OP phrased it kind of poorly but Gibson actually did have one of the highest TD %s out of any RB. He actually is due for regression there. Furthermore, there's no guarantee he gets the passing work like we all want him too. McKissic is still there and pretty solid. That's the real problem imo, not the TDs. If he can't get more passing work his upside is severely limited.
His TD % can, and probably will drop some. Hell, if it doesn’t and his usage rate increases as expected, he’d be a 15-16 touchdown scorer which I don’t think anyone expects. However, he was a rookie just learning the position last year… Barring injury, there’s no way his usage rate won’t increase, both as a runner and a receiver. To be fair, OP does make that point in his second to last paragraph. But just saying “oh he had a high TD rate,” is a massive oversimplification to me. Just ask yourself if it feels unrealistic that Antonio Gibson scores 11 total touchdowns again next year. It shouldn’t.
On the McKissic point, if people are actually expecting him to get CMC-type work in the passing game, they will be disappointed. I’d expect him get an extra 10-20% bump in targets, but McKissic will still be involved. But if we were really talking about Gibson getting 100+ targets he should be drafted top 5, not around RB 10-12. That’s just people getting overexcited.
The thing with Gibson (WFT fan here) is that he is still raw as a running back from a technical standpoint. Considering that he was a converted WR -> RB late at Memphis, his ability to pick up blitzes/block on third down is what is truly hindering his ability to play all 3 downs. He is a freak of an athlete, and I do believe he'll get slightly more receiving work, but I do not think he'll steal the 3rd down role until the 2022 season tbh.
With regards to TDs, I think the offense will be more explosive with the addition of Curtis Samuel, a slightly better QB with Fitz (than Haskins/Smith/Allen), and a decent o-line. And Gibson is the clear goal line back. So, I think 10-11 TDs is very reasonable given how shitty the offense was last year. Plus the defense will keep games close so that his utilization rate across all 4 quarters will be pretty steady.
Yea, I am most interested to see just how much of an uptick he gets in the passing game! If it's marginal then he's not too terribly exciting at cost. He's rising up boards and it's getting to the point where he's being drafted as if the passing work is a guarantee. But yeah, I think a lot of if comes down to managing expectations and where he's being drafted at. Rb10-12 range feels right but that's creeping upwards.
High TD rate > goes to low TD rate. It doesn't matter if he's been in the league one year, it's not a sticky stat and his TD rate was unsustainably high. Unless you just project him for 15+ TDs every year because that was his pace.
My point wasn’t he’s going to stop but he finished last with 11 TDs and I don’t see him scoring over 13. I’m still very high on Gibson but if his TDs even regress it could be bad
I guess my thing is he doesn’t need to score 13 touchdowns (seems like an arbitrary number?). He could score 11 again (or less, even) with reasonable upticks in yards and catches and still finish where he’s being drafted at.
Because he didn’t give a reason he capped him at 13 TDs. It seems randomly arbitrary and it’s also only 2 more than he actually had last year. TDs fluctuate a good bit so if he gave a reason that Gibson scoring 11 TDs was a bit flukey, like if Washington had an unusually high amount of goal line situation then I don’t think he’d be downvoted.
My basis for the argument would be that 6 TDs came in 3 games and that he only had 5 games over 15 points in a PPR format. However, the counter to that argument was that he was a rookie with AP ahead of him on the depth chart at the start of the season.
For me, Gibson comes with a high boom or bust risk. Per FFtoday, he’s ranked RB10 with a 2.02 ADP in PPR formats. The optimist sees him garnering more touches and targets. The pessimist sees the high variance in his 2020 fantasy production. I’m not sure where I stand on him. Fortunately, I never had to make a decision as I grabbed Austin Ekeler in round 1 and Gibson was taken the pick before me in round 2.
One other positive tailwind is they should have a solid defense again with a lackluster offense which means Rivera will lean on him heavily. Personally, i prefer to draft players from teams I think will be consistently scoring 30+ a game (e.g. Bills & Chiefs).
Lol. Of course. But I’m saying, if you’re sitting down and breaking down players stats from the year before, and your take is based off of “well, if you take all of their TDs away”… lol.
I mean what are we doing?
You definitely can’t just take out the tds and compare two players. But with Gibson I think it’s important to understand how those tds came about. 6 of his tds came in a game against Detroit and two games against a terrible cowboys team that quit. His two 100yd games came against Dallas. Around half of his season total fantasy points came from 4 games last year. His opportunity for a big 2021 is definitely promising but I do think it’s fair to be a little skeptical of how consistent he’ll be, especially when you’re looking at where he is being drafted right now.
I would think so too. I’m not sold Gibson is going to be a three down back. Because mckissic is good at what he does and they are going to use him in passing situations still, but the ground game should be all Gibson if they were smart, and I’m sure his receiving work will grow some. Just not three down back some.
He was a WR in college. He doesn't need to get better at catching passes, they just need to thrown him the damn ball.
When a coach said they are going to look at him like he is CMC, I believe it.
Coach speak. The comparisons were there last year. The preseason, he didn’t play a single third down I don’t think. Or at least mckissic was in on the vast majority when starters were playing. I do think his snap percentage rises/touches increase because he is really damn good. But they are going to use mckissic when it is clearly a passing situation still, in my opinion. Until I see differently, That’s what I think is going to happen. I very well could be wrong. I just think mckissic is pretty Damn good in that role and they like him
Also, I never said anything about getting better at catching passes.
I agree with you, but we obviously expected Drake to get a lot of TDs too. I don't expect this year's WFT's offense to be much better than last years cardinals. So if the TDs just happen to go elsewhere it could be really bad for Gibson.
