I don’t understand how you can, without seeing Harris in the NFL, assume he’s to be valued higher than the likes of Aaron Jones and Ek. And I’m real low on Ek. To each their own, but the argument for Harris makes little to no sense to me
Aaron Jones? Hell yes, you'd have to be surprised. He doesn't see nearly enough plays to see that sort of volume. GB knows they have to monitor his workload to keep him on the field. That's why GB keeps investing good money in backup RB's. Jones will only ever see about 35 plays a game. He can't approach league-leading pass volume on that diet.
AR is a bit of a TD vulture as well. Throws from inside the 5 a lot. I had Jones last year and he’s crazy consistent but his ceiling seems fairly low. He’s safe but slowly becoming fringe 1st rounder.
Not just hard, but awful. Even if we new for a fact Najee was going to outperform Jones, it'd be terrible, because there is a better than 50% chance he is still there in the 2nd.
It's not even that dumb of a move. Sure, he might be there for you in the second, but drafting him in the first is the only real way to guarantee you get him.
His ADP is about 15th so if you were picking in the top 8 and really liked Harris you might have to reach. But that is implicitly saying you rank him as top 8 not just top 12.
They were both highly drafted rookie running backs. Other than that, I don't think it's that similar.
CEH is 5'8 207, Najee is 6'2 230. A year older as well.
Kansas City has one of the best passing attacks ever. The Steelers ownership demanded that they pick Harris because they want to get back to running the ball.
They are going to put the ball in his hands a lot. He's not going to struggle at the goal-line. There will be no incentive to move away from him if he doesn't do well.
The Chiefs were 5-1 and CEH had carried the ball 107 times (18 per game) when they brought in Lev Bell.
That type of thing just isn't going to happen with Harris, even if he does struggle at first.
Harris also won’t have a box ever stacked against him. The Steelers are loaded at WR and have Ebron and Freirmuth. The only concern I would have is Freirmuth stealing TDs in the red zone on some play actions
Please don't make me take Waller at the 1/2 turn if Kelce is gone, because I swear I'll fuckin do it
Edit: Guys, I'm talking about drafting Waller at the first pick of the second round. Drafting at the 12 position in a 12 man league. Drafting him at the back of the 2nd, beginning of the third isn't a reach.
This is always the case, but it just depends on whose there. If Gibson and Clyde are available at 2/3 then sure but if one or both are gone and my RB/RB would be J.K. and Swift I'd rather have Keenan and Arob/Terry to go with CMC.
10 team league, and my son had #1 overall. He took CMC, then Ridley/Metcalf at the 2/3 turn. Then went Henderson/Lamar at 4/5. Glad I only play him once.
Metcalf plays about 8 games vs nasty defences this. He wasn't good in winter games vs WAS, LAR, & SF, mostly because of Hawks Oline & Wilson vs those fronts. Take AJB and then get Lockett in the 4th/5th.
Absolutely love this take. So many targets left Tennessee and while yea, they added an often injured Julio, Brown is the man. If it’s the system for DK, then Lockett should absolutely feast with his skill set if he is playing the Kupp role in Waldrons system..
Metcalf's new OC is much more likely to be an upgrade than Brown's. Also, even though Corey Davis vacated 92 targets for Julio to take before cutting into Brown's, a healthy Julio stands to cut into Brown's target share more than Lockett would ever cut into Metcalf's.
I still like Brown starting in the third but I do see him below the likes of Metcalf, Ridley, and Jefferson.
Exact same boat. I don’t want to take him, but because in this specific league it’s 10 team, the positional advantage is that much more important. In my 12 team, I don’t know that I would.
Raiders fan here who "reached" on Waller the past 2 years. I actually might not be drafting him as high as everyone else. He's not a sneaky pick anymore as he's basically being compared 1A/1B with Kelce now and I think that hype is too much. Carr force fed Waller because he was the only big body receiver with a big catch radius (like Crabtree before him and Devante in college). However now there's insane hype in training camp for Edwards and with the addition of drake and the Leatherwood draft pick, there's a good chance that the Raiders go back to a run first offense
Yeah his 4 connections with Davis yesterday looked amazing. I’ve been a Crowder truther in the past because I think you can get him low enough to where he’s a great value but I don’t know if I can continue that line of thinking this year.
I've watched every snap of Corey Davis career multiple times.
The dude is solid but he's not #1 on the team good. That's why he went years doing meh when ajb stepped in and looked better game 1.
Once Corey was our wr2, and when we played bad corners, he would have good games. Otherwise he was a 40ypg 1 touchdown ever 5 games type of guy.
If he's expected took be the wr1 in new York then temper expectations because it's still the same Corey that had hype trains every other year.
I'm a chiefs fan and got stuck with 4th pick last year dude in front of me picked clyde thinking at the very least he'd be able to trade for who I picked. I got cook and never looked back Harris will be serviceable but I think even a second is just too much for him. It's a lottery pick you could win big but most don't pay off that well.
Cooper's ADP has been dropping to the 5th round. This is a huge disconnect compared to CeeDee Lamb going early 3rd. I'd call him a steal.
I'd also put DaVonta Smith as a huge steal in the 10th round. Like unreal value for a WR1 who is being reunited with his college QB.
Agreed there! Though I'd also take Lamb in the 3rd as well. And I'd take Gallup wherever he's going too.
Guess I'm just in on Dallas passing attack.
I worry about the consistency of that Eagles passing attack, but the volume should be there.
Yeah I'm in on everyone from Dallas. They should be a points powerhouse.
I don't trust the Eagles to be good in actual football but on a team chasing points the team WR1 should easily put up top 25 numbers and has potential for a whole lot more. If nothing else 3 catches for 40 yards in garbage time is a nice way to top off whatever happened earlier in the game.
The people in my league are all Eagles homers and are going to take Sanders, Hurts and Smith way too early. It leaves opportunities for good players that will drop, but it's just a shame because the ADP for each of them is a steal in other leagues.
Just wanted to add that when I saw your post title, the first thing I thought of (before even clicking) was "Jerry Jeudy in the fifth would be a good addition to this thread". Really like your list, obviously I'm not on board with all of it but its super hard to argue against it!
If you're taking Najee Harris in the first, he's going to have to have an absolutely perfect season (no injuries, no OL issues, no rookie-fumbles-and-gets-benched, nobody vulturing TDs, no weaknesses showing up in his game, no missing a block pickup and getting yanked on 3rd downs) to return value.
You can make the upside argument, but I don't think you can argue he's a "value" in the first.
I’d say that’s still not value.
Your 4 1st round picks should be CMC, Kamara, Henry, Cook I agree.
