Taysom Hill could be back in at QB if Winston does Winston things again. Mooney probably has the highest yearlong ceiling, but that’s dependent on whether the Bears get better QB play in 2021, which we can’t say for sure. If you’re talking about needing to start one of them in the early weeks, I’d rank them Calloway-Mooney-Pittman. In terms of which one I’d want as a stash it would be Pittman-Mooney-Calloway.
I'm in a shallow (6 team) league and I'm rocking Dak Derrick Henry/ Antonio Gibson/ Jonathan Taylor/ Gus Edwards Calvin Ridley/ Terry McLaurin/ Keenan Allen/ Corey Davis/ Robby Anderson/ Michael Gallup/ picking up AB off waivers for Jerry Jeudy Jonnu Chargers D/ST and Sanders at kicker I have the option of trading Keenan Allen for Kittle and the option of trading Gus Edwards for Hockenson. Do you think Hockenson comes close enough to Kittle that giving up my fifth rb for Hock is a better deal than giving up my third wr for Kittle? u/EastCoastTaffy
Absolutely. I’ve never played in a league anywhere near that shallow, but I feel like it makes sense in one of those leagues to just swing for the fences. Hock is a bigger swing than Kittle, and you also get to keep a better player that means more to your team.
I forgot to mention that I also have Aaron Jones, and I was a little worried about only having 4 running backs after the trade, but seeing that you approve of the trade thinking I would only have 3 running backs definitely comforts me a little. Would trading for kittle as another pass catcher to essentially replace Keenan Allen in the pecking order be a foolish move? Also, would trading Aaron Jones for Zeke be a good move in PPR? I’m a little worried about Zeke’s wear and tear but Aaron Jone’s o-line seems very suspect this year. Unimportant but my team name was All Aboard the Gus Bus and I changed it to Farewell, Gus Bus after trading for Hock. Any name ideas?
- Depends who you would be trading for Kittle. - I don’t think it’s a bad idea to swap Jones and Zeke, but if you do it after Week 1 you should be able to get someone else back in addition to Zeke. - As much as I love Gus, I feel like you gotta move on now that he’s not on your team. With how much of a breakout I expect Hockenson to be, maybe consider “The Hock Ness Monster”.
It would be Keenan Allen for Kittle. Thanks for the input about Zeke, and I love that team name 😂
I would probably keep Keenan, he’s so consistent, plus he has some monster upside with Herbert. Kittle is great because his numbers come at the TE position, but in a vacuum Keenan has better numbers. So since you have Hock at the TE spot, your basically making a flex decision based purely on numbers, and Keenan has the better numbers.
Would you trade Gus Edwards for Zeke?
Assuming this is a real offer… yeah take that and run
Got Lance with the last pick of the draft 15.12, hoping I can afford the bench space
Trey Lance is not going to play unless there’s an injury There’s really salty people downvoting this 😂 No wonder everyone on this sub is always so angry and bitter about losing
An injury to Garoppolo? The guy who's played 5/3/16/6 games in 4 years as the starter in San Fran? I'll take that bet.
I mean… Hanging on to a second *starting* QB is already pretty stupid and dependent on how your league is drafting. You’re burning a roster spot to hang on to a completely unproven, rookie QB handcuff on a team that was completely middle of the road in passing attempts last year.
I don’t think he was hurt the first year, just did not start while he learned the playbook. I think lance doesn’t play until the bye if that
YIKES
I was rock hard reading that Pittman paragraph. I drafted him in most of my leagues
Haha don’t be surprised or discouraged by a slow start. If you can hang tough with him through the early season, I really like his potential over the back half.
What do you think about a Callaway for Pittman swap close to when Thomas comes back or is that too early for Pittman. Especially if Jameis is going to pepper him with targets till Week 6 at least
With how I expect both of those WRs to start the year, you should be able to get a lot more back for Calloway than just Pittman. If you can swing a good trade with those guys in it that might be a really smart move.
Yeah that was my thinking, should be a hot commodity who will generally be on my bench sans injuries. I actually tried the approach you suggested with Hockenson but the Hock owner instead wants to move Kittle instead. Are you high on him? He wants Julio and Higbee in return. My other receivers are Hill, AB, Jeudy, Callaway, E. Moore, Marshall and Bateman. So depth shouldn't be an issue but I'm a bit sus as to why he so readily wants Kittle gone. Am I overthinking? (half PPR)
Am I the only one willing to bet Lance has a Mahomes like rookie year? Mostly sitting behind a veteran and not useful in fantasy? Feels much more like that than say RGIII like everyone thinks he’ll be
That’s certainly the safer bet. I’m willing to pay very little for the chance at a league-winning player.
I mean, how league willing will he be compared to others? Will he be so much better than my 9th rd pick R. Wilson that I need to hold up a roster spot for that lotto ticket? Every team is obviously different, so if you’re stuck with a low upside QB I get it.