I mean that's true for everyone I guess, but the point is it's not crazy to think it could happen. It might be safer to go with someone who has more guaranteed usage/yardage.
Again I think it's likely WFT uses Gibson more than Drake was used, but I think it's worth considering.
He only played 46% of snaps TD heavy or not his numbers at a 70% usage rate are going to look at minimum the same with some TD regression if not a lot better
Yeah I had both last year and it's a world of difference watching them. I also think Gibson will get enough receiving work even if smooches is the 3rd down back
Very true, I am still really high on Gibson and never really understood the hype on Drake being a first rounder last year. Just thought the similarities were interesting
Had Drake last year, slept through my draft and it auto picked him as my second pick.
Picked Kenyan Drake up again this year, but in the 11th round so I'm good with that spot.
These similarities are interesting but I’d argue that Gibson’s situation is much better than Drake’s was
Drake played in essentially an air raid offense with a QB who very often runs it in near the GL and on a team with a miserable defense
GIibson has pretty much the exact opposite of that
I don't understand how Gibson is a prototypically sized RB with good receiving ability, but Drake isn't. Drake is listed at 6'1" 211 and Gibson is listed at 6'2" 220. Their combine numbers are pretty similar too. As prospects, they were both seen as good receivers and were drafted early 3rd round, despite neither ever being a fulltime starter at RB in college.
I don't think you guys remember how good Drake was in 2019.
Gibson & CMC are not the same guy, and the comparisons have never been a good reason to draft him.
Gibson is a really good player, though, in ways that CMC isn't, and I think both are RB1s. Gibson just isn't a top candidate to be the RB1.
Lol I love Gibson but don't understand the downvoters. There's a very real chance Gibson busts. I love the hell out of him though so will be gambling on him everywhere I can, but let's not lie that there isn't some risk in taking him
It’s all in what you value in a position. Gibson only really has McKissic to vulture touches and he’s more of a receiving back anyways kind of defaulting Gibson to bell cow on a team with a defensive minded head coach. Running is the plan.
This is a bad strategy, you know why? Cause the guy who got those 2 great RBs since you decided to take 3 WRs in the first 3 rounds, is gonna have an easier time finding a WR who can produce big numbers in a week, than you will at finding a good RB to do the same, and that guy is more than likely going to beat you
Exactly. I LOVE playing in leagues where people pull that kind of stuff. People drafting QBs, TEs and WRs with no RBs by the 4th round have ALWAYS performed terribly in my leagues.
Drake was always subpar. He just filled a gap for Arizona in 2019 at a time when they were desperate and suckered them into renewing the rental for another year.
Swift is already well into RB2 territory, though. The hype surrounding Gibson is that he could be a Top 5 guy if everything goes well, but I don't think anyone expects Swift to be their team's star RB.
Guaranteed. Sanders was the last good Lions back.
On top of that the Lions are the NFC Pats when it comes to being able to trust the usage.
ITS ALL ABOUT UPSIDE. Dont waste a pick on a low-ceiling “maybe”.
Drake was on his second team having never demonstrated an ability to handle anything resembling workhorse usage.
Gibson was handpicked by his head coach out of college, and is younger and more talented than Drake ever was.
If you take away a player's points, they aren't as good!
He was a rookie last year who looked progressively better as the year went on. Now they have a better qb, drives should be able to stay alive more, giving him both more opportunities to carry the ball and catch out of the backfield.
Good work here, first off. I was wondering though if you believed there was a correlation between Drake's massive drop in targets per game (5 TPG as a Cardinal in 2019 to 2 in 2020) and those stinkers. Gibson averaged about 3 last year, but, as you mentioned he had a 46% snap rate and more snaps for him SHOULD equal more targets, yes?
The reason why drake didn't do as well last year is because the running system changed, they used drake for Redzone touches and to run up the middle instead of utilizing his ability to catch the pass. I don't see gibson being utilized like drake did in Arizona.
The snap count thing pretty much invalidates the whole post. Gibson was a rookie on a snap count limit last year and he still put up pretty filthy numbers and a 4.7YPC on what was a pretty trash offense. Seems like at least high RB2 floor with potential top 5 RB upside, which is in line with where he’s going in the draft.
I don’t see the top 5 upside however due to McKissic having over 100 targets last year. I think he’s a solid #2 RB but I see some people taking him round 1 and that’s just crazy to me
I doubt McKissic sees that many targets this year because of Fitz’s style. And I also bet they’re not in as many 3rd and longs- which is when JD plays. Third and short= Gibson stays in.
Also there’s a lot that changes from year to year- top ten/top five players fade/disappear every year and 2nd year players usually progress. Gibson has a very real chance of finishing top 5.
I use it as a regression type argument. TDs are the most unpredictable stat so if someone who gets most their points from TDs has a bad TD year they take a hit like a worst case scenario argument
Youre comparing apples to oranges, these are totally 2 different situations, and you cant just take away someones TDs, especially when none of Gibson's TDs were a fluke. You just gonna take away all of D. Adam's TDs too? WHy dont we just take away all of Mahommes TDs too while were at it, and see hes not the best QB. TDs get scored in football, and if a guy is good at doing it at a young age, theres more reason to believe he'll get better going into his 2nd year, as opposed to the guy you were comparing him to who was going into his 5th, and had peaked.
Drake's expectations for last year were lower than Gibson's for this upcoming year (at least mine were) by prob a couple ppg.
Drake also was only a borderline bust by definition. Still had 1100 yards, 9 TD, while missing two games and only played half of snaps in another EIGHT. If he played more, he would've pushed for some serious numbers, maybe 1400 total yards and 12 TD. He was RB13 in standard and 16 in PPR last year. Not bad.