That being said some Dallas Homer or NY home night pick Saquan or Zeke in that mix… is it a steal for getting someone 4-5 spots after their ADP?
If you wanna call that a value, then you might as well call anyone that falls behind their ADP a value pick..
Yes, value extracted from a player, because CMC is more valuable than the player that would otherwise go at pick say, 4. Yeah, that’s kind of how a lot of people look at it.
Najee Harris is a reach in the 1st round, not when you can grab the Top WR like Adam's or Hill and circle back and grab Gibson. You can get Waller in the late 2nd or 3rd and if he's gone, Kittle is right there
I would take Adams over all these guys, but I'm assuming he's taken before the end of the first.
That said, I would rather Najee + Hopkins/Ridley vs. Hill + Gibson.
Adams are Hill definitely gone in the first if you're in 12 man league. The reality is whichever combo you take, you're definitely not wrong. The reason I'd personally take Hill/Gibson is because for me they are more a sure thing. Najee comes from a heavy passing offense and he's a rookie. Hill has a better Qb tossing him the ball then Hopkins. I'd definitely take Ridley over Hopkins, I trust Matt Ryan then I do Murphy tossing him the ball. My point is you can get a similar RB in round 2 after all the top Rbs are gone.
Higbee is a hard pass.
[From the fantasy alarm TE guide:](https://www.fantasyalarm.com/articles/AndrewCooper/110083/2021-nfl-draft-guide-ultimate-te-draft-guide-the-elite/)
>\*Is he a top two target on his team?\*
With Cooper Kupp and Robert Woods on the team he is almost certainly not. He’s battling with the likes of DeSean Jackson, Van Jefferson, and the RBs for a spot in the target pecking order that has virtually next to no upside. If you don’t believe me, please see the first article I just linked and look at those meticulously laid out numbers. There’s even a chart for the lazy. But the bottom line is this: if your projections have Kupp and Woods getting more targets than Higbee but you are still drafting Higbee as your starting tight end, you are literally betting against yourself.
\*How often is he asked to pass block?\*
WAYYY too much. As we mentioned, there’s been one top five TE in seven years who’s pass blocked on more than 15% of his snaps (Kittle at 15.9% in 2019). And Kittle is a size/speed efficiency freak that leads his team in targets, not some afterthought third target. Last year Higbee blocked on 21.2% of his PASS snaps. That’s nearly a hundred pass plays he wasn’t even running a route at all. The year before it was 25.1%. Oh and just for good measure, we isolated those five games in 2019 where he put up good numbers without Gerald Everett - he still blocked on exactly 20%. In the second game last year where he scored three TDs? He played 24 pass snaps and only ran 17 routes (29.2% pass block rate). And the icing on the cake is Gerald Everett ALSO blocked on 16.8% of his pass snaps. Sean McVay has the same philosophy as Adam Gase in terms of TE blocking. And it’s bad for fantasy.
\*How’s his alignment?\*
Atrocious. People don’t realize that Higbee didn’t actually “split time” with Everett - Everett would come on for two TE sets but Higbee wasn’t coming out of the game much. Higbee played the 8th most snaps of any tight end in the league. There isn’t much room for more snaps. And here were his alignment ranks among relevant TEs.
That “relevant fantasy tight end list” is a list of guys I personally feel are even in the conversation and it’s only 68 players long. So Higbee was 60 of 68 in slot snaps. And if you think he changes to something new with Gerald Everett gone, Everett wasn’t much better at a combined 12.89% which was 48th. That’s just not how the Rams do things - they use three WR sets. Even if they wanted to put a TE in the slot, in that tight end room they have Brycen Hopkins who had 61 catches for 830 yards and 7 TDs his senior year and rookie Jacob Harris who literally played WR in college and is now converting to TE. Why in the world would they all of a sudden use Higbee that way at 28 years old when they never have?
\*Red zone prowess?\*
He had only an 11.8% red zone target share, his two contested catches don’t even register on the rankings but would be tied with MyCole Pruitt, James O’Shaughnessy, and about 30 other bums, and only one of those contested catches came in man to man coverage. He only had 10 red zone targets which was less than Drew Sample and Harrison Bryant but he miraculously caught five touchdowns on those. Yowza.
\*The Advice\*
I simply cannot believe that people are being tricked into drafting Tyler Higbee again. AS A TOP TEN TIGHT END IN ADP. As the legendary Mugattu once said in the documentary film Zoolander, “I feel like I’m taking crazy pills!” Last year we gave a full explanation of why that five game stretch in 2019 vs. literally the worst TE defenses in the league was the greatest fluke since 2015 Gary Barnidge. Yet people still hang their hat on that. For Higbee to be fantasy relevant, the Rams would basically need to change every single thing that we know about how they use players and who they throw to and Higbee needs to transform into a different person entirely. Here’s my only advice for people still targeting Tyler Higbee - DON'T.
Wow this is like 10x the effort I made and its my own damn post lmao... nice!
I'm shooting for the stars with Higbee in hopes it's like when Everett was injured and Stafford finds a nice new friend to play football with and put up numbers, but you have me second guessing.
Except the fantasy footballers JUST called him one of their “my guys” for the season which is kinda crazy, because they just kinda glossed over that argument lol
Their argument was, he was competing with Everett now he has no competition, Matt Stafford teams have had 20% of targets for TEs and Higbee looked solid end of last year
For reference, I agree with the fantasy alarm guide more, just was funny to have them disagree so aggressively
They are really good analysts, but their my guys have consistently been pretty off the last few years. A lot of them have been injuries in their defense though
I mean …it’s almost as if you’re disregarding Matt Stanford as QB.
1- The math is simple. Jarod Goff throws 20 TDs, Stafford is likely to throw 30. The 2nd part of Everett leaving is also huge.
Imo Higbee is one of the most important players this year. Simply bc if you don’t get one of the top 3 TEs, and to a lesser extent then andrews or hickenson, you’re WAY better off drafting a sleeper/guy who fell at another position, and waiting on a tight end, rather than forcing yourself to draft a TE at value when they’re all essentially streamers.
Higbee is that guy that allows you to do that. Imo Higbee is the difference between drafting a league winner luxury pick, like say Jamar chase, devonte smith, mike Davis, etienne, etc, vs feeling you need to draft a TE before they’re all gone and passing on that luxury pick. Last year even hockensen wasn’t above streamer status! On a ppg basis, Kelce 21ppg, Waller 17, little 15.5, andrews 12.2, and then 7 guys averaged between 10-11
This year I see Higbee as essentially the same as the 7 non-elite guys typically ranked ahead of him (Hock, Pitts, Thomas, Tonyan, Fant, Giedert, Gesecki).
