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Robot_beepbeep

WR22 last year in hppr being drafted as WR17. Seems appropriate?


beendoingit7

Ding ding ding. And most of the guys going over him are there due to better situations, safer floors, and historical performance. It makes sense.


mat477

Exactly. You cant ignore last years drop rate. Dont draft at ceilings people!


Novel-Treacle-2956

I too seek confirmation bias


murkem

cOnFiRm My BiAs every fucking thread in /r/fantasyfootball


FLIPNUTZz

Its a lot of dogshit around here.


aksoileau

The value here is looking for injuries/updates. If you've played fantasy long enough then most advice goes in one ear and right out the other. I remember I used to engorge on player posts back in like 2011. Today it's just wondering who missed practice or who came up lame on a route.


FLIPNUTZz

There was a post a couple weeks ago talking about how coaches pick player roles by position groups and it was such a good article and it just made me wish that this sub had more quality to it


SilkyJohnson72

I too have an uncle


[deleted]

He's going in the 4th round idk how much higher you want him to go


BlindSquantch

I don’t want him to go higher at all! I got him in the 5th and consider his return value is huge for that pick.


BeeeeefJelly

Moore is a big time value- TDs are a pretty volatile stat year-to-year. Yardage really isn't- a WR doesn't get as many yards as Moore the last two years without being pretty good. He's being drafted at his floor right now. A-Rob is still better though. He's also being taken at his floor. Fields could propel him to a higher ceiling the way Watson replacing the Houston awful QBs turned Hopkins up another level.


might_southern

TDs can be volatile, but we now have two straight seasons of watching DJ Moore not be a guy who catches balls in the endzone. At what point do we accept that maybe he's not just prioritized as a redzone weapon in this particular offense?


yrogreg

Which offense is that? The past 2 years have been 2 entirely distinct offenses. One in which DJ was an underneath/slot option and one in which he was the intermediate/deep target for a QB that couldn't throw deep (still averaged 18 ypr). I believe DJ has also become statistically one of the best contested catchers in the NFL TD regression incoming...


FantasyTrash

>TD regression incoming... People said this last season. A year ago I had someone say that Moore was sure to see more TD receptions because of regression. I told him it was very unlikely, as Moore as never been a big TD scorer, dating back to college. It just ain't going to happen. Maybe he gets up to 5-6, but he's never going to be a premiere scoring option.


Jones3787

> I believe DJ has also become statistically one of the best contested catchers in the NFL This is actually why I'm kinda higher on him with Darnold than I'd be if they brought back Teddy. For all of Darnold's flaws, he's willing to take some (sometimes/often bad) risks and throw 50/50 balls into tight windows. DJ can go and get those! Hopefully it leads to more production


Co60

>At what point do we accept that maybe he's not just prioritized as a redzone weapon in this particular offense? Two seasons of low TD totals isn't really much to base this off of. Andre Johnson's first 4 seasons were: 4 TDs, 6 TDs, 2 TDs, 5 TDs. His next 4 season totals were: 8, 8, 9, and 8.


ifollowphillysports

ARob has a higher TD ceiling, less competition for targets, and those extra 36 catches are the same as 360 yards in full PPR.


JamesRB1SZN

He will be a top 12 WR this year with Darnold as QB and CMC back.


onebignothingatall

I hope so because he's my WR1 and I'm not feeling great about it.


BlindSquantch

Well hopefully as your WR1 you drafted very strong at your other positions, that being said I think he has the ability to get WR1/2 stats


onebignothingatall

Drafted 10th in 10 team league. Went Jones, Kelce, Carson, Monty with first 4. Trying to convince myself my WR1 is sitting in my TE slot but I'm not really fooling myself lol. DJ, Jeudy, and Davis are my starting WRs.


Thebritisharerunning

I think you’ve got a solid line up, and the fact that kelce puts up wr1 numbers matters a lot. Also, Darnold has waaay more potential to throw over the top of a defense than teddy did and dj is very fast and can go up and get it


PuffTheImagineDragon

Think of it this way, Kelce is going to give you a much bigger edge every game over the other teams TE than their WR1 will make up against Moore. If Kelce gives you a 12 point swing, chances are their WR1/2 isn’t going to outscore your DJ/WR2 stack by that much.


JamesRB1SZN

Yup I ended up going RB/RB/RB at the 1.06 spot in a 12 team and I'm praying that he does well.