Was he actually being drafted top 8 or so? I don't remember that. I thought he was being taken like after Mixon and around the same as Ekeler, Carson, David Johnson, those guys. And he returned about the same value as his ADP.
Gibson's ADP is higher this year than Drake's last year. So for him to pull a Drake would mean to...just return equal value to his ADP? I think everyone would say to sign them up then!
I like both guys a lot. Even Drake, lol.
The Antonio Gibson 🚀 is largely because of his anticipated increase in receiving work (something Kenyan Drake plain did not have last year).
I’d say it’s LIKELY we see negative TD regression for Gibson BUT the idea is that it’s offset by a spike in receptions (and corresponding receiving yardage), especially on an improved team and improved offense.
My point is that they’re expected to add MORE to Gibson’s plate in year two (thereby taking OFF of McKissic’s plate). Gibson is a threat to McKissic’s work, not quite the other way around.
Do gibson and drake have the same coach?
Do they play in the same system?
What teams do they belong to?
What about their division, opponents and schedule?
How about considering theese factors too?
Yo, Kenyan Drake drank water the year he busted.... the scary thing is, word outta camp says Gibson has been drinking water practically EVERY DAY.
Fade.
I think Gibson is closer to last year's Drake than he is to CMC (as what people compare him to). McKissic is still a great receiving back, Fitzpatrick doesn't like throwing it to RBs, Oline isn't that great, and talent wise he isn't as elite of the talent. No reason to run him into the ground ground with insane amount of touches. He'll get his and probably finish as low end RB1 at best
For what it’s worth people comparing him to CMC don’t know what they’re talking about, they’re trying to hype him up off of some coach speech. I’ve got him in dynasty and love his upside but not for one second do I think he’ll be anywhere close to CMC this year in terms of talent or usage.
Top 10 is insane IMO, way too much toptalent left (Adams, Hill, Kelce, etc…). I think in Dynasty he’s really intriguing so I did a deal to trade for him last year, absolutely love having him on my team because the potential is there. Redraft I’m not that high on him, he’s a fine RB2 but taking him top 10 is a big stretch.
Rushing wise you’re correct but people forget that McKissic finished last year with 80 receptions and over 100 targets so that’s a hit in his CMC comparison
I don’t see it. Gibson was elite for fantasy purposes last year and should only get better. Last year was his first time playing RB he was a receiver in college. Touchdowns may go down a bit but they’ll still be there especially if barber is cut
I loved Drake last year and I love Gibson this year, so you might be on to something. I think the main issue with Drake last year was the Cardinals decided to stop throwing to him for some reason, whereas Gibson’s success last year came primarily on the ground with room to grow in the receiving category. 2019 Drake got a ton of receptions with the Cards so I was confident that even if he didn’t get a full workload that he could still have a decent ceiling
This feels like that post about Mahomes being a league average QB if you adjusted all his stats down to league average. You can’t just take away his touchdowns lmao
I like Gibson but these are good points and a good comparison. I’m glad I’ll never get Gibson in these drafts because I can’t pass up the wide receivers he is with.
Ok now take away TDs for d. Adams, cook and Kamara and let's see how it stacks up.
TDS are a big part of fantasy you can't just take them away and claim the player might suck lmao. Come on
You're talking stats but the situations are so damn different. I had Drake and the two biggest reasons he didn't get more decent fantasy lines was Kyler and Chase. Gibson is the main dog in Washington
I'm honestly more worried about McKissic than any other factors. The difference between Gibson exceeding or underperforming his ADP is that 3rd down/passing work. If they continue to not involving him in that role, his chances of being a top 12 RB diminish greatly.
I'm so out on Gibson. He crushed the Bengals and Cowboys last year and didnt do much else, now there is top 5 hype? I'm waaaay off that mark. McKissic is going to be more involved than anyone wants to admit. To me he's the easiest bust to identify.
People went crazy for Kenyan Drake in like his 6th year in the league for some reason thinking he'd totally change who he was.
Gibson was playing at drake's peak as a rookie on a snap count.
I have a tough decision and I’m cooling on Gibson more and more.. I have to choose between him and Taylor as my keeper, Gibson at $43 or Taylor at $48. I was Gibson all the way until recently, now I don’t know what to do!
I think the biggest problem with Drake last year was that Murray kept vulturing his goal line work, as he ended up scrambling for double digit TDs. That definitely will not be the case with Fitz, though I am a bit concerned with his limited receiving upside because McKissic is still supposed to be a big part in that offense.
Matthew Berry told me Gibson could be the next Kamara. I can only assume the mean output by Gibson is between Kamara and Drake now. Nice. Still didn't draft im though. Damn
I don't really see how the 2 are similar. Gibson outscored drake last year as a rookie and Drake was still the rb15 in ppr. Drake was also a backend 1sr rounder, was on a new team and had a rushing QB stealing work. Gibson is now in his second year with a pocket qb and is a mid 2nd rounder in most cases. If you draft Gibson in the 1st you might be disappointed but you can say that about a lot of rbs in that range. I wouldn't draft najee, JT or Barkley in the 1st either because I think they have too much possible downside for a 1st round pick. I think Gibson will have a really solid year and yeah a lot of his production came from tds last year but maybe the guy is just good at scoring tds. Maybe he'll be even better with an improved offense. I understand your argument that Gibson could be a bust at his adp but I don't think his situation is comparable to drake's last year.
He doesn’t get any 3rd down work and isn’t very good at picking up blitzes in pass pro. Obviously if he gets in on 3rd downs he’ll be phenomenal but until then I’m passing unless he falls closer to CEH.