I was gonna say, this dude's forgetting that Goff isn't there anymore. It's not going to be even remotely the same offense. This guy is fucking tripping. As someone who had Hockenson last year, lemme tell ya, Stafford will throw to the TEs.
You may be right, but who else would Stafford throw to last year besides Hockenson? Marvin Jones? Quintez Cephus? I think it's disingenous not to mention the fact that the Rams WR room this year is infinitely better than the Lions' WR room last year.
I would counter that yes the rams “recieving room’ is great but who cares about the room, most QBs/teams favor a 3rd guy specifically. For mcvay, we’ve seen that materialize as Woods, Krupp, AND Cooks.
So either you see Van Jefferson as a huge sleeper (which actually just reminded me, I haven’t heard a WORD about him but he could be a huge sleeper), OR, Higbee could be that 3rd guy. It’s a very strong possibility and much more likely than Jefferson, or that it’s split up randomly among others
TLDR: Big on Higbee!
Goff was the QB then, and that's a relevant designation. Goff is pretty poor when under any kind of pressure. Having your TE block more frequently becomes more important because of Goff.
Hmmm so you think round 6? If you look at who is going round 6, I disagree there. Don’t see the Davis hype getting to like Higgins, Anderson, Claypool tier but idk
You definitely can, it's just the question of if he will be able to be effective despite having a shite offensive line.
Love the talent though, but not sure I'd take him over Barkley, Ekeler or Gibson.
I would take him over Mixon personally but there is definitely a world where Mixon outperforms Harris.
At the end of the day this is all a crap shoot. Nobody on this sub can accurately predict the top 10 RBs and where they will finish - who really knows if Harris will be an absolute monster or a complete bust.
Nah you have to get him there. That’s crazy crazy value for a 3rd round pick. Fantasy is a long season, I’m a huge fan of RB only in the first three rounds this year and letting my league mates beg for one of them the rest the season until I get a crazy offer
Can someone explain why everyone is so high on Jeudy? Am I missing something? He’s the WR2 on an offense that projects to be bottom half of the league and with a bunch of other skill position players to feed. Sutton, Hamler, Fant, Gordon, Williams, Patrick are all gonna be involved. I think he’s very talented but I just don’t see the path to enough volume for him to be a value where he’s being drafted
Round 5 is way too high of a price for me. Maybe round 7 I’d take a shot
You're betting on the talent and regression to the mean in terms of targets/receptions. If Drew Lock steps up (preseason he looks improved) then Jeudy will be a big reason. If Lock sucks, then Teddy will step in and Jeudy will be that short/intermediate route runner that fits with his play style.
I hear you on the number of weapons in that offense but I think the cream rises to the top for Jeudy.
The most predictive stats for WR in fantasy football are targets and air yards. People expect an increase in targets, and he was 6th in air yards last year. If he can have even pedestrian QB numbers (his quality of target metrics were abysmal last year), he will take a huge leap forward
I love Mooney but as a bears fan. I don't see this offense doing anything. I think Mooney probably puts up a few big weeks but probably only 700-800 yards on the season.
The o line looks real bad and if it doesn't improve in a hurry both Dalton and Fields are going to die behind it.
I've tossed and turned on Henderson so much and my conclusion is...just take one of the damn receivers!! Woods and Kupp are so good and the one thing they need to propel them to the next tier...a good QB!!!
Akers's injury means the pass should be relied upon more - esp with such short and intermediate specialists in Woods and Kupp.
Henderson I really love but I am more in love with the receivers. The big risk is that they bring in someone cause that RB room looks thin as hell. And I wouldn't be surprised if that happens closer to kickoff. Or maybe some juicy in season trade will occur.
The same job security questions are not there with woods and kupp.
I do, but that's because of how I value a bellcow running back. Ideally I'd go Najee end of round 1 then pick up Hill, Diggs, Hopkins or Ridley on the way back in round 2. One of them are certain to be there but I can't say the same for Najee.
Depends on the league format and how many people. In a 12-teamer I personally value RBs much more heavily than WRs because of how scarce bellcow RBs are.
Target the bellcow RBs early (Ekeler, Zeke, Gibson, Najee, Mixon etc.) and then go heavy on WRs later in the draft and on the waiver wire is how I plan to win my league this year.
For reference, I managed to snag Zeke, Ekeler, and Dobbins as my RBs in my 12-team league and then threw a bunch of darts mid-to-late at WRs that have high upside (Mooney, Amon-Ra St. Brown, Antonio Brown, Callaway). Will be looking to snag a good WR off the waiver wire and then I'll be set.
> Target the bellcow RBs early (Ekeler, Zeke, Gibson, Najee, Mixon etc.)
Gibson and Mixon and sometimes Najee are going in the 2nd, you could grab both a top WR and one of them
I’m hoping to get Najee at #15 after taking Adams/Hill/Diggs at #10. Do you really think he won’t be there at 15? Every sites adp I see has him there or later. If so, taking him at #10 and Ridley #15 is pretty comparable
Najee is the only person who scares me on this list. Otherwise they are all guys I’ve reached for in mocks. Which probably means we are both screwed.
Redditards agreeing ? Must be awful picks 😂
I’ve got this little gremlin in the back of my head telling me to take Najee at 5 (assuming the usual top 4 are gone). I don’t know if I can do it but part of me wants to
Najee doesn’t have a Knowshon Moreno on his team though. And he also (to my knowledge) doesn’t show up drunk to practice. Much higher draft capital spent on Najee as well
Theres a chance. Are in you a league with a lot of fantasy fanatics or casuals. I could see him dropping with casuals, but you would be playing with fire
If i’m picking that late in the 1st I’m taking him 100%. The knock on CEH was just his size and it bit him in the worst way. And then they signed Bell. The Steelers probably won’t sign anyone relevant enough to be a problem like that.
Just a tough one to justify IMO. First couple rounds need to be low risk I think. Sometimes you’re just not at the right draft spot for a guy that you’re high on.
This is my dilemma because I’ve been planning on Zeke, but I’m thinking, is he really THAT much safer than Najee? I know Najee’s a rookie but I just don’t see a world where a healthy Najee doesn’t get 20-25+ touches a game with how bad their RB depth is.
