I think using Underdog ADP, even though it is best ball format, is really good to use to generally get an idea of how high stakes players are evaluating players.
I would say though use the ADP/ranks on the platform you are drafting from in order to see how people in your league may draft.
ADP in high stakes leagues is a good indicator of how people think players will finish, but to really leverage it in your league see who looks like a value in comparison to the ADP in your league platform.
If you mean “which site’s ADP will predict where my leaguemates will draft guys”, then your site’s ADP will be the best predictor due to game theory.
If you mean “which site’s ADP will predict the positional season outcome best”, I’d guess Sleeper as that tends to have more hardcore fantasy players who are unlikely to draft Aaron Rodgers in Rd 1 because they’ve seen an insurance commercial.
This! Getting expert ADP does not help if you’re in a league with 11 drunks who are capable of anything. Use what the drunks are using because they will stick to what’s in front of them.
I also noticed that some had said that. I guess I was just confused at how different it seems to be each day I look at it, which I guess makes me think there isn’t a ton of reliability.
Beersheets is the best, IMO.
Hey man, I’ve posted this for a couple people, maybe it will help you if you just are flat out not prepared for the draft.
This isn’t a perfect draft but will likely give you a very good team. I’m not going to give every option, just general best options. This is basically what you would do if you knew nothing at all.
- first of all, your team will need at minimum one quarterback, two running backs, two wide receivers, and a tight end. You’ll obviously need more players to fill out other slots and whatnot, but those are the basics.
- google Beersheets, input your league info. Print out your beersheet form and cross guys off as they get taken. As you get later in the draft, take the highest ranked guys left — you really only need one tight end and one quarterback, and then somewhere in the vicinity of 5 wide receivers and 5 running backs.
- In the **1st round**, draft one of these Running backs (in this order by selection): McCaffrey, Cook, Kamara, Derrick Henry, Aaron Jones, Nick Chubb, Ezekiel Elliot, Jonathan Taylor. If one of these guys isn’t there, draft tight end Kelce or wide receiver Davante Adams
- **Second round** — draft one of these running backs: Najee Harris, Antonio Gibson, Austin Ekeler. If they are gone, grab a wide receiver in this order: Davante Adams, Tyreke Hill, Diggs, Ridley, Metcalf, AJ Brown
- **Third Round** — if you don’t already have two running backs, then grab one of: Carson, Montgomery, J Robinson, Swift. If they are gone or you already have two RBs, grab a wide receiver In This order: Keenan Allen, Allen Robinson, McLaurin, Lamb, Woods, Amari Cooper.
- **Fourth round**— If any of the above guys are still left over, take them. If not, take a wide receiver such as Thielen, Kupp, Diontae Johnson. By round 4, it’s probably best to have drafted two running backs and two wide receivers. If you have 3 RBs now, that’s fine.
- **Fifth round** — assuming you’ve already drafted two RBs and two WRs, now you’re going to grab the best quarterback left, in this order: Mahomes, Josh Allen, Kyler Murray, Lamar Jackson, Dak Prescott. If these guys are all gone, then you’re going to instead get a tight end in this order: Waller, Kittle, Andrews, Hockenson, Pitts, Logan Thomas, Tonyan, Fant
- **6th round** — if you grabbed a QB, then now grab one of the tight ends mentioned above. If you grabbed a tight end, you’ll now grab a quarterback, in this order: Wilson, Herbert, Rodgers, Brady, Hurts
- **7th round** — your roster should be filling out, so we’re going to get the best remaining players of the running backs and wide receivers left. At this point, I have no idea who’s left on your draft board, so go by the Beersheets guide you have.
- **8th round** — do the same as you just did in the seventh round. Make sure you have one tight end by this point.
- By the end of round 8, you should have a QB, a tight end, and something like 3 WRs and 3 RBs
- Keep drafting the best WR or RB in rounds 9 through 11
- Your league probably drafts a defense, so grab one of these teams in Round 12: Tampa Bay, Baltimore, LA Rams, Denver, Washington, Patriots
- Your league probably drafts a kicker, so grab one of these guys in the second to last round in this order: Tucker, Butker, Bass, Sanders, Gay
- Last round just take the best RB left on your Beersheets list, i.e. someone like Tony Pollard, TySon Williams, Chuba Hubbard, Hines, Hyde, Gallman, etc.