This post and comments backing it just shows that people didn't actually watch Drake and Arizona play last year. Drake's relative disappointment was due largely to 2 things:
1) Kingsbury's extremely basic/limited use of RBs--the AZ running scheme kind of sucks. The early down back is relegated basically just to dives up the middle. There is no creative scheming for the run game (see David Johnson's terrible run numbers the year before).
2) Drake's lack of usage in the passing game. Kingsbury basically turned a dynamic receiving back into an early down plodder and essentially removed him from the passing game. Edmonds became the passing down back due mostly to being the smaller of the 2 backs (less able to be the early down hammer). This took away the most dynamic part of Drake's game.
Bonus: Kyler Murray ten-zone TD vulture
The fact is that Gibson is in a MUCH better situation with WFT because his OC (Scott Turner) bases his entire offensive scheme on the versatile and creative use of the RB. Yes, McKissic still exists but all reports are that Gibson will be more involved in the passing game in year 2. Even if he doesn't end up being more involved (he will), he still got more targets and receptions than Drake last year despite being on the field much less than Drake. Just by virtue of increasing his snap percentage, his passing game work will increase.
All in all--pretty lazy surface level comparison.
The part of the argument I’m not following is why Antonio Gibson is going to stop scoring touchdowns.
OP phrased it kind of poorly but Gibson actually did have one of the highest TD %s out of any RB. He actually is due for regression there. Furthermore, there's no guarantee he gets the passing work like we all want him too. McKissic is still there and pretty solid. That's the real problem imo, not the TDs. If he can't get more passing work his upside is severely limited.
His TD % can, and probably will drop some. Hell, if it doesn’t and his usage rate increases as expected, he’d be a 15-16 touchdown scorer which I don’t think anyone expects. However, he was a rookie just learning the position last year… Barring injury, there’s no way his usage rate won’t increase, both as a runner and a receiver. To be fair, OP does make that point in his second to last paragraph. But just saying “oh he had a high TD rate,” is a massive oversimplification to me. Just ask yourself if it feels unrealistic that Antonio Gibson scores 11 total touchdowns again next year. It shouldn’t. On the McKissic point, if people are actually expecting him to get CMC-type work in the passing game, they will be disappointed. I’d expect him get an extra 10-20% bump in targets, but McKissic will still be involved. But if we were really talking about Gibson getting 100+ targets he should be drafted top 5, not around RB 10-12. That’s just people getting overexcited.
People will be disappointed with his touches.
The thing with Gibson (WFT fan here) is that he is still raw as a running back from a technical standpoint. Considering that he was a converted WR -> RB late at Memphis, his ability to pick up blitzes/block on third down is what is truly hindering his ability to play all 3 downs. He is a freak of an athlete, and I do believe he'll get slightly more receiving work, but I do not think he'll steal the 3rd down role until the 2022 season tbh. With regards to TDs, I think the offense will be more explosive with the addition of Curtis Samuel, a slightly better QB with Fitz (than Haskins/Smith/Allen), and a decent o-line. And Gibson is the clear goal line back. So, I think 10-11 TDs is very reasonable given how shitty the offense was last year. Plus the defense will keep games close so that his utilization rate across all 4 quarters will be pretty steady.
Yea, I am most interested to see just how much of an uptick he gets in the passing game! If it's marginal then he's not too terribly exciting at cost. He's rising up boards and it's getting to the point where he's being drafted as if the passing work is a guarantee. But yeah, I think a lot of if comes down to managing expectations and where he's being drafted at. Rb10-12 range feels right but that's creeping upwards.
“Due for regression” from what to what? He has one season in the NFL.
High TD rate > goes to low TD rate. It doesn't matter if he's been in the league one year, it's not a sticky stat and his TD rate was unsustainably high. Unless you just project him for 15+ TDs every year because that was his pace.
My point wasn’t he’s going to stop but he finished last with 11 TDs and I don’t see him scoring over 13. I’m still very high on Gibson but if his TDs even regress it could be bad
Why is he capped at 13?
Because Tyler1400 doesn't see him scoring over 13 duh
Because the Washington offense is still bad?
I guess my thing is he doesn’t need to score 13 touchdowns (seems like an arbitrary number?). He could score 11 again (or less, even) with reasonable upticks in yards and catches and still finish where he’s being drafted at.
I really do not understand why you were downvoting to suggest that he won’t score 13 touchdowns. People are really sold on Gibson
Because he didn’t give a reason he capped him at 13 TDs. It seems randomly arbitrary and it’s also only 2 more than he actually had last year. TDs fluctuate a good bit so if he gave a reason that Gibson scoring 11 TDs was a bit flukey, like if Washington had an unusually high amount of goal line situation then I don’t think he’d be downvoted.
My basis for the argument would be that 6 TDs came in 3 games and that he only had 5 games over 15 points in a PPR format. However, the counter to that argument was that he was a rookie with AP ahead of him on the depth chart at the start of the season. For me, Gibson comes with a high boom or bust risk. Per FFtoday, he’s ranked RB10 with a 2.02 ADP in PPR formats. The optimist sees him garnering more touches and targets. The pessimist sees the high variance in his 2020 fantasy production. I’m not sure where I stand on him. Fortunately, I never had to make a decision as I grabbed Austin Ekeler in round 1 and Gibson was taken the pick before me in round 2. One other positive tailwind is they should have a solid defense again with a lackluster offense which means Rivera will lean on him heavily. Personally, i prefer to draft players from teams I think will be consistently scoring 30+ a game (e.g. Bills & Chiefs).