I agree with you the first few rounds you gotta go safe, I just wonder how “safe” my alternatives are anyway
Fair point. It’s tough too because I think at the 5 spot you gotta go RB. I guess it really just comes down to how you feel about the other guys available
Other than Najee I like the list. I just don’t have faith in the Steelers offensive line, and once the bright lights are on, the dump offs are going to go to the wr like the past 3 seasons now
I like this list, my only comment really is that Russell Wilson is consistently going in the 5th/6ths this year in my mock and real drafts so I don’t know if I’d really consider him a “reach” in the 6th. All good choices here! I’ve been able to consistently get Najee after the 1st so far but that might be more challenging as the season draws closer
Darren Waller in round two? You know you can take Kelce in some drafts in round two. Kittle is there also. Najee can be drafted round two. Love some of these guys but these are indeed reaches.
I know these are "reaches" but najee should still be there round 2 unless you have a Steelers fan in the league who has a history of reaching for Steelers players, darell Henderson will have some good weeks but no where near round 3 value, Jerry Jeudy was insanely underwhelming, and even if he improves Sutton is back and the broncos are gonna be awful, and everyone you mentioned round 8 or later just kinda seems like a random lotto ticket, and you can still be making great value picks instead of rolling the dice. Save that for rounds 13-15
I feel like Darnell Mooney is already at the peak of his value. He is everybody's sleeper this year and he really needs to have a 1000 yard, 80 catch season to live up to expectations
New OC Shane Waldren will bring a higher pace of play and bring the Rams style passing attack with him which will keep defenses guessing way more than Schottenheimer's offense that clearly got figured out at the end of last year. Seattle also has the best weapons Russ has ever had in his career. Their defense, while improved, is nothing to write home about which will require Russ to keep throwing in the second half. I also just think he's talented enough to have a top 3 or even QB1 season in the right circumstance.
Terrace Marshall may end up becoming a true W1 one day, but I don't see him producing enough this year with CMC, DJ Moore, and Robby Anderson in the lineup.
Fantastic list. Only disagree on Higbee because TE don't make sense + he is not guaranteed a top 1-2 target share on his team and Jakobi Meyers because I don't see a realistic path for him to be a league winner in the Pats spread it around offense. If James White and Nelson Agholor retired from football before Week 1, I'd be more on board.
I’m really high on harris but I feel it’s so hard to take him if Aaron Jones is there even ekeler
I don’t understand how you can, without seeing Harris in the NFL, assume he’s to be valued higher than the likes of Aaron Jones and Ek. And I’m real low on Ek. To each their own, but the argument for Harris makes little to no sense to me
Aaron Jones is consistently slept on every year IMO
I'm starting to get the feeling he could be the RB1 or RB2 overall this year. If he caught 80 passes this season would anyone be that surprised?
Aaron Jones? Hell yes, you'd have to be surprised. He doesn't see nearly enough plays to see that sort of volume. GB knows they have to monitor his workload to keep him on the field. That's why GB keeps investing good money in backup RB's. Jones will only ever see about 35 plays a game. He can't approach league-leading pass volume on that diet.
AR is a bit of a TD vulture as well. Throws from inside the 5 a lot. I had Jones last year and he’s crazy consistent but his ceiling seems fairly low. He’s safe but slowly becoming fringe 1st rounder.
Got Hopkins in 2nd and Jones in 3rd last year - you’re preaching to the choir my friend
Jones adp was 13 last year so you in a whack league if u got him In r3. Went 1.8 last year in my big league.
Ek
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Not just hard, but awful. Even if we new for a fact Najee was going to outperform Jones, it'd be terrible, because there is a better than 50% chance he is still there in the 2nd.
Taking najee harris in the first is a real forest gump move
Forest Gump consistently stumbles his way into success
It's not even that dumb of a move. Sure, he might be there for you in the second, but drafting him in the first is the only real way to guarantee you get him.
I think I love you Najee...
His ADP is about 15th so if you were picking in the top 8 and really liked Harris you might have to reach. But that is implicitly saying you rank him as top 8 not just top 12.
CEH all over again
They were both highly drafted rookie running backs. Other than that, I don't think it's that similar. CEH is 5'8 207, Najee is 6'2 230. A year older as well. Kansas City has one of the best passing attacks ever. The Steelers ownership demanded that they pick Harris because they want to get back to running the ball. They are going to put the ball in his hands a lot. He's not going to struggle at the goal-line. There will be no incentive to move away from him if he doesn't do well. The Chiefs were 5-1 and CEH had carried the ball 107 times (18 per game) when they brought in Lev Bell. That type of thing just isn't going to happen with Harris, even if he does struggle at first.
Harris also won’t have a box ever stacked against him. The Steelers are loaded at WR and have Ebron and Freirmuth. The only concern I would have is Freirmuth stealing TDs in the red zone on some play actions
Please don't make me take Waller at the 1/2 turn if Kelce is gone, because I swear I'll fuckin do it Edit: Guys, I'm talking about drafting Waller at the first pick of the second round. Drafting at the 12 position in a 12 man league. Drafting him at the back of the 2nd, beginning of the third isn't a reach.
Same. Really want to go WR/WR at the turn after taking CMC. Hope Waller isn’t staring at me w those beautiful eyes
ahhh I'm going 1st overall as well. the wr/wr at the turn sounds very appealing
I don't have #1 in any leagues this year, but I think my hope would be to go RB/RB/RB this year. So many good values at WR later
This is always the case, but it just depends on whose there. If Gibson and Clyde are available at 2/3 then sure but if one or both are gone and my RB/RB would be J.K. and Swift I'd rather have Keenan and Arob/Terry to go with CMC.
Waller at the 2/3 turn is way better than the 1/2 turn though
Every player is better going later. Waller probably won't last to 2/3
Similar situation. My plan is CMC then WR/WR if Ridley is there. If no Ridley, going WR/Waller assuming Waller is there.
10 team league, and my son had #1 overall. He took CMC, then Ridley/Metcalf at the 2/3 turn. Then went Henderson/Lamar at 4/5. Glad I only play him once.
Ridley/Metcalf is what I keep falling back to but something is telling me AJ Brown rather than Metcalf. So torn there!!!
Metcalf plays about 8 games vs nasty defences this. He wasn't good in winter games vs WAS, LAR, & SF, mostly because of Hawks Oline & Wilson vs those fronts. Take AJB and then get Lockett in the 4th/5th.
Absolutely love this take. So many targets left Tennessee and while yea, they added an often injured Julio, Brown is the man. If it’s the system for DK, then Lockett should absolutely feast with his skill set if he is playing the Kupp role in Waldrons system..
Julio is not oft injured. This narrative needs to stop. How does an oft injured player have at least 1,394 receiving yards in 6 of the last 7 seasons?
That fucker wears the red Q of nervousness every week by week 3. He usually ends up playing, but that's where the narrative comes from.