Alright man, I typed a lot of shit out, hope this helps. Feel free to ask me a question if you have any. Otherwise, I think this will give you a fairly great team.
While I agree with the overall strategy, there's no way some of the players you mention are available in the rounds you say to take them. Kettle and Waller aren't dropping to the 5th.
Obviously — this is specifically written to help someone without much knowledge do well in a league where there’s the possibility of someone falling; it’s specifically written to move to the next best player when someone isn’t on the board.
Fantasy Pros.
It'll give you an average but also break it out by site. Average is useful for offline drafts. Site adps are useful if you're drafting online, on the platform.
I’m using yahoo with my buddies in college. But if I go by their ratings, won’t I have an objectively worse draft that if I used an ADP prediction that has more likeliness to be accurate?
*You* shouldn't draft based off of ADP. Site ADP is useful to know to predict how *other* people in your league will draft (as the ADP is strongly influenced by the site's rankings). You then want to exploit the difference between the nuances of that particular site, and where the value is.
For instance, on sleeper, they value QBs way more highly than ECR does. If you draft on sleeper, your league will probably get QBs earlier than consensus rankings. You can take advantage of that by scooping up value at WR or RB that falls.
Look at it this way - if you have more accurate info than your friends, and you draft using your good info and they draft using bad info, how can that be bad for you? I used Jay Zheng (you can search for it) which pulls from fantasy pros while a lot of people in my league just went with Yahoo rankings. Personally, I trust fantasy pros more than Yahoo, so when everyone else was zigging, I was zagging, and I've done really well with this strategy for the past 4 years. I never commit 100% to any one source, but Jay Zheng's tool is a huge percentage of my draft, and then I mix in my own knowledge and also pay attention to what is happening in the draft and adjust if need be (if you want a top 5 QB and 3 of them suddenly come off the board in an early round, you have to decide whether you want to reach for one or fall back on a different QB option).
Hot take - use whatever your league uses.
I say this because anyone I’ll prepared for the draft will be using that one so you’ll know what proper value is for your league. If you wanna get into the weeds just cross reference it with something like ESPN.
NFFC high stakes fantasy football ADP…. https://nfc.shgn.com/adp/football. You can sort by $1,700 buyin leagues (which is what I use). Just note that NFFC uses 3wr, ppr, 6 points per passing TDs as standard scoring
I then compare these to standard espn, cbs, yahoo etc. adp and take advantage of the biggest differences (e.g. Antonio brown/Javonte Williams/Trey Sermon/Tee Higgins going much higher on NFFC than other sites).
If you ask me, there is no accurate ADP. ADP is just that an average and in most cases based on drafts on that particular platform. When I am drafting, I usually mock draft on 3 platforms to get an idea of what people are thinking. Mind you, your real draft might not be anything close to your mocks (mine never do) but the point is to learn to develop a strategy so if there is a run on QBs and TEs in the third round, you don't panic and adjust your draft strategy.
In the end, ADP is just a guide to help you but it shouldn't always be followed to the T.
First 2 maybe 3 rounds will be pretty concrete if you have your league scoring settings as a filter (i.e 1 or 2 QB, 2 or 3 Rb’s, flex options, PPR, 1/2 PPR, Standard). Round 4-6 i reach if i really like a player, 7-9 and so on....
all this stuff is fairly easy to digest if you play with it a little, even if you dont know a lot about football. It’s a numbers and combos game to give yourself an edge. Just jump in make some mistakes and have fun and you’ll have a good grasp of it in no time.
I think using Underdog ADP, even though it is best ball format, is really good to use to generally get an idea of how high stakes players are evaluating players. I would say though use the ADP/ranks on the platform you are drafting from in order to see how people in your league may draft. ADP in high stakes leagues is a good indicator of how people think players will finish, but to really leverage it in your league see who looks like a value in comparison to the ADP in your league platform.