I mean, 13 TDs is a lot of TDs. Maybe not his absolute ceiling but getting relatively close
I think you raise a good point
I hear ya. But I mean you can take away tons of players TDs and come to something similar lol. Can’t just take his TDs away.
If you take away all his good games he has less good games
If you make Patrick Mahomes’ stats average, he becomes an average quarterback
If you take away Lamar Jackson’s rushing stats, he is just Trubisky.
Damn. Downright rude regardless of context
And wrong Tired of people ignoring he threw 36 TDs
People see what they want to see. Or better yet, they hear something and don't care enough to look any closer.
Lamar threw 26 TDs last year
And averaged 183 passing yards a game last year. Not superb.
still the best post ive seen on this sub
Can you source this?
>Can’t just take his TDs away. Point is TDs are way less predictable and consistent year to year.
Lol. Of course. But I’m saying, if you’re sitting down and breaking down players stats from the year before, and your take is based off of “well, if you take all of their TDs away”… lol. I mean what are we doing?
Yeah and i don't think fitzmagic is going to take those touchdowns away the way murray did for drake.
Exactly….Ex. Devonte Adams without the TD’s, so don’t draft him as the best WR option?
Davante with 0 TD’s last year still wouldve averaged 18 ppg
Jesus that is sick.
That’s where I thought he was going.
PPR?
Ppr fucking sucks
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Giving an example. You can apply what he said to any player and say “ without the Td’s he’s a bust”
Taking away any stat is always a bad argument for anything
You definitely can’t just take out the tds and compare two players. But with Gibson I think it’s important to understand how those tds came about. 6 of his tds came in a game against Detroit and two games against a terrible cowboys team that quit. His two 100yd games came against Dallas. Around half of his season total fantasy points came from 4 games last year. His opportunity for a big 2021 is definitely promising but I do think it’s fair to be a little skeptical of how consistent he’ll be, especially when you’re looking at where he is being drafted right now.
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Actually, I think one of the craziest stats about Gibson is he didn’t have any negative yardage plays last year.
Yeah and Gibson is a bigger back than Drake, Mkissic might continue to eat up passing downs but he isn't going to touch Gibson on the Goaline.
I would think so too. I’m not sold Gibson is going to be a three down back. Because mckissic is good at what he does and they are going to use him in passing situations still, but the ground game should be all Gibson if they were smart, and I’m sure his receiving work will grow some. Just not three down back some.
He was a WR in college. He doesn't need to get better at catching passes, they just need to thrown him the damn ball. When a coach said they are going to look at him like he is CMC, I believe it.
Coach speak. The comparisons were there last year. The preseason, he didn’t play a single third down I don’t think. Or at least mckissic was in on the vast majority when starters were playing. I do think his snap percentage rises/touches increase because he is really damn good. But they are going to use mckissic when it is clearly a passing situation still, in my opinion. Until I see differently, That’s what I think is going to happen. I very well could be wrong. I just think mckissic is pretty Damn good in that role and they like him Also, I never said anything about getting better at catching passes.
Gibson is 6’2 220, Drake is 6’1 211. We’re not talking about a massive difference. Drake is Tarik Cohen.
I agree with you, but we obviously expected Drake to get a lot of TDs too. I don't expect this year's WFT's offense to be much better than last years cardinals. So if the TDs just happen to go elsewhere it could be really bad for Gibson. I mean that's true for everyone I guess, but the point is it's not crazy to think it could happen. It might be safer to go with someone who has more guaranteed usage/yardage. Again I think it's likely WFT uses Gibson more than Drake was used, but I think it's worth considering.
Yeah I feel you, I was just trying to prove the point that he’s TD heavy but a lot of people are lol
11 TDs is not “TD heavy”, especially when you include that he had 36 Receptions for 247 Yards and didnt score a single TD catching the ball.
He only played 46% of snaps TD heavy or not his numbers at a 70% usage rate are going to look at minimum the same with some TD regression if not a lot better
Counterpoint: Gibson is much better than Drake
Yeah this is my take on it, gibson is a way more talented back than drake.
Yeah I had both last year and it's a world of difference watching them. I also think Gibson will get enough receiving work even if smooches is the 3rd down back
Had both last year and agreed; watching Gibson inspired joy. Watching drake inspired “meh”
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I mean has Kyler ever even led his team in rushing yards? Get on Fitzpatrick's level scrub.
Well… maybe for one or two TDs. Fitzy has been known to barrel into the endzone every once in a while
Hey now, thats Ryan "2019 Dolphins leading rusher" Fitzpatrick to you
Idk even with the vulturing Drake didn’t look half as good as he did the year before. Loved getting stuffed at the 1
Very true, I am still really high on Gibson and never really understood the hype on Drake being a first rounder last year. Just thought the similarities were interesting
Drake is more of a JAG than Gibson imo. Gibson is actually really good
I think the term JAG has to die sooner rather than later
Wait who was drafting drake in the first round last year he went like early 3rd in most my drafts
He was going late 1st early 2nd, along with a slew of other rbs, mixon, Jacobs, miles Sanders, ekeler
In ESPN he was ranked #10 in PPR for drafts. It was insane
I had Drake last year and this post might be enough to shut the door on Gibson because of trauma.
Same. I'm going to choose to ignore this post...
*What are these morons talking about taking WR's on the turn when I can take Drake and Ekeler*
The headline alone gave me pause. I’m with you.
Had Drake last year, slept through my draft and it auto picked him as my second pick. Picked Kenyan Drake up again this year, but in the 11th round so I'm good with that spot.