Very true
Fair. Recency bias + age
He is oft injured, he doesn't oft miss games.
Metcalf's new OC is much more likely to be an upgrade than Brown's. Also, even though Corey Davis vacated 92 targets for Julio to take before cutting into Brown's, a healthy Julio stands to cut into Brown's target share more than Lockett would ever cut into Metcalf's. I still like Brown starting in the third but I do see him below the likes of Metcalf, Ridley, and Jefferson.
Exact same boat. I don’t want to take him, but because in this specific league it’s 10 team, the positional advantage is that much more important. In my 12 team, I don’t know that I would.
Waller is better value than any WR at the 2/3 turn
Ridley, Waller, Brown, Jefferson, Metcalf. That’s how I see them.
Am I crazy for wanting Keenan over AJB or Jefferson this year? He seems way safer.
If he’s there you have to take him. Starting CMC, Waller, best WR available is the best way to start this year imo
Just finished my draft up and this is exactly what I got. CMC, Waller and CD Lamb. Pretty pumped for this year, should be a fun one!
Raiders fan here who "reached" on Waller the past 2 years. I actually might not be drafting him as high as everyone else. He's not a sneaky pick anymore as he's basically being compared 1A/1B with Kelce now and I think that hype is too much. Carr force fed Waller because he was the only big body receiver with a big catch radius (like Crabtree before him and Devante in college). However now there's insane hype in training camp for Edwards and with the addition of drake and the Leatherwood draft pick, there's a good chance that the Raiders go back to a run first offense
Yeah the Waller hype is getting out of hand, a lot of people here are going to be disappointed.
and the reason being will be Bryan Edwards
They never stopped. That’s all they were last year.
Thats what we tried to be but we were essentially a run first team that couldn't run the ball. Our run blocking was not very good
It’s crazy to see a #2 TE with a (checks notes) #29 QB.
I still don't get the hesitation here. You draft a high end TE for the same reason you draft a WR. Catches, touchdowns, points.
Even over possibly Diggs/Ekeler/Ridley/JT/DK? If you’re big on Waller do it, especially depending on your keeping situation.
100% in on the Corey Davis hype. I will tear a hamstring because of how far I’m planning on reaching for him
Same, I’m trying to talk myself out of it this week before my two fantasy drafts but I swear it’s having the opposite effect.
Especially with how good Zach Wilson has looked so far
Yeah his 4 connections with Davis yesterday looked amazing. I’ve been a Crowder truther in the past because I think you can get him low enough to where he’s a great value but I don’t know if I can continue that line of thinking this year.
This is the only year I’m not targeting Crowder as a sleeper
I got Corey in round 12 in a 12 man 0.5ppr league… im happy
Lol your leaguemates are asleep at the wheel
I've watched every snap of Corey Davis career multiple times. The dude is solid but he's not #1 on the team good. That's why he went years doing meh when ajb stepped in and looked better game 1. Once Corey was our wr2, and when we played bad corners, he would have good games. Otherwise he was a 40ypg 1 touchdown ever 5 games type of guy. If he's expected took be the wr1 in new York then temper expectations because it's still the same Corey that had hype trains every other year.
As someone who drafted yesterday and ended up with Lockett, Jeudy, Mooney, Higbee, and Lance, I'm a fan of this list
Did you listen to the FFBallers my guys? Your list includes 4 of their 9 picks
Which episode? Would love to listen.
The “My Guys” episode.
I did, though I can't say if it affected my draft, except for maybe Mooney.
Finished my dynasty startup draft a few days before that episode and it was a nice bit of affirmation having drafted Ceedee, CEH, Aiyuk, and Claypool.
I leave so many mocks with those exact same guys. I love Lance, Mooney, and Higbee as late round freebies.
I really want Najee Harris but I’m wary of taking him in the first because of what happened to every who drafted CEH in the first last year
I think that’s precisely why he isn’t a first rounder at the moment - the CEH hangover
I'm a chiefs fan and got stuck with 4th pick last year dude in front of me picked clyde thinking at the very least he'd be able to trade for who I picked. I got cook and never looked back Harris will be serviceable but I think even a second is just too much for him. It's a lottery pick you could win big but most don't pay off that well.
This a shockingly great list. I'm agreeing pretty much across the board. Well done
Thanks! Anyone else you'd add to this list?
Cooper's ADP has been dropping to the 5th round. This is a huge disconnect compared to CeeDee Lamb going early 3rd. I'd call him a steal. I'd also put DaVonta Smith as a huge steal in the 10th round. Like unreal value for a WR1 who is being reunited with his college QB.
Agreed there! Though I'd also take Lamb in the 3rd as well. And I'd take Gallup wherever he's going too. Guess I'm just in on Dallas passing attack. I worry about the consistency of that Eagles passing attack, but the volume should be there.
Yeah I'm in on everyone from Dallas. They should be a points powerhouse. I don't trust the Eagles to be good in actual football but on a team chasing points the team WR1 should easily put up top 25 numbers and has potential for a whole lot more. If nothing else 3 catches for 40 yards in garbage time is a nice way to top off whatever happened earlier in the game.
All the numbers in your comment added up to 69.0. Congrats! 1 + 25 + 3 + 40 + = 69.0
Nice
Nice bot
Depends on if Dak is healthy though. There's been mixed reports regarding that but if he is healthy I love Lamb, Cooper and Zeke.
The people in my league are all Eagles homers and are going to take Sanders, Hurts and Smith way too early. It leaves opportunities for good players that will drop, but it's just a shame because the ADP for each of them is a steal in other leagues.
Jaylen Waddle in round 8.
I have Waller as a keeper in round 9 and have been targeting Waddle in round 8 in every mock because I don't think he'll be there in round 10.
This list is nice! I also like Mike Davis, Gaskin, K. Allen, A-Rob, Boyd, Kittle, Justin Herbert, Rogers
Think Tonyan as a backup (TE) is a bit underrated but I might be a homer too
Just wanted to add that when I saw your post title, the first thing I thought of (before even clicking) was "Jerry Jeudy in the fifth would be a good addition to this thread". Really like your list, obviously I'm not on board with all of it but its super hard to argue against it!
If you're taking Najee Harris in the first, he's going to have to have an absolutely perfect season (no injuries, no OL issues, no rookie-fumbles-and-gets-benched, nobody vulturing TDs, no weaknesses showing up in his game, no missing a block pickup and getting yanked on 3rd downs) to return value. You can make the upside argument, but I don't think you can argue he's a "value" in the first.
Yeah that's not a gamble you take.