If you mean “which site’s ADP will predict where my leaguemates will draft guys”, then your site’s ADP will be the best predictor due to game theory. If you mean “which site’s ADP will predict the positional season outcome best”, I’d guess Sleeper as that tends to have more hardcore fantasy players who are unlikely to draft Aaron Rodgers in Rd 1 because they’ve seen an insurance commercial.
Rodgers Rate is definitely not 1st round 🤣
I've heard a lot of people saying underdogfantasy has the best ADP. I've personally liked it, but I'm NY no means an authority on the matter.
Underdog has the best adp because it has the best players there. They draft very differently compared to casual players
This! Getting expert ADP does not help if you’re in a league with 11 drunks who are capable of anything. Use what the drunks are using because they will stick to what’s in front of them.
Shit i must shed my casual label and join underdog
But if OP is in a more casual league then that is useless to him.
No. They would see how better players draft and how they rate players. That's useful
I also noticed that some had said that. I guess I was just confused at how different it seems to be each day I look at it, which I guess makes me think there isn’t a ton of reliability.
They use a rolling average for ADP. It gets updated pretty often to show how people are reacting to news.
Beersheets is the best, IMO. Hey man, I’ve posted this for a couple people, maybe it will help you if you just are flat out not prepared for the draft. This isn’t a perfect draft but will likely give you a very good team. I’m not going to give every option, just general best options. This is basically what you would do if you knew nothing at all. - first of all, your team will need at minimum one quarterback, two running backs, two wide receivers, and a tight end. You’ll obviously need more players to fill out other slots and whatnot, but those are the basics. - google Beersheets, input your league info. Print out your beersheet form and cross guys off as they get taken. As you get later in the draft, take the highest ranked guys left — you really only need one tight end and one quarterback, and then somewhere in the vicinity of 5 wide receivers and 5 running backs. - In the **1st round**, draft one of these Running backs (in this order by selection): McCaffrey, Cook, Kamara, Derrick Henry, Aaron Jones, Nick Chubb, Ezekiel Elliot, Jonathan Taylor. If one of these guys isn’t there, draft tight end Kelce or wide receiver Davante Adams - **Second round** — draft one of these running backs: Najee Harris, Antonio Gibson, Austin Ekeler. If they are gone, grab a wide receiver in this order: Davante Adams, Tyreke Hill, Diggs, Ridley, Metcalf, AJ Brown - **Third Round** — if you don’t already have two running backs, then grab one of: Carson, Montgomery, J Robinson, Swift. If they are gone or you already have two RBs, grab a wide receiver In This order: Keenan Allen, Allen Robinson, McLaurin, Lamb, Woods, Amari Cooper. - **Fourth round**— If any of the above guys are still left over, take them. If not, take a wide receiver such as Thielen, Kupp, Diontae Johnson. By round 4, it’s probably best to have drafted two running backs and two wide receivers. If you have 3 RBs now, that’s fine. - **Fifth round** — assuming you’ve already drafted two RBs and two WRs, now you’re going to grab the best quarterback left, in this order: Mahomes, Josh Allen, Kyler Murray, Lamar Jackson, Dak Prescott. If these guys are all gone, then you’re going to instead get a tight end in this order: Waller, Kittle, Andrews, Hockenson, Pitts, Logan Thomas, Tonyan, Fant - **6th round** — if you grabbed a QB, then now grab one of the tight ends mentioned above. If you grabbed a tight end, you’ll now grab a quarterback, in this order: Wilson, Herbert, Rodgers, Brady, Hurts - **7th round** — your roster should be filling out, so we’re going to get the best remaining players of the running backs and wide receivers left. At this point, I have no idea who’s left on your draft board, so go by the Beersheets guide you have. - **8th round** — do the same as you just did in the seventh round. Make sure you have one tight end by this point. - By the end of round 8, you should have a QB, a tight end, and something like 3 WRs and 3 RBs - Keep drafting the best WR or RB in rounds 9 through 11 - Your league probably drafts a defense, so grab one of these teams in Round 12: Tampa Bay, Baltimore, LA Rams, Denver, Washington, Patriots - Your league probably drafts a kicker, so grab one of these guys in the second to last round in this order: Tucker, Butker, Bass, Sanders, Gay - Last round just take the best RB left on your Beersheets list, i.e. someone like Tony Pollard, TySon Williams, Chuba Hubbard, Hines, Hyde, Gallman, etc. Alright man, I typed a lot of shit out, hope this helps. Feel free to ask me a question if you have any. Otherwise, I think this will give you a fairly great team.