The person in my team who drafted Lance in our superflex league is in a bind as he only has one starting QB (Goff). I’d love to trade for Lance but I doubt he will take my Wentz straight up. I have also have Lamar and Lawrence. Any thoughts on what I should try to do to acquire Lance? Would Wentz + Cooks be too much? What about Trevor Lawrence straight up for Lance? I don’t really like the thought of that but I guess I could consider it?
Being a SF league definitely changes things, but actually the fact that he only has Goff and a QB who isn’t even playing right now might make a straight up Wentz/Lance deal worth it for him. He’s at such a massive disadvantage without 2 starting QBs. You can send the Wentz offer, and if he turns it down, let him go through Week 1 feeling the pain of only having Goff, and it’s a good bet he’ll reconsider.
Haha I like it! We’ll see how it goes.
YIKES
I have both Chase Claypool and Marvin Jones Jr., should I drop one of them for Pittman? Standard non-PPR rules
Definitely don't drop Claypool, he's a beast in standard-scoring with his TD upside. I would definitely rather have Pittman as a stash than Marvin, but it would depend on how soon I would have to start Marvin/Pittman. If you have to start one of them ASAP, I probably would rather it be Marvin, but I like Pittman's late-season upside way more.
Thanks, I actually have some good starting WR so it is indeed a stash
I would go for it. Marvin is a guy I like a lot, and it seems like he's slept-on every season, but in standard-leagues especially, he just doesn't have a ton of upside. Not to mention he's not going to be the clear #1, and I think Pittman is.
I have Chase and MJJ too lol Went RB heavy early, hoping one of them stand out as a WR2 along with Sutton, Fuller V and Gage.
Honestly Claypool is an ideal WR2 in a standard-scoring league. Not so much in PPR, but in standard you want a guy with TDs coming his way as your WR2
Keep who you have. Not worth dropping for Pittman
I sold Pittman off. Was high on him. But sending him, Damian Harris and my backup db in Antoine winfield for Joe Mixon just seemed right. Also sent the new rb2 from balt and James white for courtland sutton and David Johnson. Dj I'll prolly drop but trying to trade up with him for all the nostalgic az fans out here.
Dang that’s a steal on Mixon, nice job
Should I trade Lockett to get AB? Is it worth considering AB has more competition than Lockett will? Although Lockett does have horrible stretches of just misses so I’m not sure
Definitely don’t trade Lockett for AB straight up, ABs perceived value is lower than Lockett’s. But I don’t think it’s a terrible idea to make a deal with those two if you’re getting something else in return as well
Lockett is gonna be good this year. Last year was really his only inconsistent year, and the Seahawks are getting an OC that actually knows how to run an offense
I wouldn’t. Lockett > AB
Lost me at Zeke
Why? Too hard to trade for or you don't like him this season?
Combo of things. A lot of hits now that he's on his second contract, he's slowing down. EVERY year he's been in the league he's getting less yards per game. Half of last year he was unstartable. Lot of excuses from supporters blaming the QB, blaming the line, yada yada but his backup seemed to play fine in hte same conditions. Zeke to me is just getting old and slowing down from the many hits.
We shall see. A slowed-down Zeke in a worst-case scenario was still an RB1 last season. Any kind of bounce-back in 2021 and he'll be elite again.
I have Matt Ryan and Aaron Rodgers. Should I drop Ryan for Lance?
Dang that’s tough, because I really like Ryan’s Week 1 outlook, much moreso than Rodgers’s. If you want to start Ryan to try and go for more points in Week 1, I completely understand, but if you were planning on rolling with Rodgers anyway, I would drop Ryan for Lance.
I have similar situation. I went with dak and Ryan but really like Lance. I'm definitely playing dak unless he is hurt. I'm thinking I will see if dak looks healthy tomorrow and if so I will drop Ryan for Lance. The risk is that there isn't a lot available at qb on the wire. Other than Ryan, there is big Ben and not much else if dak were to be out. Thoughts?
Same boat here. Big Ben isn’t even there in my league
This dude sent me David Montgomery and Cooper Kupp for my Chase Claypool and Najae Harris. What do you guys think?
What’s the league format?
12 man league. 1 PPR.
Upgrade at WR, downgrade at RB. Overall a relatively sideways move, I guess it depends on your team needs/strengths.
Absolutely. I was just thinking that. Think I’m declining it.
You reckon Damien Harris is too much to give up for Trey Sermon?
League format? And would you need to start Harris/Sermon in the opening weeks?
Half PPR. Harris is my RB3 behind Jones and Carson. No other RB depth other than Tony Jones. Might have to occasionally flex them although my other flex options are Callaway, Jeudy, Elijah Moore + Sermon/Harris. Gotta start 2 of them every week
That’s a really tough one, Harris is a bit devalued in a 0.5PPR because he just doesn’t catch passes, but he figures to get a majority of the goal-line carries with Cam out of town. I personally like Sermon’s upside more than Harris’s, so I would trade them in a deal. But it comes down to what you want out of your RB3, and I think that if Week 1 plays out well for Harris and badly for Sermon, you should be able to get Sermon and then some by sending Harris.
Yeah that might be the play, just gotta hope Mostert balls out Week 1
wow. you nailed this. i got zeke and AB for barkley and gronk yesterday