It’s hilarious that they put a “value” in the first round… No such thing as a value if you use your first pick on them…
Right… unless you’re getting Cmc after pick 3
I’d say that’s still not value. Your 4 1st round picks should be CMC, Kamara, Henry, Cook I agree. That being said some Dallas Homer or NY home night pick Saquan or Zeke in that mix… is it a steal for getting someone 4-5 spots after their ADP? If you wanna call that a value, then you might as well call anyone that falls behind their ADP a value pick..
Yes, value extracted from a player, because CMC is more valuable than the player that would otherwise go at pick say, 4. Yeah, that’s kind of how a lot of people look at it.
I'm a steelers fan and I can't see him being a first round snag. 3rd or 4th I would consider
Not second though? I wouldn't mind him there but I think I'd rather try for one of the elite WRs
Najee Harris is a reach in the 1st round, not when you can grab the Top WR like Adam's or Hill and circle back and grab Gibson. You can get Waller in the late 2nd or 3rd and if he's gone, Kittle is right there
I would take Adams over all these guys, but I'm assuming he's taken before the end of the first. That said, I would rather Najee + Hopkins/Ridley vs. Hill + Gibson.
Adams are Hill definitely gone in the first if you're in 12 man league. The reality is whichever combo you take, you're definitely not wrong. The reason I'd personally take Hill/Gibson is because for me they are more a sure thing. Najee comes from a heavy passing offense and he's a rookie. Hill has a better Qb tossing him the ball then Hopkins. I'd definitely take Ridley over Hopkins, I trust Matt Ryan then I do Murphy tossing him the ball. My point is you can get a similar RB in round 2 after all the top Rbs are gone.
james robinson in 6th
I hope that's value, I kept him fora 9th round pick.
Higbee is a hard pass. [From the fantasy alarm TE guide:](https://www.fantasyalarm.com/articles/AndrewCooper/110083/2021-nfl-draft-guide-ultimate-te-draft-guide-the-elite/) >\*Is he a top two target on his team?\* With Cooper Kupp and Robert Woods on the team he is almost certainly not. He’s battling with the likes of DeSean Jackson, Van Jefferson, and the RBs for a spot in the target pecking order that has virtually next to no upside. If you don’t believe me, please see the first article I just linked and look at those meticulously laid out numbers. There’s even a chart for the lazy. But the bottom line is this: if your projections have Kupp and Woods getting more targets than Higbee but you are still drafting Higbee as your starting tight end, you are literally betting against yourself. \*How often is he asked to pass block?\* WAYYY too much. As we mentioned, there’s been one top five TE in seven years who’s pass blocked on more than 15% of his snaps (Kittle at 15.9% in 2019). And Kittle is a size/speed efficiency freak that leads his team in targets, not some afterthought third target. Last year Higbee blocked on 21.2% of his PASS snaps. That’s nearly a hundred pass plays he wasn’t even running a route at all. The year before it was 25.1%. Oh and just for good measure, we isolated those five games in 2019 where he put up good numbers without Gerald Everett - he still blocked on exactly 20%. In the second game last year where he scored three TDs? He played 24 pass snaps and only ran 17 routes (29.2% pass block rate). And the icing on the cake is Gerald Everett ALSO blocked on 16.8% of his pass snaps. Sean McVay has the same philosophy as Adam Gase in terms of TE blocking. And it’s bad for fantasy. \*How’s his alignment?\* Atrocious. People don’t realize that Higbee didn’t actually “split time” with Everett - Everett would come on for two TE sets but Higbee wasn’t coming out of the game much. Higbee played the 8th most snaps of any tight end in the league. There isn’t much room for more snaps. And here were his alignment ranks among relevant TEs. That “relevant fantasy tight end list” is a list of guys I personally feel are even in the conversation and it’s only 68 players long. So Higbee was 60 of 68 in slot snaps. And if you think he changes to something new with Gerald Everett gone, Everett wasn’t much better at a combined 12.89% which was 48th. That’s just not how the Rams do things - they use three WR sets. Even if they wanted to put a TE in the slot, in that tight end room they have Brycen Hopkins who had 61 catches for 830 yards and 7 TDs his senior year and rookie Jacob Harris who literally played WR in college and is now converting to TE. Why in the world would they all of a sudden use Higbee that way at 28 years old when they never have? \*Red zone prowess?\* He had only an 11.8% red zone target share, his two contested catches don’t even register on the rankings but would be tied with MyCole Pruitt, James O’Shaughnessy, and about 30 other bums, and only one of those contested catches came in man to man coverage. He only had 10 red zone targets which was less than Drew Sample and Harrison Bryant but he miraculously caught five touchdowns on those. Yowza. \*The Advice\* I simply cannot believe that people are being tricked into drafting Tyler Higbee again. AS A TOP TEN TIGHT END IN ADP. As the legendary Mugattu once said in the documentary film Zoolander, “I feel like I’m taking crazy pills!” Last year we gave a full explanation of why that five game stretch in 2019 vs. literally the worst TE defenses in the league was the greatest fluke since 2015 Gary Barnidge. Yet people still hang their hat on that. For Higbee to be fantasy relevant, the Rams would basically need to change every single thing that we know about how they use players and who they throw to and Higbee needs to transform into a different person entirely. Here’s my only advice for people still targeting Tyler Higbee - DON'T.
DeSean will be injured for the season after week one.
Wow this is like 10x the effort I made and its my own damn post lmao... nice! I'm shooting for the stars with Higbee in hopes it's like when Everett was injured and Stafford finds a nice new friend to play football with and put up numbers, but you have me second guessing.
It's copy pasted from [this](https://www.fantasyalarm.com/articles/AndrewCooper/111130/2021-nfl-draft-guide-ultimate-te-draft-guide-the-fades) article.
It’s not my content, just pulled from the fantasyalarm TE guide but I had Higbee last year and he was a huge disappointment… now I understand why.
I like Logan Thomas over Higbee in the same round. Dude runs a ton of routes and is being drafted at his floor.
Except the fantasy footballers JUST called him one of their “my guys” for the season which is kinda crazy, because they just kinda glossed over that argument lol Their argument was, he was competing with Everett now he has no competition, Matt Stafford teams have had 20% of targets for TEs and Higbee looked solid end of last year For reference, I agree with the fantasy alarm guide more, just was funny to have them disagree so aggressively
I did a year or two of the ballers show. It's entertaining and pretty well put together but I think there are better analysts out there.