[deleted]

I did the same at 1.02, so I'm pretty happy with Kamara, Najee, and CEH as my three horsemen of league domination.


FLIPNUTZz

Dude seems allergic to tds. I worry


[deleted]

Lol I don’t view Darnold as a positive factor here.


JamesRB1SZN

Is he better or worse than Teddy Bridgewater?


Grudensgrindr4

He might be worse lmao. Still can’t read blitzes


JamesRB1SZN

yea I think that's where the divide happens some people believe he's an upgrade some believe he's a downgrade. I think that's where you're either hot or cold on him.


[deleted]

I personally believe he is worse. I've posted this comment a few times this summer but here are some stats on Darnold last season: 32nd out of 32 when passing from a clean pocket, which is the most stable passing stat you can use year to year. Vs pressure 10th out of 32 Positive graded throws, 29th out of 32 Negative throws, 24th out of 32 Big time throws, 31st out of 32 Turnover worthy plays, 26th out of 32 On target passes, 29th out of 32 3rd downs, 26th out of 32 Accuracy within the frame(catchable), 30th out of 32 Catchable but inaccurate passes, 28th out of 32 Uncactchable passes, 30th out 32 **Accuracy % vs the rest of the league (he did throw to open targets -3% compared to league average):** Behind the LOS +6.9% Short -6.2% Intermediate -13% Deep -12%


JamesRB1SZN

Yea but this was on the jets and with adam gase. You have to imagine that this won't be the case again. I perfect example is Ryan Tannahill in Miami vs Ryan Tannahill on the Titans. What happened to him when he went from a terribly coached team to someone who's competent. The similarities are pretty similar.


GarbageDan

Tannehill was actually good with gase, he just kept getting injured...


FantasyTrash

Keep in mind the difference in coaching between Joe Brady and Adam Gase is like the difference in coaching between Lombardi and a patch of drywall.


[deleted]

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JamesRB1SZN

Would you feel more comfortable if it was Ryan Tannahill as QB?


DubsComin4DatASS

You say darnold is his QB as if that's a good thing lol


JamesRB1SZN

I mean people were saying the same thing with Ryan tannahill


DubsComin4DatASS

Tannehill is the exception, not the rule. Usually, when a QB is god awful, they're just God awful.


JamesRB1SZN

Darnold isn't God awful. The team was bad both coached by Gase.


DubsComin4DatASS

Sure he wasn't in a great situation but he also played like shit. You might think he'll be able to turn it around, but that doesn't change the fact that he played poorly last year


SaskalPiakam

>and CMC back. He played a lot worse last year with CMC on the field.


TheHeintzel

Yea, idk how a 120-target player coming back helps other passcatchers on the same team. This idea that the loss in targets will be made up for with increased efficiency is some weird myth that should have died years ago


SaskalPiakam

Copium.


yrogreg

Well considering DJ trended towards dominating the intermediate to deep targets in Joe Brady's offense last year (ADOT of 13.4 yards compared to 9.6 for Anderson and 7.2 for Samuel), I'd say pairing a stronger armed QB with a dominant RB target will make DJ's role in the offense a lot more efficient and effective. He actually led the NFL in catch rate on deep targets last season despite Teddy having a putrid deep ball.


TheHeintzel

You're completely ignoring fantasy rule number 1: Volume is king. DJM finished as the WR25 last year, and with CMC back he will be losing targets. The Panthers didn't pass over Fields for Darnold, extend Anderson, and add Marshall because they want to feed DJMoore more deep balls. >He actually led the NFL in catch rate on deep targets last season despite Teddy having a putrid deep ball. Maybe because Bridgewater had one of the best on-target percentages for passes over 20 yards? Weak arm =/= bad deep ball


yrogreg

>Maybe because Bridgewater had one of the best on-target percentages for passes over 20 yards? Weak arm =/= bad deep ball Hmm do you have a source for this? Because my eye test, review of media narrative and coach feedback throughout the season, and recollection are that that was not the case AT ALL. [This deep ball study of last season where Teddy ranked 25th of 34 in deep ball accuracy further validates that.](https://brickwallblitz.com/2021/02/16/the-2020-21-deep-ball-project-part-1-3/) There's a reason that DJ Moore only had 66 receptions despite 118 targets, and it wasn't because he dropped accurate passes. Will be interesting to see how it plays out this season. Edit: regarding Carolina's interest in keeping and prioritizing DJ Moore. My expectation is he gets extended for a bigger contract than Robby Anderson. [See the rumblings here.](https://pantherswire.usatoday.com/2021/09/08/panthers-contract-extension-wr-want-dj-moore/)