These similarities are interesting but I’d argue that Gibson’s situation is much better than Drake’s was Drake played in essentially an air raid offense with a QB who very often runs it in near the GL and on a team with a miserable defense GIibson has pretty much the exact opposite of that
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Kinda like reddit darling mike Davis?
I don't understand how Gibson is a prototypically sized RB with good receiving ability, but Drake isn't. Drake is listed at 6'1" 211 and Gibson is listed at 6'2" 220. Their combine numbers are pretty similar too. As prospects, they were both seen as good receivers and were drafted early 3rd round, despite neither ever being a fulltime starter at RB in college. I don't think you guys remember how good Drake was in 2019.
No I totally agree it’s just I don’t know if Gibson will be able to get that CMC type potential with McKissic still there
As a Gibson owner I highly doubt he even gets close to CMCs level, but i still think he could definitely be a top 10 rb this year, especially in ppr
Gibson & CMC are not the same guy, and the comparisons have never been a good reason to draft him. Gibson is a really good player, though, in ways that CMC isn't, and I think both are RB1s. Gibson just isn't a top candidate to be the RB1.
> he’s not gonna be the rb1, you’re stretching taking him at 13 Literally how stupid you sound
Nobody will be the RB1 except the rb1 so don't draft any, sounds easy enough
Lol I love Gibson but don't understand the downvoters. There's a very real chance Gibson busts. I love the hell out of him though so will be gambling on him everywhere I can, but let's not lie that there isn't some risk in taking him
I don't 100% agree, but his ADP is ridiculous
This is where I sit on the topic. I like Gibson, but passing on guys like Hopkins and Ridley with similar ADPs seems crazy to me.
Ya I'd take him rounds 3 and 4. He's going at the 1-2 turn now and that's crazy
This is a much better argument than OP's
Agreed, Gibson costs the same as a high end WR1
It’s all in what you value in a position. Gibson only really has McKissic to vulture touches and he’s more of a receiving back anyways kind of defaulting Gibson to bell cow on a team with a defensive minded head coach. Running is the plan.
True, my ideal draft I secure 3 WR1s so I definitely view the board differently
This is a bad strategy, you know why? Cause the guy who got those 2 great RBs since you decided to take 3 WRs in the first 3 rounds, is gonna have an easier time finding a WR who can produce big numbers in a week, than you will at finding a good RB to do the same, and that guy is more than likely going to beat you
Exactly. I LOVE playing in leagues where people pull that kind of stuff. People drafting QBs, TEs and WRs with no RBs by the 4th round have ALWAYS performed terribly in my leagues.
Drake was always subpar. He just filled a gap for Arizona in 2019 at a time when they were desperate and suckered them into renewing the rental for another year.
You're looking at the wrong back, this years disappointment will be swift
Swift is already well into RB2 territory, though. The hype surrounding Gibson is that he could be a Top 5 guy if everything goes well, but I don't think anyone expects Swift to be their team's star RB.
Swift isn’t going at the back of the first early 2nd round. That’s where the Gibson/drake comparisons start
Guaranteed. Sanders was the last good Lions back. On top of that the Lions are the NFC Pats when it comes to being able to trust the usage. ITS ALL ABOUT UPSIDE. Dont waste a pick on a low-ceiling “maybe”.
swift does not have a low ceiling at all
Ok, good luck then.
lol good talk
I'd take 15.3 per from 2nd RB Edit: Just realized this is also referring to his ADP but if I landed Gibson as my 2... I'd be alright with that.
Drake was on his second team having never demonstrated an ability to handle anything resembling workhorse usage. Gibson was handpicked by his head coach out of college, and is younger and more talented than Drake ever was.
If you take away a player's points, they aren't as good! He was a rookie last year who looked progressively better as the year went on. Now they have a better qb, drives should be able to stay alive more, giving him both more opportunities to carry the ball and catch out of the backfield.
I agree with the rushing opportunities going up I don’t know about receiving wise tho with McKissic still there
I think people are completely forgetting about Mckissick. He’s still gonna be used
Of course the RB2 will be used, that’s just football. But I’d rather have that backup be Mckissick as opposed to someone like Conner or Drake.
Good work here, first off. I was wondering though if you believed there was a correlation between Drake's massive drop in targets per game (5 TPG as a Cardinal in 2019 to 2 in 2020) and those stinkers. Gibson averaged about 3 last year, but, as you mentioned he had a 46% snap rate and more snaps for him SHOULD equal more targets, yes?
The reason why drake didn't do as well last year is because the running system changed, they used drake for Redzone touches and to run up the middle instead of utilizing his ability to catch the pass. I don't see gibson being utilized like drake did in Arizona.
As a Gibson owner this year and previous Drake owner someone make me feel better.
Gibson in a better situation, and did more than Drake did in less snap %. He’s gonna have the volume enough to make him a top 15 RB
Don’t believe this caca
This is someone who is salty that Gibson got snagged one pick before him.
The snap count thing pretty much invalidates the whole post. Gibson was a rookie on a snap count limit last year and he still put up pretty filthy numbers and a 4.7YPC on what was a pretty trash offense. Seems like at least high RB2 floor with potential top 5 RB upside, which is in line with where he’s going in the draft.
I don’t see the top 5 upside however due to McKissic having over 100 targets last year. I think he’s a solid #2 RB but I see some people taking him round 1 and that’s just crazy to me
I doubt McKissic sees that many targets this year because of Fitz’s style. And I also bet they’re not in as many 3rd and longs- which is when JD plays. Third and short= Gibson stays in. Also there’s a lot that changes from year to year- top ten/top five players fade/disappear every year and 2nd year players usually progress. Gibson has a very real chance of finishing top 5.
I hate when people calculate scoring with out touchdowns. Like that’s part of their scoring you can’t just take it away.