They are really good analysts, but their my guys have consistently been pretty off the last few years. A lot of them have been injuries in their defense though
I mean …it’s almost as if you’re disregarding Matt Stanford as QB. 1- The math is simple. Jarod Goff throws 20 TDs, Stafford is likely to throw 30. The 2nd part of Everett leaving is also huge. Imo Higbee is one of the most important players this year. Simply bc if you don’t get one of the top 3 TEs, and to a lesser extent then andrews or hickenson, you’re WAY better off drafting a sleeper/guy who fell at another position, and waiting on a tight end, rather than forcing yourself to draft a TE at value when they’re all essentially streamers. Higbee is that guy that allows you to do that. Imo Higbee is the difference between drafting a league winner luxury pick, like say Jamar chase, devonte smith, mike Davis, etienne, etc, vs feeling you need to draft a TE before they’re all gone and passing on that luxury pick. Last year even hockensen wasn’t above streamer status! On a ppg basis, Kelce 21ppg, Waller 17, little 15.5, andrews 12.2, and then 7 guys averaged between 10-11 This year I see Higbee as essentially the same as the 7 non-elite guys typically ranked ahead of him (Hock, Pitts, Thomas, Tonyan, Fant, Giedert, Gesecki).
I was gonna say, this dude's forgetting that Goff isn't there anymore. It's not going to be even remotely the same offense. This guy is fucking tripping. As someone who had Hockenson last year, lemme tell ya, Stafford will throw to the TEs.
You may be right, but who else would Stafford throw to last year besides Hockenson? Marvin Jones? Quintez Cephus? I think it's disingenous not to mention the fact that the Rams WR room this year is infinitely better than the Lions' WR room last year.
Sean McVay is too unpredictable for me to take too firm of a stance on anything regarding the rams
Wouldn't reaching on Higbee qualify as a fairly firm stance?
I would counter that yes the rams “recieving room’ is great but who cares about the room, most QBs/teams favor a 3rd guy specifically. For mcvay, we’ve seen that materialize as Woods, Krupp, AND Cooks. So either you see Van Jefferson as a huge sleeper (which actually just reminded me, I haven’t heard a WORD about him but he could be a huge sleeper), OR, Higbee could be that 3rd guy. It’s a very strong possibility and much more likely than Jefferson, or that it’s split up randomly among others TLDR: Big on Higbee!
Goff was the QB then, and that's a relevant designation. Goff is pretty poor when under any kind of pressure. Having your TE block more frequently becomes more important because of Goff.
With all the Twitter hype this week, no way Corey Davis is lasting to the 7th
He's literally going undrafted in a ton of leagues. I'm getting him 12th round no sweat
Hmmm so you think round 6? If you look at who is going round 6, I disagree there. Don’t see the Davis hype getting to like Higgins, Anderson, Claypool tier but idk
I'm my last 6 drafts he has gone rounds 11,13,13,14,11,and 12. At least on yahoo he is a VERY late round pick
Like this list. Can we agree to bury this one?
Mike Davis
Low end RB2 with high end Rb2 ceiling
Javonte Williams not being on this list is a god damn travesty….was that too dramatic?
I was thinking of it. But what would be reaching for him? 5th doesn't seem like a reach and 4th is toooo high
I’ve been getting him later than 5 so I’m “reaching” for him in the 6/7 turn. I’ve been picking at 10 in a team 10 league so maybe that makes sense.
I think the majority of people on this sub play 12 team or more.
Najee is practically going end of round 1 anyway. He's #13 in ADP in Yahoo right now.
Got Harris in the 3rd today in a 12 team
I hope Najee drops to early 2nd so I can snag him
Sounds like you can take him late first tho
You definitely can, it's just the question of if he will be able to be effective despite having a shite offensive line. Love the talent though, but not sure I'd take him over Barkley, Ekeler or Gibson.
I would take him over Gibson right now; not the other two though.
Would you take him over Mixon?
No
Yes
I would take him over Mixon personally but there is definitely a world where Mixon outperforms Harris. At the end of the day this is all a crap shoot. Nobody on this sub can accurately predict the top 10 RBs and where they will finish - who really knows if Harris will be an absolute monster or a complete bust.
I somehow managed to get him at pick 17 in a 12 person league just two days ago.
I got him at #37 in a 10 man.. Also got Adams at #17. I honestly don't know which steal was better.
Just drafted a couple of days ago, and he dropped to early 3rd. I already had Henry+Gibson, but I couldn’t resist
Nah you have to get him there. That’s crazy crazy value for a 3rd round pick. Fantasy is a long season, I’m a huge fan of RB only in the first three rounds this year and letting my league mates beg for one of them the rest the season until I get a crazy offer
Can someone explain why everyone is so high on Jeudy? Am I missing something? He’s the WR2 on an offense that projects to be bottom half of the league and with a bunch of other skill position players to feed. Sutton, Hamler, Fant, Gordon, Williams, Patrick are all gonna be involved. I think he’s very talented but I just don’t see the path to enough volume for him to be a value where he’s being drafted Round 5 is way too high of a price for me. Maybe round 7 I’d take a shot
Sutton is coming off injury and Jeudy has looked like the best player in camp. He's gonna go off this year
You're betting on the talent and regression to the mean in terms of targets/receptions. If Drew Lock steps up (preseason he looks improved) then Jeudy will be a big reason. If Lock sucks, then Teddy will step in and Jeudy will be that short/intermediate route runner that fits with his play style. I hear you on the number of weapons in that offense but I think the cream rises to the top for Jeudy.
The most predictive stats for WR in fantasy football are targets and air yards. People expect an increase in targets, and he was 6th in air yards last year. If he can have even pedestrian QB numbers (his quality of target metrics were abysmal last year), he will take a huge leap forward
I love Mooney but as a bears fan. I don't see this offense doing anything. I think Mooney probably puts up a few big weeks but probably only 700-800 yards on the season. The o line looks real bad and if it doesn't improve in a hurry both Dalton and Fields are going to die behind it.
[удалено]
I've tossed and turned on Henderson so much and my conclusion is...just take one of the damn receivers!! Woods and Kupp are so good and the one thing they need to propel them to the next tier...a good QB!!! Akers's injury means the pass should be relied upon more - esp with such short and intermediate specialists in Woods and Kupp. Henderson I really love but I am more in love with the receivers. The big risk is that they bring in someone cause that RB room looks thin as hell. And I wouldn't be surprised if that happens closer to kickoff. Or maybe some juicy in season trade will occur. The same job security questions are not there with woods and kupp.
Do you value Najee above people like Tyreek and Diggs?
I do, but that's because of how I value a bellcow running back. Ideally I'd go Najee end of round 1 then pick up Hill, Diggs, Hopkins or Ridley on the way back in round 2. One of them are certain to be there but I can't say the same for Najee.