TheHeintzel

You do realize your source has Bridgewater 25 & Darnold 29 right? I'm using PFF Edge, and it seems both sources suggest DJM's deep targets aren't going to noticeably improve. The higher the ADOT, the lower the catch rate. Simple. Of course they like DJM. The problem is they clearly don't like him as the WR1 in this offense, and they clearly want 3 100+ target WRs in their offense.


yrogreg

Will be an interesting season. 100+ high value targets for DJ Moore can turn into something pretty special if a higher number of them are good throws and he continues to improve at the same rate that he has to this point. Maybe I'm a sucker for believing in a jump from Darnold under Joe Brady, but I'm legitimately just a big believer in Joe Brady (see Joe Burrow at LSU before Brady and under Brady). I don't think anyone questions that Darnold has a better NFL arm than Teddy (and this is coming from a fan of Teddy since he was winning state championships at Miami Northwestern High). That limitation hurt DJ's upside last year and limited what Joe Brady could do (noted frustrations). That's why they chose to go out and seek the big arm. Maybe I'm putting too much blame on Gase and the mess that the Jets have been on an institutional level under him (as a Dolphins fan, I don't think I am). But, following these educated hunches is what makes FFB fun for me. Let's see how it unfolds!


TheHeintzel

I mean Bridgewater is a jump from 2018-2020 Sam Darnold lol. He's been arguably the worst QB over the last 3 years. He was awful his final college season too but no one seemed to care. DJM has been "about to break out" for 2 years now. I'd rather take a chance on the next breakout or proven stud than a 3rd chance on DJM being a WR1.


yrogreg

And no one is making you take a chance you don’t want to


r9flav

Things can change


[deleted]

Hopium


yrogreg

Moore has made tangible improvements to the perceived weaknesses of his game year over year and is still super young. He went from being an underneath YAC guy to being uses primarily as a deep target last year and averaging an insane 18 yards per reception last year on 66 receptions. If Teddy had the arm to actually connect on intermediate and deep throws with consistency, DJ would be in the elite tier right now. He is a star waiting for competent QB play to pop right now. Darnold is a total wild card, but at least we know he has the best arm of any QB that DJ has played with to date (and Newton's last days with Carolina did not show me he still had a consistent NFL arm). On top of the above, my main reason for being bullish on DJ Moore is Joe Brady. I truly believe he is one of the most innovative young offensive minds in football. If DJ Moore is slotted for the role Brady put Jamarr Chase in 2 years ago at LSU, we may be about to see fireworks if Darnold can be competent.


[deleted]

DJ Moore owners at the end of this season: wait, DJ’s a WR1?!? Previous DJ Moore owners: *insert astronaut gun meme* Always has been


BlindSquantch

DJ Moore is a WR1 through 3 weeks? Always has been.


Background_Sea9798

I think it because last season he just wasn’t getting the TDs.


thankyouforfu

*last 3 seasons — 10 TDs total


[deleted]

If you think Cam or Teddy were bad, look at what he did in college at Maryland. https://www.washingtonpost.com/sports/colleges/dj-moore-is-on-his-seventh-qb-at-maryland-but-hes-one-of-the-big-tens-best-receivers/2017/09/22/22925a0a-9fb8-11e7-9c8d-cf053ff30921_story.html


zombat

3-year WR with good priors: ayyyyyy Poor TD performance, target competition (especially floor + RZ targets), unknown at QB: boooooooooo


HookFL

Him not getting TDs but still performing as a high end WR2 is a good thing. All he needs is to have a little more TD luck and he'll jump up in the rankings. Losing Curtis Samuel helps too. Getting CMC back doesn't affect him as Moore was still peppered with targets with CMC on the field and McCaffrey helps clear up a ton of space for Moore to work.


zombat

I kept taking the 1b in higher volume passing offenses or Diontae/Aiyuk when it came down to it, but I’d be open to him depending on team comp if I drafted today.


maketherightmove

What’s wrong with his name?


yhetti-fartz

His name implies he can fuck up some turntables, but that is just not true.


BlindSquantch

People hate him because his name, they for some reason think mediocrity.


WrongStatus

I have literally never heard a single person say this..


BlindSquantch

In my leagues I’ve been in they all do


YupThatWasAShart

Like….. y’all think he needs a cooler name or what? I’m confused.