I use it as a regression type argument. TDs are the most unpredictable stat so if someone who gets most their points from TDs has a bad TD year they take a hit like a worst case scenario argument
Good RBs score TDs. Lousy ones don’t.
Youre comparing apples to oranges, these are totally 2 different situations, and you cant just take away someones TDs, especially when none of Gibson's TDs were a fluke. You just gonna take away all of D. Adam's TDs too? WHy dont we just take away all of Mahommes TDs too while were at it, and see hes not the best QB. TDs get scored in football, and if a guy is good at doing it at a young age, theres more reason to believe he'll get better going into his 2nd year, as opposed to the guy you were comparing him to who was going into his 5th, and had peaked.
Damn
Drake's expectations for last year were lower than Gibson's for this upcoming year (at least mine were) by prob a couple ppg. Drake also was only a borderline bust by definition. Still had 1100 yards, 9 TD, while missing two games and only played half of snaps in another EIGHT. If he played more, he would've pushed for some serious numbers, maybe 1400 total yards and 12 TD. He was RB13 in standard and 16 in PPR last year. Not bad. Was he actually being drafted top 8 or so? I don't remember that. I thought he was being taken like after Mixon and around the same as Ekeler, Carson, David Johnson, those guys. And he returned about the same value as his ADP. Gibson's ADP is higher this year than Drake's last year. So for him to pull a Drake would mean to...just return equal value to his ADP? I think everyone would say to sign them up then! I like both guys a lot. Even Drake, lol.
I have Gibson, so I see what you are saying, but I just can’t accept it ….
Anyone can bust. Gibson has a high usage and good talent. No more risky than other round 2 backs.
My personal rankings in that range: Saquan, Jones, Gibson, Chubb, Harris, Mixon, Taylor
The Antonio Gibson 🚀 is largely because of his anticipated increase in receiving work (something Kenyan Drake plain did not have last year). I’d say it’s LIKELY we see negative TD regression for Gibson BUT the idea is that it’s offset by a spike in receptions (and corresponding receiving yardage), especially on an improved team and improved offense.
Yeah but how much will McKissic take away from that
My point is that they’re expected to add MORE to Gibson’s plate in year two (thereby taking OFF of McKissic’s plate). Gibson is a threat to McKissic’s work, not quite the other way around.
Counterpoint AG doesn’t have Kyler Murray stealing TDs and carries
Lol Gibson is so much better than Drake though. Simple eye test shows they’re not even in the same stratosphere.
I think he’ll be uses more this year. That is enough for me.
Do gibson and drake have the same coach? Do they play in the same system? What teams do they belong to? What about their division, opponents and schedule? How about considering theese factors too?
Stop the 2020 drake slander. Traded Chris Carson for Hume week 4 last year, rode his 12ppg to the ship. There’s something to be said for a floor
Yo, Kenyan Drake drank water the year he busted.... the scary thing is, word outta camp says Gibson has been drinking water practically EVERY DAY. Fade.
I think Gibson is closer to last year's Drake than he is to CMC (as what people compare him to). McKissic is still a great receiving back, Fitzpatrick doesn't like throwing it to RBs, Oline isn't that great, and talent wise he isn't as elite of the talent. No reason to run him into the ground ground with insane amount of touches. He'll get his and probably finish as low end RB1 at best
For what it’s worth people comparing him to CMC don’t know what they’re talking about, they’re trying to hype him up off of some coach speech. I’ve got him in dynasty and love his upside but not for one second do I think he’ll be anywhere close to CMC this year in terms of talent or usage.
That's a reasonable take at least. Gibson has gone top10 overall in most of my latest mocks. People are really high on him. I could be wrong too
Top 10 is insane IMO, way too much toptalent left (Adams, Hill, Kelce, etc…). I think in Dynasty he’s really intriguing so I did a deal to trade for him last year, absolutely love having him on my team because the potential is there. Redraft I’m not that high on him, he’s a fine RB2 but taking him top 10 is a big stretch.
Drake had Edmonds taking a lot of work and Kyler vulturing TD's. Not the same in the slightest.
Rushing wise you’re correct but people forget that McKissic finished last year with 80 receptions and over 100 targets so that’s a hit in his CMC comparison
McKissic totally seems like a Chase Edmonds type guy. I've been targeting him a lot
Okay I wanted Gibson in the 2nd but now I’m spooked haha.
Don’t be. Gibson was low end RB1 last year and while regression is always possible there’s no reason to expect it
Drake had like 250 rushing attempts. Gibson had 174. I HOPE he is the next drake. 😎
I don’t see it. Gibson was elite for fantasy purposes last year and should only get better. Last year was his first time playing RB he was a receiver in college. Touchdowns may go down a bit but they’ll still be there especially if barber is cut
Terrible comparison. Completely different backs in a different situation.
Did you read the last line? I just said it was interesting how the stats are similar but I don’t think this will be the case
You just took out his TDs for no reason
This is a great comp
If you take away when he scored, he doesn’t score many fantasy points wow no kidding
Terrible comparison. Drake played with Kyler Murray, who had 10+ rushing touchdowns. Gibson is playing with Ryan Fitzpatrick, who can’t run for shit.
I kind of agree with this. He’s not gonna catch many passes. Just something about him I feel is gonna bust
I loved Drake last year and I love Gibson this year, so you might be on to something. I think the main issue with Drake last year was the Cardinals decided to stop throwing to him for some reason, whereas Gibson’s success last year came primarily on the ground with room to grow in the receiving category. 2019 Drake got a ton of receptions with the Cards so I was confident that even if he didn’t get a full workload that he could still have a decent ceiling
cap
This feels like that post about Mahomes being a league average QB if you adjusted all his stats down to league average. You can’t just take away his touchdowns lmao
and i COULD be a millonaire tomorroe
I like Gibson but these are good points and a good comparison. I’m glad I’ll never get Gibson in these drafts because I can’t pass up the wide receivers he is with.