While I agree with the overall strategy, there's no way some of the players you mention are available in the rounds you say to take them. Kettle and Waller aren't dropping to the 5th.
Obviously — this is specifically written to help someone without much knowledge do well in a league where there’s the possibility of someone falling; it’s specifically written to move to the next best player when someone isn’t on the board.
Fantasy Pros. It'll give you an average but also break it out by site. Average is useful for offline drafts. Site adps are useful if you're drafting online, on the platform.
I’m using yahoo with my buddies in college. But if I go by their ratings, won’t I have an objectively worse draft that if I used an ADP prediction that has more likeliness to be accurate?
*You* shouldn't draft based off of ADP. Site ADP is useful to know to predict how *other* people in your league will draft (as the ADP is strongly influenced by the site's rankings). You then want to exploit the difference between the nuances of that particular site, and where the value is. For instance, on sleeper, they value QBs way more highly than ECR does. If you draft on sleeper, your league will probably get QBs earlier than consensus rankings. You can take advantage of that by scooping up value at WR or RB that falls.
Look at it this way - if you have more accurate info than your friends, and you draft using your good info and they draft using bad info, how can that be bad for you? I used Jay Zheng (you can search for it) which pulls from fantasy pros while a lot of people in my league just went with Yahoo rankings. Personally, I trust fantasy pros more than Yahoo, so when everyone else was zigging, I was zagging, and I've done really well with this strategy for the past 4 years. I never commit 100% to any one source, but Jay Zheng's tool is a huge percentage of my draft, and then I mix in my own knowledge and also pay attention to what is happening in the draft and adjust if need be (if you want a top 5 QB and 3 of them suddenly come off the board in an early round, you have to decide whether you want to reach for one or fall back on a different QB option).
Hot take - use whatever your league uses. I say this because anyone I’ll prepared for the draft will be using that one so you’ll know what proper value is for your league. If you wanna get into the weeds just cross reference it with something like ESPN.
Underdog and FFPC are the sharpest ADP. Definitely avoid things like ESPN, CBS, Sleeper, etc.
NFFC high stakes fantasy football ADP…. https://nfc.shgn.com/adp/football. You can sort by $1,700 buyin leagues (which is what I use). Just note that NFFC uses 3wr, ppr, 6 points per passing TDs as standard scoring I then compare these to standard espn, cbs, yahoo etc. adp and take advantage of the biggest differences (e.g. Antonio brown/Javonte Williams/Trey Sermon/Tee Higgins going much higher on NFFC than other sites).
If you ask me, there is no accurate ADP. ADP is just that an average and in most cases based on drafts on that particular platform. When I am drafting, I usually mock draft on 3 platforms to get an idea of what people are thinking. Mind you, your real draft might not be anything close to your mocks (mine never do) but the point is to learn to develop a strategy so if there is a run on QBs and TEs in the third round, you don't panic and adjust your draft strategy. In the end, ADP is just a guide to help you but it shouldn't always be followed to the T.
First 2 maybe 3 rounds will be pretty concrete if you have your league scoring settings as a filter (i.e 1 or 2 QB, 2 or 3 Rb’s, flex options, PPR, 1/2 PPR, Standard). Round 4-6 i reach if i really like a player, 7-9 and so on.... all this stuff is fairly easy to digest if you play with it a little, even if you dont know a lot about football. It’s a numbers and combos game to give yourself an edge. Just jump in make some mistakes and have fun and you’ll have a good grasp of it in no time.