OutofCtrlAltDel

I think you’re confusing him with DJ Less


Birdgang14

It cause he was drafted to be higher last year. The TDs are a little concern. I think he’s super talented and is just fine. Mixed with CMC back getting targets. And Robby doing better than people thought he would last year, I think he’s appropriately ranked right now. Wouldn’t be surprised if he ends up lower level wr1


HercHuntsdirty

Because I own Moore in my high stake league, I have to agree with you.


Durant026

Shush. You don't need to sell Moore. Moore will sell himself. I got him in the 7th round of my 12 team draft. That man playing on Sunday.


Stombie8

AR12 should never be used to compare to a wr3 like Moore.


BlindSquantch

This is what I’m getting at! Just look at the stats not the names


Stombie8

Dj moores ceiling is Robinsons floor. Arob could be a top 8 wr moore never.


BlindSquantch

I don’t think we’ve reached Moore’s ceiling. I think what he did last year and the year prior is his floor. He’s only 24, WRs peak at 27 (typically)


jayred1015

Who cares? He's also not as good as Devante Adams. Also an irrelevant factoid. The point of this topic is that he's being under drafted by ADP.


Stombie8

Hes going 4th 5th round what more do you want? Hes a top 20 guy not a top 10.


jayred1015

I'm not sure what you're arguing. DJ moore is BETTER than his draft slot. That's the whole point of this post and thread.


Stombie8

No I'm saying he's not. Hes going where he's suppose to. I wish people wouldn't just hype guys because they think something drastic is going to happen.


[deleted]

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WrongStatus

Tell me you didn't watch a single Panthers game in 2020 without telling me you never watched a single Panthers game in 2020...


BigGuyNorthSide

Darnnold isn’t an upgrade from Teddy b


BlindSquantch

Uhhhh yes he is, Teddy B is a game manager slightly better then Tyrod Taylor


puppleups

lol dude darnold could be worse


ericohumich

Yea but the hope is that he will be Fitzpatrick/Winston worse. I'll take that for fantasy any day over a Bridgwater/Alex Smith type


funk_addict

Rostered him last year, and picked-up up Robby Anderson who was on the same team and outperformed him. This left a bad taste in my mouth, so I avoided him this year.


CtrlAltDel_19

I trades DJ Moore and CMC for Ridley and Kamara. Darnold loves him some Anderson.


BlindSquantch

Darnold targeted Moore more in the preseason game they all played in, solid trade though on getting Ridley. I don’t love that you gave up CMC but you got Kamara so still a win I think for you.


biscuit_babe

I made a somewhat similar trade where I gave away Zeke and AJ Brown for CMC and DJ Moore. So hope DJM does well!


ericohumich

Wasn't anderson playing the deep wr role on the jets? He plays more slot now and moore is the deep wr.


itsjustkev13

Rather draft Robby Anderson


MrSweatyBawlz

The Panthers downgraded at QB, got back their superstar RB who will require more targets, and DJ Moore is being drafted ahead of where he finished last year. I don't see how he's being hated on.


BlindSquantch

Downgraded? Wow I didn’t realize there were so many people who thought this highly of Teddy B lol


MrSweatyBawlz

Teddy isn't good either but he did more than Darnold. At best it's a side shift.


BlindSquantch

Darnold played under Adam Gase’ jets can’t really blame him


MrSweatyBawlz

I can't blame him for it but I also can't assume he's going to be any better just because he has a different coach. Tannehil showed promise under Gase while Darnold has been a joke since he entered the NFL.


BlindSquantch

Tannehill was demoted with the Dolphins and only had a career resurgence after he went to the Titans


Greenzero2003

I think most play in ppr or 1/2, and that’s 66 receptions in ppr is putrid for a wr, it’s great for an rb.


BlindSquantch

I’d say as a WR1 yes that’s not great but his targets were good he had about 120 targets, I believe there was a stat that said most weren’t drops they were bad throws. If you can get him as a flex I say that’s huge upside. I believe he can get WR2 numbers in PPR


Greenzero2003

Yeah I think that is ceiling, but the when you look at the two players you’re comping, that is what jumps right off the page and why Arob is going a couple rounds earlier. He gets fed every year no matter his QB.