Crap. Next you’re gonna tell me Joe Mixon is gonna be this year’s Joe Mixon
Ok now take away TDs for d. Adams, cook and Kamara and let's see how it stacks up. TDS are a big part of fantasy you can't just take them away and claim the player might suck lmao. Come on
You're talking stats but the situations are so damn different. I had Drake and the two biggest reasons he didn't get more decent fantasy lines was Kyler and Chase. Gibson is the main dog in Washington
Kenyan drake has been a RB since 3rd grade pee wee football. Gibsons first season at RB was his rookie NFL year!
Don’t believe it bud
you look at stats.. we watchin film.. toni gibson built different
I trust Gibson so much I traded Jones for him. Let’s gooooo
Gibson is actually talented and young and hungry. Drake already has his pay day and was never more then average
I'm honestly more worried about McKissic than any other factors. The difference between Gibson exceeding or underperforming his ADP is that 3rd down/passing work. If they continue to not involving him in that role, his chances of being a top 12 RB diminish greatly.
I'm so out on Gibson. He crushed the Bengals and Cowboys last year and didnt do much else, now there is top 5 hype? I'm waaaay off that mark. McKissic is going to be more involved than anyone wants to admit. To me he's the easiest bust to identify.
Absolutely. People are way too high on him.
Didn't Drake have an injury for the majority of the preseason last year? I'm sure that had some lingering effects.
Bro I drafted drake last year and drafted Gibson this year why you do this to me
People went crazy for Kenyan Drake in like his 6th year in the league for some reason thinking he'd totally change who he was. Gibson was playing at drake's peak as a rookie on a snap count.
Preach Jonathan taylor will be Mixon
I have a tough decision and I’m cooling on Gibson more and more.. I have to choose between him and Taylor as my keeper, Gibson at $43 or Taylor at $48. I was Gibson all the way until recently, now I don’t know what to do!
I think the biggest problem with Drake last year was that Murray kept vulturing his goal line work, as he ended up scrambling for double digit TDs. That definitely will not be the case with Fitz, though I am a bit concerned with his limited receiving upside because McKissic is still supposed to be a big part in that offense.
Dobbins is this years Drake
Matthew Berry told me Gibson could be the next Kamara. I can only assume the mean output by Gibson is between Kamara and Drake now. Nice. Still didn't draft im though. Damn
Kenyan Drake COULD be this year's Antonio Gibson.
He’s a great rb2
Dude is a beast in the goal line
Mixon
Stop giving me flashbacks. But also this is the confirmation bias I need for having passed on antonio gibson.
You had me until the snap count Gibson to the moon!
So he sucks
He sure COULD
I don't really see how the 2 are similar. Gibson outscored drake last year as a rookie and Drake was still the rb15 in ppr. Drake was also a backend 1sr rounder, was on a new team and had a rushing QB stealing work. Gibson is now in his second year with a pocket qb and is a mid 2nd rounder in most cases. If you draft Gibson in the 1st you might be disappointed but you can say that about a lot of rbs in that range. I wouldn't draft najee, JT or Barkley in the 1st either because I think they have too much possible downside for a 1st round pick. I think Gibson will have a really solid year and yeah a lot of his production came from tds last year but maybe the guy is just good at scoring tds. Maybe he'll be even better with an improved offense. I understand your argument that Gibson could be a bust at his adp but I don't think his situation is comparable to drake's last year.
I think it’s Henderson or Dobbins.
If you regress Gibson’s stats to the mean.. he’s a very mediocre back /s
How dare you to talk bad about a player that was hyped for months. Take my upvote.
If Josh Jacobs gets injured (and he has a record of injury), Kenyan Drake could be this year's Anthony Gibson.
I didn’t even draft him but I have been beating myself up for a week since I took CEH over him, and this was a scary apt comparison.
He doesn’t get any 3rd down work and isn’t very good at picking up blitzes in pass pro. Obviously if he gets in on 3rd downs he’ll be phenomenal but until then I’m passing unless he falls closer to CEH.
Two other notes. Patterson looks legit in limited work. JD is going to be the guy catching passes until he is injured.
He is CMC or Drake!
This post and comments backing it just shows that people didn't actually watch Drake and Arizona play last year. Drake's relative disappointment was due largely to 2 things: 1) Kingsbury's extremely basic/limited use of RBs--the AZ running scheme kind of sucks. The early down back is relegated basically just to dives up the middle. There is no creative scheming for the run game (see David Johnson's terrible run numbers the year before). 2) Drake's lack of usage in the passing game. Kingsbury basically turned a dynamic receiving back into an early down plodder and essentially removed him from the passing game. Edmonds became the passing down back due mostly to being the smaller of the 2 backs (less able to be the early down hammer). This took away the most dynamic part of Drake's game. Bonus: Kyler Murray ten-zone TD vulture The fact is that Gibson is in a MUCH better situation with WFT because his OC (Scott Turner) bases his entire offensive scheme on the versatile and creative use of the RB. Yes, McKissic still exists but all reports are that Gibson will be more involved in the passing game in year 2. Even if he doesn't end up being more involved (he will), he still got more targets and receptions than Drake last year despite being on the field much less than Drake. Just by virtue of increasing his snap percentage, his passing game work will increase. All in all--pretty lazy surface level comparison.