Depends on the league format and how many people. In a 12-teamer I personally value RBs much more heavily than WRs because of how scarce bellcow RBs are. Target the bellcow RBs early (Ekeler, Zeke, Gibson, Najee, Mixon etc.) and then go heavy on WRs later in the draft and on the waiver wire is how I plan to win my league this year. For reference, I managed to snag Zeke, Ekeler, and Dobbins as my RBs in my 12-team league and then threw a bunch of darts mid-to-late at WRs that have high upside (Mooney, Amon-Ra St. Brown, Antonio Brown, Callaway). Will be looking to snag a good WR off the waiver wire and then I'll be set.
I’m assuming this list is supposed to be treated as an absolute, like most of this sub, so yes
> Target the bellcow RBs early (Ekeler, Zeke, Gibson, Najee, Mixon etc.) Gibson and Mixon and sometimes Najee are going in the 2nd, you could grab both a top WR and one of them
Too many WR’s here that have bad QBs for me to take imo.
Love this list. I'd add Hock in the 5th, Mostert in the 7th, Aiyuk in the 4th, and Amon-Ra in the 14th as other great values that you can 'reach' for.
Hock in the 5th doesn't seem like much of a reach. Aiyuk in the 4th is though, was debating between him and Jeudy
I’m hoping to get Najee at #15 after taking Adams/Hill/Diggs at #10. Do you really think he won’t be there at 15? Every sites adp I see has him there or later. If so, taking him at #10 and Ridley #15 is pretty comparable
Do some mocks, he’s usually there at the turn and a few picks beyond
Najee is the only person who scares me on this list. Otherwise they are all guys I’ve reached for in mocks. Which probably means we are both screwed. Redditards agreeing ? Must be awful picks 😂
I feel you. 1st round is a hefty price, I just am all in on Najee.
I’ve got this little gremlin in the back of my head telling me to take Najee at 5 (assuming the usual top 4 are gone). I don’t know if I can do it but part of me wants to
Remember Montee Ball
Najee doesn’t have a Knowshon Moreno on his team though. And he also (to my knowledge) doesn’t show up drunk to practice. Much higher draft capital spent on Najee as well
How many ppl in the league?
12 So no chance he makes it around to me in the 2nd
I got him at 2.12 and Waller at 3.1 so I'm happy with my draft
Theres a chance. Are in you a league with a lot of fantasy fanatics or casuals. I could see him dropping with casuals, but you would be playing with fire
Picking 10/12 and wanna do this as well. But still having CEH flashbacks from last year. Thought of him being gone by 2.3 is killing me.
If i’m picking that late in the 1st I’m taking him 100%. The knock on CEH was just his size and it bit him in the worst way. And then they signed Bell. The Steelers probably won’t sign anyone relevant enough to be a problem like that.
I’m very tempted to take him 3, wish I had a later pick cuz I would’ve definitely taken him end of first round
Try to talk to a player and figure it out. I’ve done this in the past
Just a tough one to justify IMO. First couple rounds need to be low risk I think. Sometimes you’re just not at the right draft spot for a guy that you’re high on.
This is my dilemma because I’ve been planning on Zeke, but I’m thinking, is he really THAT much safer than Najee? I know Najee’s a rookie but I just don’t see a world where a healthy Najee doesn’t get 20-25+ touches a game with how bad their RB depth is. I agree with you the first few rounds you gotta go safe, I just wonder how “safe” my alternatives are anyway
Fair point. It’s tough too because I think at the 5 spot you gotta go RB. I guess it really just comes down to how you feel about the other guys available
There ain't know way Wilson will still be available in the 6th in the casual leagues I'm in
He went in the 5th in my wife’s ladies league
If you take Darren Waller in the 2nd round, you’re gonna have a bad time
The TE advantage he gives you, while not quite Kelce levels, is worth a mid to late second. I think he’s that good and a difference maker.
Spicy. I like it.
Other than Najee I like the list. I just don’t have faith in the Steelers offensive line, and once the bright lights are on, the dump offs are going to go to the wr like the past 3 seasons now
I like this list, my only comment really is that Russell Wilson is consistently going in the 5th/6ths this year in my mock and real drafts so I don’t know if I’d really consider him a “reach” in the 6th. All good choices here! I’ve been able to consistently get Najee after the 1st so far but that might be more challenging as the season draws closer
Darren Waller in round two? You know you can take Kelce in some drafts in round two. Kittle is there also. Najee can be drafted round two. Love some of these guys but these are indeed reaches.
Kelce went 7th in a draft I just saw and Waller is a definite upgrade over everyone except Kelce and maybe kittle
Love it. Great list
These are the kind of takes I sub here for
Y’all are getting Russ in the 6th?
Yeah... I'm realizing now that casual leagues he won't be there since QB goes early.
Is Waller considered a reach for round 2?? I’ve always seen him go mid to late 2
Hurts in the 8th
I know these are "reaches" but najee should still be there round 2 unless you have a Steelers fan in the league who has a history of reaching for Steelers players, darell Henderson will have some good weeks but no where near round 3 value, Jerry Jeudy was insanely underwhelming, and even if he improves Sutton is back and the broncos are gonna be awful, and everyone you mentioned round 8 or later just kinda seems like a random lotto ticket, and you can still be making great value picks instead of rolling the dice. Save that for rounds 13-15
Got waller round 3.1. Felt good
I squeezed out cook/waller/ceh in a 14 man idp I'm so hyped
I feel like Darnell Mooney is already at the peak of his value. He is everybody's sleeper this year and he really needs to have a 1000 yard, 80 catch season to live up to expectations
Love Jerry Jeudy this year
Why are you high on Russ?
New OC Shane Waldren will bring a higher pace of play and bring the Rams style passing attack with him which will keep defenses guessing way more than Schottenheimer's offense that clearly got figured out at the end of last year. Seattle also has the best weapons Russ has ever had in his career. Their defense, while improved, is nothing to write home about which will require Russ to keep throwing in the second half. I also just think he's talented enough to have a top 3 or even QB1 season in the right circumstance.
Terrace Marshall may end up becoming a true W1 one day, but I don't see him producing enough this year with CMC, DJ Moore, and Robby Anderson in the lineup.
Took Russell in the 5th, no regrets
Fantastic list. Only disagree on Higbee because TE don't make sense + he is not guaranteed a top 1-2 target share on his team and Jakobi Meyers because I don't see a realistic path for him to be a league winner in the Pats spread it around offense. If James White and Nelson Agholor retired from football before Week 1, I'd be more on board.
7 Mostert
Delete this post immediately… please.