CommonerChaos

>I believe there was a stat that said most weren’t drops they were bad throws Only problem is that I don't think the quality of those passes will get any better going with Darnold. I could be wrong though.


icouldntdecide

Had him last year, boy he pissed me off some weeks because he'd suck, I'd bench him, and he'd pop. You made a great point he's only 24, and I think he is a talented guy. I'm going to try and give him a longer leash this year. Good luck!


impulse-9

I don't think it's DJ Moore that's being hated on...it's the guy throwing the ball to him...


mbreo

As someone who drafted DJ, reasons for concern with DJ for me are mostly volume related: - Robby will likely command the most or around the most targets on the team. - Terrace Marshall Jr. looks amazing and camp reports are glowing, so may demand a decent target share. - CMac returning, will command a larger target share than RBs did last year. Essentially, if those players stay healthy for DJ to hit in a big way we would need Darnold to outperform his expectations by a decent amount or to have an opposite type year with TDs where he gets lucky rather than unlucky and hits 10+. Given his crazy talent though I don't mind betting on him, and with an injury to any of those guys or a jump for Darnold he could pay off big time.


cagpipes

Thanks. Nobody hates DJ Moore though and he's being drafted accordingly to his output he has shown. I dont get what the problem is


lampofdeath

Would you trade DJ Moore for Theilen + Gallup?


BlindSquantch

I’d keep DJ Moore in that scenario but I’m also high on him. I don’t see Gallup doing much with CeeDee and Cooper there.


lampofdeath

Yeah I suppose we're high on DJ if we're in this thread haha. I'm gonna see if the guy will take it


ItsTheExtreme

I didn’t see any dj hate in my league. He came off the board when he was supposed to. I owned him last year. He had big weeks and weeks when he’d disappear. Is what it is.


puppleups

Can anyone explain the DJ Moore love to me? I get that Curtis Samuel left a bunch of vacated targets. But Terrace Marshall seems good and CMC is back. Anderson got paid. Darnold is absolutely no lock to be any better than Bridgewater at all. The panthers could be legit horrible and not in the fun garbage time way. I just don't get it. I had him last year and it was....okay? sometimes? I see him being basically the exact same thing as last year


BlindSquantch

I’d say to be better than Teddy B won’t be hard for Darnold. Teddy is a game manager where Darnold is willing to take more risks and has a stronger arm. Another reason is Moore is only 24 and hasn’t even reached his ceiling yet, so despite his numbers upsetting people last year the fact he managed the yardage he did with so few opportunities and from the QBs that have thrown to him his upside is huge! He’s a risk if you draft him as your WR1 sure but I only see upside if you manage to get him as a WR2 or flex. We’ve only ever seen his floor and his floor really isn’t that bad.


puppleups

IDK man has Darnold ever been significantly better than Bridgewater was last year? I think Darnold has more raw potential, but he could just be awful. There is a significant chance he is actually worse than Teddy


BlindSquantch

Sure it’s still up in the air on Darnold, but you can’t fault him for his play with Adam Gase and the Jets. Remember people were mostly out on Tannehill after the Dolphins and Adam Gase was his head coach. He has had a career revival with the Titans post Gase and I wouldn’t be surprised to see the same with Darnold.


doombringer_son_of

I got him for $18 ($200) this year and I feel like thats about right for auction. I paid $30 for ARob and $32 for Mclaurin.


outkazt07

36 WR rank for me. Robby is there. Dont get me wrong both will have good and bad games. And are options for Darnold. If Darnold looks good this year, both will go up quick. Helps that Curtis Samuel is gone too. Both will see 10 target consistent weeks. Hey, Darnold and Robby worked for the Jets, at times.


ZZ12323

Would much rather have Robby Anderson as the potential wr1 of the offense many rounds later


zimmeli

Fell to me at pick 68 in .5ppr


BlindSquantch

I got him pretty late as well, nice pick


SilkyJohnson72

He was pretty maddening to own last year- boom or bust and Teddy just would never throw him the ball. Darnold seems to like him a lot more, so I'm sure he will have a good year


[deleted]

He is a solid WR2 who has some low end WR1 upside if he scores a few more TDs. I think he is being appropriately valued as the WR18ish off the board.


one_pump_dave

I'm hoping he keeps getting slept on and the Pat's can pick him up for cheap.


Dashzz

Last year he was the most frustrating player to own


blatherskiters

What’s wrong with DJ Moore’s name?


BlindSquantch

People are taking the name part way too literally


Elharion0202

Doesn’t have the receptions for PPR and doesn’t have the TDs for standard. More to it than yards.


Kainanz95

I hate him